WVB Fall 2021 Tournament Talk

[WLCALUM83]

10/20/21:  Very early Pool C projections, assuming the below-mentioned squads get upset in in-conference tournament play: (from top toughest schedule on down)
 
Team:                   Past Opposition Pct.      Future  Opposition Pct.      Cumulative Opposition Pct.
 
#  1 Johns Hopkins               0.678                           0.646                      0.672                           
#10 Juniata                         0.677                            0.658                       0.673
#22 U of Chicago                 0.669                            0.618                        0.662
#24 Tufts                            0.663                            0.694                        0.670   
#  3 Trinity-TX                      0.663                           0.583                        0.647
#11 UW-Eau Claire              0.628                             0.596                         0.622
#18 MIT                              0.625                            0.766                         0.657
#  9 UW-Whitewater             0.622                            0.491                        0.597
#25 GAC                             0.616                            0.483                         0.591
#15 Berry                           0.605                            0.773                          0.635
#  6 Calvin                          0.597                            0.661                          0.610
#21 UW-Stevens Pt.            0.597                              0.496                        0.575
#  5 Wartburg                      0.588                             0.627                          0.593
#20 Otterbein                      0.586                             0.460                           0.563
#23 Bethel-MN                    0.584                              0.645                           0.596
#13 NYU                             0.577                              0.571                           0.576
#  4 Hope                            0.575                             0.798                           0.619
#  2 CMS                             0.574                             0.635                           0.592
#  7 CC                               0.568                              0.620                            0.580
#12 Emory                         0.563                               0.783                            0.617
#19 UCSC                           0.556                              0.167                            0.549
#16 SW-TX                         0.553                               0.647                             0.572
#17 NW-MN                        0.537                               0.505                             0.527
#14 ONU                            0.525                               0.831                              0.613
#  8 UMHB                          0.456                               0.524                              0.469                                         

3 UAA squads, 2 SCAC squads, 2 MIAA, 3 WIAC (6 of these squads may end up in Pool C. Depending on how many conference tournament upsets there are, this could really get interesting.

[WLCALUM83]

Region IX Conference Tournament Underdogs to Watch For:

MIAC:  Hamline
UMAC: Martin Luther
Amer Rivers: Simpson
Midwest Conference:  Monmouth

11/7/2021:  None left, all have been eliminated.

[WLCALUM83]

North Atlantic Conference Tournament:

"How the Numbers Stack Up"

Maine Maritime was 16th in the nation in Avg. Service Aces/Set (2.87), had 10.45 assists/set, had the highest hitting pct. of all NAC squads, and averaged 11.13 spike points/set. SUNY-Delhi was 2nd in the nation in opponent's hitting pct. (.075) and Maine Maritime 14th (.093). Cobleskill State had the most total team blocks (124), Avg blocks/set (1.38) and led the conference in total digs (1,540). SUNY-Delhi led the NAC in most other team stats.

Individual Players to Watch:

Cobleskill's Mackenzie Larson (4th in the nation in avg aces per set with 0.94 and led the nation with 85 service aces.)
ME-Maritime's Rachel Melampy (2nd in nation in spike points/set with 5.32)
NVU-Johnson's Mason Lores (16th in avg aces per set with 0.75)

NAC squad already doing better  than expected: Cazenovia (which wasn't picked to make the tournament).

Today's Match-ups:
ME-Presque Isle/ME-Maritime and Husson/NVU Johnson in the East:
Cazenovia/SUNY-Delhi and SUNY-Poly/Cobleskill in the West:

(This one's starting off earlier than the rest,)

[WLCALUM83]

Top NAC Division Seeds ME-Maritime and SUNY-Delhi both advanced, so no tournament upsets just yet.Sa

10/31 Upset Alert: #2 NAC West Seed SUNY-Cobleskill upset #1 Seed SUNY-Delhi in 3 sets in a NAC
                                            Semi- Final Match today.

                               It's a Cobleskill/#1 NAC East Seed Maine Maritime NAC Conference Final next
                                                           Saturday

11/1:  No upsets today. Arcadia won the MAC Freedom play in match
                                   Messiah won the MAC Commonwealth play in match.

11/2:  Little East Conference:  Mild Upset #5 ECSU over #4 WCSU in 5 sets.
          SUNYAC Mild Upset: #5 New Paltz over #4 Fredonia in 3 sets.
          NEWMAC Mild Upset:  #5 Springfield over #4 Emerson in 4 sets.
          Skyline:  #5 MSV over #4 MSM in 5 sets.
          TCCC: #5 Salve Regina knocked off #4 Wentworth in 5 sets.

 Major Upsets:  TCCC:    #6 UNE upset #3 Gordon in 4 sets.
                   NACC:  #6 IL Tech upset #3 Benedictine in 5 sets.

              GNAC:  Simmons needed 5 sets to knock off Lasell and avoid a major upset.

11/3:  Centennial:  #5 Gettysburg over #4 Franklin and Marshall in 3 sets.
                                                Gettysburg gets Johns Hopkins next.
          Landmark:  #3 Scranton over #2 Elizabethtown in 4 sets.
                                    Scranton gets Juniata next for the Landmark AQ .

11/4:  Amer. SW:  #5 Sul Ross State over #4 ETBU in 3 sets.
          Little East MAJOR UPSET:  #5 ECSU over #1 Plymouth State in 4 sets.

11/5  Liberty League:  #4 St. Lawrence over #1 RIT in 5 sets.
         USA South;  Meredith over #1 Maryville-TN in 5 sets
         C2C:  Salisbury over ranked UC-Santa Cruz in 4 sets.
         United East Conference:  #4 Morrisville State over #1 PSU-Berks in 5 sets.   

11/6:  NCAC:  Wooster upsets #1 Denison in 4 sets (leaving the door open for Wittenberg again).
          Amer. SW: UT-Dallas over Mary  Hardin-Baylor
          MIAC:  GAC over Bethel-MN 
          MASCAC: Framingham State over Worcester Stater
          GNAC:  J&W-RI over Rivier
          CCIW:    IL Wes over Carthage
          NESCAC:  Wesleyan-CT over Tufts

11/7:  HCAC: TU over Earlham
         
                 

[WLCALUM83]

1st Conference Championship Match:

CUNYAC:  #1 Brooklyn and #2 Hunter will have at it tomorrow evening for the AQ.

[WLCALUM83]

NCAA D3 Tournament AQ's are:

CUNYAC:  Brooklyn
NWC:       Whitworth (won reg. season conference)

Berths to be decided tomorrow (11/6)

Amer. Rivers:  #4 Wartburg/Coe
Amer. SW:  #13 Mary-Hardin Baylor/UT-Dallas
Atlantic East:  Cabrini/Marymount VA
C2C:  CNU/Salisbury
CCIW:  Carthage/IL Wesleyan
CSAC:  Cedar Crest/Notre Dame, MD
TCCC:  Endicott/Roger Williams
MAC-Commonwealth:  Stevenson/Eastern-PA   
Empire 8:  St. John Fisher/Nazareth
MAC-Freedom:  DeSales/Stevens
GNAC:  Rivier/Johnson & Wales-RI
Landmark:  #9 Juniata/Scranton
Liberty League:  Clarkson/St. Lawrence
Little East:  UMass-Boston/ECSU
MASCAC:  Worcester State/Framingham State
MIAA:  #5 Hope/#6 Calvin*
MWC:  Grinnell/Cornell-IA
MIAC: #19 Bethel-MN/#25 GAC
NJAC:  Rowan/Montclair State
North Atl:  ME Maritime/SUNY-Cobleskill
NCAC:  (4 squads still alive yet)
NACC:  Aurora/Concordia-WI
OAC:    #17 ONU/#24 Otterbein
PAC:  Westminster-PA/Bethany-WVA
Skyline:  USMMA/Manhattanville
SCIAC:   #3 CMS/Chapman
SLIAC:   4 teams still alive yet.
SUNYAC:  Cortland St./Geneseo St.
United East:  Gaulladet/Morisville St.
UAA: #11 NYU/#14 Emory*
UMAC: #15 NW-MN/MN-Morris
USA South:  Southern VA/Meredith
WIAC: #10 UW-Eau Claire/#8 UW-Whitewater*

*- great chance both squads in the match are locks no matter who wins

11/7:

NESCAC:  Wes/CT/Bowdoin
AMCC:  Alfred St./PSU/Behrend
HCAC:  TU/Earlham
Centennial:  Haverford/Johns Hopkins
ODAC:   W&L/VA Wesleyan
NEWMAC:  MIT/Springfield
SCAC:  Trinity-TX/SW-TX
SAA:  Berry/BSC
 


 

[WLCALUM83]

NAtl.  ME Maritime gets the 3rd qualifier
GNAC:  Johnson & Wales-RI gets this conference's AQ.
TCCC:  Endicott is in.
UAA:   NYU is in.
OAC:  ONU is in.
LEC:  UMass-Boston is in.
NJAC:  Rowan is in.
United East:  Gallaudet is in.
C2C: Christopher Newport
USA South:  Southern VA
MAC-Commonwealth:  Eastern-PA
MAC-Freedom:  Stevens
SUNYAC:  Cortland State
Atll. East:  Cabrini
PAC:  Westminster-PA
Amer. SW:  UT-Dallas
CSAC:  Cedar Crest
Midwest Conference;  Cornell-IA
Empire 8:  St. John Fisher
Liberty League:  Clarkson
MASCAC:  Framingham State
Amer. Rivers:  Wartburg
Skyline:  USMMA
Landmark:  Juniata
NCAC:  Wittenberg
SCIAC:  CMS
MIAA:  Calvin
NACC:  Aurora
MIAC:  GAC
WIAC:  UW-Eau Claire
UMAC:  NW-MN
CCIW:  IL Wesleyan
SLIAC:  Greenville-IL
USA South:  Southern VA

11/7:

NESCAC:  Bowdoin
NEWMAC:  MIT
ODAC:   W&L
AMCC:   PSU-Behrend
Centennial:  Johns Hopkins (just keeps on winning)
SAA:  Berry
SCAC:  Trinity-TX
HCAC:  Transylvania

 

[WLCALUM83]

Teams in good shape for Pool C Bids;

Emory
Hope
UW-Whitewater
Tufts (even with yesterday's loss)
Southwestern-TX

Teams sweating it out a bit:

UW-Stevens Point
Otterbein
Amherst
Denison
Babson
UW-La Crosse
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Colorado College
Bethel
Carthage
Concordia-WI
U of Chicago
Earlham
Haverford
BSC

[WLCALUM83]

My Pool C Guesses:

UW-Whitewater
UW-Stevens Pt.
Bethel-MN
Hope
Otterbein
Denison
BSC
SW-TX
Haverford
Earlham
Emory
U of Chicago
Mary Hardin-Baylor (1 of last 4 in)
Colorado College
Babson
Tufts
Wesleyan CT
Scranton
Rivier
Muskingum

(Figuring I'm going to be wrong on at least half-a-dozen of these guesses.)

[Ron Boerger]

Sure would be nice if the NCAA would actually have a link to the selection show that's supposed to be happening right now.   The "how to watch" only says "live here on NCAA.com" but there's no broadcast link.   How typical.

Link just popped at top of screen:   https://www.ncaa.com/video/volleyball-women/2021-11-08/diii-womens-volleyball-2021-selection-show-2?utm_campaign=trending

[Ron Boerger]

Sure would be nice if the NCAA would actually have a link to the selection show that's supposed to be happening right now.   The "how to watch" only says "live here on NCAA.com" but there's no broadcast link.   How typical.

Link just popped at top of screen:   https://www.ncaa.com/video/volleyball-women/2021-11-08/diii-womens-volleyball-2021-selection-show-2?utm_campaign=trending

@MIT (26-3, regional host)
Eastern Nazarene (17-10)

Haverford (23-5, C)
UMass Boston (14-12)

Susquehanna (22-6, Pool C)
Maine-Maritime (20-6)

Bowdoin (22-4)
Johnson & Wales (20-9)

----------------------------------------------------

@RIT (24-4, Regional Host, Pool C)
Framingham St (16-15)

Wesleyan CT (17-6, Pool C)
Scranton (25-7)

Babson (22-7, Pool C)
Endicott (21-8)

Juniata (28-1)
Gallaudet (21-11)

----------------------------------------------------

@Johns Hopkins (29-0, Regional Host)
Cabrini (14-17)

Rowan (27-5)
Springfield (22-7, Pool C)

Tufts (18-5, Pool C)
Eastern (24-5)

SUNY Cortland (26-3)
Merchant Marine (22-3)

----------------------------------------------------

Berry (25-2, top seed but NOT HOSTING)
Transylvania (23-12)

Southwestern TX (24-5, Pool C)   <-- this means Trinity gets screwed out of hosting too
Washington & Lee (26-7)

Christopher Newport (22-9)
UT - Dallas (17-9)

@Emory (23-5, Pool C, but they still get to host.  Bull****!)
Southern Virginia (28-4)

----------------------------------------------------

@Calvin (27-3, Regional Host)
PSU-Behrend (22-5)

Wittenberg (21-8)
St. John Fisher (26-4)

Otterbein (23-5)
Westminster PA (22-4)
 
UW-Whitewater (26-2)
Rhodes

----------------------------------------------------

@UW - Eau Claire (29-3, Regional Host)
Greenville (24-6)

Gustavus Adolphus (26-5)
Chicago (17-9)

Northwestern-St. Paul (29-3)
Illinois Wesleyan (19-12)

Hope (23-4, Pool C)
Whitworth (21-2)

----------------------------------------------------

@Wartburg (27-0, Regional Host)
Cornell College (20-11)

Ohio Northern (22-5)
Colorado College (29-5)

UW Stephens Point (26-7, Pool C)
Bethel (22-6, Pool C)

C-M-S (27-1, also screwed out of hosting, thank you NCAA cheapskates)
Aurora (20-8)

----------------------------------------------------

NYU (26-1, another top seed not hosting)
Brooklyn (16-12)

Clarkson (19-9)
Stevenson (26-6, Pool C)

@Stevens (26-5, how the hell did they end up hosting)
Middlebury

Trinity (TX) (31-2) screwed out of hosting AND a #1 seed somehow, bravo NCAA
Cedar Crest (20-5)

[WLCALUM83]

My Pool C Guesses:

UW-Whitewater
UW-Stevens Pt.
Bethel-MN
Hope
Otterbein
Denison
BSC
SW-TX
Haverford
Earlham
Emory
U of Chicago
Mary Hardin-Baylor (1 of last 4 in)
Colorado College
Babson
Tufts
Wesleyan CT
Scranton
Rivier
Muskingum

(Figuring I'm going to be wrong on at least half-a-dozen of these guesses.)

I was wrong on Denison, BSC, Earlham, Mary Hardin Baylor, Rivier and Muskingum. (Didn't expect RIT to get in, and for some reason, I also thought fewer NESCAC teams would get in.) Wasn't sure on E Nazarene as well.

[WLCALUM83]

Sure would be nice if the NCAA would actually have a link to the selection show that's supposed to be happening right now.   The "how to watch" only says "live here on NCAA.com" but there's no broadcast link.   How typical.

Link just popped at top of screen:   https://www.ncaa.com/video/volleyball-women/2021-11-08/diii-womens-volleyball-2021-selection-show-2?utm_campaign=trending

@MIT (26-3, regional host)
Eastern Nazarene (17-10)

Haverford (23-5, C)
UMass Boston (14-12)

Susquehanna (22-6, Pool C)
Maine-Maritime (20-6)

Bowdoin (22-4)
Johnson & Wales (20-9)

----------------------------------------------------

@RIT (24-4, Regional Host, Pool C)
Framingham St (16-15)

Wesleyan CT (17-6, Pool C)
Scranton (25-7)

Babson (22-7, Pool C)
Endicott (21-8)

Juniata (28-1)
Gallaudet (21-11)

----------------------------------------------------

@Johns Hopkins (29-0, Regional Host)
Cabrini (14-17)

Rowan (27-5)
Springfield (22-7, Pool C)

Tufts (18-5, Pool C)
Eastern (24-5)

SUNY Cortland (26-3)
Merchant Marine (22-3)

----------------------------------------------------

Berry (25-2, top seed but NOT HOSTING)
Transylvania (23-12)

Southwestern TX (24-5, Pool C)   <-- this means Trinity gets screwed out of hosting too
Washington & Lee (26-7)

Christopher Newport (22-9)
UT - Dallas (17-9)

@Emory (23-5, Pool C, but they still get to host.  Bull****!)
Southern Virginia (28-4)

----------------------------------------------------

@Calvin (27-3, Regional Host)
PSU-Behrend (22-5)

Wittenberg (21-8)
St. John Fisher (26-4)

Otterbein (23-5)
Westminster PA (22-4)
 
UW-Whitewater (26-2)
Rhodes

----------------------------------------------------

@UW - Eau Claire (29-3, Regional Host)
Greenville (24-6)

Gustavus Adolphus (26-5)
Chicago (17-9)

Northwestern-St. Paul (29-3)
Illinois Wesleyan (19-12)

Hope (23-4, Pool C)
Whitworth (21-2)

----------------------------------------------------

@Wartburg (27-0, Regional Host)
Cornell College (20-11)

Ohio Northern (22-5)
Colorado College (29-5)

UW Stephens Point (26-7, Pool C)
Bethel (22-6, Pool C)

C-M-S (27-1, also screwed out of hosting, thank you NCAA cheapskates)
Aurora (20-8)

----------------------------------------------------

NYU (26-1, another top seed not hosting)
Brooklyn (16-12)

Clarkson (19-9)
Stevenson (26-6, Pool C)

@Stevens (26-5, how the hell did they end up hosting)
Middlebury

Trinity (TX) (31-2) screwed out of hosting AND a #1 seed somehow, bravo NCAA
Cedar Crest (20-5)

MIT region:
Host squad and Bowdoin are the top 2 here, rankings wise.

RIT region:
Juniata is the on-paper favorite.

Johns Hopkins region:
Home squad same as Juniata above.

UW-Eau Claire region:
Potential for host squad vs. Hope match-up down the road (Look out for GAC or U of Chicago)

Emory region:
Emory/Berry final would be awesome if it got to that point.( Look out for Transylvania, got hot again at HCAC's, perhaps that squad pulls off an upset???)

Calvin region: (Here's were they get more loaded)
Calvin and UW-Whitewater are the strongest squads here, but I wouldn't be surprised by several mild upsets. (Host Knights could get Wittenberg-again-in the 2nd round)

Wartburg region: 
Host squad and CMS would be the potentially strongest matchup here, but the Knights will have to knock off either ONU or CC in the 2nd round.

Stevens region:
NYU and Trinity-TX could potentially meet down the road here. Clarkson and Middlebury are others to primarily watch for.

IMHO, Calvin, Wartburg and UW-Eau Claire are the 3 toughest regions (one could make a strong case for Emory as well.)

['95 Blugold]

Sure would be nice if the NCAA would actually have a link to the selection show that's supposed to be happening right now.   The "how to watch" only says "live here on NCAA.com" but there's no broadcast link.   How typical.

Link just popped at top of screen:   https://www.ncaa.com/video/volleyball-women/2021-11-08/diii-womens-volleyball-2021-selection-show-2?utm_campaign=trending

@MIT (26-3, regional host)
Eastern Nazarene (17-10)

Haverford (23-5, C)
UMass Boston (14-12)

Susquehanna (22-6, Pool C)
Maine-Maritime (20-6)

Bowdoin (22-4)
Johnson & Wales (20-9)

----------------------------------------------------

@RIT (24-4, Regional Host, Pool C)
Framingham St (16-15)

Wesleyan CT (17-6, Pool C)
Scranton (25-7)

Babson (22-7, Pool C)
Endicott (21-8)

Juniata (28-1)
Gallaudet (21-11)

----------------------------------------------------

@Johns Hopkins (29-0, Regional Host)
Cabrini (14-17)

Rowan (27-5)
Springfield (22-7, Pool C)

Tufts (18-5, Pool C)
Eastern (24-5)

SUNY Cortland (26-3)
Merchant Marine (22-3)

----------------------------------------------------

Berry (25-2, top seed but NOT HOSTING)
Transylvania (23-12)

Southwestern TX (24-5, Pool C)   <-- this means Trinity gets screwed out of hosting too
Washington & Lee (26-7)

Christopher Newport (22-9)
UT - Dallas (17-9)

@Emory (23-5, Pool C, but they still get to host.  Bull****!)
Southern Virginia (28-4)

----------------------------------------------------

@Calvin (27-3, Regional Host)
PSU-Behrend (22-5)

Wittenberg (21-8)
St. John Fisher (26-4)

Otterbein (23-5)
Westminster PA (22-4)
 
UW-Whitewater (26-2)
Rhodes

----------------------------------------------------

@UW - Eau Claire (29-3, Regional Host)
Greenville (24-6)

Gustavus Adolphus (26-5)
Chicago (17-9)

Northwestern-St. Paul (29-3)
Illinois Wesleyan (19-12)

Hope (23-4, Pool C)
Whitworth (21-2)

----------------------------------------------------

@Wartburg (27-0, Regional Host)
Cornell College (20-11)

Ohio Northern (22-5)
Colorado College (29-5)

UW Stephens Point (26-7, Pool C)
Bethel (22-6, Pool C)

C-M-S (27-1, also screwed out of hosting, thank you NCAA cheapskates)
Aurora (20-8)

----------------------------------------------------

NYU (26-1, another top seed not hosting)
Brooklyn (16-12)

Clarkson (19-9)
Stevenson (26-6, Pool C)

@Stevens (26-5, how the hell did they end up hosting)
Middlebury

Trinity (TX) (31-2) screwed out of hosting AND a #1 seed somehow, bravo NCAA
Cedar Crest (20-5)

MIT region:
Host squad and Bowdoin are the top 2 here, rankings wise.

RIT region:
Juniata is the on-paper favorite.

Johns Hopkins region:
Home squad same as Juniata above.

UW-Eau Claire region:
Potential for host squad vs. Hope match-up down the road (Look out for GAC or U of Chicago)

Emory region:
Emory/Berry final would be awesome if it got to that point.( Look out for Transylvania, got hot again at HCAC's, perhaps that squad pulls off an upset???)

Calvin region: (Here's were they get more loaded)
Calvin and UW-Whitewater are the strongest squads here, but I wouldn't be surprised by several mild upsets. (Host Knights could get Wittenberg-again-in the 2nd round)

Wartburg region: 
Host squad and CMS would be the potentially strongest matchup here, but the Knights will have to knock off either ONU or CC in the 2nd round.

Stevens region:
NYU and Trinity-TX could potentially meet down the road here. Clarkson and Middlebury are others to primarily watch for.

IMHO, Calvin, Wartburg and UW-Whitewater are the 3 toughest regions (one could make a strong case for Emory as well.)

Did you mean the UW-Eau Claire region as Whitewater is in the Calvin region?

Interesting observation for the Blugolds in the Eau Claire Region as they have faced 6 of the 7 other teams in their region this year. They did not meet up against Whitworth.

9/1/2021 Northwestern - Won 3-0
9/18/2021 GAC - Won 3-2
10/2/2021 Greenville - Won 3-2
10/9/2021 Chicago - Won 3-2
10/9/2021 Hope - Lost 0-3
10/16/2021 Ill. Wesleyan - Won 3-1

[WLCALUM83]

Thanks for catching the error, it's been corrected.

(The Hope loss is no disgrace--seems Hope and Calvin don't rebuild--they reload