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D3soccer.com => Women's soccer => Topic started by: gobash83 on November 14, 2014, 03:31:57 PM

Title: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: gobash83 on November 14, 2014, 03:31:57 PM
Well, the first game of the tournament has already provided a surprise, with Hope knocking off host #4 Wheaton 1-0 in the 105th minute. While there was a wide disparity in shots taken (35 for Wheaton and 16 for Hope), the number of shots on target were much closer (14 for Wheaton and 10 for Hope). Congratulations to Hope, who faces the winner of the Ill. Wesleyan v. Dubuque matchup later this afternoon.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 14, 2014, 07:38:30 PM
Wow... what an upset!  That is one of the magical things about tournament time... it is a one game season six times and anything can happen!  Hopefully it will for the Crusaders too!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: gobash83 on November 15, 2014, 08:25:07 PM
Some more upsets today so far, with #11 Washington U, #13 Emory, and #23 UW-Whitewater all losing.  Tough day for the UAA!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 15, 2014, 08:45:49 PM
Never fear.... although they are all out of the tournament they will all be rewarded with a Final National Ranking... that is the way the  DIII Ranking world works!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: woacfan on November 15, 2014, 11:05:19 PM
Quote from: gobash83 on November 15, 2014, 08:25:07 PM
Some more upsets today so far, with #11 Washington U, #13 Emory, and #23 UW-Whitewater all losing.  Tough day for the UAA!
UAA is probably the most interesting conference in DIII.  It is essentially all large schools spread across the East and Midwest.  Each school has a huge recruiting base.  Every year, UAA schools get a lot of attention from the folks that do the rankings.  They've had a number of runners up, but haven't fielded a National Champion since the University of Rochester won the Title in 1987.  I remember watching the Capital game against Washington U. last year and the announcer was in utter disbelief until the final moment of the game. 

I could go on about how neither the NCAA ranking system nor the supposed computer analytic ranking models are accurate (both favor "insiders" by giving disproportionate weight to wins over other "insider" programs), but in the end, the only real result is how deep you run in the tourney.

Messiah and Wheaton have been the two dominant powers since 2000.  Both are smaller schools committed to excellence in the sport. 

I'm cheering for Capital, but if they stumble I'll start pulling for Lynchburg.  They've had quite a year and look to me as deserving as anyone in the UAA or NESAC.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: jaybird44 on November 16, 2014, 01:09:43 AM
My friend, I'm not the only one in collegiate soccer circles who was in utter disbelief regarding the outcome of that Capital-WashU game.  Not by a long shot
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 16, 2014, 07:37:37 AM
That is the beauty of sports!  Including Gettysburg yesterday that makes four nationally ranked programs the unranked Crusaders have dispatched in the last two tournament.   

Maybe, just maybe, they focus their team efforts and importance on the tourney rather than the regular season .... so that lets them "upset" all the teams who are better than them? 

By the way this year they start five freshman and two sophomore. ... wonder what's ahead?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:28:50 AM
Quote from: jaybird44 on November 16, 2014, 01:09:43 AM
My friend, I'm not the only one in collegiate soccer circles who was in utter disbelief regarding the outcome of that Capital-WashU game.  Not by a long shot

One more comment on this thread.  I hope Capital wins today, but I think Messiah will be a tall order for them.  Last year, however,  they deserved their deep run.  Then, when the awards came out,  they largely were overlooked.  When the final rankings came out,  they were largely overlooked.  Their win over Wash.  was not against the run of play.  There were portions of the game when Wash looked better, but there were also times when Cap. had the run of play.

So, to say there were many  "in collegiate soccer circles who [were] in utter disbelief" confirms the point I was making; i.e. insiders look to insiders.   This year, as almost every year,  there will be a number of non-insider programs who will make it deep into the tourney.  Its just they won't be rewarded with awards or rankings.  So, as I said yesterday,  their reward will be the deep run in the tournament.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: WUPHF on November 16, 2014, 12:07:30 PM
Quote from: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:28:50 AMI hope Capital wins today, but I think Messiah will be a tall order for them.  Last year, however,  they deserved their deep run.  Then, when the awards came out,  they largely were overlooked.  When the final rankings came out,  they were largely overlooked.  Their win over Wash.  was not against the run of play.  There were portions of the game when Wash looked better, but there were also times when Cap. had the run of play.

I was at that game, but maybe I am remembering another game.

I expect quarterfinal games to be competitive even when the No. 1 team is involved.  But the Bears were the better team that day.  Capital did not win on the run of play.  Capital won in penalties.

Again, maybe I am remembering another game, but when I look at the stats, for example, Capital had 8 shots (6 on frame) while Washington University had 38 (20 on frame).  Capital had 19 saves compared to 5 for Washington University.

WUSTL would have advanced if the games were determined by play overall.  Thankfully that is not the case.  Capital deserved to advance because they scored the most goals.

As far as the UAA is concerned, most of the UAA schools are medium sized with approximately 4,000-6,000 undergraduates each with NYU being the outlier with +10,000.  The notion that they have an advantage in recruiting is not unique to the UAA.  The NESCAC and WIAC, for example, hear the same thing.

The UAA does play a non-conference slate just like everyone else in Division III and they play more than just other insiders.  And, they do still have three teams advancing to play today.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: mmccrr on November 16, 2014, 02:20:52 PM
I second WUH! 
I also watched Capital v Wash and was in disbelief as well.  Wash was the better team top to bottom player for player. Any one who watched knew and the box score doesn't lie. Its also considered a Tie and not a Win... so they tied 2 UAA teams ( Chicago and Wash) last year in the NCAAs they did not win.

Advancing on PKs is cruel...but the rules.  Capital advanced rightfully so.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:32:21 PM
I am afraid I've started the wrong argument.  I really am not trying to run down Washington, the UAA or any other conference or program. Rather, I was offering a comment on the ranking system that favors "insiders"  over outsiders. I'm not even certain how I would see it improved. I suggested Capital as an example last year because despite making it to semis they didn't get a whole lot of respect.
Even if you are of the mindset that Washington was far superior, then at least respect the Cap keeper who kept them in the game.   
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 16, 2014, 08:58:09 PM
Well mmccrr.... thnk you for showing your depth of knowledge!  First the Crusaders beat Chicago scoring on a corner kick, it was not a tie, they DEFEATED THEM!  Second, for WUH, even if you read the story on the Wash U website it clearly states the Crusaders came out after the half and had a run of play including earning corner kicks and the set piece they scored on.  Anyone who looks at the quotes after the game, or watched the coaches interview, is aware that Capital never claimed to be better player for player.  In fact, they said if they played ten times Wash U would probably win nine... however... the Crusaders did score in regulation to even the game and send it to overtime.  They then proceeded to take the PK shootout on the same field that had not seen Washington fail to advance in many years!  That is what sports are all about..... imagine if those piss poor American College Hockey Players in the 80 Olympics only went by the box score.... We all know the Russians were better so why not just give them the Gold Medal?

Your comments trying to belittle the tremendous team effort that allowed Capital to knock off nationally ranked Chicago, UW-Whitewater, Thomas More and then eliminate Wash U on PK's is the type of closed minded and short sighted comments that are exactly why people believe there are the Division III "Insiders" and then everyone else.  Soccer is a game that is not decided by box scores and although they don't lie they also don't tell the whole story.  For instance do 30 shots on goal but only scoring 1 goal tell the story that Wash U needs to work on finishing?  Does the fact Capital only took 8 shots and put 5 of them on goal, scoring one, mean they are better at finishing than Wash U or take better percentage shots?  Does the fact that Capital ran a great set piece and scored a goal in regulation mean that Wash U was outcoached?  Does the fact that Wash U was outscored in pk's mean their players are not strong enough mentally to have beaten a scrappy nobody?  Of course not.  But, but to not acknowledge that there is more in the soccer world than your limited vision of the game is ridiculous.

Soccer is a game of teams and teams have stories and stories are powerful motivating factors.  Read all the box scores you want and in the end the team dedicated to each other, with a coaching staff who knows the right buttons to push at the right times,  and whose willing to do everything that needs to be done to win, will win more than they will lose.

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: WUPHF on November 16, 2014, 11:13:38 PM
Quote from: woacfan on November 16, 2014, 08:32:21 PMI really am not trying to run down Washington, the UAA or any other conference or program.

But, that is how it sounds to me.

If I wanted to take this conversation further, I would ask you to explain how Lynchburg is an outsider program that has not be awarded all due respect.  The Lynchburg squad that is ranked No. 1 in D3soccer.com, Massey Ratings, and the NCAA regional rankings.  If you could answer that, then I would have really enjoyed hearing how Wheaton is an outsider program.

No need to answer.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: WUPHF on November 16, 2014, 11:30:22 PM
Quote from: CrusaderNation on November 16, 2014, 08:58:09 PM
Your comments trying to belittle the tremendous team effort that allowed Capital to knock off nationally ranked Chicago, UW-Whitewater, Thomas More and then eliminate Wash U on PK's is the type of closed minded and short sighted comments that are exactly why people believe there are the Division III "Insiders" and then everyone else.  Soccer is a game that is not decided by box scores and although they don't lie they also don't tell the whole story.  For instance do 30 shots on goal but only scoring 1 goal tell the story that Wash U needs to work on finishing?  Does the fact Capital only took 8 shots and put 5 of them on goal, scoring one, mean they are better at finishing than Wash U or take better percentage shots?  Does the fact that Capital ran a great set piece and scored a goal in regulation mean that Wash U was outcoached?  Does the fact that Wash U was outscored in pk's mean their players are not strong enough mentally to have beaten a scrappy nobody?  Of course not.  But, but to not acknowledge that there is more in the soccer world than your limited vision of the game is ridiculous.

Soccer is a game of teams and teams have stories and stories are powerful motivating factors.  Read all the box scores you want and in the end the team dedicated to each other, with a coaching staff who knows the right buttons to push at the right times,  and whose willing to do everything that needs to be done to win, will win more than they will lose.

I am not sure what to do with this.

I had no idea that I was not allowed to cite a few statistics without a two paragraph disclaimer about how statistics don't tell the whole story.  Clearly, because I chose to include a few statistics, I know next to nothing about the game.

I am not sure you actually read my post, but maybe after the pain and heartache of the 5-1 loss to Messiah wears off, you can go back and read it again.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 17, 2014, 08:20:17 AM
What I said was the game is not dictated by "statistics" and pointed out how those "statistics" can be interpreted.... none of which truly mean anything when it comes to the result.  Your assumption that Wash U was the better team on the day is your opinion (mine is they had better players but were not the better team) and that because Capital did not advance in the run of the game implies they somehow magically appeared in pk's against the far superior team.  It is a backhanded compliment that the complete team effort and unity that they played with to score in regulation sending it to OT and then to score more goals in pks to win is lessened because it did not happen in 90 minutes.

... and to be clear the sting of a Regional Final loss at Messiah has nothing to do with last year or an arrogance that your view of the game is the view of the game, but, as one of the last 32 teams standing of the 427 in DIII we will take the sting and relish it's significance!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: WUPHF on November 17, 2014, 11:55:29 AM
I said everyone expects quarterfinal matches to competitive, but that Washington University was the better team.  I'll be surprised if anyone else steps up to dispute that claim.

You are convinced that I said that Washington University was the far superior team and that Capital won in penalties only by the grace of God or magic or whatever.

I am not walking back what I said.  I am telling you exactly what I said.

Between the references to the Miracle on Ice, that Capital was a scrappy nobody, and the suggestion that the team with the complete team effort and unity won the game, obviously, you are so caught up in the underdog narrative that you cannot read a simple post for what it is.

I look forward to your next post in which you reference David and Goliath, and if who knows...maybe Malcolm Gladwell and the inverted U-curve?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on November 17, 2014, 12:36:17 PM
The turn in this thread from 2014 NCAA Tournament to "whatever" proves once and forever that 6 x 9 really does equal 42.  I saw the Cap/Messiah game yesterday.  It was an interesting match-up of two very different styles of play.  Soccer anyone??
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: gobash83 on November 17, 2014, 01:02:01 PM
Quote from: 2xfaux on November 17, 2014, 12:36:17 PM
The turn in this thread from 2014 NCAA Tournament to "whatever" proves once and forever that 6 x 9 really does equal 42.  I saw the Cap/Messiah game yesterday.  It was an interesting match-up of two very different styles of play.  Soccer anyone??

Yes, speaking of the 2014 NCAA Tournament, here are the Sweet 16:

Messiah
Messiah vs. Nazareth
Lynchburg vs. Montclair State

Chicago
Illinois Wesleyan vs. Chicago
Centre vs. Aurora

Carnegie Mellon
Carnegie Mellon vs. Johns Hopkins
Trinity (TX) vs. Thomas More

Williams
Williams vs. Roger Williams
TCNJ vs. Misericordia

I am most familiar with the teams at Chicago and Carnegie Mellon, having seen Thomas More, Centre and Illinois Wesleyan play in person this year. It should be an interesting round of games next weekend.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 17, 2014, 01:38:05 PM
Gobash I am intrigued by why you think this round of games will be interesting.  What are you thoughts on the teams you have seen play?  I ask because it seems that most of the comments from people here who have seen teams play in person have been very NESCAC and Ohio focused.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on November 17, 2014, 02:57:13 PM
Quote from: Purplegatorade on November 17, 2014, 01:38:05 PM
Gobash I am intrigued by why you think this round of games will be interesting.  What are you thoughts on the teams you have seen play?  I ask because it seems that most of the comments from people here who have seen teams play in person have been very NESCAC and Ohio focused.

Agree...as one of those NESCAC followers, would also like to hear other points of view on the games coming up.  :)
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 17, 2014, 04:37:31 PM
Messiah was very impressive this weekend!  Their speed of play was superior to anyone Capital has played in a long time but it was their defensive pressence that put the Crusaders in an early hole which they weren't cawling out of!

Based of what teams I've seen this year or last I expect the Elite Eight to be Messiah v Lynchburg /  Chicago v Aurora /  Trinity v Carnegie Mellon and  Williams v Misercordia.   

The Messiah v Lynchburg game will be worth the price of admission and I believe will pan out as National Champions!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: mmccrr on November 17, 2014, 06:16:43 PM
Crusader. fwiw I read your sched wrong from last year.  You did in fact beat Chicago.  I suppose this is where you tell me to know my facts before you read them or something. Just know it was an honest mistake. 

I am most familiar with the UAA and would love to hear all POV's.  Ive seen Carnegie a bit... they are strong...but thats a tough weekend ahead. If Lynch gets by Messiah they are my bet for Natl champs.

To go off of crusader i agree with all advancing except I choose Ill Wes over Chicago and TCNJ over Misercordia
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 18, 2014, 11:24:07 AM
I think another thing to look at is the regions that the remaining 16 teams are from.  I think it speaks volumes to the depth and competitive nature of certain regions.

Messiah vs. Nazareth (Mid Atlantic,East)
Lynchburg vs. Montclair State(South Atlantic, South Atlantic)

Illinois Wesleyan vs. Chicago (Central, Central)
Centre vs. Aurora(South Atlantic, Central)

Carnegie Mellon vs. Johns Hopkins (Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic)
Trinity (TX) vs. Thomas More(West, Great Lakes)

Williams vs. Roger Williams(New England,New England)
TCNJ vs. Misericordia (South Atlantic, Mid Atlantic)
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 18, 2014, 12:55:57 PM
At one time Purple Centre was also Great Lakes Region, but, that said I think it is pretty representative of where competitive teams in the NCAA Tournament have come from in the past few years.

In the past 5 Final Fours:[/b]
2013:  Wm Smith (East ) , Trinity (West), Middlebury (New England), Capital (Great Lakes)
2012:  Messiah (Mid Atlantic), Emory (South Atlantic), Misercordia (Mid Atlantic) Wheaton (Central)
2011:  Messiah (Mid Atlantic), Wheaton (Central), Ithica (East), Wm Smith (East )
2010:  Hardin Simmons (West), Messiah (Mid Atlantic), Otterbein (Great Lakes), Wm Smith (East )
2009:  Messiah (Mid Atlantic), Wash U (Central), Lynchburg (South Atlantic), TCNJ (South Atlantic)

Thats: 
Mid Atlantic (5) - 2 teams / East (4) - 2 teams / South Atlantic (3) - 3 teams / Central (3) - 2 teams / Great Lakes (2) - 2 teams / West (2) - 2 teams / New England (1) - 1 team

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 18, 2014, 01:51:23 PM
Crusader, I agree on it being representative of where competitive teams come from.  I do find it interesting that a few teams have changed regions over the years. I also find it interesting that one region has not been represented in the past five Final Fours.  What does that say, if anything, about that region?
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on November 18, 2014, 03:01:21 PM
It's cold up there!!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on November 18, 2014, 06:02:21 PM
My first thought, when I saw the "Mid-Atlantic Quad" match-ups for this weekend was "amazing a Sunday Messiah/Lynchburg match" but then I looked at Nazareth and Montclair State's resumes and realized that Saturday should be very interesting.  Four very good teams.  Hopefully the weather cooperates.     
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: gobash83 on November 18, 2014, 06:23:22 PM
For what it is worth, here are my observations about the teams that I have seen in person that are still in the tournament.  These observations are conditioned on the fact that they are snapshots of the team and their opponent and conditions at the time.

The Thomas More match I saw showed the Saints to be a very physical team.  The match was chippy but not necessarily dirty, just rough.  TMC has two prolific goal scorers (#2 and #6) who work hard for their opportunities.  I saw Illinois Wesleyan twice and they are fast and athletic.  While they can play possession and buildup, they tend to fall into their strength with some hopeful long balls to the wings, counting on speed to win the opportunity.  They can get caught short-handed in transition but recover well and their back line can hold their own. Centre was probably the most technically sound of the three. They play a lot of players in a game and keep everyone fresh.  Good solid ball movement and like to work up the middle instead of the wings.

One of the interesting things about the matchups this round is that a few teams are getting a chance to get out of the shadow of some of their conference's traditional powers (IWU instead of Wheaton and Chicago instead of WUSTL and Emory).  Also, the "Chicago" bracket has three schools in it that are relatively close in proximity and the players may have some familiarity with each other.  I am also interested in seeing how TMC matches up with Trinity.  TMC has been building a solid program the last few years and I think that Trinity will be a good opponent for them to measure against.

I think I agree with most of CrusaderNation's picks for the Elite 8, though it wouldn't shock me to see Illinois Wesleyan work their way in over Chicago.   
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on November 19, 2014, 04:34:46 PM
I know these days games that are tied after two overtime periods go to PKs but looking at the D-3 Women's tournament history it seems that in the early days (1989, 1990, and 1994) games went to four overtime periods before PKs??  Does anyone know when that changed?  I hate PKs but just the idea of watching, or more to the point playing through four overtimes gives me cramps. 
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 20, 2014, 11:00:02 AM
There is some familiarity with UC, IWU and Aurora.  All three played each other this year.  With each team having a 1-1 record against each other.  Each team got their win away.  UC beat Aurora 3-2 with a heartbreaking goal with seconds left.  IWU beat UC at Chicago.  This was a game I commented on in a previous post.  IWU had solid control until UC had their final flurry.  Aurora beat IWU in a late season game in which they were dominated.  Aurora was out shot 20(8) -7(1).  Their lone shot on goal was their goal.  I think revenge will be on team's minds this weekend.  I think the winner of the UC and IWU game will come out of this pod and play in the Final Four.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: wchandy22 on November 20, 2014, 07:58:32 PM
Quote from: 2xfaux on November 18, 2014, 06:02:21 PM
Hopefully the weather cooperates.   

The forecast this weekend in Grantham looks better than last weekend.  Regardless, the field is in great condition and I believe we are set to see three exciting games featuring four solid teams.

Saturday -- Sunshine mixing with clouds and not as cold, high of 43

Sunday -- Some sun, then turning cloudy with periods of rain late in the afternoon, high of 52
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on November 24, 2014, 05:09:56 PM
What a great bunch of games on Sunday.  PKs, OT, and two 1-0 results, it doesn't get much better than that.  Lynchburg and Williams have both been here before and would seem to be the favorites but Hopkins and IWU are both very solid as well.  I hope the weather in Kansas City plays along.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 24, 2014, 10:32:58 PM
I would echo faux.  The games this weekend were great.  A lot of hard fought well deserved victories.

Something to think about with this Final Four.  3 At Large Births. 2 teams ranked #1 in their regions and more tidbits below:

Lynchburg: AQ NSCAA #1 #1 in South Atlantic Region ODAC (#28 Bennett Conference Rank)
IWU: At Large NSCAA NR(Receiving Votes) #5 Central Region CCIW (#5 Conference Rank)
Johns Hopkins: At Large NSCAA  #20 #3 Mid Atlantic Region Centennial Conference (#7 Bennett Conference Rank)
Williams: At Large NSCAA #5 #1 New England Region NESCAC (#3 Bennett Conference Rank)
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on November 28, 2014, 03:10:28 PM
With all due respect to all of the teams involved in the Final Four I would be amazed if Lynchburg does go somewhat comfortably through to the National Championship.  I commented in the Elite Eight I thought the winner of Mess v Lynch would be the title holder and I think that is still going to ring true.

HOWEVER, if there is an upset I would go with Williams sneaking it out for the title.... either way should be a fun weekend!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on November 30, 2014, 02:59:11 AM
Crusader, I would be very interested on an in-depth view on why you feel this way.  Are you basing this upon seeing the teams play, or solely based upon stats and other 3rd party objectives?  I will agree that Illinois Wesleyan University is the odd team out in Final Four, but they have played against some very good teams.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on December 01, 2014, 09:02:54 PM
I've had the chance to see Lynchburg, JHU & Illinois Wesleyan play either live or on video.  I've not seen Williams play, but, know a great deal about their players, coach and history.  So, my opinion is based on those things.  Of course it is just my opinion, but, the attacking presence that Lynchburg brings would appear to be very difficult for IWU or JHU to deal with defensively.  Thus, that is why I feel the way I do.

But, who knows what will happen.... afterall it's soccer! 
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 02, 2014, 09:30:52 AM
Sharing a recent post made on the NESCAC site for my 2 cents about Williams v. JHU:

If we believe the Massey Ratings, Williams has a win pobability of 53% v. 32% for JHU in a match-up. Williams defense/offense is rated #1 / #5 v. #15 / #7 respectively for JHU.

Goals/game and shot percentage are pretty even (Williams at 2.64/.124 and JHU at 2.65/.144) while both have outstanding scorers in Kirshe/Thomas (Williams) and Kroniker/Teng (JHU). GAA average is 0.44 (Williams) v. 0.64 (JHU).

I think in this game both teams can score. But with the #1 top-rated defense, a strength-of-schedule rating of #1 as a differentiator and the motivation to reverse last year's JHU result...I'll go with the old motto that 'defense wins championships' and align with the smart money and take Williams in a victory.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on December 02, 2014, 03:32:12 PM
The Massey/Bennett stuff aside (I think they both thought Wash U. was the team to beat), I think the Williams v Hopkins game will be a good one.  I imagine a physical game with perhaps a couple of yellows.  I think the team that keeps it's composure will win and I think that will be Williams.  I wish IWU good luck but Lynchburg will be tough.  Good coaches (and these are all good coaches) find weaknesses to exploit but you would be hard pressed to find a weakness in Lynchburg.  They are really solid front to back and have depth to support it everywhere. So, I expect a Williams v Lynchburg final and no matter what happens we will have a first time D3 Women's Champion which will be very exciting.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 03, 2014, 03:50:25 PM
Quote from: 2xfaux on December 02, 2014, 03:32:12 PM
The Massey/Bennett stuff aside (I think they both thought Wash U. was the team to beat), I think the Williams v Hopkins game will be a good one.  I imagine a physical game with perhaps a couple of yellows.  I think the team that keeps it's composure will win and I think that will be Williams.  I wish IWU good luck but Lynchburg will be tough.  Good coaches (and these are all good coaches) find weaknesses to exploit but you would be hard pressed to find a weakness in Lynchburg.  They are really solid front to back and have depth to support it everywhere. So, I expect a Williams v Lynchburg final and no matter what happens we will have a first time D3 Women's Champion which will be very exciting.

Well said 2xfaux!!!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 06, 2014, 07:58:40 AM
Congraulations to the Lady Ephs last evening...knocking-off JHU in dramatic fashion and advancing to the title game today. The stats weren't pretty but the defensive performance and result was!

Best of luck in bringing home the first Women's Soccer National Championship to both Williams and to New England later today!!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: nescac1 on December 06, 2014, 09:22:26 AM
Congrats to the Ephs!  Once again, Audrey Thomas comes through ... third straight game-winner for her, really clutch (apparently, she had a second goal disallowed on what sounded like a controversial offsides call).  Not their usual all-out assault on the goal, but impressive to keep JHU off the board and they made the shots they did take count.  No doubt, it's tough to turn around from a very tough game that ended past 10:00 and play at 6:30 today, so the Ephs' impressive depth (which is all the more impressive considering that two key players suffered season-ending knee injuries mid-season) will need to be a factor tonight. 

For the first time all season, Williams will be the underdog tonight.  Lynchburg's statistics are scary ... undefeated this year, 48-2-1 over the past two years, and their top two players, both senior all-Americans, combined for 58 (!) goals on the season, which is pretty insane.  Granted, they play in a much weaker conference than NESCAC, but they have played well vs. the best in D3 -- they beat Johns Hopkins in a non-conference tilt, and of course went toe-to-toe with Messiah for the tie in the NCAA quarterfinals (and that was playing without Bosco, their top player and a fifth-year senior), not to mention impressive wins over IWU and Montclair State.  It's tempting to say that whoever wins the battle of Kirshe / Thomas vs. Dupuy/Bosco will come out on top today, but I have a feeling a key goal will come at the foot of someone from outside the big four.   One thing is for sure: the Ephs will have to bring their A game if they hope to knock off the Lynchburg juggernaut!  Hopefully finally playing as the underdog will take a bit of the pressure off. 

Just for this, I say the Ephs deserve the title: http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/wsoc/2014-15/releases/201412041wvblm.  Go Ephs! 

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on December 06, 2014, 12:28:46 PM
If last nights matches were any indication the final today will be great.  Lynchburg took a punch to the mouth :19 seconds in from a team many didn't give a prayer to be in the game.  Lynchburg responded well.  It did help their cause their first goal was a bit of a gift.

It will be interesting to see if Williams takes a page from the IWU playbook.  IWU did well of denying Lynchburg their bread for the majority of the game.  I think Williams will present a different set of problems for Lynchburg. I think Williams takes the title with a 2-1 win.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on December 06, 2014, 01:30:25 PM
I missed the IWU goal but I am sure it staggered Lynchburg.  I did see most of the rest of the game.  I am not sure that Bosco's goal was a "gift", although the play by play guy seemed to think so.  The field was, I imagine, still very wet and Bosco was there and made a great shot from a very severe angle.  The IWU defense did a great job, as you said, of disrupting Lynchburg's attack.  If Williams can get an early goal, as they did last night against Hopkins, Lynchburg could be in trouble.  It will be fun to watch.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 06, 2014, 02:59:52 PM
Quote from: 2xfaux on December 06, 2014, 01:30:25 PM
I missed the IWU goal but I am sure it staggered Lynchburg.  I did see most of the rest of the game.  I am not sure that Bosco's goal was a "gift", although the play by play guy seemed to think so.  The field was, I imagine, still very wet and Bosco was there and made a great shot from a very severe angle.  The IWU defense did a great job, as you said, of disrupting Lynchburg's attack.  If Williams can get an early goal, as they did last night against Hopkins, Lynchburg could be in trouble.  It will be fun to watch.

Agree that Bosco's goal was not a 'gift'. That was an insane goal by her from what looked liked a severe and crazy angle from the extreme right side of the goal post and net. I watched it twice with the replay and it was simply an unbelievable shot that was spot-on. I asked myself..."how did she do that"?

If Lynchburg gives Williams as much space as they did IWU, the Williams possession game will be a challenge for Lynchburg.

Here's hoping the Ephs bring the trophy home to New England!

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: CrusaderNation on December 06, 2014, 03:15:29 PM
Half my prediction is complete with Lynchburg and Williams advancing to the final.  Still holding firm with champion prediction of Lynchburg... even with slow starts feel there is just too much fire power... but love to see Williams pull the upset too.  2-0 final prediction
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 06, 2014, 03:23:32 PM
Quote from: Purplegatorade on December 06, 2014, 12:28:46 PM
If last nights matches were any indication the final today will be great.  Lynchburg took a punch to the mouth :19 seconds in from a team many didn't give a prayer to be in the game.  Lynchburg responded well.  It did help their cause their first goal was a bit of a gift.

It will be interesting to see if Williams takes a page from the IWU playbook.  IWU did well of denying Lynchburg their bread for the majority of the game.  I think Williams will present a different set of problems for Lynchburg. I think Williams takes the title with a 2-1 win.

I concur that Williams will present a different set of problems for Lynchburg tonight. Specifically, I think the Williams possession game and overall team speed will be challenges for Lynchburg.

And the real weapon is the Williams defense...tops in the nation. And of course, Williams defenders are quite used to facing an offenses 'fleet of foot'...including 2014 All-Americans Kempainen (Conn), Kronick (JHU), Bengoechea (JHU), Kaiser (Roger Williams) and Krishnamacher (MIT) to say nothing of the fact that they face Kirshe / Thomas day-in and day-out at practice. So they clearly understand how to adjust, protect and kick-start the offense.

Once again, as the old saying goes, 'Defense wins Championships'. I'll take the Ephs in a victory in what should be yet another compelling game.


Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Purplegatorade on December 06, 2014, 08:04:37 PM
In my analysis I take nothing away from the finish itself.  As others have stated it was a quality finish from a tight angle.

The reason I say it was a gift is she should have never had a chance to take that shot.  One of two things should have happened. Either IWU gk handles the ball cleanly or she shields and let's that ball go out of bounds.
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: woacfan on December 07, 2014, 09:25:12 AM
Congratulations to National Champions Lynchburg!  A hard fought win in a classic championship game!  Both sides should be proud of their effort!
Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: Ocean 1 on December 07, 2014, 10:58:40 AM
Congratulations to both Lynchburg and Williams for a wonderful game...as intense as any match-up this season where both sides left it all on the field.

Should be interesting to see how the two teams evolve, grow and perform next season. Lynchburg losing its top two offensive leaders and Williams intact with their offensive firepower but needing to fill some holes defensively.

Maybe this match-up becomes an instant classic (as the NCAA pre-game poll reported) and we see both teams return to the Championship match next season.

That would be a special treat!

Title: Re: 2014 NCAA Tournament
Post by: 2xfaux on December 16, 2014, 03:36:49 PM
It was a very good game.  If both teams return to the final next year I think that would be the first time that has happened.  Obviously teams have repeated as champions but for the magic to work for two teams would be very special.  We shall see.

"Upon further review" Wheaton and Messiah both played in the final in 2007 and 2008 and I was actually there for both games??  Another brain fart for this old fan.