Bracketology Projection

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 11, 2021, 09:58:17 PM

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FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 08:50:10 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 04:12:35 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM

Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.
Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.

Yes, there's a championship game. Technically Bethel could pick up a second loss before the MIAC champ game, as long as they are top of their division, they still have a Pool A shot with a win in the final week.

I'm just pointing out that right now Bethel is listed as a two loss team, when they are currently a 1 loss team.

Part of Wally's annual exercise is in part predicting who will win H2H matchups down the stretch, and projecting Pool C picks based on this. It's what makes it fun each week, as the data points shift. This model is saying we are looking at only real time data in terms of record.
Wally usually starts with the elimination table which is strictly for the pool C bids which is what I was doing (note the HCAC which has everyone eliminated but will still have a pool A team). I just tried to be a little more detailed by denoting who could still be a 1 loss at large and who has to have 2 losses. If a team gets in through pool A then they're no longer a factor in the chart (they'll be in gold). Looking at the color code on my original post, it's essentially white if they can be a 1 loss pool C, gray if they can only be a 2 loss pool C, and red if they must have more than 2 losses.

I didn't go through and see who still has to play who and will knock each other out though. That's a lot tougher to wade through with 1/3 of the season left. It will probably knock some teams from white to gray. I just took a look at the MIAC (it's a bit quirkier due to the divisions and championship game) and Carleton and Gustavus (still having to play St John's) are in the same boat as Bethel and would have to pick up a second loss to be pool C so should be gray on the next update (if they remain at 1 loss then they've won the conference and don't have to worry about pool C).

I'll take a look in the coming days and update it.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

hazzben

@FCGrizz ... makes sense, thanks for clarifying.

FCGrizzliesGrad

#32

1 loss means can be pool C with just 1 loss
2 loss means must have 2 losses to be pool C
Elminated means must have at least 3 losses to be pool C

Pool C eliminator update
These are the changes and notes I made since the last chart. Some conferences are clearcut, some have plenty of permutations left

CCC: UNE with 3rd loss
ECFC: Gallaudet 1st loss, 1 loss Gallaudet wins conference
MAC: FDU-Florham 3rd loss. Widener 2nd loss. Wilkes with 1 loss wins MAC if they stay at 1 loss.
MASCAC: No change
NEWMAC: no change
CC: Muhlenberg with 1 loss wins conference
E8: Utica 3rd loss.
LL: 4 teams fighting for first
NJAC: Salisbury with one loss wins NJAC even with a 2nd loss
PAC: 4 way tie for first currently
ASC: Howard Payne with 1 loss wins conference
ODAC: Ferrum 2nd loss.  W&L with one loss still wins ODAC with a 2nd loss.
SAA: no change
USAC: Huntingdon should have been red previously with 2 non-conference losses
HCAC: no change
MIAA: Olivet 3rd loss, Albion with 1 loss wins conference
NCAC: Wooster 3rd loss, Wabash 2nd loss, Denison with 2 losses wins conference
OAC: Heidelberg 2nd loss, Ohio Northern 3rd loss, Mount Union with a loss still wins conference
ARC: potential 3 way tie
CCIW: potential 3 way tie
MWC: Ripon 2nd loss
NACC: Concordia (WI) 2nd loss
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus 2nd loss, 1 loss Carleton wins conference,
NWC: Pacific 3rd loss
SCIAC: Cal Lutheran 2nd loss, Redlands with a 2nd loss still wins conference
UMAC: no change
WIAC: UWRF 2nd loss, Stout 2nd loss
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

MRMIKESMITH

Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Baldini

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Appreciate the efforts and also getting some conversation going. Looking at your bracket, the first thing that came to mind was how many flights you had in the first round. Seemed like a lot to me and all of them probably aren't needed. One other note, it would be very surprising to me if Greenville doesn't come out of the UMAC and is not playing North Central in the first game.

Again thanks for your efforts, it is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks. 

MRMIKESMITH

#35
Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 09:34:52 AM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Appreciate the efforts and also getting some conversation going. Looking at your bracket, the first thing that came to mind was how many flights you had in the first round. Seemed like a lot to me and all of them probably aren't needed. One other note, it would be very surprising to me if Greenville doesn't come out of the UMAC and is not playing North Central in the first game.

Again thanks for your efforts, it is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.

Thanks for the clarification regarding Greenville and Minn-Morris. I only have 3 flights in the 1st round in the travel Quad. There no way to avoid that unless you have UMHB vs. H-S and Linfield vs. Whitworth. Couldn't recall on today's podcast if it was noted if the committee will honor the two-year "guarantee" of not having conference opponents play each other 1st round. However, it was mentioned that non-conference rematches aren't out of the question (i.e. SAA vs. Huntingdon). Regarding Redlands, someone has to go to California or Redlands have to go somewhere. Regarding LaCrosse being in the travel bucket. I could have replaced them with Wheaton, but I think from a travel standpoint it made more sense. I also could have switch LaCross with Westminster and send any R1/R2 team to Redlands or had Redlands go to that R1/R2 team.

Baldini

Whitworth to Mary Hardin-Baylor, Redlands to Linfield. Hardin-Simmons plays Trinity and that is not a flight, I know you don't have Trinity, but that is probably the most likely SAA winner. Don't think a game is played in Southern California this year.

MRMIKESMITH

#37
Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 11:16:07 AM
Whitworth to Mary Hardin-Baylor, Redlands to Linfield. Hardin-Simmons plays Trinity and that is not a flight, I know you don't have Trinity, but that is probably the most likely SAA winner. Don't think a game is played in Southern California this year.

That's my thought process as well if Trinity (TX.) is Pool A Qualifier. However, someone has to go to Huntingdon or Huntingdon has to go somewhere, so that's another flight. Maybe the Committee repeats 2016 and has Wheaton go to Huntingdon or vice versa. Or have Huntingdon to WIAC 2nd Place. My goal is to  not have CCIW 1&2 and WIAC 1&2 faceoff until Semi's or Final.

Baldini

#38
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

Also, if Birmingham Southern did lose a tight game to Trinity they would be in the conversation for a C Pool bid and that would be an option without a flight. 

MRMIKESMITH

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

wally_wabash

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 25, 2021, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

RHIT to Huntingdon - definitely a flight. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Baldini

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2021, 05:16:10 PM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 25, 2021, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

RHIT to Huntingdon - definitely a flight.

Is it 500 miles or 600 miles?

wally_wabash

Still just the 500 miles as far as I'm aware, but maybe we'll get surprised when we see the pre-championship manual.   

I don't know what anybody gains by expanding the bus-allowable distance to 600 miles.  You could get a RHIT-Huntingdon first round game, but should that be a first round game?  I also don't know how 1100 miles round trip on a bus equates to a good student-athlete experience, which is something these championships are supposed to prioritize. 

The places that really need relief from wonky, out-of-logical-order matchups are out on the islands where an extra 100 miles doesn't really help to introduce more potential first/second round partners. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

crufootball

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2021, 07:14:02 PM
Still just the 500 miles as far as I'm aware, but maybe we'll get surprised when we see the pre-championship manual.   

I don't know what anybody gains by expanding the bus-allowable distance to 600 miles.  You could get a RHIT-Huntingdon first round game, but should that be a first round game?  I also don't know how 1100 miles round trip on a bus equates to a good student-athlete experience, which is something these championships are supposed to prioritize. 

The places that really need relief from wonky, out-of-logical-order matchups are out on the islands where an extra 100 miles doesn't really help to introduce more potential first/second round partners.

Somewhere I stumbled across the fact that in D2 the air travel rule is 600 miles, or at least it was. I agree that I am not sure how much that improves any situation but I did think it was weird that there rule was different than D3. I can only assume it because there are fewer teams in D2 so that 100 miles come in handy more often than it would in D3.

WW

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

By "current SOS" do you mean for opponents played to date? Or for opponents that remain on their schedule?