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Messages - CUAfan

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16
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 05, 2012, 12:05:15 am »
They may have performed well but a loss is still a loss; people usually just look at the win/loss column and don't bother to check the point spread.

If I may speak frankly, if all someone looks at is W/L and doesn't even look at margin of victory, much less the rest of the box score, then I do not care about that person's opinion. The point of the game is to win of course, but if one wants to know how well a team played then one has to look at more than just W/L.

Which is why I look at the numbers I do.

17
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 03, 2012, 10:35:45 pm »
As promised, my case for Jeremy LaGarde being ASC East POY.

18
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 03, 2012, 09:54:27 am »
Arrgh... The ASC got four teams into the playoffs, and it looks like all four of them got knocked out in the first round.  This isn't going to help us look like a strong conference.

LC only lost by 3 and UMHB by 2, so those games could easily have gone the other way. As I understand it, McMurry was close to Whitworth through most of the game which bodes well for them. Only CTX didn't really perform well, and I'll admit they weren't the strongest possible team. Could the ASC have done better? Yes, but we hardly embarrassed ourselves.

19
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 02, 2012, 10:30:12 pm »
Just heard Whitworth outrebounded McMurry. Don't know how that happened, a ton of offensive boards and second chance shots absolutely killed Whitworth for most of the game.

That also killed most ASC defenses for most of the year. McMurry was absurdly good at offensive rebounding this year, possibly the best such team in ASC history.

Regardless of what the rebounding margin was, McMurry beat Whitworth on the boards. McMurry got 40.7% of their available offensive rebounds and 64.0% of Whitworth's, leaving marks of 36.0% and 59.3% for Whitworth's offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively. McMurry just shot and missed more often, giving Whitworth more chances at generally-easier-to-get defensive rebounds. I don't have the data to back it up, but McMurry might have been the best rebounding team in the country this year.

20
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 02, 2012, 04:56:30 pm »
Looks like everyone has left his/her computer to hit the road to Belton!

Well, if you really want to have a discussion, I'll throw this out there:

Chris Barnes should not have won East POY, and it should have gone to Jeremy LaGarde of ETBU. Statistical case to follow later tonight/tomorrow when I have my data available (I hate closing shifts at call centers).

21
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 01, 2012, 01:32:32 pm »
First blog post on ASC individual stats is up!

22
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: March 01, 2012, 01:32:14 pm »
First blog post on ASC individual stats is up!

23
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 27, 2012, 11:15:00 am »
Watch out what you wish for the NCAA could put you playing against them again in the first or second round of the playoffs.

Then we'll just have to beat 'em again! :P

Though the projected bracket has LC going north to Chicago and CTX going west to George Fox.

24
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 27, 2012, 11:11:39 am »
Thanks!  I love your analysis, especially your point about consistency.  This was McM's problem all year beating good teams and then collapsing with poor ones.  If we revert to form in the playoffs, as you note, we won't be in the game for long. But at least we got the championship.

Incidentally, congratulations on your CUA women.  They came out of nowhere and took it all.  (Don't forget that two of your players are former McM students, who transferred when Coach Rainbolt got the job with you!)

Flags fly forever!

25
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 26, 2012, 11:51:34 pm »
LC had better get a Pool C bid. They were the most dominant ASC team this year by a wide margin (0.07 points per possession), and had one bad offensive game against an elite defensive team in CTX. Plus, weren't they ranked for a large part of the year? Not that the polls matter for seeding, but it indicates that the prevailing notion has been that LC was a top 25 team.

26
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 26, 2012, 11:47:49 pm »
An interesting exercise in statistics: the team that won the conference didn't score in any of your categories!  Do you need some other category to cover whatever McM did to win out?

McMurry's ASC Tournament Margins
2/24: +0.28, McMurry (1.13), East Texas Baptist (0.85)
2/25: +0.12, McMurry (1.12), Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.00)
2/26: +0.06, McMurry (1.10), Hardin-Simmons (1.04)

McMurry was absurdly consistent (and very good) offensively. That tends to help. I don't think they really got worse on defense as much as they faced a series of increasingly better offenses.

McMurry Tourney Opponent Offenses
ETBU: Season, 1.01; Game, 0.85; -15.8%
UMHB: Season, 1.05; Game, 1.00; -4.8%
HSU: Season, 1.05; Game 1.04; -1.0%
MCM: Season, 1.07; Tourney 1.12; +4.7%

So, they played very good to average defense, and managed to consistently improve upon the second-best offense in the conference over three games. Now, the downside of this is that nobody is that consistent over an extended period, so McMurry is "due" for a relatively poor offensive game, meaning back down to the 1.02-1.05 range. Which can still win, it's just harder.

27
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 26, 2012, 06:46:04 pm »
Congratulations to McMurry on making good on being the preseason #1 in the West with a conference title and NCAA bid!

Top Performances in the Tournament

Best Offense: 1.34, Hardin-Simmons vs. Louisiana College, 2/24
Best Defense: 0.82, Texas-Dallas vs. Schreiner, 2/24
Biggest Win: +0.37, Texas-Dallas (1.19) vs. Schreiner (0.82), 2/24
Closest Win: +0.02, Hardin-Simmons (1.02) vs. Texas-Dallas (1.00), 2/25
Most Offense: Hardin-Simmons (1.34) vs. Louisiana College (1.21), 2/24
Least Offense: Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.00) vs. Mississippi College (0.84), 2/24

28
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 26, 2012, 06:41:11 pm »
Congratulations to the CTX women! From picked fourth in the West, to the top seed in the division, to a conference title and NCAA bid! Way to go 'Nados!

Top Performances of the Tournament

Best Offense: 0.93, McMurry vs. Mississippi College, 2/24
Best Defense: 0.61, Concordia-Texas vs. Texas-Dallas, 2/25
Biggest Win: +0.26, Louisiana College (0.89) vs. McMurry (0.63), 2/25
Closest Win: +0.04, Texas-Dallas (0.82) vs. Howard Payne (0.78), 2/24
Most Offense: McMurry (0.93) vs. Mississippi College (0.87), 2/24
Least Offense: Concordia-Texas (0.81) vs. Texas-Dallas (0.61), 2/25

29
South Region / Re: MBB: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 25, 2012, 09:45:09 pm »
HSU 64, UTD 63.

Another win by HSU over a regionally ranked team, but I think that their only chance is to win the ASC.

I'm none too familiar with the whole selection process in D3, but it seems to me that the ASC is only likely to get the HSU/MCM winner plus Mary Hardin-Baylor into the tournament, but not all three.

30
South Region / Re: American Southwest Conference
« on: February 22, 2012, 12:09:21 pm »
Yeah, avoiding LC is definitely a good thing. I just don't understand how they can play that fast and not turn the ball over more. Maybe the Concordia men could take notes.

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