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Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007

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Spence:
Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

Jim Dixon:

--- Quote from: Spence on January 22, 2008, 09:46:05 pm ---
*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).


--- End quote ---

23/36 making the Championship round is 64% and higher than the 55% of those ranked in a preseason poll making just the playoffs.

Having had an AA pitcher is a better predictor of success.

+k to Spence for his post.

Spence:

--- Quote from: Jim Dixon on January 23, 2008, 10:19:11 am ---
--- Quote from: Spence on January 22, 2008, 09:46:05 pm ---
*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).


--- End quote ---

23/36 making the Championship round is 64% and higher than the 55% of those ranked in a preseason poll making just the playoffs.

Having had an AA pitcher is a better predictor of success.

+k to Spence for his post.

--- End quote ---

Woohoo now I'm only -8,999,999 or whatever it is. :)

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.

A leading indicator would be that 10 of the 23 teams represented by 1st team AAs at the series in a given year returned the next year, and that among those teams, it doesn't really matter if the first team AA is coming back or not. 10 for 23 is still pretty good, though I don't know if it's as good as it seems, considering the usual suspects are represented in that sampling and I'm not sure that 10 for 23 is any better than one would do just penciling in teams based purely on the past (example, if you just blindly put Marietta in with no regard to anything else, historically you'd be right 2/3 of the time).

What I thought was most interesting was the first-time first-team AA phenomenon. The way I basically read it is as an indicator of depth in the pitching staff, but I think part of it is just dumb luck -- example being DeSalvo's injury in 2002.

I guess the way to use this as a predictor is to be able to predict the 1st team AA pitchers. Not sure how realistic that is in preseason, but perhaps as the season progresses it might become more possible.

By the way, it's courtesy your record gathering and keeping that I was able to do this for some of the previous years. I am inclined to think that 2nd and 3rd team analysis could be useful as well, but the years in school for those are not on site, and I don't have any idea where else they could come from.

BigPoppa:

--- Quote from: Spence on January 22, 2008, 09:46:05 pm ---Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

--- End quote ---

Spence- Great work! How much time DO you have on your hands? Your reasearch went above and beyond any thoughts that I conjured up in my own mind. Kodos!

Spence:

--- Quote from: BigPoppa on January 23, 2008, 11:29:04 am ---
--- Quote from: Spence on January 22, 2008, 09:46:05 pm ---Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

--- End quote ---

Spence- Great work! How much time DO you have on your hands? Your reasearch went above and beyond any thoughts that I conjured up in my own mind. Kodos!

--- End quote ---

Fortunately, neither this site nor d3baseball.com is blocked at work. :)

It really didn't take all that long though, again thanks to Jim. Just repeated comparison of a few web pages. I'd like to do more with it; I'm one of those people that likes to look for magic bullets that will probably never be found.

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