Top 25 discussion

Started by Pat Coleman, February 02, 2005, 12:01:07 AM

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Pat Coleman

The WBCA poll doesn't get it, then, in my opinion.

As you said, bear, "she hurt her team and the team should not be rewarded for playing and losing without her." She got punished. You also want to punish the team, which did nothing wrong. I guess I don't see that connection.

And I am more willing to overlook a starter out for a game because, as you say, often times it happens. It happens to everyone at some point and is more likely to even out than the unusual occurrences such as the ones highlighted.

Pat Coleman

By the way, you're talking about the same WBCA poll that's had to switch #1 teams a heck of a lot more often than we have this year. http://discus.d3hoops.com/discus/clipart/happy.gif" ALT=":-)" BORDER=0>

Plus they have at least one voter who got Trinity Conn. and Trinity Texas confused. And they have two voters in the East region (30-some teams) but none in the Central (too many national titles in that region, I guess).

Lloyd Christmas

I would guess the Trinity mix-up is more likely the fault of the poll counter rather than the voter. And having two voters in the East is no worse than having SIDs on a poll -- individuals who are primary responsible for creating positive publicity for their school. I'd like to think that all voters would be fair, but you opened this can of worms.

I wouldn't view having a static No. 1 as a good thing. A poll should be fluid, taking into account actual results, rather than entrenched conjecture on "what would have happened" if players x, y, and z were in the line-up.

Overall, I'd say that one poll is neither better nor worse than the other. At this point, I think the WBCA poll is a little more in line with my take. But Wilmington didn't show up on the radar last year until the postseason, so at the end of the day, polls are just fun for fans.

bearswatcher

Looks like Oshkosh went from the penthouse to the outhouse

Allen M. Karon

Lloyd--

In the case of Jen Kroll, she got her spot in voting on the WBCA poll as representative of the Central region before she resigned her post as coach of Chicago to take on the head job at St. Lawrence.  In a fair situation, Coach Kroll should have also resigned her spot as voter in the WBCA poll so that another coach from the Central region could have been chosen for the spot, but the WBCA does not require a coach to give up her voting spot for the year if she transfers schools during the season.

The Irrelevant Laundromat

I have no problem with voters taking into account the Jones situation when evaluating Southern Maine.  

What I do have a problem with is that some of the voters seem to be telling themselves that Southern Maine would have won one or both of those games.  If you're going to discount those losses, you pretty much need to throw them out the window completely.  

If you throw those two games out, I'm not sure what makes Southern Maine's resume any more impressive than a bunch of other teams.  And, yes, I'm taking their past performance into account.  Even with that I don't think they deserve to be at No. 4. Could they prove to be one of the top four teams in the country by season's end? Sure.  But I understand the poll as being a reflection of the voters' interpretation of how the teams currently stack up, not as a prediction of who will be there at the end.

Also, I agree that Wheaton should be ranked, but their situation will probably end up a lot like Dickinson's.  It took Dickinson longer than it should have to get ranked, because the voters were stuck on McDaniel and Johns Hopkins being the two best teams in the Centennial, but now Dickinson is ranked.  Like somene else said, if Wheaton keeps winning, the poll will take care of itself.

Lloyd Christmas

Allen,

Your right, she probably should have given up her spot. But I think it's silly of Pat to intimate that things are skewed out of proportion with the WBCA poll because of that (especially when his pollsters could raise an eyebrow, too). She obviously still knows plenty about the midwest and would hopefully vote correctly.  

Both polls suffer from subjectivity, but at this point, the WBCA seems to be grounded by actual events, rather than whimsy.

The Irrelevant Laundromat

Yikes, I meant that I didn't think Southern Maine deserves to be at No. 3, not No. 4, though No. 4 is too high as well.

Pat Coleman

Sure, Lloyd, but it's not the same as seeing the rankable teams in that region play or seeing their opponents play. And with solely eight SIDs out of almost 400 possible on the panel I have the luxury of selecting individuals whose teams are not in national contention on a regular basis, limiting the potential for intentional overranking.

Believe me, Lloyd, if I saw that I would nip it in the bud. I don't want the credibility of the poll put at risk. Sure, WBCA is grounded by actual events, resulting in polling by standings (i.e., "#1 Messiah") rather than polling by who the better team is.

Steve

Just to continue the argument the NCAA has USM 4th in the Northeast Region.  Not that anyone would say that NCAA does a great job ranking teams, but anyway.

1. Bowdoin 11-1 16-1  
2. Bates 17-1 18-1  
3. Wesleyan (Connecticut) 16-2 16-2  
4. Southern Maine 14-2 16-2  
5. Brandeis 15-2 15-2  
6. Emmanuel (Massachusetts) 14-2 16-2

Lloyd Christmas

As I've said before, Pat, I can't speak to the country as whole as well as you can (i.e., the un/worthiness of Messiah, etc.). The basis for my posts were strictly with the USM/Bates situation.

I think the proof will be in the pudding in the next poll. Assuming both teams win their remaining games this week, if Bates is ranked below USM in the d3hoops.com poll after Bates beat them head-to-head, beat the No. 1 team in the country (per d3hoops.com) pretty handily, have a better record, and (arguably) a stronger schedule, I think it will be evident there is a substantial disconnect between the d3hoops.com pollsters and the information they are expected to compute.

If there is a variable I am missing, I'd be curious to what it is. Even taking into account missing players, I would think it is tough to overcome the above facts.

We'll see.

Pat Coleman

We'll see what the voters intend to do with Bates and Bowdoin since they split with each other in similar fashions. Hey, I hear ya, it takes a leap of faith to believe that Southern Maine now is better than Bowdoin or Bates now, and not everyone is willing to make that leap. But we are ranking now, not November/December.

Steve, don't hurt your head too much comparing the NCAA regional rankings to any Top 25 poll. http://discus.d3hoops.com/discus/clipart/happy.gif" ALT=":-)" BORDER=0> They take different things into account.

Joel Gluskin

This is slightly off topic(although it does deal with a top 25 team), but Pat, I wanted to make sure you would see this.

I just got my Sports Illustrated in the mail. One of the "Faces in the Crowd" at the front of the magazine is Brandeis's Caitlin Malcolm.  Her picture is in the magazine plus about 5 lines about her recent play.  

The text is not available online, but I can reprint it, if its wanted.

Steve

Pat-I know, just thought I'd add fuel to the fire.

Pat Coleman

BTW, I see Stout beating Stevens Point this weekend, then Oshkosh yesterday, went without comment...