Record vs. ranked is being thrown about, but remember, that criteria isn't applicable in developing the first rankings of the year.  As such, that column in the regional data sheet is left blank the first week. 

(BTW, there must be a mix up, because the men's New England and South Atlantic data sheets weren't updated--it's still the data sheets from the last rankings of 2013.)

The combination of the simplicity of the SOS formula that is used and the seeming heavy weight the committee places on SOS, results in inaccurate assessment and ranking of teams at times, IMO.  I am all for considering strength of schedule, but I prefer it to be done with critical analysis and judgment not an overly-simplistic formula. But if you are going to rely (an heavily at that) on an SOS formula, you really should have something more sophisticated than what they have.  I'm not a fan of the Masey or Bennett rankings either, as they so often don't pass my smell test, but their SOS would probably be a better option combined with lowering how much weight you place on it.

Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on October 22, 2014, 10:32:37 AMKenyon played a definite role there - OWU likes to play through the middle and their center backs completely that shut down.

That sounds like Kenyon.  Against Messiah in last year's Sweet 16 match, Kenyon really crowded and clogged the middle in their defensive half of the field (not just a centerback thing, but the entire team), forcing Messiah to advance the ball upfield mainly out wide.  And while Messiah has very good wingers (some of the best in D-III), it made their attacks much more predictable and thereby easier to defend.  When there's space to attack up the middle, the defense has so much more to worry about as the player with the ball could slot the ball forward or lay it off left or right, or spray it out to either wing to quickly and unpredictably change the point of attack.  Forcing the play out wide meant the point of attack couldn't be changed as quickly or easily, thereby making it easier for defenders to track players and get their positioning right.  It certainly was effective as they (Kenyon) execute it very well.

Quote from: SoccerFollower on October 21, 2014, 09:35:40 PM
Out of curiosity for the coast guard and Middlebury results, are tonight's games taken into consideration for the NCAA's ranking tomorrow?

No.  Only for games through Sunday (just like the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings).

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 21, 2014, 07:29:01 PMIt is better to lose to non-ranked teams than ranked ones, as long as you beat the ranked ones. Helpful to your record vs ranked opponents.

This is true.  Record versus ranked teams seems to be very important looking at regional rankings and at-large selections over the past decade.  Wins versus ranked teams can make up for extra losses that lower the win pct. The committee seems to want to know that you can play with the big boys more than they care that you lost a couple games you should have won.

Yea, I don't get the votes for Coast Guard.  Their schedule just doesn't merit inclusion in the Top 25. 

To teams with weak schedules and guady records:  If you are that good, but don't have the schedule to prove it, tough!  You have the NCAA tournament to put up or shut up.  And if you win a couple tournament games and turn some heads, you'll get the plaudits at that time and they will be deserved.  Until then, tough!

Transylvania had a couple years where they made noise in the tournament despite a weak schedule that, IMHO, didn't merit Top 25 consideration.  But usually these teams either don't even make it out of their conference tournament or flop in the NCAA's.

Maybe not as egregious , but I didn't understand Luther's Top 10 ranking in September given who they had played.  And I find Whitworth at No. 9 to be ridiculous--they're getting a lot of mileage out of an opening weekend 1-0 win at Wheaton.

I would think that Methodist (10-2-1) would be in the mix for the final couple spots.

Quote from: Corazon on October 18, 2014, 10:38:08 PM
Thanks for the feedback. wow. Clipped running away from the goal should never happen.

How many do you think we get into the NCAAs?  This is where the NESCAC parity and strength of schedule works against us.

How do you figure that the parity and SOS counts against the NESCAC?  Parity, depth, and high SOS has always been the case for the NESCAC and they've always gotten their share of at-large berths.  There has always been a more than twice as many conferences as Pool C at-large berths--that is, less than one Pool C berth for every two conferences.  The NESCAC almost always gets 2 at-large berths, and sometimes 3 while the great majority of conferences don't get any at-large berths. I'm not saying the NESCAC have gotten more than they deserved, but I'm not seeing how parity, depth, and high SOS has worked against the NESCAC when they regularly get the most at-large berths besides the UAA.

The NCAA committee loves SOS and they love wins vs. ranked teams.  Their rankings and at-large selections reflect this year after year.  So SOS can't work against you.  And with so many schools in the New England region resulting in 11 spots in the ranking, the NESCAC will get enough teams in the rankings that the top ones will have the wins vs. ranked to combine with the SOS.  Sure, almost all years there are some teams in the rankings that probably don't deserve it over the next NESCAC team, but those are the spots in the rankings that are not going to get at-large berths anyways.

I really think a case could be made for Calvin being as good an option for No. 2 as anyone.  I think the D3soccer.com voters have underrated them because of the two early losses.  This week would be a perfect opportunity for the voters to bump Calvin up to the middle of the Top 10 given the teams above them that have tied and/or lost this week, but somehow I think No. 8 would be as far as they'll jump from their current No. 12. 

Well, so much for Kenyon moving to No. 1.  Wabash matched them in a defensive duel (only 8 shots for each side), and netted the games lone goal in the 70th minute.  My take is that Kenyon was a little overrated (their schedule has not been that challenging) and that Wabash is maybe a little better than I gave them credit for, but as the comprehensive defeat to Ohio Wesleyan shows, probably not Top 25 material either.  This is going to make the Top 25 vote very interesting.  Certainly opens the door for F&M, Trinity, and Oneonta St. to grab some 1st and 2nd place votes if they can win their weekend games, although it's most likely that Messiah retains enough votes at the top to stay No. 1.

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2014, 10:36:08 PMYou should have seen some of his d3soccer.net posts.

Now those were the days!  Was kinda feeling nostalgic for the old message board and decided to come out and play a little the past couple days!

Quote from: Cheesehead Henry on October 15, 2014, 10:13:10 PM
UW-Platteville beats Loras 1-0 in OT.

Wow. You know, I've been seeing it and saying it for a few weeks now. This isn't the Loras team we've seen in the past few years. They just couldn't find the back of the net tonight and UW-Platteville punished them for it. Loras had multiple opportunities and just couldn't put them away, most of them being chances they definitely should have had.

Such a strange season with last year's runner-up Rutgers-Camden having 6 losses already, semifinalist Williams having a 1-4-1 stretch that has them playing catch-up, semifinalist Loras struggling and far from dominate despite a decent overall record, Ohio Northern with six losses already, and one of the top programs over the last 10 years York barely able to win a quarter of the games as 4-6-4 and in danger of missing their conference playoffs.

Given that Kenyon came 28 seconds from the same fate as Messiah, against a similar quality side (Denison at 5-6-1 vs. a tougher schedule, Stevenson at 9-5-2 against a softer schedule), with similar domination statistically (Kenyon 21(7)-5(3) shot(SOG) advantage, Messiah 26(4)-4(0) shot(SOG) advantage), I'd say voters would be justified going either way.  However, I'd guess most will only see 2OT win and 2OT tie, and go with the winner.  However, both teams still have another game this week.  Both should pick up wins, as Wabash was totally dominated by a border-line Top 25 Ohio Wesleyan, but who knows.  The other question is how much Trinity (Tx.) and F&M will benefit from Kenyon's close-call and nab some first place votes of their own if they can take care of their business yet this week.  It will be interesting to see what the voters do.

Quote from: backyarddawg on October 14, 2014, 11:54:32 PM
Any respect for Eastern University yet?

They now sit at 10-2 with wins over York (4-1) and tonight against conference rival Misericordia (1-0 2 ot).  Their only blemishes were on the road at RUC where Camden scored early and a slip up against Albright.  Definitely a team which seems to be peaking and getting unnoticed.  Not a top 10 team yet but definitely someone with their remaining schedule who could finish 15-2 on the year with their only tough game remaining is King's.

Eastern's problem is their weak schedule.

     Opponents' avg. winning pct. .491 (to date)      
     Opponents w/ winning records: 5 of 12 (to date)

And those numbers will be even lower (closer to .450) at the end of the regular season as their remaining opponents are a combined 23-41-8 (.375).  They need to win the Freedom AQ as it's questionable if they'd snag an at-large berth even at 16-3-0 (after a Freedom final loss) with such a low SOS.  5 or so years ago the NCAA decided make teams with SOS's under .500 ineligible for the regional rankings (and by extension at-large selection), but reversed that decision after the first two (of three) regional rankings that year (Dominican and Swarthmore were high profile teams missing the cut).  But it's a great illustration of how important the NCAA takes SOS. But we'll know soon enough (next Wednesday) when the regional rankings come out how the committee rates them given their high win pct. but low SOS.

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2014, 06:55:58 PM

York falls to Frostburg St. 3-2...

York is now flirting with missing out on the CAC six-team tournament.  UN-believable!