Any comments on the effects of northern November weather on successful styles of play in the postseason? Is there any evidence that spread type offenses tend to break down in more frigid temperatures and northern locales thus affecting playoff success? Do the teams with playoff longevity show a distinct tendency toward a strong ground game and a stifling defense?
Quote from: Major Rev on October 13, 2007, 08:52:34 PM
Any comments on the effects of northern November weather on successful styles of play in the post-season?
Yes, warm weather teams have trouble up north. Concerning the Deep South, ETBU lost in OT at Lycoming in 2003 in near freezing weather. UMHB with its ground game was able to defeat MUC in Ohio in 2004. Wesley lost twice at UW-Whitewater (in 2005 on the ice, and in 2006 without the ice). The longest runs by (Deep) South Region teams have occurred when they were the #1 seeds, except UMHB.
Is there any evidence that spread type offenses tend to break down in more frigid temperatures and northern locales thus affecting playoff success?
The last Stagg Champion from the South Region was West Georgia in 1982 in a championship game played in Phenix City AL ("a suburb of Columbus, GA").
Do the teams with playoff longevity show a distinct tendency toward a strong ground game and a stifling defense?
Yes, but real offensive balance may be necessary in a tight game, e.g., WR Pierre Garcon for MUC in the 2006 Stagg. IMHO
I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! ;D
Quote from: smedindy on October 13, 2007, 09:17:48 PM
I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! ;D
Global warming. ;)
Quote from: smedindy on October 13, 2007, 09:17:48 PM
I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! ;D
But not as cold a Wisconsin!!!
I think that Jethro Pugh finally thawed out last season. :D
Ah, yes, but the coldest ambient temp at an NFL game was in Cincinnati (-59 with the wind chill). The Ice Bowl had a colder temperature, but not the wind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freezer_Bowl
Not that it means anything, but, just wanted to drop the knowledge.
Canadian teams laugh at our Wisconsin cold sob stories, you know! ;D
Offensive balance is nice as it is somewhat weather proof, but MUC's first 3 titles came with pass only offenses. The running game back then was a complete after thought and consisted of draw plays just to keep the D-line honest.
Capital has made the North Region finals in '05 and '06 (and lost to MUC by 3 pts both times) with a pass only spread offense.
Given that, let's say 85%, of D3 is based on cold-weather or moderately-cold states, I don't think weather is a big factor in relation to how teams perform against each other in the playoffs. (Obviously in an individual game it can be a factor, and it can have a greater impact on certain styles offense, sure)
The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.
I disagree with Ralph on warm-weather teams having trouble up north.
Also, I wouldn't consider Wesley's climate to be much different than, say, New York or New Jersey. It snows there. Not terribly different from Wisconsin, although an icy field bothered the Wolverines one trip out there. That happens though.
UMHB made that 5-road-game run to the Stagg in '04 with wins in Pa. and Ohio, the latter in snow.
Hardin-Simmons lost by 1 at Wittenberg years ago, 34-33 I think. Occidental lost a couple times at Linfield.
Although it's a pretty small sample size, the results of warm-weather D3 teams vs. cold-weather teams have more to do with the quality of the teams than the weather.
Hope that answers the original question. If you care to re-ask it with a twist, I will respond.
Wittenberg beat HSU in Abilene.
I don't consider western Oregon as being a "cold" weather climate relative to the Midwest. How much snowfall per annum does McMinnville (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=ICAO:KMMV&almanac=1) get?
The Wesley comment was because of the "sneaker bowl".
It is a very small sample size.
In Abilene? Even better.
My memory fails me on the "early years" sometimes.
I guess if we wanted to mince, Ralph, I'd say that snow doesn't necessarily = cold, but that with most of D3 being no further south than Virginia, which is a medium climate at best (Northeast Lite), I wouldn't expect it to have a great effect on how used to cold the players are.
I would expect the Texas and Cali guys to notice the difference, but we have seen some of them play well on the road (Oxy at Conc.-Moorhead in '04 was played in the Fargo Dome, I think, or I'd count that one too)
The original question, I guess being more about styles than native locales ... well, as noted, spread teams have had success in the playoffs.
Having played in the cold and never worn gloves (nor had a pick after Week 6), I can say that severe cold has an effect on games. Football is weird for how it begins in sweltering heat and ends in cold. The Stagg Bowl is usually chilly and windy.
Obviously, most of us have seen rain, snow, ice, wind or all of these things have an effect on football games, particularly passing and the kicking game (King's at Bridgewater comes to mind).
Generally though, in my time observing, the success of playoff teams in Division III has almost overwhelmingly been due to the strength of the teams involved and their play on particular days in question rather than factors like home/away, warm weather/cold weather, etc.
Thanks, K-Mack!
How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!
The original question comes out of the 1975 (that's right - 1975) Millsaps playoff experience. Having travelled with that team to play Colorado College in the quarters and Wittenburg in the semis, we saw two very different venues. At CC, in Colorado Springs, the high for the day was 37 F. We had practiced in 6 inches of snow the day before, but on game day it looked like the field had been vacuumed! The grounds crew had done an amazing job of creating a tremendous playing surface. Millsaps had All-American Ricky Haygood at QB who had broken 2000 yards in passing for the year (amazing back then) and WR Dees Hinton who had broken 1000. Colorado College was running an old-time wing-T offense which few players of the time had ever seen. And they had run it well that year. Millsaps wins 28-14 I think.
At Wittenburg it was a different story. Temperatures were in the high thirties again, but with melting snow on the field and snow/rain mix during the game. Wittenburg's ground game led by freshman David ? DOMINATED the Majors who never found "traction" on the field in about 4 inches of mud or in the game, going down 41-0 at halftime. There was some talk that Wittenburg had prepared for the muddy game with "mud cleats" and played "downhill" all afternoon. Wittenburg was merciful, though, and the game ended 55-21.
Back to the present -- does a South Region spread offense team like Millsaps or even a slightly more balanced team like Trinity or Mississippi College have as much chance in the playoffs as a crushing ground game/defensive team? I know that Mount Union is obviously off the charts in comparison to everyone else, but would an even EQUALLY talented spread offense team always be playing uphill in late November up north?
THUS is the field "tilted" toward the ground game?
I believe Rowan has run the spread very successfully for several years and they have been known to go deep into the playoffs.
I hate to answer questions with "depends", but in this case I think you have to. The question of weather and field conditions helping/hurting certain styles of play is really two separate factors. So when you say 'bad weather', do you literally mean just the weather factors (wind, rain, snow, temp)? Or more in general terms?
Because in my opinion, bad weather conditions versus bad field conditions affect the game differently.
In sloppy field conditions but decent weather, a passing offense a distinct advantage as the WR's know where they're going where as the DB's must react to the route. Advantage WR. Also, it's hard to get much push at the line of scrimmage in poor field conditions which makes rushing the passer more difficult, especially off the edge.
For the running offense, it comes down to the type of rush offense and specifically the type of runner. A speed/slashing type runner or complicated rush offense like the triple option would be at a disadvantage on a sloppy field. A power running game with simple blocking schemes (zone blocking) and a power RB like Whitewater would be better suited to a muddy field than a rushing team that runs a lot of misdirection or option like Springfield. I've also seen the effectiveness of the O-line in muddy conditions be dependent on the size/type of O-linemen. Having a distinct size advantage on a sloppy field helps since the blocking schemes tend to be more base/zone blocking anyway. Whereas a smaller but very athletic line like Augustana often has wouldn't get the same surge and trapping production they would normally get on a good field.
What kills a passing offense is very high winds and/or rain. Intense cold can also have an adverse impact if you're not used to it. Where as the weather really is no affect on running the ball.
In general, the actual playing surface conditions usually affect a running team more than a passing team. Where as the weather usually affects the passing game more.
How's that for tap dancing around the question?
I have always thought that weather is a convenient excuse if you get outplayed in the cold or the muck.
Thanks, hscoach, for some excellent tap dancing. Sounds like you've been through a lot of those conditions. The breakdown on the different types of running teams was also helpful.
Quote from: hscoach on October 15, 2007, 11:55:11 AM
What kills a passing offense is very high winds and/or rain. Intense cold can also have an adverse impact if you're not used to it. Where as the weather really is no affect on running the ball.
In general, the actual playing surface conditions usually affect a running team more than a passing team. Where as the weather usually affects the passing game more.
I found these to be the most helpful statements in general. I also think some other posts on the various topics about footwear in adverse conditions is true. Though it sounds almost trivial, the thought given to details like that can separate good programs from average ones.
The info about different specific teams was informative. That's one thing I'm really enjoying here on the message board is learning about conferences, regions, and teams. Thanks; good info.
I also thought smedindy's post about "convenient excuses" can be true as well. But my question has to do with equally talented spread and ground offenses.
PUSHING THIS FURTHER, K'MACK, any additional thoughts on the effects on DEFENSE beyond the comments about d-backs?
Quote from: K-Mack on October 15, 2007, 12:34:15 AM
The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.
Keith
I actually broke down NCAA representation for all levels to present to some of the kids in my program with regards to playing beyond high school to show them that AZ has little to offer but there was plenty of opportunity to play college football
AND get a great college education.
My numbers (which may be off but should give an idea) for D-III are: PA - 24, OH - 21, IL - 21, MA - 19, WI - 18, MN - 13, NY - 12, CA/IN/TX/VA - 9. There's your top eleven. Looks like a pretty cool climate grouping with a few exceptions. Until CA/TX and arguably VA you have almost 130 schools representing those first 7 states. I don't know if it helps much but there ya go.
Just looking at Stagg Bowls, and trying to discount the fact that MUC havily tilts the percentages in their run, the other competitors are decidedly "northern" schools as well with the exceptions of UMHB, Trinity, Bridgewater (I still say they're warm compared to the rest) and W Georgia, it's been pretty sparse.
RC, if you look at the distribution of schools in D3, I think you'll find this pretty much mirrors where all the schools are. There just aren't many D3 football schools outside of the "colder" climates.
Could the reverse be true of cold weather teams going to warm weather to play?
Especially in the beginning of the season. When teams like Miami used to always wear white at home to force visiting teams to wear dark colors in the heat.
Quote from: K-Mack on October 15, 2007, 01:54:33 AM
I would expect the Texas and Cali guys to notice the difference, but we have seen some of them play well on the road (Oxy at Conc.-Moorhead in '04 was played in the Fargo Dome, I think, or I'd count that one too)
I wrote a long post yesterday about the Concordia/Oxy game, but I deleted it because it didn't really go anywhere. Suffice to say, moving the game indoors could not have helped the Cobbers and their exotic running attack in a game they lost by two points on a late missed 2-point conversion. I'll never understand why the Concordia administration didn't do everything in their power to keep that game outdoors in the snow, ice, and cold.
What about St. John's? Collegeville is certainly a cold weather site, but if the weather isn't absolutely perfect (too hot, too cold, too wet, too many bugs, the threat of becoming too any-one-of-those-things, etc.) they famously move practice inside. Do they still reap the "cold weather" benefits?
One more thought related to weather. D3 football is known for its dearth of reliable kickers. Few teams would trust their fate to a field goal attempt in a playoff situation in anything but optimal conditions. Except maybe MUC. We see evidence of this in most Stagg Bowls. Teams come well prepared in every phase of the game except field goal kicking. And it has cost some teams the trophy IMHO. Most D3 stadiums are not ideal for kicking anyways. Too open, and subject to unpredictable wind patterns. This just makes a reliable kicker all the more valuable at this level. But they are hard to find in D3.
Yeah, I always thought Rodney Chenos should have played at a d-2 school .... or anywhere other than MUC :)
I've seen SJU at three Staggs and two of them have been decided by last second FGs -- one each way.
Repete: You should make the drive up to Towson and rub that 1976 title in their faces. :)
Ha! Neighbor's daughter goes there .... I might have mentioned it. :)
Quote from: Major Rev on October 15, 2007, 10:33:05 AM
How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!
You are welcome, but in the interest of full disclosure, I work til 2 a.m., so answering your question at 1:54 is more like a normal person playing out the string at 4:54 but not really wanting to leave his/her desk until 5, even if there's no more work to do that day :)
Still no comments related to weather's effects on defenses? My guess is that it is an "equalizer", typically slowing the whole game down, but also creating more problems for speed and stunting oriented defenses?
Quote from: reality check on October 15, 2007, 02:48:06 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 15, 2007, 12:34:15 AM
The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.
Keith
I actually broke down NCAA representation for all levels to present to some of the kids in my program with regards to playing beyond high school to show them that AZ has little to offer but there was plenty of opportunity to play college football AND get a great college education.
My numbers (which may be off but should give an idea) for D-III are: PA - 24, OH - 21, IL - 21, MA - 19, WI - 18, MN - 13, NY - 12, CA/IN/TX/VA - 9. There's your top eleven. Looks like a pretty cool climate grouping with a few exceptions. Until CA/TX and arguably VA you have almost 130 schools representing those first 7 states. I don't know if it helps much but there ya go.
Just looking at Stagg Bowls, and trying to discount the fact that MUC havily tilts the percentages in their run, the other competitors are decidedly "northern" schools as well with the exceptions of UMHB, Trinity, Bridgewater (I still say they're warm compared to the rest) and W Georgia, it's been pretty sparse.
Yeah, I did the numbers breakdown in an early ATN column, but I wasn't sure how much things had changed since then. Those numbers look about right though.
Bridgewater is not a warm place to play in October or early November. It's probably the coldest/windiest place I ever played. Given that playing experience and the experience of living in Va. for several years, as well as N.J. and Mass., I'd say there are climate differences between the three places, but not to the extent they would affect this discussion.
Virginia is not a "southern" climate in that it fails to get cold in the second half of the season. It does, and snow is not really common, but it's not an impossibility. The Stagg Bowl is generally windy and fairly cold, if not freezing.
If you look closely at a map, Virginia is actually pretty close to places with more "northern" reputations like New Jersey and Ohio. For climate purposes, I'd group it closer to the north. Culturally, however, beyond the D.C suburbs/Northern Virginia, they really believe it's the south.
We do have a "Google map" in development to help visualize the location of D3 schools. I think the part we're stuck on now is sorting football from basketball from baseball, but it's been a while since I've seen it, can't say I have a spot-on recollection.
I would have to say that the Climate in VA, even in the southern portion around Norfolk and VA Beach is comparable to southern Jersey. And maybe 5 degrees warmer than Northern Jersey. If it was snowing where I grew up in Jersey it would be just warm enough to be rain in Norfolk, Just wet cold and nasty in the winter.
Quote from: Major Rev on October 15, 2007, 10:33:05 AM
How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!
The original question comes out of the 1975 (that's right - 1975) Millsaps playoff experience. Having travelled with that team to play Colorado College in the quarters and Wittenburg in the semis, we saw two very different venues. At CC, in Colorado Springs, the high for the day was 37 F. We had practiced in 6 inches of snow the day before, but on game day it looked like the field had been vacuumed! The grounds crew had done an amazing job of creating a tremendous playing surface. Millsaps had All-American Ricky Haygood at QB who had broken 2000 yards in passing for the year (amazing back then) and WR Dees Hinton who had broken 1000. Colorado College was running an old-time wing-T offense which few players of the time had ever seen. And they had run it well that year. Millsaps wins 28-14 I think.
At Wittenburg it was a different story. Temperatures were in the high thirties again, but with melting snow on the field and snow/rain mix during the game. Wittenburg's ground game led by freshman David ? DOMINATED the Majors who never found "traction" on the field in about 4 inches of mud or in the game, going down 41-0 at halftime. There was some talk that Wittenburg had prepared for the muddy game with "mud cleats" and played "downhill" all afternoon. Wittenburg was merciful, though, and the game ended 55-21.
Back to the present -- does a South Region spread offense team like Millsaps or even a slightly more balanced team like Trinity or Mississippi College have as much chance in the playoffs as a crushing ground game/defensive team? I know that Mount Union is obviously off the charts in comparison to everyone else, but would an even EQUALLY talented spread offense team always be playing uphill in late November up north?
THUS is the field "tilted" toward the ground game?
Well,
I just noticed this post, +1 for the history lesson.
One factor in the how much the weather will affect games is the increasing number of teams who have "new-style" turf on campus, where most of the playoff games will be played. The Stagg Bowl has made the switch as well.
So in one sense, weather will always affect games (wet balls, the way hits feel in the cold and the way the ball hitting raw hands feels in the cold, wind and rain affecting the passing game, etc.).
In another sense, turf (although I'm sure it plays differently wet, I've got no personal experience as to how) has negated some of the effects of weather, in terms of muddy parts of the field, perhaps ice, the old "offense knows where it's going but defense is slower to react" theory, the change in game plans due to that, etc.
Perhaps it's an interesting discussion to have since I have provided no clear answers :D
I think we need the input of current or recently former players who have played on new style turf in various weather conditions.
Maj Rev I think that's Dave Merritt you're thinking of for Witt.
Quote from: Knightstalker on October 18, 2007, 03:32:03 PM
I think we need the input of current or recently former players who have played on new style turf in various weather conditions.
That would help.
Quote from: K-Mack on October 18, 2007, 11:43:29 PM
Quote from: Knightstalker on October 18, 2007, 03:32:03 PM
I think we need the input of current or recently former players who have played on new style turf in various weather conditions.
That would help.
I think a coach's perspective might be good, too, but I suppose the good ones are a bit too busy to be talking on message boards!
David MERRITT - yep, he was a hoss, as we say in the South.
Quote from: Major Rev on October 19, 2007, 03:12:21 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 18, 2007, 11:43:29 PM
Quote from: Knightstalker on October 18, 2007, 03:32:03 PM
I think we need the input of current or recently former players who have played on new style turf in various weather conditions.
That would help.
I think a coach's perspective might be good, too, but I suppose the good ones are a bit too busy to be talking on message boards!
David MERRITT - yep, he was a hoss, as we say in the South.
Hoss was definitely one of the first new terms I learned as a Jersey kid playing in Virginia.
There's actually a chain of eateries called Hoss's, I think. I saw one en route to Shenandoah. And yes, copy geeks, that's an s-s-apostrophe-s.
Having followed the MC-UMHB game on Saturday, sounds like this week's UMHB-Whitewater game should be one of the highlights of this season. But I don't think the game will be a test of this particular question. hscoach would seem to indicate that Whitewater and UMHB are running similar offenses, and the weather predicitions don't seem to indicate a real test for southern players.
I'll keep pushing this question as we get deeper into the season, and we get to see some of the emerging matchups.
Would be interested in what the weather looked like at this week's Capital game ...
Irrelevant in week one ...
Perhaps this topic becomes more relevant today ...
Will be interesting to see how the icy surface and weather conditions affect the North and West regional finals ...
Will the weather make a difference? Or will the better team simply take the game?
Turnovers make the weather irrelevant.
Theorem: The prevailing team is always the better team. Corollary: A truly superior team plays well under any weather and other conditions.
Exceptions: When playing in totally adverse conditions (i. e. the Monday Night Game in Pittsburgh) that negates many advantages for the superior team.
In a rivalry game - all bets are off.
A truly superior team wins under ANY and ALL conditions - with no excuses. Otherwise, the team is only superior when appropriate things go favorably for it. Consequently there are very few truly superior teams. Teams playing on artificial turf are not tested as to whether they can win on a muddy field, and thus it is not clear whether they are truly superior.
I guess my thinking is that Pittsburgh is clearly superior to Miami, but the weather totally neutralized everything.
I tend to agree with smed on this one, but I see where Frank is coming from.
Big theoretical question at hand: Can it be true that the superior team doesn't always win, or if it doesn't always win, does that mean it wasn't superior.
What about score triangles?
What about 2005, when Mount Union lost to Ohio Northern but won the national championship, while ONU lost to two or three other teams MUC beat and didn't make the playoffs?
Can't a team be superior on a certain day but not for the whole year? Can a not-that-good team play out of its mind from time to time?
Did I just open a whole new can of worms that has little to do with weather?
The champion is the champion, no matter how it got to be the champion. The use of that principle saves the winds of argument.