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D3soccer.com => Men's soccer => Topic started by: Cheesehead Henry on November 10, 2014, 10:16:17 PM

Title: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Cheesehead Henry on November 10, 2014, 10:16:17 PM
Obviously there are the frontrunners of Messiah, Oneonta, and Wheaton, but what are everybody's predictions for underrated teams who have the ability and potential to make a run?

Concordantly, how about teams who just might be making early exits that people wouldn't expect?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: GarbageGoals33 on November 10, 2014, 10:24:52 PM
Dark Horse: Gustavus. They have the offensive tools to make a deep run. They are riding a red hot keeper. If their defense continues putting forth solid performances they will be competing in every game. The MIAC has had limited success in recent years, these GAC seniors have played in 3 consecutive NCAA tournaments.

Potential upset: Trinity (Tx). One loss team, not hosting, in a quadrant with the team that gave them their loss.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Knighthaws on November 10, 2014, 10:39:52 PM
Garbagegoals, as a Wartburg faithful I was relieved when GAC wasn't put into Wartburg's pod.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: casualfan on November 11, 2014, 12:43:05 AM
I'm going to go with a first round GAC loss to Dominican. The MIAC has not done well in the tourney for a number of years and this year will be no different. Dominican has shown success in the past in the tournament and have some very experienced players as well.

My dark horses for the Midwest region, which is what I'm most familiar with, are Chicago & Dominican.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Saint of Old on November 11, 2014, 08:09:19 AM
Cortland St. is having almost the same season Oneonta had in 2011. I would not be too surprised to see these boyz make a deep run as well.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: D3Soceerfan on November 11, 2014, 11:39:12 AM
Babson/Cortland . Wouldnt be surprised if they make a run and potentially beat Messiah.(yes a tall order i know)

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 11, 2014, 11:49:34 AM

Can Babson handle the pace of Newark?   I do not see Newark losing that one... 

MSU did lose at Cortland this year.  If I had to say who is better MSU or Newark it's a close call.  MSU has more firepower and is way more dangerous in the offensive third, but Newark is the more complete team.   After choking vs Roger Williams last year in their first ever NCAA appearance, I think they could be poised to make a run.

My dark horse would be the obvious choice of Rochester. 

Tufts would be my second team.  They should be able to beat a Dickinson team that has struggled as of late, and then beat another Centennial school, Muhlenberg.    I think Catholic will best Coast Guard in OT.  I can also see North Park as a dark horse in their quadrant.

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: D3Soceerfan on November 11, 2014, 11:51:29 AM
Babson just handled the pace of Wheaton, who many considered to be among the best in the nation with the likes of Blair and Co.

I like their chances in this one but see it as an open game that could be unusually high scoring
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 11, 2014, 11:55:29 AM
I remember in 2011 when Camden was shipped up to the NE/East to play Babson (who had a 19 or 20 game unbeaten streak) @ SLU and won 1-0.   The game is still on youtube.     

I asked on the forum for comparison of the 2011 Oneonta St vs current Oneonta St team.   In 2011, Oneonta St handled Calvin, but Vegter came in and buried his chances.    The one middy from Oneonta St. hit a rocket from 25 out a few minutes into the game, but then they struggled to defend said beast, Vegter in the box letting up 4 unanswered goals on very few opportunities.


http://www.ncaa.com/video/soccer-men/2011-12-03/calvin-takes-down-oneonta-state-advance
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: D3Soceerfan on November 11, 2014, 11:58:21 AM
agree, was at the Camden Babson game at SLU.. Felt Babson should have won that but didnt take their chances..

Babson's defense has seemed to fixed the leaks it had earlier in the year and seem to be finding scrappy goals.

Not sure anyone wants to make it out of this pod tho as Messiah awaits
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 12:13:47 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 11, 2014, 11:49:34 AM

Can Babson handle the pace of Newark?   I do not see Newark losing that one... 

MSU did lose at Cortland this year.  If I had to say who is better MSU or Newark it's a close call.  MSU has more firepower and is way more dangerous in the offensive third, but Newark is the more complete team.   After choking vs Roger Williams last year in their first ever NCAA appearance, I think they could be poised to make a run.

My dark horse would be the obvious choice of Rochester. 

Tufts would be my second team.  They should be able to beat a Dickinson team that has struggled as of late, and then beat another Centennial school, Muhlenberg.    I think Catholic will best Coast Guard in OT.  I can also see North Park as a dark horse in their quadrant.

Yeah, as a Kenyon supporter North Park is worrisome...a dangerous, unfamiliar, sort of unknown team.  And because the Calvin/OWU pod is Fri/Sat Kenyon would know who is waiting and could get caught looking ahead (especially if it is OWU).
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 12:20:51 PM
Babson has had a sneakily and under the radar fantastic season.  I had to do a double take when I saw their record is 17-5.  Seems like they were 11-5 about a week ago.  And a great achievement for them winning a tough NEWMAC tournament this year.  Especially since home field landed in their lap I could see them getting by Newark (although I'm picking Newark), but I'm guessing Cortland even at home would be too much for them.  As for Messiah and Babson I see that as a 5-6 goals win for the Falcons.  I see Cortland in that group as having the best chance of dragging Messiah through a 0-0 or 1-0 game.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 11, 2014, 01:43:37 PM
I've got Wartburg going to the Elite 8.  From what I've read and (albeit limited) seen, they have the style of a team that can grind out some results in the tourney.  As was said elsewhere, though, which team shows up will be the difference maker.

I see a Whitworth/Christopher Newport matchup in the round of 16.  Whitworth has been totally unmentioned by anybody on these boards while a team they beat away from home (Wheaton) is being quoted as a lock in the first few rounds.   
CN had a bad patch in mid/late October but they corrected themselves and avenged their three bad results in the conference tourney - a good sign for a team heading into the tourney.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 04:36:17 PM
wingtips2, another team that hardly ever gets mentioned, especially for an East Coast/Mid-Atlantic team is Muhlenberg.  And I think you could be right about Whitworth.  I haven't seen any evidence that Emory can score goals.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 07:37:56 PM
You think some UAA teams are anemic upfront? Just watch Babson if Laurenzo is shut down. Babson is capable of parking the bus against better teams but will have a hard time scoring against quality sides
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 07:54:30 PM
Wheaton's strategy apparently was to shut down Laurenzo in the NEWMAC semis.  It didn't work out too well for them.  You want to really talk anemic, look at the AQ from NESCAC.  Bowdoin won the NESCAC tournament without scoring a single goal in the finals or semi-finals and were shut out in 5 of their last 8 games.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 07:57:00 PM
Wheaton is soft on the defensive side and they can let up goals.Just look at Nescac 9th place team Trinity Ct won 4-3 over Wheaton. Wheaton will be out after the 2nd round also if they cannot score goals
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 07:59:07 PM
Emory (and they were considered one of the top 4 at large teams here) has scored 2 goals in 6 games.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:02:05 PM
Wheaton's starting keeper, Dickey, has a 0.32 GAA.  Trinity feasted on the freshman backup.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 08:08:06 PM
I do not think so. You cannot blsme the keeper in that game. I was at that game and Wheaton's defense was very soft. They can be scored on by teams with the ability to do so
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:12:28 PM
Against ranked teams in the regular season, Wheaton gave up only 2 goals in 5 games.  But don't let actual results get in the way of your narrative.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 08:14:32 PM
Should we be paying more attention to Morrisville and Thomas More?  Maybe Morrisville is the team in that quad that can take out the Falcons, or will they lose to King's?  And are we sure North Park beats Thomas More who only lost twice and only bad loss was 1-0 to Anderson (the other 2-1 to DePauw)?

Morrisville has an interesting roster with a bunch of internationals and more states represented than you would guess.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 08:18:51 PM
Is is possible that Berry takes out Emory, Covenant beats Whitworth or Lynchburg surprises old friend CNU and/or Stevens knocks out Montclair?  Which is the most likely upset?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 08:20:30 PM
Can Rose Hulman pull the double and beat Calvin on Calvin's home field?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 08:24:05 PM
No one is talking about one of my fave unknowns, MSOE.  We're talking about far Wartburg might go, and MSOE might be primed for an upset special.  Wheaton will be hoping for that result.  And I definitely could see St. Scholastica taking out Chicago.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 08:30:52 PM
Quote from: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:12:28 PM
Against ranked teams in the regular season, Wheaton gave up only 2 goals in 5 games.  But don't let actual results get in the way of your narrative.




In your world robots play the games not humans.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:36:36 PM
Mr. Right, I'm saying that it might be prudent to base opinions on an entire body of work, backed up by real honest to goodness results, rather than on one personal observation of a single game when the starting GK and at least one back were not playing.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:45:46 PM
And besides, it was a mid-week game requiring travel during mid-terms, it was a bad field, Pilger was more clever in scheduling, the team was tired from the Babson game and Trinity used unfair tactics.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 09:02:26 PM


Quote from: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:36:36 PM
Mr. Right, I'm saying that it might be prudent to base opinions on an entire body of work, backed up by real honest to goodness results, rather than on one personal observation of a single game when the starting GK and at least one back were not playing.









Funny you did not mention all the players missing when Bowdoin played Babson or the injured Williams players when Babson beat them, but when to argue your points you conveniently include this information.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Saint of Old on November 11, 2014, 09:06:38 PM
Wheaton MA has skilled players but have to go play their very best two games of the season to make it to the sweet sixteen. This is the dance boyz. No 1/2 stepping, no blaming injuries, its win or go home.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 09:14:35 PM
Tell me about it. Off Pitch primary goal here is to trash Nescac schools.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:22:41 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 08:24:05 PM
No one is talking about one of my fave unknowns, MSOE.  We're talking about far Wartburg might go, and MSOE might be primed for an upset special.  Wheaton will be hoping for that result.  And I definitely could see St. Scholastica taking out Chicago.

What do you know about MSOE NCAC? They have played many of the teams in the North region, but I have heard hardly anything about them
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 09:28:14 PM
Quote from: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:22:41 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 08:24:05 PM
No one is talking about one of my fave unknowns, MSOE.  We're talking about far Wartburg might go, and MSOE might be primed for an upset special.  Wheaton will be hoping for that result.  And I definitely could see St. Scholastica taking out Chicago.

What do you know about MSOE NCAC? They have played many of the teams in the North region, but I have heard hardly anything about them

I know virtually nothing about them, but I started noticing their results, and that combined with regularly getting ignored or dissed, made me a distant fan.  I don't like seeing the little guys get screwed (like John Carroll, Roanoke, Wabash, Kzoo, etc).  Based on their results I could see them holding Wartburg off the scoreboard or allowing just one and staying in the game.

Can you tell us about MSOE?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 09:36:39 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 09:02:26 PM


Quote from: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 08:36:36 PM
Funny you did not mention all the players missing when Bowdoin played Babson or the injured Williams players when Babson beat them, but when to argue your points you conveniently include this information.

The difference is I did not make any sweeping assumptions or disparaging comments about Williams or Bowdoin based on those single games.  (And of course Babson was also missing players for those games.   ;))
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:44:38 PM
My Dark horse is the team with the player who has the farthest throw-in... is there a player with a throw that the player on hope had last year haha??
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 09:46:49 PM
Quote from: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:44:38 PM
My Dark horse is the team with the player who has the farthest throw-in... is there a player with a throw that the player on hope had last year haha??

Babson.  And that's how they got first goal against Wheaton this past weekend.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:51:57 PM
Ok babson to the ship then! ;D
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 09:52:27 PM
Quote from: Saint of Old on November 11, 2014, 09:06:38 PM
Wheaton MA has skilled players but have to go play their very best two games of the season to make it to the sweet sixteen. This is the dance boyz. No 1/2 stepping, no blaming injuries, its win or go home.

I agree mostly.  Wheaton will have to play its best game to get past Tufts (a game that should be tremendously fun to watch), but Daniel Webser is another matter entirely. 

I am not blaming any loss on injuries.  I am attempting to point out how ludicrous it is to base a contrary opinion on a single game that is simply not representative of an overall body of work.  Not many teams would fare well if they were only judged based on their worst games, but that is mr right's modus operandi to denigrate non-NESCAC competitors.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 10:04:24 PM
FYI, Thomas More has given up 2 goals in last 10 games.  MSOE has given up 5 in last 10.  MSOE stats in final away at Dominican were even, so it wasn't like outshot 18 to 3 and won.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: casualfan on November 11, 2014, 10:13:16 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 09:28:14 PM
Quote from: Durantula on November 11, 2014, 09:22:41 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 08:24:05 PM
No one is talking about one of my fave unknowns, MSOE.  We're talking about far Wartburg might go, and MSOE might be primed for an upset special.  Wheaton will be hoping for that result.  And I definitely could see St. Scholastica taking out Chicago.

What do you know about MSOE NCAC? They have played many of the teams in the North region, but I have heard hardly anything about them

I know virtually nothing about them, but I started noticing their results, and that combined with regularly getting ignored or dissed, made me a distant fan.  I don't like seeing the little guys get screwed (like John Carroll, Roanoke, Wabash, Kzoo, etc).  Based on their results I could see them holding Wartburg off the scoreboard or allowing just one and staying in the game.

Can you tell us about MSOE?

I posted this in the North Region thread for predictions, but I'll add a little more.

Logan Andryk & Braden Andryk are very, very good players for MSOE. They are the 2 reasons that MSOE finds themselves in the NCAA tournament. Lots of individual skill combined with great soccer brains. Logan leads the nation in assists. He's a pure playmaker, playing as a box-to-box midfielder. He takes every free kick, every throw-in, and the right footed in-swinging corners. Braden takes the left in-swinging corners. Braden is left-footed and is an outstanding finisher. He's also a freshman, but he has the confidence of someone much older. He creates shooting windows for himself and puts them away consistently. Shut these two down and MSOE will struggle to score.

Skow is a center back who is quite good as well. He's the one rock solid player in the back and scores plenty of goals from set pieces. Logan and Braden both serve in outstanding balls and Skow and a few others are able to convert more often than not. Take care of business defensively on set pieces, and you're in good shape.

Farin (GK) has great stats, but can be beat. Not the best in the air and gives up rebounds. MSOE has been privileged to not give up too many opportunities so his GAA & save % look pretty good.

Only other players of note are a few foreign players who have a bit of flair (Silas Linares) & height (Witte). Nothing too dangerous but decent role players.

Overall, I could definitely see the Raiders pulling a first round upset over Wartburg, especially if they are looking ahead at other matchups. Logan & Braden Andryk are game changers and if Wartburg cannot defend them for 90 minutes, MSOE could prevail.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 10:17:23 PM
So, in other words, and as argument against weighting SOS TOO heavily, MSOE would have been a worthy entry even without the AQ?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:20:31 PM
Just saw Logan is a transfer from Marquette and more awesome for me is their coach. Jimmy Banks was a great defender for the US national team that I saw in Italy in 1990. I always wondered where he and a few other players from that team ever went. I love gathering new info like this.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 10:25:08 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 09:14:35 PM
Tell me about it. Off Pitch primary goal here is to trash Nescac schools.

I have a challenge for you mr right to put up or shut up.  Find even one example of where I have offered a negative opinion about a NESCAC school.  Should be very easy to do if it is my primary goal.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:29:42 PM
I can think of a bunch of times but I am to lazy to search your posts and frankly do not feel like reading all your trash
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 11, 2014, 10:31:45 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:29:42 PM
I can think of a bunch of times but I am to lazy to search your posts and frankly do not feel like reading all your trash

Ok, name one that you can think of.  Should be very easy for you since you can think of a bunch of them.  Go ahead.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 10:32:50 PM
You guys are starting to ruin the threads.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: casualfan on November 11, 2014, 10:34:42 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:20:31 PM
Just saw Logan is a transfer from Marquette and more awesome for me is their coach. Jimmy Banks was a great defender for the US national team that I saw in Italy in 1990. I always wondered where he and a few other players from that team ever went. I love gathering new info like this.

You're correct on Jimmy Banks' background but not with Logan. He actually went to Marquette University High School, who is a powerhouse in Wisconsin high school soccer. I believe Braden also went there. I'm sure they both had offers at larger schools but wanted to focus on academics as MSOE is one of the premier Engineering schools in the Midwest.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2014, 10:36:48 PM
Quote from: casualfan on November 11, 2014, 10:34:42 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:20:31 PM
Just saw Logan is a transfer from Marquette and more awesome for me is their coach. Jimmy Banks was a great defender for the US national team that I saw in Italy in 1990. I always wondered where he and a few other players from that team ever went. I love gathering new info like this.

You're correct on Jimmy Banks' background but not with Logan. He actually went to Marquette University High School, who is a powerhouse in Wisconsin high school soccer. I believe Braden also went there. I'm sure they both had offers at larger schools but wanted to focus on academics as MSOE is one of the premier Engineering schools in the Midwest.

How does it stack up with Rose-Hulman and that other one outside Detroit?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:38:36 PM
My bad.  I think I will watch their game as Banks was one of my favorite players on that team. He was a very athletic back for that time period
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: WarhawkFan on November 11, 2014, 10:58:48 PM
CasualFan has the gist of it as far as MSOE goes.  The Andryk brothers are extremely dangerous.  If you can manage to keep them off the score sheet you've got a good shot at beating them, but that's easier said than done!  UWW (in a Loras inspired man-marking formation) managed to do so in their 1-0 win over MSOE but the Andryks still combined for 4/7 of MSOE's SOG.  Regardless of how MSOE does in this tournament, I can't wait to see what they can do with Braden as a Sophomore and Logan being a Senior next year!

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 10:17:23 PM
So, in other words, and as argument against weighting SOS TOO heavily, MSOE would have been a worthy entry even without the AQ?

Are they worthy? As far as talent goes, I think yes.  However the regional committee snubbed them from all three rankings so without the AQ I don't believe they would have gotten in.

Quote from: Mr.Right on November 11, 2014, 10:20:31 PM
Just saw Logan is a transfer from Marquette and more awesome for me is their coach. Jimmy Banks was a great defender for the US national team that I saw in Italy in 1990. I always wondered where he and a few other players from that team ever went. I love gathering new info like this.

Random tidbits for you Mr. Right:  Speaking of coaches (and brothers)... MSOE Assistant Coach Rob Harrington coached both UWW Assistant Coach (Dan Montanye) and UWW Midfielder (Michael Montanye) at their club in high school (FC Milwaukee).
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 12, 2014, 10:14:07 AM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 08:14:32 PM
Should we be paying more attention to Morrisville and Thomas More?  Maybe Morrisville is the team in that quad that can take out the Falcons, or will they lose to King's?  And are we sure North Park beats Thomas More who only lost twice and only bad loss was 1-0 to Anderson (the other 2-1 to DePauw)?

Morrisville has an interesting roster with a bunch of internationals and more states represented than you would guess.
Thomas Moore has lost 5 straight first round games - don't see them primed for a run.

As for Morrisville, besides Rochester, they haven't played anybody remotely good - a complete unknown.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Brother Flounder on November 12, 2014, 10:57:00 AM
Tufts or Bowdoin......
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Off Pitch on November 12, 2014, 11:33:32 AM
Tufts.  Even though they are the NESCAC AQ, Bowdoin is 2-3-3 in their last 8 games and has been shutout in 5 of those games.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: oldonionbag on November 12, 2014, 01:13:52 PM
Agreed. If the Jumbos play to their potential (there it is again- POTENTIAL) I think they will reach at least the Sweet 16.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: D3MidAtlantic on November 14, 2014, 01:11:46 PM
Early Exits: Husson, Fitchburg State, Westminster (MO), Neumann, Baruch and Heidelberg

Dark Horses: Christopher Newport--playing at home, can put up crooked numbers, and back line playing better down the stretch; Catholic--a stingy defense and clutch in PK shootouts makes them a tough out. IF they score more than a goal, they could surprise (lastguyoffthebench--I don't consider Muhlenberg to be a dark horse as champion of the Centennial--but agree they have (somehow) been under the radar).

Best First Round matches: Rochester v. Salisbury and Tufts v. Dickinson (I am admittedly not familiar with teams in the Central Quadrant, but based on posts, sounds like some compeititve action awaits!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 14, 2014, 04:06:10 PM

I have the Mules going down vs Tufts, D3MidAtlantic.

I have Berry over Emory.   Berry only suffered a 1-0 defeat this year to them, but won in 2012 and 2013.

I think the Husson game will be the biggest landslide of this round 5-0, but Mr. Right has a feeling Husson can pull it out.   I just can't see it...  2nd biggest thrashing will probably be Wheaton MA 4-0 and Amherst 4-0.

Call me crazy, but one that seems highly under the radar is Hardin-Simmons over Trinity...  wouldn't shock me to see this one get to PKs.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 14, 2014, 04:27:00 PM
These teams along with some weak AQ's will be going home early: F&M, Brandeis,Chicago,Christopher Newport, Montclair St, Emory, OWU, Wheaton MA

My Sweet 16:

Atlantic- Oneonta v Salisbury and Bowdoin v Amherst

Central-  Wheaton v Wartburg and Loras v Trinity

North East- Messiah v RUN and Tufts v Muhlenberg

East- Kenyon v Calvin and Whitworth v Stevens


Biggest Upset:

St.Scholastica over Chicago 

Final 4:
Messiah, Oneonta, Calvin, Loras

The UAA and NEWMAC will struggle.
Besides Messiah any 3 of those Final 4 teams could miss out on the Sweet 16.
Toughest bracket I have ever filled out and I love to gamble so that should say something. I have never filled out a bracket and said to myself this team could be in the Final 4 and after thinking about it said they could be upset in the round of 32. So much parity...Love it

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 14, 2014, 04:32:35 PM

Oneonta St vs Rochester
Bowdoin vs SLU

Wheaton vs MSOE (also have CSS over Chicago)
Trinity vs Loras

Messiah vs RU-N
Tufts vs Muhlenberg

Kenyon vs OWU
Whitworth vs MSU


Oneonta St, Wheaton, Messiah, MSU


I agree, Mr. Right.... incredibly wide open this year.   
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 14, 2014, 04:42:29 PM
Yes and I have some games that could be upsets and some that will NOT be upsets in the 1st round.

Possible but unlikely:

Husson over Brandeis
Nichols over Oneonta
Lynchburg over CNU
Thomas More over North Park
Berry over Emory
Heidelberg over Kenyon

Would bet my house on the favorite:

Wheaton MA v Daniel Webster
SLU v Purchase
Amherst v Fitchburg St
SUNY Cortland v Neumann
Muhlenberg v Baruch
OWU v Penn St Behrend

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 17, 2014, 02:30:45 PM
Quote from: wingtips2 on November 11, 2014, 01:43:37 PM
I've got Wartburg going to the Elite 8.  From what I've read and (albeit limited) seen, they have the style of a team that can grind out some results in the tourney.  As was said elsewhere, though, which team shows up will be the difference maker.

I see a Whitworth/Christopher Newport matchup in the round of 16.  Whitworth has been totally unmentioned by anybody on these boards while a team they beat away from home (Wheaton) is being quoted as a lock in the first few rounds.   
CN had a bad patch in mid/late October but they corrected themselves and avenged their three bad results in the conference tourney - a good sign for a team heading into the tourney.
Wartburg?  Still alive!
Whitworth vs. CNU?  Correct!!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: oldonionbag on November 17, 2014, 03:12:05 PM
Quote from: oldonionbag on November 12, 2014, 01:13:52 PM
Agreed. If the Jumbos play to their potential (there it is again- POTENTIAL) I think they will reach at least the Sweet 16.

LOL well wingtips, if we're tooting our own horns... ;)
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 17, 2014, 04:12:19 PM
Quote from: oldonionbag on November 17, 2014, 03:12:05 PM
Quote from: oldonionbag on November 12, 2014, 01:13:52 PM
Agreed. If the Jumbos play to their potential (there it is again- POTENTIAL) I think they will reach at least the Sweet 16.

LOL well wingtips, if we're tooting our own horns... ;)
It's all us old has-beens have, so we might as well....
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 23, 2014, 11:26:35 PM
Oneonta and Wheaton showing they were deserving of their top seeds. 
Tufts showing themselves as a talented 'dark horse' and knock off the champs.
Can CNU pull off the win against the dreaded OWU?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 24, 2014, 12:17:37 AM
way to state the obvious wingnips
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 24, 2014, 09:36:40 AM

I'm thinking Wheaton over CNU at this point... 
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 24, 2014, 03:38:39 PM
CNU loses their upset bid against OWU in pk's.

I was doing well on picks into the 16, but I only end up with a few in the 8 and none of the final 4.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: lastguyoffthebench on November 24, 2014, 03:46:49 PM
Only have 2 final four correct after hitting 6 of 8 for elite 8

I like Wheaton over Oneonta St, even though the Red Dragons have stamped itself as a top 5 program over the last 4 years (2 final 4 appearances), IMO.

OWU/Tufts PKs...

Wheaton wins it all.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: wingtips2 on November 25, 2014, 02:16:56 PM
Wheaton - OWU final
OWU in OT
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: KnightFalcon on November 25, 2014, 02:31:54 PM
I've seen Wheaton, OWU and Tufts play this year in person and Oneonta last year. I do think the champ will come from the Wheaton/Oneonta side but I'm still wrestling with who that will be. And I think if Tufts has a chance to get settled (ie., they don't fall behind early), they will beat OWU. The speed Tufts has on the outside will be very tough for OWU to handle with their outside backs. Martin won't be able to scheme that advantage away.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Brother Flounder on November 25, 2014, 02:49:22 PM
Quote from: KnightFalcon on November 25, 2014, 02:31:54 PM
I've seen Wheaton, OWU and Tufts play this year in person and Oneonta last year. I do think the champ will come from the Wheaton/Oneonta side but I'm still wrestling with who that will be. And I think if Tufts has a chance to get settled (ie., they don't fall behind early), they will beat OWU. The speed Tufts has on the outside will be very tough for OWU to handle with their outside backs. Martin won't be able to scheme that advantage away.

I also will go with Tufts on that side of the bracket due to the speed and SOS.  The other side is a toss-up.......
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 25, 2014, 04:16:44 PM
You keep mentioning the SOS as though the SOS correlates with winning games, or, by itself, makes someone a favorite.  That's not my understanding.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Brother Flounder on November 25, 2014, 04:19:51 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 25, 2014, 04:16:44 PM
You keep mentioning the SOS as though the SOS correlates with winning games, or, by itself, makes someone a favorite.  That's not my understanding.

NCAC, I may be confused but doesn't playing a harder schedule prepare you better for playing harder opponents in the NCAA.... If I am mistaken, please let me know......
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 25, 2014, 04:32:52 PM
Sort of, but I don't think it's actually predictive.  I certainly wouldn't pick a team because they are at .605 and another team is at .565.  And at this point every team in the final four has come through the fires.  OWU's SOS may be lower than Tufts, but do you know how many huge games OWU has played over the last 4 years, and the experience in big games that many of their starters have?  Now I'm not picking OWU here because of any of that, but just sayin'.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 25, 2014, 07:24:36 PM
What huge games? The last 2 years they have been knocked out in the 1st round. Ill give you 2011 but that was 3 years ago
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Flying Weasel on November 26, 2014, 07:58:42 AM
Quote from: Brother Flounder on November 25, 2014, 04:19:51 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 25, 2014, 04:16:44 PM
You keep mentioning the SOS as though the SOS correlates with winning games, or, by itself, makes someone a favorite.  That's not my understanding.

NCAC, I may be confused but doesn't playing a harder schedule prepare you better for playing harder opponents in the NCAA.... If I am mistaken, please let me know......

So is a 4-10-2 team that played a .585 SOS more prepared for the NCAA tournament than a 11-3-3 team that played a .545 SOS?

SOS by itself mean little because tells you nothing about the team of interest and only something about their opponents.  Messiah has never had the SOS of the NESCAC or UAA schools, but they haven't seemed underprepared for the tournament.  Over the past decade, Dominican has made Sweet 16 and Elite 8 runs with SOS's only a little over .500; would Bates or Colby-Sawyer have done better with their SOS's over .550?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: PaulNewman on November 26, 2014, 10:00:49 AM
^^^^Exactly.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Mr.Right on November 26, 2014, 11:11:38 AM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 26, 2014, 07:58:42 AM
Quote from: Brother Flounder on November 25, 2014, 04:19:51 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 25, 2014, 04:16:44 PM
You keep mentioning the SOS as though the SOS correlates with winning games, or, by itself, makes someone a favorite.  That's not my understanding.

NCAC, I may be confused but doesn't playing a harder schedule prepare you better for playing harder opponents in the NCAA.... If I am mistaken, please let me know......

So is a 4-10-2 team that played a .585 SOS more prepared for the NCAA tournament than a 11-3-3 team that played a .545 SOS?

SOS by itself mean little because tells you nothing about the team of interest and only something about their opponents.  Messiah has never had the SOS of the NESCAC or UAA schools, but they haven't seemed underprepared for the tournament.  Over the past decade, Dominican has made Sweet 16 and Elite 8 runs with SOS's only a little over .500; would Bates or Colby-Sawyer have done better with their SOS's over .550?



I agree with your argument but not sure why Colby-Sawyer is included in this argument. They are usually one of the worst teams in New England and in one of the weakest conferences in the country
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Flying Weasel on November 26, 2014, 12:57:11 PM
Oops!  Meant Colby, not Colby-Sawyer.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Predictions
Post by: Nutmeg on December 11, 2014, 07:35:14 PM
Quote from: Brother Flounder on November 12, 2014, 10:57:00 AM
Tufts or Bowdoin......

Not bad, Flounder...to pick this at the beginning...if I could give karma I would!