I am not sure what to think about the Bell game this week. While NCC is objectively not as dominant this year I do know they don't beat themselves, you have to go win it. Through 4 games they have turned it over only 3 times, given up just 2 sacks, and are 100% in the redzone on offense (17-17 with 13 TDs). They aren't going to make mistakes. Their run game is not as prolific (4.9 yd per carry vs 6.4 last year, 200 yds per game vs 260 last year. Garret Wilson is throwing more as a result and his numbers are slightly off the pace of a year ago. They also have only gone for it on 4th down 2x this year when they averaged 1-2x a game last year. They have just 5 explosive runs of 20+ yds so far this year, well off their usual production. But through the air they have 13 explosive plays. Their main horse on offense is David Ballard III and he has been highly productive. On defense Medina is elite and has been dominant but the defense overall has given up 12 explosive pass plays and 105 yds per game on the ground (vs 75 ypg last year.
None of this is catasrophic, it just means they have been less dominant so far.
Wheaton's biggest change is on defense where they are a top 20 unit and have only given up 1 run of over 20 yds all season. Zeke Harris is as good a LB as you will see in D3 and their safeties are really good combined with a front that has been really good agains the run. The Wheaton offense hasn't been as productive this year which has manifest itself mainly on 3rd down (53% a year ago vs 42% this year). Forcucci had thrown for 18 TD's through 5 games last year and has just 11 this year. All that and NCC shut out Wheaton last year.
He will have to have his most productive game as a member of the Thunder for this to be close. If Wheaton wins they will have to find ways to get more possessions (turnovers, stops, kicking game) and manufacture 4+ scores while somehow limiting Wilson and the NCC offense to a much lower output than they have so far. A tall task given this NCC team, while shorter on star power, doesn't make too many mistakes.
None of this is catasrophic, it just means they have been less dominant so far.
Wheaton's biggest change is on defense where they are a top 20 unit and have only given up 1 run of over 20 yds all season. Zeke Harris is as good a LB as you will see in D3 and their safeties are really good combined with a front that has been really good agains the run. The Wheaton offense hasn't been as productive this year which has manifest itself mainly on 3rd down (53% a year ago vs 42% this year). Forcucci had thrown for 18 TD's through 5 games last year and has just 11 this year. All that and NCC shut out Wheaton last year.
He will have to have his most productive game as a member of the Thunder for this to be close. If Wheaton wins they will have to find ways to get more possessions (turnovers, stops, kicking game) and manufacture 4+ scores while somehow limiting Wilson and the NCC offense to a much lower output than they have so far. A tall task given this NCC team, while shorter on star power, doesn't make too many mistakes.