Messiah Falcons:  Schedule  |  Write-up with Incoming Class

Non-Conference:
Added (3): Franciscan (A), Vassar (A), Muhlenberg (A)
Dropped (4): Claremont-M-S, Rowan, Salisbury, Lynchburg
Retained (7): Scranton (H), Dickinson (H), PSU-Harrisburg (H), E-town (A), Lancaster Bible (H), Mary Washington (A), Lycoming (A)

Salisbury is dropped after 6 seasons.  Rowan is dropped after two years.  Last year's neutral site game vs. Lynchburg has no follow-up.  Clarement's visit to Messiah was never part of a home/away series.

This will be the first-ever encounter with Vassar.  Franciscan is on the regular season schedule for the first time, having met once before in the NCAA first round in 2022 the night before Williams ousted the undefeated Falcons on PKs.  Muhlenberg is back on schedule after a home/away series that straddled the missed COVID season represented the first meetings of the sides since playing annually thru the mid-2000s (before and after the Mules departure from the MAC to form the Centennial in 1993).

It looks like they re-upped for another home/away series with Scranton and Mary Washington, while this is the fourth straight year playing Lancaster Bible.  Dickinson continues to be their most played non-conference opponent.  Former conference foe Lycoming has remained an annual adversary since moving to the Freedom side of the MAC in 2021 and then leaving the MAC in 2023.  And PSU-Harrisburg has become a regular, being on the slate six of the last seven seasons.  E-town and the flying marshmallows is a given (2018 being the only year this game was not on the schedule since Messiah joined the NCAA in 1982).

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on January 23, 2025, 11:23:39 AMMay have reported before, but Mike Singleton appears to be out on his own - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-singleton-4a46084/  while still listed as Goucher's womens coach.

So a team in the Maryland,DC,northern VA and southern PA area will be lucky to have him and Goucher will continue to be dysfunctional.

His post 3 weeks ago (boldface is mine):

   Hi everyone! I'm currently seeking new opportunities and would greatly appreciate
   your support. If you come across any openings or simply wish to reconnect, feel free
   to send me a message or comment below. I'm eager to reestablish connections.
   #OpenToWork
   
   About me & my preferences:
   - Seeking Head Soccer Coach positions. Am a sport psychologist and published
   writer in many domains.
   - Interested in roles in 21204, 33701, and across North America.
   - Previously employed at Goucher College and Washington and Lee University and
   MIT.
   
   Let's connect and explore potential opportunities together!

Assuming those are zip codes (which is a very curious way to communicate where you are looking), that's Townson, MD 21204 and St. Petersburg, FL 33701.

While a down year relatively speaking wouldn't have been unexpected for Messiah, it's unfathomable that Messiah has a losing record entering conference play. Sure, they lost a 5th-year Sr. center back Ben Vollmer for the season in Game 1 and have largely been without Sr. striker Stefan Leitzel (limited minutes in three recent games). So it shows that they have been missing who were probably expected to be their best players on the front and back lines, but Messiah has a strong, deep squad that would have been expected to cope with those losses a bit better than they have.

Hopefully tonight's Homecoming Game against Eastern breaks the Falcons skid which has been about as bad as it has ever gotten for Messiah since the 1960's when the program was just getting started.  This year marks the first sub-.500 record at end of September since 1976 when they were 1-2-0. The only other losing records entering October came in 1967, 1968 and 1969, the first three years of the men's soccer program when they went a combined 3-27-1. Likewise it's their first losing record after 10 games since 1976 and before that the three seasons in the 1960's.

Their current 4-game winless streak is just the third such occurrence since the 1960's; the other two: 1996 (0-3-1 in mid- to late-October) and 1973 (0-3-1 to start the season).  If they don't beat Eastern in the Homecoming Game tonight it would be the longest winless streak since 1969.

The conference slate should help them pick up some wins, but few, if any, games can now be considered gimmes, and York, Alvernia and Widener in particular could add to the Falcons' woes.

Worst Septembers (min. 6 games played)
1. 2024 - 4-5-0 (.444), 12 pts. (1.3 pts/gm)
2. 2015 - 5-3-1 (.611), 16 pts. (1.8 pts/gm)
3. 2003 - 5-2-2 (.667), 17 pts. (1.9 pts/gm)
4. 1982 - 4-1-3 (.688), 15 pts. (1.9 pts/gm)
5. 1987 - 6-3-0 (.667), 18 pts. (2.0 pts/gm)
6. 2019 - 6-2-2 (.700), 20 pts. (2.0 pts/gm)
7. 1993 - 6-2-1 (.722), 19 pts. (2.1 pts/gm)
8. 2000 - 7-2-1 (.750), 22 pts. (2.2 pts/gm)
9. 1981 - 4-1-1 (.750), 13 pts. (2.2 pts/gm)
10. 2016 - 6-0-3 (.833), 21 pts. (2.3 pts/gm)

Worst first 10 games
1. 1969 - 0-10-0 (.000), 0 pts. (0 pts/gm)
2. 1968 - 0-9-1 (.050), 1 pts. (0.1 pts/gm)
3. 1967 - 1-8-0 (.125), 3 pts. (0.3 pts/gm)
4. 1976 - 4-6-0 (.400), 12 pts. (1.2 pts/gm)
5. 2024 - 4-5-1 (.450), 13 pts. (1.3 pts/gm)
6. 1970 - 5-5-0 (.500), 15 pts. (1.5 pts/gm)
7. 1973 - 4-3-3 (.500), 15 pts. (1.5 pts/gm)
8. 1971 - 6-4-0 (.600), 18 pts. (1.8 pts/gm)
9. 2015 - 6-3-1 (.650), 19 pts. (1.9 pts/gm)
10. 1993 - 6-3-1 (.650), 19 pts. (1.9 pts/gm)
11. 1972 - 6-3-1 (.650), 19 pts. (1.9 pts/gm)

Worst 7-Game Stretches
1. 1969 - 0-7-0 (.000)  (part of 10-game losing streak)
2. 1968 - 0-6-1 (.071)  (part of 10-game winless streak that incl. 6-game losing streak)
3. 1967 - 1-6-0 (.143)  (one win sandwiched between two 4-game losing streaks)
4. 2024 - 1-5-1 (.214)
5. 1970 - 2-5-0 (.286)
6. 1996 - 2-4-1 (.357)
7. 1976 - 2-4-1 (.357)
8. 1989 - 3-4-0 (.429)
9. 1984 - 3-4-0 (.429)
10. 1980 - 3-4-0 (.429)

Longest Winless Streaks
1. 1969 - 0-10-0
2. 1968 - 0-9-1
3. 1967 - 0-4-0
4. 1967 - 0-4-0
5. 2024 - 0-3-1
6. 1996 - 0-3-1
7. 1973 - 0-1-3
8. 1996 - 0-3-0
9. 1989 - 0-3-0
10. 1987 - 0-3-0
11. 1979 - 0-3-0
12. 1971 - 0-3-0
13. 1970 - 0-3-0
14. 1976 - 0-2-1

Most loses in a season
1. 1969 - 1-10-0 (.091)
2. 1968 - 1-9-1 (.136)
3. 1967 - 1-8-0 (.111)
4. 1976 - 5-7-1 (.423)
5. 1971 - 7-7-0 (.500)
6. 1993 - 15-7-1 (.674)
7. 1980 - 18-7-0 (.720)
8. 1970 - 5-6-0 (.455)
9. 1979 - 10-6-1 (.618)
10. 1984 - 10-6-2 (.583)
11. 1983 - 15-6-1 (.705)

The Marshmallow Bowl is definitely a fun, cool, unique tradition.  For whatever reason, I didn't think last night was the best showing for the marshmallows--there seemed to be fewer of them flying back and forth in the stands, a less intense atmosphere between opposing student groups, fewer marshmallows making it onto the field, and fewer good opportunities to pelt the players. But my kids still enjoyed themselves like they do every year. I hope the Messiah student who chomped away at a soccer ball sized clump of moistened marshmallows that had been thrown back and forth between opposing student groups didn't ended up in the infirmary today. I also hope that the throwing of partially-filled bags of marshmallows after whirling it above your head can be discouraged in future years as that does start to become dangerous. 

I'm just glad that the two schools decided the embrace the tradition after a few years of banning marshmallows in the mid-2000's. The clean-up can be a big undertaking and I still don't know how exactly they clean the aluminum bleachers of the sticky, sugary coating (if not snuggly tied, you can lose a shoe walking out of the bleachers!). But I believe they employ students through the work-study program and have developed strategies for a more effective and efficient clean-up. 

Long live the Marshmallow Bowl!

Quote from: Falconer on September 17, 2024, 09:50:26 AMWhen Dickinson scored the last two goals vs Messiah last Wednesday and Salisbury scored the first two goals on Saturday, it was probably just the second time this century in which the Falcons yielded four goals in a row to opponents. The previous instance in my mind was in 2015, when Rowan scored 4 in Grantham before Messiah rookie Nick West got 2 of them back. That was a rare rebuilding season for the Falcons, who for the only time since 1996 failed to qualify for the tournament. They came back quickly, owing to 3 FR players who had been regional HS AAs: Nick West, David Alejos, and Samuel Ruiz Plaza. Two of those men were first-team AAs at Messiah. In their final season (2018), West had that brilliant season, scoring in the last 15 games of the season, but Ruiz Plaza--the engine of that offense--went down before the Elite Eight game vs Rochester, in which Rochester took advantage of his absence to stymie the Falcon attack on the way to a 2-1 victory.

This season so far reminds me of 2015. If that means a national title two years from now, I'll take it. But, I don't see 3 great FR who could make that happen this time. We'll see...

I was going to follow-up my previous post with one about 2015 and that loss to Rowan, but never got around to it. So it was interesting to see Falconer make the connection (although I wasn't thinking in terms of consecutive goal conceded).

I left the Salisbury game feeling a little like I did after watching the Rowan loss--a resignation that this will probably be a down year. With more time to think about it, it's somewhat premature to feel that way about the current season.  First, the two games played out quite differently: Rowan overall really (and fairly comprehensively) beat us while Salisbury outscored us by being opportunistic (and hats off to them for that). Secondly, the Falcons are dealing with injuries, including losing a starting CB in the first game of the season, while I don't think injuries could be used as an explanation for the problematic start to the 2015 season. 

So I think Fitz@615 is right that it's too early to write an eulogy on the 2024 season, but there are worrying signs.  That 10 minute spell from about the 75th minute when Messiah scored to the 85th minute when Salisbury got their third goal (with the near equalizer in between) shows what the Falcons are capable of and that gives hope.  But it will take a lot more than 10-minute cameos of attacking verve for Messiah to be considered a legitimate threat in November.

So, with nervousness and excitement, I am taking the kids over to Elizabethtown tonight to sling some marshmallows and cheer the Falcons on to victory.

Quote from: Freddyfud on September 14, 2024, 09:04:26 PM

Quote from: Kuiper on September 14, 2024, 08:50:32 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on September 14, 2024, 08:24:26 PMSalisbury holding on to a 2-0 lead in the 58' at Messiah.

If last game was Messiah's first regular season loss in several years, when was the last time they lost two in a row at home in the regular season?

I'm a few minutes behind you but the announcers just said 1996 and then before that 1975.

This is only the second time in the Coach Brandt/Coach McCarty era (26+ seasons) that Messiah has lost two in a row (regardless of site), the other time being opening weekend in 2019 on the road to Hobart and Ithaca.  As far as two home losses in a row, the announcers had that right with 1996 (Coach Layton Shoemaker's final season) and before that 1975 (the program's 9th season and well before joining the NCAA).  In fact, two home losses total in a season last happened nineteen years ago in 2004, the year of their third national title.

Next up for the Falcons is the midweek "Marshmallow Bowl" against Elizabethtown who will host for the fifth time in their first six games this season.  E-town got beat 3-0 by Washington College, but then held F&M to a 0-0 tie, so not sure what to expect of the Blue Jays.  Regardless, if Messiah's attack remains relatively toothless in the offensive third despite still being able to dominate possession and the make-shift D-line continues to look disjointed and extremely vulnerable, it could be a long, nervy night for the Falcon Faithful with Elizabethtown all too happy to add to Messiah's misery. 

Three Falcon losses in a row hasn't occurred since 1996 when visiting Wheaton (Ill.) spoiled Homecoming weekend with a 4-0 whitewash, followed by 0-1 home loss to Gettysburg and capped of by a 1-2 loss to who other than rival E-town in that year's edition of the marshmallow game at Messiah.

The previous time Messiah dropped three straight games, in 1989, E-town again inflicted the third loss upon the Falcons with an emphatic 3-0 road victory en route to a national championship. If one historical account is to be believed, 1989 would have been the second year in which marshmallows flew at this grudge match, and the first in which both sets of fans engaged "in battle". (Dating myself, I was a freshman that year as was current Messiah head coach McCarty.)

So in this rivalry that has been off the boil more than not in the past 20 years, there's extra plot lines and intrigue this year. Even a draw would be make this a rare skid for the Falcons who have only gone winless in three straight one time (2008) since that 3-game losing streak in 1996.  Three total losses in a entire season has only happened four times in that same timeframe.

Alvernia Schedule

One observation I meant to share on here on the eve of the seaosn, but never found the time, is that Alvernia has one the toughest non-conference schedules around.  They took what was a pretty tough slate in 2023 and added a couple more strong opponents.  The headliners are Rochester, Cortland St., Franklin & Marshall, Montclair St. and Stevens, but Muhlenberg and LVC are also solid competition, especially for a program like Alvernia.  The out-of-conference schedule is not without some easier games, but only one complete cupcake in local opponent PSU-Berks.  In conference play, they get Messiah to add to the aforementioned heavyweights.

So far Alvernia did well to hang on for the 0-0 tie at Muhlenburg in the season opener after going down to 10 men already in the 10th minute due to a straight red card (not the way the freshman would have wanted his college career to start, but it sounds like he may have prevented a goal).  And then 5+ hours from home this past Saturday they made Rochester work for their 1-0 win. The Wolves sit at 3-1-1 having won the games they were supposed.

Alvernia (coach by E-town grad Casey Moore) won the ECAC tournament last year, so maybe that combined with challenging schedules came help the program find greater success.  I remember when Tim Oswald (another E-town grad) took over at Rutgers-Camden in the mid-2000's, he put together some of the toughest schedules in D-III and they took their lumps, but come the end of the season they'd go win the ECAC's (three time in his first five seasons). Then starting in season 6 he led the Raptors to three straight NJAC titles (and 4 of 5) and made runs to the NCAA Elite 8 and Final in years 6 and 8.  I'm not expecting Alvernia to find that level of success in the coming years, but it would be interesting if they could improve so they could push Messiah harder in conference and get themselves into consideration for a NCAA berth.

Much more surprising than Messiah losing to Dickinson is the Falcons getting outshot 19-10!!!  That's nearly unheard of, although so far this season Messiah's shot total was matched by Scranton (8-8) and Carthage (14-14) leaving only the Cal Lutheran game with a familiar shot advantage (23-11).  So this is very unusual territory.  In all of 2023 and 2022, only three times did an opponent even manage half as many shots as the Falcons, Lynchburg doing the best with 12 shots to the Falcons' 16 opening weekend two years ago in a 2-2 tie while Catholic held Messiah to a 20-11 advantage opening weekend last year and Ohio Northern ended the Falcons' undefeated season and title hopes in the NCAA's with a 11-22 shot deficit, but a 1-0 advantage in goals scored.  Now in 2024 opponents have already matched or exceeded the Falcons' shot total in three of four games!

As far as being outshot, the last time that happened was in the Elite 8 loss to Washington & Lee in 2021 when the Generals edged them 15-14. That came one week after Kenyon outshot Messiah by a whopping 18-7 (more than double!) in the Sweet 16 only to allow the Falcons to escape with a 2-1 win. That season Messiah was outshot three times with NYU having a 14-11 advantage in a regular season match. 

But over the past 20 seasons (2003-2023, no 2020 season), the Falcons have only been outshot 15 times over 471 games.  In only three of those 15 cases was the opponent able to leverage that advantage into a win and in only three of those 15 cases was the opponent's shot advantage significant.  Only once were both true: in the Falcon's 2010 season opener, Hobart outshot the defending champions and hosts by a 19-10 margin en route to a 2-1 overtime win.  In the following season's opener, Ohio Wesleyan outshot Messiah 18-10, but still lost 1-2 in front of their own fans after conceding just 29 seconds into the game (FWIW, the Bishops bounced back to make a run to the national championship and, thanks to also dropping the NCAC final to 2-seed DePauw, Jay Martin was able to break the record for all-time wins by a college men's coach in that year's title game instead a game or two earlier).

Anyway, to be dramatic about it, Dickinson did what hasn't been accomplished in at least the past 20 years (and most certainly longer than that): outshoot the Falcons by a significant margin and win in regulation.  The Red Devils will hope to fare better than Hobart did in 2010 when the Statesmen finished a disappointing 7-6-4 after a promising 4-1-0 start, missing the 4-team Liberty League playoffs while the Falcons merely responded by winning their next 23 games to claim their third national title in a row and eighth overall.

Quote from: Kuiper on May 24, 2024, 04:19:42 PM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on May 24, 2024, 04:01:05 PM

Quote from: PauldingLightUP on May 24, 2024, 03:12:47 PMHope features one MWC, one ASC, one OAC, three NCAC, two NACC, one SLIAC, and one UAA.

https://athletics.hope.edu/sports/mens-soccer/schedule/2024

Carroll features one UMAC, one MIAC, three NACC, one MWC, two ARC, and one WIAC.

https://gopios.com/sports/mens-soccer/schedule/2024

.500ish LeTourneau (TX) travelling all the way to MI to play Hope (and you'd imagine someone else while they're at it) is a real head-scratcher.  They do annually often take one out-of-region trip but this is more out-of-region than usual.   Next season will be their last in the ASC before moving to the SCAC. 

I saw that as well and the only thing I can figure is that LeTourneau's coach was trying to negotiate some home-and-away series when he thought it might not get the invitation to the SCAC and would need additional non-conference games in future years.  They only accepted the invite to the SCAC last month and presumably this deal was reached some time before then.  Plus, since they won't join the SCAC until next fall, they needed the two extra non-conference games this year, which made an out-of-state trip a good idea.  Of course, they might have been able to do that without going quite so far, but once you hop on an airplane, the extra cost isn't going to vary too greatly.

LeTourneau is playing Calvin on Friday, Aug. 30 and Hope on Saturday, Aug. 31. 

One possible explanation for lining up these opponents is that LeTourneau is a Christian/faith-based institution as are Hope and Calvin, even if their historical and current-day denominational affiliations differ.  Hope and Calvin come from the Reformed tradition while LeTourneau, though always non-denominational, historically was more on the Baptist/evangelical/fundamental end of the spectrum.  (Full disclosure: as a very strong engineering school, LeTourneau was my second choice behind Messiah back in the late 80's.)

Quote from: camosfan on December 08, 2023, 03:38:46 PM
Cuse, St Johns or Cornell did nothing this year.

I think Newenglander is referring to player hometowns, not location of their school/team.  Because Hofstra had a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd teamer, and Univ. of New Hampshire has a 1st and a 3rd teamer.  But as far as hometowns, there's just the Hofstra 3rd teamer from Merrick, NY.

I think coaches nominate their own payers for USC All-Region honors and are limited to 4 field players.  Trinity has four field players on the teams, so that means that Knutson wasn't one of the four field players that Coach McGinley nominated.

I wonder if the lack of St. Thomas players has to do with no one at St. Thomas submitting nominations?

Quote from: Recon on November 29, 2023, 01:13:10 PM
ha!  apologies if it wasn't clear...  cheers. 

So, RIT (Rochester Institute of Technology) does not appear to be attending based on the "initial" coaches list...  (although, yes, they are liberty league conference)

UAA D3 Schools Attending the Showcase:   

University of Rochester, UAA Conference  (many get URochester and RIT mixed up!)
and,
Washington University St Louis, also UAA conference.  (It appears D1 school University of Washington is highlighted as UAA).

If Freddyfud's list of attending schools is correct (I'm assuming he cut-and-pasted it from a reliable source), then RIT is coming and Univ. of Rochester is not.  The wrong Washington, however, was tagged.  I know that Freddyfud had originally posted a link to last year's (2022) list.  Maybe that's causing some confusion.  Anyway, either way, Freddyfud's work gives a general sense of the number and demographic of D-III schools attending this event.

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 28, 2023, 11:09:08 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 15, 2023, 03:48:54 PM
Another obvious constraint is budget which generally might be less of a challenge for UAAs and NESCACs when compared to other institutions.  Son is heading to MLS Next Fest in Phoenix 3 weeks from now.  For institutions attending this event clearly budget and effort are required especially as the post season isn't finished yet for some.  While I can't find a list yet of colleges attending here is a list for last year's event:

https://latdpelite.com/over-200-coaches-at-mls-next-fest/

You can see most of the NESCACs and a bunch of the UAAs including Emory attended plus a few others from other conferences. 

Edit:  and how could I forget to mention budget and effort on the part of parents 

List of colleges for next week's Phoenix event is out now:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J48IhuTffXj82qXlTXDcPXufJiuZiTOdKZy4zMbY8Y8/edit?usp=sharing

Out of 191 confirmed, 39 are D3. UAA and NESCAC leading the way but also see some from regions VIII, IX and X.

FYI - On a quick pass, you can also add Clarkson, Hobart, UT-Dallas and WashU as D3's.  Were you able to confirm that the Univ. of St. Thomas is the Texas institution instead of the Minnesota one that just recently moved to Division I?

Quote from: Saint_Dad on November 10, 2023, 03:10:17 PM
I agree with a lot of what's been written already.
Nescac is just better.   They are also much deeper.  I could argue that 5 of SLUs starters from last year could have started on Amherst's team.  I could also argue that 6 players from Amherst's bench could have started on the same SLU team.  Look at conn college roster.  Almost 40 players.  Perhaps there will be a few on the transfer portal. 
As was mentioned, there is one top conference in region 1.  Liberty league shares with Rochester and SUNYAC.   That's 3 spots gone.  The most that the liberty league or Sunyac can expect to get in the NCAAs is 2.  Sunyac came close to 3 this year.  And if they can't get three this year, I don't see it happening any year.  Perhaps with Rochester and the LL having a bad year.  My conclusion is to not be overly concerned about SOS as pretty much the only way a LL team can make the tournament with an at large bid is coming in first or second in the league and losing in the final of the tournament. In fact I think SLU should get rid of the Hartwick Oneonta back to back weekend at Oneonta and replace it with a home weekend against weaker opponents.  Oneonta weekend always ends up with injuries.  Home weekend against weaker opponents would give team confidence and allow all players to show if they can play during the season.   

Responding to the red bolded part in the quote above . . .

RPI got an at-large bid in a year in which they missed out on the Liberty League playoffs.  SOS and RvR made that possible.

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 10, 2023, 02:03:59 PM
I have a math phobia, and this is slightly off-topic, but my sense is that some schools are masters at perennially scheduling one of the top two out of the weakest conferences as a way to boost or mitigate SoS...but the schedules of those teams that include the 2-15 teams in their conference also figures in.  I do know that a couple of 1-16 or 3-14 teams on the schedule can do a lot of SoS damage.  And sometimes you just don't know.  You could have Centre the year the make the Final Four or a subsequent season where they are below .500.

Any bubble team needs to weed their schedule of the 2-15-0 and 3-14-1 teams in their non-conference schedule to give themselves a fighting change.  Those opponents kill, kill, KILL one's SOS.  In my opinion, unfairly so.

If the current SOS computation is to remain in place versus undergoing a major overhaul, that I still strongly believe in and propose a modification to place a floor on the OWP.  Any opponents' record below .400 (or .425 or .450) for SOS computational purposes should be taken as .400 (or .425 or .450).  Bad teams are bad teams, and after a certain point, the difference in the probability of a win/risk of a loss is irrelevant for teams deserving of consideration for an at-large tournament berth.  What the threshold should be would require some parametric studies and experimentation applied to past seasons.  But I think that would be a huge improvement in the current SOS computations.  Who knows, maybe Western Connecticut gets in last year with such a threshold in place.  Imagine if non-conference opponents John Jay 5-11-2 (.333), Westfield St. 3-10-5 (.306), Pratt 1-12-3 (.156), and Trinity-CT 1-11-3 (.167) were all treated as .400 teams for SOS.  Those teams killed a SOS that already started low due to their conference affiliation.  But should a win over GNAC's Rivier 6-8-3 (.441) speak any more to a team's qualification to participate in the NCAA Tournament than beating Pratt? For me those games are irrelevant and distinction between them shouldn't be made.  Or take Middlebury's opener in 2022, Skyline midtable Mount St. Mary 8-6-4 (.555).  Did that game prove that Middlebury was more worthy of a tournament berth than Western Conn?  The Pratt game alone was approximately a 13 pt. drain on West Conn's SOS.

     West Conn GP = 22, West Conn's SOS = .518, Pratt win pct = .156, Pratt OWP = .436
     Average contribution to West Conn's SOS  =  SOS / GP  =  .518 / 22  =  .024
     Pratt contribution to West Conn's SOS  =  1/GP [2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP]  =  1/22 [2/3(.156) + 1/3(.436)]  =  .011
     .024 - .011 = 0.013 diff.

If a .400 bottom threshold was applied, Pratt's adjusted contribution to West Conn's SOS would have been .020 or a mere 0.006 drain on their SOS instead of 0.013.  That would have lifted West Conn's SOS from .518 to .523.  Apply this to all their sub-.400 opponents and maybe their SOS climbs into the mid-.540's or higher which combined with their pristine 20-0-2 record might have gotten them in.

Now, that doesn't mean teams shouldn't schedule intelligently and challenge themselves more if they want to become tournament participants, but this would mitigate the impact of the horrible teams' in your own conference and any non-conference opponents that do even worse than expected.

Whether a similar cap on the high end would be beneficial or not, I've never decided.  For example, any win pct. over .900 (or .875 or .850) is treated as .900 (or .875 or .850) for computing SOS.  I would want to play around with the impact of that more before campaigning for such a change.