Just for fun, does anyone think a top ten team will fall during the opening week-end? If not, which team will be the first to lose? There is always a surprise, somewhere along the way. if I had to pick one, I might have to go with IWU. After dropping the last game of the season, in a very tough battle, to North Central, they did not look very sharp at all against Augie. Will they bounce back or will it be one and done?
Not in the Top 10, but Rochester was ranked No. 1 in January, and in the Top 10 through week 11.
Rochester finished the season 21-4, but could have ended the season with 6-7 or more losses if not for the second half efforts of their UAA Player of the Year. Rochester finished with a 3-4 record over the final seven games of the season.
Rochester has depth, don't get me wrong, but DiBartomoleo has been the storyline for many of the wins and losses and I do not see that changing in the tourney.
My prediction: they do not lose this weekend, but they are vulnerable.
Amherst will definitely survive the first weekend. I guarantee it.
Stevens Point.
Went 3-3 in last 6.
Nortwestern beat Wheaton and lead Whitewater at halftime in DePere, eventually losing by 10.
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 10:38:09 AM
Stevens Point.
Went 3-3 in last 6.
Nortwestern beat Wheaton and lead Whitewater at halftime in DePere, eventually losing by 10.
Reverse jinx attempt.
You may think so since I'm a Pointer fan, but its not. I really don't have high hopes for the Dawgs this year. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.
Catholic is in the Top Ten, right? I think Staten Island could beat them.
Redlands certainly could beat Whitworth. They led by 5 for a large portion of the second half before a big run by Whitworth. The Pirates are 59-6 at home over the last 5 years (thanks oxybob) so it would take a great game by the Bulldogs, but they have been playing good basketball. At least the SCIAC competition has made them look good...
All that being said, I don't see a see any of the top 10 having matchup problems or anything else that would make me think they are vulnerable. Maybe IWU? Based on their late season results and lack of offensive firepower. You really got to stretch to convince yourself any of them will lose, though
Quote from: Just Bill on February 28, 2013, 10:48:00 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 10:38:09 AM
Stevens Point.
Went 3-3 in last 6.
Nortwestern beat Wheaton and lead Whitewater at halftime in DePere, eventually losing by 10.
Reverse jinx attempt.
Stevens Point is not a top ten team as of the latest poll. Reverse jinx attempt denied.
Beating Wheaton at home in December is a little different than winning at Point in March.
Maybe they're just going all Lou Holtz on us, but supporters of #4 WPI are worrying about matchup problems against SUNY-Purchase.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 28, 2013, 01:22:04 PM
Maybe they're just going all Lou Holtz on us, but supporters of #4 WPI are worrying about matchup problems against SUNY-Purchase.
I think any of the high win teams that played easy schedules are all in for a suprise. I am not picking on any particular team or conference (well maybe the NESCAC ;D) but if you were a team that feasted on those over 1,000 rated Massey teams for those wins look out.
I don't have any of them losing first round in my bracket, but if I had to pick one game for an upset I'd go with Wesley over Williams.
Quote from: AO on February 28, 2013, 01:17:12 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 28, 2013, 10:48:00 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 10:38:09 AM
Stevens Point.
Went 3-3 in last 6.
Nortwestern beat Wheaton and lead Whitewater at halftime in DePere, eventually losing by 10.
Reverse jinx attempt.
Stevens Point is not a top ten team as of the latest poll. Reverse jinx attempt denied.
Beating Wheaton at home in December is a little different than winning at Point in March.
Beating Point at home for non conference foes is a very tall task. Point is 58-3 at home since 2000, with two NCAA tourney losses (Gus Adolphus '03 and Wash U '07) and a NC game vs Carroll in '09. They are also 92-8 at home under Coach Semling since he took over in '05
Quote from: (509)Rat on February 28, 2013, 12:54:54 PM
Maybe IWU? Based on their late season results and lack of offensive firepower.
Even with the bad performance against Augustana, I doubt anyone in the CCIW would say that IWU has a "lack of offensive firepower." CCIW stats...
http://www.cciw.org/custompages/CCIW_Links/MBasketball/Stats/1213/CONFONLY.HTM?path=mbball
- PPG, 78.1 (1st)
- Scoring margin, +16.6 (1st)
- FG%, .494 (1st)
- 3-point%, .389 (1st)
- Assists per game, 16.3 (1st)
The Titans were the best offensive team in a very good league this year. I don't think you can overreact to one bad game.
WPI (#4) has a tough size matchup with Purchase.
I think MIT could upset St. Marys (#11).
They're not quite top ten, but #12 Calvin is probably the underdog playing at #19 Rose-Hulman.
Quote from: Titan Q on February 28, 2013, 06:52:38 PM
Quote from: (509)Rat on February 28, 2013, 12:54:54 PM
Maybe IWU? Based on their late season results and lack of offensive firepower.
Even with the bad performance against Augustana, I doubt anyone in the CCIW would say that IWU has a "lack of offensive firepower." CCIW stats...
http://www.cciw.org/custompages/CCIW_Links/MBasketball/Stats/1213/CONFONLY.HTM?path=mbball
- PPG, 78.1 (1st)
- Scoring margin, +16.6 (1st)
- FG%, .494 (1st)
- 3-point%, .389 (1st)
- Assists per game, 16.3 (1st)
The Titans were the best offensive team in a very good league this year. I don't think you can overreact to one bad game.
I stand semi-corrected. Their stats don't stand out as much when you look at the entire season (out of conference and the conference tourney). But like I said, we are all grasping at straws when it comes to justifying why one of these top teams might lose. Instead of offensive firepower I should have said dedicated scorer. Much like this year's Whitworth team, there is nobody averaging 15+ ppg (IWU doesnt even have a player averaging 12). That could very well be a positive. Or it could hurt in a tourney game where you don't have that one guy who WILL take over a game.
I didn't say it would happen. Its possible Point could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Even you, frodo, has to admit they haven't looked impressive in the last 10 games, going 3-3 in the last 6?
Quote from: frodotwo on February 28, 2013, 06:35:11 PM
Quote from: AO on February 28, 2013, 01:17:12 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 28, 2013, 10:48:00 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 10:38:09 AM
Stevens Point.
Went 3-3 in last 6.
Nortwestern beat Wheaton and lead Whitewater at halftime in DePere, eventually losing by 10.
Reverse jinx attempt.
Stevens Point is not a top ten team as of the latest poll. Reverse jinx attempt denied.
Beating Wheaton at home in December is a little different than winning at Point in March.
Beating Point at home for non conference foes is a very tall task. Point is 58-3 at home since 2000, with two NCAA tourney losses (Gus Adolphus '03 and Wash U '07) and a NC game vs Carroll in '09. They are also 92-8 at home under Coach Semling since he took over in '05
And GAC went on to lose in the title game (leading by 8 with 3 minutes to go)... and Wash U took 3rd, losing by 2 to Amherst, the eventual National Champion. Wash U would also win the next two National Champions. Those were two really good teams!
Quote from: (509)Rat on February 28, 2013, 07:21:07 PM
Much like this year's Whitworth team, there is nobody averaging 15+ ppg (IWU doesnt even have a player averaging 12).
If you are looking for Michael Taylor on the stat sheet, he is not there. But the Titans have guys that can take over games. Offense is usually not a problem.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 28, 2013, 07:16:46 PM
They're not quite top ten, but #12 Calvin is probably the underdog playing at #19 Rose-Hulman.
Ah, ha. Wait, what?
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 08:52:28 PM
I didn't say it would happen. Its possible Point could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Even you, frodo, has to admit they haven't looked impressive in the last 10 games, going 3-3 in the last 6?
But... Platteville provided terrible match-ups for UWSP. UWP's strengths were in directly aligned with Point's weaknesses.
Northwestern has won just 1 game where they scored less than 70, the win against Wheaton. In their 9 losses, 8 times they were held under 70, and the 9th time, they got run out of the gym by Buena Vista 94-73.
On the other hand, Point has held all but 3 opponents under 70 and 14 teams under 60 (including 3 under 50 and 1 under 40).
It's definitely going to be a contrast in styles.
Point averages just under 124 possessions per game (total, offensive and defensive) and Northwestern averages just over 141 per game.
Quote from: northb on February 28, 2013, 10:45:51 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 28, 2013, 07:16:46 PM
They're not quite top ten, but #12 Calvin is probably the underdog playing at #19 Rose-Hulman.
Ah, ha. Wait, what?
It's a judgement call, but I would say (usually) that #12 AT #19, #19 would be favored.
Quote from: northb on February 28, 2013, 10:45:51 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 28, 2013, 07:16:46 PM
They're not quite top ten, but #12 Calvin is probably the underdog playing at #19 Rose-Hulman.
Ah, ha. Wait, what?
I'll be rooting for Rose and the HCAC, but I think I'd give an ever so slight edge to Calvin. Neither really played a difficult schedule (Rose split with Transy, Calvin lost to Wheaton) but for the most part both handled the business in front of them.
Does anyone know what the record is for least total points in a tournament game? It might be a first to 45 points will win kind of game. #1 defense (Rose) vs #6 defense (Calvin)
I mentioned earlier my choice of Williams as the most likely from the top 10 (even though I still think they'll win), but going down through the top 18 (since none of them play each other) I see #12 Calvin vs #19 RHIT as well as #13 RIC vs Hobart being the best opportunities for a high ranked team to lose and even those I think I'd give a slight edge to the higher ranked team.
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 08:52:28 PM
I didn't say it would happen. Its possible Point could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Even you, frodo, has to admit they haven't looked impressive in the last 10 games, going 3-3 in the last 6?
Injuries, injuries, injuries. I think that has taken a toll on them more than anything else. They have only 10 players in uniform, with only 8 seeing the floor. I think they have tired legs and that showed in those last 3 losses.
Quote from: frodotwo on March 01, 2013, 11:25:02 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2013, 08:52:28 PM
I didn't say it would happen. Its possible Point could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Even you, frodo, has to admit they haven't looked impressive in the last 10 games, going 3-3 in the last 6?
Injuries, injuries, injuries. I think that has taken a toll on them more than anything else. They have only 10 players in uniform, with only 8 seeing the floor. I think they have tired legs and that showed in those last 3 losses.
But... the loss last Thursday could be a blessing in disguise. That means one fewer game that they had to grind out on Saturday, plus two more days of rest to get ready for tomorrow night.
For a team as road-weary as UWSP, this expanded schedule could REALLY play well into their hands.
If Point should knock off Northwestern, then they have a full week to get ready for either Calvin or Rose Hulman. That should allow plenty of time for guys who have been dinged up like Austin Ryf and Joe Ritchay to get healthy again.
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
deserve it the most?
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 01:18:51 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
deserve it the most?
Based on the selection criteria. Basically the same way they decided who hosted the first round. Mike DeWitt used that term on Hoopsville, so I just quoted him. Deserve as in who put up the best resume given the selection criteria.
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 01:27:38 PM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 01:18:51 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
deserve it the most?
Based on the selection criteria. Basically the same way they decided who hosted the first round. Mike DeWitt used that term on Hoopsville, so I just quoted him. Deserve as in who put up the best resume given the selection criteria.
It seems like they should already know this. If I'm an OWU fan and my Battling Bishops are staring down a round 2 game against Hampden Sydney in a gymnasium TBD, I don't think I'm cool with my head coach spending Sunday making travel plans for 15 other teams.
Quote from: wally_wabash on March 01, 2013, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 01:27:38 PM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 01:18:51 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
deserve it the most?
Based on the selection criteria. Basically the same way they decided who hosted the first round. Mike DeWitt used that term on Hoopsville, so I just quoted him. Deserve as in who put up the best resume given the selection criteria.
It seems like they should already know this. If I'm an OWU fan and my Battling Bishops are staring down a round 2 game against Hampden Sydney in a gymnasium TBD, I don't think I'm cool with my head coach spending Sunday making travel plans for 15 other teams.
They don't book the tickets. I don't think it's that tough to choose in most cases. I'm guessing that call takes 30 minutes at most. Probably the toughest choices will be if two visiting teams win and have to play each other.
Quote from: wally_wabash on March 01, 2013, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 01:27:38 PM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 01:18:51 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: Charles on March 01, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
Does any one know how the home team is chosen for the second and subsequent rounds?
The committee will have a conference call Sunday to decide hosts based on which advancing teams deserve it the most. They'll use the same criteria they used to bracket and decide hosts for the first round.
They won't be moving match-ups, just choosing between the two teams for hosting duties.
deserve it the most?
Based on the selection criteria. Basically the same way they decided who hosted the first round. Mike DeWitt used that term on Hoopsville, so I just quoted him. Deserve as in who put up the best resume given the selection criteria.
It seems like they should already know this. If I'm an OWU fan and my Battling Bishops are staring down a round 2 game against Hampden Sydney in a gymnasium TBD, I don't think I'm cool with my head coach spending Sunday making travel plans for 15 other teams.
But you're right - they could just rank everybody 1-4 in terms of hosting rights (or 1-3 or 1-2 if some teams didn't file to host) and let the lowest number host. They'd still have to make that announcement though - as they would never release such rankings. They'd also have to meet to figure out the hosting order for the following weekend once the four possible teams have been decided.
They've always met to decide on sectional hosting after the first weekend in the past - this isn't any different, there's just a few more games.
It would be interesting to see if two teams who didn't file end up paired up. What would they do?
Anyone have a list of teams who filed to host to see if this is a possibility?
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 04:35:42 PM
It would be interesting to see if two teams who didn't file end up paired up. What would they do?
Anyone have a list of teams who filed to host to see if this is a possibility?
Yeah that's a very good question. I know Coach DeWitt said only 37 teams put in to host. Meaning almost all of the non hosts in the first round didn't file at all. What if there's two upsets in the same spot in the bracket? Dave or Pat.. you guys know?
Quote from: SevenTen on March 01, 2013, 06:48:46 PM
Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2013, 04:35:42 PM
It would be interesting to see if two teams who didn't file end up paired up. What would they do?
Anyone have a list of teams who filed to host to see if this is a possibility?
Yeah that's a very good question. I know Coach DeWitt said only 37 teams put in to host. Meaning almost all of the non hosts in the first round didn't file at all. What if there's two upsets in the same spot in the bracket? Dave or Pat.. you guys know?
I bet the NCAA has already let the refs know who should win so they can avoid that situation :D
GrizzliesGrad,
I will be very interested in Pat's or Dave's response to your suggestion that the NCAA would discuss the matter with the refs.
I would suggest that any non-bidding first round winners would reconsider bidding on the next round.
That seems to be a very off the wall suggestion that the NCAA would suggest anything to the refs.
Quote from: dahlby on March 01, 2013, 09:48:47 PM
GrizzliesGrad,
I will be very interested in Pat's or Dave's response to your suggestion that the NCAA would discuss the matter with the refs.
I would suggest that any non-bidding first round winners would reconsider bidding on the next round.
That seems to be a very off the wall suggestion that the NCAA would suggest anything to the refs.
You can't put in late bids, but a couple may not have been able to host week 1 b/c of another event on campus, but did put in to host week 2.
I'm pretty sure GrizzliesGrad's post was a joke, but it would be interesting to see what the NCAA would do if not enough teams put in to host, do they create a 4 team "pod" with one game being a neutral site or do they find a random gym to host a neutral site game?
I feel safe in saying that FCGriz's use of :D indicated he was joking.
Of course, if EVERY home team wins this weekend (schools known to have submitted bids), we may have to reconsider whether he was joking! :D
(Please note the :D)
It is safe to say that if a team didn't put in to host (and the deadline was weeks ago), they aren't hosting at any point in the tournament. I am not positive if teams can say "we can't host the first week, but would love to host after that" and get rewarded by hosting - but with this drawn out schedule it is certainly possible. I know from previous experience that schools that know there are chances of hosting in the tournament will leave all of the weekends (for a normal tournament) open so there are no conflicts.
We also know from the pod system that teams that didn't host the first weekend could end up hosting the second due to travel restrictions and such for any of of the other three teams in their pod. However, with the system drawn out and individual hosting... it certainly becomes more interesting.
Now to be clear, they do not determine who is hosting until after that weekends games are finish - they do not predict. There is another hook to all of this... if a team who hosted this weekend did not live up to the expectations of a host... they will not get a game next weekend or beyond. It isn't that common, but it has happened.
Oh... and upsets can change a lot of dynamics.
They can elect to host in future weeks but not the first week. For example, six schools hosted wrestling regionals this week. (WPI has a new rec center and managed to host both.) There could be many other conflicts and I bet some events were scheduled for gyms before the NCAA announced the format change.
But you can't file late, as some have noted already. There's one deadline and it was weeks ago, but in that paperwork you can denote which weeks you are filing for.
Some might not choose to host during spring break either, for example, because of lack of personnel (no student workers, game managers might be on the road with their baseball or softball teams, institution policy, etc.).