PN, I've wondered the same thing often, but never did a deep dive to try to develop a theory.  And I won't be doing it at this moment either.  What I will say . . .

(1) It's hard to compare the Liberty League to the UAA because of how the UAA is spread across so many regions.  Not to mention, the UAA has simply been a stronger conference in recent memory.

(2) The NESCAC over the past decade or so has become the strongest conference in the nation and far ahead of all but the UAA (and maybe the Centennial in some years).  That in and of itself makes a comparison between the two conferences less insightful, but another big/significant difference is that the NESCAC dominates their region while the LL has to share Region III honors with the SUNYAC and Rochester with their perpetual tournament berth.  This simply means that there are fewer teams genuinely fighting for a spot in the rankings and at-large berths in Region I and it's dominated by NESCACs.  What this means is that the NESCAC schools can pick up more wins and ties versus ranked opponents and can do it just be playing their conference schedule (and playoffs).  With the SUNYAC in their region, LL teams have much fewer chances for these crucial wins/ties against ranked teams unless they schedule SUNYAC schools and besides Oneonta and Cortland, who knows which other SUNYACs will be ranked in a given year (just like how would you know which LL teams would be most beneficial to have on your schedule ahead of time).  I imagine if you took the top 7 teams that missed getting ranked in Region III, they would be on the whole better than the next seven in Region I, but for Region III and LL teams, having a deeper region (even if not as strong at the top) provides no benefit to their RvR, but it does add additional risk of picking up blemishes.

(3) I think the better comparisons/contrasts to look into are with the Centennial, MIAC, SUNYAC, also the NCAC (and this year the OAC).

Sometimes I wonder if it's a matter of too much parity within the league each year instead of just over time.  In other words, would it be better if just 2-4 LL teams rose to the top in any given season.  It's great that from year to year different programs can be successful, but if too many are good but not great in a given year and beat up on each other, it hurts your chances in a region shared with the SUNYAC.  Without actually studying data, I have the sense that most of these other conferences (1) don't typically have as many teams in the mix year-in, year-out and (2) don't have as much or as quick turnover of who the top teams are from year to year.

If someone did a deep dive, you'd need to look at out-of-conference scheduling league-wide versus those other conferences.  The Region III schools have less scheduling options (with no schools to the north or west) than Region IV and V schools, but Region VIII schools (home of the MIAC) has the issue of distance.

Well, I don't have the time or energy to really dig into it even though it has fascinated and perplexed me over the years.  Well, I'm just rambling and talking off the top of my head FWIW.

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 09, 2023, 10:24:35 PM
Paul Newman's NCAA Tournament Trivia Corner

Has there ever been another NCAA Champion besides Conn College to win the title after going to PKs in a 1st round match?  Salem State was the opponent.

Bonus question... Has there been another team to advance on PKs in the 1st round and then win the title via PKs in the national final?

I knew that was never the case for Messiah in their 11 titles, although they did need OT in their tournament opener (2nd Round) in 2005 against Wesleyan (CT) before making a dominate run to the final where they claimed their fourth title over Gustavus Adolphus 1-0. 

The two possibilities that came to mind were Middlebury in 2007 (who I thought might be the answer to the bonus question) and Bethany (WV) in the mid-90's.  So I had to look it up.  Alas, Middlebury did score goals in the early rounds (had a 1st Round bye) that year before their scoreless Final Four triumph via PKs. 

But Bethany did not let me down.  They opened with a PK advancement over Greensboro after a 1-1 tie and proceeded to claim the championship by the narrowest of margins in the history of the D-III men's soccer tournament: 1-0 in 2OT in the Sweet 16, 2-2 (4OT)(PK adv) in the Elite 8, 0-0 (2OT)(PK adv) in the semifinal, and then a 1-0 2OT win in the Final over Hopkins.  The whole tournament that year was marked by 1-goal margins, overtimes, PKs.  In the Elite 8, three games went to OT, two to PKs, and the one non-OT game was a 1-0 victory.  Only one of the semifinalists had won a game by more than a single goal in regulation.  Bethany might be the most improbable champion of all-time.  They entered the tournament at 13-5-1 and came into the Final Four with more losses than the other three teams combined: UW-Oshkosh (R.I.P.) was undefeated, host Trenton State (now TCNJ) had a single loss, and Hopkins had a pair of losses.  They played a man down in the 2nd Half and OT of the opening round game.  In the Elite 8 they got paired with the defending champion and powerhouse UC-San Diego (3 titles in previous 6 years) who looked on pace for back-to-back titles with two tournament shutouts bringing their win total to 21.  Here's a documentary about their championship with some footage of their tournament games: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L302vvY7_RM

I then had to see if another team pulled off the feat and found 1984 Wheaton (Ill.) who needed PK's to get past Rockford in the opening round en route to their first national championship.  (Historic Factoid: prior to 1991, teams were awarded a win or loss instead of ties in games decided by PKs, with the victor having a goal added to their final score.)  Wheaton were almost the answer to your bonus question as the Thunder needed three overtimes periods to defeat Brandeis in the final, 2-1.  I don't think there's any other case of a national champion starting and finishing their title run with PK victories besides Conn Col. in 2021.  If I'm not mistaken, only four finals have been decided on PK's.

Quote from: SimpleCoach on November 08, 2023, 10:49:28 AM
So @PaulNewman and I got together to run through the brackets... and give shout outs to some folks on the boards...

The New Show - The Frigid Bracketology Episode

Hope you enjoy.  All meant in fun.

SC.

[poor man's Gregory Sager]

The UW-Platteville Pioneers logo has mining picks because one of the schools that merged to form the school had originally been called the Wisconsin Mining Trade School.

SUNY Poly (short for SUNY Polytechnical Institute) used to be know as SUNYIT or SUNY Tech (short for SUNY Institute of Technology) before merging with another school in 2014.

The Alfred State mascot is an ox, not a bull (i.e, he's been castrated!).  In a 2018 rebranding of the athletic department, the ox, later named "Big Blue" was selected over a bear and a dog to be the new animal mascot to replace human characters Orvis the Pioneer and previously Pioneer Pete.

[/poor man's Gregory Sager]


It is interesting how the mascot for the Lake Forest Foresters is not a Forester but rather a black bear named "Boomer", but not dissimilar to Alfred State with the Pioneer name/Ox Mascot.

Quote from: d4_Pace on November 06, 2023, 07:29:58 PM

Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 06, 2023, 06:51:44 PM

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 06, 2023, 06:24:22 PM
Tufts will like their draw and if each wins a couple the drumbeat for finally getting Messiah vs Tufts will grow louder.  Would that match happen in Grantham or is there a conflict with the women? 

Being an odd-numbered year, the women have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Round weekend, which is why Messiah men are on the road to Lynchburg this coming weekend.  However, that mean's that the men have hosting priority for the Sectional weekend and Messiah would surely host their Sectional if they advance. 

So I'm kind of happy about the way that worked out, as I probably wouldn't have been able to get to games this weekend anyways because of my kids' games.  However, the following weekend should be wide open (I say hesitantly, knowing I am probably forgetting something or just don't know about something quite yet!).  Besides, which game would I rather see in person?  Messiah vs. Baruch or a Top 25 game?

FW I figure you are the expert on this. I understand the alternating priorities for men and women teams. But why could Amherst whose teams play on separate fields not have hosted both.

I think it's one of those things where it's a slippery slope if you start allowing exceptions to the general rule, even if in situations where the basis for the rule isn't an issue.  It could become an administrative mess to have to review all the requests for an exception and then log/track all the approved exceptions.  And it would open the door to other schools crying "Unfair!".  And it's not just about the fields, it is also about staffing and making sure both tournaments are well hosted and maybe even things like adequacy of parking, locker rooms, etc.

If Amherst would be allowed to do that, then soon you might have other schools trying to prove that they have an adequate alternate field to host tournament games and asking for the same exception as Amherst.  I think I've heard that Chicago and some other schools have two different fields (usually one grass, one turf) that get used for regular season games and could make a case for dual hosting.  And there surely are numerous schools like Messiah who have very high quality practice fields that could temporarily be lined with bleachers for the hosting games.  And some of these school can legitimately pull it off from a staffing/quality standpoint, but again, how do you review and determine who can pull that off?

It's just simpler to apply the rule consistently without allowing for exceptions, I imagine.

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 06, 2023, 06:24:22 PM
Tufts will like their draw and if each wins a couple the drumbeat for finally getting Messiah vs Tufts will grow louder.  Would that match happen in Grantham or is there a conflict with the women? 

Being an odd-numbered year, the women have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Round weekend, which is why Messiah men are on the road to Lynchburg this coming weekend.  However, that mean's that the men have hosting priority for the Sectional weekend and Messiah would surely host their Sectional if they advance. 

So I'm kind of happy about the way that worked out, as I probably wouldn't have been able to get to games this weekend anyways because of my kids' games.  However, the following weekend should be wide open (I say hesitantly, knowing I am probably forgetting something or just don't know about something quite yet!).  Besides, which game would I rather see in person?  Messiah vs. Baruch or a Top 25 game?

Quote from: bshu23 on November 06, 2023, 04:19:55 PM

Quote from: Midwest Fan on November 06, 2023, 04:08:41 PM
And North Central (MN) looks to continue their season as they appear on the bracket to be lining up against UW-Eau Claire. Kidding of course, but comical how this team continues to appear randomly(?) throughout NCAA's rankings, materials, etc.

Additionally, I'd be curious to hear any thoughts from the group on if there were any teams you felt were robbed of a bid and vice versa. Looking forward to the tourney!

Hi Midwest Fan, I think you have the wrong North Central. It is actually North Central (IL) from CCIW that is playing UW-Eau Claire.

Midwest Fan is well aware of that.  That's why he said "Kidding of course".  You see, earlier in the season the USC Regional Rankings had North Central (MN) in their rankings which obviously was a mistake due to confusing the two schools.  And then today, apparently the NCAA originally had North Central (MN) in their bracket instead of North Central (IL) before getting it corrected.  So that's what Midwest Fan is referring to and making light of.

I'm just glad to see that they got Johns Hopkins spelled correctly in the bracket after constantly having it spelled without the "s" on "John" in all their Regional Rankings.

Quote from: d4_Pace on October 30, 2023, 05:55:21 PM

Quote from: Bucket on October 30, 2023, 11:25:53 AM

Quote from: Kuiper on October 30, 2023, 11:13:27 AM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 30, 2023, 10:30:50 AM
Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents.

I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting how different perspectives are about how far things are away from each other in the Northeast than in Region X.  The distance from Bowdoin to Boston for a weekday game is pretty modest compared to some of the distances teams in Region X travel routinely on weekdays.  I always assumed the reason some NESCAC teams schedule weaker non-conference opponents is because they believe they won't need the SoS bump given the NESCAC conference schedule. After all, Bowdoin's SoS of .555 (as of last Wednesday) would be one of the higher numbers in Region X.

I'm sure I will get blasted for being elitist, but I can promise you that NESCAC schools do not think about SOS implications when scheduling mid-week out-of-conference games.

The primary considerations are—and always will be—missed class time, time away from campus, and budget.

And yes, I agree that it is ludicrous for (many) schools with billion (!)-dollar endowments to be crying about budgets, but it's a factor when trustees limit endowment draws to fund annual operating costs. At Middlebury, since the start of the pandemic, we have been dealing with 20-50 percent cuts to departmental operating budgets pegged to 2019 levels, this at a time with corresponding inflation pressures. It's a double whammy.

And while I am not privy to the athletics department budget numbers, I feel confident in stating that they have not been exempt and that travel budgets have been impacted, just like everything else.

This isn't elitist but it's flat out wrong. When I was on the staff our number one goal was to make the NCAA tournament and creating a schedule that would maximize our chance to do that was a huge consideration. The main way to do that was to make a schedule that we thought we maximized our SOS and winning percentage. Obviously we weren't going to drive 8 hours on a Tuesday, but SOS was a big factor.

Back before everyone figured out the SOS puzzle, it sure seemed like Justin Serpone was one step ahead on knowing how to schedule to maximize SOS while limiting risk of picking up losses.  When the home and away multipliers were still being used, Amherst scheduled more away games than homes games finding the risk-reward sweet spot as an away game against a mediocre team (very minimal risk of a loss) could help your SOS more than a home game against a good opponent (considerably higher risk, even if moderate, of a tie or loss).  I don't say that as a knock on Amherst, but just to reinforce d4_Pace's assertion that some NESCAC schools very much do consider SOS when doing their non-conference scheduling.

Yeah, as a soccer fan first and foremost (though liking all sports), it's been nice to not have to pay admission for soccer games until playoff time.  But I keep waiting and expecting that to change.  Our family has been to Montclair State twice to see Messiah play, but I had forgotten about paying admission.  Actually, I think the second time there it rained, so we watched from the parking garage as do many MSU students (alum?) and wouldn't have paid anyway.

Yes, conference tournament results are considered.  Per the selection criteria, they are not given more weight for being conference tournament games. From the NCAA's viewpoint, they are just additional regular season contests. And there is no penalty for missing your conference tournament (IIRC, RPI was selected one year despite not making the Liberty League playoffs).  Beyond the chance of winning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament, making your conference tournament can also have the benefit of providing a chance to increase your SOS and pick up some wins against regional ranked teams.  Of course, the opposite can happen as well.  Depending on your conference and/or who you get paired with, it can lower your SOS.  And unless you win the conference tournament and AQ (in which case selection criteria is irrelevant), you will probably be lowering your winning pct. and might pick up a loss (or tie) to a ranked team. So unless you go on and win your conference tournament, your at-large resume is probably worse for having participated in the conference tournament, but the same will be true for most other teams needing an at-large berth.

Whether the scenario you laid out could actually happen, it's theoretically possible even if the odds are rather low.  With the more at-large berths this year, the possibility does increase.  It would require the region to be considered strong and deep and for the previously ranked teams, at least the ones in the bottom half of the rankings, to be closely clustered with little separation from the previously unranked teams (including the team of interest) that just missed the previous ranking.  And the team would need to defeat one or more regionally ranked teams in their conference tournament run.

A few things that I don't think have been mentioned or brought up yet on the message board . . .

(1) Due to the dissolution of the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC) and the merger of the Colonial States Athletic Conference (CSAC) and United East Conference (UEC), there are two less automatic berths (AQs) this year and thus two more Pool C at-large berths.  So this year's tournament field is comprised of 41 AQs, 1 Pool B at-large berth, 22 Pool C at-large berths.  That is significant.  I'm not sure it should change anyone's prediction of who is on the "bubble" for at-large selection, but it probably is more a shift from trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will make the cut to trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will be left out.

(2) There are discussions about pushing the NCAA tournament back another week to increase the regular season by a week.  The motivation behind this idea, which would add a weekend to the regular season, is to give teams the opportunity to reduce the number of midweek games and increase the rest/recovery period between games.  While this could also allow teams to play more games if not already at the max. permitted, that is NOT the intent.

(3) For NCAA rankings and at-large selections, a change is being discussed in which winning percentage based on a tie being worth half of a win would be replaced by a point-based system like typically used in standings in which ties are worth 1/3 of wins (i.e. wins = 3 pts, ties = 1pt.).  This is partially being driven by the increase in ties as a result of the elimination of overtime during the regular season.  Beyond each team's winning pct., this would impact Strength of Schedule (SOS) which uses Opponents' Winning Pct. (OWP) and Opponents' Opponents' Winning Pct. (OOWP).

The latter two items, if eventually adopted, wouldn't be in effects for another year or two or more depending on how long discussions and research into the issue drags on.

Something that should be kept in mind when looking at the NCAA Regional Rankings and starting to think about Pool C at-large berths . . .

Due to the dissolution of the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC) and the merger of the Colonial States Athletic Conference (CSAC) and United East Conference (UEC), there are two less automatic berths (AQs) this year and thus two more Pool C at-large berths.  So this year's tournament field is comprised of 41 AQs, 1 Pool B at-large berth, 22 Pool C at-large berths.

That is significant.  I'm not sure it should change anyone's prediction of who is on the "bubble" for at-large selection, but it probably is more a shift from trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will make the cut to trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will be left out.

Hopkins92 and MAF didn't mention it as a mid-week game to watch, but I think the LVC vs. E-town game is one to keep and eye on.  LVC is 6-1-0 on the season with their lone loss coming at F&M where they allowed a first-ever win over the Diplomats slip away in the final quarter hour after taking a 2-1 lead.  Despite a mediocre 3-2-2 record, E-town showed a lot of fight in their 2-3 loss to Messiah before defeating Scranton 2-1 to open Landmark play on the right foot.

LVC and E-town faced the same three opponents to open the season, swapping visiting St. John Fisher and Rutgers-Newark opening weekend before travelling to F&M.  LVC showed much better across those common opponents, picking up 4-0 and 5-0 wins before the agonizing loss to F&M.  E-town on the other hand went 1-1-1 with a 1-0 win (St. John Fisher), 2-2 tie (Rutgers-Newark) and 0-1 loss at F&M.

LVC has been ranked for the past two weeks by the coaches (USC), moving up to #13 this week.  I think this might be the first time the program has ever been ranked by the coaches.  In 2016, LVC was ranked for one week (Week 8) by D3soccer.com when they were 12-2-0 before being tripped up by a 5-10-1 Alvernia in their very next match. A low SOS kept them from ever being considered for an at-large berth that year, but they did win their first of back-to-back ECAC Championships to finish 18-4-0.  LVC's next best run was probably just two years ago when they were 12-3-0 entering their 10/26 tilt with F&M and regionally ranked by the NCAA (#8 of 8 in Region V).  A first-ever win over F&M might have earned them an at-large berth, but they fell 0-3 and although all teams ranked ahead of them in the region received berths, they probably never had a shot at #7 in the region (14-5-0, .567 SOS, 3-4-0 RvR).

Every other year it seems like LVC plays Messiah very tough, but a low SOS and inconsistency down the stretch in October has always kept LVC from reaching the NCAA tournament.  SOS might be a problem again for them this year despite adding Rutgers-Newark (who is having their worst season in years) and some other new additions to the schedule who are under-performing to date.

LVC's top player from two seasons ago, Lucas Strange, is back for a 5th year after missing last season.  He's posted 4 goals and 7 assists already.  And sophomore Nathan Prex, building upon his team leading 17 pts. (5g, 7a) last year, has scored 8 goals in the first 7 games, netting in all but one game so far. He tallied both goals against F&M.  And Jr. Aaron Weitzel is back after scoring 6 and 7 goals as a frosh and soph, respectively. So they have some firepower up top.  They have used the same starting line-up (6 upperclassmen + 5 soph) in all seven games.  Nine of the starters were full-time or part-time starters last year.  So who knows, maybe this is LVC's year to make some sort of a break through.  But there's a long way to go and a local rivalry game, even if E-town isn't world-beaters, should be an interesting test for LVC and one they need to win to continue to be taken seriously.

It's Messiah's Homecoming when Widener come to Grantham in two Saturday's.  So there will be a bigger than normal crowd for Widener to deal with.  On the other hand, Messiah has to deal with the distractions of Homecoming and some disturbances to their normal routine.  Despite being a Messiah alum and fan, the soccer fan in me wants to  see a competitive, compelling game, so I hope Widener proves to be a formidable opponent.  I still want and fully expect a Falcon win, but I still think there's some question marks around this year's squad and not sure they are at the point where they can consistently play like a Top 10 team.

North Central UNIVERSITY (Minn.) is in Region IX.  They have not appeared in the Region IX rankings (or receiving votes) any week this season.  Thus it is completely inexplicable how they would be listed as receiving votes in the national ranking.

If they were in the same region with North Central COLLEGE (Ill.) and they received votes in the regional rankings, then you could put that down to voter error/mix-up.  But that clearly is not what's happening.  So who knows what's happening, but it really is ridiculous.  Apparently there are some non-D3 soccer fans involved in the process of preparing and publishing the rankings, because otherwise that should/would be easily caught and corrected.

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on September 22, 2023, 04:09:44 PM

Quote from: paclassic89 on September 22, 2023, 03:02:37 PM
Messiah played Stevens on turf in the 2017 NCAA sectional semis.  Game was moved from Shoemaker due to heavy rain

Definitely happened, but, and I am only going on what I can see, the two turf fields seem to not have soccer markings. https://gomessiah.com/facilities/lacrosse-turf/9 and https://gomessiah.com/facilities/anderson-field/5  May be other fields that they have access. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Messiah+University/@40.1530403,-76.9885789,614m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x89c8e8c0b22d487d:0x85a6affc49f5bcd3!8m2!3d40.1576139!4d-76.9869025!16zL20vMDIxbmJy?entry=ttu 

However, they may have a way.

Yes, I know for a fact (I was there) that the 2017 Sectional at Messiah was moved to the turf Lacrosse Field.  You are correct that the lacrosse field has no soccer markings.  Looking at the highlight videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsKGygNDkhM, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skhODRk16NE), I'm guessing the 6-yd and 18-yd boxes were marked the old-fashioned way with chalk.  They are hard to see in the Sweet 16 match vs. Stevens, but easier to pick out in the Elite 8 match vs. Rochester.  Given they had moved the games to the lacrosse field in 2017, I think many of us figured we'd keep the 2018 Sectionals at home again.