As a newbie to understanding the NCAA playoff formula/format am I correct that they don't actually take into account what happens in the games?? For example:

• Wesleyan trailed Hamilton nearly the entire game yet ultimately won by four points after scoring with :14 left.
• Trinity led Hamilton 31-6 at halftime and coasted to a 37-6 win.

Yet, Wesleyan actually gets the higher net NPI score because their win over Hamilton was on the road? I find that to be astonishingly bad process even for an organization like the NCAA.

Spare me all of the "just win it on the field" rhetoric. Obviously, winning every game and getting the conference AQ bid guarantees you a spot in the field. I merely used this example to illustrate the absurdity of not factoring what happens on the field outside of win/loss, home/away.

Quote from: nescac1 on October 13, 2026, 11:48:52 AMSome early thoughts on POTY possibilities:

OPOTY is easy/obvious: 1. Matt Fitzsimons, 2. Jaxon Carroll, 3. Marek Hill, 4. Luke Kurzum.  Great year for QB play at the top of the league, with Fitzsimons certainly the frontrunner as he has really been lighting it up so far (77 percent of passes completed through four games is insane), but it will come down to the games at the end of the season. 

DPOTY is much harder.  Some candidates I'd include: Angus Leary, Tommy Kilroy, Will Baker, Will Gale, Luke Pickard, and Matt Shaw, but no obvious frontrunner. 

Players on the watch list for ROTY: Jack Fabiano (hopefully he is not seriously hurt), Ace Etienne, Ryan Foley, Drew Weiler, and Nathan Rivera.

Speaking of Rivera, he was I think originally committed to Williams and then switched to Trinity, tough loss for the Ephs given that he is the rare FY starter for a loaded Trinity team.  It's pretty rare for an OL to receive a league-wide honor (I mean Thomas Perry never won POTY even if he was clearly the best player in the league) but this is the type of situation where it may actually happen. 

I'll throw in a NESCAC DPOY plug for junior LB Lincoln Moore who was just named to the d3football.com Team of the Week after logging a career-high 13 tackles, including a career-high nine solo stops, with a pair of pass breakups in Trinity's 37-6 win against Hamilton. The Bants lead the nation in first downs allowed and are 2nd in the nation in total defense and scoring defense allowing an average of 180 yards and 5 points per game.

Moore was 1st team All NESCAC as a sophomore and like most of the Bantam starting defense, he doesn't get as many second half reps. Otherwise his totals would very likely be at the very top of the league rankings and he's 5th in the league in total tackles as it is.

I didn't realize Rivera had initially committed to Williams. He did have offers from most of the league (Williams, Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Wesleyan). I guess it was just too hard to turn down that Trinity education. 


On an unrelated note, Logan Hansen (of the Hansen Ratings) tweeted what the playoff field would look, if every conference favorite earned their conference AQ. Based on his ratings Wesleyan would be among the four teams to just miss the cut.

Quote from: Nescacman on October 12, 2026, 10:23:45 AMWesleyan wins another workman like effort overcoming 3 turnovers in winning the first game ever on the new turf at Andrus.

That's an interesting way to say Wesleyan led winless Colby by just 7 points with under 4:00 left in the game.

Quote from: Nescacman on October 12, 2026, 10:23:45 AMHamilton loses to Hartford State despite generating some offense and making this somewhat of a game in the first half.

That's an interesting way to say Trinity led Hamilton 31-6 at halftime.

Quote from: Nescacman on October 11, 2026, 09:00:56 PM

Quote from: jumpshot on October 11, 2026, 04:02:32 PMNescacman, you should know by now that Ephs, especially nescac1, usually win the debate ....

The debate will be settled on the field of play, not in writting. Based on past history, we like our chances... 

Not sure this is the flex you think it is Nescacman... Wesleyan's all-time winning percentage against Williams is 38.9%.    I can only assume you were referencing recent history.

I agree with nescac1 that the NPI will likely only impact the second place NESCAC finisher. Amherst will finish with at least 2 losses and I'm willing to bet they drop at least one of their road games at Tufts or at Williams. We're all still new to this, but I can only imagine Wes is currently ahead of Trin in NPI based on the fact that the Cards played 3-1 Tufts while Trin played 0-4 Bates (if only the Jumbos hadn't blocked the Kitties game winning field goal attempt).

Otherwise their schedules are very similar. Both played Colby and Hamilton; Trinity beat Williams, who actually has a better NPI than Middlebury, who Wesleyan defeated. I'll be interested to see the rating after this week as Trinity travels to Tufts and Wes hosts Bates. Ultimately, the league has a round-robin schedule so it'll all even out in the end. I remain optimistic that we'll see two NESCAC squads to make the postseason and the real drama lies is in who wins the league title.

Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per SP+, Hansen, and NPI:

	SP+	Hansen	NPI
Trinity	23	25	42
Wesleyan	47	49	25
Middlebury	100	78	131
Williams	102	84	98
Amherst	111	86	48
Tufts	137	107	87
Colby	165	112	220
Bowdoin	180	122	219
Hamilton	192	115	211
Bates	198	143	216

SP+ is a perfect 20-0 on the year. Here's how the computers project Week 5 in the NESCAC:

Amherst 21.6 @ Colby 11.6 - SP+
Amherst 17.4 @ Colby 12 - Hansen

Bates 9.7 @ Wesleyan 42.0 - SP+
Bates 2.9 @ Wesleyan 37.1 - Hansen

Hamilton 18.2 @ Bowdoin 23.5 - SP+
Hamilton 20 @ Bowdoin 21 - Hansen

Trinity 39.0 @ Tufts 9.2 - SP+
Trinity 38.3 @ Tufts 15.4 - Hansen

Williams 19.2 @ Middlebury 22.7 - SP+
Williams 18.1 @ Middlebury 22.5 - Hansen

It's your ranking bud, do what's in your heart.

All I know is that Wes needed a miracle to beat a team who hasn't had a winning season since 1996. Meanwhile Trinity completely obliterated the team YOU had ranked as the third best in the NESCAC.

To be clear, I fully acknowledge Wesleyan is an excellent team and very well could run the table and beat Trinity for a third straight season (something they haven't done since 1975-'77). My point is that, as much as we appreciate the time and effort that Nescacman contributes, it's undeniable that he has a pro-Wes bias so just take that into account before putting any stock into his own personal ranking.

They say "You're never as good as you look and you're never as bad as you look". It will be difficult for the Bants to look any better than they did against Williams. In fact, over the 85 times the two programs have played this was Trinity's most lopsided victory ever against the Ephs. You'd similarly assume that Wesleyan's defense won't be as bad as they were against Hamilton.

I agree with lumbercat that Hamilton was likely the trap game that Wesleyan typically loses. The fact that they escaped means we could be looking at a historic game in The Coop on November 14 for the 125th Battle of the Birds. The two have never met while both teams were undefeated (only twice have they played with a combined 1 loss, in 1993 and 2016). Don't worry, Maple, I agree there's still a long way to go!

Bantamsdad69, I know as well as anyone that it's hard to not fall into Nescacman's trap, but I've learned over the years that it's exactly what he's looking for. He knows as well as the rest of the board that there's no real case to be made for Wesleyan in the top spot after their narrow escape in Clinton. Best to just roll your eyes and realize that despite his very meaning full addition to the board he can't help himself when it comes to his complete lack of objectivity about Wesleyan.

Quote from: Nescacman on October 05, 2026, 02:07:48 PMWe're not sure we can ever remember a bigger SP+ "spread" than what they are calling for in the Hartford State/Hamilton tilt this Saturday. Hs7-2, knowing that you are an SP+ aficionado, we're sure you can either confirm or deny that this is the biggest called for margin by SP+ for a NESCAC game. Just curious.

As an side, that spread seems aggressive to us, but we digress.

NM

Indeed, 51.7 points is an absolutely MASSIVE number, but it's not the biggest NESCAC SP+ projection discrepancy on record. That game did involve the same two schools however, and it could serve as a warning to the Bantams... in 2023 the projected score for Trinity @ Hamilton was 52.8 - 0. It ended up being a 3 point game with under 2:00 in the 2nd quarter and the Bants led by just 10 at halftime. The final score was a much closer than expected 34-21.

For what it's worth, the Nescacman point spread for that game was Trinity -42.
Thanks to Wes, I can't imagine the Continentals will be sneaking up on Trin this week.

The next biggest discrepancy I could find was Bates at Trinity, also in 2023. SP+ had Trinity favored 51.2 to 0. The Bants won 52-7 with the Bobbies notching their lone score with 2:05 left in the game.

SP+ remains perfect on the season at 15-0, but as we all saw, there were two near upsets. I think this is the week the game on the field outsmarts the computer projection. Game of the Week is clearly Midd @ Amherst which SP+ essentially sees as a pick 'em but with the slightest of margins in favor of the Mammoths. I like the Panthers on the road. Bowdoin and Bates likely have the next best shot at pulling a road upset. 

Here's how the model projects Week 4 in the NESCAC:

Bowdoin 13 @ Tufts 26.6

Colby 3.1 @ Wesleyan 40.5

Middlebury 19.2 @ Amherst 19.7

Hamilton 2.6 @ Trinity 54.3

Bates 9.8 @ Williams 30.5

Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per the SP+ rating (last week's ranking in parenthesis):
13. Trinity (22)
38. Wesleyan (33)
96. Middlebury (115)
102. Amherst (120)
127. Williams (92)
146. Tufts (144)
179. Colby (161)
187. Bowdoin (186)
193. Hamilton (207)
199. Bates (206)

What a finish in Lewiston! We came this close to Bates and Hamilton winning on the same day. When's the last time that happened?

Also, can we please make it mandatory to have one NESCAC night game every week?

Looks like there might only be one team who's a cut above... 

Wesleyan was about to pull another Wesleyan and Hamilton, who had moved the ball at will all day long, punted the ball away on a 4th & 2 near midfield with less than 2:00 to play. Just an absolutely brutal loss for the Continentals but the Cards somehow find a way to win another one.

None of us are batting 1.000 and certainly we're all entitled to our opinions.

If you'd like to take point differential as the metric for determining which teams are a cut above; the average point differential per game for NESCAC champions since 2000 is +17.7. If Trinity wins Saturday by 7 then their average margin of victory so far this season would be +23.3.

The lowest point differential by a league champ was the 2013 Amherst squad at just +9.4 points per game. The highest was the 2004 Bantams at an eye-popping +32.3 points per game. However, to your earlier point the second best point differential was the 2023 Trinity team that lost at Middlebury. Those Panthers finished with an average point differential of just +12.9. Trinity was the far more dominant team that season... but not that day!

I guess what I'm saying is both things can be true... I do think Trinity and Wesleyan are a cut above this year. But also... any given Saturday! Good luck with those pesky Mules this weekend.

Quote from: MapleBBQChicken on October 01, 2026, 01:26:30 PMFor my money, Trinity wins this weekend. But was a 20 point home win against Colby so much more impressive than Williams' 12 point win in Waterville? And how much credit do you get for beating the Lynskey-less Bobcats? I'm just not seeing where the collective confidence is coming from.

On a separate note, if bold predictions are what you want, how about OT in Vermont? I hope I'm wrong, but I think that one will be a very close game.

Colby's first score against Trinity came on a play where the defender fell down in coverage. Sure, it still counts but it isn't exactly a strategy teams can count on replicating. Their second score came with 1:46 left in the game against Trin's 2nd/3rd string defense. The Bants rolled up 473 yards of offense and held Colby to 291 (75 of which came on the busted play). Trinity dominated the game start to finish.

Against Williams, Colby led into the 2nd quarter and it was a 6 point game with 1:56 left to play. The Ephs had just 54 more total yards than the Mules. Williams was the better team but those two games were vastly different contests.

Add in the fact that Williams has lost their best player and the game is being played in The Coop (where Trinity has only lost 6 times in the past quarter century) and I'd say that's likely where the collective confidence is coming from.

Quote from: MapleBBQChicken on September 30, 2026, 05:22:27 PMI think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

I don't recall anyone saying we should cancel the rest of the season and just have Trinity and Wesleyan play for the title. We've all pretty much said what you said "Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far".

Of course upsets can happen. Trinity lost to Colby last year and Wesleyan has dropped a game to one of the Maine teams in each of the past four years. That doesn't change the fact that Trin and Wes are clearly at the top of the league this season. Most (all?) who've watched the games, as well as the computer ratings, see them leading the field by a wide margin.

Could Trinity lose to Williams this weekend, or at Tufts, or at Middlebury? Of course. Could Wesleyan drop yet another head-scratcher to a Maine school or a Little Three game? Absolutely. But it's disingenuous to pretend that they're not heavy favorites in every game they play until the regular season finale. Also, it's not just about the Bants and Cards; I think given how close teams 3-7 are even one upset loss by Trinity or Wesleyan would still put them a game clear of the rest of the pack once they start beating up on each other.

If we're not going to talk honestly about who the best teams are then what are we discussing here, the U.S. News rankings, great spots to eat in Clinton, NY? Kudos to Ephsfan1 for making a bold pick. Anyone else willing to agree?

Quote from: Nescacman on September 29, 2026, 07:21:47 AMJust to level set expectations and get everyone used to the new reality, all that really matters as far as rankings and where your favorite team sits nationally relative to the NCAA tournament is NPI. Although we are about two weeks from the NCAA publishing their first official NPI ranking, there are sites that mathematically calculate a close approximation (their words, not ours) NPI ranking using similar formula's that the NCAA uses. SP+ and all of the other national rankings are interesting, but really meaningless.

Here is one of those simulated NPI rankings:

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

You can complain all you want but this is what the NCAA will use to select the 2026 play-off bracket. As a reminder, there are 29 automatically qualifiers ("AQ") and 11 at-large bids. As of right now, NPI only shows one team from the NESCAC qualifying, our AQ. Still a ton of football to play, obviously, but interesting.

NM

Great data Nescacman... it's a strange new world we're all entering and there's certainly a learning curve. For further illustration of how the NESCAC appears to be a two-horse race after just two weeks, take a look at the Hansen Ratings (which by the way projects a different NESCAC NPI leader) and their projected odds of earning a Pool A (automatic qualifying bid by winning the conference):

Trinity	49.5%
Wesleyan	37.0%
Williams	5.9%
Amherst	5.5%
Middlebury	1.7%
Tufts	0.3%
Colby	0.0%
Bowdoin	0.0%
Bates	0.0%
Hamilton	0.0%

The drop-off after the top two is staggering and frankly seems a little harsh, especially given that none of the top four teams have even played one another yet. But at the same time I can't say I really disagree at this point. We'll obviously know more about Trinity and Williams after this week.