1. Williams .637
2. Tufts .623
3. Brandeis .619
4. Wesleyan .618
5. Rochester .609
6. Babson .604
7. Loras .602
8. Centre .601
9. Chicago .599
10. Camden .597
Eight schools over .600 seems a bit low. I would imagine that its due to the amount of parity nationwide, thus decreasing OWP and OOWP, but that's just a guess. I'd be curious to see how many schools per year, historically speaking, have ended the third RR with .600 or better. I would guess 10-15.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:03:14 PM
1. Williams .637
2. Tufts .623
3. Brandeis .619
4. Wesleyan .618
5. Rochester .609
6. Babson .604
7. Loras .602
8. Centre .601
9. Chicago .599
10. Camden .597
That SOS just may propel the Jumbos into the tourney...... Kudos to all those teams playing tough schedules!
Quote from: Brother Flounder on November 04, 2015, 04:40:12 PM
That SOS just may propel the Jumbos into the tourney...... Kudos to all those teams playing tough schedules!
I think Tufts is safe (unless crazy upsets galore this weekend.) They're fifth in NE, they were likely helped by Brandeis - a New England team who has traditionally needed an at-large to get in - getting the AQ for the UAA, and assuming that MIT and Middlebury win this weekend they'll be fine even with Amherst getting a Pool C.
The Jumbos are 4-3-1 RvR. I've thought they've been safe all along...
Teams that play cupcakes all year shouldn't get dessert, albeit the NCAA Tournament.
With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs. Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons. I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:51:40 PM
With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs. Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons. I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.
Just out of curiosity, what do you think a safe starting point is most years versus this one?
Agree with your statement about the parity and blemishes - MIT is probably the only exception to that (.529), as they're third in NE and No. 17 in the NSCAA D3 poll, but I say they win the NEWMAC pretty easily and probably even host the first two rounds.
I think .580 is the magic number. Mr.Right would know better...
From 2014 SOS Forum:
Chicago 646
Brandeis 638
North Central 630
Rochester 618
Babson 612
Haverford 611
Emory 605
Case Western 603
Wheaton (Ill.) 603
York (Pa.) 602
Swarthmore 602
Carthage 599
Quote from: blooter442 on November 04, 2015, 04:56:04 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:51:40 PM
With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs. Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons. I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.
Just out of curiosity, what do you think a safe starting point is most years versus this one?
Agree with your statement about the parity and blemishes - MIT is probably the only exception to that (.529), as they're third in NE and No. 17 in the NSCAA D3 poll, but I say they win the NEWMAC pretty easily and probably even host the first two rounds.
Etown at .525 would be riding the bubble if they don't win the Landmark but same boat as MIT.
2014 Pool C (SOS) and 3rd Regional Ranking. SOS avg was .577; .581 with the outlier of Texas-Dallas .516 removed.
Central
4. North Park .597
6. Dominican .545
East
3. Cortland St .547
4. Rochester .627
5. Brockport St .568
Great Lakes
3. OWU .556
Mid-Atlantic
2. F&M .573
4. Dickinson .604
New England
1. Brandeis .633
2. Wheaton .597
3. Coast Guard .580
4. Amherst .587
6. Tufts .576
North
1. Loras .575
South Atlantic
1. Emory .603
2. Salisbury .556
3. Rut-Newark .557
West
3. Texas-Dallas .516
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:03:14 PM
1. Williams .637
2. Tufts .623
3. Brandeis .619
4. Wesleyan .618
5. Rochester .609
6. Babson .604
7. Loras .602
8. Centre .601
9. Chicago .599
10. Camden .597
Well we knew in August both Tufts and Williams would have very good SOS. Tufts will benefit and Williams will not. That really drives me crazy as with that high a SOS they could have gotten in with 9 wins. Coulda , Woulda , F'd it.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 04, 2015, 08:32:38 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:03:14 PM
1. Williams .637
2. Tufts .623
3. Brandeis .619
4. Wesleyan .618
5. Rochester .609
6. Babson .604
7. Loras .602
8. Centre .601
9. Chicago .599
10. Camden .597
Well we knew in August both Tufts and Williams would have very good SOS. Tufts will benefit and Williams will not. That really drives me crazy as with that high a SOS they could have gotten in with 9 wins. Coulda , Woulda , F'd it.
Hang in there RIGHT!
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:51:40 PM
With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs. Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons. I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.
It has always been around .550. That is why I am not convinced even with 3 ranked wins Kenyon is a LOCK at .510 or ETOWN at .520. MIT at .540 is bare bones.
I mean .510 used to mean AQ or Bust. That Great Lakes region MIGHT want to glance over to the Central and North regions that have over inflated SOS and RvR but better resumes. I think Monday will be interesting
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 05:27:09 PM
2014 Pool C (SOS) and 3rd Regional Ranking. SOS avg was .577; .581 with the outlier of Texas-Dallas .516 removed.
Central
4. North Park .597
6. Dominican .545
East
3. Cortland St .547
4. Rochester .627
5. Brockport St .568
Great Lakes
3. OWU .556
Mid-Atlantic
2. F&M .573
4. Dickinson .604
New England
1. Brandeis .633
2. Wheaton .597
3. Coast Guard .580
4. Amherst .587
6. Tufts .576
North
1. Loras .575
South Atlantic
1. Emory .603
2. Salisbury .556
3. Rut-Newark .557
West
3. Texas-Dallas .516
This is by far the most interesting and informative item I have read all night. Seriously. Someone should have the task of re-posting this everytime one of these knuckleheads flies loose about RvR and SOS.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 04, 2015, 08:54:12 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 04:51:40 PM
With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs. Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons. I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.
It has always been around .550. That is why I am not convinced even with 3 ranked wins Kenyon is a LOCK at .510 or ETOWN at .520. MIT at .540 is bare bones.
I mean .510 used to mean AQ or Bust. That Great Lakes region MIGHT want to glance over to the Central and North regions that have over inflated SOS and RvR but better resumes. I think Monday will be interesting
Except Kenyon has 5 ranked wins now....5-1. You really think a 16-1 team with 5 ranked wins that won the regular season NCAC shouldn't get a bid?
Not with a .510 SOS. NEVER.
If you can have overly inflated SoS's then makes sense that you also can have overly deflated ones too that a cmte can have room to consider.
Yes we all know the system sucks but if they are using this system and they are doing it quantitatively then .510 cannot get in. I am not picking on kenyon I would be saying this about any team with that type of SOS
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 04, 2015, 09:24:54 PM
Yes we all know the system sucks but if they are using this system and they are doing it quantitatively then .510 cannot get in. I am not picking on kenyon I would be saying this about any team with that type of SOS
No, I'm following your thinking. It's just a very odd situation. Are they potentially hosting through 2 weekends, or are they out entirely? That's a pretty big gulf. I'm gonna guess (of course) that their winning % and RvR will get them in if they don't win Saturday. The other thing is that they have head-to-head wins over most of the other ranked teams in the GL region, including CMU.
The last few years we've seen at least one team get into the tournament with a really bad SOS number, so it's been done before:
2014: Texas-Dallas, 13-4-3, 1-0-0 RvR, 0.516 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2013: Salisbury, 16-3-0, 2-2-0 RvR, 0.521 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2012: Christopher Newport, 15-3-2, 3-1-1 RvR, 0.497 SOS, 4th in final regional ranking.
2011: Baldwin-Wallace, 16-4-0, 3-1-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2015 Kenyon, if they lose to OWU, would check in at 16-2-0, 5-2-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS. I think the huge number of ranked wins, plus DePauw and Thomas More (and potentially CMU) losing this week, will be more than enough. I do, however, think there's a big question whether Kenyon would host if they lose on Saturday.
**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw. And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough. I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on November 04, 2015, 09:49:30 PM
The last few years we've seen at least one team get into the tournament with a really bad SOS number, so it's been done before:
2014: Texas-Dallas, 13-4-3, 1-0-0 RvR, 0.516 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2013: Salisbury, 16-3-0, 2-2-0 RvR, 0.521 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2012: Christopher Newport, 15-3-2, 3-1-1 RvR, 0.497 SOS, 4th in final regional ranking.
2011: Baldwin-Wallace, 16-4-0, 3-1-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2015 Kenyon, if they lose to OWU, would check in at 16-2-0, 5-2-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS. I think the huge number of ranked wins, plus DePauw and Thomas More (and potentially CMU) losing this week, will be more than enough. I do, however, think there's a big question whether Kenyon would host if they lose on Saturday.
**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw. And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough. I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.
Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday. And the field has not been in great shape anyway. Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games? I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on November 04, 2015, 09:49:30 PM
**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw. And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough. I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.
I would think DPU might drop some based on tonight. Another RvR loss, 7 blemishes to what would be 2 for Kenyon, etc. And GL had 2 Pool Cs just from the NCAC alone 2 years ago, and CMU made the tourney also (although I can't recall if CMU had the UAA AQ....maybe they did).
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 04, 2015, 09:58:19 PM
Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday. And the field has not been in great shape anyway. Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games? I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.
Using Flying Weasel's rough method, I have it at 0.519. So I wouldn't worry about it dropping, but wouldn't expect much of a boost.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on November 04, 2015, 10:04:21 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 04, 2015, 09:58:19 PM
Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday. And the field has not been in great shape anyway. Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games? I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.
Using Flying Weasel's rough method, I have it at 0.519. So I wouldn't worry about it dropping, but wouldn't expect much of a boost.
Even .519 is better than .510 ;)
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 04, 2015, 10:03:29 PM
...and CMU made the tourney also (although I can't recall if CMU had the UAA AQ....maybe they did).
Carnegie got a Pool C in 2013.
2012 was the crazy year they got the AQ in the improbable four-way tie for the UAA title...and they had to go to the second tie breaker to decide who would get the AQ (1st = record vs. other 1st place teams - Brandeis and Carnegie were both 2-1; 2nd = head-to-head matchup, which Carnegie won.)
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 04, 2015, 08:58:00 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 05:27:09 PM
2014 Pool C (SOS) and 3rd Regional Ranking. SOS avg was .577; .581 with the outlier of Texas-Dallas .516 removed.
Central RvR
4. North Park .597 4-3-0
6. Dominican .545 1-3-1
East
3. Cortland St .547 2-1-1
4. Rochester .627 3-2-1 (8-5-3 overall record)
5. Brockport St .568 1-2-2
Great Lakes
3. OWU .556 2-2-2
Mid-Atlantic
2. F&M .573 4-0-1
4. Dickinson .604 3-3-1
New England
1. Brandeis .633 7-2-0
2. Wheaton .597 2-1-1
3. Coast Guard .580 2-0-2
4. Amherst .587 1-0-2
6. Tufts .576 1-1-2
North
1. Loras .575 5-0-1
South Atlantic
1. Emory .603 5-2-1
2. Salisbury .556 0-0-3
3. Rut-Newark .557 2-2-0
West
3. Texas-Dallas .516 1-0-0
This is by far the most interesting and informative item I have read all night. Seriously. Someone should have the task of re-posting this everytime one of these knuckleheads flies loose about RvR and SOS.
Updated with RvR