Here's how I see the first West Regional ranking looking:
Team Record SOS Results against Regional Ranked
1. Whitewater 7-0 11 (Wins over Oshkosh and Platteville)
2. Bethel 8-0 10 (Win over C-M)
3. Linfield 7-0 53 (Win over Pac Lutheran)
4. Pac Lutheran 7-1 45 (Loss to Linfield. Win over Pacific)
5. Conc Morehead 7-1 59 (Loss to Bethel)
6. Pacific 6-1 62 (Loss to Pac Lutheran)
7. Illinois College 8-0 185
8. Oshkosh 7-1 143 (Loss to Whitewater)
9. Greenville 9-0 225
10. Platteville 7-1 192 (Loss to Whitewater)
Anyone else want to take a shot?
Sure, a shot at you ;D
You need glasses.
Quote from: TitanPride on November 03, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Here's how I see the first West Regional ranking looking:
Team Record SOS Results against Regional Ranked
1. Whitewater 7-0 11 (Wins over Oshkosh and Platteville)
2. Bethel 8-0 10 (Win over C-M)
3. Linfield 7-0 53 (Win over Pac Lutheran)
4. Pac Lutheran 7-1 45 (Loss to Linfield. Win over Pacific)
5. Conc Morehead 7-1 59 (Loss to Bethel)
6. Pacific 6-1 62 (Loss to Pac Lutheran)
7. Illinois College 8-0 185
8. Oshkosh 7-1 143 (Loss to Whitewater)
9. Greenville 9-0 225
10. Platteville 7-1 192 (Loss to Whitewater)
Anyone else want to take a shot?
Greenville isn't in the West.
TitanPride,
Your top 6 look real solid to my untrained eye, but couldn't you squeeze Redlands in at #10..............please? 8-)
Quote from: Hemingway13 on November 03, 2013, 08:26:00 PM
TitanPride,
Your top 6 look real solid to my untrained eye, but couldn't you squeeze Redlands in at #10..............please? 8-)
Yes, that would be great for my Lutes!
Quote from: AO on November 03, 2013, 05:20:11 PM
Quote from: TitanPride on November 03, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Here's how I see the first West Regional ranking looking:
Team Record SOS Results against Regional Ranked
1. Whitewater 7-0 11 (Wins over Oshkosh and Platteville)
2. Bethel 8-0 10 (Win over C-M)
3. Linfield 7-0 53 (Win over Pac Lutheran)
4. Pac Lutheran 7-1 45 (Loss to Linfield. Win over Pacific)
5. Conc Morehead 7-1 59 (Loss to Bethel)
6. Pacific 6-1 62 (Loss to Pac Lutheran)
7. Illinois College 8-0 185
8. Oshkosh 7-1 143 (Loss to Whitewater)
9. Greenville 9-0 225
10. Platteville 7-1 192 (Loss to Whitewater)
Anyone else want to take a shot?
Greenville isn't in the West.
Uh Oh--better tell Pat---the D3football listing has Greenville, and *almost* the entire UMAC in the West! ::)
Maybe they really are in the west.....
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2013, 08:55:25 PM
Quote from: AO on November 03, 2013, 05:20:11 PM
Quote from: TitanPride on November 03, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Here's how I see the first West Regional ranking looking:
Team Record SOS Results against Regional Ranked
1. Whitewater 7-0 11 (Wins over Oshkosh and Platteville)
2. Bethel 8-0 10 (Win over C-M)
3. Linfield 7-0 53 (Win over Pac Lutheran)
4. Pac Lutheran 7-1 45 (Loss to Linfield. Win over Pacific)
5. Conc Morehead 7-1 59 (Loss to Bethel)
6. Pacific 6-1 62 (Loss to Pac Lutheran)
7. Illinois College 8-0 185
8. Oshkosh 7-1 143 (Loss to Whitewater)
9. Greenville 9-0 225
10. Platteville 7-1 192 (Loss to Whitewater)
Anyone else want to take a shot?
Greenville isn't in the West.
Uh Oh--better tell Pat---the D3football listing has Greenville, and the entire UMAC in the West! ::) Maybe they really are in the west.....
St Scholastica was listed in the west last year.
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 03, 2013, 09:04:26 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2013, 08:55:25 PM
Quote from: AO on November 03, 2013, 05:20:11 PM
Quote from: TitanPride on November 03, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Here's how I see the first West Regional ranking looking:
Team Record SOS Results against Regional Ranked
1. Whitewater 7-0 11 (Wins over Oshkosh and Platteville)
2. Bethel 8-0 10 (Win over C-M)
3. Linfield 7-0 53 (Win over Pac Lutheran)
4. Pac Lutheran 7-1 45 (Loss to Linfield. Win over Pacific)
5. Conc Morehead 7-1 59 (Loss to Bethel)
6. Pacific 6-1 62 (Loss to Pac Lutheran)
7. Illinois College 8-0 185
8. Oshkosh 7-1 143 (Loss to Whitewater)
9. Greenville 9-0 225
10. Platteville 7-1 192 (Loss to Whitewater)
Anyone else want to take a shot?
Greenville isn't in the West.
Uh Oh--better tell Pat---the D3football listing has Greenville, and the entire UMAC in the West! ::) Maybe they really are in the west.....
St Scholastica was listed in the west last year.
Greenville is listed in the North with a few other UMAC teams while the rest are in the West on the main site so idk what's going on there.
I tried not to mess that up. As some have said, according to the regional page, Greenville is a member of the west. (http://d3football.com/teams/west)
TitanPride, I have no problem with your SOS formula.
I'm a homer and any formula that keeps LINFIELD off the #1 West ranking wrankles me.
I should know that it's the last poll that counts and that I should not still be upset we're so far West we cannot appear to be but an SOS.
It was a brutal weekend for Bethel I terms of the Regional Rankings. At least as brutal as a weekend can be were you stay unbeaten and win by 49 points on the road.
Wartburg and SJU losing cost them probably 1, if not 2 wins against RRO.
The big question is how much the committee weighs SOS v. win percentage. That will determine a lot about where IC gets slotted compared to other teams with one or even two losses against much better competition.
Quote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 09:27:11 AM
It was a brutal weekend for Bethel I terms of the Regional Rankings. At least as brutal as a weekend can be were you stay unbeaten and win by 49 points on the road.
Wartburg and SJU losing cost them probably 1, if not 2 wins against RRO.
The big question is how much the committee weighs SOS v. win percentage. That will determine a lot about where IC gets slotted compared to other teams with one or even two losses against much better competition.
HazzBen
I feel for you, sincerely. In 2010, the SOS is what caused UWW to leapfrog around the country even after going undefeated and being the returning national champion.
WHD
With so little "cross pollination" amongst DIII teams I have no idea how anyone can be that objective when calculating SOS.
Quote from: Bluenote on November 04, 2013, 08:00:40 PM
With so little "cross pollination" amongst DIII teams I have no idea how anyone can be that objective when calculating SOS.
It's pretty easy given that it's based on winning percentages--there's not interpretation needed.......and SOS is one of the 5 criteria used in doing the regional rankings......
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 08:05:29 PM
Quote from: Bluenote on November 04, 2013, 08:00:40 PM
With so little "cross pollination" amongst DIII teams I have no idea how anyone can be that objective when calculating SOS.
It's pretty easy given that it's based on winning percentages--there's not interpretation needed.......and SOS is one of the 5 criteria used in doing the regional rankings......
But given that some teams with great records have never played great teams what does that prove?
Quote from: Bluenote on November 04, 2013, 10:13:11 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 08:05:29 PM
Quote from: Bluenote on November 04, 2013, 08:00:40 PM
With so little "cross pollination" amongst DIII teams I have no idea how anyone can be that objective when calculating SOS.
It's pretty easy given that it's based on winning percentages--there's not interpretation needed.......and SOS is one of the 5 criteria used in doing the regional rankings......
But given that some teams with great records have never played great teams what does that prove?
i agree somewhat but the use of the opponents opponents winging percentage does account for this to a degree...basically if you beat teams with good records that also beat teams with good records then your SOS will be higher than if you beat a team with a good record that beat a bunch if losing teams....and agai Blue SOS is one of five criteria used. The others are win/loss regional games, results vs regionally ranked opponents, head to head ,and one other thing that I'm blanking on
Not spelling, is it?
OK...now I get it! LOL!!! ;D
Quote from: D O.C. on November 05, 2013, 12:13:16 AM
Not spelling, is it?
LOL, was typing from my cell phone (too lazy to get off the couch).
Quote from: Hemingway13 on November 03, 2013, 08:26:00 PM
TitanPride,
Your top 6 look real solid to my untrained eye, but couldn't you squeeze Redlands in at #10..............please? 8-)
As of right now, I would have Redlands over UW-Platteville. Neither team has beaten anybody good, but Redlands' SOS is the best in the West.
So, with that being said about UWP, I would have Bethel over UW-Whitewater for the top spot in the West.
You know we're deeper and they're gonna send someone to the 'north'...so I think the West Regional Rankings should go to eleven.
(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpaizo.com%2Fimage%2Fproduct%2Fcatalog%2FTSB%2FTSBTHIS-ONE-GOES-TO-11_500.jpeg&hash=cc9e99fed895676d73ef1a1d4f96356422fb52d2)
Quote from: d-train on November 05, 2013, 12:26:36 PM
You know we're deeper and they're gonna send someone to the 'north'...so I think the West Regional Rankings should go to eleven.
(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpaizo.com%2Fimage%2Fproduct%2Fcatalog%2FTSB%2FTSBTHIS-ONE-GOES-TO-11_500.jpeg&hash=cc9e99fed895676d73ef1a1d4f96356422fb52d2)
Love the "Spinal Tap" reference!
I assume today's the day for the first Regional Rankings?!
Quote from: WarhawkDad on November 04, 2013, 06:08:52 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 09:27:11 AM
It was a brutal weekend for Bethel I terms of the Regional Rankings. At least as brutal as a weekend can be were you stay unbeaten and win by 49 points on the road.
Wartburg and SJU losing cost them probably 1, if not 2 wins against RRO.
The big question is how much the committee weighs SOS v. win percentage. That will determine a lot about where IC gets slotted compared to other teams with one or even two losses against much better competition.
HazzBen
I feel for you, sincerely. In 2010, the SOS is what caused UWW to leapfrog around the country even after going undefeated and being the returning national champion.
WHD
I believe that this problem has been addressed now that prior years' postseason results can be taken into consideration when comparing undefeated teams. If I remember correctly that was not on the books in 2010.
WEST
1 UW-Whitewater 8-0 8-0
2 Bethel 8-0 8-0
3 Linfield 7-0 7-0
4 UW-Oshkosh 7-1 7-1
5 Concordia-Moorhead 7-1 7-1
6 UW-Platteville 7-1 7-1
7 Pacific Lutheran 7-1 7-1
8 Illinois College 8-0 8-0
9 Wartburg 6-2 6-2
10 Saint John's (Minn.) 6-2 6-2
Surprised UWW is on top. Maybe Bethel will jump over Whitewater if and when they beat St. John's. Also, will that count as a regional win for Bethen then? Or won't it, because St. John's will then drop out of the Regional Rankings?
Strong showing by the WIAC, stronger than I imagined. I wonder is UWO or UWP will fall off the rankings once they play each other and someone gets that second loss?
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Surprised UWW is on top. Maybe Bethel will jump over Whitewater if and when they beat St. John's.
Also, will that count as a regional win for Bethen then? Or won't it, because St. John's will then drop out of the Regional Rankings?
WashU was ranked 8th in the South which helps out UWW a lot.
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 06, 2013, 01:45:44 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Surprised UWW is on top. Maybe Bethel will jump over Whitewater if and when they beat St. John's.
Also, will that count as a regional win for Bethen then? Or won't it, because St. John's will then drop out of the Regional Rankings?
WashU was ranked 8th in the South which helps out UWW a lot.
+K good call. I didn't think to look in the south for Wash U.
Here's to UWP, UWO and Wash U staying regionally ranked these next few weeks. If that holds true, UWW could very well host a region then.
once ranked, always ranked. Bethel is in the drivers seat with 4 potential regionally ranked wins if the Tommies beat the Cobbers.
WTH? Let's just set up home and home with Whitewater and UHMB from 2016 to 2026 & get out of this far West hole.
no respect for the island pacific numbers yet?
Pacific # 61, 5417,#77, 5251, .557
WART, #94, 4815,#129, 5808, .515
SJU, #142, 4444,#166. 5561, .482
LUCY CAN YOU HELP me? ???
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:02:07 PM
no respect for the island pacific numbers yet?
Pacific # 61, 5417,#77, 5251, .557
WART, #94, 4815,#129, 5808, .515
SJU, #142, 4444,#166. 5561, .482
LUCY CAN YOU HELP me? ???
I'm trying to figure out how St. John's is listed over Redlands. The SOS isn't even close, neither has a regional win, both have two losses.
Is it because St. John's have 6 wins, while Redlands has 5?
pacific has 6 wins too and only one lose to a ranked team.. plu...?
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 02:05:31 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:02:07 PM
no respect for the island pacific numbers yet?
Pacific # 61, 5417,#77, 5251, .557
WART, #94, 4815,#129, 5808, .515
SJU, #142, 4444,#166. 5561, .482
LUCY CAN YOU HELP me? ???
I'm trying to figure out how St. John's is listed over Redlands. The SOS isn't even close, neither has a regional win, both have two losses.
Is it because St. John's have 6 wins, while Redlands has 5?
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:08:12 PM
pacific has 6 wins too and only one lose to a ranked team.. plu...? Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 02:05:31 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:02:07 PM
no respect for the island pacific numbers yet?
Pacific # 61, 5417,#77, 5251, .557
WART, #94, 4815,#129, 5808, .515
SJU, #142, 4444,#166. 5561, .482
LUCY CAN YOU HELP me? ???
I'm trying to figure out how St. John's is listed over Redlands. The SOS isn't even close, neither has a regional win, both have two losses.
Is it because St. John's have 6 wins, while Redlands has 5?
Bethel caught a huge break with St. John's sneaking in there.
yes they did ::),, could be large down the road :o
Pretty big wiff on Pacific (IMO). They should be #9. Maybe if they beat Willamette this week?
Quote from: D O.C. on November 06, 2013, 01:51:36 PM
WTH? Let's just set up home and home with Whitewater and UHMB from 2016 to 2026 & get out of this far West hole.
I know you've admitted your homerism and that you will be rankled by any rankings that don't have Linfield #1. But stepping back for a second, has Linfield accomplished anything on the field this year that Bethel and UW-W have not? Between video and other technology, people are pretty aware of Linfield. As the committe lives their daily lives, observing the D3 landscape, I'm sure Linfield doesn't seem any farther away than UW-W or Bethel.
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Nobody should worry about Pacific because they can play their way in and they will not be in if they lose regardless.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
Quote from: D O.C. on November 06, 2013, 01:51:36 PM
WTH? Let's just set up home and home with Whitewater and UHMB from 2016 to 2026 & get out of this far West hole.
I know you've admitted your homerism and that you will be rankled by any rankings that don't have Linfield #1. But stepping back for a second, has Linfield accomplished anything on the field this year that Bethel and UW-W have not? Between video and other technology, people are pretty aware of Linfield. As the committe lives their daily lives, observing the D3 landscape, I'm sure Linfield doesn't seem any farther away than UW-W or Bethel.
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Hardin-Simmons, Cal Lutheran and CWR screwed them over for being so bad. Those three non-conference games killed Linfield's SOS.
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:13:21 PM
yes they did ::),, could be large down the road :o
Yeah, Linfield just has to take care of their own business and hope that Bethel stubs their toe against the Johnnies (doubtful) and UWW and Mount finishes strong. If that plays out then I'd see Mount to the East, UWW to the North, and then Linfield getting the West. However, I'm preparing myself for a 3 or 2 seed out west and that's a damn shame considering how good this Linfield team is.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 06, 2013, 02:22:07 PM
Nobody should worry about Pacific because they can play their way in and they will not be in if they lose regardless.
Not worried about Pacific per se. But the 'results vs. regional ranked' (for Bethel, Linfield, PLU) could have been quite different with Pacific at #9 and Redlands at #10 this week. Oh well...
that was my point too>>> ;D
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 02:30:40 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 06, 2013, 02:22:07 PM
Nobody should worry about Pacific because they can play their way in and they will not be in if they lose regardless.
Not worried about Pacific per se. But the 'results vs. regional ranked' (for Bethel, Linfield, PLU) could have been quite different with Pacific at #9 and Redlands at #10 this week. Oh well...
[/b]
yes I agree :-*
I feel sorry for PS this week.. ;D
I think you missed the point Pat,, RR would help both PLU and CAts. 8-)
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 02:30:40 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 06, 2013, 02:22:07 PM
Nobody should worry about Pacific because they can play their way in and they will not be in if they lose regardless.
Not worried about Pacific per se. But the 'results vs. regional ranked' (for Bethel, Linfield, PLU) could have been quite different with Pacific at #9 and Redlands at #10 this week. Oh well...
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 02:42:37 PM
I think you missed the point Pat,, RR would help both PLU and CAts. 8-)Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 02:30:40 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 06, 2013, 02:22:07 PM
Nobody should worry about Pacific because they can play their way in and they will not be in if they lose regardless.
Not worried about Pacific per se. But the 'results vs. regional ranked' (for Bethel, Linfield, PLU) could have been quite different with Pacific at #9 and Redlands at #10 this week. Oh well...
Ahh. I should have known that was all you cared about. :)
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
]
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Yes--pretty much. But as a somewhat objective Linfield fan I think the criteria were applied appropriately for at least the first 3 teams on the West Regional Rankings....still scratching my head about Warburg being on the list ahead of Pacific.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 06, 2013, 03:46:08 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
]
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Yes--pretty much. But as a somewhat objective Linfield fan I think the criteria were applied appropriately for at least the first 3 teams on the West Regional Rankings....still scratching my head about Warburg being on the list ahead of Pacific.
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 06, 2013, 03:46:08 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
]
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Yes--pretty much. But as a somewhat objective Linfield fan I think the criteria were applied appropriately for at least the first 3 teams on the West Regional Rankings....still scratching my head about Warburg being on the list ahead of Pacific.
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
[/b]
And pat thinks we ONLY care about the iSLAND TEAMS? :o
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Strong showing by the WIAC, stronger than I imagined. I wonder is UWO or UWP will fall off the rankings once they play each other and someone gets that second loss?
If UWP beats UWO, I think they both stay ranked. If UWP loses, their SOS being what it is probably means they fall out. That'd be my guess anyway. And that's how I'm expecting the game to turn out as well.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:32:46 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Strong showing by the WIAC, stronger than I imagined. I wonder is UWO or UWP will fall off the rankings once they play each other and someone gets that second loss?
If UWP beats UWO, I think they both stay ranked. If UWP loses, their SOS being what it is probably means they fall out. That'd be my guess anyway. And that's how I'm expecting the game to turn out as well.
Once ranked, always ranked though too.
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 06, 2013, 04:43:26 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:32:46 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Strong showing by the WIAC, stronger than I imagined. I wonder is UWO or UWP will fall off the rankings once they play each other and someone gets that second loss?
If UWP beats UWO, I think they both stay ranked. If UWP loses, their SOS being what it is probably means they fall out. That'd be my guess anyway. And that's how I'm expecting the game to turn out as well.
Once ranked, always ranked though too.
Absolutely! I was just speaking to which, if either, might be in peril of falling out of the rankings. While they would both 'stay ranked' one falling out will make room for another team to enter in.
Quote from: wildcat11 on November 06, 2013, 04:45:25 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
I've seen enough
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 05:32:29 PM
Quote from: wildcat11 on November 06, 2013, 04:45:25 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
I've seen enough
Well, SOMEONE has to be on the committee. You'll note that Linfield's AD is on the committee and it would have done him some good if Pacific was in that #10 spot, or if they are next week when they play Linfield. There are two WIAC reps, which could account for all three UW's making it in. You can scream conspiracy almost no matter who ends up on the committee unless it's composed of five guys from teams that are NEVER in the rankings or playoff chase.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 05:45:48 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 05:32:29 PM
Quote from: wildcat11 on November 06, 2013, 04:45:25 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
I've seen enough
Well, SOMEONE has to be on the committee. You'll note that Linfield's AD is on the committee and it would have done him some good if Pacific was in that #10 spot, or if they are next week when they play Linfield. There are two WIAC reps, which could account for all three UW's making it in. You can scream conspiracy almost no matter who ends up on the committee unless it's composed of five guys from teams that are NEVER in the rankings or playoff chase.
02 is as far away from being serious about that statement as anyone could possibly be.
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 06, 2013, 05:51:44 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 05:45:48 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 05:32:29 PM
Quote from: wildcat11 on November 06, 2013, 04:45:25 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
I've seen enough
Well, SOMEONE has to be on the committee. You'll note that Linfield's AD is on the committee and it would have done him some good if Pacific was in that #10 spot, or if they are next week when they play Linfield. There are two WIAC reps, which could account for all three UW's making it in. You can scream conspiracy almost no matter who ends up on the committee unless it's composed of five guys from teams that are NEVER in the rankings or playoff chase.
02 is as far away from being serious about that statement as anyone could possibly be.
Broken sarcasm meter. Long day at the office today. My bad :)
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 06, 2013, 04:27:41 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 06, 2013, 03:46:08 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
]
It sort of feels like you think Linfield deserves the #1 seed because you like them and can't imagine anyone better.
Yes--pretty much. But as a somewhat objective Linfield fan I think the criteria were applied appropriately for at least the first 3 teams on the West Regional Rankings....still scratching my head about Warburg being on the list ahead of Pacific.
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
[/b]
And pat thinks we ONLY care about the iSLAND TEAMS? :o
Considering it was a Whitewater fan who asked the question, yes.
I'm okay with Linfield at #3 - It seems that this is an unusually strong season in 3 of the top conferences in the nation - WIAC, MIAC, and NWC. The 3 UW teams have been in the Top 10 and only lost to each other... Bethel, St. Johns, and Concordia Morehead and St Thomas have all been ranked.. some very highly. The NWC has had Linfield, PLU, and Willamette ranked and a pretty solid team in Pacific.
My hope would be that the WIAC conference would be placed with Mt Union in the North in the hopes of Mount Union not having 3 bye weeks in the playoffs.
The NWC deserves to go to the MIAC if there is a head to head game as I believe they have beaten us in consecutive seasons.
Wildcat11,
Many thanks for posting the rankings committee members list.
This latest D3 conundrum constitutes a classic case of "curiouser and curiouser". ;)
Quote from: Walla Walla Wildcat on November 06, 2013, 06:11:24 PM
I'm okay with Linfield at #3 -
I'm not. I understand why they're not this week but I'm not ok with it.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 06:00:13 PM
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 06, 2013, 05:51:44 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 05:45:48 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 05:32:29 PM
Quote from: wildcat11 on November 06, 2013, 04:45:25 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 06, 2013, 04:33:29 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 06, 2013, 03:50:02 PM
Is Bethel's AD on the RR committee or something? They scored huge by getting Wartburg AND St. John's in the Regional Ranks. that's a little shady to me ;)
Not sure, but that's a great question in general. Who are the members of the West Region Committee this year?
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf (http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/championship-handbook.pdf)
Section 1.3
Duey Naatz, Stout (co-chair, National Committee)
Terry Horan, Concordia-Moorhead (co-chair, National committee)
Chris Brann, Beloit
Scott Carnahan, Linfield
Mike Emendorfer, Platteville
Ben McEnroe, CLU
Dan Runkle, Debuque
Steve Johnson, Bethel
John Welty, Westminster
I've seen enough
Well, SOMEONE has to be on the committee. You'll note that Linfield's AD is on the committee and it would have done him some good if Pacific was in that #10 spot, or if they are next week when they play Linfield. There are two WIAC reps, which could account for all three UW's making it in. You can scream conspiracy almost no matter who ends up on the committee unless it's composed of five guys from teams that are NEVER in the rankings or playoff chase.
02 is as far away from being serious about that statement as anyone could possibly be.
Broken sarcasm meter. Long day at the office today. My bad :)
no worries ;D
Pat Coleman,
Was that actually your 32,000th post here, or have you just stopped the counter at a nice round number?! :o
It costs me $88 to fly from Long Beach to Portland on Jet Blue.
With LINFIELD at #1 I could theoretically book three consecutive weekends now and see every game - only taking a $20 cancellation fee if they lost at home. 8-)
When they have to travel to the Midwest or Texas it costs $400 at best with 6 days notice.
My intentions are pure unadulterated self centeredness
Well.....I thought I understood how the Regional Ranking worked but now I don't understand it at all.
Quote from: Bluenote on November 06, 2013, 07:49:43 PM
Well.....I thought I understood how the Regional Ranking worked but now I don't understand it at all.
You understood how they are supposed to work.....not how they actually work ;)
Quote from: Hemingway13 on November 06, 2013, 06:19:19 PM
Pat Coleman,
Was that actually your 32,000th post here, or have you just stopped the counter at a nice round number?! :o
It was. Huh.
The problem with SOS is that, even though the numbers are objective, they still can lead to misleading judgements. Linfield has a surprisingly low SOS this year---through no scheduling fault of their own. They have had much higher SOSs in the past. Yet, this Wildcat team to date has been so dominating, that they appear as good as any Linfield team I have seen in 30 years.
I am sure other teams' supporters can make claims on why they should be ranked higher.
However, every playoff team should play one game on the road. That evens out everything. Prior playoff history and SOS should not give any team all home games before the Stagg Bowl.
GT
Quote from: George Thompson on November 07, 2013, 11:49:45 AM
The problem with SOS is that, even though the numbers are objective, they still can lead to misleading judgements. Linfield has a surprisingly low SOS this year---through no scheduling fault of their own. They have had much higher SOSs in the past. Yet, this Wildcat team to date has been so dominating, that they appear as good as any Linfield team I have seen in 30 years.
I am sure other teams' supporters can make claims on why they should be ranked higher.
However, every playoff team should play one game on the road. That evens out everything. Prior playoff history and SOS should not give any team all home games before the Stagg Bowl.
GT
While I understand the rationale behind this...how would you even make it happen. I mean, in a playoff format you don't know who will win each week and that makes it hard to ensure teams end up on the road. The best you could probably do is set semis each year in one region or another on a rotating basis (e.g. one year North and West get home semis, followed by South and East the next year). You could something similar with seeds (if they existed ;) ) but then it would all go to hell the minute an unexpected result occurred.
Or you could rent a stadium like baseball impractical as that would be.
All this will be loads of fun if, indeed, Division I ever has our playoff system. You think I complain, er, I mean, offer a dissenting opinion....
Quote from: D O.C. on November 07, 2013, 12:07:14 PM
Or you could rent a stadium like baseball impractical as that would be.
All this will be loads of fun if, indeed, Division I ever has our playoff system. You think I complain, er, I mean, offer a dissenting opinion....
Yeah I almost suggested a neutral site but then thought, how lame would that be not to have games on campus. It makes sense for baseball since they are playing multiple games and days in a row......but football needs the crowd!
I would be fairly satisfied if they simply made all 4 brackets equal in terms of top teams spread amongst each bracket evenly. Wow!.....what concept! :o
Quote from: Bluenote on November 07, 2013, 01:58:31 PM
I would be fairly satisfied if they simply made all 4 brackets equal in terms of top teams spread amongst each bracket evenly. Wow!.....what concept! :o
Ah, but how do we determine which are the top teams?
Quote from: Bluenote on November 07, 2013, 01:58:31 PM
I would be fairly satisfied if they simply made all 4 brackets equal in terms of top teams spread amongst each bracket evenly. Wow!.....what concept! :o
I suppose you'll help pay the traveling expenses for Linfield or MHB? In theory it's a good idea, until the NCAA starts racking up the traveling costs.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 02:01:22 PM
Quote from: Bluenote on November 07, 2013, 01:58:31 PM
I would be fairly satisfied if they simply made all 4 brackets equal in terms of top teams spread amongst each bracket evenly. Wow!.....what concept! :o
Ah, but how do we determine which are the top teams?
Between about 5 of us on this board, we could figure it out over a beer or two.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 07, 2013, 02:02:58 PM
Quote from: Bluenote on November 07, 2013, 01:58:31 PM
I would be fairly satisfied if they simply made all 4 brackets equal in terms of top teams spread amongst each bracket evenly. Wow!.....what concept! :o
I suppose you'll help pay the traveling expenses for Linfield or MHB? In theory it's a good idea, until the NCAA starts racking up the traveling costs.
That's pocket change for them..... ;)
Again, NCAA can put their money where their student athlete mouth is and spend that Final Four money promoting that concept.
Quote from: D O.C. on November 07, 2013, 02:15:11 PM
Again, NCAA can put their money where their student athlete mouth is and spend that Final Four money promoting that concept.
Right....that's gonna happen.
The Division III budget is so unchangeable that it is actually written into the NCAA constitution. Division III gets 3.18% of the entire NCAA budget and that is HIGHLY unlikely to change.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:38:56 PM
The Division III budget is so unchangeable that it is actually written into the NCAA constitution. Division III gets 3.18% of the entire NCAA budget and that is HIGHLY unlikely to change.
Wow, I am sure glad they can afford to spend that much! ??? ::) ;D ;)
Well! on our knees in thanks our 3.18 piece is greater than the pi itself.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 12:00:36 PM
I mean, in a playoff format you don't know who will win each week and that makes it hard to ensure teams end up on the road. The best you could probably do is set semis each year in one region or another on a rotating basis (e.g. one year North and West get home semis, followed by South and East the next year). [/quote]
That rotating semi-final idea has merit. Good idea.
Or, make MU
travel to the West region winner in the semi. I would love to see the Purple Raiders at the Catdome someday.
GT
Between about 5 of us on this board, we could figure it out over a beer or two.
[/quote]
Great idea!
GT
You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third and then neutral site for the semis.
Or you could always do it the best way, higher seed always hosts and if you're truly the better team you'll win at least 8 times out of 10.
Quote from: D O.C. on November 07, 2013, 05:49:09 PM
Well! on our knees in thanks our 3.18 piece is greater than the pi itself.
This post is no Trivial Pursuit! +k
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 07, 2013, 10:10:33 PM
You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third and then neutral site for the semis.
Wow, so I'm imagining a scenario where one team is a higher seed and has to travel to a team they beat in the regular season for the Rd 2 rematch. Not a fan ???
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:08:02 AM
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 07, 2013, 10:10:33 PM
You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third and then neutral site for the semis.
Wow, so I'm imagining a scenario where one team is a higher seed and has to travel to a team they beat in the regular season for the Rd 2 rematch. Not a fan ???
Yep, my high school had to go on the road to a team to a team it beat 47-14 in the regular season! 47-0 into the 4th quarter and the 14 points scored in garbage time against backups. Beat them 31-0 last Friday. But it would be a way to make sure every team played on the road at least one game like some want. I personally don't like that system.
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 08, 2013, 11:18:11 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:08:02 AM
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 07, 2013, 10:10:33 PM
You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third and then neutral site for the semis.
Wow, so I'm imagining a scenario where one team is a higher seed and has to travel to a team they beat in the regular season for the Rd 2 rematch. Not a fan ???
Yep, my high school had to go on the road to a team to a team it beat 47-14 in the regular season! 47-0 into the 4th quarter and the 14 points scored in garbage time against backups. Beat them 31-0 last Friday. But it would be a way to make sure every team played on the road at least one game like some want. I personally don't like that system.
Yeah, and at least that was one where the lower seed wasn't a major threat. What if it's a scenario where the higher seed already played the regular season game on the road and won a close fought contest. I digress...
Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.
But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:27:45 AM
Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.
But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.
I wouldn't want many more pool C bids without also having a national bracket. If any team in the MIAC was a pool C lock despite having two conference losses, the regular season would not be nearly as important as you'd just have to beat them again in the 1st or 2nd round. If you could send St. Thomas/Concordia out to the East and not let conference foes meet until the final four, then I'd be all for it.
Quote from: AO on November 08, 2013, 11:44:52 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:27:45 AM
Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.
But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.
I wouldn't want many more pool C bids without also having a national bracket. If any team in the MIAC was a pool C lock despite having two conference losses, the regular season would not be nearly as important as you'd just have to beat them again in the 1st or 2nd round. If you could send St. Thomas/Concordia out to the East and not let conference foes meet until the final four, then I'd be all for it.
That's a fair point and there's something to it. But even barring a national bracket, I'd still favor doing reasonable things to ensure we get the best 32 we can while still keeping a reasonable approach to access. If a MIAC, WIAC or CCIW champ had to play another conference school again rather than some 6-4 patsy, I'd be ok with it. The playoffs are supposed to be tough.
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:27:45 AM
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 08, 2013, 11:18:11 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:08:02 AM
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 07, 2013, 10:10:33 PM
You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third and then neutral site for the semis.
Wow, so I'm imagining a scenario where one team is a higher seed and has to travel to a team they beat in the regular season for the Rd 2 rematch. Not a fan ???
Yep, my high school had to go on the road to a team to a team it beat 47-14 in the regular season! 47-0 into the 4th quarter and the 14 points scored in garbage time against backups. Beat them 31-0 last Friday. But it would be a way to make sure every team played on the road at least one game like some want. I personally don't like that system.
Yeah, and at least that was one where the lower seed wasn't a major threat. What if it's a scenario where the higher seed already played the regular season game on the road and won a close fought contest. I digress...
Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.
But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.
On the first bolded passage: I think this is crucial to keep some SOS caveat there because it will discourage prospective champs in lesser conferences from scheduling tough OOC games. The ODAC and MIAA are two examples of conferences that tend to produce champions with "meh" overall records but that's partially due to the even nature of play in those conferences and their willingness to schedule decent/tough OOC games. It would discourage a team like, say, Albion - a contender for this year's MIAA crown - from scheduling that OOC game with Wheaton because there are years when going 4-2 in the MIAA will win the conference, and they wouldn't want to lose a playoff bid because they challenged themselves in OOC play.
On the second bolded part, this is absolutely true and why I ultimately think all the hand-wringing we do about who gets in Pool C and who hosts to be a bit silly (even though I participate as much as anyone). When the first ball is kicked off, in THEORY, any team can play their way to the title. We may "know" that only a handful of teams have a realistic chance, but few and far between are the times when a team truly good enough to win the title or reach the semis can claim they didn't have a fair chance when the season started.
Yeah, that's why I wrote it up as based on regional rankings rather than straight winning percentage. If a team has a lower record but really strong SOS and such, that should be reflected in a regional ranking.
Pat,
UR will travel no doubt, who would you guess they are going to play?
Thanks in advance
OD
Quote from: olddog on November 08, 2013, 12:57:55 PM
Pat,
UR will travel no doubt, who would you guess they are going to play?
Thanks in advance
OD
Not claiming to be Pat but I'd say there are too many unknowns to really answer this question. If PLU gets a pool C spot then Redlands could end up just about anywhere other than the West Coast. It depends on who gets in and how the committee decides to do things (will it be the way they usually do it or will it be more wide open like 2 years ago where teams got sent all over?). If PLU does not get a spot (which, IMO, should only happen if they lose to Whitworth this week), then Redlands is a slam dunk flight to Oregon.
Cat,
I agree with you on the later UR would head to LF. I will assume PLU is in, so looking at the other 6 teams in the west...it looks like they could make two more regional games. The question really is would UR go to the Midwest to play that odd team out, maybe Whitewater?. My guess Texas is not the next option for out of region, since TLU might get in and play MHB. So I could also see UR in Ill or ?...Pat seams to have a good handle on it.
OD
If PLU and Texas Lutheran get in the field then Redlands could go anywhere other than the east coast -- Bethel, North Central, Oshkosh, etc.
Still games to play on the West Coast.
That said, here's where things shifted:
Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out
Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)
How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU ??? Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?
Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.
Thoughts on that analysis?
Quote from: hazzben on November 09, 2013, 05:31:57 PM
Still games to play on the West Coast.
That said, here's where things shifted:
Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out
Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)
How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU ??? Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?
Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.
Thoughts on that analysis?
Yeah...the top 4 shouldn't change at all but the MIAC mess is hard to untangle. Especially since St. Thomas was not ranked in the first round.....so you have to bring them in unless you drop all the MIAC (except Bethel) out.....but with IC losing that opens up room for St. Thomas...Wartburg barely won but that will be enough to keep them in I'm guessing....I think Pacific gets in this week if they win.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 05:37:21 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 09, 2013, 05:31:57 PM
Still games to play on the West Coast.
That said, here's where things shifted:
Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out
Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)
How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU ??? Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?
Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.
Thoughts on that analysis?
Yeah...the top 4 shouldn't change at all but the MIAC mess is hard to untangle. Especially since St. Thomas was not ranked in the first round.....so you have to bring them in unless you drop all the MIAC (except Bethel) out.....but with IC losing that opens up room for St. Thomas...Wartburg barely won but that will be enough to keep them in I'm guessing....I think Pacific gets in this week if they win.
The top 4 could rearrange if, for example, Concordia drosp out and Pacific gets in
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
If Concordia drop out, assuming IC drops out as well, it's hard to imagine UST not getting 1 of the 2 open slots. Then again, Redlands and Pacific (with a win today) would have a case to be made as well.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked". So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:54:50 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked". So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....
OK, I missed that.
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:57:40 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:54:50 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked". So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....
OK, I missed that.
Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:59:13 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:57:40 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:54:50 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked". So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....
OK, I missed that.
Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....
Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know. Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 07:12:59 PM
Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know. Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?
Yep, should be Wednesday afternoon.
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 07:12:59 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:59:13 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:57:40 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:54:50 PM
Quote from: speedybigboy on November 09, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 06:04:55 PM
Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?
Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR. Remember, once ranked, always ranked. I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.
according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked". So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....
OK, I missed that.
Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....
Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know. Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?
Isn't that the truth? Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents..... but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead. I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings. Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list. OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked. So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 09:38:43 PM
Isn't that the truth? Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents..... but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead. I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings. Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list. OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked. So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.
It's a bit of a mess for sure.
One thing to keep in mind is that they might get rid of the once ranked always ranked criteria, but don't you think it still plays a psychological role? When they look at Redlands schedule, they won't see a signature win. When they look at the Cobbers, even if SJU is dropped out, they'll still point to it and see a team they liked enough last week to rank.
Plus, SJU doesn't technically 'drop out' until the rankings are published (if they even do at all). So this week, the entire time they discuss and debate, isn't SJU still a RRO result? So I think for this week anyway, SJU still counts during at least
some of the discussion, even if they end up falling out.
Bottom line, you could make a case for Redlands (Strong SOS, but who have they beat) or any of the MIAC schools (who all have more recent losses, but also all have a quality win) making the RR this week. Pacific and IC losing also makes it possible that Redlands does get ranked and that no MIAC teams drop out...potentially anyway. In that scenario, it would be a benefit for PLU, for a week anyway until the UWO-UWP result gives one of them a boost.
Really?
One more week and strange things can happen.
I know I need at least two games at home to make a great Fall out of a good one.
Quote from: hazzben on November 09, 2013, 11:37:36 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 09:38:43 PM
Isn't that the truth? Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents..... but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead. I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings. Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list. OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked. So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.
It's a bit of a mess for sure.
One thing to keep in mind is that they might get rid of the once ranked always ranked criteria, but don't you think it still plays a psychological role? When they look at Redlands schedule, they won't see a signature win. When they look at the Cobbers, even if SJU is dropped out, they'll still point to it and see a team they liked enough last week to rank.
Plus, SJU doesn't technically 'drop out' until the rankings are published (if they even do at all). So this week, the entire time they discuss and debate, isn't SJU still a RRO result? So I think for this week anyway, SJU still counts during at least some of the discussion, even if they end up falling out.
Bottom line, you could make a case for Redlands (Strong SOS, but who have they beat) or any of the MIAC schools (who all have more recent losses, but also all have a quality win) making the RR this week. Pacific and IC losing also makes it possible that Redlands does get ranked and that no MIAC teams drop out...potentially anyway. In that scenario, it would be a benefit for PLU, for a week anyway until the UWO-UWP result gives one of them a boost.
yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out. I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent. In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right? And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools. Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville).
You guys keep on parlaying the horses, poker and chess. My pet monkey and I will sit here and I'll teach her how to push slot buttons until the whole playoff thing works out.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2013, 08:57:11 AM
yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out. I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent. In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right? And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools. Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville).
That's how I see it. It's no longer once ranked always ranked, more like if ranked, ranked for at least two weeks when considering the team. So a team ranked in the 1st will still be treated that way in the 2nd. But if they drop out of the 2nd, they won't be treated like ranked for the 3rd.
At the end of the day, UWW, Linfield and Bethel are in good position. We've all clinched and are now playing for seeding. I'd rather split these hairs than the Pool C issues. If all 3 win next week, all 3 should be home for at least the first 2 rounds.
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2013, 10:14:45 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2013, 08:57:11 AM
yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out. I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent. In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right? And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools. Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville).
That's how I see it. It's no longer once ranked always ranked, more like if ranked, ranked for at least two weeks when considering the team. So a team ranked in the 1st will still be treated that way in the 2nd. But if they drop out of the 2nd, they won't be treated like ranked for the 3rd.
At the end of the day, UWW, Linfield and Bethel are in good position. We've all clinched and are now playing for seeding. I'd rather split these hairs than the Pool C issues. If all 3 win next week, all 3 should be home for at least the first 2 rounds.
I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!
For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 10, 2013, 10:32:51 AM
I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!
For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.
If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2013, 10:45:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 10, 2013, 10:32:51 AM
I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!
For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.
If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!
agreed--this seems likely based on history. Otherwise you will end up with a very heavy West and a very heavy North.....
it's not the first :o
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2013, 10:52:07 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2013, 10:45:51 AM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 10, 2013, 10:32:51 AM
I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!
For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.
If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!
agreed--this seems likely based on history. Otherwise you will end up with a very heavy West and a very heavy North.....
West regional playoff prediction:
PLU (4) @ Linfield (1) Why? Travel costs
St. Norbert @ UW-Oshkosh (3) Why? UW-Oshkosh is my 3rd seed team.
Redlands @ Wartburg Why? Either could be home game, but NCAA will hope for a Wartburg win, to minimize 2nd round travel cost.
St. Scholastica @ Bethel (2) Why? Bethel is my 2nd seed.
UW-WW goes to the North region. Six of the above eight have automatic bids, being conference champions. Two loss teams do not make the West Region playoffs, if not conference champion.
Of course, an unexpected upset next Saturday would change things.
GT
Quote from: George Thompson on November 10, 2013, 12:01:06 PM
West regional playoff prediction:
PLU (4) @ Linfield (1) Why? Travel costs
St. Norbert @ UW-Oshkosh (3) Why? UW-Oshkosh is my 3rd seed team.
Redlands @ Wartburg Why? Either could be home game, but NCAA will hope for a Wartburg win, to minimize 2nd round travel cost.
St. Scholastica @ Bethel (2) Why? Bethel is my 2nd seed.
UW-WW goes to the North region. Six of the above eight have automatic bids, being conference champions. Two loss teams do not make the West Region playoffs, if not conference champion.
Of course, an unexpected upset next Saturday would change things.
GT
Plausible barring any upsets next weekend. I still don't see Linfield being #1 based on Regional Ranking criteria however. I also could see Redlands getting sent to a higher *seeded* team to ensure they are one and done (for cost purposes ;) ). Or at the very least---sticking Redlands on the Linfield side of things so that, in case they won their first game, they'd go to Oregon (or washington) which would allow everything else to remain concentrated in the midwest.....
Looking at the SOS this morning, and I see Bethel dropped about a dozen spots after playing a 1-8 St. Olaf team. The same is going to happen to Whitewater next week after they play winnless UWRF squad. .
UWP and UWO will both get a big boost from playing each next week.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 10, 2013, 12:25:35 PM
Looking at the SOS this morning, and I see Bethel dropped about a dozen spots after playing a 1-8 St. Olaf team. The same is going to happen to Whitewater next week after they play winnless UWRF squad. .
UWP and UWO will both get a big boost from playing each next week.
yes. but one of them will also get a loss.
Keeping things straight can sometimes be a challenge. That being said....let's have a fluid half paying attention look at the AFCA poll. What's real and and what's just a shot off the cuff of ...
D. Puget Sound (Calif.), 79-3. I'd bet that UPS would have issue with thier current AFCA California address.
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
I'm not sure what else Bethel can possibly have happen to jump ahead of Whitewater. Best bet is it hope the Hawks get shipped to the North (for Bethel's sake).
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 13, 2013, 03:28:11 PM
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
Looks like the took UWW, 3-0 v. RRO and stronger SOS over Bethel,
4-0 EDIT: 3-0 v. RRO (Bethel hasn't played SJU yet) and a bit lower SOS. This makes sense right now.
What's interesting is that the SOS part may flip or become near identical with 0-9 UWRF and 7-2 SJU up next for each. On the flip side, if Bethel wins, they'll also lose one of their W's against a RRO. A Wash U loss would produce the same for UWW, and potentially the loser of UWP/UWO.
But at the end of the day, it sure looks to me, barring upset, like we are trending for UWW and Bethel to each get a #1 seed in the North and West. What will be interesting is to watch who is placed where and how the brackets are constructed.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 13, 2013, 03:28:11 PM
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
I'm not sure what else Bethel can possibly have happen to jump ahead of Whitewater. Best bet is it hope the Hawks get shipped to the North (for Bethel's sake).
The regional committee only counted 2 RRW for Bethel this week, but for the secret rankings they will count 4. They haven't played St. John's yet and St. Thomas doesn't count as a RRW until the following week as they just entered the rankings this week.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:35:54 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 13, 2013, 03:28:11 PM
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
I'm not sure what else Bethel can possibly have happen to jump ahead of Whitewater. Best bet is it hope the Hawks get shipped to the North (for Bethel's sake).
The regional committee only counted 2 RRW for Bethel this week, but for the secret rankings they will count 4. They haven't played St. John's yet and St. Thomas doesn't count as a RRW until the following week as they just entered the rankings this week.
We don't know how the committee is treating these wins v. RRO. You're making the assumption they don't count the current weeks. They might not, but for all we know they may as well.
Quote from: hazzben on November 13, 2013, 03:38:01 PM
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:35:54 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 13, 2013, 03:28:11 PM
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
I'm not sure what else Bethel can possibly have happen to jump ahead of Whitewater. Best bet is it hope the Hawks get shipped to the North (for Bethel's sake).
The regional committee only counted 2 RRW for Bethel this week, but for the secret rankings they will count 4. They haven't played St. John's yet and St. Thomas doesn't count as a RRW until the following week as they just entered the rankings this week.
We don't know how the committee is treating these wins v. RRO. You're making the assumption they don't count the current weeks. They might not, but for all we know they may as well.
exactly.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:35:54 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 13, 2013, 03:28:11 PM
Well....they're out. Bethel has 4 RRW, but still remains behind Whitewater in the West for the top spot.
I'm not sure what else Bethel can possibly have happen to jump ahead of Whitewater. Best bet is it hope the Hawks get shipped to the North (for Bethel's sake).
The regional committee only counted 2 RRW for Bethel this week, but for the secret rankings they will count 4. They haven't played St. John's yet and St. Thomas doesn't count as a RRW until the following week as they just entered the rankings this week.
Very true about St. John's...but as hazzben said, Bethel won't even get the chance to count St. John's as a regional win.
The St. Thomas theory, I'm not sure of that's true.
If C-M can stay in the RR after losing to a non-regionally ranked team, I assume the loser of the UWP/UWO game will remain as well. Considering whoever loses will have two losses...both to highly ranked RR teams.
Given a Wash U win on Saturday, I think UWW is safe with three RRO.
Quote from: hazzben on November 13, 2013, 03:38:01 PM
We don't know how the committee is treating these wins v. RRO. You're making the assumption they don't count the current weeks. They might not, but for all we know they may as well.
The regional committee is given the information about the regionally ranked wins prior to their vote on the rankings. I also believe that last year we learned that the regional committees don't readjust their rankings after they all submit their regional rankings. If Wash U had fallen off the list this week, the West RAC wouldn't know about it.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:47:26 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 13, 2013, 03:38:01 PM
We don't know how the committee is treating these wins v. RRO. You're making the assumption they don't count the current weeks. They might not, but for all we know they may as well.
The regional committee is given the information about the regionally ranked wins prior to their vote on the rankings. I also believe that last year we learned that the regional committees don't readjust their rankings after they all submit their regional rankings. If Wash U had fallen off the list this week, the West RAC wouldn't know about it.
Very interesting...I wonder if Pat or Keith could verify this.
With 7 teams in the Top 10 in West Region Rankings, the NCAA should just put 8 teams from the MIAC and WIAC into the playoffs. 1st and 2nd in each conference would be in the West and North regions. 3rd and 4th place teams would go East and South. The regional finals might have 5-8 teams from those two conferences. And the semi's could have four! After all, they are by far the toughest conferences.
GT
Quote from: George Thompson on November 14, 2013, 10:08:18 PM
With 7 teams in the Top 10 in West Region Rankings, the NCAA should just put 8 teams from the MIAC and WIAC into the playoffs. 1st and 2nd in each conference would be in the West and North regions. 3rd and 4th place teams would go East and South. The regional finals might have 5-8 teams from those two conferences. And the semi's could have four! After all, they are by far the toughest conferences.
GT
But what about the all-stratosphere teams?
Quote from: George Thompson on November 11, 2013, 11:40:15 PM
LC, MU and MHB seem to be in their own stratosphere this year/
GT
Three non-WIAC/MIAC in their own stratosphere??? Yeah right. Play somebody. ;D
Wash U wins its remaining game, and UWP squeeks by UWO.
I think it's safe to say those three will be in the Regional Ranks...which bodes well for UWW's #1 ranking.
We'll know for certain how things go down tomorrow.
FWIW, they should count a situation like the Bethel win over SJU as a Regionally Ranked victory, since the loss to Bethel is what knocks them out of the Rankings. It's kind of a Catch-22.
Bethel likely has 3 wins over RRO as well. Plus their SOS number is now a good deal stronger than UWW.
We won't know how they do it. But I think the case can be made for either. And UWW getting jumped wouldn't be out of the question based on criteria.
Why not just go with the criteria "once ranked, always ranked?"
New year, new regional rankings?
To start the comments from anyone, and everyone, here goes. Strange year, with only two unbeatens left in the West. Based on what I have seen so far, here are my picks for the West Region playoffs:
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wartburg
3. Bethel
4. Linfield
5. Chapman
6. St. John's
7. UW - Platteville
8. St. Scholastica
Of course this can change depending on the next two games.
George
The Linfield loss makes things interesting in the West. I wonder if the loss will allow the committee to ship MHB out here come playoff time, with Wartburg being the #2. That's assuming UWW goes North with Wheaton and the Bethel/St. John's winner.
Then of course Welsey will be the top dog in the South and UMU in the East.
Quote from: George Thompson on November 02, 2014, 07:35:21 PM
New year, new regional rankings?
To start the comments from anyone, and everyone, here goes. Strange year, with only two three unbeatens left in the West. Based on what I have seen so far, here are my picks for the West Region playoffs:
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wartburg
3. Bethel
4. Linfield
5. Chapman
6. St. John's
7. UW - Platteville
8. St. Scholastica
Of course this can change depending on the next two games.
George
credit to dtrain for this correction (made on the NWC board)
Decent attempt, but you left out the MWC. Not always an even 8 per region...and not really regions in the traditional sense anymore.
Quote from: d-train on November 02, 2014, 10:52:55 PM
Decent attempt, but you left out the MWC. Not always an even 8 per region...and not really regions in the traditional sense anymore.
This. jknezek just mentioned on the Pool C thread, and I agree.
Wally had a nice post a few weeks ago illustrating this:
2013:
Quad1- 3E, 2N, 3S
Quad2- 4N, 4W
Quad3- 1N, 3S, 4W
Quad4- 5E, 1N, 1S, 1W
2012:
Quad1- 2N, 6W
Quad2- 1E, 3N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 3E, 2N, 3S
Quad4- 4E, 1N, 3S
2011:
Quad1- 3E, 2N, 2S, 1W
Quad2- 3E, 1N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 1E, 4S, 3W
Quad4- 4N, 2S, 2W
There is no "West Region" playoff bracket. Nor any other region. The NCAA selects the four #1 seeds and builds a bracket around each one however possible.
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
You guys and your chess game..... :P
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 11:42:56 AM
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
Well, then it's two slots short of being a regional ranking...and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Quote from: hazzben on November 03, 2014, 11:53:51 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 11:42:56 AM
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
Well, then it's two slots short of being a regional ranking...and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Ha--I didn't contend that George had any idea what he was talking about ;)
Quote from: hazzben on November 03, 2014, 11:53:51 AM
..and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Well they
are undeafeated. But I have other teams just outside my West top ten (like PLU, Pacific, Redlands, Central, UWSP, UWO) that I'm sure would just roll the Saints. Same holds for the two one-loss teams from the MWC - I just couldn't find room for them.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 12:15:09 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 03, 2014, 11:53:51 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 11:42:56 AM
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
Well, then it's two slots short of being a regional ranking...and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Ha--I didn't contend that George had any idea what he was talking about ;)
No, no you did not :D
Quote from: d-train on November 02, 2014, 10:52:55 PM
Decent attempt, but you left out the MWC. Not always an even 8 per region...and not really regions in the traditional sense anymore.
D-train, you're right. I messed up and did not notice that the MWC had two divisions I assume the conference champ will get an automatic bid.
George
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 11:42:56 AM
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
Monrovia Cat, that is right. Regional Rankings are tough enough to estimate. The NCAA playoff schedule is impossible to predict.
George
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 12:15:09 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 03, 2014, 11:53:51 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 03, 2014, 11:42:56 AM
I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....
Well, then it's two slots short of being a regional ranking...and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Ha--I didn't contend that George had any idea what he was talking about ;)
Of course I don't know. Speculating rankings and playoffs is just fun. And seeing other, wiser opinons is always good.
GT
Quote from: d-train on November 03, 2014, 12:20:30 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 03, 2014, 11:53:51 AM
..and has St. Scholastica ranked ???
Well they are undeafeated. But I have other teams just outside my West top ten (like PLU, Pacific, Redlands, Central, UWSP, UWO) that I'm sure would just roll the Saints. Same holds for the two one-loss teams from the MWC - I just couldn't find room for them.
You're right about Redlands, the Bulldogs would roll all over the Saints.
I am restarting this old board as the Region 6 Regionally Ranked board.
For starters, this week's Top 25 has:
2) UMHB ASC
3) UWW WIAC
5) SJU MIAC
7) Linfield NWC
8) HSU ASC
11) UWL WIAC
16) Bethel MIAC
18) UWO WIAC
RV28) HPU ASC
RV29) Whitworth NWC
RV31) Chapman SCIAC
Unranked) Greenville UMAC
We can go down to #18 in the Poll as a proxy for the relative strengths of these teams. Pool A bids are in bold, if each runs the table.
(Please remember that the Top 25 is not a criterion for the committee. But, look how strong these teams are. With most schools playing 8 and 9 conference games, there are very few chances to get a regionally ranked opponent outside your conference.)
(Rank) (Team) (1st place votes) (Record) (Votes)( Ranking from the Previous Week) (Region)
1 North Central (Ill.) (17) 5-0 612 1 Region 5
2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (7) 5-0 592 2 Region 6
3 UW-Whitewater 5-0 581 3 Region 6
4 Mount Union (1) 5-0 562 4 Region 4
5 St. John's 5-0 502 6 Region 6
6 Wheaton (Ill.) 4-1 497 5 Region 5 Pool C bid
7 Linfield 4-0 466 7 Region 6
8 Hardin-Simmons 4-1 418 8 Region 6 Pool C bid
9 Delaware Valley 5-0 402 10 Region 1
10 Central 6-0 358 11 Region 5
11 UW-La Crosse 4-1 327 20 Region 6 Pool C bid
12 Washington and Jefferson 6-0 321 12 Region 3
13 Salisbury 3-1 310 13 Region 2
14 Johns Hopkins 5-0 300 15 Region 2
15 Union 6-0 294 14 Region 2
16 Bethel 4-1 273 16 Region 6 Pool C bid
17 Ithaca 5-0 246 17 Region 2 Pool C
18 UW-Oshkosh Region 6 Pool C bid
Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself. Four pool C bids from Region 6? That would be interesting to see.
A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings. Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids? And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions? So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to). It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.
Dunno. I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview. But thanks for this. Much appreciated.
For example, the MIAC. If SJU and BU win out and then BU lose again to the Johnnies in the conference championship, I don't think BU has a good chance at a pool C with two losses when competing against one loss considerations in all the other regions. On the flip side, if (God forbid) SJU loses to BU in the conference championship then SJU is probably the first pool C selection or maybe the second after the WIAC runner up (those two would be competing for 1st and 2cd pool C selection in that scenario, I reckon). HSU wins out and there are three pool C selections from region six in that second scenario. Otherwise I see one or at best two.
We'll see come end of the year.
EDIT: It would be a perverse unintended consequence of the MIAC championship format if it ends up virtually guaranteeing two post-season positions on a split and virtually guaranteeing only one with an undefeated team. I suspect it may make the odds of two MIAC teams in the post-season significantly less than they were before. But it improves the playability of the MIAC for the bottom teams. So, tradeoffs.
Both UWL and UWO have yet to play UWW, and I'm guessing each will have two losses once they do. While that certainly doesn't disqualify them from pool C consideration, it might give Bethel a stronger case if they play out to form, with another quality loss to the Johnnies. And you might have to let a couple others at least back into the pool C conversation (Wartburg, Gustavus Adolphus) out of 5 and 6.
UW-L's loss is to the current No. 6-ranked team in D-II.
Quote from: OzJohnnie on October 12, 2021, 08:10:04 PM
Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself. Four pool C bids from Region 6? That would be interesting to see.
A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings. Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids? And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions? So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to). It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.
Dunno. I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview. But thanks for this. Much appreciated.
A lot of this is going to play itself out in conference play. UWO will likely have two losses. UWL likely will as well. While they're going to be "quality" losses, I think UWLs resume will be better with beating UWO and a loss to a highly ranked D2 team, but in the past it's been very difficult to get in with two losses. This might be the year that's different, but UWO would have two in region losses, and UWL only one. Provided everything shakes out like I assume it will.
Remember, the RR don't take anything from the D3FB top 25, so while it's an okay barometer, it's not the be all end all when making these guesses.
Quote from: colinsteinke on October 13, 2021, 09:55:21 AM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on October 12, 2021, 08:10:04 PM
Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself. Four pool C bids from Region 6? That would be interesting to see.
A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings. Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids? And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions? So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to). It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.
Dunno. I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview. But thanks for this. Much appreciated.
A lot of this is going to play itself out in conference play. UWO will likely have two losses. UWL likely will as well. While they're going to be "quality" losses, I think UWLs resume will be better with beating UWO and a loss to a highly ranked D2 team, but in the past it's been very difficult to get in with two losses. This might be the year that's different, but UWO would have two in region losses, and UWL only one. Provided everything shakes out like I assume it will.
I don't think a second loss to a top 10 D2 team will be the Pool C kiss of death.
It will be interesting to see who gets ranked and who just misses the cut, region to region. Does a two loss GAC have any shot at getting ranked in Region 6 (I doubt it), compared to a potential two loss Wartburg (who GAC beat) in region 5?
This will be one of the more fascinating runs up to selection, and selection Sunday's we've had in quite some time. Given all we don't know about how the new structure will play out.
If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I'd consider them a one loss team.
Quote from: emma17 on October 13, 2021, 03:13:41 PM
If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I'd consider them a one loss team.
I think NWC is likely to produce a one-loss runner-up. SCIAC could as well. And in Region 5, MWC's runner-up is likely to be 9-1. Not that they'd have the SOS or OOC RRO to lean on or just about any other transitive-properties argument... but 9-1 is 9-1.
In any case, somebody's (and likely a few somebodies) not gonna like what they hear on Nov 14.
Quote from: WW on October 13, 2021, 04:01:42 PM
Quote from: emma17 on October 13, 2021, 03:13:41 PM
If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I'd consider them a one loss team.
I think NWC is likely to produce a one-loss runner-up. SCIAC could as well. And in Region 5, MWC's runner-up is likely to be 9-1. Not that they'd have the SOS or OOC RRO to lean on or just about any other transitive-properties argument... but 9-1 is 9-1.
In any case, somebody's (and likely a few somebodies) not gonna like what they hear on Nov 14.
Honestly, the biggest thing working against Bethel in a second loss to SJU, is that the final loss would come at home. The challenge will be asking two questions. Do we think any of the other runners-up would/could have beaten SJU? And how close are those losses to their Pool A conf champs?
9-1 and you got blown out, is different than 9-1 and you lost in a competitive game. Same for Bethel, if you have two losses to SJU (hoping it's only 1 obviously), better have the second be as respectable and close as the first was.
Bottom line, it's really early. We have no idea at this point how many 1 loss teams will be on the table and if a two loss team will even get consideration. Time will tell.