Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
At this point, I will go with Wesley, John Carroll, Hardin Simmons, St Thomas, and maybe UW-Oshkosh?
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5.
Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
CWRU is on my radar, too.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 14, 2018, 09:33:37 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
CWRU is on my radar, too.
So it would seem the NJAC has a pool C, the MIAC, the ASC, and the OAC (B-W can be thrown in there as their only loss is to Mount). I think the CCIW could have a team contest for pool C, but there's too much interplay left there between teams to be certain.
Quote from: thewaterboy on October 14, 2018, 10:36:02 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 14, 2018, 09:33:37 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
CWRU is on my radar, too.
So it would seem the NJAC has a pool C, the MIAC, the ASC, and the OAC (B-W can be thrown in there as their only loss is to Mount). I think the CCIW could have a team contest for pool C, but there's too much interplay left there between teams to be certain.
The CCIW often gets a Pool C bid, but this year I think they will totally cannibalize themselves. We have FIVE teams in title contention!
I think the CCIW's best chance at pool C is Washington and NCC winning out (Wash would finish as the runner up 9-1)
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 11:23:20 PM
I think the CCIW's best chance at pool C is Washington and NCC winning out (Wash would finish as the runner up 9-1)
True, but as a Titan supporter, I don't like that scenario! That would mean that IWU finishes 7-3 (or worse!). I'm game for IWU to win out, and if the CCIW gets a rare 2-loss Pool C, so be it. With Pool C bids becoming an endangered species, we can live without getting one just this once! ;D
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 14, 2018, 11:36:48 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 11:23:20 PM
I think the CCIW's best chance at pool C is Washington and NCC winning out (Wash would finish as the runner up 9-1)
True, but as a Titan supporter, I don't like that scenario! That would mean that IWU finishes 7-3 (or worse!). I'm game for IWU to win out, and if the CCIW gets a rare 2-loss Pool C, so be it. With Pool C bids becoming an endangered species, we can live without getting one just this once! ;D
I think with the five bids, a one loss CCIW runner up would be in and a two loss CCIW team would be out. In fact, I would be really surprised if a 2 loss team grabs a C bid this year. Unless it's a situation like UW-0, where one of the losses is not D-III. But I should have noted the possibility of a one loss runner-up in the CCIW when I listed C candidates this year. When I look at the CCIW standings and then the remaining schedule, it just confuses me!
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
....
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
W&J can not finish the season as a one-loss team and NOT win the PAC title.
CWRU could fit that category but not W&J.
I'll work on an eliminator table tonight and possibly a mock selection, time permitting. I may hold off on a mock selection until the various regions post their weekly fan polls which I like to use a surrogate regional rankings.
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on October 15, 2018, 01:19:18 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
....
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, CWRU, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
W&J can not finish the season as a one-loss team and NOT win the PAC title.
CWRU could fit that category but not W&J.
Got it. Thanks Bob. So as Ralph said, that puts CWRU squarely in the Pool C discussion for now!
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2018, 02:59:22 PM
I'll work on an eliminator table tonight and possibly a mock selection, time permitting. I may hold off on a mock selection until the various regions post their weekly fan polls which I like to use a surrogate regional rankings.
Thanks Wally! Your posts on pool C are super clarifying when it comes to pondering the possibilities!
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
I hate to even say this, but let's not forget BW for the OAC. With JCU and Marietta still on the schedule, if they win out they would sit at 9-1 and I think a lock.
Either way, it's good to see some competition in the OAC. I would love to see the JCU-BW game on 11/10 at JCU (and my annual trip from Chicago back to the helm) be an essential play-in game!
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 15, 2018, 07:01:29 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
I hate to even say this, but let's not forget BW for the OAC. With JCU and Marietta still on the schedule, if they win out they would sit at 9-1 and I think a lock.
Either way, it's good to see some competition in the OAC. I would love to see the JCU-BW game on 11/10 at JCU (and my annual trip from Chicago back to the helm) be an essential play-in game!
So with input from others, right now it looks like:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll/BW (If anyone ends up a 1 loss runner-up)
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5.
Between: UWO, Linfield, CWRU*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2018, 02:59:22 PM
I'll work on an eliminator table tonight and possibly a mock selection, time permitting. I may hold off on a mock selection until the various regions post their weekly fan polls which I like to use a surrogate regional rankings.
Wally, I am still 2 ballots away from the complete set.
I have a long night at work so I probably will not have these up until 8PM CDT tomorrow.
Let's get an Eliminator table out there.
(https://i.imgur.com/VqZ4fLC.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/vAJCFmz.png)
A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading.
As a first pass, the teams that are eliminated here meet one of the following criteria:
- More than two losses. In the pool era (1999-present) no team with more than two losses has received an at-large bid. Depending on what happens in the NEWMAC, we may challenge that in 2018. But probably not.
- A team has two out of conference losses. In this scenario, a team not winning their league would necessarily pick up a third loss and wind up getting covered by the first point.
We've got about 100 teams still alive after we apply those two criteria. There are some other things in play like a UMAC team has never received an at-large bid. We can know with great certainty that this isn't the year the UMAC is getting two teams in the field, but to err on the side of caution we'll wait until we see regional rankings to confirm that 1 and 2 loss UMAC teams are too far down the at-large list in their own region to be considered. I'm sure there are a handful of teams out there that have two losses and haven't lost to a current league leader (yet) and will either win their league or get eliminated with a third loss- I'll give it a couple more weeks before I get that granular with schedule analysis. Most of that stuff works itself out so that we don't have to rip through two dozen different conference championship/runner-up scenarios here. If you're new to this, you'll see that the table whittles itself down organically week to week.
I'll get a Pool A/B/C projection up probably tomorrow night. I'll be interested to see if my projection matches up with what I'm seeing as the common logic that these bids are going to easily and obviously get dealt out to teams from the ASC/OAC/MIAC/NJAC/WIAC/CCIW.
I like this list and would add one more if teams in the CCIW and OAC continue to knock each other off. If Johns Hopkins knocks off Muhlenberg for the A in the Centennial and the Mules win out at 9-1 they could be in the conversation with continued mayhem. Next few weeks are going to be intense and fun to watch.
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 15, 2018, 09:14:10 PM
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 15, 2018, 07:01:29 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?
As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
(No particular order)
I hate to even say this, but let's not forget BW for the OAC. With JCU and Marietta still on the schedule, if they win out they would sit at 9-1 and I think a lock.
Either way, it's good to see some competition in the OAC. I would love to see the JCU-BW game on 11/10 at JCU (and my annual trip from Chicago back to the helm) be an essential play-in game!
So with input from others, right now it looks like:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll/BW (If anyone ends up a 1 loss runner-up)
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, CWRU*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
*If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff. Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table. I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it.
First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences.
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C. Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids.
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that). Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in.
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete.
Good? Great. Let's do this.
Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
(https://i.imgur.com/EmD4u6P.png)x
Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point.
Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC. Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage? Maybe. We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season. For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region. This week, that's going to be MIT.
Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)
So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here. Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season.
Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel
Not much to note from these lists. In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily. Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East. I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so.
And off we go.
Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)
I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals. What a board! So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs. The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season. The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU). Wesley is my pick.
Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)
So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record. John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.
Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)
This is where the early season predictions get weird. North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them. They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot. So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons. I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams. Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game. Teeny edge to St. Thomas.
Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)
Oshkosh is an interesting addition. They have a not so competitive loss to UWW. Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC. They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that. They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh). It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round. HSU is my pick to go in. They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags. The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.
Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)
So, quick sidebar on CWRU. They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now. Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade. But now they've got get away from Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them. So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J. The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there. Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central. In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles. As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick. If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc. This would be super close if these files were closed.
And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting. Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do. So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play. Lots can happen in the last month of the season.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2018, 10:54:00 PM
If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff. Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table. I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it.
First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences.
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C. Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids.
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that). Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in.
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete.
Good? Great. Let's do this.
Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
(https://i.imgur.com/EmD4u6P.png)x
Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point.
Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC. Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage? Maybe. We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season. For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region. This week, that's going to be MIT.
Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)
So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here. Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season.
Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel
Not much to note from these lists. In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily. Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East. I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so.
And off we go.
Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)
I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals. What a board! So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs. The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season. The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU). Wesley is my pick.
Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)
So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record. John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.
Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)
This is where the early season predictions get weird. North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them. They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot. So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons. I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams. Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game. Teeny edge to St. Thomas.
Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)
Oshkosh is an interesting addition. They have a not so competitive loss to UWW. Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC. They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that. They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh). It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round. HSU is my pick to go in. They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags. The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.
Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)
So, quick sidebar on CWRU. They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now. Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade. But now they've got get away from Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them. So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J. The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there. Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central. In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles. As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick. If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc. This would be super close if these files were closed.
And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting. Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do. So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play. Lots can happen in the last month of the season.
Thanks, Wally. Awesome as always!
+1!
Thanks Wally. As always, great analysis.
Definitely a bummer if what you say is true about CWRU, that they won't have a shot even with running table. But it is what it is. Do I dare say this year's team (at least on offense) looks better than last year's 11-1 team? But like you said, it doesn't matter.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2018, 10:54:00 PM
Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)
So, quick sidebar on CWRU. They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now. Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade. But now they've got get away from Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them. So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J. The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there. Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central. In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles. As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick. If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc. This would be super close if these files were closed.
There is a big reason for Rochester. The UAA still exists: http://uaasports.info/sports/fball/index It's just down to three teams. CWRU technically plays a 100% league schedule. Rochester is a UAA league game. In current affiliations. there are literally zero spots on the schedule for anyone else.
Locally, CWRU only battles John Carroll in the mighty preseason https://www.news-herald.com/sports/case-football-team-impresses-in-scrimmage-john-carroll-coach-says/article_321152ad-b54b-5a52-9d49-f5a60db0fe9e.html and has JV affiliations alternating games with Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll. Although it is nice to have local football synergies, it'd be incredible one day to have a local team (John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace, Mount Union) actually on a 10-game schedule.
Quote from: E.115 on October 17, 2018, 08:23:37 AM
Thanks Wally. As always, great analysis.
Definitely a bummer if what you say is true about CWRU, that they won't have a shot even with running table. But it is what it is. Do I dare say this year's team (at least on offense) looks better than last year's 11-1 team? But like you said, it doesn't matter.
There is a big reason for Rochester. The UAA still exists: http://uaasports.info/sports/fball/index It's just down to three teams. CWRU technically plays a 100% league schedule. Rochester is a UAA league game. In current affiliations. there are literally zero spots on the schedule for anyone else.
Locally, CWRU only battles John Carroll in the mighty preseason https://www.news-herald.com/sports/case-football-team-impresses-in-scrimmage-john-carroll-coach-says/article_321152ad-b54b-5a52-9d49-f5a60db0fe9e.html and has JV affiliations alternating games with Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll. Although it is nice to have local football synergies, it'd be incredible one day to have a local team (John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace, Mount Union) actually on a 10-game schedule.
As the cards sit right now, CWRU doesn't really look like they have a good chance. BUT- they do at least get on the board, which is more than a lot of other Pool C hopefuls can say (Linfield, Bethel, Centre...to name a few). At this point, that's not a bad place to start. CWRU seems unlikely to lose between and the end of the year. A lot of their at-large competition still have significant obstacles to clear- I think it's unlikely that they all get through unscathed. In this analysis, North Central is in CWRU's way but I don't think North Central is likely to be in this position in a month (they'll either win the CCIW or catch a second loss). Also, in my analysis last night, I took Hardin-Simmons off the board in Round 4. They could easily go off in Round 1, which brings CWRU to the table with four rounds of voting left and that can really change the calculus as well.
That's all a long way of saying that that there are a lot of moving parts and I think CWRU's position will only get better as we play out the last four weeks. I don't know if it's enough to get them invited, but they're in the conversation for sure.
I'm not in a position to judge CWRU's decision to continue on with the UAA football thing. If that relationship is important to those three schools, cool. It comes at a cost when we get into at-large selections, but I can respect the choice if the game is important for reasons beyond football.
This is a terrific analysis, thanks! Perhaps this is already answered, but next year , when Thomas More heads to the NAIA, does the NEWMAC move into the Pool A group? Is pool B eliminated?
It's not certain that the UAA thing will continue. CWRU's Media Guide has future schedule for 2020, but only the PAC games, no non-conference game.
Quote from: Oline89 on October 17, 2018, 10:32:17 AM
This is a terrific analysis, thanks! Perhaps this is already answered, but next year , when Thomas More heads to the NAIA, does the NEWMAC move into the Pool A group? Is pool B eliminated?
I think the NEWMAC concludes their provisional period after this year and gets an automatic qualifier starting next season. With Thomas More departing the division, that leaves us with zero Pool B eligible teams.
If the NEWMAC were still in the provisional period next season, I'm not sure that their 8 teams would be enough to create a Pool B bid (I don't know the exact access ratio off the top of my head...it's right on that line though). The Liberty League avoided being in no man's land next year with their Buffalo State onboarding. I'm glad we don't have a situation where teams in a conference don't have tournament access. That would have been a shame.
Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2018, 11:55:35 AM
Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.
So next year it is Pool A and Pool C?
Quote from: Oline89 on October 17, 2018, 01:07:34 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2018, 11:55:35 AM
Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.
So next year it is Pool A and Pool C?
Barring something unforeseen, yes, it should be.
But there won't be any additional at-large access. There will be 27 Pool A bids and still just the five Pool Cs.
True. That Pool B bid will go over to Pool A.
So will then be what was Pool C, now be called Pool B?
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 17, 2018, 01:50:36 PM
So will then be what was Pool C, now be called Pool B?
Still Pool C. Remember that the pool system applies to a bunch of other NCAA sponsored championships as well and they're going to like the consistency across the division.
When will first Regional Rankings come out?
Oct. 31.
The next couple of weeks are going to make poll C very interesting. If Muhlenberg defeats Hopkins, Wittenberg defeats Wabash, and Brockport defeats Cortland giving each losing team 2 loses likely eliminating the losers, but if the results are reversed Poll C gets crazy. With the first scenario Hardin Simmons wins out they are in, the winner of the BW/ John Carroll gets in, the winner of the Bethel/St. Thomas gets in, leaving 2 spots left for Oshkosh, Salisbury, if they beat Wesley or Frostburg, CWRU if they win out, Linfield would only have 1 D3 loss, and Centre if they win out. There are several other teams that could finish with 1 loss, but are in conferences that generally do not get 2 bids. If the first scenario is reversed you now add Muhlenberg, Wittenberg, and Brockport to the mix. From the group of Brockport, Wittenberg, Muhlenberg, Hardin Simmons, BW/John Carroll, Bethel/St. Thomas, Oshkosh, Salisbury, CWRU, Linfield, and Centre, who gets in? That would be tough decision for any committee.
The access ratio in D3 for basketball, baseball\, volleyball and soccer is 1 bid : 6.5 eligible teams.
We are rapidly approaching 250 teams.
250 / 6.5 = 38.46, truncated to 38 bids.
Can you imagine what the playoffs would look like if we had 11 Pool C bids?
We are, but make sure to drop the NESCAC's 10 teams from your calculations.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2018, 11:41:14 PM
We are, but make sure to drop the NESCAC's 10 teams from your calculations.
One of my co-workers played football at one of the NESCAC schools and he indicated that he would have loved to compete outside of the conference. He would have insisted the NESCAC schools play at least 1 OOC game and compete in the national playoff. He indicated that although he enjoyed playing with his teammates, competing for the NESCAC championship and such, he indicated that there was always the "What If?" He believe the best team in the NESCAC could not only beat the other New England teams, but win a playoff game.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 17, 2018, 08:59:02 AM
As the cards sit right now, CWRU doesn't really look like they have a good chance. BUT- they do at least get on the board, which is more than a lot of other Pool C hopefuls can say (Linfield, Bethel, Centre...to name a few).
I'm probably missing the obvious, but why do you have UST slotted ahead of BU at this point? I realize you've got to project and prognosticate, but is that just based on recent year's performance? To date, BU has a much better SoS, and better result against SJU (most Johnnie backers felt BU was a much stiffer test).
Questions aside, I think UST/BU winner is a lock (assuming they hold serve against the MIAC dregs). And that UST/BU loser is on the outside looking in. Barring chaos.
Quote from: hazzben on October 22, 2018, 01:15:47 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 17, 2018, 08:59:02 AM
As the cards sit right now, CWRU doesn't really look like they have a good chance. BUT- they do at least get on the board, which is more than a lot of other Pool C hopefuls can say (Linfield, Bethel, Centre...to name a few).
I'm probably missing the obvious, but why do you have UST slotted ahead of BU at this point? I realize you've got to project and prognosticate, but is that just based on recent year's performance? To date, BU has a much better SoS, and better result against SJU (most Johnnie backers felt BU was a much stiffer test).
Questions aside, I think UST/BU winner is a lock (assuming they hold serve against the MIAC dregs). And that UST/BU loser is on the outside looking in. Barring chaos.
I haven't rerun anything through this weekend's results, but at the time of last week's projection, St. Thomas was in line ahead of Bethel because that's where the West region fan poll (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8239.msg1890530#msg1890530) had them and I'm using the fan polls as surrogate regional rankings until next Wednesday.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 22, 2018, 01:24:05 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 22, 2018, 01:15:47 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 17, 2018, 08:59:02 AM
As the cards sit right now, CWRU doesn't really look like they have a good chance. BUT- they do at least get on the board, which is more than a lot of other Pool C hopefuls can say (Linfield, Bethel, Centre...to name a few).
I'm probably missing the obvious, but why do you have UST slotted ahead of BU at this point? I realize you've got to project and prognosticate, but is that just based on recent year's performance? To date, BU has a much better SoS, and better result against SJU (most Johnnie backers felt BU was a much stiffer test).
Questions aside, I think UST/BU winner is a lock (assuming they hold serve against the MIAC dregs). And that UST/BU loser is on the outside looking in. Barring chaos.
I haven't rerun anything through this weekend's results, but at the time of last week's projection, St. Thomas was in line ahead of Bethel because that's where the West region fan poll (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8239.msg1890530#msg1890530) had them and I'm using the fan polls as surrogate regional rankings until next Wednesday.
Makes sense. Thanks for the info. And all the work on this!
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 21, 2018, 11:28:32 PM
The access ratio in D3 for basketball, baseball\, volleyball and soccer is 1 bid : 6.5 eligible teams.
We are rapidly approaching 250 teams.
250 / 6.5 = 38.46, truncated to 38 bids.
Can you imagine what the playoffs would look like if we had 11 Pool C bids?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2018, 11:41:14 PM
We are, but make sure to drop the NESCAC's 10 teams from your calculations.
240 / 6.5 = 36.92
241 / 6.5 = 37.07
;)
Final:
UW-Stevens Point 27
UW-Oshkosh 21
Quote from: Titan Q on October 27, 2018, 05:01:52 PM
Final:
UW-Stevens Point 27
UW-Oshkosh 21
That's a big one that'll have a cascading affect on Pool C. UWSP is not very good. Means WIAC has no shot at Pool C.
Central lost to Coe in the ARC as well. Dubuque and Simpson square off next week. If Simpson wins, that would be a boost to Bethel's Pool C resume.
Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival ;)) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.
Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.
He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.
That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League. (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old. Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Quote from: hazzben on October 27, 2018, 06:59:02 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on October 27, 2018, 05:01:52 PM
Final:
UW-Stevens Point 27
UW-Oshkosh 21
That's a big one that'll have a cascading affect on Pool C. UWSP is not very good. Means WIAC has no shot at Pool C.
Central lost to Coe in the ARC as well. Dubuque and Simpson square off next week. If Simpson wins, that would be a boost to Bethel's Pool C resume.
Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival ;)) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.
Not sure right now if Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not. Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups. If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament. If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 27, 2018, 07:33:16 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 27, 2018, 06:59:02 PM
Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival ;)) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.
Not sure right now if Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not. Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups. If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament. If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid.
That's what I was trying to say. Loss puts Witt in Pool C convo, though they've still got a shot at Pool A because Wabash has some good teams remaining to beat. Fun stuff
Quote from: hazzben on October 27, 2018, 07:48:51 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 27, 2018, 07:33:16 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 27, 2018, 06:59:02 PM
Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival ;)) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.
Not sure right now if Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not. Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups. If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament. If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid.
That's what I was trying to say. Loss puts Witt in Pool C convo, though they've still got a shot at Pool A because Wabash has some good teams remaining to beat. Fun stuff
Stay tuned on this NCAC tiebreak stuff. Seeing some things where some Wabash and Witt folks think a three way tiebreak favors Denison due to longest active winning streak. I think "fewest road losses" comes in to play sooner than that though. Road losses would be: Denison 0, Witt 0, Wabash 1. That would seem to eliminate Wabash, then Witt's h2h prevails. But nothing is official. Except that right now nobody seems to think a three way tiebreak favors Wabash, which is really the larger takeaway. :)
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2018, 07:24:22 PM
Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.
He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.
That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League. (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old. Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Will also affect Empire 8 next year, thy will be down to 7, LL up to 7 with Buff St joining LL
Quote from: Oline89 on October 27, 2018, 09:42:53 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2018, 07:24:22 PM
Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.
He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.
That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League. (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old. Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Will also affect Empire 8 next year, thy will be down to 7, LL up to 7 with Buff St joining LL
To clarify that point, I understand that that legislation would need to go through all of the necessary committees and then voted at the Annual meeting.
Or, have the Upstate D3 Championship game between the E8 and LL winners for the Pool A bid!
Quote from: wesleydad on October 21, 2018, 07:04:01 AM
The next couple of weeks are going to make poll C very interesting. If Muhlenberg defeats Hopkins, Wittenberg defeats Wabash, and Brockport defeats Cortland giving each losing team 2 loses likely eliminating the losers, but if the results are reversed Poll C gets crazy. ...If the first scenario is reversed you now add Muhlenberg, Wittenberg, and Brockport to the mix. From the group of Brockport, Wittenberg, Muhlenberg, Hardin Simmons, BW/John Carroll, Bethel/St. Thomas, Oshkosh, Salisbury, CWRU, Linfield, and Centre, who gets in? That would be tough decision for any committee.
Well, Pool C just got crazy. As we know, 2 of the 3 reverse scenarios happened today, with Brockport vs Cortland next week.
Seems to me Muhlenberg's loss to JHU raises the question for pool C who's gonna be 2 and 3 behind Hardin Simmons in RR, CWRU or Muhlenberg. That is assuming every one in play wins out. Guess we'll know Wednesday. I'm not going to speculate.
I don't think it's been mentioned here yet. Del Val and Misericordia don't play each other in the MAC this year. They could both end up 9-1 and unbeaten in conference play. I'm assuming Del Val would have the better Pool C shot but I believe they're going to end up with the Pool A on tiebreakers.
Quote from: ADL70 on October 28, 2018, 12:37:52 AM
Seems to me Muhlenberg's loss to JHU raises the question for pool C who's gonna be 2 and 3 behind Hardin Simmons in RR, CWRU or Muhlenberg. That is assuming every one in play wins out. Guess we'll know Wednesday. I'm not going to speculate.
CWRU - 7-1, 0.452 SOS (ouch), 0-1 vs. RRO (L to W&J)
Muhlenberg- 7-1, 0.583 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO (L to JHU), possibly 1-1 vs. RRO if Thomas More is ranked
The SOS is a huge differentiator, obviously. I think W&J and JHU should wind up in same-ish places in the rankings, so it's not like we can say Muhlenberg lost to South #8 while CWRU lost to South #2. There's not a lot of difference in the RRO
results. I think you'll need voices on that South RAC that bring strong and persuasive evidence outside of the primary criteria for CWRU to be ranked ahead of Muhlenberg.
Updated eliminator table:
(https://i.imgur.com/iL6Yruf.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/aCFNUY4.png)
A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading.
Most of the new eliminations (marked with white text) since the first table went up on 10/15 are teams that have since picked up a third loss. Berry, St. John's, and UWW are out because they've qualified via Pool A. We'll get a bunch more of these next week. We'll also get a bunch more once we see the regional rankings and confirm that teams out of the UMAC, NACC, etc. aren't on the radar.
#15-IWU (7-1, 7-0) and #12-North Central (7-1, 6-1) play in Bloomington next weekend -- the winner almost certainly gets the CCIW's AQ, and the loser goes to the Pool C bubble with 2 losses.
As a Pool C candidate, NCC would most likely have 1 win vs RRO (Wash U).
IWU, as a Pool C, would probably have 2 wins vs RRO (Wheaton, Wash U)...if Wash U wins out (at Millikin, vs Carroll).
Would 2-loss IWU be competitive at the end of the Pool C process due to the 2 wins vs RRO? From what I am seeing here, no other Pool C candidate will have 2 wins vs RRO? That would seem to be a big advantage at the end of the selection process. Or is 2 losses simply the end of the road/season over?
(Seems like, as a Pool C candidate, 2-loss IWU would be stacked up in the North right behind the John Carroll/Baldwin winner...so the Titans would hit the board as long as JC/BW was selected in spots 1-4.)
Quote from: Titan Q on October 28, 2018, 09:33:29 AM
#15-IWU (7-1, 7-0) and #12-North Central (7-1, 6-1) play in Bloomington next weekend -- the winner almost certainly gets the CCIW's AQ, and the loser goes to the Pool C bubble with 2 losses.
As a Pool C candidate, NCC would most likely have 1 win vs RRO (Wash U).
IWU, as a Pool C, would probably have 2 wins vs RRO (Wheaton, Wash U)...if Wash U wins out (at Millikin, vs Carroll).
Would 2-loss IWU be competitive at the end of the Pool C process due to the 2 wins vs RRO? From what I am seeing here, no other Pool C candidate will have 2 wins vs RRO? That would seem to be a big advantage at the end of the selection process. Or is 2 losses simply the end of the road/season over?
(Seems like, as a Pool C candidate, 2-loss IWU would be stacked up in the North right behind the John Carroll/Baldwin winner...so the Titans would hit the board as long as JC/BW was selected in spots 1-4.)
It really all just depends on what the rankings look like and where IWU would land in the region. 2-loss IWU (or North Central) would seem to battling for rankings position with not just the JCU/B-W winner, but also the loser of that game, a potential 1-loss NCAC team, and MSJ (single loss to ranked Franklin, one loss to FCS Morehead St.). It's a crowded house right now behind that 9-1 OAC runner up. 2-1 vs. RRO would certainly be nice if IWU finds themselves in Pool C limbo, but definitely no guarantee that it would be enough to get them in. It is worth pointing out that two weeks ago the consensus seemed to be that multiple loss teams were doomed. Since then, Wesley has not won a game and Oshkosh has been taken off the board. How many more "locks" can play themselves off of the mountain in the next two Saturdays?
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2018, 09:12:41 AM
Updated eliminator table:
(https://i.imgur.com/iL6Yruf.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/aCFNUY4.png)
A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading.
Most of the new eliminations (marked with white text) since the first table went up on 10/15 are teams that have since picked up a third loss. Berry, St. John's, and UWW are out because they've qualified via Pool A. We'll get a bunch more of these next week. We'll also get a bunch more once we see the regional rankings and confirm that teams out of the UMAC, NACC, etc. aren't on the radar.
In the LL, I think there is still a slim possibility for Hobart to win. If RPI loses next 2, and Hobart wins out, then Hob will be 4-1 and Union, RPI, Ith are all 3-2. So for at least one more week, Hobart should stay out of the red, I think ???
Wheaton will have a 2-1 record against RROs and a superior SOS to most 2 loss teams. That only helps them if IWU wins the AQ. Wheaton will be a very competitive 2 loss candidate if it gets to that and IWU wins the AQ. This also requires NCC to stay ranked which wouldn't be a sure thing.
Quote from: Oline89 on October 28, 2018, 07:58:10 PM
In the LL, I think there is still a slim possibility for Hobart to win. If RPI loses next 2, and Hobart wins out, then Hob will be 4-1 and Union, RPI, Ith are all 3-2. So for at least one more week, Hobart should stay out of the red, I think ???
These tables are tracking teams still alive for at-large bids. Hobart can still win the LL, but as a member of the three loss club, they won't be getting a Pool C invitation.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2018, 10:03:45 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on October 28, 2018, 09:33:29 AM
#15-IWU (7-1, 7-0) and #12-North Central (7-1, 6-1) play in Bloomington next weekend -- the winner almost certainly gets the CCIW's AQ, and the loser goes to the Pool C bubble with 2 losses.
As a Pool C candidate, NCC would most likely have 1 win vs RRO (Wash U).
IWU, as a Pool C, would probably have 2 wins vs RRO (Wheaton, Wash U)...if Wash U wins out (at Millikin, vs Carroll).
Would 2-loss IWU be competitive at the end of the Pool C process due to the 2 wins vs RRO? From what I am seeing here, no other Pool C candidate will have 2 wins vs RRO? That would seem to be a big advantage at the end of the selection process. Or is 2 losses simply the end of the road/season over?
(Seems like, as a Pool C candidate, 2-loss IWU would be stacked up in the North right behind the John Carroll/Baldwin winner...so the Titans would hit the board as long as JC/BW was selected in spots 1-4.)
It really all just depends on what the rankings look like and where IWU would land in the region. 2-loss IWU (or North Central) would seem to battling for rankings position with not just the JCU/B-W winner, but also the loser of that game, a potential 1-loss NCAC team, and MSJ (single loss to ranked Franklin, one loss to FCS Morehead St.). It's a crowded house right now behind that 9-1 OAC runner up. 2-1 vs. RRO would certainly be nice if IWU finds themselves in Pool C limbo, but definitely no guarantee that it would be enough to get them in. It is worth pointing out that two weeks ago the consensus seemed to be that multiple loss teams were doomed. Since then, Wesley has not won a game and Oshkosh has been taken off the board. How many more "locks" can play themselves off of the mountain in the next two Saturdays?
And also an NCC loss all but eliminates them, because they would fall back BEHIND Wheaton due to the Head to Head. NCC would never see the board to have their name called on Sunday.
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 29, 2018, 12:31:52 AM
And also an NCC loss all but eliminates them, because they would fall back BEHIND Wheaton due to the Head to Head. NCC would never see the board to have their name called on Sunday.
Agree that the North Central path is not good with a late season loss. The h2h with Wheaton is a killer and their noncon game with LFC isn't helping. Unless they scored big points with the committee chair when they played LFC. :)
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2018, 08:59:23 PM
Quote from: Oline89 on October 28, 2018, 07:58:10 PM
In the LL, I think there is still a slim possibility for Hobart to win. If RPI loses next 2, and Hobart wins out, then Hob will be 4-1 and Union, RPI, Ith are all 3-2. So for at least one more week, Hobart should stay out of the red, I think ???
These tables are tracking teams still alive for at-large bids. Hobart can still win the LL, but as a member of the three loss club, they won't be getting a Pool C invitation.
I knew that, sorry!!
Current one loss West teams with their current SOS number
Linfield .577
Bethel .564
Monmouth .513
St. Thomas .493
St. Norbert .453
Martin Luther .433
MacMurray .322
Wally, what is your take on how 2 and 3 loss teams factor into things in the West? I suspect you'll be waiting for the first set of Regional Rankings to see what the committee decides. In the list above MacMurray and Martin Luther play one another this coming week, and Bethel and St. Thomas play one another in week 11. So we'll be down to a maximum of 5 one loss teams in the West. Do you think any 2 or 3 loss teams get put ahead of these one loss teams in the Regional Rankings? Historically, this seems to be the precedent.
It's a good question, art. I think there are any number of ways the West rankings could line up on Wednesday. I'm as curious as anybody else to see what they're going to do with Linfield and then St. Thomas/Bethel.
Linfield's out of division result is thorny. Some people will say "it doesn't really count". I think that's oversimplifying and a little bit irresponsible. It's not like Linfield lost to Eastern Washington. They lost to a not-very-good NAIA team and I don't think that should be ignored.
I'm also curious to see what they'll do with St. John's and UW-Whitewater. Not Pool C talk here, but those teams are in play for #1 seeds and how they get ordered this week is a pretty big deal.
So we'll have to just wait and see. The first rankings often throw curves and can be pretty unpredictable, particularly after we've been conditioned to contextualize teams' relativism through the top 25 poll. The regional rankings are a totally different exercise (Bethel fans rejoice).
As a Linfield fan, I'd love to see them get a Pool C bid but am not expecting it (assuming that they win out and finish 7-2 (7-1 in D3 play). The out of division loss to Carroll isn't going to help especially with Carroll standing at 4-5 on the season.
Can only hope that it makes financial sense to send Linfield to Whitworth, SCIAC winner to MHB, and Hardin Simmons to someone or have someone go play them...
They won't put Linfield in the field solely because they're a cheap first-round game for Whitworth.
Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on October 29, 2018, 02:12:03 PM
As a Linfield fan, I'd love to see them get a Pool C bid but am not expecting it (assuming that they win out and finish 7-2 (7-1 in D3 play). The out of division loss to Carroll isn't going to help especially with Carroll standing at 4-5 on the season.
Can only hope that it makes financial sense to send Linfield to Whitworth, SCIAC winner to MHB, and Hardin Simmons to someone or have someone go play them...
I think it would be Hardin Simmons to Whitworth (if they remain undefeated), wouldn't surprise me if they did switch home/away and UMHB hosting SCIAC champion.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2018, 07:24:22 PM
Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.
He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.
That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League. (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old. Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
I finally had a chance to listen to this podcast. It does not appear that changing the pool A rule (to include only conferences with 8 or more) is likely. It sounded like it would require a change of bylaws or a large group of schools (20?) to present at the NCAA convention. At present, in 2019, there will be 27 pool A bids and 5 Pool C.
I don't think that this is a stretch. Indeed, the NCAA Division III membership has not been overly friendly to football's requests, but this doesn't have a financial impact, like some of the other things football schools have asked for.
I don't think it would be impossible to find two conferences willing to sponsor.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2018, 02:59:04 PM
I don't think that this is a stretch. Indeed, the NCAA Division III membership has not been overly friendly to football's requests, but this doesn't have a financial impact, like some of the other things football schools have asked for.
I don't think it would be impossible to find two conferences willing to sponsor.
Are the E8, Liberty League, ECFC and CCC the only conferences with under 8 (all are at 7), that would be affected if a change was instituted?
For now, yes.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2018, 01:50:13 PM
So we'll have to just wait and see. The first rankings often throw curves and can be pretty unpredictable, particularly after we've been conditioned to contextualize teams' relativism through the top 25 poll. The regional rankings are a totally different exercise (Bethel fans rejoice).
To speak to this, why are they different? What instructions do the regional committees get that's something other than "give us your order of the best 10 teams in the region". And what would the point be of instructions any different than that?
I realize a few key games are still to be played that may solve any discrepancies between the RR's and the top 25 poll. I also understand the top 25 poll is of no use in the playoff selection process. It just baffles me how an RR could be subtly but notably different than the contextualized view of teams. Yes, reserving the right to look at you, West RR committee.
Quote from: wm4 on October 29, 2018, 05:38:46 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2018, 01:50:13 PM
So we'll have to just wait and see. The first rankings often throw curves and can be pretty unpredictable, particularly after we've been conditioned to contextualize teams' relativism through the top 25 poll. The regional rankings are a totally different exercise (Bethel fans rejoice).
To speak to this, why are they different? What instructions do the regional committees get that's something other than "give us your order of the best 10 teams in the region". And what would the point be of instructions any different than that?
I realize a few key games are still to be played that may solve any discrepancies between the RR's and the top 25 poll. I also understand the top 25 poll is of no use in the playoff selection process. It just baffles me how an RR could be subtly but notably different than the contextualized view of teams. Yes, reserving the right to look at you, West RR committee.
You must not have much experience with this WM4. I think Wally is simply saying the D3.com top 25 has little to do with the regional rankings and we will get the post (on multiple boards) that points out "how silly it is" that team X is regionally ranked ahead of team Y when the order is reversed in the poll. That will happen.
As far as the committees, they all look at the same criteria and somehow come up with different interpretations and orders. This varies year over year as the committees change people and it often is different from region to region as one committee may favor win % while another favors SOS or RRO's. There are nuances. Others on here have followed it quite closely and know more than I do.
The funny part is, I *do* have a bunch of experience w/ this process and I still don't understand why RROs sometimes come out the way they do.
On the podcast, Chairman Catanzano pointed out they had their mock RROs last week. The national committee uses those mock RROs to see how the different committees weighed certain criteria. Then the national committee uses the results of the mock to "recenter" the regional committees on criteria to be used. Seems that would be a great opportunity to reduce the "how silly it is" occurrences.
You have a good point in that the more experience one has, the less one knows about the workings of the various committees.
Quote from: wm4 on October 29, 2018, 05:38:46 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2018, 01:50:13 PM
So we'll have to just wait and see. The first rankings often throw curves and can be pretty unpredictable, particularly after we've been conditioned to contextualize teams' relativism through the top 25 poll. The regional rankings are a totally different exercise (Bethel fans rejoice).
To speak to this, why are they different? What instructions do the regional committees get that's something other than "give us your order of the best 10 teams in the region". And what would the point be of instructions any different than that?
I realize a few key games are still to be played that may solve any discrepancies between the RR's and the top 25 poll. I also understand the top 25 poll is of no use in the playoff selection process. It just baffles me how an RR could be subtly but notably different than the contextualized view of teams. Yes, reserving the right to look at you, West RR committee.
I was thinking in the extreme cases where a team like Eureka- undefeated but getting zero attention in the Top 25- may well be ranked tomorrow ahead of a number of teams that are getting poll attention. Or maybe somebody like Western Connecticut pops up at the tail end of the East rankings in front of some other multiple loss teams that would be heavily favored against WCSU. I mentioned Bethel specifically in my earlier because even though Bethel is 400 poll points away from St. Thomas, they ought to be much closer and possibly ahead of St. Thomas per the selection criteria. My guess for tomorrow is that St. Thomas is ranked higher, but they should be much closer in the RRs than what the top 25 indicates.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2018, 09:35:30 AM
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 29, 2018, 12:31:52 AM
And also an NCC loss all but eliminates them, because they would fall back BEHIND Wheaton due to the Head to Head. NCC would never see the board to have their name called on Sunday.
Agree that the North Central path is not good with a late season loss. The h2h with Wheaton is a killer and their noncon game with LFC isn't helping. Unless they scored big points with the committee chair when they played LFC. :)
Yes, good call. North Central has no chance at Pool C since they would be behind Wheaton.
I think a 2-loss CCIW team with 2 wins vs RRO would be competitive in that final Pool C spot.
Quote from: Titan Q on October 30, 2018, 07:55:13 PM
I think a 2-loss CCIW team with 2 wins vs RRO would be competitive in that final Pool C spot.
...with 2 losses to RROs, as we might see in other sports like baseball and basketball, going 2-2 vs RRO's IMHO.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2018, 08:37:37 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on October 30, 2018, 07:55:13 PM
I think a 2-loss CCIW team with 2 wins vs RRO would be competitive in that final Pool C spot.
...with 2 losses to RROs, as we might see in other sports like baseball and basketball, going 2-2 vs RRO's IMHO.
Is any consideration given by the National Committee to where those teams are ranked in a given region.
For instance, Team A is 2-1 vs RRO's, but the two wins are against the 8th and 9th ranked teams in their respective regions. Team B is 1-2 against RRO's, but the two losses are to teams ranked in the top 3-4 of their respective regions.
I'm obviously thinking of Bethel and UST here, where each will carry a loss to an undefeated team in the mix for a top seed. Honestly, as familiar as I am with Pool C stuff (and I know it shifts a bit each year), I'm not sure I know the answer to this. My gut is that the national committee would dig a bit into who the RRO's are when the compare the four teams at the table.
My gut is, if they are looking at teams with 3 to 4 RRO's results, one of the questions human nature says they ask is, 'how strong are those RRO's' and right behind that, 'are those RRO's in the playoff field'?
A loss to a RRO that doesn't make the field looks different than a loss to a team that's in and has a good resume in their own right. At least that's how I assume and imagine this works out.
Another caveat, wondering if the National Committee looks at and discusses the relative strengths of the regions. Would love to be a fly on the wall to see how they handle this type of stuff.
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Rankings are out:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Thanks Pat, queued up for my flight to Boston tomorrow :)
Quote from: hazzben on October 31, 2018, 02:25:08 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Thanks Pat, queued up for my flight to Boston tomorrow :)
Boston, eh? You in beantown much or is this a one-off?
Quote from: SaintsFAN on October 31, 2018, 04:36:06 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 31, 2018, 02:25:08 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Thanks Pat, queued up for my flight to Boston tomorrow :)
Boston, eh? You in beantown much or is this a one-off?
First trip. Little late fall getaway for a long weekend. Any must sees or eats?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Pool B (Thomas More, West NE, or Merchant Marine)
CWRU IN, Centre OUT, Muhlenberg OUT? Am I mis-reading? Not sure what you're smoking.
I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs. If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1890768#msg1890768). So let's dive in.
Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
(https://i.imgur.com/f7BBHAF.png)
St. John's, Berry, and Whitewater have all clinched (golden ticket status noted appropriately). Many, many more coming this weekend. Other changes/notes on Pool A:
- The unofficial word has Denison winning a potential NCAC tiebreak and that's been noted here.
- I'm still hedging toward Wartburg in the ARC, but it could go any of about four different ways.
Pool B
Pool B is a touch more interesting now with MIT not being undefeated. Based on the rankings, we're going to have Merchant Marine on the board from the East and Thomas More from the South.
Round 1:
E8 Merchant Marine: 6-1, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.603 (10th) SOS
S10 Thomas More: 6-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.555 (49th)
Last week TMC had an SOS advantage over MIT, but now that SOS advantage swings dramatically over to the Mariners. Classic case here where the NCAA's SOS metric isn't great because I'm having a hard time buying a NEWMAC schedule as being "stronger" than what the Saints have done so far this year. But the numbers are the numbers and I think the vote swings toward Merchant Marine and their top 10 schedule strength. Thomas More can absolutely play in though if they win at St. John's in Week 11.
The remaining at-large tables shake out this way:
East: Cortland, Salisbury, Ithaca
North: John Carroll, North Central, Baldwin Wallace, Wabash, Wittenberg
South: Centre, Hardin-Simmons, Muhlenberg, CWRU
West: Bethel, Linfield, St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Simpson, UW-La Crosse
Pretty different table than we had last week, yeah? The regional rankings can definitely shuffle the deck and have done so here.
Pool C:
Round 1:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
4W Bethel - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.564 (42nd)
(Bethel, JCU, Centre, Cortland)
I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals. That's the line I opened this section with two weeks ago! Life comes at you fast. So this board isn't quite as star-powered as it was two weeks ago, but that actually makes things a little easier. Centre has a dominant SOS, JCU has a pretty good SOS and a pretty impressive result against N1 (which is like a super-RRO, really), but Bethel stands out to me with that RRO win over Simpson. It's the only quality win on the board right now and I'm putting the Royals in first.
Round 2:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(JCU, Centre, Linfield, Cortland)
So much for writing Linfield off. They're here and they're here pretty early in the process. Now, what the summary above doesn't show is a second loss to NAIA Carroll(Mont.) and that loss is in fact useable data in the secondary criteria. I'm not ignoring it or letting Linfield off the hook for that game. I do think that Linfield's 100-point advantage over Cortland is noteworthy and I'm placing Linfield in front of Cortland. Which brings me to JCU and Centre. JCU took Mount Union to the wire which is an enormous feat. Centre had Berry into overtime, which is an impressive result, but it just isn't the same. Centre has a healthy SOS edge here, but I think JCU has the far better result and I'm putting the Streaks in. If Maryville somehow edges in to these rankings, I think we might do this differently.
Round 3:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Centre, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
North Central is the noob and North Central doesn't actually present very well if I'm being honest. The North RACs decision to not rank Wheaton or WashU costs North Central some valuable criteria pros. My analysis has already drawn clear differentiation between Centre and Linfield and I don't think I can place North Central in over Centre given the current set of rankings. Centre is in. I am going to place North Central ahead of Linfield largely because of Linfield's second loss.
Round 4:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
5S Hardin-Simmons - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.571 (37th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(HSU, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
Hardin-Simmons we've long assumed to be a lock to make this field, but their placement behind Centre puts them much closer to the bubble than we thought they'd be. I do think they present pretty well against this current board thought. They are just 0-1 vs. RROs, but their RRO loss is to S1, and like Mount Union, UMHB losses don't sting quite as bad. And while HSU wasn't anywhere close to winning that game, they did perform far better than anybody else has against UMHB. I'm moving Hardin-Simmons to the front of the line and right into the field. North Central not getting RRO credit here really hurts the Cardinals.
Round 5:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
6S Muhlenberg - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.583 (27th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Muhlenberg, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
Here come the Mules! Guess what? Muhlenberg has the best SOS at the table and they are also the only team at the table right now with an RRO (vs. S10 TMC). That's a pretty good looking at-large profile, really. They have a respectable loss to S3- something that I also look for here when I look at results vs. ranked teams are point margins. Not so much that one team lost by 4 and another lost by 7 so the first one is better. But significant margins. Muhlenberg's loss isn't at all bad to a very good team. North Central has a wipeout on their profile to an unranked team (we know Wheaton is strong, but today, they are unranked and it is what it is). Linfield has a second loss that I'm not ignoring. Cortland has been here the whole time, but despite being the top at-large team in their region, Cortland doesn't present well at all as a team with a sub-.500 SOS and no games against ranked teams. So I'm putting the Mules in.
And that's the field as I see it today. Some things to keep in mind- this is a snapshot as of right now and not a projection as to what I think the field will look like in 10 days. North Central is either going to beat IWU and qualify through Pool A or not even be in this discussion. Bethel has to get through St. Thomas to be the first team off this board. And even then might not be the first team off if JCU beats Baldwin Wallace and notches an RRO win. And Simpson could well drop out which would cost Bethel a valuable RRO win. I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East. Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down. So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.
Linfield acts like a blocker here thanks to its secondary criteria -- but St. Thomas wouldn't be selected with their current resume, either, so it's no big deal.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 01, 2018, 09:49:29 PM
I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs. If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1890768#msg1890768). So let's dive in.
I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East. Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down. So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.
Wally, do you think there's any chance Cortland stays RR if they go 7-3? (I'm thinking like a narrow, 1-point loss to port, and a decent showing in a loss to IC). I'm trying to envision a scenario in which a first-team up IC has a resume worthy of even a serious look, and I'd have to think they'd need to have a RR win for that to happen.
Quote from: Bombers798891 on November 02, 2018, 09:31:09 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 01, 2018, 09:49:29 PM
I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs. If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1890768#msg1890768). So let's dive in.
I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East. Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down. So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.
Wally, do you think there's any chance Cortland stays RR if they go 7-3? (I'm thinking like a narrow, 1-point loss to port, and a decent showing in a loss to IC). I'm trying to envision a scenario in which a first-team up IC has a resume worthy of even a serious look, and I'd have to think they'd need to have a RR win for that to happen.
The last time we had a three-loss team in the RRs was Salisbury in final rankings, E10. That team had a 0.546 SOS, 0-2 vs. RROs...that would be similar to where Cortland might wind up. So it's possible? I think it would help if Merchant Marine picks up another loss. Or Misericordia. Or Montclair. It gets really congested there at the end of the East rankings and what's just off of the end of those rankings.
I think Ithaca's best chance at an invitation involves the following two things:
- The at-large deck in the East gets cleared. That means Brockport or Frostburg don't fall into Pool C. Probably means Cortland finishes 0-2 and Salisbury finishes 0-2. That should get Ithaca to the front of the East line.
- One of the top at-large teams in another region has to stumble. Given the gaps that exist in the MIAC, I don't see any way for the Bethel/St. Thomas winner to finish with a second loss, so I won't entertain that. But Centre could stumble. Baldwin Wallace could lose to ONU but beat John Carroll. Either of those things gets Ithaca one step closer.
That combo, I think, gives Ithaca a fighting chance.
Another fine job Wally :-*
OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture. North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.
Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.
Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking
Quote from: Titan Q on November 03, 2018, 05:18:14 PM
OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture. North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.
Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.
Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking
I think the RRs will shake things out - but I do believe that the JCU / BW will be on the board first, and possibly Wittenberg / Wabash before we get to two loss teams. If Denison gets ranked then those are results for the NCAC folks that may put them ahead of IWU.
Two losses will be a tough one to break through, since you'll have Salisbury, Ithaca, Muhlenberg, Centre, St. Thomas, etc. on other boards at some point.
The Titans friend will be week 11 chaos.
Quote from: smedindy on November 03, 2018, 05:33:57 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 03, 2018, 05:18:14 PM
OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture. North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.
Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.
Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking
I think the RRs will shake things out - but I do believe that the JCU / BW will be on the board first, and possibly Wittenberg / Wabash before we get to two loss teams. If Denison gets ranked then those are results for the NCAC folks that may put them ahead of IWU.
Two losses will be a tough one to break through, since you'll have Salisbury, Ithaca, Muhlenberg, Centre, St. Thomas, etc. on other boards at some point.
The Titans friend will be week 11 chaos.
Well a spot has opened up at the bottom of the North rankings with Eureka losing today. Who will slip in to boost conference foes? Plus Franklin had a tougher than preferred win against Bluffton so their ranking doesn't feel all that secure.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2018, 09:29:32 AM
I mentioned Bethel specifically in my earlier because even though Bethel is 400 poll points away from St. Thomas, they ought to be much closer and possibly ahead of St. Thomas per the selection criteria. My guess for tomorrow is that St. Thomas is ranked higher, but they should be much closer in the RRs than what the top 25 indicates.
A couple weeks ago, when ST was ranked #7 and Bethel was ranked #35, a certain poster on the OAC board suggested that such a disparity was unwarranted based on common opponents and overall results.
Tragically, said poster was immediately smacked down by Pat "The Assassin" Coleman (aka The Minnesota Moline Meanie).
Now modesty forbids me from naming that OAC poster - but he does appear more and more perspicacious by the moment. It's just hard to believe that 27 teams could fit in between ST and Bethel.
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
LaCrosse is also probably still a RRO so....IWU probably has 2 losses (and anywhere from 0-2 wins) against RRO--also--i'm not sure you can just slide IWU into the spot behind John Carrol---when NCC was put there it was with 1 loss, IWU now has 2 and that might have an impact on your projection. A team like Wittenberg, with only one loss, could jump over IWU. It really depends on what value the committee places on the individual criteria. A lot of uncertainty but they could be in the discussion....
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2018, 09:36:24 AM
LaCrosse is also probably still a RRO so....IWU probably has 2 losses (and anywhere from 0-2 wins) against RRO--also--i'm not sure you can just slide IWU into the spot behind John Carrol---when NCC was put there it was with 1 loss, IWU now has 2 and that might have an impact on your projection. A team like Wittenberg, with only one loss, could jump over IWU. It really depends on what value the committee places on the individual criteria. A lot of uncertainty but they could be in the discussion....
I forgot about LaCrosse. I think another RRO, even a loss, probably helps. Assuming Wheaton gets in, IWU is 1-2 vs RRO...how many teams in the Pool C process played 3 games vs RRO? The 1 win and 3 games played probably help. (If Wash U gets ranked, IWU is 2-2 vs RRO...and 2-2 with that great SOS would be big.)
I thought about Wittenberg, but I don't see them ahead of a 2-loss IWU due to SOS. There is a huge difference - http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking
Let me stress, I think IWU is some kind of longshot to get a Pool C...but I think the chances are actually much better than most people think based on the criteria.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
I think the West Regional Rankings this week will be very interesting:
With losses I would think Oshkosh and Simpson both drop out. With Simpson dropping out, does Linfield jump (temporarily) over Bethel or does it stay as is (doesn't really matter as next Saturday will give either St. Thomas/Bethel winner the clear edge)? At the bottom, who replaces Oshkosh and Simpson--you've got 1-loss St. Norbert and Martin Luther with a weak SOS and you've got a whole mess with 2-loss Dubuque/Wartburg/Central or the SCIAC 2 loss teams in Redlands (best SOS of the bunch but blocked by their loss to Claremont who has a weak SOS). Should be interesting to see where they go with this....
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
you are correct....Wheaton could jump in in a big way this week except...Wash U.....hmm.....I don't envy the committee :)
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)
We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:29:53 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)
We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?
Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.
I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either :-\
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:41:08 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:29:53 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)
We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?
Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.
I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either :-\
but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)
...and poor Hardin-Simmons... They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.
They do everything that they have needed to do...
go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)
...except score a point against UMHB.
A question for the general readership...
In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?
Well that depends somewhat on who they face in those rounds ;D
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
...and poor Hardin-Simmons... They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.
They do everything that they have needed to do...
go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)
...except score a point against UMHB.
A question for the general readership...
In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?
3rd round, unless they play Hardin-Simmons in round 1 or 2.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
...and poor Hardin-Simmons... They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.
They do everything that they have needed to do...
go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)
...except score a point against UMHB.
A question for the general readership...
In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?
Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2018, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:41:08 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:29:53 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)
We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?
Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.
I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either :-\
but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)
No you don't. The committee already weighed in on that last week with IWU #2 and JCU #3. It's. It a criteria and if it were the committee didn't see it as significant a week ago.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2018, 12:53:49 PM
Well that depends somewhat on who they face in those rounds ;D
Linfield or Whitworth would be a good opponent.
| Year | Team | Round | Score |
| . | . | . | . |
| 2017 | Linfield | 2 | 24-10 |
| 2016 | Linfield | 2 | 27-10 |
| 2015 | HSU | 1 | 37-19 |
| 2014 | TLU | 1 | 27-20 |
| 2013 | SJF | 4 | 45-23 |
| 2012 | Wesley | 3 | 32-20 |
| 2011 | Redlands | 1 | 34-13 |
| 2010 | Wesley | 3 | 9-19 |
Going by Wally Wabash's work this week, if there is a big shake-up in the North Region...
I think that I am glad that NCC prevailed and the remainder of the CCIW schools, Wheaton and IWU, get moved down the order...
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 01, 2018, 09:49:29 PM
I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs. If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1890768#msg1890768). So let's dive in.
Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
(https://i.imgur.com/f7BBHAF.png)
St. John's, Berry, and Whitewater have all clinched (golden ticket status noted appropriately). Many, many more coming this weekend. Other changes/notes on Pool A:
- The unofficial word has Denison winning a potential NCAC tiebreak and that's been noted here.
- I'm still hedging toward Wartburg in the ARC, but it could go any of about four different ways.
Pool B
Pool B is a touch more interesting now with MIT not being undefeated. Based on the rankings, we're going to have Merchant Marine on the board from the East and Thomas More from the South.
Round 1:
E8 Merchant Marine: 6-1, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.603 (10th) SOS
S10 Thomas More: 6-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.555 (49th)
Last week TMC had an SOS advantage over MIT, but now that SOS advantage swings dramatically over to the Mariners. Classic case here where the NCAA's SOS metric isn't great because I'm having a hard time buying a NEWMAC schedule as being "stronger" than what the Saints have done so far this year. But the numbers are the numbers and I think the vote swings toward Merchant Marine and their top 10 schedule strength. Thomas More can absolutely play in though if they win at St. John's in Week 11.
The remaining at-large tables shake out this way:
East: Cortland, Salisbury, Ithaca
North: John Carroll, North Central, Baldwin Wallace, Wabash, Wittenberg
South: Centre, Hardin-Simmons, Muhlenberg, CWRU
West: Bethel, Linfield, St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Simpson, UW-La Crosse
Pretty different table than we had last week, yeah? The regional rankings can definitely shuffle the deck and have done so here.
Pool C:
Round 1:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
4W Bethel - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.564 (42nd)
(Bethel, JCU, Centre, Cortland)
I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals. That's the line I opened this section with two weeks ago! Life comes at you fast. So this board isn't quite as star-powered as it was two weeks ago, but that actually makes things a little easier. Centre has a dominant SOS, JCU has a pretty good SOS and a pretty impressive result against N1 (which is like a super-RRO, really), but Bethel stands out to me with that RRO win over Simpson. It's the only quality win on the board right now and I'm putting the Royals in first.
Round 2:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(JCU, Centre, Linfield, Cortland)
So much for writing Linfield off. They're here and they're here pretty early in the process. Now, what the summary above doesn't show is a second loss to NAIA Carroll(Mont.) and that loss is in fact useable data in the secondary criteria. I'm not ignoring it or letting Linfield off the hook for that game. I do think that Linfield's 100-point advantage over Cortland is noteworthy and I'm placing Linfield in front of Cortland. Which brings me to JCU and Centre. JCU took Mount Union to the wire which is an enormous feat. Centre had Berry into overtime, which is an impressive result, but it just isn't the same. Centre has a healthy SOS edge here, but I think JCU has the far better result and I'm putting the Streaks in. If Maryville somehow edges in to these rankings, I think we might do this differently.
Round 3:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Centre, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
North Central is the noob and North Central doesn't actually present very well if I'm being honest. The North RACs decision to not rank Wheaton or WashU costs North Central some valuable criteria pros. My analysis has already drawn clear differentiation between Centre and Linfield and I don't think I can place North Central in over Centre given the current set of rankings. Centre is in. I am going to place North Central ahead of Linfield largely because of Linfield's second loss.
Round 4:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
5S Hardin-Simmons - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.571 (37th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(HSU, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
Hardin-Simmons we've long assumed to be a lock to make this field, but their placement behind Centre puts them much closer to the bubble than we thought they'd be. I do think they present pretty well against this current board thought. They are just 0-1 vs. RROs, but their RRO loss is to S1, and like Mount Union, UMHB losses don't sting quite as bad. And while HSU wasn't anywhere close to winning that game, they did perform far better than anybody else has against UMHB. I'm moving Hardin-Simmons to the front of the line and right into the field. North Central not getting RRO credit here really hurts the Cardinals.
Round 5:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
6S Muhlenberg - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.583 (27th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Muhlenberg, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)
Here come the Mules! Guess what? Muhlenberg has the best SOS at the table and they are also the only team at the table right now with an RRO (vs. S10 TMC). That's a pretty good looking at-large profile, really. They have a respectable loss to S3- something that I also look for here when I look at results vs. ranked teams are point margins. Not so much that one team lost by 4 and another lost by 7 so the first one is better. But significant margins. Muhlenberg's loss isn't at all bad to a very good team. North Central has a wipeout on their profile to an unranked team (we know Wheaton is strong, but today, they are unranked and it is what it is). Linfield has a second loss that I'm not ignoring. Cortland has been here the whole time, but despite being the top at-large team in their region, Cortland doesn't present well at all as a team with a sub-.500 SOS and no games against ranked teams. So I'm putting the Mules in.
And that's the field as I see it today. Some things to keep in mind- this is a snapshot as of right now and not a projection as to what I think the field will look like in 10 days. North Central is either going to beat IWU and qualify through Pool A or not even be in this discussion. Bethel has to get through St. Thomas to be the first team off this board. And even then might not be the first team off if JCU beats Baldwin Wallace and notches an RRO win. And Simpson could well drop out which would cost Bethel a valuable RRO win. I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East. Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down. So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.
But you said that you didn't think Hardin-Simmons would be at the table until after the 5th pick? This has us in the conversation and off the board before the 5 selection even gets there.
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 04, 2018, 01:03:07 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
...and poor Hardin-Simmons... They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.
They do everything that they have needed to do...
go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)
...except score a point against UMHB.
A question for the general readership...
In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?
Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.
Well if you're going solely by wally's process as that last post seems to suggest... Hardin-Simmons is the 4th team in. So that doesn't really answer which 5 you'd have in ahead.
Quote from: USee on November 04, 2018, 01:04:59 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2018, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:41:08 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:29:53 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 10:08:48 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 04, 2018, 09:13:06 AM
I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.
----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation.
On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.
He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board. So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...
?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577
*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.
Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.
Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)
Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.
But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that. So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.
Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)
We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?
Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.
I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either :-\
but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)
No you don't. The committee already weighed in on that last week with IWU #2 and JCU #3. It's. It a criteria and if it were the committee didn't see it as significant a week ago.
to clarify-my comment was regarding one loss I I ranked ahead of undefeated Trine
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 04, 2018, 01:15:20 PM
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 04, 2018, 01:03:07 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2018, 12:47:31 PM
...and poor Hardin-Simmons... They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.
They do everything that they have needed to do...
go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)
...except score a point against UMHB.
A question for the general readership...
In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?
Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.
Well if you're going solely by wally's process as that last post seems to suggest... Hardin-Simmons is the 4th team in. So that doesn't really answer the question.
Then perhaps only Muhlenberg gets displaced... HSU goes in 5th. (HSU's SOS takes a hit with 2-7 McMurry.)
Unless Frostburg loses to Salisbury:
HSU
Baldwin-Wallace/John Carroll winner
Saint Thomas/Bethel winner
Centre
Muhlenberg
CWRU odd man out
Quote from: hazzben on October 31, 2018, 11:00:27 PM
Quote from: SaintsFAN on October 31, 2018, 04:36:06 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 31, 2018, 02:25:08 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
hazzben -- a lot of those answers are in our podcast with the committee chair from last week:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/
Thanks Pat, queued up for my flight to Boston tomorrow :)
Boston, eh? You in beantown much or is this a one-off?
First trip. Little late fall getaway for a long weekend. Any must sees or eats?
Just saw this: Apologies.
I think I was discussing the with Pat and Crew within the ERFP regarding access of Pool A by implementing a floor regarding win % and SOS, what was the average SOS of all Playoff teams over the past 3 to 5 years? Any guru have that information?
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 05, 2018, 10:58:23 AM
I think I was discussing the with Pat and Crew within the ERFP regarding access of Pool A by implementing a floor regarding win % and SOS, what was the average SOS of all Playoff teams over the past 3 to 5 years? Any guru have that information?
You don't really want to floor SOS. Any 10 team conference just can't much escape .500. And if you set the SOS under .500, it's pretty irrelevant. It doesn't tell you anything. Winning percentage I would have less of a problem with, but I still don't see the point. Let it be a tournament of champions. It's not the 32 best teams. It's never going to be the 32 best teams. Don't worry about it. Win your conference, go to the tournament. Fail to win your conference? Better luck next year. Unless we get under 2 Pool Cs, I just don't see the problem.
Quote from: jknezek on November 05, 2018, 11:01:13 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 05, 2018, 10:58:23 AM
I think I was discussing the with Pat and Crew within the ERFP regarding access of Pool A by implementing a floor regarding win % and SOS, what was the average SOS of all Playoff teams over the past 3 to 5 years? Any guru have that information?
You don't really want to floor SOS. Any 10 team conference just can't much escape .500. And if you set the SOS under .500, it's pretty irrelevant. It doesn't tell you anything. Winning percentage I would have less of a problem with, but I still don't see the point. Let it be a tournament of champions. It's not the 32 best teams. It's never going to be the 32 best teams. Don't worry about it. Win your conference, go to the tournament. Fail to win your conference? Better luck next year. Unless we went under 2 Pool Cs, I just don't see the problem.
I agree, however just looking for better solutions, just for conversation purposes only. I know we tend to say 10 league conferences tend to swing around .500, that's fine. The current Top 10 SOS is .525. I know many teams especially in the South and West have harder times scheduling OOC games, however would requiring each DIII team to play 2 OOC help as well? Again, just for conversation purposes?
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 05, 2018, 11:16:05 AM
Quote from: jknezek on November 05, 2018, 11:01:13 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 05, 2018, 10:58:23 AM
I think I was discussing the with Pat and Crew within the ERFP regarding access of Pool A by implementing a floor regarding win % and SOS, what was the average SOS of all Playoff teams over the past 3 to 5 years? Any guru have that information?
You don't really want to floor SOS. Any 10 team conference just can't much escape .500. And if you set the SOS under .500, it's pretty irrelevant. It doesn't tell you anything. Winning percentage I would have less of a problem with, but I still don't see the point. Let it be a tournament of champions. It's not the 32 best teams. It's never going to be the 32 best teams. Don't worry about it. Win your conference, go to the tournament. Fail to win your conference? Better luck next year. Unless we went under 2 Pool Cs, I just don't see the problem.
I agree, however just looking for better solutions, just for conversation purposes only. I know we tend to say 10 league conferences tend to swing around .500, that's fine. The current Top 10 SOS is .525. I know many teams especially in the South and West have harder times scheduling OOC games, however would requiring each DIII team to play 2 OOC help as well? Again, just for conversation purposes?
So we either don't have round robins, or we start breaking up larger conferences to get the extra game? That would use up more A's and give you fewer C's. I don't think that is the solution you are looking for.
A crazy scenario that I just thought of. If Berry loses to Trinity what implications would that have at pool C? Trinity has played both HSU and Centre close. Berry has to travel close to 900 miles or 15 hours to get to Trinity and already has an AQ. Could be the perfect storm. Obviously Berry would drop, but wouldn't that mean that Centre has to drop too? Anyone have thoughts on this?
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 05, 2018, 12:09:44 PM
A crazy scenario that I just thought of. If Berry loses to Trinity what implications would that have at pool C? Trinity has played both HSU and Centre close. Berry has to travel close to 900 miles or 15 hours to get to Trinity and already has an AQ. Could be the perfect storm. Obviously Berry would drop, but wouldn't that mean that Centre has to drop too? Anyone have thoughts on this?
I think it would have to. I don't see enough padding in Centre's profile to rank them ahead of Berry in spite of the h2h result. How much impact would it have? Maybe not much, but probably enough to put HSU ahead of the Berry/Centre cluster.
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 05, 2018, 12:09:44 PM
A crazy scenario that I just thought of. If Berry loses to Trinity what implications would that have at pool C? Trinity has played both HSU and Centre close. Berry has to travel close to 900 miles or 15 hours to get to Trinity and already has an AQ. Could be the perfect storm. Obviously Berry would drop, but wouldn't that mean that Centre has to drop too? Anyone have thoughts on this?
I seriously doubt this is a bus trip for Berry.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 05, 2018, 01:29:04 PM
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 05, 2018, 12:09:44 PM
A crazy scenario that I just thought of. If Berry loses to Trinity what implications would that have at pool C? Trinity has played both HSU and Centre close. Berry has to travel close to 900 miles or 15 hours to get to Trinity and already has an AQ. Could be the perfect storm. Obviously Berry would drop, but wouldn't that mean that Centre has to drop too? Anyone have thoughts on this?
I seriously doubt this is a bus trip for Berry.
Ya never know....a few years back, LaVerne bused to Linfield.....got destroyed and then had to get back on the bus that night and head home....ouch!
The CWU football team bused it from Ellensburg to Humboldt State. And the volleyball and softball teams have to bus it over to Billings. I think they stay overnight though.
At least CWU doesn't bus it to Alaska!
I was in the Spokane airport once and the Idaho women's volleyball team was there checking in to their flight on a Wednesday. Caught the bus in Moscow, ID at 2:30 AM. They had a road trip to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State (they were in the WAC at the time). They stopped over in Denver and flew into Shreveport, I believe, then bused it to Ruston. Played Thursday night. Caught a flight early Friday morning in Shreveport through Dallas to El Paso, then bused it to Las Cruces to play Saturday. Woke up Sunday morning early, back to El Paso, then through Denver to Spokane and got home late Sunday night.
The glorious life of a Non D1 Power conference athlete - early wakeup calls and bus rides.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 05, 2018, 01:29:04 PM
Quote from: HSUAlum255 on November 05, 2018, 12:09:44 PM
A crazy scenario that I just thought of. If Berry loses to Trinity what implications would that have at pool C? Trinity has played both HSU and Centre close. Berry has to travel close to 900 miles or 15 hours to get to Trinity and already has an AQ. Could be the perfect storm. Obviously Berry would drop, but wouldn't that mean that Centre has to drop too? Anyone have thoughts on this?
I seriously doubt this is a bus trip for Berry.
Not that far fetched, Louisiana College traveled all the way to Alpine to face Sul Ross State that was 800 miles and Belhaven will make the 900 mile trek to Alpine this weekend.
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 09:46:17 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Based on how the teams sit now, I think the order would be Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, Hardin Simmons, and then 1 of Mulhenburg, Wabash, or possibly Ithaca
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 02:47:39 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 09:46:17 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Based on how the teams sit now, I think the order would be Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, Hardin Simmons, and then 1 of Mulhenburg, Wabash, or possibly Ithaca
Ithaca seems like a longshot--with 2 losses and no wins against RRO (if they beat Cortland this week then Cortland probably isn't ranked in the final rankings)....
Ithaca might be the East team on the board being discussed, but barring a collapse, can't be an at-large selection....numbers just won't work.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 03:51:58 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 02:47:39 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 09:46:17 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Based on how the teams sit now, I think the order would be Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, Hardin Simmons, and then 1 of Mulhenburg, Wabash, or possibly Ithaca
Ithaca seems like a longshot--with 2 losses and no wins against RRO (if they beat Cortland this week then Cortland probably isn't ranked in the final rankings)....
I agree with that. Their only advantage is that they might be on the table the whole time, so they have 5 shots to be taken
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 08, 2018, 03:59:46 PM
Ithaca might be the East team on the board being discussed, but barring a collapse, can't be an at-large selection....numbers just won't work.
exactly--at that point they are probably comparing to Muhlenberg, Linfield, and Wabash. Of those 3---Muhlenberg still probably gets the nod....
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 02:47:39 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 09:46:17 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Based on how the teams sit now, I think the order would be Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, Hardin Simmons, and then 1 of Mulhenburg, Wabash, or possibly Ithaca
Isn't Wabash in line to get the Pool A bid?
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 08, 2018, 03:59:46 PM
Ithaca might be the East team on the board being discussed, but barring a collapse, can't be an at-large selection....numbers just won't work.
Can't is pretty strong. Illinois Wesleyan
can't get in. Ithaca...maybe?
Right now, I agree that Ithaca is on the wrong side of the bubble, but if they are the first and only team on the board from the East, they certainly have a chance to go in on that fourth or fifth vote.
Quote from: Oline89 on November 08, 2018, 04:03:46 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 02:47:39 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2018, 09:46:17 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 07, 2018, 02:03:16 PM
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2018/second-regional-ranking
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings
Any changes on thoughts about who gets in with the new rankings?
Based on how the teams sit now, I think the order would be Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, Hardin Simmons, and then 1 of Mulhenburg, Wabash, or possibly Ithaca
Isn't Wabash in line to get the Pool A bid?
Sadly no, but maybe we can speak it into existence. :)
Quote from: Oline89 on November 08, 2018, 04:03:46 PM
Isn't Wabash in line to get the Pool A bid?
They need Dennison to lose....against an 0-9 team
Wally, with two losses, what, shy of a collapse from Muhlenberg, CWRU, and possibly others, would put Ithaca in ahead of these teams with better records and some with better SOS and RRO results?
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 08, 2018, 05:59:05 PM
Wally, with two losses, what, shy of a collapse from Muhlenberg, CWRU, and possibly others, would put Ithaca in ahead of these teams with better records and some with better SOS and RRO results?
If Ithaca is part of the conversation from the start, and they stay part of the conversation for an hour or two hours or however long it takes the committee to get their five C teams, then that's a lot of time for the committee to come around on the Bombers. Depending on how the conversation is framed around their results vs. E1 and E3, depending on where Ithaca's SOS sits relative to other teams on the board...
Again, I'm in agreement that I think Ithaca's profile falls just short. But if they are in fact the top East at-large Saturday night and then we do see them in the field on Sunday, I wouldn't be blown away. I think I've seen stranger things at the tail end of the selection process than Ithaca getting picked this weekend.
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Quote from: edward de vere on November 08, 2018, 10:32:24 PM
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Possibly. But for that, they would have to remain above Linfield, and since St. Thomas is already below them, it's hard to envision a loss bumping them above Lin.
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 10:41:51 PM
Quote from: edward de vere on November 08, 2018, 10:32:24 PM
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Possibly. But for that, they would have to remain above Linfield, and since St. Thomas is already below them, it's hard to envision a loss bumping them above Lin.
I agree. It seems like the presence of Linfield between them is a pretty strong signal that the St. Thomas/Bethel game is tantamount to a play-in game.
Thx for all you support! Linfield may squeak in depending on the outcomes a few matches.... Never count out the WildCats!!
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 10:41:51 PM
Quote from: edward de vere on November 08, 2018, 10:32:24 PM
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Possibly. But for that, they would have to remain above Linfield, and since St. Thomas is already below them, it's hard to envision a loss bumping them above Lin.
If this was Div 1 FBS, those quality losses count for a lot.
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 09, 2018, 07:35:53 AM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 10:41:51 PM
Quote from: edward de vere on November 08, 2018, 10:32:24 PM
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Possibly. But for that, they would have to remain above Linfield, and since St. Thomas is already below them, it's hard to envision a loss bumping them above Lin.
If this was Div 1 FBS, those quality losses count for a lot.
But thankfully, this is not Div 1 FBS! :) :) :)
Quote from: MANDGSU on November 09, 2018, 07:35:53 AM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on November 08, 2018, 10:41:51 PM
Quote from: edward de vere on November 08, 2018, 10:32:24 PM
If the winner of the St. Thomas/Bethel game is the first or second Pool C choice, why wouldn't the LOSER of that same game be the fourth or fifth choice if - IF - the game is very close?
Possibly. But for that, they would have to remain above Linfield, and since St. Thomas is already below them, it's hard to envision a loss bumping them above Lin.
If this was Div 1 FBS, those quality losses count for a lot.
If this were Division I FBS, we wouldn't be having this conversation because four-team playoff.
Does HSU jump to #3 in the South Reg Rankings behind UMHB & JHU?
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2018, 07:08:08 PM
Does HSU jump to #3 in the South Reg Rankings behind UMHB & JHU?
maybe, maybe not.... ;D
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2018, 07:08:08 PM
Does HSU jump to #3 in the South Reg Rankings behind UMHB & JHU?
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2018, 07:08:52 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2018, 07:08:08 PM
Does HSU jump to #3 in the South Reg Rankings behind UMHB & JHU?
maybe, maybe not.... ;D
...esp if Murvul moves into #10 & Centre and Berry get another RVRRO...
Can anyone give a quick recap on unexpected Pool C results today? Anyone play their way out, or lose their way into consideration? I know Ithaca sounds like they've improved their chances.
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2018, 07:40:51 PM
Can anyone give a quick recap on unexpected Pool C results today? Anyone play their way out, or lose their way into consideration? I know Ithaca sounds like they've improved their chances.
Not sure if you heard, but St Thomas unexpectedly lost and played their way out ;)
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2018, 07:40:51 PM
Can anyone give a quick recap on unexpected Pool C results today? Anyone play their way out, or lose their way into consideration? I know Ithaca sounds like they've improved their chances.
Salisbury lost their way out.... Other than that, I think all of the major contenders won. There were losses, however, that could impact where those contenders end up in the rankings. Some new teams will be moving into the rankings and that could have some impact (for instance, the bottom 2 plus St. Thomas in the west region lost--I'd think at least two of these are replaced by new teams)....
Case Western just lost to Carnegie-Mellon, knocking the Spartans from any shot at a Pool C. Opportunity was slim with win and none with this loss.
My pool C picks:
Bethal
John Carroll
Centre
Hardin Simmons
Mulenberg
Pool B
MIT
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
So D3football.com has Wabash on the board after John Carroll (as the last regional ranking dictates), but not competitive in the process due to a weak SOS.
"Could Wabash get in? Sure. They have a win against a regionally ranked team. But the SOS of under .500 is a no-go with our committee."I agree with this, and it's why I don't understand why the North would put Wabash and Wittenberg ahead of IWU. It seems like IWU would be much more competitive in the Pool C process. Replacing Wabash with IWU in the 3rd round of the D3football.com selection process...
Ithaca 8-2, .556 SOS, loss to East No. 1 Brockport, lost to E3 RPI, win vs. E7 Union
Hardin-Simmons 9-1, .519, loss to S1 UMHB, win vs. S10 Trinity
Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .588, loss to W#8 UW-La Crosse, win vs N#10 Wheaton, loss vs N#2 North CentralLinfield 7-2, .565, loss to W3 Whitworth (and NAIA Carroll, which is 5-6, or 4-6 plus a forfeit win)
I think in that scenario D3football would have picked IWU as one of the five Pool Cs. (I'd say the same about Wheaton...but I believe IWU will be regionally ranked ahead of Wheaton due to head-to-head win.)
Resumes w/ teams listed in alphabetical order (SOS numbers are one game old):
* Illinois Wesleyan: 8-2, .588 SOS, 1-2 vs RRO (beat Wheaton, lost to La Crosse, North Central)
* Wabash: 9-1, .484 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO (beat Wittenberg)
* Wheaton: 8-2, .606 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO (lost to IWU, beat North Central)
* Wittenberg: 9-1, .500 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO (lost to Wabash)
I have a diploma from IWU, and my handle is "Titan Q", but it seems to me like IWU should be the highest ranked team in that group.
Anyone know if/when we get the final regional rankings?
WE don't.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 08:15:04 AM
Anyone know if/when we get the final regional rankings?
We got them last year, of course they were released after the bracket was.
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2017/final-regional-ranking
Here are the criteria with updated SOS through yesterday:
* Illinois Wesleyan: 8-2, .555 SOS, 1-2 vs RRO (beat Wheaton, lost to La Crosse, North Central)
* Wabash: 9-1, .484 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO (beat Wittenberg)
* Wheaton: 8-2, .558 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO (lost to IWU, beat North Central)
* Wittenberg: 9-1, .504 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO (lost to Wabash)
*JCU: 9-1, .538 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO (Beat BW, lost to UMU)
If somehow WashU sneaks into the bottom of the final rankings, which is a strong possibility when you consider all the choices for the 10th spot:
*WashU: 8-2, .555 SOS, 1-2 vs RRO (Beat Wheaton, lost to IWU, North Central)
*Baldwin Wallace: 8-2, .516 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO (Lost to UMU, JCU)
*Franklin: 8-2, .440 SOS, 0-0 vs RRO
*Denison,: 8-2 .497 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO (Beat Wabash, lost to Wittenberg)
Then the North looks like this:
* Illinois Wesleyan: 8-2, .555 SOS, 2-2 vs RRO (beat Wheaton, WashU, lost to La Crosse, North Central)
* Wabash: 9-1, .484 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO (beat Wittenberg)
* Wheaton: 8-2, .558 SOS, 1-2 vs RRO (lost to IWU, WashU, beat North Central)
* Wittenberg: 9-1, .504 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO (lost to Wabash)
*JCU: 9-1, .538 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO (lost to UMU)
Great update USee.
Makes IWU's case to jump even stronger. We shall see!
We've made our opinions known about the lack of original thought put into the North Region rankings. But if IWU were going to be ahead of Wabash, why would they be ahead today and not on Wednesday?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:36:57 PM
We've made our opinions known about the lack of original thought put into the North Region rankings. But if IWU were going to be ahead of Wabash, why would they be ahead today and not on Wednesday?
1. The regional or national committee taking a better look at how each team stacks up nationally in the Pool C process.
2. Wash U getting ranked #10 in the North, giving IWU another win/game vs RRO.
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 01:26:36 PM
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.
Pat, do you know if we get the final rankings?
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 01:43:13 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 01:26:36 PM
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.
Pat, do you know if we get the final rankings?
We do -- sorry, that was answered previously on this board or the CCIW, so I didn't reiterate the answer.
Quote from: crufootball on November 11, 2018, 10:00:01 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 08:15:04 AM
Anyone know if/when we get the final regional rankings?
We got them last year, of course they were released after the bracket was.
http://d3football.com/playoffs/2017/final-regional-ranking
There's a lot going on on Selection Sunday, so publishing the final rankings is probably way down on the list. I'm happy to have them at all, even if we get them post facto.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
The committee process has been anything but consistent. It's also not unprecedented for a team to jump up in a final poll above a team it was previously ranked below in the regional rankings for no apparent reason. While I don't expect it to happen for IWU, it also would t surprise me if it did happen.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
Thanks Wally.
With this data...
1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1
...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.
It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 03:46:28 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
Thanks Wally.
With this data...
1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1
...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.
It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
My assumption is they aren't doing their own ranking so much as predicting what the actual RAC will do. So this isnt them saying IWU belongs here. They really have to attempt this or their entire projected bracket will be inaccurate.
@TitanQ
I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.
I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.
I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.
That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 04:13:55 PM
That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
No question
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 04:13:55 PM
@TitanQ
I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.
I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.
I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.
That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win. The Cat's wins were all legit. And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 11, 2018, 04:20:05 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 04:13:55 PM
@TitanQ
I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.
I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.
I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.
That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win. The Cat's wins were all legit. And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies.
Good catch. Brain fart there assigning the forfeit to Linfield.
I don't disagree that there's definitely a reason to keep Linfield above UST given SOS. But I think the argument at least comes up. UST has faced two RRO and lost twice. Both teams that make the field. Linfield has faced one RRO, and lost, to a team in the field. But there's this other data point, they lost to that .500 NAIA team.
Pat says it all the time, it's not who you lost to, it's who you beat. But I think in this instance, they probably at least take a peak at who those second losses are to, now that all the games are played.
End of the day, I think UST is in the same boat as IWU and the respective RAC's continue what they've done to this point. Though I think IWU is being done the greater diservice of the two.
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 03:58:22 PM
My assumption is they aren't doing their own ranking so much as predicting what the actual RAC will do. So this isnt them saying IWU belongs here. They really have to attempt this or their entire projected bracket will be inaccurate.
::ding::
Even with IWU jumping in instead of Wabash, I can't see them getting ahead of Centre or Muhlenberg.
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 04:31:45 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 11, 2018, 04:20:05 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 11, 2018, 04:13:55 PM
@TitanQ
I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.
I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.
I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.
That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win. The Cat's wins were all legit. And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies.
Good catch. Brain fart there assigning the forfeit to Linfield.
I don't disagree that there's definitely a reason to keep Linfield above UST given SOS. But I think the argument at least comes up. UST has faced two RRO and lost twice. Both teams that make the field. Linfield has faced one RRO, and lost, to a team in the field. But there's this other data point, they lost to that .500 NAIA team.
Pat says it all the time, it's not who you lost to, it's who you beat. But I think in this instance, they probably at least take a peak at who those second losses are to, now that all the games are played.
End of the day, I think UST is in the same boat as IWU and the respective RAC's continue what they've done to this point. Though I think IWU is being done the greater diservice of the two.
Fair point...but I can't imagine they move St. Thomas over Linfield when they weren't ahead of them with only one loss...either way---if any of these teams get a spot I'll be shocked.
Agreed. But I think the field would be better with any of the 3 included.
Hardin-Simmons @ UMHB
Maryville @ Berry
Martin Luther @ St John's
CMS @ Whitworth
Eureka @ Whitewater
St Norbert @ Trine
Hanover @ North Central
Wartburg @ Bethel
Denison @ Mount Union
Wash & Jeff @ Centre
Randolph-Macon @ John Carroll
Muhlenberg @ Delaware Valley
Framingham @ Brockport
Husson @ RPI
W New England @ Frostburg
MIT @ Johns Hopkins
so I believe the Pool C list is Hardin-Simmons, Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, and Muhlenberg.
3 of them will host in the 1st round
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 03:46:28 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
Thanks Wally.
With this data...
1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1
...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.
It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
This is how we ranked the teams based on the tendencies of this regional committee. Even though this set is a best case scenario for my alma mater, I think any good application of the primary criteria would have ranked IWU and Wheaton (at least) ahead of the NCAC teams. This is the second year in a row now that the North RAC looks like they've kind of mailed in the entire exercise and it's kind of a bummer. Put plainly, I think they're getting this wrong.
Yea, notice to all North Region Coaches, schedule easy teams in your non conference game. That message is loud an clear. Between this and the Texas rematch we have a significant regression in the quality of the playoffs.
I'm interested to see the final North ranking to see if they indeed had Wabash highest.
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 03:46:28 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
Thanks Wally.
With this data...
1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1
...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.
It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
How is NCC not ranked 2 - 1 in RRO given wins over IWU and Wash U?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 06:43:14 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 11, 2018, 03:46:28 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 11, 2018, 12:49:26 AM
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection
I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.
Thanks Wally.
With this data...
1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1
...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.
It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
This is how we ranked the teams based on the tendencies of this regional committee. Even though this set is a best case scenario for my alma mater, I think any good application of the primary criteria would have ranked IWU and Wheaton (at least) ahead of the NCAC teams. This is the second year in a row now that the North RAC looks like they've kind of mailed in the entire exercise and it's kind of a bummer. Put plainly, I think they're getting this wrong.
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2018, 08:17:18 PM
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this. The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North. Wheaton maybe could have been in there.
If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone. The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU. In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 09:05:29 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2018, 08:17:18 PM
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this. The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North. Wheaton maybe could have been in there.
If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone. The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU. In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.
I am NOT normally a 'conspiracy theorist', but I swear the North RAC has a thing about screwing the North! Either that, or they are totally lazy SOBs who just mail it in. Folks, winning % is not the ONLY primary criterion! :o If you apply ALL the primary criteria (with whatever weightings, other than 100%, 0%, 0%, ...), there is no way that IWU or Wheaton is below Wabash or Witt in the regional rankings.
I guess the final rankings don't come out until tomorrow, but on another thread Pat strongly implied that the North RAC did NOT change that ridiculous scenario.
Thanx for another fine year of hosting this thread, Wally!
Quote from: art76 on November 12, 2018, 09:50:18 AM
Thanx for another fine year of hosting this thread, Wally!
Seconded. I can't imagine the amount of thought and effort that goes into this. We've got to be the best informed fans in college football. Seriously, I'll take what we get from the front page and these boards over anything ESPN serves up for the FBS/FCS any day.
Quote from: hazzben on November 12, 2018, 10:20:53 AM
Quote from: art76 on November 12, 2018, 09:50:18 AM
Thanx for another fine year of hosting this thread, Wally!
Seconded. I can't imagine the amount of thought and effort that goes into this. We've got to be the best informed fans in college football. Seriously, I'll take what we get from the front page and these boards over anything ESPN serves up for the FBS/FCS Power 5 any day.
Appreciate that, gentlemen. I did bit more collaboration with the site this year so time constraints and not wanting to duplicate content here in the forum meant that some of the deep dive stuff that I usually do in here ended up elsewhere. I hope everybody was able to find our conversations and analyses on rankings and at-large teams in the last 10 days or so on the various platforms (site columns, podcasts, etc.).
We don't have final regional rankings yet, but we know from Catanzaro's conversation in ATN today that Linfield, Ithaca, and Wabash were left on the board. He didn't directly confirm that Muhlenberg was the last team in (he told me on the ITH interview that he couldn't say what order the teams were picked), but I see Bethel, John Carroll, and Centre all have home games. Hardin-Simmons is a casualty of geography and were probably always going to be on the road (either to Whitworth or UMHB). And then Muhlenberg is on the road which signals to me that Centre went off before Muhlenberg. Catanzaro also talked about Trinity beating Berry having an effect on where teams were ranked, so I think we really got that part right in our projection on Saturday night.
Other at-large reactions:
- Not taking a shot here, but I'm kind of glad that Linfield did not make this tournament. Catanzaro said that the secondary criteria really didn't come up, but had Linfield been in, there's a dangerous precedent to set there regarding non-division games. I'm happy that we don't have to deal with that.
- The end of the selection process probably wasn't as tricky as it has been recently. We'll always be left to wonder "what if" the committee was talking about IWU or Wheaton on that board with top strengths of schedule and a multitude of ranked results. We're kind of beating this idea into the ground here, but the primary criteria are not "sort by" commands in sequence.
- Not super pumped that they put three Cs in the same region. They probably could have shuffled, if not the whole pods, just the John Carroll and Frostburg pairings to spread the Cs out a little more.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 12, 2018, 11:05:49 AM
Appreciate that, gentlemen. I did bit more collaboration with the site this year so time constraints and not wanting to duplicate content here in the forum meant that some of the deep dive stuff that I usually do in here ended up elsewhere. I hope everybody was able to find our conversations and analyses on rankings and at-large teams in the last 10 days or so on the various platforms (site columns, podcasts, etc.).
We don't have final regional rankings yet, but we know from Catanzaro's conversation in ATN today that Linfield, Ithaca, and Wabash were left on the board. He didn't directly confirm that Muhlenberg was the last team in (he told me on the ITH interview that he couldn't say what order the teams were picked), but I see Bethel, John Carroll, and Centre all have home games. Hardin-Simmons is a casualty of geography and were probably always going to be on the road (either to Whitworth or UMHB). And then Muhlenberg is on the road which signals to me that Centre went off before Muhlenberg. Catanzaro also talked about Trinity beating Berry having an effect on where teams were ranked, so I think we really got that part right in our projection on Saturday night.
Other at-large reactions:
- Not taking a shot here, but I'm kind of glad that Linfield did not make this tournament. Catanzaro said that the secondary criteria really didn't come up, but had Linfield been in, there's a dangerous precedent to set there regarding non-division games. I'm happy that we don't have to deal with that.
- The end of the selection process probably wasn't as tricky as it has been recently. We'll always be left to wonder "what if" the committee was talking about IWU or Wheaton on that board with top strengths of schedule and a multitude of ranked results. We're kind of beating this idea into the ground here, but the primary criteria are not "sort by" commands in sequence.
- Not super pumped that they put three Cs in the same region. They probably could have shuffled, if not the whole pods, just the John Carroll and Frostburg pairings to spread the Cs out a little more.
As a Linfield guy---I didn't expect the CATS to get in and I get what you are saying....that being said--scheduling is not always easy for Linfield so sometimes you take what you can get.. speaking of which--I'm told that next year Linfield is opening up (I think) at Rowan!
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 12, 2018, 11:56:11 AM
As a Linfield guy---I didn't expect the CATS to get in and I get what you are saying....that being said--scheduling is not always easy for Linfield so sometimes you take what you can get.. speaking of which--I'm told that next year Linfield is opening up (I think) at Rowan!
This is fantastic if true.
Thanks for the Final Regional Rankings.
Quote from: CRUnk01 on November 12, 2018, 01:10:58 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 12, 2018, 11:56:11 AM
As a Linfield guy---I didn't expect the CATS to get in and I get what you are saying....that being said--scheduling is not always easy for Linfield so sometimes you take what you can get.. speaking of which--I'm told that next year Linfield is opening up (I think) at Rowan!
This is fantastic if true.
agree, i will make that trip and I dont like rowan. I will be a closet linfield fan at that game.
Quote from: wesleydad on November 12, 2018, 08:13:26 PM
Quote from: CRUnk01 on November 12, 2018, 01:10:58 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 12, 2018, 11:56:11 AM
As a Linfield guy---I didn't expect the CATS to get in and I get what you are saying....that being said--scheduling is not always easy for Linfield so sometimes you take what you can get.. speaking of which--I'm told that next year Linfield is opening up (I think) at Rowan!
This is fantastic if true.
agree, i will make that trip and I dont like rowan. I will be a closet linfield fan at that game.
Considering the distance from Linfield, you might double their fanbase at the game! ;D
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 12, 2018, 08:49:47 PM
Quote from: wesleydad on November 12, 2018, 08:13:26 PM
Quote from: CRUnk01 on November 12, 2018, 01:10:58 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 12, 2018, 11:56:11 AM
As a Linfield guy---I didn't expect the CATS to get in and I get what you are saying....that being said--scheduling is not always easy for Linfield so sometimes you take what you can get.. speaking of which--I'm told that next year Linfield is opening up (I think) at Rowan!
This is fantastic if true.
agree, i will make that trip and I dont like rowan. I will be a closet linfield fan at that game.
Considering the distance from Linfield, you might double their fanbase at the game! ;D
i dunno...some of might use it as a reason to take a trip to the east
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 09:05:29 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2018, 08:17:18 PM
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this. The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North. Wheaton maybe could have been in there.
If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone. The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU. In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.
Looks like that scenario played out as Baldwin Wallace hung in at 10 keeping Denison out.
Also WashU jumped over Wheaton. Not saying whether it was right or wrong given the H2H, but what happened this week to jump them ahead? A 44-6 win over 3-7 Carroll apparently added more than a 79-0 win over 1-9 Elmhurst? Monmouth dropped 2 spots in the west rankings but is still ranked giving Wheaton 2-2 RRO vs WashU's 1-2.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2018, 10:37:29 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 09:05:29 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2018, 08:17:18 PM
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this. The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North. Wheaton maybe could have been in there.
If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone. The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU. In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.
Looks like that scenario played out as Baldwin Wallace hung in at 10 keeping Denison out.
Also WashU jumped over Wheaton. Not saying whether it was right or wrong given the H2H, but what happened this week to jump them ahead? A 44-6 win over 3-7 Carroll apparently added more than a 79-0 win over 1-9 Elmhurst? Monmouth dropped 2 spots in the west rankings but is still ranked giving Wheaton 2-2 RRO vs WashU's 1-2.
So, there was a similar scenario in the East rankings last week where MIT (unranked in the first RRs) came out of nowhere to be ranked ahead of USMMA in the second RRs. MIT has a h2h win over USMMA- that was there prior to the first RRs so why wasn't MIT ranked to begin with if they were going to be ahead of USMMA? No idea. My best explanation for this is that in the first round, MIT wasn't ranked in the top 10 and so they didn't really have to consider that h2h. Out of sight, out of mind kind of thing. Then some teams lost and that got MIT ranked in the top 10. Now, once they're on the same top 10 as USMMA, you kind of have to honor that h2h and put them in front. Yes, that's really silly.
So same deal with WashU. Once Franklin lost and made room for WashU, WashU had to go in front of Wheaton because h2h which they only really had to pay strict attention to once both teams were actually ranked.
I do not endorse this methodology of ignoring h2h results until two teams that played each other are both in the top 10, but I think that's what is going on.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2018, 01:47:01 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2018, 10:37:29 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2018, 09:05:29 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2018, 08:17:18 PM
Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?
One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this. The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North. Wheaton maybe could have been in there.
If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone. The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU. In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.
Looks like that scenario played out as Baldwin Wallace hung in at 10 keeping Denison out.
Also WashU jumped over Wheaton. Not saying whether it was right or wrong given the H2H, but what happened this week to jump them ahead? A 44-6 win over 3-7 Carroll apparently added more than a 79-0 win over 1-9 Elmhurst? Monmouth dropped 2 spots in the west rankings but is still ranked giving Wheaton 2-2 RRO vs WashU's 1-2.
So, there was a similar scenario in the East rankings last week where MIT (unranked in the first RRs) came out of nowhere to be ranked ahead of USMMA in the second RRs. MIT has a h2h win over USMMA- that was there prior to the first RRs so why wasn't MIT ranked to begin with if they were going to be ahead of USMMA? No idea. My best explanation for this is that in the first round, MIT wasn't ranked in the top 10 and so they didn't really have to consider that h2h. Out of sight, out of mind kind of thing. Then some teams lost and that got MIT ranked in the top 10. Now, once they're on the same top 10 as USMMA, you kind of have to honor that h2h and put them in front. Yes, that's really silly.
So same deal with WashU. Once Franklin lost and made room for WashU, WashU had to go in front of Wheaton because h2h which they only really had to pay strict attention to once both teams were actually ranked.
I do not endorse this methodology of ignoring h2h results until two teams that played each other are both in the top 10, but I think that's what is going on.
Would seem to me that the winner of the h2h should have been on the list to start with instead of the team that lost if the winning team was close to being on the list in the first place.
Three pool c teams still alive after round one.
Go Bethel!
Quote from: art76 on November 17, 2018, 03:59:59 PM
Three pool c teams still alive after round one.
Go Bethel!
And a 4th Pool C team that was either a #3 or a #4 seed was paired with the #1.
One would expect that to be a 4th win for Pool C with a National Bracket
12 monkey stomps of the 16 first round games and 3 road wins.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 17, 2018, 07:07:50 PM
12 monkey stomps of the 16 first round games and 3 road wins.
Please remind me what the definition of a monkey stomp.
21 point defeat?
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on November 17, 2018, 09:05:07 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 17, 2018, 07:07:50 PM
12 monkey stomps of the 16 first round games and 3 road wins.
Please remind me what the definition of a monkey stomp.
21 point defeat?
Yes
And then there were two - the Mules and the Royals, off to each challenge a separate perennial purple power.
Good luck to the Mules.
Go Bethel!
Quote from: art76 on November 17, 2018, 03:59:59 PM
Three pool c teams still alive after round one.
Go Bethel!
Quote from: art76 on November 24, 2018, 07:18:06 PM
And then there were two - the Mules and the Royals, off to each challenge a separate perennial purple power.
Good luck to the Mules.
Go Bethel!
Week #1 (3-2)
Bethel 41 Wartburg 14
Centre 54 W&J 13
UMHB 27
Hardin-Simmons 6 Randolph Macon 23,
John Carroll 20Muhlenberg 20 Del Valley 13
Week #2 (2-1/ 5-3 overall)
Bethel 27, North Central IL 24
Mount Union 51,
Centre 35Muhlenberg 35, Randolph Macon 6
It occurred to me that we could, but unlikely, have two conference semi-finals if Johns Hopkins and Muhlenberg from the Centennial Conference win, and St. John's and Bethel from the MIAC both win their quarter final games. That would be wild.
And now there are none. (sniff)
The final story line has to be that Mount Union will face both Centennial Conference teams in the playoffs.
Quote from: art76 on December 03, 2018, 08:07:28 AM
And now there are none. (sniff)
The final story line has to be that Mount Union will face both Centennial Conference teams in the playoffs.
Geographic proximity...
Final for the 2018 Season 5-5
Week #1 (3-2)
Bethel 41 Wartburg 14
Centre 54 W&J 13
UMHB 27 Hardin-Simmons 6
Randolph Macon 23, John Carroll 20
Muhlenberg 20 Del Valley 13
Week #2 (2-1/ 5-3 overall)
Bethel 27, North Central IL 24
Mount Union 51, Centre 35
Muhlenberg 35, Randolph Macon 6
Week #3 (0-2/ 5-5 overall)
Mount Union 38, Muhlenberg 10
UW-Whitewater 26, Bethel 12