Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2019, 11:24:21 PM
It surely is good to have "The Kid" back on the boards!  +1!

Thanks, Ralph! Good to be back — and see folks like yourself still going strong!

A little sad discussion isn't as fruitful as it once was. I feel like when Bridgewater was king, other schools fans came out of the woodwork to enjoy in lighthearted discourse before and after BC games.

Maybe as we get closer to Saturday, more Jackets and Eagles will chime in with prognostications! 🤞

One question for everyone (maybe only Pat can answer this)...

With Bridgewater being #3 in the first regional rankings, what is the likelihood in the following scenarios:

1) BC hosts a first round game (if they finish 10-0)?
2) BC earns an at-large (if they fall to RMC, finishes 9-1)?

I thought I would kick off the discussion about the upcoming defacto ODAC championship game between the Eagles and Yellow Jackets. To be fair with a statistical comparison, I compiled the stats from their five common 2019 opponents (Emory & Henry, Ferrum, Shenandoah, Southern Virginia, and Washington & Lee). The team with the better stat is in red:

Bridgewater	|	OFFENSE	|	Randolph-Macon
38.8	|	Points Per Game	|	33.8
377.4	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	417.8
5.518	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	5.512
243.6	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	178.8
8.0	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	6.9
133.8	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	239.0
3.5	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.8
32:31	|	Time of Possession Per Game	|	35:43
		DEFENSE
10.0	|	Points Per Game	|	20.6
257.4	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	320.0
4.0	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	5.5
143.6	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	180.0
4.9	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	6.1
113.8	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	140.0
3.2	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.9
2.6	|	Sacks Per Game	|	1.2
+4	|	Turnover Margin	|	+12

As you can see, both teams VERY close on the offensive side of the ball. RMC gains 40 more yards a game, but BC scores 5 more points per game. What I think is most interesting is that the two teams "Total Yards Per Attempt" is so close I had to extend that stat out to the thousandths (X.XXX) to break the tie. Otherwise, BC is better passing, while RMC is better rushing. Coin flip on the offenses.

Defensive wise, the Eagles have the edge: half as many points given up per game, twice as many sacks, and better defending the pass and run (per game and per attempt). The Yellow Jackets have a massive edge with turnover margin... +12 versus the Eagles at +4.

This is going to be one heck of a game between two proud programs. I give BC the edge with home field advantage and their defense -- but if RMC forces more turnovers, and they can remain productive with their rushing attack -- then this game could come down to the last possession. If the Eagles continue to play like they have the last two weeks against quality opponents (W&L and E&H), my prediction is Bridgewater 30, Randolph-Macon 24.

What say you?

Two huge games involving the top four ODAC teams. Anyone care to pick? I will go...

BC 42 - E&H 31

W&L 30 - RMC 28 (upset!)

Admittedly, I like framing success (or failure) with context. One of the many things I have learned from Coach Clark is to celebrate those successes when they come your way -- as it may help with perception and understanding down the road.

This year's 7-0 start by Bridgewater had me thinking about where they were last year at this time. They played six of their seven opponents this season in 2018 -- so the following context is looking at those six games in 2019 compared to 2018. First, BC went 3-3 last year (of course, 6-0 this year). Secondly, and what I think is remarkable and worth noting, is that the Eagles have a combined point difference/spread of 165 from 2018 to 2019 in those six games:

Opponent	|	2018	|	2019	|	Pt Diff
Gettysburg	|	BC by 17	|	BC by 31	|	+14
Stevenson	|	SU by 12	|	BC by 15	|	+27
Shenandoah	|	BC by 8	|	BC by 18	|	+10
Hampden-Sydney	|	HSC by 21	|	BC by 44	|	+65
Ferrum	|	BC by 21	|	BC by 43	|	+22
Washington & Lee	|	W&L by 10	|	BC by 17	|	+27
TOTAL	|		|		|	+165

Two points suggesting the Eagles road this season has been tougher than in 2018:

   * Four of the six games this season were road games for Bridgewater (compared to four home games in 2018)
   * Three of the six Bridgewater opponents listed above have winning records this season, while only two had them in 2018 

For even more context, this is the first time in Bridgewater history that this kind of turnaround has occurred from season to season. Even from the 1998 season to 1999, when the Eagles finished with 0-10 and 5-5 records, respectively -- they didn't have the positive point difference/spread like they do this season (in each of their games). Same goes for 1999 and 2000, when Bridgewater went 5-5 and 10-2, respectively.

I challenge the likes of Pat Coleman and Ralph Turner to find a team this season (or even recently) that has this kind of turnaround. 

Lastly, I'm celebrating this type of success (and this particular stat) because it will most likely end next weekend. The Eagles defeated Emory & Henry 53-13 (+40) in 2018 -- and that was in Bridgewater. The Wasps have obviously improved as well this season, and they are hosting BC in this year's bout. As much as I would enjoy a BC blowout (41 or more), I have a feeling this game will come down to the last couple of possessions.

Go Eagles!

Since I used to be considered "Mr. Statistician" for Bridgewater, I might as jump back into it... 

I calculated an interesting stat earlier in the week, once I saw Bridgewater had a very balanced team with the ODAC's best scoring offense and scoring defense. A recipe the Eagles had back in 2000 to 2005 when we had ODAC (and NCAA playoff) success.

NCAA stats showed the Eagles as having the #17-ranked offense (42.8 PPG) and the #12-ranked defense (12.0 PPG). So I calculated where Bridgewater ranked when it came to how much they were outscoring their opponents (30.8 PPG):

   #1) 49.0 - Mount Union (55.8 scoring offense / 6.8 scoring defense)
   #2) 43.5 - Mary Hardin-Baylor (51.0 / 7.5)
   #3) 38.4 - Wheaton (45.7 / 7.3)
   #4) 36.6 - Linfield (52.0 / 15.4)
   #5) 35.5 - North Central (48.5 / 13.0)
   #6) 34.5 - Hope (52.8 / 18.3)
   #7) 34.0 - St. Thomas (47.7 / 13.7)
   #8) 33.8 - Hardin-Simmons (47.3 / 13.5)
   #9) 32.3 - Wartburg (48.6 / 16.3)
   #10) 30.8 - Bridgewater (42.8 / 12.0)

As you can see, the Eagles came in at #10 in the country. All teams except for Bridgewater and Hope are ranked in the latest D3football.com poll:

  #1 - Mary Hardin-Baylor
  #2 - Mount Union
  #5 - Wheaton
  #7 - North Central
  #12 - Wartburg
  #15 - Hardin-Simmons
  #18 - St. Thomas
  #24 - Linfield
  NR - Hope
  NR - Bridgewater

Also, all of those teams listed above (except Bridgewater and Hope) have made the NCAA playoffs at least once in the past three years.

I would like to think there is "Hope" that Bridgewater will still be playing football in late November.

Good to be back (online)! Even though I've been MIA, I still watched/followed every Bridgewater game since the mid-2000s.

What an exciting year for the Eagles! Although we are riding a 13-year ODAC crown drought, a couple of those years we were only a touchdown away from being the champions. I would like to think that our run from 2000 to 2005 pushed other ODAC schools to improve (coaching, facilities, recruiting, etc) -- and then RMC, HSC, E&H, and W&L have all shared time at the top of the conference from 2006 to 2018.

It certainly wasn't easy for Mike Clark to maintain the success the teams at BC had  from 2000 to 2005, but I bet he would agree that his team's success (so far) this season has been once of his biggest accomplishments as a coach. Not easy having success, then struggling (although never less than 4 wins in a season), then coming back in 2019 to chase a championship.

Still a lot of football to be played to decide who will represent the ODAC in the NCAA playoffs this year:

   * BC @ E&H - 11/2
   * W&L @ RMC - 11/2
   * RMC @ BC - 11/9

Regarding today's game between Bridgewater and Washington & Lee...

   * The Generals defense came up huge holding the Eagles offense to FGs on three of their five scoring drives in the first half
   * The Eagles defense stifled the Generals #1-ranked rush offense (Nationally - 337.2 YPG), allowing only 153 yards on the ground
   * Take out W&L's two big plays (56-yard rush TD, 38-yard pass TD) -- the Generals only mustered 104 total yards of offense and 0 points
   * BC QB Jay Scroggins connected with 10 different receivers on the day (a Bridgewater record?) for 265 yards passing
   * Scroggins threw his first INT of the year in the 3rd quarter -- having gone 119-for-167 (71.3% pass comp) and 17 TDs before the INT

Good luck to the Eagles! 🦅

Quote from: theaprof on December 12, 2012, 12:45:08 PM
I heard a rumor that there will be no Stone Street Station this year?  Is that true?  I hope not.

Unfortunately, this is correct.

Most of the "main players" are not able to attend because of work or family reasons.

The plan is to be back in 2013 - watching Bridgewater play a purple team.

Quote from: Matt Barnhart (kid) on December 09, 2012, 02:44:30 PM

• 2012: Washington & Lee lost to Hobart, 38-20 (first round)
• 2011: Hampden-Sydney lost to Centre, 51-41 (first round)
• 2010: Hampden-Sydney lost to Montclair State, 16-14 (first round)
• 2010: Washington & Lee lost to Thomas More, 42-14 (first round)
• 2009: Hampden-Sydney lost to Johns Hopkins, 23-7 (first round)
• 2008: Randolph-Macon lost to Mount Union, 56-0 (first round)
• 2007: Hampden-Sydney lost to Wesley, 45-27 (first round)
• 2006: Washington & Lee lost to Wilkes, 42-0 (first round)

I'm a numbers nerd, so I researched the last seven years of ODAC performance in the playoffs, and we have led for only 55 minutes and 7 seconds of the 480 minutes in the eight games. That means we've been tied or losing for more than 88% of the time.

All three instances where we led were when the ODAC was leading 7-0. We have never led a playoff game (since 2006) past the 7:44 mark of the second quarter, and we've never had a game tied during a second half.

"Stone Station" rollin' down to Salem this weekend?

Nine straight years of both teams being "purple" - Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Linfield, and now St. Thomas. Pretty cool!

Quote from: tigerfanalso on December 07, 2012, 10:43:08 AM
Could an "all star" team from the ODAC compete with them?

On paper, yes. But things like (lack of) continuity and coaches having only a couple weeks of preparation, wouldn't work out.

I'm afraid the days of a "Bridgewater" from the ODAC making noise in the playoffs are over:

• 2012: Washington & Lee lost to Hobart, 38-20 (first round)
• 2011: Hampden-Sydney lost to Centre, 51-41 (first round)
• 2010: Hampden-Sydney lost to Montclair State, 16-14 (first round)
• 2010: Washington & Lee lost to Thomas More, 42-14 (first round)
• 2009: Hampden-Sydney lost to Johns Hopkins, 23-7 (first round)
• 2008: Randolph-Macon lost to Mount Union, 56-0 (first round)
• 2007: Hampden-Sydney lost to Wesley, 45-27 (first round)
• 2006: Washington & Lee lost to Wilkes, 42-0 (first round)

The ODAC's best chance of a win is someone finishing 10-0 during the regular season, and hosting a first round playoff game versus the USAC champion.

Go Eagles!

Llama, Skoal, bcphotos, oilcan-

What are the Stagg Bowl plans?

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 12, 2011, 11:32:52 PM
At the end of the season, I think that Hardin Simmons is a strong 3rd best team in the ASC and might be the 5th best team in the South.

I wouldn't be so quick in crowning Hardin-Simmons the 3rd best team in the ASC. I know they beat LC, but that game was a lot closer than the final score. Ugly 8-turnover game, with LC outgaining the Cowboys in Abilene. Also, LC beat two teams that Hardin-Simmons lost to (MC and ETB).

I say this knowing you've probably seen LC and Hardin-Simmons in person, which I haven't. But 5th-best in the region? Ehh...

Just sent Ralph my final regular season poll. As I told him in the PM, I think the top 7 teams are "obvious" ... the order of them is what is debatable.

I will be interested in what the other voters think of the "bottom 3".

The south region playoff bracket (assuming most, if not all, the teams are south region teams) will be very interesting.

Very much off topic (with the Eagles 5-4, don't be surprised )...

I was in Indianapolis this past week, and I stopped by the NCAA Hall of Champions. For those of you who have never been, it's attached the NCAA Headquarters - and has displays for each of the 23 NCAA sports. What was cool was, the NCAA football display (for all Divisions) featured Mount Union: