NCAC Preseason Poll:
http://www.northcoast.org/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/PreseasonPoll (http://www.northcoast.org/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/PreseasonPoll)
1) Kenyon (8)
2) OWU (1)
3) DePauw (1)
4) Oberlin
5) Denison
6) Wabash
7) Allegheny
8) Hiram
9) Wooster
10) Wittenberg
Hoping that the Little Giants at least make it into the top half of the standings.
http://www.oac.org/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/2016_Soccer_poll.pdf
OAC top 6 - these are the team that make the post season tournament:
1. Ohio Northern 51 (6)
2. John Carroll 47 (4)
3. Capital 40
4. Marietta 18
5. Heidelberg 14
6. Baldwin Wallace 13
Scrimmages: Capital v Ohio Domincan - 2-2 on Saturday 8/20. Last night Baldwin Wallace beat Denison 4-0 - I watched some of the video - Dension very sloppy with the ball and BW very aggressive getting to the ball. Capital plays at Oberlin tonight - 14 freshman who played extremely well in the ODU scrimmage - some could vie for starting positions - and this team returns 21 lettermen.
Heidelberg lost 8 of the 14 freshman from last year due to the coaching change I would expect. We have a friend on the team -a senior - this is 3 coaches in 4 years for him. This year's team totals 26 players - 7seniors, 3 juniors, 6 sophomores and 10 freshman. I wonder how Marietta will perform losing their key scorer Reasoner (15 goals, 33 pts). They both have their work cut out for them if they want to make the top 6.
I was impressed with Mount Union last year and they continue to build with young, exciting payers. I think they make the top 6. Otterbein has added a couple freshman with strong club credentials - and they have missed the post season tourney by a hair the last two years. They easily could contend for a top 6 finish.
Wednesday scrimmage - Capital 1-0 at Oberlin - played 3 30 minute periods . Oberlin had three high quality chances saved - both teams evenly matched.
Thursday Otterbein and Denison 1-1. Something's off with Denison right now - Otterbein has added two freshman at D and DM that provide more stability in the back 8 - losing Rivas and replacing his goals is a question mark
Sat - John Carroll 2-1 over the newly reinstituted Ashland University program.
Capital 1-0 over Case Western - again a fairly evenly matched game - may not get the last 30 in due to storms - Case may struggle early on to replace the leadership of Cvenko and other graduates
OWU beat Urbana (DII, 2015 Sweet Sixteen Team) 2-0 and Wilmington 4-0 in preseason. Not much to take from either game. Hope and Calvin visit this weekend and should provide better tests.
For what it's worth, we heard from a player in the Otterbein-Denison scrimmage that Denison won 3-1, though we didn't see the match.
Quote from: midwest on August 30, 2016, 03:03:51 PM
For what it's worth, we heard from a player in the Otterbein-Denison scrimmage that Denison won 3-1, though we didn't see the match.
I was there - saw one goal by Denison in the first half. Left midway through second half - I saw a video of Otterbein's goal off a corner late in the second half.
CWRU has got to have one of the top 2-3 toughest schedules in the country. Too bad they faded at the end of last year and had SoS issues, as I don't see much reason for optimism this season.
-- at Thomas More, Ohio Northern, John Carroll, Lycoming, Oberlin, and North Park
-- DePauw and Kenyon at home
-- the UAA schedule
Getting to more than 6 or so wins could be a challenge, and that's assuming Ws versus Mt. Union, Baldwin-Wallace, Hiram. Of course if they do really well they should be in good shape for Pool C.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on August 30, 2016, 11:28:45 AM
OWU beat Urbana (DII, 2015 Sweet Sixteen Team) 2-0 and Wilmington 4-0 in preseason. Not much to take from either game. Hope and Calvin visit this weekend and should provide better tests.
Urbana plays at Ohio Dominican tomorrow night - 7pm. Rumor is they may use a player from the United States . . .
QuoteI wonder how Marietta will perform losing their key scorer Reasoner (15 goals, 33 pts). They both have their work cut out for them if they want to make the top 6.
Well we don't have to "wonder" any further as Reasoner is returning as a 5th year senior!
Otterbein vs Kenyon at 3:30; Thomas More vs Denison at 7 - and my wife asks what am I doing today. She'll never learn . . .
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 01, 2016, 06:52:04 AM
QuoteI wonder how Marietta will perform losing their key scorer Reasoner (15 goals, 33 pts). They both have their work cut out for them if they want to make the top 6.
Otterbein vs Kenyon at 3:30; Thomas More vs Denison at 7 - and my wife asks what am I doing today. She'll never learn . . .
Game summaries and clinical observations to follow, correct?
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 01, 2016, 07:59:01 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 01, 2016, 06:52:04 AM
QuoteI wonder how Marietta will perform losing their key scorer Reasoner (15 goals, 33 pts). They both have their work cut out for them if they want to make the top 6.
Otterbein vs Kenyon at 3:30; Thomas More vs Denison at 7 - and my wife asks what am I doing today. She'll never learn . . .
Game summaries and clinical observations to follow, correct?
Thomas More at Denison will be at 6:30 . . . in case that affects your evening schedule!
Quote from: midwest on September 01, 2016, 09:18:37 AM
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 01, 2016, 07:59:01 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 01, 2016, 06:52:04 AM
QuoteI wonder how Marietta will perform losing their key scorer Reasoner (15 goals, 33 pts). They both have their work cut out for them if they want to make the top 6.
Otterbein vs Kenyon at 3:30; Thomas More vs Denison at 7 - and my wife asks what am I doing today. She'll never learn . . .
Game summaries and clinical observations to follow, correct?
Thomas More at Denison will be at 6:30 . . . in case that affects your evening schedule!
NCAC - of course! And thanks for the head's up on the schedule change, Midwest. It does effect the pregame beverage plan I had for Brews Cafe . . .
I don't think any of the 4 teams I saw yesterday will be declaring the recordings of their games yesterday as Instant Classics - but you have to start the season somewhere.
Kenyon played a man up for 60 minutes and only got one goal in that time. The first team tried to get their forwards behind Otterbein's flat back line and succeeded after a few OS calls. #12 was taken down near the 6, about to walk the ball into an empty net when he was taken down. Tough start to that freshman's career but he should have not even challenged at that point. Kenyon's subs showed more patience to work the ball from side to side and keep possession - they played the latter part of the first half and most of the second, with starters returning to the side with 25-20 minutes left.
They lined up 4-3-3 but quite honestly they played like a 3-1-2-5! At times - their goal kicks - you saw the two wing backs as high as the 3 forwards. They definitely pushed the attack from the start. I think it will take some time to replace their midfielders from last year on offense - defensively the 3,4 guys in the middle owned that space.
Otterbein started a freshman keeper who did very well! Nothing he could do on either goal. Otterbein's back line also did well - but defense is a team responsibility and they didn't get much help from their midfield. They were missing a key senior starter in midfield - he really is a game changer when in the squad.
Denison - Thomas More was truly a game of two halves. I was still crossing the parking lot when TM scored in the 4th minute. TM played with high energy the first half - almost zero in the second. They pressed high, their midfield attacked the ball and won it back regularly. Denison struggled to link together three passes and when they got possession they sent the ball long to no one (on their team - TM was quite happy for the return of the ball) or they over dribbled and eventually lost it.
TM's #11 freshman left wing is going to fun to watch. 6' 2", fast, strong, crafty feet - assisted on the second goal - blew by his defender on the by-line and pass into the 6 for a tap in. 4-2-3-1 - #19 started well and directed the attack when he got on the ball. He faded a lot in the second half - not getting nearly the same playing time. Good news for TM - they have a freshman #6 that plays the same position - small but very, very good with the ball. He played the bulk of the second half.
And then the second half started. Denison came out with amazing energy and scored 2 goals in four minutes. Just before they scored the first there was a loose ball in the 6 that somehow didn't go in. First goal - couldn't tell if the misplay by the TM defender went directly in or was touched by a Denison player - and the second - less than a minute later - was off a PK - foul barely in the area and just foolish to have been committed.
Denison linked up much better - more composure and patience with the ball. Honestly, the energy level of TM had a lot to do with it - they looked tired, their lines were stretched and support limited when they went on counters. Denison made one significant change in the second half, starting 6' 6" freshman forward who is the epitome of an old English target. Outlet balls went to him and he did excellently to hold the ball and allow midfielders to transition up. Hell - even when they had throw-ins it went to him. A solid kid - and not bad speed. Played almost the entire second half - only sub out was due to blood on his jersey. But his presence allowed #5 to get in the ball more - key assist leader for Denison last year - and Denison used a lot of big switches to stretch the field east and west.
Looked away when the OT goal was scored but Denison's keeper created several scary moments throughout the game. Too aggressive leaving the 6 and NOT making contact with the ball - I counted 4 times!
At OWU today - absolutely glorious fall conditions today
OWU is expecting a record-sized crowd today for their game against Hope. The program will be honoring Luke Gabbert, a freshman who tragically died during the offseason. If you plan on attending, I'd show up early. Kickoff is scheduled for 7, with the ceremony at 6:45.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 02, 2016, 08:56:00 AM
OWU is expecting a record-sized crowd today for their game against Hope. The program will be honoring Luke Gabbert, a freshman who tragically died during the offseason. If you plan on attending, I'd show up early. Kickoff is scheduled for 7, with the ceremony at 6:45.
Nice series of games coming up with Calvin playing Capital and Hope at OWU today, and the reverse tomorrow.
Calvin was picked to finish first in the MIAA, and they were ranked 5th nationally at the end of last year. However, Calvin graduated a number of key players including an All America defender and forward and a keeper who set an NCAA-D3 record last year for most shutouts in a season and has gone down under to play pro soccer. Midfield should still be strong.
Hope is picked to finish fourth in the MIAA.
How do Capital and OWU look this year?
Quote from: Dark Knight on September 02, 2016, 10:54:45 AM
How do Capital and OWU look this year?
Capital should be better than the last few years. They finished 0.500 last year but got hot at the end of the season and went 7-1-1 in conference. They return a bunch of guys and brought in a big recruiting class. They've managed to surprise teams in the past at this opening-season tournament because visiting schools are often focused on OWU.
OWU will be talented but young, as they lost an important senior class. OWU brought in a huge and very good recruiting class, but it'll take some time to get everyone on the same page. It'll be an interesting weekend to see how they cope. Tonight's game will be emotional, then they get Calvin after losing to them to end 2015. If I were guessing I'd say OWU will be inconsistent early on - in play if not in results - but could be very, very good by the end of the season.
Capital returns the largest group of letterman in recent years and brings in a very talented group of freshmen. They played 3 scrimmages against Ohio Dominican, at Oberlin and Case - only conceded 2 goals in the ODU draw. The team seems to be gelling earlier than last season, and the players seem to share a common playing style - which is interesting since about half are new players.
Might see two freshman start - several could get playing time today. For much of the preseason 3+ starters did not play - not sure of their status today - but the new players stepped in nicely.
Cap-Calvin: as with Thursday's matches - not a thing of real beauty. Capital made too many mistakes - equally shared by all players - against a team that thrives on gifts. Calvin's first goal was scored off a header by a player lying flat on his back; second an OG when a defender jutted his butt back to block a cross; third was when Vegter was allowed to jog - untouched - for 40 yds and flick on a header from over 10 yds away - keeper too aggressive coming off his line.
Calvin has moved Vetger into center back this year - that pairing did well. Their midfield won most of the battles and held possession much, much better than Capital. # 11 picked up right where he left off last season as their assist leader - he's so adept with either foot that as a defender you cannot overplay him either way. They turned the corner on the by-line at least 6 times - seemed like 100. They didn't send crosses in from 18-15 yards out but they get to the byline and cross - looks more like a hockey attack. Second goal was exactly that: shoot the puck into a crowd in front of the net - good things happen.
I only stayed for 30 minutes in the second game. Ryan was correct - packed house for the Gabbert memorial. Really a heavy moment - Capital has three or four players that played HS or club with him - two were visibly shaken and crying during the ceremony.
Ryan can provide the synopsis on the second game. But as he said in an earlier post: Capital has played in this tournament 4 of the last 5 years and benefitted on the second day after the opponent has played OWU. Double OT, finishing late, and to turn around and play the early game on Saturday (4:30pm) is asking a lot from the Hope players.
Thanks for the recaps. The streaming video was more like a slide show than actual video, so it's good to hear a report from on site!
Capital - Hope: Capital really shook up the line up, starting 4 freshmen - only one who started against Calvin. They controlled the match from start to finish - only conceded two shots on goal - none in the second half. Freshman forward Trevor Collins has scored or assisted on all three goals this year. Interesting. Hope was just flat - as expected. Jay Martin was watching a bit of the second half with other coaches and was overhead saying: "THIS isn't the team we played yesterday!" I agree.
Watched first half of the OWU-Calvin game. Provided just a few notes to NCAC's comment in the National thread.
Marietta at Denison - 2pm. Denison's grass field is being complete resodded, so this one will mostly like be on turf again.
Glad to see my impressions last night mirrored Dr. Martin's post-game comments. Those OWU frosh obviously have played in big games before and are very confident that they belong. I envy the excitement they and their parents must be experiencing as they embark on their careers at a program with historical significance and very high expectations. The parents will be stunned by how fast the 4 years go by.
Disappointed and a little surprised to see Oberlin get shellacked by Ohio Northern.
Curious to see how CWRU @ Thomas More plays out today.
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 04, 2016, 10:45:14 AM
Glad to see my impressions last night mirrored Dr. Martin's post-game comments. Those OWU frosh obviously have played in big games before and are very confident that they belong. I envy the excitement they and their parents must be experiencing as they embark on their careers at a program with historical significance and very high expectations. The parents will be stunned by how fast the 4 years go by.
Disappointed and a little surprised to see Oberlin get shellacked by Ohio Northern.
Curious to see how CWRU @ Thomas More plays out today.
Capital scrimmaged Oberlin a couple weeks ago - Capital "won" 1-0 - which doesn't mean anything as both coaches played three different teams over three 30 minute sessions. First period Oberlin played very well and was unlucky not to have scored twice. They spread the field east-west - wingers on each touchline - and they do a nice job swinging the ball and changing field with long crosses. Where they were vulnerable is down the middle - being stretched so wide - a counter attack by a speedy forward could lead to breakaways. And they played a high line - get the trap wrong and another breakaway (that's how Cap scored). Have to see a replay of the goals - but ONU has all the main pieces returning and should finish first or second in the OAC.
Agree on the Case-TM game - saw both already this season - if TM puts together a full 90 minute effort they will be tough to beat.
Trivia note: the two goal scorers for OWU and one from Capital went to the same HS - Olentangy Liberty. State champions a couple years ago - also made a final and lost. It is interesting to see how much of OWU's team comes from Ohio - compared to when I played against them in the 70's.
Marietta at Denison: second straight OT affair at Denison - this time they come out on top 2-1 (interestingly this game was a 2-1 OT win for Denison last year). Marietta started 3 freshman - all did very well - two in particular - I expect will be significant to Marietta's success. They are a physical team - blue collar - tackle hard but not dirty. They scored first as their player found a spot on the top of the 18, in between 2 defenders, received the ball, pushed it ahead one step and put a hard shot inside the near post.
Denison ties it off a nice free kick - Marietta's keeper got a slight touch on it, but it was curling away - upper 90 - well struck and well placed. OT winner was a screamer from just outside the 18 - near post upper 90. #19 from Denison given plenty of space without a challenge to get off a clean shot.
There are fundamental issues with Denison's defending, marking and decision making in their defensive third. Dribbling when they shouldn't, making more difficult plays when wide open options exist. Perhaps more than one team this weekend can describe what they have as "a group of talented players who are not yet playing like a team" - Denison might be in that category.
Recap of last weekend @ OWU:
Calvin 4 - Capital 1
Already covered, but not quite as lopsided as the score would indicate. Calvin controlled the opening exchanges and got on the board twice, but as soon as they subbed Capital took control and brought it back to 2-1. Capital gave up a soft goal early in the second half and that was it.
OWU 2 - Hope 1 (2OT)
Luke Gabbert, a freshman last year, died in the offseason, and the program retired his number in an emotional ceremony prior to kickoff. I'm sure it affected the team, as they played a little tight and distracted early on. The first half was boring - Hope missed a breakaway after OWU's defense fell asleep and OWU almost scored on a volley, but that was it. OWU took control in the second half and went up 1-0 on a cross and header. Hope had one sustained period of pressure and made it pay off, getting a cross/shot that the GK could only parry into the path of a Hope player. OWU had numerous chances to finish the game in regulation but were forced to go to overtime. Eventually pulled off the game winner early in the second overtime. Hope was exhausted, to the point where centerbacks were cramping up (and you don't run much in that position). Not pretty, but a nice win in front of around 2000 fans.
Capital 2 - Hope 0
I alluded to this before the weekend, but teams that play OWU on Friday often lay an egg on Saturday. (Back in 2011, Messiah beat OWU 2-1 in a matchup of probably the best two teams in the country, then the Falcons turned around and tied a terrible Hiram team the next afternoon). However that shouldn't take anything away from Capital, who was better than advertised over the course of the weekend. They controlled the game and made it count in the second half with two goals. Cap has a freshman forward (#14) who is by far the fastest player I've seen this year. He had a hand in all three goals over the weekend (1G, 2A) and is going to cause major problems for teams. I'd expect Capital to improve on last season overall and push Ohio Northern for the OAC title. As for Hope, I think they'll do better than last year's 0.500, but they just had nothing left in the tank. They only had about 18 hours from the end of the OWU game to kickoff, used few subs on Friday, and lost an overtime game that was physically and mentally exhausting. I'd guess they finish 2nd or 3rd in the MIAA, but probably no NCAA bid unless they win the conference tournament.
OWU 2 - Calvin 1
Weird game. As NCAC mentioned, not much between the two teams or in the game. The first half was a snooze fest, as Calvin controlled the territory and much of the possession but created very little. Calvin's style is to get the ball to their wingers, try to get by the defender and play passes/crosses across the box, but OWU's outside backs were very good and didn't let much get in. Most of Calvin's crosses were from deep and not targeted at someone - as opposed to their normal style which is much more of a targeted cut-back - making it easy for the OWU defense to clear. OWU had major issues in the first half holding the ball up and keeping possession, and Calvin pressed and defended well.
OWU was better in the second half and the possession was closer to even until OWU scored on a free kick. Identical to the one Calvin scored on Cap the day before: a ball served in from midfield, the GK commits but doesn't get there and a centerback loops a header over his head into an empty net. Soft goal, but it changed the complexion of the game. OWU controlled the next period, finally getting the ball on the ground and possessing. Got the second goal off a PK. Clear handball after a dangerous ball into the box, but OWU probably wasn't going to score on it, so a bit unlucky. Calvin put some pressure on late but aside from one free kick still failed to create much going forward. Calvin scored with one second left on a gorgeous volley.
I was a bit underwhelmed with Calvin. They aren't as tight in the back and their attacking players, aside from Stark, were ineffective. They also miss having Vegter on the outside, as they got very little from their outside backs. Still, it's a talented team that is replacing major pieces and will need time to gel. Still the team to beat in the MIAA, I'd expect something like 17-3 or 16-4 and an easy NCAA bid.
OWU is just young and inexperienced. They start 5 seniors, but none of those guys has had to carry the load before. Beyond that, the Bishops played only 3 juniors and 2 sophomores over the weekend, and three of them were getting substantial minutes for the first time. OWU is starting 3 freshmen and using 6+ off the bench, so over half the guys seeing meaningful minutes are freshmen. As someone mentioned, there were times against Hope and Calvin when OWU had 9 new players on the field, including a front six of five freshmen and a sophomore.
The kids can play - three of the four goals and all 3 assists came from freshmen - but they're adjusting to the speed/physicality of the college game. As a fan/alum, the most encouraging thing was getting wins, because OWU will improve as much as any team in the country over the season as the freshmen and new players gain experience. This weekend, especially the win over Calvin, will also boost the NCAA resume. There's a lot to work on, but the pieces are there.
Also, below is a link to the OWU highlights from the weekend, including the ceremony honoring Luke Gabbert:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IyG9eyc9yk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IyG9eyc9yk)
Great synopsis, Ryan.
Saw about a half each of ONU v Olivet and Grove City v Behrend yesterday. ONU must have a death wish, playing 4 games in 5 days this week. Regardless of power ratings - and yes, the teams they are playing aren't the highest rated - that is a heck of test to put your boys through. Weather is going to be very iffy the next four days - could be cancelations or storm delays through Saturday's schedule. But ONU is just pretty to watch play: disciplined, calm on the ball, two-touch, players checking back and moving all the time - NO weak links on the field. At times they lost patience as Olivet just sat in (very much like T&T did to the US last night) - but even when they strectched the defense with more direct play - it was to the wings and worked more than not. The few moments Olivet was able to gain possession they were dispossessed almost immediately. With so many upper classemen starting - it's difficult to see how they lose more than 2 games. That being said - the game on Sept 14 at OWU will show what they can do against stiffer competition.
Grove City also works the ball from the back to the checking middies,who get the ball wide - and off they go. Their home field played like a cow pasture - almost impossile to send a ball along the ground without it popping up. A 1-0 game at half - I didn't see the second - but GC controlled a better part of possession, but Behrend was able to get behind their wing backs and get a few corners. GC hasn't conceded this year in three games - but that 3 home games. The next three - at Hiram, Allegheny and Oberlin - are going to show us how seriously they should be taken as a challenger to Thomas More.
Wabash loses to Earlham. Not a good sign for the Little Giants.
Interesting weekend game is Oberlin at Geneva. I'm thinking Geneva.
Update: Geneva loses in OT to Franciscan, giving up 4 goals....to Franciscan.
Odd stat in OWU-Otterbein game. OWU up 1-0 but after 68 minutes OWU has yet to commit a single foul (compared to 12 by Otterbein).
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 07, 2016, 07:15:01 PM
Wabash loses to Earlham. Not a good sign for the Little Giants.
Interesting weekend game is Oberlin at Geneva. I'm thinking Geneva.
Update: Geneva loses in OT to Franciscan, giving up 4 goals....to Franciscan.
Watched the first half - Wabash was non-existent. Earlham hit the crossbar early in the half - had the better of play - not dominant but more effective than Wabash. I was not expecting such a poor showing - of course I was expecting to watch Chicago at Knox but Mother Nature wouldn't cooperate.
ONU almost pays the price for their insane schedule - after a late own goal they rebound to get the game winner.
OWU beat Otterbein 2-0 in another disjointed game. Even first half, and at times Otterbein carried the play, but they couldn't put together a final ball or take advantage of good shooting opportunities. OWU got the first goal on a nice strike (by another freshman) that caught the goalie off his line and went in over his head. Otterbein was dead tired in the second half and OWU took complete control. Much better combination play and eventually got a second goal off a cross that was deflected and fell right to Baum's feet. W&L is going to be a good game on Saturday.
Thursdays are tough with such a thin slate of games.
Grove City gets a 3-2 road win at Hiram. Stats basically even although GC had a 3-1 lead.
Grove City starts season at 4-0, scoring 14 and allowing only 2.
Wow Centre beats Thomas More 3-0 and out shoots them 18-4. Did anyone see this game? Centre now quietly 4-0. Looked at Centre's other results but none were nearly as impressive. They actually were outshot 16-14 at home in their 3-2 win vs Heidelberg. Shocking results today for sure.
Meanwhile Grove City moves to 5-0 with a 3-0 win over Allegheny and now holds the best record in the PAC.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on September 11, 2016, 01:44:23 AM
Meanwhile Grove City moves to 5-0 with a 3-0 win over Allegheny and now holds the best record in the PAC.
I've got Grove City on my teams to watch list for Great Lakes but maybe a little context is in order. Opponents thus far have a 6-11-2 record against mostly mediocre to weak competition. Let's see how they do in the next 3 tilts -- away at Oberlin and Heidelberg and home with CMU -- before we get too far ahead of ourselves. The Wolverines will turn some heads if they can go 3-0 or 2-0-1 over that span. Unfortunately, GC's conference showdown with TMC is on the road on 10/20. Hard to see the conference getting more than the AQ, unless it's like a TMC last year with a much tougher out of conference schedule.
Got to see Wooster and Washington & Lee yesterday, Capital and Wittenberg. From what I've seen after two weeks - and I don't want to use the "Parity" word too soon - there are a lot of teams in the great lakes that are similarly built. With the exception of the Finlandia games at Otterbein and Capital (Finlandia a rebuilding program with 20? freshman - and every game but 2 or 3 on the road) this weekend every team was in the game until the end. In some games a bounce here and fortunate rebound there was the deciding variable.
Another observation: I don't think there are any super stand-out players on the teams I've seen. No POY candidates from this region. And that's not a bad thing as the sides are built with complementary players that seem to support one another. The weaknesses I observed in teams the past two years - these observations based mostly on NCAC and OAC programs - aren't as glaring, just as there aren't any players that - if they missed a game - would kill a team's chances to win. Talking with fans and parents at the games this year - all say similar things: "We have more depth this year", "There isn't that much of a drop-off when we sub".
RE: the Capital Wittenberg game last night - there were a few Wittenberg players who were benched that would have made the game closer. There are some issues within the team and I give full credit to the coach for addressing the situation.
As far as OAC vs NCAC - two match-ups Wednesday: ONU at OWU and Capital at Denison are unfortunately at the same time - otherwise I'd be at both! ONU has the best team in the region that I have seen - the best balance of offense and defense. They can be impatient with the ball at times, but they attack a lot like Calvin - getting deep and cutting across the by-line. After the poor game against Calvin, Capital has put together three nice games. I've seen Denison 3 times already and they seem inconsistent and/or play to the level of their competition (don't players hate hearing that from their coaches??). The 4th spot in the NCAC tournament is still up for grabs - I'd tip Denison and Oberlin for that spot - with Wooster and Wabash as just outside. But a bounce here and a rebound there . . .
Weekly press release from NCAC:
http://northcoast.org/sports/msoc/2016-17/releases/weeklyrelease-9-12-16
Muskingum provided good medicine for Amolo. A hat trick within a 10 minute span. 8-0 at half. Supposedly his goal against Frostburg and one today are highlight reel worthy.
As I think Domino mentioned before, the Lords are almost playing 4 up top with outside backs getting called for offsides. Not a lot of combination play through the midfield. A lot of possession but final balls coming from the back or on crosses from outside backs. Not sure what to make of that, although seems partly a function of the high press. Brown is doing some moving around in the midfield in terms of players which I like. Figure out now who really wants to play and who can also be effective and in what combinations.
Domino, btw, at least on video Roy Rike and Mavec at Kenyon look awful! Drought? Most central Ohio grass fields looking like that?
Oberlin and Grove City 1-1 at half.
Oberlin prevails 3-2.
And Wabash gets huge win at Rose-Hulman.
Capital gets out of Granville with 1-0 win over Denison.
After playing so well John Carroll suffers maybe a trap game or fatigue loss to PS-Bherend.
OWU-ONU ends 0-0. Probably a fair result. ONU should have been ahead but were hanging on at the end. ONU GK made another great save off Baum free kick late in 2nd OT. ONU would have been very disappointed if they had left Delaware with an L.
ONU-OWU was a tale of two halves. ONU pinned OWU in its own end in the first half and could (should) have been at least two goals clear. ONU had three shots from 6-8 yards out, and all three were hit right at OWU's keeper. Very good saves, especially one with his feet, but saves you expect your guy to make in big games. ONU's best chance was on a cutback in the second half that OWU's keeper pinned on the goal line with one hand. The shots at that point were something like 12-4 (5-1 on goal).
From that point, OWU took over. A large part was fatigue; ONU plays a 4-3-3 but keeps all three forwards high, which puts an enormous amount of pressure on its center midfielders and outside backs. Once they slowed down a bit, OWU had a ton of space to play through the middle. In addition, OWU's depth showed. Although both teams used the same number of substitutes, OWU doesn't really have a drop-off unless Baum goes off the field. As NCAC said, ONU's goalkeeper made the two best saves of the game. The first was a bullet header that he tipped wide, the second was a free kick that was settling in the upper 90 before he got to it.
Overall, encouraging signs for both teams. ONU could have been out of sight in the first half in by far its toughest game, and was able to hang on for the last 35 minutes despite OWU coming forward in waves. For OWU, another step in the maturation process, and the Bishops went toe-to-toe with the second-most talented team in the region (Kenyon being first). I'm also encouraged in that ONU doesn't have a ton of room to grow, as they're all upper classmen - one sophomore and one freshman saw limited time - and they went to Europe in preseason. OWU is not even close to the finished product and was right there.
Agree 100%, including the part about ONU having less upside room for growth (the only caveat being that #11 will be even better if and when he gets rid of the very unwieldy thing on his arm which no doubt impacts his balance and how aggressively he can cut and move). And I also agree that result is one that works for both teams. Once ONU didn't get a goal in the 1st half after so many very good chances it seemed clear that they would be fortunate to get out with a draw.
Saw the first half of Thomas More vs Heidelberg (0-0 - final TM 2-0) and the Denison -Capital game. I think I am ready to officially use "Parity" to describe the competition in Ohio this year - especially with respect to teams that will finish in the upper half of their conferences.
Heidelberg did very well in the first half - the game couldn't be more even in terms of possession and chances (maybe 1 for each side). The ball was up in the air too much for my liking - and the percentage completion rate for passes - both sides - was not great. Whenever Heidelberg got into the attacking third the insisted on going down the middle. They played from the back to the middies and into the final third better than TM - but refused to get the ball wide. Need to watch the second half to see how they gave up 2 goals.
Denison and Capital played as even a match as two teams could - look at the stats. It was a classic grind - the kinds of games you see in the NCAA playoffs: lots of battles between the D's - not a lot of open looks at goal. This is the 4th time I've seen Denison and the best they played as a team - midfield was great last night - no excessive dribbling - moved the ball quickly. I really do love their #7 defender - he plays his position so well - smart with the ball - great decisions, great leadership (could hear him all night).
Referee was spotty in this one - there was more holding going on than during a slow dance at a HS prom. But it is difficult to make a calls - I say this as a referee - when both attackers and defenders are grabbing each other at the same time. He just needed to be more consistent on the holds he called and those he didn't.
This was an important game for Capital as these are the games they lost in previous years. Last year's OT loss to Denison, regular time losses to Hiram and Transylvania for example. And starting 3 to 4 freshman since the Calvin game: these kids got to see the kind of game they will need to play against Thomas More, OWU, ONU and John Carroll.
Interesting fact about the OWU game on Sept 28: that will be OWU's first road game of the year and it will be on turf.
NCAC - add the fact that Denison's field is under repair for the entire year - being re-sodded. Could be the drought - but the patchiness of the damage looks more like insects (old Scott's employee speaking now . . .)
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 15, 2016, 10:13:57 AM
Interesting fact about the OWU game on Sept 28: that will be OWU's first road game of the year and it will be on turf.
NCAC - add the fact that Denison's field is under repair for the entire year - being re-sodded. Could be the drought - but the patchiness of the damage looks more like insects (old Scott's employee speaking now . . .)
"Feed your lawn...Feed it!"
I think playing on turf will be a factor Saturday for Kenyon @ TMC, and probably in TMC's favor. That said, still a game where Kenyon should prevail IF they are as good as some of us think they are supposed to be (and they think they are supposed to be.) Looking ahead, mid-week games at home can be tough in terms of really turning up and so the Centre game could be a real dogfight with the Lords vulnerable for an upset (more so IF they get by TMC, and less so if they lose to or draw with TMC).
Grove City moves to 6-1 with OT win over host Heidelberg.
Kenyon gets a solid road win at TMC, 1-0. Video was atrocious...like watching blobs in slow motion who would freeze playing on a field on the moon in a heavy fog. Seemed like Kenyon dominated possession probably without a lot of clean chances. Definitely had shot advantage and apparently TMC didn't get a shot on goal. Glassman get a red (couldn't tell if straight red or 2nd yellow) in 90th minute. Couldn't see what happened but guessing he lashed out after getting hacked in the corner trying to run out the clock. Everyone does that but some of the worst fouls seem to happen in those situations where the other team is frustrated and desperate to get possession.
Good win for undefeated Centre at DePauw, winning 3-2 in OT after DePauw rallied in regulation. Sets up good game in Gambier on Weds.
Weekly rankings should see Kenyon, ONU, CM and Grove City remain in the top 4 - no shame in GC's loss at Oberlin.
The next 5-7 are a toss up - but I think OWU, Transylvania, John Carroll and Thomas More will be in spots 5-8 - no particular order. John Carroll may suffer a bit for their loss at PSU-Behrend - but JC's SOS is 30th right now and they have yet to play at home this season - they have Carnegie Mellon and Case at home this week - some welcome home party, eh?
After that you have Hanover, Capital, DePauw and Oberlin - again no particular order. Capital's SOS not very strong - got weaker with Denison's loss at Wilmington yesterday. Oberlin should land on the list at 8 or 9 with a nice win versus GC.
If there are teams "pulling away" from the rest - it would be the first three. But there aren't any blow-out games when these teams play one another - all tight, midfield battles, organized defenses - all waiting for the one opportunity each team may get in a 90 (or 120) minute contest.
ONU gets a bit of a breather over the next two weeks after a rigorous schedule to start the year. Blessing and a curse - staying sharp against the softer part of their schedule can be challenging - but with all that upper class leadership I think they will not need the coach to "ride" them should the get sloppy.
John Carroll has a heck of a week with the two games mentioned. TM plays three times this week - a backyard contest against U of Cincy - a game most likely about getting future recruits from the Cincy area; then Transylvania and Capital - both of these at home.
DePauw gets two away games at Rose and Oberlin - Rose dropping three straight could make them a dangerous side - and they have Chicago and Transylvania after DePauw - could be a make or break week for them.
Transy only has the one game at TM this week - couple big games the week following at Centre and Rose - but what a "potential" luxury to have this one game to focus upon for the week.
OWU with one game next Sat against a struggling Denison - you just never know which Denison team will show up on game day.
Hanover should pick up 2 wins at home against Berea and Georgetown. Carnegie Mellon has an interesting week with three games - two away at John Carroll and Grove City represent the two strongest opponents they have faced all year.
We'll see how my parity assessment of the Great Lakes looks after this week.
I think Kenyon remains well above everyone else at the moment. The talent is unquestionably there and the only two Great Lakes teams that pushed Kenyon last year (DePauw and OWU) are still finding their feet. I'd probably have ONU, Carnegie Mellon, and OWU in the next group, in that order.
Grove City, for me, does not belong anywhere near the top of the Great Lakes until they beat someone of note. 6-1 is nice, but their schedule has been awful - outside of PSU-Behrend (not a exactly a heavyweight) the teams they've beaten have a combined record of 6-23-2. And Oberlin, while 5-1, got shelled by ONU (4-0) in their only other game of note. Grove City has a chance to make a statement this week with a game against Carnegie Mellon, but at the end of the day, it's most likely going to be AQ or bust for GC to make the tournament.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 18, 2016, 08:51:04 PM
I think Kenyon remains well above everyone else at the moment. The talent is unquestionably there and the only two Great Lakes teams that pushed Kenyon last year (DePauw and OWU) are still finding their feet. I'd probably have ONU, Carnegie Mellon, and OWU in the next group, in that order.
Grove City, for me, does not belong anywhere near the top of the Great Lakes until they beat someone of note. 6-1 is nice, but their schedule has been awful - outside of PSU-Behrend (not a exactly a heavyweight) the teams they've beaten have a combined record of 6-23-2. And Oberlin, while 5-1, got shelled by ONU (4-0) in their only other game of note. Grove City has a chance to make a statement this week with a game against Carnegie Mellon, but at the end of the day, it's most likely going to be AQ or bust for GC to make the tournament.
Not many of the ranked Great Lakes teams have really played tough schedules to date - Thomas More always does - and that surely helped last year when the lost the PRAC tournament. OWU, John Carroll, Case have had decent challenges early on (Case perhaps too many!) - CM and Grove City's schedules are about the same; other than Thomas More - Kenyon's schedule is equal to CM and Grove City.
What's most perplexing is trying to make sense of comparative scores - and for me it is about the teams I've seen play. A team Like Heidelberg - an very difficult schedule has them at 1-5 right now - but they haven't played poorly. I saw parts of the Kenyon game - they were in that till the end; first half of the Thomas More game they had equal if not better possession. What they haven't been able to do is put together a full 90 minutes and avoid the one or two mistakes that cost you games against strong competition.
And based on the way the teams have actually played - I have not seen anyone that has played well above anyone else. Of the top 15 teams - I'd say they are all capable and have the potential to finish in the top 8. As of today the best team I have seen play - game in, game out - is ONU.
Fair points, but the difference between Grove City and Kenyon/ONU/CMU/OWU is that those teams have done well so far this year and have a pedigree - all four made the tournament last year and they've consistently fielded NCAA-level teams. Grove City, on the other hand, finished third in a weak conference in 2015 and hasn't beaten anyone of note in years. That's not meant to be a put-down, and I have nothing against GC, but until they pick up a meaningful win I can't put them with that group, regardless of how good they've looked against bad competition.
The easy way for GC to change the perception is to schedule and beat good programs. John Carroll, who has been inching toward the top shelf in the region over the last few years, scheduled Brandeis, Wheaton (Ill.), CMU, and Case in the non-conference. Those type of games provide a chance to prove you belong.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 19, 2016, 11:53:45 AM
Fair points, but the difference between Grove City and Kenyon/ONU/CMU/OWU is that those teams have done well so far this year and have a pedigree - all four made the tournament last year and they've consistently fielded NCAA-level teams. Grove City, on the other hand, finished third in a weak conference in 2015 and hasn't beaten anyone of note in years. That's not meant to be a put-down, and I have nothing against GC, but until they pick up a meaningful win I can't put them with that group, regardless of how good they've looked against bad competition.
The easy way for GC to change the perception is to schedule and beat good programs. John Carroll, who has been inching toward the top shelf in the region over the last few years, scheduled Brandeis, Wheaton (Ill.), CMU, and Case in the non-conference. Those type of games provide a chance to prove you belong.
Ryan - I'm troubled by the use of the word "pedigree." We know this is a factor for coaches, voters and fans who may not get to see every team play and but add a "dash of history" to their opinion. But does history factor into power ratings and so-called objective measures of a team? And if so -why?
I watched Carnegie last night through the second goal. They are a good team - play similarly to many of the quality teams I've seen this year. Very good center back - cleans up well; strong. Midfield prevented Allegheny from connecting many passes and forced many turnovers - although Allegheny helped out a lot by making dozens of unforced turnovers last night (based on 60 minutes that I saw - Allegheny is in for a long season in the NCAC).
Through last night's game - Massey has CM and Grove City as follows:
Team RecordRat Pwr Off Def HFA SoS SSF EW EL
Carnegie 6-0 25 37 35 56 0.39 196 61 6.06 4.94
Grove City 6-1 63 81 55 128 0.52 200 253 7.61 2.39
CM - 17-3 (GF, GA) (9 of the 17 goals in one game against Muskingum)
GC - 21-6
CM has played two teams with a .500 record; GC has played two teams with winning records
They have played one common opponent - Allegheny: GC winning 3-0 at Allegheny, CM 2-1 at home.
Based on what these teams have done on the field this year - I cannot understand why "objectively" there would be much difference in how they are rated. Subjective variables have to be the difference. A rhetorical "Why?" - unless someone really knows why!
Using Massey's match-up tool for Thursday head-to-head between these two teams:
CM GC
Actual Score 0 0
Most Likely 2 1
Median 2 1
Mean 1.89 1.40
Win Prob 55% 32%
We shall see . . .
I do take pedigree into account. The college season is short and we're only a third of the way through, so we have limited information. When comparing teams, I use all information, including previous seasons, and give it relative weight. Teams change from year to year, so this season's results carry much more weight, but I have a baseline view that begins with recent seasons (last year being the most important) and expectations for this year. Kenyon, ONU, CMU, and OWU have regularly made the tournament and all made it last year, so I considered them NCAA-level (or potential) to start the year.
Once the season begins, I use results to adjust my view. So far, results have not changed my view of those teams much, as combined they have one loss (OWU) to a Top 10 team (Washington and Lee). Based on my expectation, results, and what I've seen from their play, at the moment I still think they're all four potential/probable NCAA teams. That could change if CMU loses to Grove City or struggles in UAA play, or if the other teams start dropping games, but based on current information that's how I view them.
Grove City has started very well. But they have not been an NCAA-level team, or even been in the discussion, in recent seasons. So I did not view them as an NCAA-level team to start 2016. My view of GC has improved with their results to date, but not enough to consider them NCAA-level right now. Sure, they've beaten also-rans from the NCAC and OAC, but those other teams do that every year. They fell short against Oberlin, another team that is not usually NCAA-level. And they haven't beaten an NCAA-level team yet to show me that they belong in that group.
Even if we limit it to this season, my Top 4 have better results than Grove City. Kenyon and CMU have perfect records, and ONU hammered Oberlin, who beat GC. OWU is the only team with a loss, but OWU's loss is better (even if Oberlin isn't a bad loss) and OWU has the best win of the entire group (over Calvin).
As for more "objective" measures, I'm not a huge fan of Massey, as I think comparative scores don't tell you much in soccer. I find comparative results somewhat helpful, but if Team A and Team B both beat Team C, I give no real weight to the scoreline. Massey is also limited because these five teams have all played very different schedules, making it hard to compare. Even then, Massey views these teams as I do, rating Kenyon 5th, ONU 20th, CMU 25th, OWU 27th, and Grove City 63rd.
To answer your question, then, I think history matters until we can replace it with better information. And if we're comparing these five teams, GC started the season below them, and while GC's fast start has them trending up, they have not shown they belong there just yet. That can all change as soon as this weekend, but Grove City only has two games against teams that will even make the regional rankings (CMU and Thomas More), so they need to take those opportunities. Alternatively, GC can win the conference AQ and make some noise in the tournament. But Thomas More didn't get much support as a top team in the region until they started beating the other top teams in the Great Lakes, and GC won't either.
Also, just for clarification, this applies to all up-and-coming teams, not just Grove City, and it applies in all college sports, not just DIII soccer. Look at D1 football. In 2014 Marshall started 11-0, but had a terrible schedule and barely cracked the Top 25 of the Playoff Rankings. In 2015 Houston started 10-0, but had a weak schedule and barely cracked the Top 20. Then both teams lost to non-Top 25 teams and plummeted. In 2016, however, Houston is already in the Top 5 in the polls and, if they win out, could make the playoff. Why? Because they beat Florida State in a bowl game last year, brought back key players, and recruited well, increasing respect and expectations. Then Houston proved they belong by beating #3 Oklahoma on opening weekend. I'm happy to bump Grove City to that top group, and I've provided more than enough bulletin-board material to motivate them, but they have to earn it against the big boys.
It's a good discussion, and this is just my personal view. Here's another way to think about it: if Grove City played any of these teams in the NCAA tournament, who would you expect to win?
FWIW, CMU is the one "major" team in Great Lakes that I never seem to have a good feel for. I agree that Grove City has work to do to "get in the conversation," but I also think they are going to beat CMU, so we'll see. Probably a bigger game from GC than CMU and if they win that will certainly have an impact. I'm not sure there is a way though, given importance of SoS highlighted so much last year, for GC to get a NCAA bid without winning their tourney. Maybe if they run the table up to that point.
Perhaps a good comparison is the CCC in New England which actually I would argue is a stronger conference overall than the PRAC. Endicott had a stellar season last year and couldn't get a bid as Gordon won the tourney and there was no at-large.
I agree on CMU, because they haven't always played the other top teams in the region, or at least not more than one of them. Kenyon beat them with relative ease the last two years but no matchup this year, and I doubt they'll schedule OWU anytime soon considering lopsided games a few years ago. Still, the UAA is tough enough that we'll get a feel for CMU's strength compared to other potential NCAA teams by the end of the year.
As for Grove City's at-large chances, I just don't see how they can do it. Even if they run the table, they have a maximum of two regional ranked wins - if CMU keeps it up and if Thomas More improves before conference play. Those early home games against Pitt-Greensburg (0-6) and Juniata (1-6) are going to destroy their SoS, and they still have Baldwin Wallace (4-13-3 last year) and St. Vincent (2-15-2), Waynesburg (2-15-1), Bethany (5-12-2), and Thiel (3-14-1) in conference play. GC's SoS was .505 in the final regional rankings in 2015, and their schedule this year is even worse. I can't picture a team with an SoS below 0.500 and two losses getting an at-large bid.
For comparison, in 2015 Thomas More scheduled several difficult out-of-conference games but only managed a 0.525 SoS, and they went 16-2-1 and 1-1-1 against ranked opponents. I had them on the outside of the bubble but they barely squeaked in. GC's best-case scenario is similar, with maybe one more ranked win but an SoS below 0.500.
Good discussion all. Rankings as a method of establishing readiness or fitness to make the tournament field. Rankings as a measure of how teams are actually playing right now - this year, with current players. If there were two sets of rankings - I wonder how they would differ.
Within this discussion we have an actual event in two days between CM and GC. They play virtually the same way - from backs to checking middies and then to the wings. On paper - on the field - should be a tie.
Week 2:
1 Kenyon College
2 Ohio Northern University
3 Carnegie Mellon University
4 Ohio Wesleyan University
5 Oberlin College
6 Grove City College
7 Thomas More College
8 Capital University
9 Penn State-Behrend
10 DePauw University
Also receiving votes: Transylvania University (12), Hanover College (9), Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology (2)
No love for John Carroll - not even an RV??? Hanover has played one home game all year. Thomas More's score for the Spalding game was 5-0 W - not 3-2 loss!
Grove City moves to 7-1 with a 5-1 win over Point Park Univ (NAIA) who came into the match at 3-2-1. The real test for Grove City will be this Friday night vs (#17) CMU who currently stands at 6-0.
Case 2-0 over John Carroll. Technical difficulties with video only provided second half coverage - Case up 1-0 at half. Even without a lead Case plays a 4-4-2, modest pressure by the 2 up top but smothering defense by the back two lines. They let JC get within 10 yards of midfield before stepping up to challenge - JC sending one hopeless long ball after another to the back 4.
Both teams distribute the ball from the keeper to the feet of their backs - giving it to the backs a yard or so outside their own area. JC applied more pressure up top than Case - but the Case backs didn't cough it up - if they didn't have a short option they just sent it down either wing. JC defense turned the ball over on the touch line and allowed the Case player plenty of room to take a couple dribbles with the ball before sending an uncontested left footed shot from just outside the 18 into the far post upper 90 - beautiful goal - but someone needed to step up to challenge that shot!
JC really needed to be more patient - working the ball through the midfield instead of constantly sending the ball over them. They have several good attacking players but many times these players were left to go 1v1. When they did look to combine they had too many heavy passes that either went astray or rolled across the byline. Almost all their corners were served dangerously between the top of the 6 and the PK spot - best they could do was get a handball goal - and a YC for that effort.
Case seems to be finding their way since the season began.
Kenyon comes out flying and looks fantastic. 6-7 very good chances first 12 or so minutes. Dominating Centre through 15-20 minutes. Alas, no goals and game beginning to slow down a little. We'll see how badly the Lords regret not getting a couple already.
And just I get ready to hit send Kenyon breaks through. 1-0.
Oh well, Kenyon back to very ordinary the last 20-25 min of 1st half, probably partly due to extensive subbing but started looking more lackadaisical with loose passes, giveaways, etc. First 15 min especially played with great urgency and purpose, crisp passes and combination play and repeated excellent scoring chances. In other words, they looked like a very highly ranked team should look. Still 1-0 at half. We'll see how they come out in the 2nd.
Kenyon wins 1-0 over Centre. Ho-hum. Superb first 12-15 minutes followed by what looked like pretty average, uninspired play. Video perhaps distorts perception but it was clear when they were playing well. To be honest, Centre didn't look very good. Kenyon left them in the game and there's always a risk when a team gets a couple of corners and a handful of free kicks from 35-50 yards out that you suddenly find yourself 1-1 or down 1-0. The Lords should be motivated to play at a championship or at least near-championship level for 90 minutes. They are working in a few new or newer pieces to larger roles but overall this is a veteran team where maturity should not be an issue. The talent is definitely there and maybe this is all about peaking at the right time, but there are teams out there with similar or even slightly less talent and/or experience playing with more sustained purpose and intensity at this point in the season. Chicago, Rowan, F&M, Messiah, Calvin, Amherst, Trinity, SLU, OWU, etc come to mind. The seniors and juniors who continue to be given a very generous 75-85 minutes with limited apparent product need to step up or be motivated more creatively.
Was at Kenyon v Centre yesterday. Field looked to be unplayable, which led to a disjointed game. Lots of long ball -- not what I expected from a top 25 game. Kenyon kept Centre on the back foot for most of the game, but not many clear chances after the first 15 min (which Kenyon utterly dominated), minus the goal of the long throw. Definitely seemed like Kenyon planned to press and force Centre into mistakes on the field, which was successful.
Kenyon was particularly effective switching the field (not just banging the ball long; hitting it long with a purpose) & letting #9 in the middle run the show. Centre showed that they weren't quite up for that high level of a game, but the gap didn't seem massive. Will be interesting to see how Centre responds and plays in the next couple of games. Bet they are more of a fringe top 25 team that can compete with anyone but the top 5-12 teams (although they have a history of beating OWU, Trinity (TX), and even Kenyon from time to time).
From what I've seen (haven't watched Rowan), Chicago is playing the best right now.
Quote from: GLTrt on September 22, 2016, 12:27:22 PM
Was at Kenyon v Centre yesterday. Field looked to be unplayable, which led to a disjointed game. Lots of long ball -- not what I expected from a top 25 game. Kenyon kept Centre on the back foot for most of the game, but not many clear chances after the first 15 min (which Kenyon utterly dominated), minus the goal of the long throw. Definitely seemed like Kenyon planned to press and force Centre into mistakes on the field, which was successful.
Kenyon was particularly effective switching the field (not just banging the ball long; hitting it long with a purpose) & letting #9 in the middle run the show. Centre showed that they weren't quite up for that high level of a game, but the gap didn't seem massive. Will be interesting to see how Centre responds and plays in the next couple of games. Bet they are more of a fringe top 25 team that can compete with anyone but the top 5-12 teams (although they have a history of beating OWU, Trinity (TX), and even Kenyon from time to time).
From what I've seen (haven't watched Rowan), Chicago is playing the best right now.
Capital played at Wooster yesterday - field was very bad. NCAC - I walked across the field at Wooster - same tell-tale patches of brown that you see on Kenyon and OWU's fields. Ball would roll and then pop up a foot or so off the ground. Denison will play all their games on the football turf field this year.
Results from recent games:
Capital at Wooster - not great field conditions - questionable officiating (14 fouls against Cap, 4 against Wooster - I assure you Wooster committed more than 4 fouls . . .). Evenly played in the early parts of the game - Cap asserted more control in the second half - but needed a fluky goal to steal the win. Defender made a poor choice to play a ball back to his keeper who was instantly closed down by a Cap forward. Compounding the error was the ball was played to the keeper's weaker foot - his attempt to clear was a whiff and Cap walked the ball into an empty net. Cap's commitment to play team defense has improved dramatically since the opening day lose to Calvin. Two big tests against Thomas More away on Sat and OWU at home next Wednesday.
Transylvania at Thomas More - might be an understatement to say something's not right at TM. Dropped two straight at home (three in a row if you count the U of Cincinnati loss on Tuesday). Transylvania is a very good team - they stayed connected all game - solid positional play - knocked the ball around, played to feet - solid defense. The lone TM goal was a deflection - I don't know if the box score credit for the goal will remain as there's no way that wasn't an OG. Shot from outside the 18 hits a defender are redirects into the lower left corner. Keeper already diving to his left- had no chance. Transy come back by attacking down the wings and getting behind the RB for a chip across the area - skims off defender's head right to a wide open Transy player. Winning goal scored in the final minute - blocked shot falls right back to the shooter's foot - given a second shot - drops it into the upper right 90. Heartbreaker for TM - who will play their 4th game in 8 days tomorrow.
Oberlin at Baldwin Wallace - shoot out at the OK Corral. Oberlin was the better side for most of the game - but when they had lapses they were doozies. First BW goal was a reaction shot after a cross was blocked and fell right to a BW forward who side volleyed the ball into the far right side netting - not much the keeper could do. Second goal was a quick counter starting with a long throw from the keeper to the left wing. He cuts toward the center circle and passes to his mate on the right wing. The RW receives the ball 30+ yards out and cuts towards the middle - gets to the D without being touched and drives it low and hard into his left corner. Third goal was a long ball sent down the left wing - RB misjudges it and it gets over his head to a streaking winger - again cuts inside across the area about 12-15 yards from goal. His strike hits the underside of the bar and falls nicely to a teammate who heads it home. Oberlin losing 1 goal leads 3 times wins it in the 88th minute off a free kick header - the foul leading up to the FK was just plain silly to have committed.
Oberlin might be the 4th NCAC team - I have seen them, Denison, Wooster, and Wittenberg in person - Wabash and Allegheny on video. Oberlin can't afford the defensive lapses they had in the BW game once they get into NCAC play. I think, talent-wise, Denison is on par with them - but the 4th spot is wide open IMO.
According to the Grove City athletics site there will be video for tonight's game against Carnegie Mellon:
http://livestream.com/accounts/13431056/events/6373695
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 23, 2016, 12:21:59 PM
According to the Grove City athletics site there will be video for tonight's game against Carnegie Mellon:
http://livestream.com/accounts/13431056/events/6373695
Video is up and working. Since we've been discussing GC at length I'm hoping to catch some of this and see how they measure up. Nice to see a good-sized student section for an afternoon game.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 23, 2016, 04:32:54 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 23, 2016, 12:21:59 PM
According to the Grove City athletics site there will be video for tonight's game against Carnegie Mellon:
http://livestream.com/accounts/13431056/events/6373695
Video is up and working. Since we've been discussing GC at length I'm hoping to catch some of this and see how they measure up. Nice to see a good-sized student section for an afternoon game.
Homecoming weekend - they have been pushing this game a lot this week. GC is playing tighter than a miser's grip on his wallet - shoud be down two by now. GK is playing scared - too afraid to come off his line and take care of situations - then when he does - he loses the ball and almost gives up another. CM pressing high and GC not handling the pressure at all.
And on that note CMU takes the lead. CM has dominated territory and possession, although Grove City had one saved off the line on a free kick where CMU's goalie overcommitted. We'll see how GC reacts.
GC gets another chance as CMU's goalie overcommits again and comes 15 yards for a ball he didn't need to get. GC tries a bike from the top of the 18 but it's well over the bar.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 23, 2016, 04:55:42 PM
And on that note CMU takes the lead. CM has dominated territory and possession, although Grove City had one saved off the line on a free kick where CMU's goalie overcommitted. We'll see how GC reacts.
Amateurish decision making and defending - GC is completely flustered - this could get ugly - fast!
Barn burner at Grove City. GCC ties it up 1-1. 3:00 to go in first half.
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 23, 2016, 04:57:09 PM
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on September 23, 2016, 04:55:42 PM
And on that note CMU takes the lead. CM has dominated territory and possession, although Grove City had one saved off the line on a free kick where CMU's goalie overcommitted. We'll see how GC reacts.
Amateurish decision making and defending - GC is completely flustered - this could get ugly - fast!
Well let's give GC some credit for settling down a little bit - but I kind of fault CM for letting them get off the mat. It's difficult to keep that level of intensity all game long (talking CM) but it just seems they let their foot off the gas. Well placed shot by GC to tie the score.
GCC's high pressure pays off. GCC moves ahead 2-1. 5:00 to go.
Wow, that was not your typical own goal!
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on September 23, 2016, 06:18:16 PM
GCC's high pressure pays off. GCC moves ahead 2-1. 5:00 to go.
That seems like a bit of a generous interpretation of what happened and the overall balance of play, but congrats on a good win!
Huge win for Grove City knocking off #17 CMU in a 2-1 battle.
As Craig Kilborne would say at the end of each episode of The Daily Show: "So what have we learned?"
The individual skills of the CM players was superior to that GC the players; their passing, their team play, their ability to receive a ball under pressure and find a teammate's feet - superior. They dominated the first 15 minutes of the game so much I thought it would be a blow-out after they got their goal. I can't point to "that" moment when GC got into the game, but they settled down and got the ball forward, taking advantage of one opportunity to level the game. Second half pretty much a repeat of the first with CM controlling the initial part of the half, GC exerting more of their will on the game in the latter part. And then one huge mistake - one that is drilled into U10 player's heads - you don't pass the ball back to the keeper on goal.
The will to win, taking advantage of mistakes, the 90 minute grind that is college soccer - all on display last night. I'm having some fun conversations with our freshman parents. They wonder where the "beautiful game" went - why possession is difficult to maintain versus club ball. It took me two years to understand - and accept - The Grind. I am starting to appreciate the qualities of teams that understand The Grind - tenacious pursuit of the ball when you don't have it, sharing the ball with teammates ( "black holes" are a common cause of losses in games I've seen this year - and THAT was not the problem for CM yesterday) - and perhaps most importantly - playing intensely for the full 90 minutes.
Half time at Thomas More - 6pm - 87 degrees in the shade . . . Cap with the only SOG for either team - scores a header off a corner 1-0.
Capital finishes the game 2-0. Second half got a little ugly with some very poor officiating - but credit to the players for not letting things boil over. Much better possession and movement for Cap in second half - TM without senior #12 all game - post game found out he had concussion symptoms after the Transy game - hope he returns soon.
TM vs Waynesberg in a couple weeks - minimum 2 red cards. Zero discipline by either coach to stem the crass trash talking by their teams - TM is too talented to resort to street tactics - until they get back to playing soccer they will continue to suffer.
OWU scores off a long serve (FK) and redirects into left corner for a 1-0 lead. With 20 seconds left the OWU keeper makes an ill-advised challenge for a ball at the top of the 18 - fails to win the ball and Denison scores into an empty net. Final 1-1. 45 combined shots - a grind in the midfield for the portion of the game I saw - OWU's lack of height could be a problem defending crosses in conference play.
Noticed Denison did not start #5 tonight. His selfish play, inability to even look at a teammate while he had the ball, finally was recognized by the coaching staff. Kudos to the staff for having the courage to bench a black hole. When #5 understands how to be a part of a team again (key contributor last year) Denison can finish in the top 4.
Oberlin takes a step forward in the battle for 3rd in the NCAC.
Otterbein wins 3-0 at Earlham - given the early results achieved by Earlham a tip of the cap to the Cards.
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 24, 2016, 07:53:54 AM
As Craig Kilborne would say at the end of each episode of The Daily Show: "So what have we learned?"
The individual skills of the CM players was superior to that GC the players; their passing, their team play, their ability to receive a ball under pressure and find a teammate's feet - superior. They dominated the first 15 minutes of the game so much I thought it would be a blow-out after they got their goal. I can't point to "that" moment when GC got into the game, but they settled down and got the ball forward, taking advantage of one opportunity to level the game. Second half pretty much a repeat of the first with CM controlling the initial part of the half, GC exerting more of their will on the game in the latter part. And then one huge mistake - one that is drilled into U10 player's heads - you don't pass the ball back to the keeper on goal.
The will to win, taking advantage of mistakes, the 90 minute grind that is college soccer - all on display last night. I'm having some fun conversations with our freshman parents. They wonder where the "beautiful game" went - why possession is difficult to maintain versus club ball. It took me two years to understand - and accept - The Grind. I am starting to appreciate the qualities of teams that understand The Grind - tenacious pursuit of the ball when you don't have it, sharing the ball with teammates ( "black holes" are a common cause of losses in games I've seen this year - and THAT was not the problem for CM yesterday) - and perhaps most importantly - playing intensely for the full 90 minutes.
For all your claimed superiority of CMU over GCC, the facts seem to paint a slightly different picture. The game stats were remarkably even...with the only actual significant differences being final score and yellow cards issued.
FINAL SCORE:
GCC - 2
CMU - 1
SHOTS:
GCC - 8
CMU - 11
SOG:
GCC - 4
CMU - 4
SAVES:
GCC - 3
CM - 2
CORNER KICKS:
GCC - 3
CMU - 3
OFFSIDE:
GCC - 0
CMU - 2
YELLOW CARDS:
GCC- 0
CMU - 3
As for "that" turning point in the game, it happened in the first half. Very shortly after CMU scored, GCC made what I thought was a difficult but very smart move. They changed their system of play in the middle of the half and also applied increased pressure. And that made a significant difference and got them back into the game. CMU never countered the change, so GCC's tactical change paid off. Changing your system of play mid-period takes planning and advanced team preparation, which it appeared GCC had done.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on September 25, 2016, 09:01:15 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 24, 2016, 07:53:54 AM
As Craig Kilborne would say at the end of each episode of The Daily Show: "So what have we learned?"
The individual skills of the CM players was superior to that GC the players; their passing, their team play, their ability to receive a ball under pressure and find a teammate's feet - superior. They dominated the first 15 minutes of the game so much I thought it would be a blow-out after they got their goal. I can't point to "that" moment when GC got into the game, but they settled down and got the ball forward, taking advantage of one opportunity to level the game. Second half pretty much a repeat of the first with CM controlling the initial part of the half, GC exerting more of their will on the game in the latter part. And then one huge mistake - one that is drilled into U10 player's heads - you don't pass the ball back to the keeper on goal.
The will to win, taking advantage of mistakes, the 90 minute grind that is college soccer - all on display last night. I'm having some fun conversations with our freshman parents. They wonder where the "beautiful game" went - why possession is difficult to maintain versus club ball. It took me two years to understand - and accept - The Grind. I am starting to appreciate the qualities of teams that understand The Grind - tenacious pursuit of the ball when you don't have it, sharing the ball with teammates ( "black holes" are a common cause of losses in games I've seen this year - and THAT was not the problem for CM yesterday) - and perhaps most importantly - playing intensely for the full 90 minutes.
For all your claimed superiority of CMU over GCC, the facts seem to paint a slightly different picture. The game stats were remarkably even...with the only actual significant differences being final score and yellow cards issued.
FINAL SCORE:
GCC - 2
CMU - 1
SHOTS:
GCC - 8
CMU - 11
SOG:
GCC - 4
CMU - 4
SAVES:
GCC - 3
CM - 2
CORNER KICKS:
GCC - 3
CMU - 3
OFFSIDE:
GCC - 0
CMU - 2
YELLOW CARDS:
GCC- 0
CMU - 3
As for "that" turning point in the game, it happened in the first half. Very shortly after CMU scored, GCC made what I thought was a difficult but very smart move. They changed their system of play in the middle of the half and also applied increased pressure. And that made a significant difference and got them back into the game. CMU never countered the change, so GCC's tactical change paid off. Changing your system of play mid-period takes planning and advanced team preparation, which it appeared GCC had done.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." As with most of my posts I comment on what I see on the field - how the teams play this year, right now. Sorry if you took offense at the commentary about style of play, but CMU was much cleaner with their touches and individual skill - on this day. Yet they lost . . .
I pointed to this game specifically as an example of a match-up of a historical presence versus a current presence. Every year some teams rise to outperform their history while historically dominant teams have a down year. Muhlenberg in 2014 an example of the former, Wheaton Ill 2016, perhaps, an example of the latter?
Look at the qualifying phrases used by we pundits who write here for each type of team. They amount to "I see what you are doing on the field Mr. 7-1 but I still don't believe in you". GC "should" - or "could" run the table up to the TM game. Based on the way TM is playing right now - that could be a very interesting game.
I presented facts. There really were 3 corner kicks per team. CMU really did recieve 3 yellow cards. The score really was 2-1. And so forth. These are facts, not "lies".
You presented your opinion. Which you are entitled to, and which we all do from time to time on these boards. But to say (or at a minimum strongly imply) that the facts I presented were somehow inaccurate or full of "lies" is in and of itself a misrepresentation. Your opinion, is simply that. I respect your point of view, and am happy that so many are willing to share their points-of-view in this forum. But the facts are still the facts. How we interpret the facts is up to each of us and part of what makes these conversations so interesting. But the facts themselves never change.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on September 26, 2016, 12:05:09 PM
I presented facts. There really were 3 corner kicks per team. CMU really did recieve 3 yellow cards. The score really was 2-1. And so forth. These are facts, not "lies".
You presented your opinion. Which you are entitled to, and which we all do from time to time on these boards. But to say (or at a minimum strongly imply) that the facts I presented were somehow inaccurate or full of "lies" is in and of itself a misrepresentation. Your opinion, is simply that. I respect your point of view, and am happy that so many are willing to share their points-of-view in this forum. But the facts are still the facts. How we interpret the facts is up to each of us and part of what makes these conversations so interesting. But the facts themselves never change.
I was not calling you a liar - I thought the quote - attributed to Mark Twain (he said he got it from someone else) - would be understood for the humor it has always represented. Here's another from every stats teacher: "Figures don't lie - but liars figure!" You and I might be in agreement that many opinions/rankings are based on reading numbers versus watching games. Numbers tell part of the story - seeing the performance of teams tells another.
I watched the entire game - I saw GC play twice, have seen CM play three times (including the entire game against John Carroll yesterday). My only opinion is that the skill level of the CM players was superior - on this day, in this game, on that field. They trapped better, their first touch was better, they passed better - based on what I saw. I thought GC played better against PS-Behrand - and I had been saying all week that this game would be even. I think GC's will-to-win was the difference on Friday. I think - if they don't get ahead of themselves, suffer serious injury, etc. - they will not lose up to the TM game. Based on how TM is playing right now - GC has a legitimate chance to win the PrAC.
I only caught the first half and a bit of the second of CMU-GC, but after watching I would put both teams well below Kenyon and Ohio Northern. So I'd say those two (Kenyon and ONU) have separated from the pack, and CMU, OWU, GC, and Oberlin are in the next group for now. Capital can stake a claim against OWU on Wednesday.
GC picked up a good win and showed they can play with better competition, which should give them momentum for conference play. It's always good to get a win when you pull a crowd, too, because they're more likely to come back. I still think, barring a perfect rest of the season, that a Pool C bid is off the table, if only because the SoS is going to be a train wreck.
Yes - GCC will probably need to win the conference to advance. Doesn't the PAC usually only send one team to the tourney? But I do agree -- GCC does have good momentum now which should help them as they enter conference play.
Baldwin-Wallace (3-7) 1, Grove City 0
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 27, 2016, 07:28:23 PM
Baldwin-Wallace (3-7) 1, Grove City 0
Even stats too. Even accounting for a letdown game, losing to a 2-7 (at the time) team should put to bed any discussion of an at-large. Also knocks GC way down (or out of) the regional rankings, as B-W looks set to be at the bottom of the OAC.
CWRU 1, Kenyon 0 OT
Memories of DePauw last year. CWRU played an excellent game. GK was very good although Lords blew a number of in-close chances. Might have been CWRU's only shot on goal.
Kenyon presses so much and gets so many numbers up that when they go a couple of minutes on attack and/or up for set pieces they are really open on the counter.
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 27, 2016, 07:28:23 PM
Baldwin-Wallace (3-7) 1, Grove City 0
Almost a reverse of their game against CMU - GCC had their way with possession for much of the first half, BW had everyone behind the ball. There were moments when GCC's backs were standing on the ball at midfield - even entering the attacking half - with no pressure from BW. BW played better in the second half - getting forward and creating sone chances. When GCC got forward they seemed to lose poise and patience, settling for a less dangerous shot. A very quick counter attack outlet pass down the right wing - BW player cuts left into the area and curls a nice shot into the back corner. And that's all she wrote . . .
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 27, 2016, 09:34:57 PM
CWRU 1, Kenyon 0 OT
Memories of DePauw last year. CWRU played an excellent game. GK was very good although Lords blew a number of in-close chances. Might have been CWRU's only shot on goal.
Kenyon presses so much and gets so many numbers up that when they go a couple of minutes on attack and/or up for set pieces they are really open on the counter.
Kenyon very unlucky to lose this one. Case played well enough to keep themselves in it. Their goalkeeper was far and away the MVP of the match, he was saving everything Kenyon was throwing at him. Kenyon outshoots Case 19-5 with SOG being 10-1 (so yes you're right the goal was the only SOG Case had). Also Case Keeper had 10 saves to Kenyon Keepers 0 (yes zero). I agree that Kenyon can over press at times and be caught out on the counterattack. Seems teams strategy against them right now is to play a little rope a dope defense against them and hit them on the counter. Big game at DePauw this weekend to get back on track for Kenyon.
Kenyon was obviously dominant, but I'm not sure I think they were unlucky. After 20 minutes I could see that CWRU could sneak one on a counter or corner or deep throw. They got a bunch of corners. They never got a SOG but they were very close more than a handful of times from getting a clean opening deep inside the box. Kind of knew when Kenyon couldn't force one in the net in regulation that OT would probably end sort of like it did. Obviously this is a great win for CWRU and gives them an almost sure-thing win versus a high regionally ranked team in November. May also be good for Kenyon to take a loss now and really focus. DePauw will not be easy.
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 27, 2016, 09:34:57 PM
CWRU 1, Kenyon 0 OT
Memories of DePauw last year. CWRU played an excellent game. GK was very good although Lords blew a number of in-close chances. Might have been CWRU's only shot on goal.
Kenyon presses so much and gets so many numbers up that when they go a couple of minutes on attack and/or up for set pieces they are really open on the counter.
It was their only shot on goal. As I mentioned early Kenyon is always going to get the best game from their opponents. They were so effective with high pressure, forcing mistakes from the midfielders - but only had 2 or three really good looks at goal. The Glassman shot off the post . . .
I can't agree that any team in the Great Lakes is that far ahead of the others. Watching ONU-OWU again, watched ONU vs Wittenberg; watched Denison vs OWU; Denison vs Capital, Capital vs Thomas More, John Carroll vs Case; John Carroll vs CMU two days after watching CMU and Grove City. Kenyon at Otterbein, Kenyon vs Case. CMU vs Allegheny, Oberlin vs BW. I see strengths and weaknesses in all - when these top teams play the games are tight - no one blowing out anyone else. Competent defenses and opportunistic offenses.
I expect that Kenyon and ONU will finish 1 and 2 in the Great Lakes region. After that - it's a 10 way tie.
Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.
Here's a question:
What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.
I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.
Really great win for a team that had struggled early on.
Quote from: Midwest Soccer on September 27, 2016, 11:20:22 PM
Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.
Here's a question:
What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.
I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.
We saw what happened to John Carroll two years ago - a 17-4 record - decent SOS.
Implicit in my posts is a frustration with the treatment of "historically" strong teams and conferences versus current performance. Playing the comparative scores game is good to create point of analysis - "mostly" worthless for predicting future outcomes. But I have seen Denison 6? times now? I have described them as inconsistent. I said Heidelberg might be the best team with a losing record - look at the results of these teams and their opponents. And I watched them simultaneously last night with with Case-Kenyon on the other screen. Denison hits the post in regulation - Heidelberg gets the OT winner . . .
Based on performance year-to-date: is the NCAC that much better than the OAC? Kenyon has played three OAC teams - beating Otterbein 2-0 (a game in which they had 11 versus 10 men for nearly 70 minutes - scoring once with the man advantage), beating Heidelberg 1-0 - scoring off a set piece header, in a game that was very even, and then the blow-out of Muskingum. OWU beats Otterbein 2-0 with two second half goals, 0-0 at home against ONU and today is at Capital. Top 25 Oberlin is 3-1 versus the OAC with Otterbein to play this evening - conceding 8 goals to OAC teams (7 in two matches against ONU and BW).
As far as regional rankings and tournament selection time - we shall see. But I think OAC teams understand the history - and the coach and players of every team that I know - either through kids on the team or the coaches - preach the same thing: we have to win the conference, we have to win the post season tournament - we can't afford a single mistake. In some ways that philosophy makes them mentally stronger - game in and game out.
With all this talk of stats being relevant or irrelevant, I took a look at CWRU's history this season.
Loss away at TMC (when TMC was whole) 1-0 with edge in stats to TMC (12 to 4 shots, 9 to 4 corners)
Loss at home to DePauw 2-1 (edge to CWRU with 15 to 13 shots and 13 to 7 corners)
Tie at Hiram! (stats even!)
Loss at Ohio Northern (stats pretty even with 18 to 16 shots for CWRU and ONU with 9 to 2 corners)
Win over JCU 2-0 (stats pretty even with JCU 9 to 4 in corners)
Loss at Lycoming 1-0 (Lycoming huge edge 19 to 2 shots and 5 to 2 corners)
Win home vs Kenyon (stats 19 to 5 shots for Kenyon and CWRU with 7 to 6 edge corners...mostly from scrambling defense Kenyon had to play on CWRU counters after being stretched and CWRU had open field on broken plays)
Unable to draw any significant conclusions from above.
We'll see if CWRU can muster up 3-4 wins in the UAA or something like 3-3-1 or 3-2-2. Good break starting out with NYU.
Just about an inch of rain in central Ohio with more to come. Games on grass - at Oberlin and Wooster - looking iffy . . .
I don't think there's any question that the NCAC has been stronger than the OAC for awhile. ONU has done well in the tournament, but I can't recall the last time a non-ONU team won an NCAA game. In the last five years alone, Kenyon, OWU, DePauw, and Oberlin have all won games, and the first three have all made at least the Sweet 16.
This year isn't as clear cut because we haven't seen the top teams in each conference play much. If we take the top four in the NCAC as Kenyon, OWU, DePauw, and Oberlin, and the OAC's best as ONU, Capital, John Carroll, and Otterbein, then the NCAC leads 2-1-1 with tonight's OWU-Capital and Oberlin-Otterbein game spending. But DePauw and John Carroll play no games against the other conference's top four, and Kenyon only played Otterbein. If OWU and Oberlin both win tonight, we can probably put this to bed. Any other results and it's still up in the air a bit.
As for at-large bids, the criteria are there for all to see and using the criteria most of the at-large bids are easy to predict - they're just a function of those statistics. I haven't seen much evidence that bids are based on "historical" success, especially within the Great Lakes region. I agree that 2014 John Carroll would have made the tournament most years, and I believe we had them on the right side of the bubble, but they were unlucky because the OAC was terrible that year - the second-best team was Heidelberg at 13-7-1 - and so they had few ranked wins and a weak SOS.
Edit: Went back to look and 2014 JC's SOS was 34th out of the 39 teams that were regionally ranked.
The biggest obstacle, frankly, is the comparison to other regions. The committee has not traditionally given the Great Lakes a ton of respect, and with fewer ranked teams nearby, teams don't have as many chances to pick up those coveted ranked wins. (Being in the Midwest, it's hard to get games against top teams from outside the region). It's not so much one GL team losing out to another as it is bubble GL teams failing to edge teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.
Ryan - are you coming tonight? I'm at the Rusty Bucket in Bexley - will be till 6:30 - stop in and I'll buy you one!
Quote from: Midwest Soccer on September 27, 2016, 11:20:22 PM
Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.
Here's a question:
What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.
I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.
Long time lurker, first time poster....
The question posed - would a 19-1-1 ONU side be a 100% lock to get in if they lost in the OAC tournament after running the table?
Simply put... Yes, unquestionable, 100%, guaranteed, death and taxes, lock.
Position in the regional rankings in the weeks
leading up to the final ranking matters - A LOT. Dropping an OAC semi final game to an opponent who may have a weak SOS (depending who they could lose to.... as you mention, Cap is looking like they might not be such a "bad" loss at the end of the year) won't move the needle all that far in the regional rankings for that "final" all important ranking. If they come into that last weekly ranking having been 1 or 2 in the region for the first 3... they aren't dropping out of the top 4 spots based on that one loss. (remember, a top NCAC team will be getting handed a loss that week too!) Assuming then that at least one team "ahead" of them in the regional rankings as of the final ranking gets an AQ (the NCAC winner), then they will absolutely, 100% without a doubt be one of the first at large teams to be handed a berth given the scenario you describe.
Also, and just for fun re: the weak SoS and lack of WoR, you point to CWRU staying hot as the only hope of a quality win, apart from Cap getting in the picture. We will see tonight, but I think Cap is legit and can be part of that mix... but you left another possibility out.... Oberlin is 6-1 with wins over upstart GC and DePauw... the Polar Bears smacked them around 4-0 for their lone loss. Is it out of the question given the NCAC grinder that Oberlin is regionally ranked when it matters?
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 28, 2016, 04:54:42 PM
Ryan - are you coming tonight? I'm at the Rusty Bucket in Bexley - will be till 6:30 - stop in and I'll buy you one!
Domino - I'll be there but might not be early. Have to drop off my lady friend at the airport for work so I'll be cutting it close to gametime.
Donkey, first of all, welcome.
The regional rankings are something that will befuddle me no matter how many times Flying and Weasel, RH and others explain it.
Let's just consider one scenario that then could be multiplied several times over in terms of how random the whole deal can feel.
CWRU, after beating Kenyon, in a game that very, very easily could have and some would argue should have gone the other way, now stands a good chance (if they can win a few UAA games) of being regionally ranked at the end. Presuming that Kenyon doesn't completely collapse CWRU will then have a win over a regionally ranked team. Now, IF Kenyon had won, that would still hurt Kenyon at least in theory, possibly, because saddling CWRU with another loss might well have prevented the possibility of CWRU getting regionally ranked by the end of the season or at least would have made that far more difficult (as CWRU would be standing at 3-5-1). So, the loss hurts Kenyon but they also wouldn't have necessarily gained much with a win because the win could knock a team out of counting as a ranked opponent at the end of the day. I'm sure there are a ton of examples like this where the upset gives a team a better chance of being ranked (and "counting") and a loss just further ensures that that team won't get ranked at the end. As an aside, this is yet another argument for the "once ranked always ranked" method.
Back to CWRU, they do get NYU at home next but then they have a brutal 5 game stretch of away games -- Oberlin, Brandeis, Emory, Rochester and North Park. They then get possibly the best two UAA teams -- Chicago and Wash U -- at home but that doesn't really help if you would be losing one or both of those games anyway. And then they conclude on the road at CMU. Quite a challenge.
Kenyon@ DePauw this weekend got more compelling. DePauw handed Kenyon its only regular season loss last year, and with DPU losing already to Oberlin the Tigers can ill afford to lose another this early with OWU, rival Wabash and Denison down the road. Kenyon can't afford to lose two in a row, as they have Oberlin and Denison on the road back to back soon. A fired up and confident Oberlin team away could be tough and Denison is always tricky for the Lords.
Capital 1 OWU 0.
Big win for Cap, gives their nice run of wins legitimacy. Not much either way in the first half. Each team had one big chance, and Capital converted theirs. OWU failed to clear a cross, fell to a Cap player whose shot trickled past the GK. OWU's chance saw a shot on goal beat the GK but rattle the crossbar. OWU edged the second half and created 4-5 great opportunities but couldn't finish. Missed a sitter, caught Cap napping on a free kick but the GK saved from 10 yards, and missed one open net with the GK caught out. Cap played some nice stuff through the middle and had one great chance but OWU's keeper made a nice save. The last 5-10 were a comedy of errors from both sides. Capital couldn't keep the ball and sat way too deep, inviting tons of pressure, but OWU was trying to hit the million dollar ball repeatedly and kept turning it over.
Pretty even game, on the whole, played almost entirely in the midfield. The field had an impact, as the rain made it fast and very difficult to play passes into space. No idea how teams played on grass, because there was standing water on various areas of Cap's turf. Capital has some athletes and can play some good stuff through the middle. Not much creativity in the final third tonight, but field conditions made it difficult for them to show a whole lot. OWU's youth is playing like it. Lapses in concentration and giving up soft goals has been a recurring problem, but you can overcome a bad goal here or there if you're scoring. They aren't right now.
Wow. DePauw wins 1-0 over TMC on a EJ Moore goal at literally 89:59 off a corner. DPU had outshot TMC 13-1 and corners 8 to 2.
TMC now 5-5 (not counting Cincy loss). Not the season TMC was expecting thus far I'm sure. Grove City has a real chance to win the PRAC tourney but now TMC will enjoy an underdog role which may be very dangerous that last weekend.
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 29, 2016, 08:55:13 PM
Wow. DePauw wins 1-0 over TMC on a EJ Moore goal at literally 89:59 off a corner. DPU had outshot TMC 13-1 and corners 8 to 2.
TMC now 5-5 (not counting Cincy loss). Not the season TMC was expecting thus far I'm sure. Grove City has a real chance to win the PRAC tourney but now TMC will enjoy an underdog role which may be very dangerous that last weekend.
Speaking of GCC and goals at the 89:59 mark - that also happened to them in the Heidelberg game!
Regional rankings should be interesting. On one hand many teams with a loss or tie this week. On the other hand teams winning both games this week are seeing their SOS decline.
ONU has to be first after their 2-0 week; Capital's two wins come against teams with winning records (they haven't played too many teams WITH winning records) - I think they are second or third; Depauw's two wins were also against tough competition - maybe as high as three? CMU - no shame in the draw against Brandeis - should be in the top four or five with Oberlin. Kenyon and OWU will drop - but not sure by how much, but Kenyon at 5 or 6. OWU may drop lower.
PSU-Behrand doesn't have much left on their schedule except for Medaille - not sure where to put them honestly. But they keep winning - all they can do is take care of the games the have left. In the top 8. Hanover moves up - Transy and GCC move out.
ONU, Capital, DePauw, Oberlin, CMU, Kenyon, PSU-Behrand, OWU, Hanover and I don't have a clue for 10th.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 03, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
Regional rankings should be interesting. On one hand many teams with a loss or tie this week. On the other hand teams winning both games this week are seeing their SOS decline.
ONU has to be first after their 2-0 week; Capital's two wins come against teams with winning records (they haven't played too many teams WITH winning records) - I think they are second or third; Depauw's two wins were also against tough competition - maybe as high as three? CMU - no shame in the draw against Brandeis - should be in the top four or five with Oberlin. Kenyon and OWU will drop - but not sure by how much, but Kenyon at 5 or 6. OWU may drop lower.
PSU-Behrand doesn't have much left on their schedule except for Medaille - not sure where to put them honestly. But they keep winning - all they can do is take care of the games the have left. In the top 8. Hanover moves up - Transy and GCC move out.
ONU, Capital, DePauw, Oberlin, CMU, Kenyon, PSU-Behrand, OWU, Hanover and I don't have a clue for 10th.
Not too far off - DePauw at 6 surprised me.
ONU, Oberlin, Capital, CMU, Kenyon, DePauw, PSU-Behrand, Hanover, OWU and Grove City. What shocked me was to see Kenyon unranked and without a vote in the national rankings.
If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.
Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley. Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 04, 2016, 03:01:20 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 03, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
Regional rankings should be interesting. On one hand many teams with a loss or tie this week. On the other hand teams winning both games this week are seeing their SOS decline.
ONU has to be first after their 2-0 week; Capital's two wins come against teams with winning records (they haven't played too many teams WITH winning records) - I think they are second or third; Depauw's two wins were also against tough competition - maybe as high as three? CMU - no shame in the draw against Brandeis - should be in the top four or five with Oberlin. Kenyon and OWU will drop - but not sure by how much, but Kenyon at 5 or 6. OWU may drop lower.
PSU-Behrand doesn't have much left on their schedule except for Medaille - not sure where to put them honestly. But they keep winning - all they can do is take care of the games the have left. In the top 8. Hanover moves up - Transy and GCC move out.
ONU, Capital, DePauw, Oberlin, CMU, Kenyon, PSU-Behrand, OWU, Hanover and I don't have a clue for 10th.
Not too far off - DePauw at 6 surprised me.
ONU, Oberlin, Capital, CMU, Kenyon, DePauw, PSU-Behrand, Hanover, OWU and Grove City. What shocked me was to see Kenyon unranked and without a vote in the national rankings.
But if you didn't think Kenyon would be top 4 regionally, why would you have expected them to receive a vote in the national rankings? Traditionally the NSCAA places the regional #1's as the top 8 in the national ranking, the regional #2's in spots 9 thru 16, and the regional #3's in places 17 thru 24. Then one lucky regional #4 gets the final spot with some or all of the other regional #4's being listed as receiving votes.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 06, 2016, 12:40:55 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 04, 2016, 03:01:20 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 03, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
Regional rankings should be interesting. On one hand many teams with a loss or tie this week. On the other hand teams winning both games this week are seeing their SOS decline.
ONU has to be first after their 2-0 week; Capital's two wins come against teams with winning records (they haven't played too many teams WITH winning records) - I think they are second or third; Depauw's two wins were also against tough competition - maybe as high as three? CMU - no shame in the draw against Brandeis - should be in the top four or five with Oberlin. Kenyon and OWU will drop - but not sure by how much, but Kenyon at 5 or 6. OWU may drop lower.
PSU-Behrand doesn't have much left on their schedule except for Medaille - not sure where to put them honestly. But they keep winning - all they can do is take care of the games the have left. In the top 8. Hanover moves up - Transy and GCC move out.
ONU, Capital, DePauw, Oberlin, CMU, Kenyon, PSU-Behrand, OWU, Hanover and I don't have a clue for 10th.
Not too far off - DePauw at 6 surprised me.
ONU, Oberlin, Capital, CMU, Kenyon, DePauw, PSU-Behrand, Hanover, OWU and Grove City. What shocked me was to see Kenyon unranked and without a vote in the national rankings.
But if you didn't think Kenyon would be top 4 regionally, why would you have expected them to receive a vote in the national rankings? Traditionally the NSCAA places the regional #1's as the top 8 in the national ranking, the regional #2's in spots 9 thru 16, and the regional #3's in places 17 thru 24. Then one lucky regional #4 gets the final spot with some or all of the other regional #4's being listed as receiving votes.
If what you say is correct - then I've learned something new!
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 06, 2016, 03:39:55 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 06, 2016, 12:40:55 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 04, 2016, 03:01:20 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 03, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
Regional rankings should be interesting. On one hand many teams with a loss or tie this week. On the other hand teams winning both games this week are seeing their SOS decline.
ONU has to be first after their 2-0 week; Capital's two wins come against teams with winning records (they haven't played too many teams WITH winning records) - I think they are second or third; Depauw's two wins were also against tough competition - maybe as high as three? CMU - no shame in the draw against Brandeis - should be in the top four or five with Oberlin. Kenyon and OWU will drop - but not sure by how much, but Kenyon at 5 or 6. OWU may drop lower.
PSU-Behrand doesn't have much left on their schedule except for Medaille - not sure where to put them honestly. But they keep winning - all they can do is take care of the games the have left. In the top 8. Hanover moves up - Transy and GCC move out.
ONU, Capital, DePauw, Oberlin, CMU, Kenyon, PSU-Behrand, OWU, Hanover and I don't have a clue for 10th.
Not too far off - DePauw at 6 surprised me.
ONU, Oberlin, Capital, CMU, Kenyon, DePauw, PSU-Behrand, Hanover, OWU and Grove City. What shocked me was to see Kenyon unranked and without a vote in the national rankings.
But if you didn't think Kenyon would be top 4 regionally, why would you have expected them to receive a vote in the national rankings? Traditionally the NSCAA places the regional #1's as the top 8 in the national ranking, the regional #2's in spots 9 thru 16, and the regional #3's in places 17 thru 24. Then one lucky regional #4 gets the final spot with some or all of the other regional #4's being listed as receiving votes.
If what you say is correct - then I've learned something new!
Traditionally, that's how the NSCAA does it going back as far as I can remember (+/-2000). In recent years there was an effort by some within the NSCAA to become more flexible and I think last year (or was it 2014?) their national rankings deviated from the traditional framework (regional #1's at 1-8, regional #2's at 9-16, regional #3's at 17-24) a little bit (not much, but a little). I haven't been following the NSCAA rankings much this year to know if they have been rigidly sticking to that framework or if they have deviated some again. This is why teams sometimes move so drastically in the NSCAA national rankings from week to week. If a team moves 1 or 2 spots in the the regional rankings it can result in a pretty significant move in the national rankings regardless of how teams in other regions fared in the previous week. And it means that a weak region will still have three teams in the national rankings and a strong region will only have three, maybe four, teams in the national rankings.
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 06, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.
Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley. Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.
Indeed. In addition to your observations - the two starting goalkeepers are ranked #1 and #4 in the country - save percent; #1 and #3 GAA. After Capital's opening game loss - 4-1 to Calvin - a number of line-up changes were made, roster turnover has occurred - and they have won 10 straight, 8 by shut-out. Each team has only given up 1 goal in their last 6 games - ONU 3 straight shut-outs, Capital with 5.
These teams play great team defense - number of shots on goal a testament to that: Cap's starting keeper has allowed one goal, 29 shots on goal in 9 games - slightly over 3 shots on goal per game; ONU's keeper - who has played every game - has allowed 4 goals, 41 total shots on goal in 13 games, again just slightly over 3 shots on goal per game.
One of the biggest differences - other than goals scored - ONU second in the nation with 47 - is fouls and cards: ONU has ALWAYS been at the bottom of conference play in total fouls committed and cards received. To play hard, not commit fouls AND have a winning record like they do is truly to be admired. ONU tied for 13th in the nation in lowest number of fouls committed - 75, 7 yellows, 0 red. Capital has committed almost 50 more fouls in two fewer games - 122, 11 yellow, 0 red. Capital can be careless with fouls 30 yards and close to goal - this game may very well likely be decided on a set piece
ONU's three road games have been interesting - two 2-1 wins and the 0-0 game at OWU. The two wins came against not highly rated teams - and 2 of the four goals conceded came in those games (the Wittenberg goal was an OG). Their fouls per game are higher on the road than at home also.
Saturday is Homecoming and if Capital gets any increase in attendance that could provide an emotional lift to them.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 06, 2016, 04:11:06 PM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 06, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.
Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley. Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.
Indeed. In addition to your observations - the two starting goalkeepers are ranked #1 and #4 in the country - save percent; #1 and #3 GAA. After Capital's opening game loss - 4-1 to Calvin - a number of line-up changes were made, roster turnover has occurred - and they have won 10 straight, 8 by shut-out. Each team has only given up 1 goal in their last 6 games - ONU 3 straight shut-outs, Capital with 5.
These teams play great team defense - number of shots on goal a testament to that: Cap's starting keeper has allowed one goal, 29 shots on goal in 9 games - slightly over 3 shots on goal per game; ONU's keeper - who has played every game - has allowed 4 goals, 41 total shots on goal in 13 games, again just slightly over 3 shots on goal per game.
One of the biggest differences - other than goals scored - ONU second in the nation with 47 - is fouls and cards: ONU has ALWAYS been at the bottom of conference play in total fouls committed and cards received. To play hard, not commit fouls AND have a winning record like they do is truly to be admired. ONU tied for 13th in the nation in lowest number of fouls committed - 75, 7 yellows, 0 red. Capital has committed almost 50 more fouls in two fewer games - 122, 11 yellow, 0 red. Capital can be careless with fouls 30 yards and close to goal - this game may very well likely be decided on a set piece
ONU's three road games have been interesting - two 2-1 wins and the 0-0 game at OWU. The two wins came against not highly rated teams - and 2 of the four goals conceded came in those games (the Wittenberg goal was an OG). Their fouls per game are higher on the road than at home also.
Saturday is Homecoming and if Capital gets any increase in attendance that could provide an emotional lift to them.
Great points. I wonder if any of you Columbus guys know the details on Yost's Goalkeeper tryouts those first 3 games. Niswonger and the other Junior split time last year - but we haven't really seen the other guy since giving up 4 on 7 SOG to Calvin. I wonder is Niswonger the real thing or is he benefiting from good defending and a weakish schedule?
As far as playing away from home for ONU - that's an interesting point. I'll go one step further... were they a little off form at Anderson and at OWU because they were playing on grass? That facility they put in up there really suits them and the style they want to play. No football lines, and a full 120x72... really, really, really tough place for a visiting time intent on parking the bus to do so. Playing in tighter venues while traveling probably contributes to the slightly higher foul rate as well.
Sucks for both teams that the remainder of the OAC currently sits at a combined 33-46-10... I mean oof.
One would have to predict that one of these two teams gets the OAC AQ, so if the rest of the season plays out "to plan" for both teams, barring the results against each other, I think ONU has a safer grasp on an at-large than does CAP... without a current loss and with the win over Oberlin. But either way, I think it's safe to call Saturday night the "OAC tournament - pool C version".
What if something crazy happens and a 6-7 loss John Carroll snuck through the tournament? No way the OAC gets 3 teams in, right?
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 06, 2016, 05:06:37 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 06, 2016, 04:11:06 PM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 06, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.
Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley. Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.
Indeed. In addition to your observations - the two starting goalkeepers are ranked #1 and #4 in the country - save percent; #1 and #3 GAA. After Capital's opening game loss - 4-1 to Calvin - a number of line-up changes were made, roster turnover has occurred - and they have won 10 straight, 8 by shut-out. Each team has only given up 1 goal in their last 6 games - ONU 3 straight shut-outs, Capital with 5.
These teams play great team defense - number of shots on goal a testament to that: Cap's starting keeper has allowed one goal, 29 shots on goal in 9 games - slightly over 3 shots on goal per game; ONU's keeper - who has played every game - has allowed 4 goals, 41 total shots on goal in 13 games, again just slightly over 3 shots on goal per game.
One of the biggest differences - other than goals scored - ONU second in the nation with 47 - is fouls and cards: ONU has ALWAYS been at the bottom of conference play in total fouls committed and cards received. To play hard, not commit fouls AND have a winning record like they do is truly to be admired. ONU tied for 13th in the nation in lowest number of fouls committed - 75, 7 yellows, 0 red. Capital has committed almost 50 more fouls in two fewer games - 122, 11 yellow, 0 red. Capital can be careless with fouls 30 yards and close to goal - this game may very well likely be decided on a set piece
ONU's three road games have been interesting - two 2-1 wins and the 0-0 game at OWU. The two wins came against not highly rated teams - and 2 of the four goals conceded came in those games (the Wittenberg goal was an OG). Their fouls per game are higher on the road than at home also.
Saturday is Homecoming and if Capital gets any increase in attendance that could provide an emotional lift to them.
Great points. I wonder if any of you Columbus guys know the details on Yost's Goalkeeper tryouts those first 3 games. Niswonger and the other Junior split time last year - but we haven't really seen the other guy since giving up 4 on 7 SOG to Calvin. I wonder is Niswonger the real thing or is he benefiting from good defending and a weakish schedule?
As far as playing away from home for ONU - that's an interesting point. I'll go one step further... were they a little off form at Anderson and at OWU because they were playing on grass? That facility they put in up there really suits them and the style they want to play. No football lines, and a full 120x72... really, really, really tough place for a visiting time intent on parking the bus to do so. Playing in tighter venues while traveling probably contributes to the slightly higher foul rate as well.
Sucks for both teams that the remainder of the OAC currently sits at a combined 33-46-10... I mean oof.
One would have to predict that one of these two teams gets the OAC AQ, so if the rest of the season plays out "to plan" for both teams, barring the results against each other, I think ONU has a safer grasp on an at-large than does CAP... without a current loss and with the win over Oberlin. But either way, I think it's safe to call Saturday night the "OAC tournament - pool C version".
What if something crazy happens and a 6-7 loss John Carroll snuck through the tournament? No way the OAC gets 3 teams in, right?
The other keeper was one who left a couple weeks ago. Go to the Otterbein game and start watching with about 7 minutes left. He makes a fantastic save off a restart.
You don't want a keeper who has to make saves like that more than once in a while.
Everyone suffers from an occasional bad touch, a slip, etc. Barring anything like that or a PK, Capital will lose this game by not tracking runners or staying with marks. ONU doesn't have many weaknesses but Cap might be the fastest team they will see. If they stay wide and use their speed they could get a scoring opportunity.
Oberlin does it again. 10-1-1. Few days ago come from behind win over CWRU and today another OT win away at Wabash.
Among schools most have heard of Oberlin is about the least likely school. Very tough admissions, non-athletic, ultra-liberal. A close cousin to Wesleyan but without NESCAC tradition for athletics. Kudos to Coach New for staying at Oberlin through thick and thin. Great story and this edition might be better than the 2013 NCAA squad. Still have to square how the Yeomen were outshot 25-10 by Baldwin-Wallace.
And of course DePauw follows up win over Kenyon with loss to Hiram.
ONU - Capital was non stop, up and down the field play. No one sat in here! ONU's team defense is to be admired - they must have won 90% of the "second balls" that coaches scream for kids to get. Their experience - the size of their seniors and juniors is as large as Capital's entire roster - and talent makes them a final 4 candidate IMO.
Capital couldn't stay with their runners - ONU's attacker players are constantly - constantly - in motion. They are fast, have great touch, go to the ball hard - very few flaws. Their first goal comes of Kinkopf beating his defender and send a ball on the ground from the byline to an unmarked runner. Second goal from a mistake in judgment and a missed tackle, leaving the field wide open for Kinkopf's breakaway.
Capital can be admired for fighting back twice after falling behind. Not their cleanest game, technically - played very direct most of the night - but when they stayed wide they were able to get with 18 yards of goal for crossing opportunities. While not able to get many quality shots on goal from the run of play, the corners and throw-ins earned provided the two goal scoring plays. Only 5 Capital players have started every game - and 6 freshman have played or started in every game. Hopefully their game experience will prove valuable down the stretch.
Not sure how much the draw affects either team - but Oberlin keeps on a rollin'. Great match-up this week as they host Kenyon. I need to get with the commissioners of the NCAC and OAC and have them schedule around my ability to get to games! ONU has Berg away and JCU at home - Berg played Kenyon tough at home and ONU doesn't prefer grass - we'll see which Berg team shows up - and if they can avoid self-destructive errors. CMU has a crazy schedule - at Rochester Friday and then down to Atlanta on Sunday. Emory beats undefeated Wash U this weekend, Rochester very strong - will be a difficult week for them. Capital has a relatively light week - but young players, after an emotional game - are prone to let-downs. Hanover at 10-2 - losses only to OWU and DePauw by one goal - as a tricky away game at Transy - but they should move up in this week's rankings. Crove City bounces back after back-to-back losses and Geneva continues to play well. PSU-Behrand had a disappointing tie yesterday and they have 3 games this week.
Tuesday's rankings: Oberlin, ONU, CMU, Capital, Kenyon, Hanover, OWU, PSU-B, GCC and Geneva.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 09, 2016, 09:51:27 AM
ONU - Capital was non stop, up and down the field play. No one sat in here! ONU's team defense is to be admired - they must have won 90% of the "second balls" that coaches scream for kids to get. Their experience - the size of their seniors and juniors is as large as Capital's entire roster - and talent makes them a final 4 candidate IMO.
Capital couldn't stay with their runners - ONU's attacker players are constantly - constantly - in motion. They are fast, have great touch, go to the ball hard - very few flaws. Their first goal comes of Kinkopf beating his defender and send a ball on the ground from the byline to an unmarked runner. Second goal from a mistake in judgment and a missed tackle, leaving the field wide open for Kinkopf's breakaway.
Capital can be admired for fighting back twice after falling behind. Not their cleanest game, technically - played very direct most of the night - but when they stayed wide they were able to get with 18 yards of goal for crossing opportunities. While not able to get many quality shots on goal from the run of play, the corners and throw-ins earned provided the two goal scoring plays. Only 5 Capital players have started every game - and 6 freshman have played or started in every game. Hopefully their game experience will prove valuable down the stretch.
Not sure how much the draw affects either team - but Oberlin keeps on a rollin'. Great match-up this week as they host Kenyon. I need to get with the commissioners of the NCAC and OAC and have them schedule around my ability to get to games! ONU has Berg away and JCU at home - Berg played Kenyon tough at home and ONU doesn't prefer grass - we'll see which Berg team shows up - and if they can avoid self-destructive errors. CMU has a crazy schedule - at Rochester Friday and then down to Atlanta on Sunday. Emory beats undefeated Wash U this weekend, Rochester very strong - will be a difficult week for them. Capital has a relatively light week - but young players, after an emotional game - are prone to let-downs. Hanover at 10-2 - losses only to OWU and DePauw by one goal - as a tricky away game at Transy - but they should move up in this week's rankings. Crove City bounces back after back-to-back losses and Geneva continues to play well. PSU-Behrand had a disappointing tie yesterday and they have 3 games this week.
Tuesday's rankings: Oberlin, ONU, CMU, Capital, Kenyon, Hanover, OWU, PSU-B, GCC and Geneva.
Lived up to the billing and was certainly an entertaining contest. Domino I think much of your praise of ONU in this one is well founded, agreed that their off ball movement both in terms of consistently doing it - and it being creative and dangerous, is to be envied. Balls played back from the endline on the ground to near post or mid frame runners have been a staple of their attacking style for quite a while now, and while I think the word is out and teams know it's coming - it's still very hard to defend. Kinkopf looked the part of a top tier forward on the opening assist, and on the calm touch and finish for the second.
Team defending IN THE RUN OF PLAY I agree was also a real strong point. They just don't make mistakes. Then again, ONU has been accused of being too "low pressure" in the past, particularly in the 2012 runner-up run, preferring to defend patiently, attempt to force play where it is advantageous for them, and considering actual tackling a bit of necessary evil. I think this years' group has actually struck a better balance. That mindset is still there (thus the low foul count), but I see this group having a bit more bite, and again, as you mentioned they are ferocious in transition play. I'm stunned to see a top 5 ranked program consistently subbing a center back each half, and yet not having much of a drop off, if any - which speaks to the experience and depth you noted.
However, two things stood out as areas of concern in this one if you are making the case for ONU to make a deep NCAA run - and I can't agree that there was a final four contender on the field Saturday night in Bexley.
First off - the set piece defending was as awful as the open play defending was superb. Embarrassing is a word that comes to mind. Maybe this was just a bad night, but I have a feeling it's a weakness we will see again. I thought a highly touted (rightly) GK was exposed pretty badly on an inability to command his 18 in traffic and judge balls in the air, and that his confidence in doing so was rattled by what ONU clearly felt was some over-assertive contact early in the match. I say "what ONU clearly felt" because they were all over the official about contact against the GK - and that consistent "referee manipulation", in my opinion, preserved the result for them. Again, IMHO only - but CAP's goal that was called back shortly after pulling level in the second half for contact on McNeil was a bail out call. No foul there. I went back and watched it. Is it a call that's often given, yes. Was it wrong, yes. 2-1 CAP at that moment at home? I think they seal the deal.
Now, credit to CAP for possessing a consistently dangerous long throw, and I was even more impressed with the quality of service from dead balls by Pulliam... wow can that kid play a dangerous set piece. But ONU's restart defending was consistently poor all night - not just when they conceded. Where CAP failed to gain many quality looks in open play - their
worst restarts still looked like uncertain moments for the Polar Bears.
Second, I was really stunned at how often ONU played short and tried to build, and then lost possession before crossing midfield. I lost count how often this happened. Caveat - I think Northern is as good as any team in the country at getting a center back in possession at midfield to play a penetrating pass forward. It's where they are most dangerous, and where they are most confident. The teams that sit in and let them walk it up might as well not leave the locker room, because they are good enough and creative enough to break you down a couple times playing 9 or 10v11 in half a field.... the problem was it just wasn't working Saturday.
Again, credit to CAP, because I feel they got the prescription for pressuring the ONU build just right, and tactically it was what kept them in the game. Most of CAP's best opportunities came from winning the ball high up the pitch and having even numbers or 3v4 looks while running forward at pace. Only problem for CAP is that they weren't very clinical at all with those opportunities - I think they have plenty of good solid attacking players, and they are spoiled with pace... but if you are playing a team with a true 1v1 attacking stud who can finish, and concede possession that sloppily without adjusting for 90 minutes, you are going to get punished.
My feeling? Far too many teams in at the NCAA D3 tournament level capable of keeping it close with this group - in the kind of game that will be decided on a restart. If Saturday's restart defending is any indication, I'm betting on the other guys in one of those contests.
For tomorrow - I'm with you on most of the rankings... but ONU stays ahead of Oberlin for another week. Talk to me after a win or draw w/Kenyon.
Kenyon thoroughly dominating Oberlin but of course Oberlin went up 1-0. Oberlin almost scored in first 30 seconds and then 2-3 more really chances in the 2-3 minutes they had ball the first half. Oberlin had a free kick from 35-40 yards out and somehow ball squirted through entire Lords defense and a kid tapped it in. Kenyon finally broke through with second unit. Lords were looking down like fate just not with them but perhaps getting level will give them some confidence. Even though getting dominated you can tell Oberlin wants thisoen bad and has a lot of resolve. Should be interesting 2nd half. Oberlin has been hyping this game for a few days now I hear. Game also kept getting delayed from 5:00 to 6:00 to 6:45 with no explanation.
Going OT. Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK. Couldn't see what happened.
Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half. Oberlin very resilient and determined.
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 11, 2016, 08:43:32 PM
Going OT. Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK. Couldn't see what happened.
Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half. Oberlin very resilient and determined.
Extremely unfortunate hand ball - Kenyon player's hand was above his head on that long cross. No Oberlin player near him - ball would have gone out for a goal kick otherwise.
Now - that officiating with 2 seconds to go IS interesting!
Kenyon finally catches a break. Blake New is gonna have nightmares.
Oberlin probably could have won the NCAC with the draw even with a loss to OWU.
Kenyon outshot Oberlin 33 to 10 and 19 to 4 on goal. That said, Kenyon rarely got any real quality chances. Supersub striker didn't play and Amolo didn't play in OT at all.
Kenyon should have put the game away earlier and by the end Oberlin probably deserved a draw. Really impressed with the toughness of Oberlin.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 11, 2016, 09:15:15 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 11, 2016, 08:43:32 PM
Going OT. Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK. Couldn't see what happened.
Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half. Oberlin very resilient and determined.
Extremely unfortunate hand ball - Kenyon player's hand was above his head on that long cross. No Oberlin player near him - ball would have gone out for a goal kick otherwise.
Now - that officiating with 2 seconds to go IS interesting!
"As the game-clock ticked down towards 00:00, the Lords launched one more ball into the Oberlin defensive third. With three-seconds on the clock, the Lords were gifted a corner kick, but received an even greater gift as the head official stopped play to remove a second ball on the field and placed eight seconds back on the clock." - from Oberlin's recap. Not sure about the "gifted" corner - although the Kenyon player who attempted to keep the ball in play appeared to touch it before it exited the field of play - I'm guessing it was judged to be out before he touched it. But adding back 8 seconds - there were two on the stadium clock - is the head scratcher.
Saturday's ONU-Capital game was poorly officiated - I give the CR about a 5; yesterday's Cap-Muskingum game was a -1. I never thought I'd miss high school officials as much as I did yesterday. Time to recertify . . . AR2 couldn't correct call OS sitting down and watching film; the CR was quoted after the game: "What's was all the fuss about the My Lai Massacre - I didn't see much wrong there?"
Please don't let this be a sign of things to come . . .
Kenyon escapes from Denison again. Thank goodness for Oliver Wynn who has saved Kenyon two games in a row and one of the few Lords who consistently has shown up and played well. Always hard to know watching on video, but game was chippy if not dirty. Denison came out very physical and had Kenyon on the back foot. Then soph Carmona shows frosh-level immaturity getting tossed around 20 minute mark so Lords play about 70 minutes down a man. Actually looked better with 10 to be honest. Some decisions continue to confound. One of the best mids who can actually make a play and put the ball where he wants it to go sits early. A couple of mids appear to accomplish little game after game. Anderson would be more effective. Wynn and the two CBs, Myers and Lowry, carrying this team. Also could not understand trying to kill time in the corner on corners with 4 minutes left. If Denison had scored OT would have been rough. A VERY important win especially given the predicament of being down a man, but this is very far from a top 5 team and probably not top 15 either. Still time to get and look better but not a lot of time.
Watching the Kenyon-Denison game in person, and just being a soccer parent, not a player, I'd agree it was a physical game, a lot of emotion on the field (and in the stands). Two very different halves, Kenyon had a red in the first half, Denison had one late in the second half. Quite a number of yellows all around, it seemed.
Several teams took care of business this week - OWU, DePauw, Kenyon, Wabash, PSU-Behrand and Geneva all winning 2 games. Hanover loses a heart-breaker with 2 minutes left at Transy - had the better of play for most of the game. ONU concedes a goal off a set piece - Donkey Touch warned us about that weakness - but no shame in a draw to a resurgent John Carroll. JCU reminds me of Capital last year - very tough preseason followed by a strong conference performance. Capital coming off an emotional week as a friend of some teammates passed away. Conceded three goals at Muskingum and could not score against Mt Union. Mt Union should literally have never gotten off the bus -just park it on the field. Played the exact same game as they did against ONU - I suppose if getting a point is their objective - yay for that. Never really attempted to attack the entire game.
PSU-Behrand finishes the season with games against Medaille and LaRoche - the top three teams in that conference. Winning those and taking care of the conference tournament will seal the bid for them.
Kenyon and Wabash should get two more wins each this week - never count chickens . . . but they should barring a Mt Union game plan by their opponents. OWU and DePauw on Wednesday is a juicy match-up; OWU then has Oberlin at home on Saturday.
Thomas More has two statement games against Grove City and Geneva this weekend - the GCC game at home, Geneva away. TM enjoys a physical contest and I imagine the Geneva game will be a foulfest with many cards as was the game this weekend at Westminster.
CMU gets a break from UAA play this week with just one non-conference game home against LaRoche - and then 9 Days off!!!
The draws for Capital and ONU this week seemed to be more harmful than the draw against one another - Cap dropping over 20 places on Massey - but with many teams dropping points this week I think they keep their regional places:
ONU, Kenyon, Capital, OWU, PSU-B - the next 5 in no order: CMU, DePauw, Wabash, Geneva and Hanover - although JCU might jump into the 10 spot.
Totally missed the boat on Oberlin - an oversight on my part. But to remain at #2 over Kenyon is nuts. OWU has a monster week that if they go 2-0 they are top 4. The excessive love for the UAA keeps CMU in the top 5 after going 0-1-1 this week. DePauw and Wabash do not get into the top 10 for at least one more week - Wabash for likely to make it next week - not surprised that JCU made it.
For tomorrow's rankings - SOS spells SOS for Capital - 6th to 8th at best. Kenyon "should" be #1, closely followed by ONU. Oberlin's schedule gets them 3rd - at least for this week, with CMU and OWU 4 and 5. Cap 6, DePauw/Wabash/Hanover fighting for 7-8.
And Oberlin gets its revenge!
Kenyon comes in at #6 after scheduling most games away still suffers with SoS because almost every team they've played has underperformed record-wise, including CWRU and DPU that beat them. All that effort and only .528. That said, Hanover is above them with only marginally higher SoS, as well as DePauw with only marginally higher SoS.
Can't argue with ONU at #1 and wouldn't even argue with Oberlin at #2 given .561 SoS, but also behind OWU (.556 or close to that with almost all home games and not really a daunting schedule but benefitting from Capital record, Calvin, Hanover), and then DePauw and Hanover.
And Capital doesn't get ranked at all with low SoS.
Kenyon's SoS actually will dip this week more with home conference games with Hiram and Allegheny, and the next week a wash or more slippage with OWU at home and OWU's less than perfect record, and then a modest bump away at Wabash. Any home games in the NCAC tourney won't help so no reason to think right now that Kenyon's SoS will be any higher than last year even with a serious flip of the schedule to cover for SoS. Heidelberg underperformed, Thomas More seriously underperformed, CWRU is stuck on 4 wins with only rough games remaining, DePauw has average record for them so far, Denison not winning, Catholic and Frostburg with bad records, and on and on. Only bump in entire schedule is Oberlin away. Kenyon may have to win out or get to conference final at least. What might help is that only really stellar SoS in the region belongs to CWRU and they won't be in the way.
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 19, 2016, 03:25:00 PM
And Oberlin gets its revenge!
Kenyon comes in at #6 after scheduling most games away still suffers with SoS because almost every team they've played has underperformed record-wise, including CWRU and DPU that beat them. All that effort and only .528. That said, Hanover is above them with only marginally higher SoS, as well as DePauw with only marginally higher SoS.
Can't argue with ONU at #1 and wouldn't even argue with Oberlin at #2 given .561 SoS, but also behind OWU (.556 or close to that with almost all home games and not really a daunting schedule but benefitting from Capital record, Calvin, Hanover), and then DePauw and Hanover.
And Capital doesn't get ranked at all with low SoS.
I roughly calculate Capital around 11th. I was surprised SOS was that high at .500! They can only take care of what's left in front of them and hope some of the underperformers get their act together and win a game or two.
Wabash, ONU and Kenyon get through the week with 2-0 records, CMU with the one game against LaRoche, Hanover with 2-0 attainable. Oberlin, DePauw and OWU have great matches against one another. Capital plays two teams with winning records for once - let's see what they do . . .
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...
We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card. This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule. Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.
Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc... Ouch.
Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either. When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS.
Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.
Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...
We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card. This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule. Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.
Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc... Ouch.
Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either. When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS.
Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.
Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.
Cupcake . . . ONU's preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS - Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.
OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 19, 2016, 09:39:17 PM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...
We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card. This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule. Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.
Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc... Ouch.
Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either. When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS.
Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.
Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.
Cupcake . . . ONU's preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS - Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.
OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.
Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.
However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from. In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.
I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer"
EXPECTED schedule for ONU. But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.
So I actually dug into it a little.
Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment. I obviously agree with that. There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win. Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season. Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor. Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games. Still have to play them.
What's left that you can control? Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.
Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:
Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8
Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons: Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16
When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS. Not so for team B.
Can you guess who is who yet?
Apologies to Oberlin. Coach New is not on the GL cmte this year. CWRU coach is the chair (strong ties to OWU), and also Hanover and Wabash coaches. Also the Capital coach, so Capital has representation on the cmte.
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 20, 2016, 10:25:04 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 19, 2016, 09:39:17 PM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...
We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card. This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule. Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.
Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc... Ouch.
Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either. When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS.
Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.
Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.
Cupcake . . . ONU's preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS - Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.
OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.
Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.
However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from. In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.
I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer" EXPECTED schedule for ONU. But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.
So I actually dug into it a little.
Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment. I obviously agree with that. There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win. Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season. Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor. Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games. Still have to play them.
What's left that you can control? Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.
Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:
Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8
Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16
When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS. Not so for team B.
Can you guess who is who yet?
All good. I misunderstood the comment about Capital's schedule - sorry! "On paper" - preseason - I thought 6-3 would have been an outstanding record - especially since they were 2-7 in the 2015 preseason. NCAC - wasn't Kenyon something like 8th in the first regional rankings last year? And Kenyon was top 5 in the NSCAA polls at the time.
Removing teams with strong SOS but with losing records I came up with this list of candidates - sorted by SOS. As NCAC has been commenting about this in the National thread - SOS
IS the deciding variable for rankings (bolded teams ranked). Interesting for Rose-Hulman - if they win out - with Mt St Joe and Hanover yet to play - they would easily be ranked ahead of teams like Capital.
Institution
| win-loss pct
| win-loss record
| In-Division SOS (weighted OWP-OOWP)
|
Overall
WL Pct |
Oberlin
|
( 0.821) | 11-2-1
|
0.561 |
11-2-1
( 0.821) |
DePauw
|
( 0.708) | 8-3-1
|
0.56 |
8-3-2
( 0.692) |
Ohio Wesleyan
|
( 0.731) | 8-2-3
|
0.553 |
8-2-3
( 0.731) |
Ohio Northern
|
( 0.900) | 12-0-3
|
0.545 |
13-0-3
( 0.906) |
Hanover
|
( 0.769) | 10-3-0
|
0.543 |
11-3-0
( 0.786) |
Rose-Hulman
|
( 0.643) | 9-5-0
|
0.54 |
9-5-0
( 0.643) |
Wabash
|
( 0.643) | 8-4-2
|
0.54 |
8-4-2
( 0.643) |
Carnegie Mellon
|
( 0.769) | 9-2-2
|
0.531 |
9-2-2
( 0.769) |
Kenyon
|
( 0.846) | 11-2-0
|
0.528 |
11-2-0
( 0.846) |
Grove City
|
( 0.750) | 10-3-1
|
0.502 |
11-3-1
( 0.767) |
Capital
|
( 0.857) | 11-1-2
|
0.5 |
11-1-2
( 0.857) |
Geneva
|
( 0.750) | 10-3-1
|
0.494 |
10-3-1
( 0.750) |
Transylvania
|
( 0.731) | 8-2-3
|
0.493 |
8-2-3
( 0.731) |
Penn St.-Behrend
|
( 0.844) | 12-1-3
|
0.47 |
12-1-3
( 0.844) |
Medaille
|
( 0.714) | 9-3-2
|
0.458 |
9-3-2
( 0.714) |
Franciscan
|
( 0.700) | 10-4-1
|
0.405 |
10-4-1
( 0.700) |
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 20, 2016, 11:50:20 AM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 20, 2016, 10:25:04 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 19, 2016, 09:39:17 PM
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...
We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card. This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule. Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.
Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc... Ouch.
Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either. When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS.
Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.
Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.
Cupcake . . . ONU's preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS - Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.
OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.
Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.
However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from. In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.
I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer" EXPECTED schedule for ONU. But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.
So I actually dug into it a little.
Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment. I obviously agree with that. There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win. Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season. Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor. Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games. Still have to play them.
What's left that you can control? Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.
Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:
Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8
Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16
When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS. Not so for team B.
Can you guess who is who yet?
All good. I misunderstood the comment about Capital's schedule - sorry! "On paper" - preseason - I thought 6-3 would have been an outstanding record - especially since they were 2-7 in the 2015 preseason. NCAC - wasn't Kenyon something like 8th in the first regional rankings last year? And Kenyon was top 5 in the NSCAA polls at the time.
Removing teams with strong SOS but with losing records I came up with this list of candidates - sorted by SOS. As NCAC has been commenting about this in the National thread - SOS IS the deciding variable for rankings (bolded teams ranked). Interesting for Rose-Hulman - if they win out - with Mt St Joe and Hanover yet to play - they would easily be ranked ahead of teams like Capital.
Institution
| win-loss pct
| win-loss record
| In-Division SOS (weighted OWP-OOWP)
|
Overall
WL Pct |
Oberlin
|
( 0.821) | 11-2-1
|
0.561 |
11-2-1
( 0.821) |
DePauw
|
( 0.708) | 8-3-1
|
0.56 |
8-3-2
( 0.692) |
Ohio Wesleyan
|
( 0.731) | 8-2-3
|
0.553 |
8-2-3
( 0.731) |
Ohio Northern
|
( 0.900) | 12-0-3
|
0.545 |
13-0-3
( 0.906) |
Hanover
|
( 0.769) | 10-3-0
|
0.543 |
11-3-0
( 0.786) |
Rose-Hulman
|
( 0.643) | 9-5-0
|
0.54 |
9-5-0
( 0.643) |
Wabash
|
( 0.643) | 8-4-2
|
0.54 |
8-4-2
( 0.643) |
Carnegie Mellon
|
( 0.769) | 9-2-2
|
0.531 |
9-2-2
( 0.769) |
Kenyon
|
( 0.846) | 11-2-0
|
0.528 |
11-2-0
( 0.846) |
Grove City
|
( 0.750) | 10-3-1
|
0.502 |
11-3-1
( 0.767) |
Capital
|
( 0.857) | 11-1-2
|
0.5 |
11-1-2
( 0.857) |
Geneva
|
( 0.750) | 10-3-1
|
0.494 |
10-3-1
( 0.750) |
Transylvania
|
( 0.731) | 8-2-3
|
0.493 |
8-2-3
( 0.731) |
Penn St.-Behrend
|
( 0.844) | 12-1-3
|
0.47 |
12-1-3
( 0.844) |
Medaille
|
( 0.714) | 9-3-2
|
0.458 |
9-3-2
( 0.714) |
Franciscan
|
( 0.700) | 10-4-1
|
0.405 |
10-4-1
( 0.700) |
Re: Rose-Hulman.... right. Which is stupid. Thus my hope for the Crusaders to get the AQ and a bit of justice to "Cap" off what has already been a fine season.
Rose-Hulman may be ahead of Capital if they win out, but would it get them in the rankings? And high enough to be selected for an at-large berth? I'm not seeing a Pool C berth in Rose-Hulman's future with that moderate SOS and 5 losses already. Capital has little chance at an at-large berth regardless of Rose-Hulman.
Domino, I might be slightly off on this, but not by much. I think Kenyon was ranked 8th regionally while ranked #1 nationally in BOTH polls last year. Maybe they were #2 but they were #1 for several weeks. In the 2nd regional poll they only moved up to like #7 and maybe only #5 or so in the 3rd poll.
I took some flak on this last year, with the response to Kenyon's SoS last year being that the coach didn't plan properly to ensure a decent SoS. I had been slow to catch on to the whole SoS deal, but I tried to show there were some real arbitrary and factors one could not account for. At any rate, even if I was 100% wrong, Kenyon this year DID try to fix the problem by going on the road for most of the pre-conf schedule, putting CWRU and TMC on as away games, and then only having 1 home game beyond the mandatory conference home games. And yet they are no better off. I think the Haverford example is great one because almost everyone loves Haverford and if memory serves some suggested over the summer or as the season was starting that Haverford might end up with one of the very highest SoS's in the nation. And there the 'Fords are sitting at .533.
I will concede this much. While I don't think one can account for what happens in any single year with unforeseeable results, I will credit the programs who have a shown a pattern of consistently high SoS (e.g. Brandeis, Rochester, Chicago, Amherst, etc). So yes, you can schedule for a pattern of results over the years but that doesn't mean that will hold for any single year. Amazingly it's possible Kenyon could end up with an even lower SoS than last year, and as I noted earlier having home conference playoff games (well-earned) actually hurts the SoS.
As an aside the NCAC race seems to be much tighter than most years with Kenyon, Oberlin, DPU, OWU and Wabash fighting for 4 spots. No one is safe yet. For example, I think Kenyon could be out if they lose to OWU and Wabash. OWU could potentially be out if they lose to Oberlin Saturday. And the DPU vs Wabash clash for the little brown jug or whatever it is also will be crucial.
I've seen some incredibly poor decisions by goalkeepers this year - excessively agressive not only leaving the 6 but the 18. Add today's debacle by Thomas More with 6 minutes to go - 1-0 Grove City.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 20, 2016, 01:06:32 PM
Rose-Hulman may be ahead of Capital if they win out, but would it get them in the rankings? And high enough to be selected for an at-large berth? I'm not seeing a Pool C berth in Rose-Hulman's future with that moderate SOS and 5 losses already. Capital has little chance at an at-large berth regardless of Rose-Hulman.
Agreed on both counts. Neither has a path to a pool C at this point. I think Domino's point was that Rose could be farther up the list, albeit both well on the outside looking in. I don't want to speak for him, but that particular comparison, for me, once again illustrates the occasional (regular?) silliness that comes with the system.
I don't have a better proposal, it's clear that something has to account for making sure that say, 2016 Morrisville State... is not deemed more deserving than say... 2016 Babson.
To the point NCAC NE is making regarding Kenyon and their "on-paper" upgrade between 2015 and 2016 non conference schedule... indeed, it's pretty striking that they could end up with a lower SoS this year.
I did the same quick calculation I did earlier when comparing ONU and CAP's non conference schedule making...
For 2016 - Kenyon scheduled non conference teams with a combined w% over the prior 4 seasons at .565.... in 2015, that figure was .475. Huge upgrade, and they have to play conference games in the NCAC.
So for the stuff a coach can control with non conference schedule - which NCAC NE recalls the crowd was more than willing to point out to him last year re: Kenyon... we can make the following comparison:
EXPECTED strength of Non-Conference schedule, based on opp combined w% 4 prior seasons:
Capital 2016 - .588
Kenyon 2016 - .565
Kenyon 2015 - .475 (widely panned, and punished in regional rankings for low
ACTUAL SoS, yet turns out they really were pretty good :))
ONU 2016 - .445!!!
That is what strikes me the most, how remarkably fortunate ONU is to have a current SoS at .545 despite having given a blemish to all of their opponents... and how remarkably unfortunate Capital is to be sitting at .500... compared to what each could have expected looking at the schedule in August, when both have to play the same OAC slate.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 20, 2016, 02:58:58 PM
I've seen some incredibly poor decisions by goalkeepers this year - excessively agressive not only leaving the 6 but the 18. Add today's debacle by Thomas More with 6 minutes to go - 1-0 Grove City.
And an audible groan can be heard coming from Bexley and Gambier!
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 20, 2016, 03:04:52 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 20, 2016, 01:06:32 PM
Rose-Hulman may be ahead of Capital if they win out, but would it get them in the rankings? And high enough to be selected for an at-large berth? I'm not seeing a Pool C berth in Rose-Hulman's future with that moderate SOS and 5 losses already. Capital has little chance at an at-large berth regardless of Rose-Hulman.
Agreed on both counts. Neither has a path to a pool C at this point. I think Domino's point was that Rose could be farther up the list, albeit both well on the outside looking in. I don't want to speak for him, but that particular comparison, for me, once again illustrates the occasional (regular?) silliness that comes with the system.
I don't have a better proposal, it's clear that something has to account for making sure that say, 2016 Morrisville State... is not deemed more deserving than say... 2016 Babson.
To the point NCAC NE is making regarding Kenyon and their "on-paper" upgrade between 2015 and 2016 non conference schedule... indeed, it's pretty striking that they could end up with a lower SoS this year.
I did the same quick calculation I did earlier when comparing ONU and CAP's non conference schedule making...
For 2016 - Kenyon scheduled non conference teams with a combined w% over the prior 4 seasons at .565.... in 2015, that figure was .475. Huge upgrade, and they have to play conference games in the NCAC.
So for the stuff a coach can control with non conference schedule - which NCAC NE recalls the crowd was more than willing to point out to him last year re: Kenyon... we can make the following comparison:
EXPECTED strength of Non-Conference schedule, based on opp combined w% 4 prior seasons:
Capital 2016 - .588
Kenyon 2016 - .565
Kenyon 2015 - .475 (widely panned, and punished in regional rankings for low ACTUAL SoS, yet turns out they really were pretty good :))
ONU 2016 - .445!!!
That is what strikes me the most, how remarkably fortunate ONU is to have a current SoS at .545 despite having given a blemish to all of their opponents... and how remarkably unfortunate Capital is to be sitting at .500... compared to what each could have expected looking at the schedule in August, when both have to play the same OAC slate.
Regarding Rose-Hulman versus Capital, given how much the committee seems to weigh SOS, it's very possible they'd have RHU above Capital if they went deeper with their rankings, but I'm not so sure. The committee also very much likes Record-vs-Ranked, and especially Wins-vs-Ranked. RHU is looking at a 0-2-0 or 0-3-0 RvR while Capital is looking at a 1-1-1 RvR with a win over OWU and a tie against ONU. So Capital's much superior WLT% combined with a better RvR that includes a win and a tie could very well compensate for the inferior SOS in the eyes of the committee. I am not ready to assume RHU would be ahead of Capital just because the the difference in SOS.
However, the larger points about SOS (1) being unpredictable and (2) its calculation (especially with the home/away multipliers) not always accurately gauging the strength of schedules are points I have been making for years. SOS should not be weighted so heavily given these factors. And since their introduction, I have been saying that the home and away multipliers are way too large.
(The committee has finally become convinced of that as well, and the modifiers will be completely scrapped starting next year. They were looking at tweaking the modifiers or coming up with a new way to factor in home and away, but in the end didn't find anything that seemed satisfactory so there will be none come next year. Why they couldn't have reached that conclusion in time for removing them this year, I don't know.)Results vs. Ranked is even flawed if blindly used because their can be a huge difference between beating the regional #1 team and the regional #8 team. Heck, a close, competitive loss to the #1 team may prove a team's credentials more than beating the #8 team in some instances.
I get the impression that the NCAA seems to place more value on having some "objective" (i.e numerical/quantifiable) justification for their rankings/selections than on actually selecting the best/most deserving teams. That is, rather than have to defend their picks with a reasoned argument (that may include some subjectivity/judgement/discernment), they prefer to be able to fall back on the raw numbers (SOS, RvR, etc.). If you don't like the committee's rankings/selections, it's not their fault, it's the system/guidelines/established criteria that are to blame.
I love all the data, and it should inform the selection/ranking process. But SOS and RvR, given their flaws, seem to be weighted too much when they should be used a bit more discerningly. My opinion.
Domino, DonkeyTouch and anyone else interested...
I did a little research, so here's Kenyon's regional ranks from last year and place in the D3soccer poll at the time of each, along with SoS at each point which were even worse than I remembered. As I recall now they were projected to get up to .520 in the secret 4th week regional rankings.
1st regional -- #7 -- 12-1 -- SoS .494 -- D3 rank: #3
2nd regional -- #7 -- 13-1 -- SoS .489 -- D3 rank: #2
3rd regional -- #4 -- 15-1 -- SoS .510 -- D3 rank: #1 (last poll entering NCAA tournament)
The year before, 2014, in my biased view the best Kenyon team in at least the last 20 years, Kenyon was regionally ranked #1 all three weeks and were ranked #2 nationally in the D3soccer poll for at least the last two weeks of the season heading into the NCAA tourney. SoS's that year were .572, .569 and .544.
2016
NCAC VS OAC
12-12-4
Top 3
Kenyon 3-0
Oberlin 3-1-1
OWU 1-1-1
Wabash and Depauw 0-0-0
ONU 2-0-1
Cap 4-0
JCU 1-0
Top 3 vs Top 3
ONU 4 Oberlin 0. TABLEMAX
ONU 0. OWU 0
Cap 1 OWU 0
Yes these scores are ONLY from this year 2016
Yet Regional NCAA has 5/8 NCAC. OAC 1.
Endowments don't count. Results should.
Kenyon looked like most of the team had mono in a 4-2 win over a weak Allegheny team. Terrible passing, sloppy possession, bad defending and goalkeeping on set pieces. Hopefully was partly the field conditions. Game was 2-2 well into 2nd half. Overly reliant on our own set pieces pushing both centerbacks up on every chance off long and short free kicks, offensive throws and corners. That does generate offense but leaves a lot of room for counters for teams talented enough to take advantage. Kenyon right now would get crushed by Chicago, Rowan, etc.
Since I coached a lot of U8, I feel qualified to recommend putting Amolo at attacking mid where he can get more of the ball, along with Eudy, Carmona and Anderson who all can hold and possess and pass. I would bring in Jeon and Lee off the bench and maybe even put them up top and just keep running forwards in and out. Or they could try to provide a spark as subs in the midfield which also might help motivate them differently to play with more energy and laser focus. We need more control of the game out of the midfield and less reliance on the defenders providing key scoring.
Excellent game going on with Oberlin at OWU. Very even, very well played. Oberlin with more high quality chances and probably has deserved a goal. OWU got one from left back off a delayed opening. This is best Oberlin team I've ever seen. Everyone can possess the ball and the they do combinations the way OWU frequently has in the past. Really enjoy watching Oberlin play. Tough ask for Oberlin to come back on senior night at OWU in front of raucous crowd, but they sure don't panic or change how they play based on score. Good video and great crowd sound. One of the best venues and atmospheres in all of D3 at OWU. Can't beat that kind of tradition and alumni/family support on top of student body fans.
Well, the video was pretty good. Couldn't get out of the halftime feature of young woman who is an athlete and double major, and when finally did score was 2-0 OWU. Can't see Oberlin coming back from that. And now video is frozen at 36 min left. Very tight NCAC race. Could see a scenario where 3 teams end up 7-2 and OWU 4th even after winning tonight and beating Kenyon Tuesday.
Update: now 3-0. If Oberlin's game with ONU resembled this then that 4-0 result was deceptive. This was more like a 1 goal game than 3-0 and with all this momentum wouldn't surprise me if OWU gets 1 or 2 more.
Meanwhile, JCU appears to be hammering Capital....4-0 at 70 minutes.
Wow. JCU spanks Capital 5-0!!! Don't know what to make of either of these teams. JCU goes 3-5-1 in non-conference, but now 6-0-1 in the OAC. Capital's SOS may be rather low, but they beat Thomas More and Ohio Wesleyan, and then tied a Top 10 Ohio Northern, so at that point it was easy to figure they were for real, but since tying ONU they have had their hands full with a poor Muskingum and tied a mediocre Mount Union before beating Marietta 2-0.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 22, 2016, 09:54:39 PM
Wow. JCU spanks Capital 5-0!!! Don't know what to make of either of these teams. JCU goes 3-5-1 in non-conference, but now 6-0-1 in the OAC. Capital's SOS may be rather low, but they beat Thomas More and Ohio Wesleyan, and then tied a Top 10 Ohio Northern, so at that point it was easy to figure they were for real, but since tying ONU they have had their hands full with a poor Muskingum and tied a mediocre Mount Union before beating Marietta 2-0.
Interesting that on the day Ryan writes a great piece about mental toughness - JCU displays it in spades while Capital probably should have stayed on the bus. I've seen both these teams several times this year - not typical performances for either. From the Senior Night ceremony through the final whistle JCU dominated - every aspect of the game, every player, every position. Their will to win never wavered; Capital's will to win never appeared.
Fascinating race in the NCAC...
With just one week (two games) to go, not a single team out of the top 5 is safe. Wonder when the last time that happened.
Just based on schedule, you would think Oberlin is in the safest (if not the best) shape. They have Hiram away and Denison at home. This is the kind of spot where a surprise draw could be deadly. Denison will remember Oberlin knocking them out on the last day the year before.
Kenyon is currently in first place but has tough remaining games with OWU at home and then a surging Wabash on the road. Lose both or even lose and draw, and the Lords could/would be done.
Wabash, currently in second place, also has very tough closing games, with DePauw and Kenyon, although they do get both of those at home at Mud Hollow.
DePauw has the key game with Wabash and then Allegheny at home. They also have a key tie-breaker with both Kenyon and OWU. The winner of DPU-Wabash will be golden and the loser could be in trouble. BIG game in Indiana.
OWU closes with Kenyon away (and usually home field hasn't meant a lot with these two teams) and Hiram. I'm not 100% sure, but I think they must win the Kenyon game as I'm not sure a draw will be enough to get them in. BIG game in Ohio. Hiram at home should be no problem.
In addition to the race in the NCAC there are several other great final week conference match-ups in the Great Lakes region:
My take on the NCAC final week: I think Wabash drops two and finishes out of the NCAC playoffs; Kenyon and DePauw finish 1-2 with 2 wins this week. Wabash has won 4 straight - not by convincing margins against the lower half of the NCAC. They will have to dig deep to win both games this week. I have questions about Oberlin's defense and I think they draw one - if not two matches this week. If they go 1-0-1 they finish third ahead of OWU; if they draw 2 then they finished tied with OWU at 5-2-2.
The AMCC serves up a perfect match for the season finale tomorrow night as 7-0-1 PSU-Behrand hosts 7-0-1 Medaille. Gotta love the schedule makers! The SOS for these two teams is below .500 and even with two wins each last week - probably got weaker. This is a one bid league and they most likely will meet again in the conference championship on Nov 5th.
OAC - ONU finishes at 7-0-2; JCU dominating performance against Capital has them in the driver's seat - win out and they are the #1 seed with an 8-0-1. But as Lee Corso might say: "Not so fast!" JCU is at the home of the Parked Bus tomorrow night: Mt Union. Mt. Union lost to ONU 1-0 - took ONU over 80 minutes to score; and they tied Capital 0-0. JCU needs to stay focused after that win Saturday and not give into frustration that Mt Union will assuredly bring. Capital may go 2-0, may go 0-0-2 - but I expect they will do enough this week to finish 3rd. After that it gets very interesting. Mt. Union, Otterbein, Marietta and Heidelberg all have a scenario in which each could achieve a 4-4-1 record. Marietta at Otterbein tomorrow night should be a battle; Otterbein finishes at home on Saturday vs Mt. Union. Otterbein lost both of these home match-ups last year. Win both and they are in.
Rose-Hulman and Hanover are headed for a major collision on Saturday - winner takes the conference IF Hanover doesn't stumble at Mt. St. Joe's on Wednesday. At 9-4-3 Mt. St. Joe's won't be a pushover. But if Rose and Hanover take care of business midweek they promise to provide a classic on Sat evening.
Geneva finishes the PRAC undefeated with an 8-0 record; Grove City should finish 7-1-1. Thomas More - dropping both must-win matches last week vs GCC and Geneva "SHOULD" win two this week and claim 3rd. I think Westminister does enough this week to claim fourth. Sets up first round games with Geneva hosting Westminster and GCC hosting Thomas More.
As far as the next regional rankings: many of the ranked teams went 2-0 last week - but most against weaker competition. Without doing all the math - OWU looks like the only previously ranked team to increase in SOS. I think JCU may make into the top 8 - last week's SOS of .554, two wins against Otterbein (.537) and Capital (.5) - will be fun to discuss Wednesday as to the impact of SOS versus previously ranked teams going 2-0 and possibly failing out of the top 8. Rose-Hulman - now at 11-5 and an SOS of .54 last week - have two wins over sub .500 opponents - need that victory over Hanover on Sat.
Kenyon got a criticai win today over OWU. Easily the best overall performance of the year and more impressive because there was significant pressure on the Lords against an archrival that they knew was fully capable of beating them. Their collective backs were against the wall. It wasn't perfect and I wish they could have generated a few more hard shots on goal, but they seemed to have the right intensity and didn't really allow OWU to get into a flow or comfort zone. Lee had his best game of the season. He and Jeon are still struggling a bit with final third product, but they were running hard, focused, and looked stuck in. Myers and Lowry at the CB positions were huge, and Wynn had another all around good game. Eudy and Glassman were good. Amolo played very well and showed his quality and Carmona was superb. Koval and Stengel gave them great minutes up top off the bench. Nobody on this team is good enough to mail it in and hopefully they are finally learning the level of intensity/focus they need to be close to what they hoped to be. When that is there as a whole group playing for each other they are a very good team.
I caught the tail end of Wabash and DePauw. Wabash was under siege for at least the last 12-15 minutes and I'm not sure how DPU didn't get one in. Looked like the ball skipped right in front of the goal several times with DPU right there but somehow the ball stayed out. Wabash fought them off like crazy and punched a playoff ticket. Time to give the Wabash coach a ton of credit. I like how he gives a comment after every game win or lose, he obviously has embraced the program, loves his kids, and the results are showing. Wabash has a chance to win the conference Saturday.
Didn't know that this is Wabash's first win over DPU in 17 years.
Here is the 40 yard strike that unfortunately wasn't well-captured by videography...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18FjRNtNSgI
Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row. Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time. It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.
I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership. Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 28, 2016, 10:37:00 AM
Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row. Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time. It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.
I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership. Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.
Personally, since I enjoy tactics I found his pressing articles the best but well done and thank you for doing all these. You have a mind of a good young coach who should be coaching in college and teaching these kids the right way to play the game. I have no idea what your career is but to give back to the game what it has given you would be fantastic especially with such a bright young mind..
On a more pessimistic note I took the Substitution article to be a nice subtle jab at Messiah and all those Championships won by doing exactly what you were complaining about.
Probably could use another thread to respond to columns and such.
OWU has a history of substituting as frequently and liberally as any other school I am aware of this side of Loras, so I kind of doubt there is an argument directed at Messiah. That said, I wholeheartedly disagree especially at the D3 level and with the whole D3 "mission" in mind. I don't think D3 is supposed to or should mirror La Liga. Major limitations on subbing is great is you are a starter but I think flies in the face of greater participation. in some ways the two themes of the column, I think unintended, kind of contradict one another. Playing time is a huge issue and there can be razor thin differences between players 8 thru 11 and 12 thur 15 and again between 12 thru 15 and 16 thru 19/20 on many good D3 teams. I am all for team unity and goals and individual sacrifice, but let's be realistic. PLAYING is a big deal, especially for D3 kids putting in a ton of time and personal commitment each and every year, waiting their turn, perceiving oneself to be as good as or better than kids playing ahead of you, etc, etc. Certainly no simplistic answers here. At any rate, playing time for more kids would be seriously hampered by major restrictions on substitutions.
And I can definitely relate to how difficult it is to be a parent/brother/relative/friend/partner to a kid who you know is a great kid, who you know will give 110%, who "deserves" a shot, etc, etc, etc. I'm sure it's not easy for the coaches either. The decisions I'm sure often can be razor thin for them as well and coaches who have overall happy teams are doing something right and I'd love to know the key ingredients to that. There are also differences in how coaches handle "ties" between upperclassmen and frosh, with some giving the close call to the upperclassmen and some falling in love with the new kids. Interesting but very complex issues IMO.
I am in an interesting position being a Messiah fan through and through, but also fully supporting more limited substitution rules for college soccer, at least until the past few years when my stance has softened a bit. I'm not going to delve into my opinions before and now in this post, but rather just state some reactions/comments to Ryan's piece in the context of how Messiah uses subs.
I read his critiques and some of them I simultaneously was partially agreeing while also questioning if the negative effect he was proclaiming was really that bad in reality.
For example, though Messiah uses more subs than most teams, it does not result in more stoppages of play for substitutions because they send them in in groups of 4 to 6 players. So while one team subs in a player or two, Messiah sends in four or five. Just one stoppage, though perhaps a little longer in duration.
As to it breaking up the flow of play, while that may be true, in the great majority of Messiah's games over the past decade plus, Messiah's opponents would have been the team having the most to gain from a break in the flow of the game, not Messiah. Messiah certainly did not and does not maximize their substitutions as a way of breaking the flow of play.
Regarding lowering the quality of play, given the strength and depth of Messiah's bench, their play usually didn't drop off that much and was often still above many other teams' starting unit. If anything, it allowed their starters to play at a higher level each minute they were on the field right up to the end of the game given they got extended rest each half and weren't really tiring at all.
Also, Messiah never really used their extensive substitutions to emphasis a high pressing approach to the extent of perhaps Loras in recent years. Messiah was still all about maintaining possession and having a balance of patience and urgency in attack. That is, while they would want to win the ball back as quickly as possible, the Falcons' emphasis was much more on not losing possession in the first place compared to teams that intentfully took more risks going forward knowing they had the subs to be able to employ a high press everytime the ball was lost. Messiah has almost always been the fittest team on the field, and they have rarely been out-worked or out-hustled, but I don't think anyone would describe them as flying all over the field with no concern for fatigue.
Now, of course, Ryan's critiques need to be read in the context of D-III soccer as a whole, and Messiah does not represent the norm or average, so the above is NOT a criticism of or rebuttal to what Ryan wrote. Just some thoughts that ran through this Messiah fan's head as he read the piece.
Marietta scores in the 13th minute and holds on to beat ONU 1-0... just now went final. Shots were only 17-11 in ONU favor. 3 uncharacteristic yellows for ONU, probably frustration fouls as they saw their undefeated regular season slipping away.
Wow.
2 things... the goal was conceded on a restart - long throw in.... and the game was at Etta on the grass.
ONU won't have a pool C shot now.... big battle coming up in the OAC tournament for that AQ!
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 28, 2016, 05:30:07 PM
Marietta scores in the 13th minute and holds on to beat ONU 1-0... just now went final. Shots were only 17-11 in ONU favor. 3 uncharacteristic yellows for ONU, probably frustration fouls as they saw their undefeated regular season slipping away.
Wow.
2 things... the goal was conceded on a restart - long throw in.... and the game was at Etta on the grass.
ONU won't have a pool C shot now.... big battle coming up in the OAC tournament for that AQ!
Crappiest video feed ever - but I thought the goal came from a long kick over the back line? There's that grass field again - and I'm being generous calling that a grass field. But congrats to Marietta and my son's HS teammate Tyler Sholl - Marietta keeper
I think it's premature to count ONU out for a Pool C. Sur a loss isn't helpful but the record is still stellar. The SoS was going to be an issue whether they had a loss or not. It would be truly unfair for a team like ONU to not receive a bid. This isn't some obscure team with a great record. By the eye test they played a decent schedule (Oberlin, OWU, CWRU). And the real kicker which I'm not sure has really been underscored in these SoS discussions is that the very teams that might get a bid over ONU are teams that got SoS-rich in good measure off of ONU! SO it's not just the SoS but the double and triple unintended effects of SoS. Oberlin and OWU benefited greatly from playing ONU. Either or both of those teams getting a bid over ONU would just seem like a travesty. The other scenario of course is that if ONU needs and gets a Pool C someone else will be knocked out.
CMU will be interesting. They are getting some good SoS medicine with Chicago and Wash U coming to town which will then be partially mitigated by finishing at home with CWRU. If CMU can go 2-1 in the last 3 they may jump over a few teams. If they win all 3 they might jump to #1 regionally.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 28, 2016, 12:54:04 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 28, 2016, 10:37:00 AM
Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row. Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time. It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.
I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership. Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.
Personally, since I enjoy tactics I found his pressing articles the best but well done and thank you for doing all these. You have a mind of a good young coach who should be coaching in college and teaching these kids the right way to play the game. I have no idea what your career is but to give back to the game what it has given you would be fantastic especially with such a bright young mind..
On a more pessimistic note I took the Substitution article to be a nice subtle jab at Messiah and all those Championships won by doing exactly what you were complaining about.
I'm baffled why you say this, Mr. Right. I just do not see Ryan's points being aimed at the particular way in which Messiah uses the liberal substitution rule. Let me be specific about a few of them. I'll quote Ryan's points verbatim and put replies under each.
(1) I'm a soccer purist; I prefer to see passes on the ground, building from the back, and goals from the run of play. I disdain strategies based on long throw-ins and free kicks, and I dislike kickball. I can't deny the effectiveness of those tactics, but they are becoming more and more widespread, and the substitution rules provide the foundation for that style of play.
Comment: I could have written Ryan's first two sentences myself, for his sentiments are precisely mine also. The first sentence amounts to a perfect description of what the Falcons try do to every time they step on the field, while opponents usually build their strategy around trying not to let them do it (rather than trying to do the same thing themselves and create a beautiful game to watch). I have literally never seen a Falcon team use the strategy described in the second sentence. Indeed, under Brandt it was rare even to see a quick counterattack, rather than a slow buildup against defensive pressure. McCarty is more willing to dump the occasional ball over an offside trap or use quick counters, but not that much more willing. No one who watches the Falcons regularly would imagine that this paragraph is a subtle dig at Messiah.
(2) In a normal game, teams and players can't press non-stop. Forwards and midfielders would need to sprint for 90 minutes, and it's almost impossible to defend with complete intensity for that long. That's why many games start slow and "open up" later on, as players tire and space is easier to find, especially in the second half. Teams that can't possess the ball are in an even tougher position, because it takes more energy, both mental and physical, to defend. So teams value possession and pick opportune moments to press, allowing games to ebb and flow and find a rhythm. You see fascinating tactical battles in every game, as teams fight for possession, adjust to defend when they lose it, and then either counter-attack quickly or build methodically once they gain possession. In the second half, players find more space and teams often counter-attack back and forth, allowing the game to crescendo as it reaches the final stages.
Comment: Actually this describes Messiah very well, except that the Falcons use mass substitution in the first half to achieve the kind of game Ryan describes as "normal," particularly in this sentence: " You see fascinating tactical battles in every game, as teams fight for possession, adjust to defend when they lose it, and then either counter-attack quickly or build methodically once they gain possession." The methodical build is of course the favored option in Grantham. However, the Falcons usually are more effective playing a "normal" game in the second half, precisely b/c they clear the bench in the first half. Since their second team can usually play the opponents' first team on even terms, the opponents are reluctant to follow suit with mass substitution. So, the starters run out of gas early in the second half, which creates the opportunity for Messiah to play a "normal" game. I don't think Ryan had that in mind here, but that's what Messiah usually does. So, for them (at least), mass substitution leads to beautiful soccer, not to nonstop pressing.
(3) Rather than rhythm, the college game is chaos. Any team—even one that's outmatched or unable to maintain possession—can press non-stop. While players can't run for 90 minutes straight, they can run for 25, take a break, and then do it again. They can defend without worrying about fatigue. Instead of space opening up in the 60th or 75th minute to encourage attacks, teams just bring in a fresh wave of subs. College players run more in games than professionals for this very reason. They don't learn how to conserve energy, or how to use space, they just fly around the field. It can be exhilarating at times, don't get me wrong, but more often than not it results in a game that's painful to watch.
Comment: Again, no one who watches the Falcons regularly would associate this description with their style of play. I don't think Ryan had Messiah in mind either. Actually he might have Loras in mind here--and I am not taking a shot at Loras, which is one of the very best programs in D3. I simply notice that they do tend to press non-stop, whereas the Falcons don't. Messiah would much rather possess than pursue, and consequently they don't often score directly off turnovers.
Overall comment: The Falcons also substitute so liberally b/c they do want to give PT to a sizeable roster. Most players will get at least 15-20 minutes in most games, although in some cases the starters will play all or most of the first half--that usually happens only in tight games against top opponents. Why not? Isn't college athletics supposed to be about participation? Why keep on your roster players who realistically won't get any PT? Messiah doesn't bring in a dozen new players every year (some teams have done that, but I won't point fingers at specific teams). Once McCarty has the number he wants, other players who still want to come to Messiah are turned away--yes, that happens, and those players can be awfully good. As I've said a few times, Messiah doesn't recruit like most other teams: players approach Messiah, rather than the other way around. So, once that number is reached, there's no room for more.
That's why I'm puzzled by your inference, Mr. Right. I don't want to get into a protracted argument about this, but I always learn much from your posts and I'll be sure to read any replies you care to make.
And on cue CMU up 3-0 on Wash U while Chicago and CWRU still tied.
Congrats to CWRU for really showing up and putting the first blemish on Chicago. Watched the last 30 or so minutes and CWRU seemed to give great effort and were also trying to really play, too.
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 28, 2016, 10:17:30 PM
Congrats to CWRU for really showing up and putting the first blemish on Chicago. Watched the last 30 or so minutes and CWRU seemed to give great effort and were also trying to really play, too.
To be fair, UChicago dominated the stats, hit the post 3 times and Case had to make 2 team saves. Now the Maroons just have to turn the page and bring their top form to CMU on Sunday.
Ya know, overall, this has been an up and down year for CWRU. That said, it has been nice to see us beat then #2 Kenyon and tie #1 Chicago.
Quote from: DagarmanSpartan on October 29, 2016, 01:48:11 AM
Ya know, overall, this has been an up and down year for CWRU. That said, it has been nice to see us beat then #2 Kenyon and tie #1 Chicago.
Without looking at anyone's SOS #'s, just studying CWRU's schedule tells me a lot. They might have hadone of the hardest schedule's in the country and were in most games. I liked the in the little I saw of them last year but was not able to catch any of them this year. I will say the stats do show a UChicago domination but that is why we cannot always go by the stats.
Falconer,
I do not think he had any team in mind. I was half kidding and sorry to offend.
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 12, 2016, 07:17:53 AM
Got to see Wooster and Washington & Lee yesterday, Capital and Wittenberg. From what I've seen after two weeks - and I don't want to use the "Parity" word too soon - there are a lot of teams in the great lakes that are similarly built. With the exception of the Finlandia games at Otterbein and Capital (Finlandia a rebuilding program with 20? freshman - and every game but 2 or 3 on the road) this weekend every team was in the game until the end. In some games a bounce here and fortunate rebound there was the deciding variable.
Another observation: I don't think there are any super stand-out players on the teams I've seen. No POY candidates from this region. And that's not a bad thing as the sides are built with complementary players that seem to support one another. The weaknesses I observed in teams the past two years - these observations based mostly on NCAC and OAC programs - aren't as glaring, just as there aren't any players that - if they missed a game - would kill a team's chances to win. Talking with fans and parents at the games this year - all say similar things: "We have more depth this year", "There isn't that much of a drop-off when we sub".
I thought of this post I made earlier in the season - with respect to parity, deeper teams/benches and few - if any POY candidates in the Great Lakes. I think Kinkopf is more than worthy to be included in the top 10 in the country - his value to his team cannot be understated - even after yesterday's first loss of the season.
But Parity - I feel stronger about this statement than I did when I made it. Yes - there were some lopsided games - but a significant number of conference games were one goal affairs. Records belie the competitiveness of some teams: Case, Heidelberg, Mt Union, Dension (8 losses - all by one goal - 4 of which were 1-0 defeats) - for example. A bounce here, a bounce there . . .
Marietta is also a tough team - the difference between their record being three or more wins higher is a golazo at Denison or a couple of marking mistakes - and at this level, in games decided by one goal - you cannot afford even one failure to track a runner.
I expect we will see conference tournaments produce unlikely entrants into the NCAA tournament - which will prevent bubble Pool C teams from getting in. Thomas More (8 losses - 5 by 1-0 scores to DePauw, Geneva and Grove City in that group)?
Wishing all competitors well in the upcoming week's tournaments. Re-read Ryan's column on Mental Toughness - clip it out, laminate it and tuck it under your pillow at night. Do not dare whine about officiating come Sunday: games are 90 minutes long and I guarantee that for every mistake a referee makes there will be 5 mental mistakes made by your favorite team . . .
Kenyon grinds out a not pretty but still a win at Wabash and win the NCAC again. Myers with another game winner.
Shout out to Adam Chazin-Gray of Oberlin. Excellent right back for the Yeoman but also rocking a 3.98 in biochem. He's from Berkeley, CA so I'm gonna guess his parents are profs at Cal.
What happens with Hanover by the 4th week could impact things quite a bit. DePauw and OWU both hold ranked wins over Hanover.
I would expect Hanover to drop to to #7 or #8 this week and if they lose to Transy they might well drop out. And if they lost to RHIT in the final their RvR would drop from 1-2 to 1-4 IF RHIT cracks the rankings. RHIT and Wabash seem like the teams on the doorstep of getting ranked but there's no reason to believe anyone will drop out this week. John Carroll should stay and CMU should at a minimum jump Hanover.
OWU finishes the regular season 10-4-3 after a last second goal to defeat Hiram last night. I tried to watch the game but Hiram;s video was beyond bad.. OWU is most certainly on the bubble and were ranked #2 in the Great Lakes last week. However, they are surely to drop to maybe #4 after the Kenyon loss but with a 3-3-2 RvR and decent to good SOS they are on the right side of the bubble. Still, missing your conference tournament is not good but I would be willing to bet they continue to practice this week..
And of course the team that finished 4th in the NCAC, DePauw, is ranked #1 in GL.
IMO Great Lakes and New England are the two regions that are a chaotic mess. The other regions make immediate intuitive sense when you look at them with teams where most would assume they would be without going heavily into the numbers. The GL and NE cmtes have their work cut out for them.
General thoughts/comments since I've been unplugged for awhile:
(1) Thanks for the feedback on the article. No real target team in mind. Messiah and Loras provide the best case studies for teams using the rules as a competitive advantage, but I don't have anything against either program and I have no problem with teams using the rules to their benefit whenever possible.
(2) Kenyon-OWU thoughts. Kenyon was dominant, and put in the performance I expected to see all year. If they play like that they'll be tough to beat. Concerns are the same as previous years. First, Kenyon struggled to break down OWU in the run of play despite controlling the whole game. If Amolo isn't scoring or providing, they're heavily reliant on set pieces. That's not a terminal problem - Amherst won the title last year in that fashion - but peak Kenyon has Amolo being a little more dangerous than he's been for most of the season. Second, Kenyon switched off a bit in the last 20, allowing OWU more possession and a bunch of corners and set pieces that could have got them back into it. That's a problem for any team, not just Kenyon, but better teams (like OWU in the 2015 NCAC championship) might punish it. These are minor concerns, but they could make the difference between a Sweet 16 exit and a title, and I'm sure Kenyon is targeting the latter.
As for OWU, decent showing in the back but disappointing going forward. Kenyon pressed very well in midfield and OWU couldn't string anything together. They battled, but just couldn't get close.
(3) OWU has played like an inexperienced team. With the exception of the Kenyon game (and even that was only 2-0), they've had more than enough chances to win every game this year. If they'd beaten Washington and Lee (should've been up 4-0 at half) and DePauw (missed several sitters), they'd have five ranked wins and be a Pool C lock. But 26 goals in 17 games is not going to translate into a great season.
As for missing the NCAC tournament, it's a combination of blown chances and bad luck. OWU finished on 17 points, a number that would have made the top four in every single NCAC season since 1999, which is as far back as I could find records. In every season except 2003, 17 points would have been good enough for 3rd or higher. Still, nobody to blame except themselves, as they should have beaten Denison and DePauw. A result in either game puts them in the NCAC tourney, and wins in both puts them in second place.
On the NCAA front, it's hard to tell until we get Wednesday's rankings. Regardless of Hanover I'd expect OWU to be the third NCAC team, behind Kenyon and DePauw and ahead of Oberlin and (probably unranked) Wabash. When compared to Oberlin, OWU will have more ranked wins (2-1 or 3-1), higher SOS (Kenyon boost), and head-to-head edge. I doubt Wabash makes the rankings with only one ranked win and a poor SOS.
My guess: (1) DePauw (ranked wins and head-to-head over Kenyon) (2) Kenyon (3) OWU (4) Oberlin (5) Carnegie Mellon (6) Ohio Northern (7) Hanover (8) John Carroll
Hanover will come into play in Pool C, as a third ranked win might be necessary for OWU or DePauw to get in over teams from other regions. I'm not sure who replaces Hanover. Capital's SOS is too low, and the only other candidates are Wabash or Rose-Hulman. We have a bit of a three-way, as R-H beat Hanover who beat Wabash who beat R-H. Each team has one ranked win, and I believe Hanover will have the highest SOS. If you compare all three together, you probably give it to Hanover. If you drop Wabash first, then it might go to R-H with the head-to-head.
Bottom line, any NCAC team that doesn't win the automatic bid will be cheering hard for other conference favorites.
Heidelberg and Marietta about to get underway. Interesting - Heidelberg's keeper - Kress - has two red cards this season and I thought he was going to sit out the balance of the year. I believe a player receiving a 3rd RC in a year misses the entire next year.
Quote from: Domino1195 on October 31, 2016, 02:01:23 PM
Heidelberg and Marietta about to get underway. Interesting - Heidelberg's keeper - Kress - has two red cards this season and I thought he was going to sit out the balance of the year. I believe a player receiving a 3rd RC in a year misses the entire next year.
The pertinent section of the NCAA laws of the game Domino:
12.7 Ejections and Player Suspensions
12.7.1 A player(s), coach or bench personnel ejected from a game cannot
participate in the next regularly scheduled game, including postseason
games, or, if the offense occurs in the final game of the season, in the first
scheduled game of the next season. If the ejected individual(s) is a player
of record in the game at the time of the ejection, the player, who cannot
be replaced, shall leave the game and his/her team shall play short. Each
successive red card shall result in an additional one-game suspension. For
example, a second red card shall result in a two-game suspension,
a third red
card shall result in a three-game suspension, etc.
Just want to comment on RH's analysis of Kenyon above which I think is right on the money. I'm sure coaches in general (if they look at this site at all), who tend to be stubborn to a fault, aren't likely to be influenced by what anyone says here, but I find myself in complete agreement and who better to listen to than a very astute diehard alum/supporter of your biggest rival. Kenyon has shown a pattern of dominating games but not scoring from the run of play or getting the number of quality, dangerous chances one would expect given the possession advantage and amount of time spent in the other team's final 3rd. Never should have lost to CWRU who they let hang around and in several other games they should have won more comfortably. For a Kenyon-OWU game they did win fairly comfortably, but as RH correctly pointed out, they didn't completely put OWU away and left themselves susceptible to what happened last year when they controlled the game and were comfortably ahead 2-0 and then allowed 2 goals in literally the last 75-90 seconds. I don't think they have peaked yet, individually or collectively, and as long as they qualify for the tournament maybe that's a good thing if they can peak over the next couple of weeks.
I also think RH is absolutely correct about Amolo and his importance in the Kenyon attack. Tony doesn't have to score (and hopefully he knows that), but he must be very involved and make an impact on games. IMHO he needs to be on the field for more minutes. The forwards are coming out for the last 20 minutes of the first half and for close to a 20 minutes stretch in the middle of the second half. He needs to be out there 35-40 minutes a half, and one way to do that is to drop him into an attacking mid role when the substitute forwards come in. As I've commented before, he has the skill, strength and vision to hold on to the ball, attack the defense and make penetrating passes. He also might see more of the ball and feel more in control of how he is playing. As is, the Lords are giving the ball away too easily and cheaply in the midfield. The same type of loose turnovers are happening out of the midfield game after game.
Regardless of what happens going forward I will say that Amolo, Clougher, Glassman and the senior group as a whole have enjoyed a remarkable four year run. They injected dynamic talent their first two years and made a good, improving team nationally competitive, and they have carried that through in their last two years. One of the most important classes in Kenyon's history and I'm pulling for them to have a strong finish.
Reacting to Ryan and NCAC's comments:
- Run of play goals are going to become even more difficult to come by now that we are in the single elimination season.
- Set pieces will decide many games
- Direct play will become more in vogue. Get the ball deep and force defenders to make a mistake.
- There will be LOTS of 1-0 games. The Grind.
I saw both OAC games yesterday - both 1-0 double OT - both saw teams very organized defensively and waiting to create a counter-attack. Heck - the winning goals in both games were scored in the 106th minute.
As for controlling a game: my beloved Columbus Crew dominated time of possession for most of the year and won 8 of 34 games. I find many teams will allow an opponent to swing the ball around the back, in their defensive third, grabbing a breather and waiting to see what you can do. 11 defenders packed into 40 yards, plus 9 attackers = no space. It took Spain 116 minutes to score against Holland and they could play possession ball inside a shoe box.
I've believed that there has been parity all year long in the Great Lakes - especially when it come to defensive posture - and especially now. Dominant scorers will find it much more difficult to find space now that we are down to the top 4 teams per conference. You can throw away the W-L records - there are no more upsets to be had. It is execution and patience when two sides who'll play solid defense go against one-another.
Glorious day here in Ohio - although the Jeff Fox worthy crack about Ohio has been valid the past few days: "You might be from Ohio if you use your air conditioner and furnace in the same day." Day time highs in the low 70's - no rain for several days. Grass fields are a mess - see the Grove City - Thomas More game yesterday - a 5 yard pass had no chance of rolling with popping up. Players will need to raise their feet higher that normal to be prepared to settle an erratic hop.
Thomas More did enough to get into the final against Geneva. I feel for GCC but their season is most likely over. Bethany didn't trouble Geneva much last night - but the ONE time they pushed everyone up (on a corner) they conceded a counter-attack that resulted in the winning goal. Video was very good EXCEPT when the winning shot was taken!! It appears to have been delfected - keeper is moving to his left - video hiccups - and then you see the ball rolling slowly and painfully into the empty net (shot was from 25-30 yards). Based on what I saw last night I think a TM win is very possible. Geneva is organized in the back - but struggled to break down the packed-in Bethany defense. They played to a 1-0 result a week ago - I see a similar result on Saturday.
Kenyon overcame a very odd beginning today with Brown starting the 3rd line forwards for reasons unknown (since the first and second line forwards played later) and promptly going down 1-0 to DePauw in the first 8 minutes. Clougher had perhaps his best game of the season, preventing DePauw from going up 2-0 or even 3-0, and then he provided the assist to Amolo for a semi-breakaway that Amolo finished nicely by holding off the defender and then beating the keeper. Thereafter Kenyon was pretty much in control, going up 2-1 off a set piece header from CB Lowry. Then in the second half senior Josh Lee had arguably his best moment of brilliance since his goal freshmen year to put Kenyon ahead of Wheaton (Ill) in the round of 32 at Wheaton as he cut through a throng of DPU defenders and finished nicely. Outstanding,as Lee's goal created some separation and reduced the chances of DPU's Gonzalez winning the game on his own. If Lee plays really well that will be a big boost for Kenyon going forward. The Lords got another one for what turned out to be a fairly dominating 4-1 win. I give the team a ton of credit for coming through against OWU, away at Wabash and today versus DePauw as they knew they might well need all three given how the regional rankings were playing out. They should be safe now, having moved up to #3 this week, beating the #1 ranked team and adding a ranked win. Of course they should obviously try to go ahead and win the AQ with home field on Saturday, but I am sure there is some relief tonight in the metropolis of Gambier, OH.
I'll touch on the GL rankings in the national thread.
Only thought on the rankings is that Carnegie Mellon is not going to stay at 2nd. They're there because (1) highest SOS of ranked teams and (2) two ranked wins. But they have a home game against a below-0.500 Case Western, so OWU and maybe DePauw and Oberlin will catch them on SOS. They will also lose a ranked win next week because John Carroll dropped out. One ranked win will drop CMU below Kenyon and OWU for sure, and perhaps lower. The GL committee will be looking to get teams into the tournament, and I can't see CMU getting in with one ranked win and a 0.555 SOS.
CMU runs a double-edged sword with the schedule. They rarely schedule top Great Lakes teams, so they don't have to deal with a head-to-head problem with anyone. On the other hand, if they don't get ranked wins from the UAA, they're in trouble.
I guess JCU didn't like being dropped from the rankings. Hammered Marietta 7-1. Meanwhile ONU already up 2-0 on Capital with one of my favorite players, Horton, getting both goals.
Oberlin up 1-0 on Wabash. Wertman struck. Seemed like might have been offsides but really good finish. He's got be a leading candidate for NCAC POY.
Oberlin advances.
Hanover and Transy starting 2nd OT.
Unreal. Ref gives Hanover a PK in 2nd OT. Looked like contact initiated by Hanover. Hanover moves on to play RHIT.
So - how many will we get? Last year's 9 was a high water mark - average is 7 over the last 7 years.
- The PrAC gets only one this year as Geneva and Grove City were never ranked and the winner of TM vs Geneva is Neo;
- AMCC gets only one this year - PSU-Behrend vs Medaille. A brutal finish to PSU-B if they lose;
- HCAC - I'd like to think both finalists get in - Rose-Hulman entering the ranking for the first time this week - but it could come down to the winner of this game if there are upsets in other conference tournaments. Loser on the bubble.
- OAC - John Carroll needs to win - but does ONU also? SOS drops .37 points in two weeks, leaving them just above .500. Hard for me to think they miss out if they lose, especially if Oberlin gets in - which seems likely.
- NCAC - God's gift to the Great Lakes region! Let's put them all in the tourney! Seriously, I think this conference is certainly deserving of 3 bids - but not at the expense of ONU should they falter.
- CMU - they still get in if the lose the rivalry game this weekend? Lose at Grove City, beat JCU away in only significant non conference games. Like the NCAC, UAA conference schedules jack up their SOS - I've seen them play 3x (Allegheny, GCC, JCU) - not overwhelmed.
So if it is 9 for 2016: PSU-B, TM (I think they win vs Geneva - if it is a tough game I'm more impressed with TM's will to win), ONU - I think they are the best team I've seen play this year - too complete from front to back; giving two spots to HCAC finalists Hanover and Rose-Hulman; NCAC gets Kenyon, DePauw and Oberlin - still not impressed with Oberlin's defense; CMU. If it is 8 - the first one out is loser of the HCAC final; if it is 7 next out will be ONU if they lose, CMU if they lose. I'm nervous for ONU - not going to be easy to win at JCU but they are fully deserving of a spot regardless. JCU 2014 . . .
Institution
| In-Division
win-loss
| In-Division
win-loss pct
| Results vs all Division
Ranked Opponents
| In-Division SOS
(weighted OWP-OOWP)
| Week 1 SOS
| wk 1 rank
| Week 2 SOS
| Wk 2 rank
| Week 3 SOS
| wk rank 3
|
DePauw
| 11-4-1
| ( 0.719)
| 3-1-0
| 0.553
| 0.56
| 4
| 0.562
| 1
| 0.553
| 1
|
Carnegie Mellon
| 11-3-2
| ( 0.750)
| 2-2-2
| 0.562
| 0.531
| 7
| 0.534
| 7
| 0.562
| 2
|
Kenyon
| 15-2-0
| ( 0.882)
| 2-1-0
| 0.525
| 0.528
| 6
| 0.507
| 6
| 0.525
| 3
|
Ohio Wesleyan
| 10-4-3
| ( 0.676)
| 3-3-1
| 0.56
| 0.553
| 3
| 0.562
| 2
| 0.56
| 4
|
Ohio Northern
| 15-1-3
| ( 0.868)
| 1-0-2
| 0.508
| 0.545
| 1
| 0.515
| 4
| 0.508
| 5
|
Oberlin
| 14-3-1
| ( 0.806)
| 1-3-0
| 0.542
| 0.561
| 2
| 0.562
| 3
| 0.542
| 6
|
Hanover
| 13-4-0
| ( 0.765)
| 1-2-0
| 0.538
| 0.543
| 5
| 0.531
| 5
| 0.538
| 7
|
Rose-Hulman
| 13-5-0
| ( 0.722)
| 1-2-0
| 0.527
| 0.54
| - | 0.526 | - | 0.527 | 8 |
John Carroll | 11-5-2 | ( 0.667) | 0-3-1 | 0.55 | 0.554 | - | 0.569 | 8 | 0.55 | - |
Wabash | 11-5-2 | ( 0.667) | 1-4-1 | 0.527 | 0.54 | 8 | 0.515 | - | 0.527 | - |
Nov 5
Oberlin at Kenyon, 1:00 PM
Ohio Northern at John Carroll, 7:00 PM
Hanover at Rose-Hulman, 1:00 PM
Medaille at Penn State-Behrend, 4:30 PM
Thomas More at Geneva, 7:00 PM
Domino,
Good analysis but I think it's a far stretch to hope that the loser of the HCAC championship would jump from the bottom 2 rankings into the top 4-5 which is likely where you have to be in order to be selected.
Oberlin is also in a tough spot- Wabash falls from the rankings so they lose a ranked win from the regular season and fail to pick up another ranked win last night in their grudge match even though Wabash is a quality side. Oberlin is 1-3 vs ranked teams this year including head to head losses to 3 teams that are ahead of them (ONU 0-4, Kenyon 2-3, OWU 0-3) . I think their only way into the NCAA tournament is by winning in Gambier on Saturday unless the Great Lakes gets 4-5 at large bids which is highly unlikely.
1.) PSU-B 2.) TM 3.) ONU/JCU (but not both, albeit it would be a travesty if ONU is not in the tournament field, their numbers don't match up well), 4.) R-H/Hanover (but not both), 5.) DePauw 6.) Kenyon and then maybe 7a.) OWU 7b.) Oberlin 7c.) CMU.
For OWU, they need Hanover to stay in the rankings. For CMU, they need JCU to win the OAC and hopefully hop back in the rankings giving them 2 ranked wins. Oberlin...as I said before, I think they need to win the NCAC Championship to guarantee a spot. If they fail to, they fall to 1-4 RvR which will be tough to get in unless the GL region gets more at larges this year than last (they received 3 last year: DePauw, OWU, and Thomas More).
Quote from: Midwest Soccer on November 03, 2016, 02:40:22 PM
Domino,
Good analysis but I think it's a far stretch to hope that the loser of the HCAC championship would jump from the bottom 2 rankings into the top 4-5 which is likely where you have to be in order to be selected.
Oberlin is also in a tough spot- Wabash falls from the rankings so they lose a ranked win from the regular season and fail to pick up another ranked win last night in their grudge match even though Wabash is a quality side. Oberlin is 1-3 vs ranked teams this year including head to head losses to 3 teams that are ahead of them (ONU 0-4, Kenyon 2-3, OWU 0-3) . I think their only way into the NCAA tournament is by winning in Gambier on Saturday unless the Great Lakes gets 4-5 at large bids which is highly unlikely.
1.) PSU-B 2.) TM 3.) ONU/JCU (but not both, albeit it would be a travesty if ONU is not in the tournament field, their numbers don't match up well), 4.) R-H/Hanover (but not both), 5.) DePauw 6.) Kenyon and then maybe 7a.) OWU 7b.) Oberlin 7c.) CMU.
For OWU, they need Hanover to stay in the rankings. For CMU, they need JCU to win the OAC and hopefully hop back in the rankings giving them 2 ranked wins. Oberlin...as I said before, I think they need to win the NCAC Championship to guarantee a spot. If they fail to, they fall to 1-4 RvR which will be tough to get in unless the GL region gets more at larges this year than last (they received 3 last year: DePauw, OWU, and Thomas More).
While I agree with Domino that it's a crazy thought, and that travesty is probably the right word...I'm with you on the OAC Midwest... it's just not a conference that gets 2 teams in, even in these extreme circumstances. The situation gets even worse if Oberlin manages to pull off the NCAC AQ, because I think Kenyon is safe now...
I think the loser of the OAC final is out.... obviously so if JCU loses, but when you look what other regions offer in terms of SoS comparison against ONU, it's just not close.... Of all currently regionally ranked teams, ONU's SoS ranks 61st of 62, with one ranked win... As good as they are, I don't think that's a recipe for a pool C. As much as they pass the eye test, I think they have to win Saturday.
And so we're on to the discussion of scheduling - and winning - out of conference games. Much like Kenyon last year - and somewhat this year - ONU's pre-conference schedule needed to be more challenging.
But then you have JCU that almost killed themselves pre-season - and that included Wheaton (Ill) and Case - both very down this year - in addition to Brandeis, PSU-Behrend and CMU. Fredonia had a surprising year - 7 of JCU's 9 pre-conference opponents have winning records; they played only 2 home games in the pre-season. They go 3-5-1. OWU plays 8 straight home games before their first road game (a loss at Capital) - going 5-2-1 in their preseason.
Oberlin had spotty results against the OAC - 4-3 win over Baldwin Wallace, the ONU loss and tie at home against Otterbein (an 87th minute needed to get the draw at home) - not to mention the preseason loss to Capital; Kenyon had troubles with Heidelberg and Otterbein; OWU beat Otterbein 2-0, ties ONU and loses to Capital; DePauw and Wabash did not play OAC teams. So there's SOS numbers - where a win is a win - and then there's the eye test: how did they win? How are they playing?
Hanover was bruised at OWU - dominated - yet only lost 1-0. The DePauw loss wasn't as lop-sided - a 2-1 loss. The loss at Transy - they owned that game - Transy had two shots on goal to Hanover's 11; in the recent Rose lose they outshot Rose 15-3 - gave up two goals in 1 minute late second half. John Carroll went 8-0-1 in conference after a very tough pre-conference. These are the teams that will get screwed so a third or fourth NCAC team can get in . . .
Domino,
I can appreciate your overall sentiment but saying Hanover gets screwed if they don't get an at large is a stretch considering as you stated, they had opportunity to take down DePauw and OWU and didn't. They have 1 ranked win against a very impressive Carthage team but if you look closely, Carthage had a red card in the 14th minute. That's not intended to take away from Hanover because they are a very deserving team, but they have had their opportunity in the regular season. Racking up wins vs the lesser HCAC teams doesn't warrant an at large NCAA bid when you lose the close ones to the teams who are ahead of you. Having said all this, I think Hanover will win the AQ this Saturday.
JCU is 8-0-1 in their last 9 which is very impressive and they are a very good team. But they too have had their opportunity to pull off ranked wins and currently sit at 0-3-1. I would not be surprised in the slightest if John Carroll takes down ONU this weekend either. JCU has gotten better and better as the season has worn on. I wonder if they wish they could have started with the OAC schedule and then moved onto the non-conference. Playing at Brandeis in your opening game is no easy task.
Bottom line: This is a flawed system. If ONU gets upset and doesn't make the tournament then they will probably be one of the best teams to ever not play in the NCAA tournament.
I agree with most of what's been said above. I think DePauw and Kenyon are probably safe. Oberlin needs to beat Kenyon - OWU has an edge in ranked wins (3-1), SOS, and head-to-head, so if Oberlin loses they'll be the fourth NCAC team.
If JCU loses they're out. With a loss, JCU would have 6 losses, zero ranked wins, and a winning percentage lower than any team that's ranked. No unranked team has made it from Pool C in years as well.
If ONU loses, they still have a shot, but it'll be tough. It might depend on how much their SOS jumps this week. If it stays super low, they're in trouble, especially with only one ranked win and no head-to-head edge against Kenyon, DePauw, or OWU. The winning percentage could help against DePauw or OWU, but unless the SOS goes up a bunch I think it'll be tough.
The Hanover-RHIT loser is out. The resumes just don't stack up, and neither of them beat any of the other teams in the GL rankings.
ONU is the only team I'd have sympathy for if they don't get an at-large. I don't think I'd use the term "screwed" - they knew the requirements to get in when they scheduled, and the only teams they could have expected to be ranked from their non-conference were OWU and Oberlin. But ONU is certainly good enough to be in the tournament, and I think they're right there with Kenyon as one of the two best teams. The problem for ONU becomes, how do you compare them against teams from other regions? Can't just use the eye test when few (if any) have seen all of these teams play.
Outside of ONU, every other team can point to games they could/should have won that would give them the resume needed to get in. They didn't get those wins, and that leaves them at the mercy of the committee and hoping that other results fall their way.
I wouldn't say ONU would be "screwed" in the strict sense, but if ONU doesn't end up with a bid I think that does go to how badly the selection system is flawed, just as I would have argued if Kenyon had been left out last year or this year. ONU has been considered one of the top 7-8 teams in the country for virtually the entire season. I think we've seen this year how even with decent planning a team cannot guarantee a certain SOS. I would concede that a team can increase its chances for a good SOS but a series of unforeseen events can drop a SOS (or elevate a SOS) far more than could be anticipated ahead of time. Teams also can't account for strong teams not being ranked or being ranked at the wrong time and/or a team you lost to being ranked at the right or wrong time. In terms of ONU and their expectations for ranked wins, I don't know that they would have been counting on Oberlin, but I would think they reasonably could have hoped/expected JCU and/or CWRU to be ranked in addition to OWU. They also could have hoped a team like Heidelberg with some recent relative success might have jumped in. Sure, ONU could have scheduled one more non-conference heavyweight, but I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance. Their SOS is going to rise after playing Capital and away at JCU to probably somewhere within the .525-.540 range. The other candidates will still have a significant edge on SOS but the gap may be reduced enough to make the discussion for the cmte much tougher especially given ONU's far superior winning pct. In addition to adjusting/changing the criteria perhaps they should consider a system where the national cmte reserves 2-3 spots per year to correct for the more egregious omissions to the tournament based on strict fidelity to the criteria.
Oberlin is the only other team in the region that I would personally feel bad for. They've had their best season in program history, and they are actually very good and fun to watch. They play good soccer. They very well may beat Kenyon tomorrow and then they'll be in. If not, they are stuck with a RvR that is problematic for them. They could have hoped for CWRU and/or Wabash and/or Heidelberg to be ranked. I have credited them for wins over Geneva and Grove City, and they did benefit (a lot) for those two on SOS but in fairness they probably knew those two were longshots to get or stay ranked. Oberlin's SOS should jump back up to DPU/OWU/CMU levels after the games with Wabash and Kenyon. So SOS will be relatively even with Oberlin having a better winning pct than DPU or OWU and weaker RvR.
This is a strange year when there are so many 6-8 blemish teams still in strong contention for bids in especially in the New England, East and Great Lakes regions, and that's mainly because of so few teams behind them that either didn't take advantage of surpassing them or won't have the right stats by the criteria. In Great Lakes CMU is right about where they often are in terms of record while their RvR may be a bit weaker than usual. IMO DPU and OWU have had relatively mediocre years by their standards (especially OWU) and in many years most of us would look at their records and presume a Pool C is out of the question. I would assume even the cmtes would consider teams placing 4th and 5th in their own conference to be ranked #1 and #2 in Week 2 and then #1 and #4 in Week 3 to be a head-scratching outcome. That's how it played out with the criteria but I would think one would have to question the criteria when we see outcomes like this. Even with the criteria I can't really understand DPU being #1. Yes, they picked up some ranked wins, but otherwise their resume in total IMO is not that impressive. Put another way, if you had told DPU and OWU that they would have 6 and 7 blemishes each and finish 4th and 5th in the NCAC I would seriously doubt either could have imagined even being in the Pool C discussion.
At any rate, the GL teams in Pool C contention would seem to be Kenyon, ONU, DPU, OWU, CMU and Oberlin. Either Kenyon or Oberlin will get an AQ. ONU may get an AQ. So that would leave 4 teams vying for how many slots? 2? 3? 4? In my mind the wild cards are what the cmte will do with ONU (if ONU loses to JCU) and CMU (assuming CMU beats CWRU at home). As some will be quick to remind, these teams won't be competing with just each other but also and maybe more so with teams with roughly similar resumes from other regions.
Great stuff....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE6LwHsjnUQ
Quote from: NCAC New England on November 04, 2016, 12:32:03 PM
I wouldn't say ONU would be "screwed" in the strict sense, but if ONU doesn't end up with a bid I think that does go to how badly the selection system is flawed, just as I would have argued if Kenyon had been left out last year or this year. ONU has been considered one of the top 7-8 teams in the country for virtually the entire season. I think we've seen this year how even with decent planning a team cannot guarantee a certain SOS. I would concede that a team can increase its chances for a good SOS but a series of unforeseen events can drop a SOS (or elevate a SOS) far more than could be anticipated ahead of time. Teams also can't account for strong teams not being ranked or being ranked at the wrong time and/or a team you lost to being ranked at the right or wrong time. In terms of ONU and their expectations for ranked wins, I don't know that they would have been counting on Oberlin, but I would think they reasonably could have hoped/expected JCU and/or CWRU to be ranked in addition to OWU. They also could have hoped a team like Heidelberg with some recent relative success might have jumped in. Sure, ONU could have scheduled one more non-conference heavyweight, but I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance. Their SOS is going to rise after playing Capital and away at JCU to probably somewhere within the .525-.540 range. The other candidates will still have a significant edge on SOS but the gap may be reduced enough to make the discussion for the cmte much tougher especially given ONU's far superior winning pct. In addition to adjusting/changing the criteria perhaps they should consider a system where the national cmte reserves 2-3 spots per year to correct for the more egregious omissions to the tournament based on strict fidelity to the criteria.
Oberlin is the only other team in the region that I would personally feel bad for. They've had their best season in program history, and they are actually very good and fun to watch. They play good soccer. They very well may beat Kenyon tomorrow and then they'll be in. If not, they are stuck with a RvR that is problematic for them. They could have hoped for CWRU and/or Wabash and/or Heidelberg to be ranked. I have credited them for wins over Geneva and Grove City, and they did benefit (a lot) for those two on SOS but in fairness they probably knew those two were longshots to get or stay ranked. Oberlin's SOS should jump back up to DPU/OWU/CMU levels after the games with Wabash and Kenyon. So SOS will be relatively even with Oberlin having a better winning pct than DPU or OWU and weaker RvR.
This is a strange year when there are so many 6-8 blemish teams still in strong contention for bids in especially in the New England, East and Great Lakes regions, and that's mainly because of so few teams behind them that either didn't take advantage of surpassing them or won't have the right stats by the criteria. In Great Lakes CMU is right about where they often are in terms of record while their RvR may be a bit weaker than usual. IMO DPU and OWU have had relatively mediocre years by their standards (especially OWU) and in many years most of us would look at their records and presume a Pool C is out of the question. I would assume even the cmtes would consider teams placing 4th and 5th in their own conference to be ranked #1 and #2 in Week 2 and then #1 and #4 in Week 3 to be a head-scratching outcome. That's how it played out with the criteria but I would think one would have to question the criteria when we see outcomes like this. Even with the criteria I can't really understand DPU being #1. Yes, they picked up some ranked wins, but otherwise their resume in total IMO is not that impressive. Put another way, if you had told DPU and OWU that they would have 6 and 7 blemishes each and finish 4th and 5th in the NCAC I would seriously doubt either could have imagined even being in the Pool C discussion.
At any rate, the GL teams in Pool C contention would seem to be Kenyon, ONU, DPU, OWU, CMU and Oberlin. Either Kenyon or Oberlin will get an AQ. ONU may get an AQ. So that would leave 4 teams vying for how many slots? 2? 3? 4? In my mind the wild cards are what the cmte will do with ONU (if ONU loses to JCU) and CMU (assuming CMU beats CWRU at home). As some will be quick to remind, these teams won't be competing with just each other but also and maybe more so with teams with roughly similar resumes from other regions.
I can't agree on "I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance" with regard to ONU, and that's coming from a fan of that program. They always play Wesleyan, and yes, they could have hoped for Case to be "up" again like 2015 after poor (by their own lofty standards) seasons in '12, '13, and '14.. Oberlin is
exactly the kind of team you ought to be scheduling - solid, probably will help SoS... but with ONU's senior laden group, you have to think that staff believes that if they play their best soccer they get a result against a program that is typically in the middle of the NCAC pack.
But the rest????As I pointed out in an earlier post, without weighting for home/away, and only considering OWP and not OOWP... ONU's SoS from their non conference slate is actually HIGHER than they could have anticipated based on the prior 4 years of results from their non conference opponents. Cumulative record from their non conference schedule was below .500 in ALL of the prior 4 years.
This isn't a "so-and-so underperformed and hurt our SoS" type of schedule. This is a "we play in the OAC, which we know has a weak bottom half, and if we therefore choose to feast on HCAC teams for our non conference slate, we have only ourselves to blame" type of schedule.
I hope they take care of business tomorrow so the committee isn't pressed to choose between them and the 3rd or 4th ranked non-AQ teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.
We might be missing each other on Oberlin. ONU DID play Oberlin and won 4-0. My point there is that there were no preseason predictions that Oberlin would have the season they have had and be regionally ranked all four weeks. As for compensating for a week conference, I'm not sure what a school does about that. The bottom 4 of the NCAC is pretty weak too. Anyway the decision will be tougher for the cmtes if ONU's SOS is around .535 as opposed to .505 or whatever it was for the rankings this week.
Quote from: DonkeyTouch on November 04, 2016, 01:34:19 PM
I can't agree on "I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance" with regard to ONU, and that's coming from a fan of that program. They always play Wesleyan, and yes, they could have hoped for Case to be "up" again like 2015 after poor (by their own lofty standards) seasons in '12, '13, and '14.. Oberlin is exactly the kind of team you ought to be scheduling - solid, probably will help SoS... but with ONU's senior laden group, you have to think that staff believes that if they play their best soccer they get a result against a program that is typically in the middle of the NCAC pack.
But the rest????
As I pointed out in an earlier post, without weighting for home/away, and only considering OWP and not OOWP... ONU's SoS from their non conference slate is actually HIGHER than they could have anticipated based on the prior 4 years of results from their non conference opponents. Cumulative record from their non conference schedule was below .500 in ALL of the prior 4 years.
This isn't a "so-and-so underperformed and hurt our SoS" type of schedule. This is a "we play in the OAC, which we know has a weak bottom half, and if we therefore choose to feast on HCAC teams for our non conference slate, we have only ourselves to blame" type of schedule.
I hope they take care of business tomorrow so the committee isn't pressed to choose between them and the 3rd or 4th ranked non-AQ teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.
I appreciate the honesty. There can be a lot of boorish partisan chatter on these boards and it's refreshing that one with direct links to a program can be honest about their position "on the bubble". I too thought with all those seniors - with several candidates for All Region honors - Kinkopf surely has to be all NSCAA All American - that ONU could have done more with their preseason schedule. I know some schedule commitments can be made several years into the future, but
established programs should know better.
OWU gave themselves a great start to the season by scheduling 8 straight home games, knowing they were going to be so young. Capital traded some higher caliber competition - Transylvania, Case - for Finlandia and Wittenberg - but after 2015's 2-7 start to the season, you learn that you can crush a young team's spirit with a death march in the preseason.
Embedded in my previous comments is the sentiment that up-and-coming programs don't stand of chance of seeing Pool C, given the current process. When you are developing a program, you need to get results that attract and continue to appeal to the next group of recruits. You want to offer players that commit to you some chance at the post season, also knowing that each new class of recruits MAY cause these same upperclassmen to lose playing time - and possibly quit. When an up-and-coming program has a decent year - you feel for them and wish they'd get a shot - in spite of the bludgeoning of SOS conversations. So when it gets down to the last one in: an established OWU program that smartly put together a favorable schedule, knowing that the NCAC would always provide a boost to the SOS - or a Geneva, Hanover, Grove City, PSU-B if they fail to get the AQ? This is strictly a sentimental statement - not looking for another discussion of SOS . . .
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 04, 2016, 02:55:21 PM
Embedded in my previous comments is the sentiment that up-and-coming programs don't stand of chance of seeing Pool C, given the current process. When you are developing a program, you need to get results that attract and continue to appeal to the next group of recruits. You want to offer players that commit to you some chance at the post season, also knowing that each new class of recruits MAY cause these same upperclassmen to lose playing time - and possibly quit. When an up-and-coming program has a decent year - you feel for them and wish they'd get a shot - in spite of the bludgeoning of SOS conversations. So when it gets down to the last one in: an established OWU program that smartly put together a favorable schedule, knowing that the NCAC would always provide a boost to the SOS - or a Geneva, Hanover, Grove City, PSU-B if they fail to get the AQ? This is strictly a sentimental statement - not looking for another discussion of SOS . . .
Pool C is tied much more to your schedule (and your conference) than it is to whether you're an "established" or an "up-and-coming" program. If Allegheny had gone 11-5-2 (instead of 5-11-2) with wins over Carnegie Mellon, OWU, Kenyon, and Christopher Newport, they'd be a lock for a Pool C despite coming from nowhere. ONU, on the other hand, is an "established" program, but they'll be on the bubble if they lose tomorrow, because they played
eleven non-conference games, yet scheduled only one team they could count on to be regionally ranked.
Every up-and-coming program - even ones from one-bid conferences - has a chance (and a good one) at the postseason through the AQ. If you play in the HCAC or the OAC or other traditional one-bid leagues, you only need to win 2 conference tournament games and you're in. If you consistently do well in your conference, you'll recruit better players. Make an NCAA run or win the conference tournament a few years in a row, and you can continue the momentum. Eventually, you can get to the level where you can afford to load up the out-of-conference schedule because you're confident that either (a) you'll get enough results there to get a Pool C or (b) you'll win the conference AQ if you don't. That's what Messiah has been doing forever in a weak conference.
The alternative, quicker way is to schedule some big boys and take your shots. That's what Hanover did this year, and if they'd beaten OWU and DePauw they'd have a decent chance at a Pool C. As it stands, they still have a great shot to get in by winning tomorrow, in large part because the trade-off for playing in a weaker conference is that it's much easier to win the AQ.. So schedule 8-9 non-conference games, and go after 3-4 teams that are traditionally ranked. Win most of those, add in the SOS boost, then you have a chance for an at-large and a really good chance for the AQ. Hanover played it correctly this year, and Thomas More got an at-large doing it last year, so it's doable.
Bottom line, Pool C is about two things: (1) scheduling good teams and (2) beating them. The point of Pool C is to let in the best teams who miss out on AQs. Even if the SOS metric were calculated in a better way, the schedule itself is where you demonstrate you are one of the best teams, because you need ranked wins. If you don't play anybody, how do we know you're better than a team that played
and beat several good teams? Even if the eye test were a thing, there are 408 teams in D-III, so it's impossible to have watched enough to compare teams between regions with anything resembling accuracy.
For example, how do we know that ONU is better than Tufts? They haven't played each other. They have no common opponents. Both have looked great (ONU over Oberlin, Tufts over Amherst) and not-so-good. Nobody can really claim they've watched both teams very often to make a good "eye test" comparison. Tufts has lost more games, but they also have 5 wins that are as-good or better than ONU's best win. So while I
think ONU is good enough to beat several ranked teams, I
know Tufts is good enough. And although I can speculate ONU would have a better record against Tufts's schedule, I can also speculate that Tufts would have a better record with ONU's weaker schedule. So the committee has opted, correctly in my view, to reward teams for winning tough games - even at the expense of more blemishes - rather than for winning a bunch of easy games.
Knowing that the eye test is essentially useless between regions, the Great Lakes committee is in a bind. Let's say the eye test suggests ONU is the second-best team behind Kenyon. How does ONU compare to teams from other regions? If the SOS stays at 0.510, with only one ranked win, not well. So ONU keeps getting passed over for teams from other regions. And because ONU can't get off the board, neither can DePauw or OWU, who would stack up better against other regions with better wins and a higher SOS. So it makes sense to have DePauw and OWU higher, getting them off the board faster, and then you hope ONU can still get a bid.
This might all be a moot point tomorrow. ONU can win, or their SOS can jump to 0.525 or higher, making them competitive with the high win%. But I don't think we can just run it off the polls. If that were the case, then established teams would get the benefit of the doubt, because a 14-3-0 Messiah is much more likely to be ranked in the D3soccer.com poll than a 14-3-0 Allegheny. I think the SOS needs fixed, but aside from that I haven't been able to come up with a realistic solution that improves the current selection process.
Two things on OWU:
(1) Totally agree with NCAC's thoughts, in that 10-4-3 and missing the conference tournament is not good enough for an NCAA bid in a normal year. Three things have kept OWU in it. (a) Other teams, both in the Great Lakes and other regions, have not had great seasons. (b) OWU limited in-region ranked losses to DePauw and Kenyon. If Kenyon wins tomorrow, only one NCAC at-large team will be above them. (c) OWU picked up two out-of-conference ranked wins, giving them 3.
If they don't get in, that's fine. They should have won more games, especially against W&L, Denison, and DePauw. And even now, OWU needed (and still needs) a lot of luck, starting with Hanover and Calvin and continuing with Kenyon and other heavy favorites (Messiah, Amherst, etc.) around the country. But if they get in, it'll mainly be because of a down year overall and because OWU played four non-conference games against ranked teams and won two of them.
I bashed RPI last year, and OWU is certainly open to criticism for missing the conference tournament, but it would be less of a shock. RPI only had two ranked wins and went 3-3-2 in conference, finishing 7th out of 9 teams in a two-bid league. OWU went 5-2-2 and finished 5th in what would be a three-bid league. It's not a good look, but I don't think you can disqualify teams solely for missing their conference tournaments. To put it in perspective, if OWU played in the OAC or NESCAC they'd have made the conference tournament easily. Plus, what if OWU had beaten W&L and ONU? They'd have 5 ranked wins and would still have missed the conference tournament, but they'd be a lock. All of that is to say that I agree OWU is probably undeserving of a bid in most years, but this year might be a really odd exception. (If OWU were to get in over teams with better resumes, however, I will be thrilled on a personal level but will hit the committee accordingly).
(2) OWU's schedule is getting blown out of proportion. Yes, they had 8 home games to start, but that was a scheduling quirk more than an intentional set-up. OWU has traditionally (for decades) hosted two non-conference tournaments on the first two weekends. They only started traveling one of the two weekends in 2010. Since then, OWU has gone back-and-forth playing both weekends at home (2011, 2013, 2016) or one away (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015). This year both non-conference tournaments were at home, while next year they'll be away for one. As for the other games, OWU played ONU, Hanover, and Otterbein on the road last year, so this year they were set as home games. And they played Capital at home last year, so got them on the road this year, but not until after they played Denison at home (who they visited last year).
If the Capital game had fallen in early September, this would be a non-issue, especially considering the quality opponents OWU played. They brought in Calvin, ONU, W&L, and Hanover, all teams expected to win their conferences, and all teams that ended up regionally ranked. They won two of those games, and that's why they have a chance for a Pool C. John Carroll, on the other hand, played three ranked teams, and lost to all of them. That's really the difference between the two teams.
I won't deny in the least bit that it was good for OWU to have those games at home. But OWU started 4-5 seniors this year, whereas next year there's a good chance 8-9 freshman/sophomores start with only 2-3 juniors/seniors. Yet OWU will have more tough road games, with an early road weekend plus games at ONU, Otterbein, Oberlin, DePauw, and Wabash. Bottom line, OWU always builds a good schedule, and if they win some of those games, they have a decent shot at a Pool C even if they struggle in-conference.
As an enthusiastic rival fan who still wants to believe he can thread the needle on this....
I agree with everything RH wrote. OWU has a lot to do with being in a position to take advantage of a down year. They did well enough and got enough key wins to be in that position. They had a reasonably challenging schedule with some non-conference teams almost guaranteed to have high winning pcts (Calvin, ONU....and if I was OWU I would schedule Calvin home and away for the next 20 years because that is SOS money in the bank...and often the same for ONU). IMO, they still got an unexpected boost on SOS, as the away Capital game exceeded expectations on SOS, Hanover was a good pick but that also probably exceeded expectations, and 4 other NCAC teams had SOS friendly records which is probably at least 1 more than normal. At any rate, OWU hasn't done anything wrong and isn't getting any special favors (as far as I can tell when looking at matters clearly). That said, the karma aspect of this, as a rival, still is a little stunning. OWU never misses the tournament. I haven't checked but there may not be any misses or at most 1 or 2 over the past 25-30 years. And then the one time they maybe should miss on the merits relative to historical norms, and the one year they did in fact miss the conference tournament (because when did that last happen?), THEY turn out to be a team that finds their relatively-speaking down season for them to be the season when the Pool C environment just happens to be so down. Compare this year to the year when it was dicey whether OWU would get a bid over that 17-4 JCU team (when both should have gotten bids) and OWU had had a more typically stellar season but was behind JCU in the 3rd week regional rankings. That team, after being on the fence during a very competitive Pool C year, of course went on to the Final Four.
Here's a kind of ultimate, albeit odd, expression of respect....As a rival fan, OWU is like the bad guy in the horror flick. You think you've gotten rid of the guy 5 or 6 times already, and then there he is again.
Calvin by the way is a great example of SOS not telling the whole story about whether a team is the real deal or not. Last year they were the last-ranked team in their region most weeks of the regional rankings and I believe they are the last team currently in the Central. In New England and maybe some other regions they wouldn't be ranked at all because of that SOS. Someone mentioned that ONU was 61st out of 62 teams on SOS this week (which is going to change). The 62nd team was Calvin. And they have been a perennial national power and a national finalist and Final Four team in recent years.
Absolutely gorgeous conditions here in Gambier - perfect autumn day and the field looks to be in great condition. Only issue is they are playing the same set of music for the third straight year!!!
Not sure what the over-under is for slipping but it's going to be about 50 by half. We had frost this morning - might be some residual moisture. Grass is cut like a putting green and the ground is firm - which make footing very difficult.
So only 2 of the 8 regionally ranked teams grabbed their AQ yesterday - Hanover and Kenyon. CMU took care of business and with CWRU's gaudy SOS and Wash U tying Chicago (CMU beating Wash U 3-0) - might they move to #1 in the 4th rankings? Regardless, they get in. DePauw stays in the top 3 and gets a bid. With some of the AQ upsets in the east that probably cuts into Pool C opportunities in the Great Lakes. OWU, Oberlin and ONU fighting for one - maybe two spots. Interesting that all three played on another - Oberlin 0-2 - that can't be good for them - yet they go to 2OT in the championship game. ONU falls behind 2-0 at JCU, fights back for the tie, loses in PK's.
Good luck to all candidates - it's all about supporting our region from here on out.
Wondering who gets to go to Chicago next weekend? DePauw and Calvin? Hanover - or will they host? Unfortunate RC to Desai yesterday - if that carries over he misses two games.
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 06, 2016, 09:32:42 AM
So only 2 of the 8 regionally ranked teams grabbed their AQ yesterday - Hanover and Kenyon. CMU took care of business and with CWRU's gaudy SOS and Wash U tying Chicago (CMU beating Wash U 3-0) - might they move to #1 in the 4th rankings? Regardless, they get in. DePauw stays in the top 3 and gets a bid. With some of the AQ upsets in the east that probably cuts into Pool C opportunities in the Great Lakes. OWU, Oberlin and ONU fighting for one - maybe two spots. Interesting that all three played on another - Oberlin 0-2 - that can't be good for them - yet they go to 2OT in the championship game. ONU falls behind 2-0 at JCU, fights back for the tie, loses in PK's.
Good luck to all candidates - it's all about supporting our region from here on out.
Wondering who gets to go to Chicago next weekend? DePauw and Calvin? Hanover - or will they host? Unfortunate RC to Desai yesterday - if that carries over he misses two games.
My prediction for regional rankings goes Kenyon, either ONU or CMU (but both get in), DPU, OWU, Oberlin, Hanover with RHIT dropping out and JCU coming back in which may have some marginal impact for a few teams. I think ONU's SOS is going to rise just enough to edge ONU upwards. Just can't overlook 17-1-4 in this region. CMU would benefit if JCU comes back in if the cmtes do in fact go to consideration of the 4th week in terms of RvR which given how close these calls are going to be I think they will have to consider every possible angle available. I think that nudges CMU past DPU and OWU. No real way for OWU to get past DPU. So in this scenario OWU would wait to see if the selections go deep enough into Great Lakes, and I think that will likely happen because of the relative weakness in some other regions. Of course it could go Kenyon, DPU, OWU, CMU, ONU, and then ONU is on the fence. In either case, Oberlin is the likely odd man out. I don't like that, as in my view Oberlin has had a stronger overall season than DPU, OWU and maybe even CMU. I'm an Oberlin fan, I like the program a lot and how they play, love the school, etc, etc. If there is any way for Oberlin to get a bid I want them to get it. That said, I'm not thrilled that Oberlin in their recaps continues to refer over and over to the "controversial...gifted, gifted x2...stolen by Kenyon" game at Oberlin that Kenyon won on a last-second goal, and in post game comments yesterday the coach referred to the challenge presented by the field and having to deal with Kenyon "playing it safe" (whatever that means). Regarding the first game, yes, that was tough, but Kenyon was going to get the corner off with at least a crack at it and if they had scored there with an extra ball rolling around and Oberlin not organized for the corner they naturally would have complained about that. The stoppage gave both teams, not one, an opportunity to get organized. Go ahead and clear the corner and there's no issue, and in any event the outcome would have been a draw for Oberlin and not a win. I'm fine with calling it "controversial," but the implications of something sort of nefarious is a little much. There have been a bunch of games this year won or lost in the final seconds of games. Regarding playing it safe, Kenyon was the team down 1-0 and the team that outshot Oberlin 17-7 and had more of the possession from what I could tell. If he means not playing keep-away with the ball in your own 18 yard box with the GK, then fine, guilty as charged. It's a bitter pill to swallow. Understood. Oberlin produced two outstanding efforts against Kenyon and came away with nothing for it. They finished a legit #2 in the NCAC regular season and then made the NCAC final to back that up. But it's not Kenyon's fault if they don't get in.
Domino, you were in Gambier. Impressions from yesterday? I didn't get to watch most of it so I don't a good sense for what happened other than seeing that both teams struggled with footing.
Congrats to old Great Lakes friend, Centre, for earning an AQ.
NCAC - yes indeed I was at the game. Then I watched PSU-Behrend on my iPad by a bonfire, then inside to watch ONU-JCU on the iPad, Geneva-TM on my iPhone while watching Ohio State glancing over my iStuff. Damn hard being a sports fan sometimes . . .
The slipping was less prevalent second half but I was so afraid the game would be marred by a defender falling and conceding a breakaway. Kenyon's toughness was ultimately the deciding factor - but they just aren't as quick as previous teams - not the level of combination play we're used to seeing. Barnes has not been replaced - tall task to begin with - but the flow if the ball through the midfield to the front line is just not there. Both regular time goals were on the fluky side - a quarter-punched cross from the right acted like a driven ball - only to descend after getting over the keeper and fall into to path of the back post runner for Oberlin. Kenyon's goal came from a "shross" - a miss hit cross that floated into the back upper 90.
If I could have my choice I'd like to see Geneva, PSU-B and JCU at Kenyon next weekend, with JCU vs Geneva. On Sunday I'd hope for Kenyon vs JCU.
ONU's keeper has a serious deficiency dealing with high crosses. Donkey covered it in his post-Capital
game comments - but the goal conceded in the first JCU game and the howler on the corner last night have to be concerning to ONU coaches and fans.
Most misleading score line yesterday was the 4-0 game at PSU-B. PSU-B is opportunistic - but several posts and crossbar hits by Medaille, some serious possession in the PSU-B final third - 4-0 doesn't tell the full story.
I've seen Hanover a couple times - I like the way they play. Depending where they go they could be a Sweet 16 candidate. I would love to see a CMU-Hanover game! I don't see Geneva getting there - typical for TM to commit a stupid penalty first minute of OT - they were just an undisciplined mess this year. I'm guessing CMU will host and get PSU, Geneva and a Pool C - OWU, maybe ONU.
Just finished my portion of the predictions. What a process. The bubble is a train wreck. So many teams are so close, so it's going to be a crapshoot tomorrow.
Great Lakes predictions for at-large purposes: (1) DePauw; (2) OWU; (3) Carnegie; (4) ONU; (5) Oberlin
I think OWU jumps Carnegie because CMU will only have one ranked win (to OWU's three) and I'm confident their SOS will drop below OWU's after the home multiplier gets applied to Case's poor record. Even if John Carroll jumps back in, I don't see how it's enough for Carnegie to re-jump OWU once it gets to the at-large stage.
Aside from DePauw I don't think any GL teams is very safe. I think OWU has the best chance - the three ranked wins loom large. Carnegie probably needs John Carroll to get back in to have a shot. ONU is at the mercy of the committee - they're basically Thomas More from last year. I don't see ONU getting in before Carnegie (who has an edge having beaten John Carroll) or OWU. And based on our projections, ONU finished with a SOS that was 40th out of 41 total Pool C teams, and dead last of teams I thought were realistic Pool C candidates. If they don't get in, that's why.
I'm going out on a limb here, but I think in the end the GL cmte is going to be generous with ONU and also Wabash is going to take the #8 spot giving Oberlin 3 ranked wins. Both get in. I think there's a chance CMU/ONU (tied for 2nd in my GL rankings), Oberlin, DPU and OWU all get in and fans from other regions will be howling. If it's Wabash and not JCU at #8 then CMU might slip towards the back of the pack. If RHIT holds on the Oberlin probably is the odd team out.
Would have loved to travel to PGH this weekend except I have US Mexico tickets on Friday and Calvin won't play on Sunday's , so first round at CMU starts Friday. NCAC - good luck in Lynchburg - I wanted to see a JCU-Kenyon match-up - there's a remote chance but JCU has work to do against the hosts
A parent who doesn't track the nuances of SOS and wins against ranked teams -- so take it with a grain of salt. That Oberlin team was impressive and much tougher competition for my kid's program than OWU. Learned a long time ago that soccer will break your heart, so no news here. Just a tough break for that program.
I don't hate or love Kenyon's draw. Anytime I don't see OWU in the quadrant I am a little relieved. Maryville obviously is pretty good with a great record and I would guess Lynchburg has one of the bigger/better home field advantages and draw large crowds. I think there are issues with the Kenyon field and they likely did not apply to host, as I would assume Kenyon is the #2 seed in the quad behind Rowan (or maybe #3 after Rowan and Trinity). Anyway, will not be easy to get through the Lynchburg pod and if so 20-1 Trinity could be waiting, only to be followed by Rowan/Tufts/Haverford, UMass-Boston. Remember that last year Tufts went down to Jersey and pulled out a come from behind win against a loaded MSU squad. Tufts will look forward to playing Rowan and I would expect that to be a toss up game. Haverford vs UMass-Boston if it happens would be fascinating as well.
The CMU pod is a great-sounding pod with CMU/OWU, Calvin and ONU. Those should be great games. That said, I'm not sure any of those will be able to knock off Messiah if Messiah is alive on the other side. ONU actually might have the best shot of the four but ONU won't be favored to get by Calvin. Pittsburgh is a great location for a pod.
And DePauw versus Centre will bring familiar foes together.
Because of their travels and some strong opponents I don't think JCU will be awed going into Lynchburg either.
Great day for the Great Lakes region. This marks the second straight year the GL gets four at-large bids, tied for the most for the second straight year. It's a moot point, but I'm still surprised Carnegie Mellon stayed above OWU given that JCU didn't get in. Aside from that, it makes sense.
Carnegie: 0.765 win%, 1-2-2 RvR, 0.556 SOS
OWU: 0.676 win%, 3-3-1 RvR, 0.567 SOS
midwest - agree that it's a tough break for Oberlin. As we all know, soccer is a tough sport to compare results. Oberlin was very good all year, but lost head-to-head against OWU and ONU by lopsided scores (even if the games may have been closer than that). They also had two shots to beat Kenyon and couldn't. I'm disappointed Oberlin didn't get in, but there's no way to justify them being above OWU/ONU. Carnegie Mellon is actually a closer comparison:
Oberlin: 0.775 win%, 1-4-0 RvR, 0.562 SOS
CMU: 0.765 win%, 1-2-2 RvR, 0.556 SOS
I mentioned this before, but Carnegie Mellon played zero ranked teams from the Great Lakes, and didn't schedule any teams that were realistic threats to be at the top of the region, so they didn't take a chance of being below any of them due to head-to-head come Pool C time. Funny enough, they'll now have to take out at least one (if not two) to get through this weekend.
As for ONU, happy for their players, but that really could have gone either way. The SOS was just so bad. That will be a fascinating game against Calvin, as both teams play the same way - through wingers and cut-backs. ONU is more dynamic going forward, but I think Calvin is better in the back. Turf would normally favor ONU, but Calvin has a lot of team speed.
From OWU's perspective, getting in alone is great. I don't think they'll be favored in any game, but they get a CMU team that is beatable and then two teams that they've already played pretty even. Much better than a trip to Chicago or Carthage IMO, which I thought was possible.
Tougher draw than expected for Kenyon. Maryville is a huge unknown, although the USAC rep got hammered last year in the tournament. The second round is also tough if Lynchburg, although JCU is probably not as bad, at least results/resume-wise. That quadrant is loaded, so should be a lot of good games.
Before we get further into the tournament stuff, I do want to indulge in one shameless plug for Kenyon. At times I've been hyper-critical and there are things I sometimes question. I don't know if that ever bothers any Kenyon folks who may browse through here, but I feel I've more than made up for occasionally being critical or "negative" by basically advertising the program on this site for the past four years. That said, I do want to congratulate the Lords for doing the NCAC double two years in a row and winning the NCAC tourney 3 years in a row. The four year ride the Lords have enjoyed now rivals any period in Kenyon soccer history. In 2014 everything fell right for Kenyon until the painful Sweet 16 exit. They were ranked #1 regionally every single week and #2 in the country for most of the season. The last two years in some ways have been more impressive because both years the Lords have had intense pressure on them constantly for the latter halves of each season due to the SOS conundrum, dealing with high rankings and super-high expectations but somehow finding themselves in must-win or almost must-win situations over and over and for the most part delivering. They also have prevailed at a time when the NCAC is more competitive than ever. It used to be OWU by a mile and then everyone else. This year there were five teams that could have been NCAA teams and that had the potential to beat each other on the day. Kenyon found a way to end up on top even though it wasn't always pretty. Congrats to the players and the coaching staff, and best of luck in the tournament.
Agreed with NCAC. Hats off to the KC Lords. Anyone else wonder why Amolo and Glassman didn't start the 2OT vs Oberlin? And then a freshman who is in their place buries the game winner....bold move that paid off.
Quote from: Midwest Soccer on November 08, 2016, 09:50:31 AM
Agreed with NCAC. Hats off to the KC Lords. Anyone else wonder why Amolo and Glassman didn't start the 2OT vs Oberlin? And then a freshman who is in their place buries the game winner....bold move that paid off.
Not sure. Also can't remember if you have to be on the field at end of game to take a PK or not. Brown would have wanted Amolo in for that and maybe he was going to give the frosh 3 or 4 minutes and then put Amolo and Glassman back in. Definitely good to have some secondary scorers emerging but I get nervous when they are fully subbed and the field begins to tilt the other way. Will be interesting to see if Amolo gets more minutes as he seems to be in good form overall. Also would be really great to see them not give a goal in the first 5-10 minutes of games and instead grab momentum by scoring first. A brief review of Maryville shows that they have a couple of kids who have scored a ton of goals with a bunch of assists and a few others with at least 4-6 goals. The Maryville star striker is a transfer from Berry and the star midfielder is a former Tennessee high school POY and NSCAA high school All American.
You do not have to be on the field anymore to take PK's. I will say I have seen time and time again that a coach puts in a "good" PK taker that in practice buries them every time but is not a good field player or good enough to play many minutes or any minutes. The coach puts in a "cold" player that has not played in the game and I have seen time and time again these "cold" players choke. If I were a coach I would never put a cold player to take a PK rather relying on a player who has been through the game and is more focused than the cold player...Guarantee you will see that happen in this tournament and the "cold" player will choke. If it happens the coach is the only guy that should get blamed
Maryville is a very strong attacking squad. Baker and Lucas are two of the more dynamic players I have seen in a while. Baker took last year off and Lucas took a year off after transferring from Berry College a couple of years ago. I think them against Kenyon is an interesting match up, especially because Kenyon is so strong defensively.