Quote from: Machiavelli on August 31, 2026, 11:00:19 AMOn that note, that same article on the front page has 5 people picking the NESCAC to make it to the Round of 16, so take it all with a grain of salt. Depending on what kind of favorable draw the committee hands the NESCAC donors, if they face a real team at any point, I think they get physically beaten down, but that's just me.

The committee doesn't have much leeway on the draw for the playoffs now that the NPI governs everything. I would absolutely favor a 9-0 NESCAC team in many round of 32 games in that part of the country, though, and with a first-round bye that would be all it would take to get to the round of 16.

Now that the NESCAC is in the NCAA tournament, I think the chance of a second LL team making the playoffs is significantly diminished. I do think that future potential matchups in the NCAAs between the LL and NESCAC could be very interesting especially for RPI and Union who wish they were in the NESCAC anyway  

Theoretically, every team's chances are diminished by 1 in 12 or so thanks to the NESCAC finally claiming its rightful automatic bid.

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 31, 2026, 09:41:03 PMTheoretically, every team's chances are diminished by 1 in 12 or so thanks to the NESCAC finally claiming its rightful automatic bid.

But practically, the NESCAC's autobid is mostly likely to bump an 8-2 team with a good but not great SOS, which are the schools that sit mid-30s in end-of-year NPI. That's prime LL runner-up territory.

I actually think the impact is more significant, because an 8-1 NESCAC runner-up is basically a lock for an at large bid under NPI.  The NESCAC has beat up on each other the last few years, but a one loss runner up is historically pretty common.  Also easy to imagine a scenario where three teams tied at 8-1 at the top produces three bids.

FWIW I am totally pro NESCAC getting bids.

Quote from: unionpalooza on September 01, 2026, 10:53:49 AM

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 31, 2026, 09:41:03 PMTheoretically, every team's chances are diminished by 1 in 12 or so thanks to the NESCAC finally claiming its rightful automatic bid.

But practically, the NESCAC's autobid is mostly likely to bump an 8-2 team with a good but not great SOS, which are the schools that sit mid-30s in end-of-year NPI. That's prime LL runner-up territory.

I actually think the impact is more significant, because an 8-1 NESCAC runner-up is basically a lock for an at large bid under NPI.  The NESCAC has beat up on each other the last few years, but a one loss runner up is historically pretty common.  Also easy to imagine a scenario where three teams tied at 8-1 at the top produces three bids.

FWIW I am totally pro NESCAC getting bids.
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The NESCAC recruits some great HS athletes, so I'm sure they will do well in the playoffs. I am pro NESCAC in the playoffs, but what if they don't start off well? I would think their NPI ratings are highly sensitive to their success in the NCAA playoffs.It will be interesting and should perhaps even out the power in the D3 regional comparisons if the NASCAC is successful. Could Trinity(CT) be the next Cortland and bring the Trophy back East? I'm all for that.

Quote from: Bartman on September 01, 2026, 11:49:32 AM

Quote from: unionpalooza on September 01, 2026, 10:53:49 AM

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 31, 2026, 09:41:03 PMTheoretically, every team's chances are diminished by 1 in 12 or so thanks to the NESCAC finally claiming its rightful automatic bid.

But practically, the NESCAC's autobid is mostly likely to bump an 8-2 team with a good but not great SOS, which are the schools that sit mid-30s in end-of-year NPI. That's prime LL runner-up territory.

I actually think the impact is more significant, because an 8-1 NESCAC runner-up is basically a lock for an at large bid under NPI.  The NESCAC has beat up on each other the last few years, but a one loss runner up is historically pretty common.  Also easy to imagine a scenario where three teams tied at 8-1 at the top produces three bids.

FWIW I am totally pro NESCAC getting bids.
[/quote}
The NESCAC recruits some great HS athletes, so I'm sure they will do well in the playoffs. I am pro NESCAC in the playoffs, but what if they don't start off well? I would think their NPI ratings are highly sensitive to their success in the NCAA playoffs.It will be interesting and should perhaps even out the power in the D3 regional comparisons if the NASCAC is successful. Could Trinity(CT) be the next Cortland and bring the Trophy back East? I'm all for that.

The NPI is just a function of winning percentage and strength of schedule, so in a closed league like the NESCAC they will do just fine.  I think it is just a matter of time before one or two schools in that league decide to shift a bunch of their preferred admissions slots to football and use the brute force of a massive endowment to be nationally competitive, as has happened in almost every sport. Probably Trinity, who already prioritizes football a good bit anyway.

It's been a while, but those NESCAC teams historically were pretty good when they played out of conference. Union's 1983 Stagg Bowl team lost to Middlebury that year. Their 1984 semifinal team lost to Hamilton that year. 

Yeah, I'm not sure Cortland is really a model for anything. It's the most random Stagg Bowl ever*.

*I'm not talking about their games or their path. Lots of teams win playoff games they probably could have lost, or benefit from opponent injuries or a break in the bracket somewhere else. My user name might be very different had the Bombers faced a team's QB1 in the Stagg Bowl in 1988 or 1991 (Or an actual QB at all in 1988)

If you look at Cortland's "Big 4" (Boyes at QB, Burgess and Lapp at WR, and AlfanoStJohn at RB), here's what COVID gave them in 2023

Boyes: Junior
Alfano St. John: Junior
Lapp: 5th year senior
Burgess: 6th year senior -- not only did he get the COVID year, but he was suspended for the 2021 season for violating COVID gathering rules in 2020

In a world without Covid, Burgess is a senior in 2021, while Boyes is still a backup and Lapp is a senior in 2022, when Boyes was getting eaten alive by Ithaca's defense and roundly outplayed by A.J. Wingfield in front of 40,000 people at Yankee Stadium. (Stagg Bowls happen every year. But until a WIAC rivalry game plays in a bigger stadium or the two Hardins' go somewhere else, the two most-attended D3 games ever will still be games where Cortland lost to Ithaca)

I know I may sound like a bitter IC fan -- though many of you will recall me defending Boyes as the best QB in the country -- but their season really was the conclusion to a bizarre set of circumstances that led to their roster being in the perfect shape

Quote from: IC798891 on September 01, 2026, 07:05:28 PMYeah, I'm not sure Cortland is really a model for anything. It's the most random Stagg Bowl ever*.

*I'm not talking about their games or their path. Lots of teams win playoff games they probably could have lost, or benefit from opponent injuries or a break in the bracket somewhere else. My user name might be very different had the Bombers faced a team's QB1 in the Stagg Bowl in 1988 or 1991 (Or an actual QB at all in 1988)

If you look at Cortland's "Big 4" (Boyes at QB, Burgess and Lapp at WR, and AlfanoStJohn at RB), here's what COVID gave them in 2023

Boyes: Junior
Alfano St. John: Junior
Lapp: 5th year senior
Burgess: 6th year senior -- not only did he get the COVID year, but he was suspended for the 2021 season for violating COVID gathering rules in 2020

In a world without Covid, Burgess is a senior in 2021, while Boyes is still a backup and Lapp is a senior in 2022, when Boyes was getting eaten alive by Ithaca's defense and roundly outplayed by A.J. Wingfield in front of 40,000 people at Yankee Stadium. (Stagg Bowls happen every year. But until a WIAC rivalry game plays in a bigger stadium or the two Hardins' go somewhere else, the two most-attended D3 games ever will still be games where Cortland lost to Ithaca)

I know I may sound like a bitter IC fan -- though many of you will recall me defending Boyes as the best QB in the country -- but their season really was the conclusion to a bizarre set of circumstances that led to their roster being in the perfect shape

IC, you're shamelessly minimizing the accomplishments of a rival, and I want to make clear I'm 100% here for it.  Love to see it.  I'd +k if that was still a thing.  I hope the WIAC guys are currently trolling UWRF for Matt Walker for crapping out against a bad D2 school in his first game at Drake. 



On Cortland, I'll just add that, in addition, no East team has ever gotten a playoff path like Cortland had that year.  Their Stagg journey ran through Endicott, Grove City, Alma and Randolph-Macon; all solid programs, sure, but not exactly world-beaters.  (Not even perennial playoff teams back then.)  Kudos to Cortland for handling them and then willing off the NCC upset, but yeah, it was not remotely a normal year. 

I think the one way in which Cortland is a model is it showed that the reward for being a non-NCC/Mount Union/UWW Stagg Bowl winner is your coach is gonna get poached by an FCS team.  Even a couple of good runs is enough (e.g., Perkovich to Albany).  Heck, at Union or Ithaca, a couple of playoff wins may do it. I have to think even Spencer is gone from NCC if they win another title this year.

I absolutely hate on Cortland athletics, but I was rooting for them in 2023 because I think it was good, COVID or not, to show an East team making a run. Cortland should wave that flag high and put the rings on the middle fingers they use to flip off the haters of that run.

After all, much like Pacific Lutheran doesn't need to apologize for their title in 1999 where Rowan checked out after beating Mount Union in the semis, it ain't Cortland's fault Mount Union's defense decided 55 minutes of football was enough against Alma. (I'm a Falcons fan, and even for me, that collapse was LOL hilariously bad.)

But yeah, Burgess and Lapp weren't just two fringe NFL caliber players -- though that's high enough praise -- they were fringe NFL caliber players in their 5th and 6th years of college football. And not due to injuries that might have negative impacts on athleticism. They had a level of experience you'd never see. Burgess was a first-team all conference kick returner in 2018 for crying out loud, and was like, two months away from being 24 when they won the Stagg. He'd have earned a PhD if Cortland offered them. That's Dr. Burgess, if you please.

It was, in some ways, men against boys. (Boyes?) Endicott should have finished 2nd in the country just for mostly shutting those two down, loss or no loss (I'm kidding...but still)

And yeah, other teams may have had a few of those guys on their rosters in 2023, but the odds of it being concentrated on one position like that...unheard of.

So, looking at the Alfred roster for the upcoming Friday night game against Hobart , I see that Mathew Parker (ex Ithaca Bomber Captain in 2025) has transferred , as a Senior , to Alfred and I assume will be their starting QB. Parker had some pretty good games at Ithaca, including crushing Alfred with his passing efficiency last season. I'd be interested in any insights on this decision, as I don't think I've seen a team Captain as a Junior transfer . Maybe I missed this story.
EDIT?UPDATE: I now can see Reed became the starter after the loss to Union in 2025, and Parker entered the transfer portal last December. He beat Hobart last year at Ithaca, hopefully he doesn't repeat it this year for Alfred.

Quote from: Bartman on September 02, 2026, 08:39:24 AMSo, looking at the Alfred roster for the upcoming Friday night game against Hobart , I see that Mathew Parker (ex Ithaca Bomber Captain in 2025) has transferred , as a Senior , to Alfred and I assume will be their starting QB. Parker had some pretty good games at Ithaca, including crushing Alfred with his passing efficiency last season. I'd be interested in any insights on this decision, as I don't think I've seen a team Captain as a Junior transfer . Maybe I missed this story.
EDIT?UPDATE: I now can see Reed became the starter after the loss to Union in 2025, and Parker entered the transfer portal last December. He beat Hobart last year at Ithaca, hopefully he doesn't repeat it this year for Alfred.

Alfred always seems to me to have a competent defense and running and no QB, so maybe they'll be a little dangerous with Parker. He struck me as a standard issue LL quarterback: nice, not thrilling, but nice.

Always seem weird to when a kid transfers his last year, but everyone's decision set is a little different. Reed had a couple nice games at the end of the year but it's not like he was jumped by a Germinerio type. Seems like he would have plenty to play for as a senior at Ithaca.  Also, this is a peak year for Ithaca - basically everyone is back, a ton of seniors.  Means a long season, and a real chance a backup QB may not to step in at some point with a lot on the line.

Can't wait for Saturday.  Early OOC games for the LL big four include a bunch of opportunities to send a message nationally and jack up their NPIs.  No one seized those opportunities last year, but the league as a whole should be a step above last year, given how much everyone brings back.   

I guess it's time...

Mach's Shameless LL Week 1 Predictions

Ithaca - 21
Johns Hopkins - 38
Hopkins might just be one of the best in the country this year.

Buff State - 6
Brockport - 42
Will Buff St improve this year? No idea, but my magic 8 ball says 'probably not'.

Case Western Reserve - 21
Rochester - 24
If Rochester maintains any of their recent mediocrity, this might be a really fun game to watch.

St. Lawrence - 28
Norwich - 10
Hopefully the Larries drop the beat down.

Alfred - 24
Hobart - 35
Alfred shocked the blumpkins to start last season, so maybe a payback is order.

WPI - 10
RPI - 42
Hopefully the boys in Red stay healthy and get some good reps ahead of the next 3 weeks.

Dilbert - 6
St. Vincent - 10
Can Dilbert get their first win ever? I guess this is their chance, but I just can't pick them. This game is an attrocity.

FWIW, I have heard that Parker is not QB1 at Alfred

The Parker-Reed switch came after the Bombers' first eight drives at Rochester generated 72 yards, 3 points and three turnovers.

In addition to being the team's QB1 by the end of the year, and the team's second-leading rusher, Reed was also, stunningly, Ithaca's 5th leading receiver last season.

He's certainly not Germinerio but much like Germinerio, he showed that he can be a dual threat, one-man offense.

In Cortaca 2019, Germinerio threw 27 passes and ran the ball 34 times for 61 touches on 78 plays (78%), accounting for 410 of their 446 yards (92%)

In Cortaca 2025, Reed threw 23 passes and ran the ball 25 times for 48 touches on 67 plays (72%) accounting for 275 out of 347 yards (80%)

What I'm about to say is a bit out of place in D3, but that doesn't mean I'm 100% wrong: No one at Ithaca's solidifying anything -- a starting job or a legacy -- against Alfred. It's games like Cortaca that do that.

Pat can maybe provide more insight, but I'd bet a dollar and a donut that, if you asked the voters, AJ Wingfield getting the 3rd place preseason all-American in 2023 was massively influenced by his nearly flawless performance in Cortaca (18-of-20, 209 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT)

Quote from: unionpalooza on September 02, 2026, 10:44:57 AMAlso, this is a peak year for Ithaca - basically everyone is back, a ton of seniors.  Means a long season, and a real chance a backup QB may not to step in at some point with a lot on the line.

Plus Yankee Stadium.