Author Topic: Big Dance  (Read 32861 times)

Offline rudy

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #300 on: November 22, 2019, 11:25:59 am »
a couple of very interesting games today for sweet 16. Calvin and NP could be a final 4 level game.



I agree both these games today are great matchups especially for the neutral. I have not seen any of these teams yet this season. Anyone know which team has the 6'6 striker with 20 goals? Luther...can this kid be the difference maker in this pod this weekend? On paper efverything looks good.

I know better than to look ahead but Messiah vs Amherst would be a much anticipated game Sunday. Hopefully it happens. Almost happened in 2017 at Messiah in elite 8 but ironically UR knocked out Amherst.. just like they knocked Messiah out last year to go to final 4.  Quite a weekend ahead!

Offline Flying Weasel

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #301 on: November 22, 2019, 12:07:15 pm »
Was just reviewing the team scoring statistics across D3. Here's what they look like this week:

Offense:

1    Bethany Lutheran    3.95
2    Oglethorpe       3.58
3    Gust. Adolphus       3.45
4    Wis.-Superior       3.43
5    PSU-B          3.29
6    Manhattanville       3.28
7    Pine Manor       3.24
8    Calvin          3.17
9    Eastern Conn. St.    3.15
10    Loras          3.05

Defense:

1    WPI                  .452
2    Ohio Wesleyan       .500
3    St. Joseph's (ME)    .503
4    Middlebury       .503
5    Claremont-M-S       .513
6    Chris. Newport       .536
7    Messiah               .579
8    Rose-Hulman       .585
9    UMass Boston       .602
10    Chicago               .636

It's not hard to see which factor is more important for getting to the tournament and moving forward. Exceptions to this pattern are also obvious.

Not surprisingly, Bethany Lutheran has the #2 goal scorer, Max Busch (25), and the #3T assist man, Luuk Oosterbosch (16). Never saw them play, but the bigger picture is clear from this salient fact: they lost 6-0 last month to Wisconsin-Superior, obviously an excellent team that defeated Central before losing in PKs to Luther last weekend. They obviously got gaudy stats by feasting on turkeys.

I'd suggest that the issue instead is that reliance on raw data provide less insight as to which teams have a good offense than as to who has a good defense.  Here are Massey's top 10 offensive teams as of this moment (Sweet 16 teams in bold):

1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Calvin
4. Messiah

5. Oglethorpe
6. Kenyon
7. GAC
8. NPU
9. W&L

10. Loras

Seven teams still in the tournament.  (Bethany Lutheran is #157.)

And here are Massey's top 10 defensive teams:

1. Midd
2. Conn College
3. CNU
4. JHU
5. CMS
6. F&M
7. Montclair St.
8. WPI
9. OWU
10. Wesleyan

Only four of these teams in the Sweet 16.

This!  I got side-tracked and didn't get back to share my additional thoughts yesterday.  But Buck O. has hit on it. 

It is much more probable and common that the "better" lower-tier teamsóweak teams that play in weak conferences with non-conference schedules full of lower-tier opponentsóput up high scoring stats than that they post stingy defensive stats. It only takes a couple games to destroy your season GAA while conversely a few low-scoring outputs can easily be made up for with some blow-outs or high-scoring affairs.  Consistency is much more crucial to achieving a low GAA, than to achieving a high GSA.  Using the Bethany Lutheran example, they had 7 shutout wins this season, and scored between 4 and 10 goals in those games.  Their 47 GF and 0 GA in those games yield 6.70 GSA : 0.00 GAA.  But one 6-0 loss to UMAC-leader UW-Superior undoes the GAA, but not the GSA: 47 GF : 6 GA yields 5.87 GSA : 0.75 GAA.

Bottom line, as Buck O. was getting at, when you look at raw stats that aren't adjusted for strength-of-schedule, a list of top scoring offenses will contain significantly more middle- to lower-tier teams than a list of stingy defenses.  A high-scoring offense does not necessarily equate to strong top-level offense.  Sure, a low GAA doesn't necessarily equate to a strong top-level defense either, but there's a much greater chance of there being a correlation.  So using the raw statistical rankings is a faulty basis for drawing any conclusions on whether offense or defense is more important for a deep NCAA tournament run.

Now, all that said, rarely is a team going to make a deep tournament run without a strong defense.  And it is less likely you can go deep without a strong defense than without a strong offense.  But, obviously, most teams that reach the Final Four are very good on both sides of the ball.  Any exceptions to this are more likely to be strong defenses carrying a modest attack, not the other way around.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 12:18:03 pm by Flying Weasel »

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #302 on: November 22, 2019, 02:17:45 pm »
Luther an interesting team. Look to be in a 4-3-3 and try to possess with their wingbacks wide taking the space left by all 3 of their midfielders being central. The 3 midfielders look highly technical and play well together and then try to connect to the target or wide. OWU looks athletic and set piece / long ball oriented

Offline Dubuquer

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #303 on: November 22, 2019, 02:18:00 pm »
As a Luther grad I've definitely got a favorite.  Keller is an impressive striker and has been fun to watch whenever the Norse come to Dubuque for games. He deserves his gaudy numbers. He's not (usually) flashy but he's always dangerous, especially with that height.  I haven't been as impressed with Luther overall this year but they will put up a fight.

a couple of very interesting games today for sweet 16. Calvin and NP could be a final 4 level game.



I agree both these games today are great matchups especially for the neutral. I have not seen any of these teams yet this season. Anyone know which team has the 6'6 striker with 20 goals? Luther...can this kid be the difference maker in this pod this weekend? On paper everything looks good.

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #304 on: November 22, 2019, 02:38:54 pm »
Luther actually in a 4-2-3-1 with the target but OWU has started to take control of the game as the Half has worn on. Luther opened the first 10 minutes looking good but they ran out of gas a bit. Both teams have had spurts and both teams with 1-2 dangerous chances. tight game

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #305 on: November 22, 2019, 03:39:56 pm »
First game of the Sweet 16 looks to be picking up right where we left off last weekend...0-0 heading to PK's....

Offline EB2319

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #306 on: November 22, 2019, 04:27:32 pm »
I caught the tail end of half 1 and thought Luther was very much on the front foot, but didn't really generate any chances.  OWU looked very organized and compact in the back. 

I then caught the tail end of half 2 and both OTs, and thought OWU looked much more dangerous.

If momentum means anything, I give the edge to OWU in PKs.

Offline blue_jays

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #307 on: November 22, 2019, 04:39:53 pm »
First rule of all PKs is ya gotta hit it with pace. And that was the difference in why Luther is going on and OWU is going home.

Offline Dubuquer

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #308 on: November 22, 2019, 04:50:40 pm »
...And Luther takes it in PKs.  Nice announcing, Greg!  I could tell during the replay that you wanted to say something about Davenport's full-body wiggle prior to the final PK that he stopped, or maybe you were just trying to suppress a laugh.

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #309 on: November 22, 2019, 04:53:49 pm »
First rule of all PKs is ya gotta hit it with pace. And that was the difference in why Luther is going on and OWU is going home.


well to be fair I think besides the 8th kicker OWU was fine.

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #310 on: November 22, 2019, 05:42:03 pm »
Calvin in its usual 4-3-3 and like Messiah they attack with 5 and unlike most college teams hold with only one. The off the ball movement especially by Calvin's midfield is really a pleasure to watch. North Park is legit in its own right and look to be a slightly more skilled side than their 2017 version.

Online Mr.Right

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #311 on: November 22, 2019, 06:11:05 pm »
Very good game. whoever said this would be like an NCAA Semi was right, North Park almost got the first goal of the day in this pod right b4 the Half. Last 20 minutes North Park controlled the ball but again did not generate many dangerous looks except in that last minute. Calvin not quite as strong but still a contender. North Park has 3-4 VERY good players surrounded by some athleticism. They are trying to play more than they did in 2017 IMO and are more of a technical team than they were...Still 0-0 though...

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #312 on: November 22, 2019, 06:19:24 pm »
Very good game. whoever said this would be like an NCAA Semi was right, North Park almost got the first goal of the day in this pod right b4 the Half. Last 20 minutes North Park controlled the ball but again did not generate many dangerous looks except in that last minute. Calvin not quite as strong but still a contender. North Park has 3-4 VERY good players surrounded by some athleticism. They are trying to play more than they did in 2017 IMO and are more of a technical team than they were...Still 0-0 though...

I thought NP had the better of the play and I am enjoying watching them more closely than previously during the season.  A lot of talent for sure.  And yet don't ya just have a feeling Calvin will figure out a way to win/advance? Should be a good 2nd half.

Offline mr_b

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #313 on: November 22, 2019, 07:20:23 pm »
It's going OT in Chicago.  North Park and Calvin are still scoreless after regulation.

Offline GoThunder1

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Re: Big Dance
« Reply #314 on: November 22, 2019, 07:47:55 pm »
Calvin wins 1-0. Tough loss for NP, as they were the better side.