Region Predictions:
Another year of D3 soccer and another year with Loras on top. I expect Loras's reign to continue strong this year, partly with a softer schedule and partly with a weaker region.
Had the opportunity to watch UWW-Macalaster, was not thoroughly impressed with either side. UWW relied on their typical big ball... relied would be an understatement. They have the capabilities to play good soccer in the midfield but look too narrowly at set pieces and throw-ins. Macalaster really struggled with UWW's athleticism and could not posses the ball. But they had a couple spurts where I saw the Macalaster that only lost 1 game last year (don't quote me on their losses).
A lot of people are talking about St. Thomas having a good year... from their results I think that conclusion may be in jeopardy. A win, but a very undermining win against Northwestern as well as a tie against Colorado College. I'll wait and see to make a conclusion on them.
Dubuque, Wartburg, Luther look to be stronger than years past. Dubuque yet to concede a goal and are blowing out competition. Wartburg has fireworks for offense, but were beat 3-1 to a far more possessive Macalaster team. Luther... two subpar wins, but have the roster to be talented.
Think St. Scholastica is down this year but they play in a high school level conference, so of course they will be tournament bound.
St. Norberts and Platteville are both teams that could have a "dark-horse" like year. Haven't played anyone yet but have been steadily on the incline for the past couple years.
Games to watch this weekend:
Norberts against Olaf, at Loras
Platteville at CUW, at Marian
Luther vs Knox
Warburg vs St. John's and Knox
Looks like Wartburg tied St. Johns today. Will be interesting to see how they respond tomorrow against Knox. Wartburg started strong but fizzled out in the middle 45 minutes only to come around at the end for a tie.
Could this be the year Dubuque is the best team in their own city?!
Own thoughts, Loras has taken a significant drop relative to recent years. Meanwhile, the rest of the IIAC is catching up. Luther, Dubuque, Simpson, Wartburg.
Mac, St. Thomas, and HAMLINE!! Are looking like the cream of the crop up in the MIAC.
St. Norberts looks to be rolling this year.
Platteville and Whitewater will always be in the mix as well. That should be an interesting race for the Pool B between the two.
Overall, I do think this region is steps behind the others. If you look at the Central region, teams like Chicago, Wash U, Calvin... I do not see a team in this region that could top those three.
Little late to the party this year lads. Goose is absolutely correct in the North being down this year.....head scratching some of these results. Unless there is a serious turnaround in the second half of the season, North region will be hard pressed to find a Pool C bid.
Early Postseason predictions:
IIAC - Luther has my attention. Dubuque is looking good this year as well, but they have yet to play the other "big 3" (Loras, Wartburg, Luther) so I will hold my tongue for now, especially as we venture into the heart of regular season conference play.
MIAC - Macalester continuing from where they left off in 2015. The Scots have only conceded 4 goals so far, could see them finishing the regular season without another loss. Will St. Thomas bottle it again this year? I think/hope they can figure it out- undefeated so far but still have Luther, CSS, MAC. All other MIAC schools with too many blemishes, would need AQ.
UMAC - Usually Scholastica. Don't think UW Superior would put up too much of a fight but who knows with this conference.
Pool B - Could it come down to whoever wins the UWW-UWP match on 10/16? UWW has more opportunity to hold a better RvR. Not really impressed with either squad yet. Is UWW relaxing a bit knowing that they don't have to worry about competition from UW Oshkosh? Platteville hasn't seemed like they have taken advantage either. Warhawks do have a win against Loras, but how much value will that hold at the end of the season? Whitewater has final match vs. Wash-U to collect a signature victory. However, if Platteville wins out, could be interesting at 14-4 with wins against Wartburg, UWW, Dubuque. Toss up for me.
MWC - St. Norberts has done well. Knox quietly at 9-3. Lake Forest always in the mix.
Predicted Regional Rankings this week:
1.) Macalester - Still like them for top dawg even with the loss away to Luther.
2.) Luther - Win vs. MAC and only loss to a strong Wash-U side.
3.) Dubuque - Have met expectations so far.
4.) St. Thomas - Undefeated but also untested.
5-10.) ?????????
Nice post Wisco, and welcome back!
IIAC- I am in the same boat as you with this one. Luther is the clear favorite. #17 in the nation with a huge win against Macalaster two days back... they are on a roll. But a 4-0 loss to Wash U just shows this years lackluster North Region. Dubuque with only one loss is rolling as well, not the same schedule of Luther however. But a 2-1 ot win against Nebraska Wesleyan... yikes. Loras is down this year, I think they can pull it together for a decent run during conference tournament time, but I do not expect them to make the national tournament (unless they get the Oshkosh/Dominican treatment).
MIAC- I think this is the worst year in terms of strength they have had in years. Macalaster is slumping and has yet to have an impressive win, St. Olaf would be the 5/6 best team in the IIAC, and St. Thomas has yet to play anybody that will be even remotely close to the NCAA Tournament. The winner will be one of those three teams, but don't expect them to go far in the National Tourney.
UMAC- Arguably the worst conference in the nation, Scholastica has been underwhelming. Of course smashing their lesser opponents but losing key games to Knox, Loras, St. Olaf, Mac.
Pool B- UWW 7-3-2, biggest W is against Loras (who may not be regionally ranked) and Webster/Westminister (who neither will be regionally ranked), they did pull a tie against Luther and Mac, two regionally ranked opponents.
UWP- 8-4. biggest W against nobody, and 3 losses to regionally ranked opponents.
I think this just reflects how down this region is this year and how lucky the winner of these two should feel for being in an abysmal pool B bracket.
Winner will come down to head to head match up.
MWC- Knox, only a 1-0 loss to Chicago is a statement in my eyes.
Predicted Regional Rankings
1. Luther
2. Mac
3. Dubuque
4. St. Thomas
5. Knox
6-10, who knows
Another weekend packed full of north region matches and more perplexing results...you can't make this stuff up. St. Thomas is the only team still alive IMO, however they only have one solid win against a declining Macalester side. Luther is on thin ice at 9-2-2 (which would be a decent record anywhere else in the nation). The Norse haven't played too many cupcakes but who knows what is going to be considered a "good win" come November. They host Dubuque tomorrow. And speaking of UD, Dubuque dumps a 3-nil shocker to 7-6-1 Simpson and Wartburg also gets skunked, giving up three goals to Platteville. Both losses coming after big midweek wins for Sparty and Warty. Loras is at 6-4 and will travel to Waverly tomorrow to take on the Knights. Whitewater drops all three points to..... ST NORBERT COLLEGE?!?! At this point, UWP and UWW should just flip a coin for the Pool B bid. Even with as good of a year St. Norbert is having, I still think they have to win conference as the MWC just isn't strong enough yet to reap a Pool C.
I want my old north region back.
UWP vs UWW: This past week definitely made the Pool B race closer, but even with the rather lackluster results in the last couple of games UWW is still in the driver's seat. They've got a top 10 SOS in the country compared to UWP somewhere in the 200's, with their only poor loss against Augustana. The number of blemishes for UWW is troubling though, so they're definitely not doing this in convincing fashion. UWP has to win out to really have a chance. Even a tie against UWW could sink their chances, barring a UWW meltdown.
Something to watch....
http://d3soccer.com/seasons/men/2016/pool-b-teams
Although it looks like New Rochelle does not play anyone even remotely good, they have a 11-2 record at the moment.
With 3 games left and a potentail 14-2 record, could they spoil the Pool B Party?
Casualfan,
http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index
Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).
I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.
UWW virtually has the Pool B on lock. They blow out Platteville in basically every statistical category. SOS, Regional wins/ties. And consistently being ranked higher in both massey/hero sports rankings helps.
I will say this though, they are a little fortunate with Platteville being down and no Oshkosh. This makes this a two-horse race every year for the pool B, the rest of the pool B teams are abysmal. In years past, UWW had stronger profiles than this year and were turned down because of a better resume of an Oshkosh or Platteville. (2012/2013)
Quote from: Wisco21 on October 11, 2016, 03:24:05 PM
Casualfan,
http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index
Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).
I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.
New Rochelle is eligible for the NCAA tournament on the basis of their Division III membership, but they will not meet the requirement for at-large selection consideration of playing 70% of their games against Division III in-region opponents because only 9 of their 17 opponents are Division III members (53%). That is, unless they requested and were granted a waiver, but that is highly doubtful for a variety of reasons, foremost that they do not have a compelling geographical challenge which is the typical reason for requesting and receiving a waiver.
New Rochelle competes in the Hudson Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (HVIAC) which is not Division III but rather a member conference of the United States Collegiate Athletic Association (USCAA). The HVIAC, and its predecessor separate men's and women's conferences, have been home to numerous Division III members over the years, many who eventually moved to the Skyline Conference. Of the HVIAC's ten current members, six are full USCAA members and four, including New Rochelle, are affiliate USCAA members. I could imagine that New Rochelle will declare for the USCAA national championship (I'm assuming affiliate members are eligible). New Rochelle is also an ECAC member, but I'm not sure that the D-III's version of the NIT would select them to their Mid-Atlantic championship given their weak schedule.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 11, 2016, 04:59:06 PM
Quote from: Wisco21 on October 11, 2016, 03:24:05 PM
Casualfan,
http://d3soccer.com/teams/New_Rochelle/Men/2016-17/index
Looking at their schedule, only 9 teams are linked, which I'm going to assume means "D3 school". Off those 9, they posted a record of 6-2 (Keystone match not played).
I would be led to believe the NCAA committee would only take that 6-2 record into account when determining the Pool B bid.
New Rochelle is eligible for the NCAA tournament on the basis of their Division III membership, but they will not meet the requirement for at-large selection consideration of playing 70% of their games against Division III in-region opponents because only 9 of their 17 opponents are Division III members (53%). That is, unless they requested and were granted a waiver, but that is highly doubtful for a variety of reasons, foremost that they do not have a compelling geographical challenge which is the typical reason for requesting and receiving a waiver.
New Rochelle competes in the Hudson Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (HVIAC) which is not Division III but rather a member conference of the United States Collegiate Athletic Association (USCAA). The HVIAC, and its predecessor separate men's and women's conferences, have been home to numerous Division III members over the years, many who eventually moved to the Skyline Conference. Of the HVIAC's ten current members, six are full USCAA members and four, including New Rochelle, are affiliate USCAA members. I could imagine that New Rochelle will declare for the USCAA national championship (I'm assuming affiliate members are eligible). New Rochelle is also an ECAC member, but I'm not sure that the D-III's version of the NIT would select them to their Mid-Atlantic championship given their weak schedule.
Thanks for the clarification FW!
Looks like it will come down to the UW schools then as they're the only other 2 Pool B eligible teams with winning records.
I think Sunday's game will have a lot to do with it despite the statistics saying otherwise..
Having seen both teams play, it should be an interesting battle. Two different styles with neither preferring the ball on the ground. UWP will high press UWW's backline as Rinderknecht from UWP is a handful up top. With 13 goals thus far, I can see him tallying at least one.
UWW will use set pieces to slow the game down and create chance after chance from long throw-ins, corner kicks, and deep free kicks from Stanko. They believe in their set pieces and are willing to throw their bodies around to create chaos in the box for rebounds and tap-ins. If Kayser, Whiteman, Ortiz, and Hottsmith can get on the ball in the attacking third, I think UWW will be more dangerous in the run of play, but that seems to be an outlier throughout the season.
My prediction is 2-1 UWW. Rinderknecht gets one in the first 15-20 minutes. UWW equalizes just after half through Hottsmith. Then with 10 minutes remaining Ortiz gets the winner.
Looks about right Casualfan. I do want to note that Platteville is coming off two away wins this previous weekend to good opposition and enjoys a week to prepare while Whitewater travels 3 and half hours to Monmouth tonight and then up to Fond du Lac for Marian this upcoming Saturday.
I will for sure be attending this one live, weather forecast looks to be favorable!
Hopefully none of the UWW guy's lose their cool against a rough/hard-working Marian team. That could be one of those sleeper games where UWW is looking forward to Sunday a little too much.
I think it will be 3-0 UWW. Although Platteville does have Rinderknecht, I see Whitewater capitalizing on the "winner takes Pool B" game.
Hottsmith will have 2 and Stanko the third.
Warhawks took care of business and make the committee's job easy for them. UWW still has a couple big games to play though which could help in determining what quality opponent they get in the first round of the tournament.
Agreed WarhawkFan. Also strengthening their claim with a win over North Park last night.
Looking at their schedule a little closer, they play their final match on October 23rd. The first round of the tournament is the weekend of November 12th and 13th. That's ~20 days without a match....yikes!
Will next week's Regional Rankings include games on Tuesday? Can't remember what the cutoff is.
With Dubuque losing to Wartburg at home, I certainly expect them to fall from No. 1, but how far is the question. I'm guessing St. Thomas will take over No. 1. If Tuesday's games are included, the winner of Loras/Luther could move into No. 2, or does Macalester move into No. 2?
It's games through Sunday just like every other poll/ranking.
Predictions for new regional rankings
1. St. Thomas
2. Luther
3. Loras
4. Dubuque
5. Macalaster
6. UWW
Points to mention- St. Thomas has shown that they are the king in the North.
Luther is playing well and is deserving of top 2.
I think the committee is biased towards Loras (based off of last rankings, without having a really significant win), I wouldn't have them in the top 5.
Dubuque has dropped two against non regionally ranked opponents, Wartburg and Platteville
Macalester only had one game this week, a tie against Augsburg
Norberts is cruising right now, but in a lackluster conference
UWW just beat Wash U/North Park in the last week and are on a 6 game winning streak. Could see them being bumped anywhere from 3-6 spots.
I think the only real teams to make a run in the national tournament are:
St. Thomas as they are undefeated (but we saw last year with Macalester how that turned out)
Loras, their style of play is hard to match. Although they are down from years past, Rothert owns postseason.
UWW- have played Luther, Macalester, Loras, Norberts, Carthage, North Park, Wash U..... In those games they are 3-2-2. With wins against NP and Wash U in the past week.
St. Norberts have done nothing wrong so I do not see them dropping out of the top 6. They also have wins over UWW and Loras. Macalester could be the odd team out as they are 2-3-2 in their last 7.
1. UST
2. Loras
3. Luther
4. Dubuque
5. St. Norberts
6. UWW
UWW just ranked #14 in the NCSAA poll, only behind St. Thomas
1. St. Thomas
2. UWW
3. Dubuque
4. Luther
5. Loras
6. Macalaster
And to be fair, that seems like a pretty realistic regional ranking. UWW has had the most impressive wins relative to everyone else in this group. I think they will be the most dangerous team in the North come national tournament time. They have an all-american keeper in Lucatorto, an all-american forward in Hottsmith, have a well-developed senior class; and play with athleticism/speed and power with set pieces that is hard to match.
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on October 25, 2016, 02:09:57 PM
UWW just ranked #14 in the NCSAA poll, only behind St. Thomas
1. St. Thomas
2. UWW
3. Dubuque
4. Luther
5. Loras
6. Macalaster
And to be fair, that seems like a pretty realistic regional ranking. UWW has had the most impressive wins relative to everyone else in this group. I think they will be the most dangerous team in the North come national tournament time. They have an all-american keeper in Lucatorto, an all-american forward in Hottsmith, have a well-developed senior class; and play with athleticism/speed and power with set pieces that is hard to match.
Stanko was also an AA last year...they are a dangerous team. When they are on, they can compete with just about anyone.
Yup he was. Scary thing is, he isn't even playing right now.
From what I saw I believe that the Warhawks are better off without him. He is not the same player as he was last year. Might have to do with the injuries he has been dealing with.
NORTH
1 St. Thomas (MN) 13-0-3
2 Wis.-Whitewater 13-4-3
3 Dubuque 12-4-0
4 Luther 11-4-2
5 Wartburg 12-5-1
6 St. Norbert 14-3-0
These are a bit flawed since Luther should presumably drop out and be replaced by Loras after the result went in Loras's favor Tuesday night.
UWW season is over since they have no conference tournament. .587 SOS and potentially 4-2-2 regionally ranked record enough to host for the Warhawks?
Loras and Macalester were most likely was booted due to their 0-3 and 0-2 records against regionally ranked opponents.
Still seems like St. Norbert is dependent on winning the conference championship. .521 SOS and 2-0 record against regional ranked (if Loras gets added next week) seems like it might not be enough.
Would love to see Norberts make it. Also believe it is definitely feasible for UWW to host. I would assume UST, UChicago, IIAC winner, would all get to host as well? I know geographically the NCAA will blend some North region and Central region teams into a pod. Same with Great Lakes region and Central region.
Firmly believe with the addition of video for UWW, they have a good chance to host. They may be sitting in the most comfortable position in the country with sitting back and watching everyone else compete. They won't drop in the regional rankings and have time to rest up.
Only way for Norbs to make the tournament is if they win their tournament. Will not have enough to bypass the three IIAC teams for the Pool C and/or the 2 MIAC teams.
you also need to account for 1 UMAC team getting in with their AQ, taking one of the North Region spots.
the only way the MIAC gets 2 teams in, is if St. Thomas bows out of the MIAC playoff early and the AQ goes to another team. If St. Thomas wins the AQ, I suspect that they will be the only MIAC team represented in the NCAA's. It would be the first time in several years the MIAC didn't have multiple representatives in the tournament.
From what I have heard UWW's grass field is in terrible condition right now. Many days of rain followed by games has caused the field to be the worst it has ever been in years. Also, the fact that Chicago, Carthage and UWW are logistically close to each other could be another deciding factor.
Chicago, Carthage, UST and DePauw could be the four "Midwest" hosts. Could see UWW being the #2 in either the UST or DePauw's group of 4.
If Loras wins the IIAC I could see them hosting as well.
Quote from: KrazyLegZ on October 31, 2016, 03:10:47 PM
If Loras wins the IIAC I could see them hosting as well.
If Loras hosts, I'll be shocked as they weren't in the Top 6 of the North Region NCAA Rankings last week. I'm sure they'll move up, but I would be surprised to see them higher than 4th. And if you're 4th in your region, you should never host a NCAA tournament game.
Loras has no shot of hosting; let alone, they may still have a hard time winning their conference.
If the IIAC gets 2 teams into the dance, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Loras host...
The selection committee has made it very clear in years past that its all about $$, not rankings. And from a geographic/travel perspective, Dubuque makes a lot of sense for North & Central region teams.
Quote from: casualfan on October 31, 2016, 04:44:29 PM
Quote from: KrazyLegZ on October 31, 2016, 03:10:47 PM
If Loras wins the IIAC I could see them hosting as well.
If Loras hosts, I'll be shocked as they weren't in the Top 6 of the North Region NCAA Rankings last week. I'm sure they'll move up, but I would be surprised to see them higher than 4th. And if you're 4th in your region, you should never host a NCAA tournament game.
Just remember that the only schools that host NCAA postseason games are the ones that put in bids to host. If other top teams don't submit hosting bids, it's gotta fall to someone.
And the deadline for submitting proposed budgets/facility evaluations for first/second rounds and sectional rounds was Sunday, October 30.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 01, 2016, 01:05:34 PM
And the deadline for submitting proposed budgets/facility evaluations for first/second rounds and sectional rounds was Sunday, November 1.
I thought today was November 1 . . . ;)
What are you talking about?!? ;)
(was looking at 2015 dates, not 2106 dates)
Never said the IIAC would be a cake walk. The championship is always a close game, no matter who Loras plays. But, if they can win their next two games. I think that puts them in strong consideration to host the 1st round of the tournament.
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 01, 2016, 11:59:07 AM
Loras has no shot of hosting; let alone, they may still have a hard time winning their conference.
Loras vs Simpsont - 4-1 Loras... Rothert or Mr. November
Dubuque vs Luther - 3-2 Luther, think Luther is rolling right now and Dubuque is on the decline. Honestly, you never know what you are going to get from these two
Macalester vs St. Johns - 3-1 Mac
Scholastica vs Northwestern - 2-0 Superior
Loras vs Luther tonight, may have huge implications depending on who wins.
IIAC Champion - 1
UWW - 1
St. Thomas - 1
MWAC - 1
UMAC - 1
With that being said,
I think regardless of tonight's game, Loras is in.
UWW is a lock on Pool B
St. Thomas won the MIAC earlier today
MWAC- Either Grinnel or Norberts (who are currently tied, don't see either snagging a Pool C)
UMAC- Scholastica or Superior, again neither will grab a Pool C
That leaves us with Loras/Luther/Macalester all in the running for a pool C. Since it has been a down year in this region, I don't see 2 pool C's coming from this side (but then again, I could be wrong)
If you compare resumes, Loras is 2-4-0 with a SOS of higher than that of Macalester
Luther with an even higher SOS of the other two and another huge smashing against Dubuque, I would have to say they too have a better resume than Macalester.
Just checked in with Scholastica and Superior, 2-1 CSS with 12' to go.
CSS just picked up a red card, should make for an interesting rest of the game.
12' to go in the first half****** ;D ;D ;D
Luther up 1 early in the first half
Luther now up 3-0 against Loras....
Like I've said, this is a down year for Loras but I do think Luther is just that good!
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 05, 2016, 08:48:14 PM
Luther now up 3-0 against Loras....
Like I've said, this is a down year for Loras but I do think Luther is just that good!
since the IIAC champion is determined by regular season why is there even playoffs and will this hurt loras at all for the NCAA bid
Shouldn't at all. Loras' resume is pretty solid with a very strong SOS, 2 wins against Regional Ranked opponents, and their name; they will receive a Pool C.
They have this tournament so teams like Luther can showcase their talents and make a case for themselves to be in the tournament. In years past, Loras was just so much better than everyone else so it really didn't matter. Plus it gives senors from other teams a chance to have another game.
Luther and Loras will both be in.
Feel bad for teams like Dubuque, Wartburg.... maybe even Macalester (a long shot for a Pool C but still have a good shot) who are very talented sides that will not make the tournament but a team like CSS will.
Loras with a quick one but Luther responds quick 4-1.
Although the score is 4-1... Loras is going at Luther.
One off the bottom of the post, maybe went in. Then an absolute birthday present in-front of the goal and Loras misses it wide.
THHEEE DUHAWWWKSSSS down 4-1 with 8' left but just scored 2 in 2 minutes!
Let me mention they have hit the bottom of the post twice as well as missing an absolute sitter!
Should make for an interesting 5 minutes!
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 05, 2016, 09:10:19 PM
Shouldn't at all. Loras' resume is pretty solid with a very strong SOS, 2 wins against Regional Ranked opponents, and their name; they will receive a Pool C.
Loras has a chance, but they're not a lock by any means. This week Loras's RvR will be 0-4-0 for regional rankings because Luther and Wartburg both dropped out last week. So Loras will have an excellent SOS, but a low winning percentage and they'll be on the low end in terms of ranked wins. We're still running the numbers and will have predictions up this week, but right now I'd put Loras on the bubble and rooting for Amherst, Trinity, etc. to win tomorrow.
38 to 15 in shots and 13 to 2 in corners. The last 10 minutes was absolutely nuts.
Loras's chances of making it in are pretty darn good. Every team above them in the region or that jumped them after this game in the region all get an AQ or were a pool B. Their strength of schedule is outstanding and they have a 1-4 against regionally ranked teams
Loras is in, willing to put money on it.
That makes 6 teams from the North.
St. Thomas
UWW
Luther
CSS
Norberts
Loras
Of those 6, 4 (in my eyes) are scary-
St. Thomas, yet to lose.
UWW, athletic/huge player
Luther, have been on a roll as of recently
Loras, it's tournament time and those guys are upset with the IIAC championship.
CSS is a 'give me' game for whoever is lucky enough to get them.
Norberts does not impress me with how they handled their conference tournament.
Goose I like your prediction. Teams that could be thrown a bone: 1.) Macalester or 2.) Dubuque. Their only way in is if Loras gets bounced- don't think there will be more than 6 North bids.
Here's the complete Horse Crap Tournament pick of the year, Loras was left out and UD was put in! I cannot believe it. >:(
DUBUQUE OVER LORAS!!!!! ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
That's a Christmas present if I have ever seen one!
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 07, 2016, 01:18:44 PM
DUBUQUE OVER LORAS!!!!! ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
That's a Christmas present if I have ever seen one!
Loras was the default #1 team in the North after AQ's and Pool B bids, how does UD make it?
You have Loras, You have Macalester, You can even make a case for Dominican out of the Central....
But then you take a Dubuque team who has a Subpar SOS, 1 Regional win... and didn't even reach their conference championship....
Quote from: KICKIN95 on November 07, 2016, 01:21:00 PM
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 07, 2016, 01:18:44 PM
DUBUQUE OVER LORAS!!!!! ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
That's a Christmas present if I have ever seen one!
Loras was the default #1 team in the North after AQ's and Pool B bids, how does UD make it?
Time to rethink the Iowa style of kick and run with a team that didn't have the talent that it had in previous years.
It's been shown that Loras can Play Soccer..when they want to and when they do good things happen.
Wait till next year >:(
Would be nice of the NCAA to realize SNC changed its logo several years ago...
Quote from: Medicated Pete on November 07, 2016, 01:27:07 PM
Quote from: KICKIN95 on November 07, 2016, 01:21:00 PM
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 07, 2016, 01:18:44 PM
DUBUQUE OVER LORAS!!!!! ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
That's a Christmas present if I have ever seen one!
Loras was the default #1 team in the North after AQ's and Pool B bids, how does UD make it?
Time to rethink the Iowa style of kick and run with a team that didn't have the talent that it had in previous years.
Less of an Iowa Style and more of a Loras style. I think you will see them playing a bit different next season with the talents being what they are on the squad.
The 2nd half of Saturday's game against Luther is what Loras is capable of at anytime. They are very young and very talented, but the youth showed itself on the defensive end against a team that is able to possess and pass efficiently.
It's been shown that Loras can Play Soccer..when they want to and when they do good things happen.
Wait till next year >:(
Blind Resume time according to 11/2 regional rankings:
Team 1
SOS: .581
Vs Ranked opponents: 2-4-0
Winning Percentage: .750
Team 2
SOS: .565
Vs Ranked opponents: 1-2-1
Winning Percentage: .684
Team 3
SOS: .536
Vs Ranked Opponents: 1-2-0
Winning Percentage: .765
Team 4
SOS: .524
VS Ranked Opponents: 0-2-2
Winning Percentage: .794
Team 5
SOS: .575
VS Ranked Opponents: 2-2-0
Winning Percentage: .625
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 07, 2016, 01:57:04 PM
Blind Resume time according to 11/2 regional rankings:
Team 1
SOS: .581
Vs Ranked opponents: 2-4-0
Winning Percentage: .750
Team 2
SOS: .565
Vs Ranked opponents: 1-2-1
Winning Percentage: .684
Team 3
SOS: .536
Vs Ranked Opponents: 1-2-0
Winning Percentage: .765
Team 4
SOS: .524
VS Ranked Opponents: 0-2-2
Winning Percentage: .794
Team 5
SOS: .575
VS Ranked Opponents: 2-2-0
Winning Percentage: .625
I would rank these teams: 1-5-3-2-4
and I have no vested interest...
Dubuque vs Westminster- 3-1 Dubuque, Westminster capitalizes on a very weak conference and may be one of the weakest teams in the tournament.
UWW and Hanover- Don't know much about Hanover due to them not playing in either the North or Central. They did smack Carthage 4-1 at the beginning of the year and won their conference. UWW did align with Rose-Hulman last year and won in PK's. I'm expecting a similar game. Surprised UWW was given this tough off a test with how high they were ranked. 2-1 UWW
St. Thomas and St. Scholastica- St. Thomas will win easily 2-0. I think Scholastica is highly overrated and St. Thomas has a tremendous defense.
Luther and Norberts- I think Luther should steal this one pretty handily. 3-0 Luther.
Devil's advocate: If you're deciding between 2 teams (presumably Loras and Dubuque), who have similar resumes (Loras with a higher SOS but worse RvR), you're probably going to go with the team that won during the in season matchup. Head-to-Head sunk Loras, simple as that.
But my question is, having a worse RvR than an other team really a bad thing? So what we are saying is that you lose to more 'good' teams than another team....
Loras' losses: Norbs, at Carthage, at Dubuque, at UWW and Luther (in the conference championship) All national tournament teams!
Dubuque's losses: at North Park, Simpson, Wartburg, Platteville, Luther. 1 National tournament team!
So one head-to-head game on the road with a won goal loss decides a teams fate; meanwhile you have a better SOS (by far), you at least made it to your conference championship, your only losses came to teams in the national tournament, oh and you were in the national championship before (which obviously isn't criteria that you should base your assumptions off of, but still)
Classic, NCAA committee always keeping us on our toes. Feel for Loras and Macalester, but life goes on. Congrats to Dubuque for the 1st NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history.
Looking further down the road, which team survives this pod and makes it to the Final 4? Would have to imagine this is the weakest of the four groups, however I have no idea of the caliber of teams outside the North and Central regions. UChicago would be the obvious favorite (even to win the National Championship), but stranger things have happened.
Quote from: dontshootthegoose on November 07, 2016, 03:51:54 PM
But my question is, having a worse RvR than an other team really a bad thing? So what we are saying is that you lose to more 'good' teams than another team....
Loras' losses: Norbs, at Carthage, at Dubuque, at UWW and Luther (in the conference championship) All national tournament teams!
Dubuque's losses: at North Park, Simpson, Wartburg, Platteville, Luther. 1 National tournament team!
So one head-to-head game on the road with a won goal loss decides a teams fate; meanwhile you have a better SOS (by far), you at least made it to your conference championship, your only losses came to teams in the national tournament, oh and you were in the national championship before (which obviously isn't criteria that you should base your assumptions off of, but still)
Can't say for sure, but it may be that the committee sees RvR as a signal for whether your team can compete with tournament teams. Unfortunately for Loras it doesn't seem like they take into account the fact that all those were one goal losses.
Either way I'm sure there would have been controversy as Dubuque would be upset if Loras got in over them considering the head-to-head result.
Quote from: Wisco21 on November 07, 2016, 04:45:31 PM
Classic, NCAA committee always keeping us on our toes. Feel for Loras and Macalester, but life goes on. Congrats to Dubuque for the 1st NCAA Tournament appearance in the program's history.
Looking further down the road, which team survives this pod and makes it to the Final 4? Would have to imagine this is the weakest of the four groups, however I have no idea of the caliber of teams outside the North and Central regions. UChicago would be the obvious favorite (even to win the National Championship), but stranger things have happened.
Hard to pick anybody against UChicago out of this pod. I've watched about 5 of their games this year (all against tournament opponents) and they seem like the real deal. I can't remember the last time somebody had their credentials (16-0-2, 8-0-1 RvR, SOS .644) going into the tournament!
With Dubuque struggling down the stretch, and Westminster not even having one of their better years (getting in only because of a weak conference), UChicago should have a cakewalk through the first weekend. If WashU makes it through that could be a good rematch game as they just drew this week.
Carthage had a couple hiccups early (including a 4-1 loss to Hanover), but since have been more consistent than we've seen over the past years. They're a dangerous side, especially on their home turf. If I had to choose I'd say they'll beat Benedictine and pull the double over UWW (who they beat at UWW early this year). UWW is on a roll so I see them taking Hanover in a game reminiscent of last years bout with Rose-Hulman, but they tend to struggle against Carthage.
St. Thomas doesn't give up goals, and after seeing Luther's near meltdown against Loras I find it hard to see them getting/holding onto a lead against the Tommies (assuming they don't get taken down by St. Norbert in the first game). I could see St. Thomas making a deep run riding their defense to close wins.
St. Thomas is the lone survivor of the North.
What does this say to you?
Was the North having a down year, relative to years past?
St. Thomas in the final four. Congrats. I would love to see a St. Thomas-Calvin final.
Quote from: d3fan1 on November 20, 2016, 06:18:52 PM
St. Thomas in the final four. Congrats. I would love to see a St. Thomas-Calvin final.
Thanks! I would too. I may be biased, but I think that's what it'll be. St. Thomas is just not letting anyone put them down, huge come back wins.
I have a son who played for Calvin in their first National Championship run in 2009 when they lost to Messiah, so I am biased toward Calvin. My other son played at Central College in Iowa though and played against St. Thomas a few times, so I would love to see them do well also. In fact both were recruited by St. Thomas and we made a visit to the campus. It is a beautiful campus!
Quote from: d3fan1 on November 21, 2016, 09:59:23 AM
I have a son who played for Calvin in their first National Championship run in 2009 when they lost to Messiah, so I am biased toward Calvin. My other son played at Central College in Iowa though and played against St. Thomas a few times, so I would love to see them do well also. In fact both were recruited by St. Thomas and we made a visit to the campus. It is a beautiful campus!
Thanks! Loving the support for the North region :) It is a beautiful campus, and Jon Lowery has done an excellent job improving the men's soccer program. No matter what, should be a great final four.