Does anybody have any insight on the upcoming UAA season? Seems like the league will be wide open next year as teams that didnt finish as well are not graduating many people and a team like Chicago is going through a lot of change and the loss of three critical players.
Bold prediction: every UAA team will have to play 7 games against a quality and determined rival that won't give an inch of space on the field because of the name on the shirt or what last year's result was, and so nobody runs away with it and it'll go down to the final games where maybe the schedule helps/hurts things (i.e. who has to play on hot/humid day in Atlanta or on a frigid evening in Boston).
OK maybe not so bold, that's been the pattern for the past 4 seasons that i've been paying attention, where the last place team still takes points off of those above, and no one at the top has won out. Quality programs and schools mean that every year there will be talented newcomers and experienced upperclassmen who have been waiting for the All-American ahead of them to graduate so they can show their full potential. And long may it continue!
Hard then to bet on final places, but in the interest of debate here's a guess (in alpha order) at what the final 1/3 positions could be:
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
But to be honest, i think the biggest surprise would be if even that fairly-broad prediction holds.
Quote from: MaturinNYC on June 03, 2019, 03:04:33 PM
Bold prediction: every UAA team will have to play 7 games against a quality and determined rival that won't give an inch of space on the field because of the name on the shirt or what last year's result was, and so nobody runs away with it and it'll go down to the final games where maybe the schedule helps/hurts things (i.e. who has to play on hot/humid day in Atlanta or on a frigid evening in Boston).
OK maybe not so bold, that's been the pattern for the past 4 seasons that i've been paying attention, where the last place team still takes points off of those above, and no one at the top has won out. Quality programs and schools mean that every year there will be talented newcomers and experienced upperclassmen who have been waiting for the All-American ahead of them to graduate so they can show their full potential. And long may it continue!
Hard then to bet on final places, but in the interest of debate here's a guess (in alpha order) at what the final 1/3 positions could be:
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
But to be honest, i think the biggest surprise would be if even that fairly-broad prediction holds.
Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity. Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year. So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good. I'd put them in the upper third.
As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team. (See reply #250 in this thread.)
Quote from: Buck O. on June 04, 2019, 09:21:38 AM
Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity. Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year. So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good. I'd put them in the upper third.
As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team. (See reply #250 in this thread.)
Great insight Buck O., but to play the game ya gotta put down your 1/3s amigo....
Quote from: MaturinNYC on June 04, 2019, 03:41:29 PM
Quote from: Buck O. on June 04, 2019, 09:21:38 AM
Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity. Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year. So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good. I'd put them in the upper third.
As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team. (See reply #250 in this thread.)
Great insight Buck O., but to play the game ya gotta put down your 1/3s amigo....
OK, here goes, with each group in alphabetical order:
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.
At this point though should we start a UAA 2019 thread for predictions?
Quote from: MaturinNYC on June 06, 2019, 09:33:42 AMAt this point though should we start a UAA 2019 thread for predictions?
Taken care of. (FYI: The note that your message has been modified is because I changed the date in the Subject line)
Recently graduated Deis player here...Excited to see how the squad turns out this year. I have a feeling that goals will be hard to come by, but the defense will stand strong, as has been the case in the past successful years. The only outlier being the 2016 team, that had to score a lot during the year. My predictions
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
I think next year can shape up to be a year where no one has more than 4 league wins, as it has done in the past. Again, as stated above, it will come down to scheduling and overall exhaustion by the end of the grueling period.
Quote from: MaturinNYC on June 06, 2019, 09:33:42 AM
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.
I have to agree on NYU.
The freshmen class was impressive and will surely get better over time.
Quote from: WUPHF on June 07, 2019, 11:52:30 AM
Quote from: MaturinNYC on June 06, 2019, 09:33:42 AM
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.
I have to agree on NYU.
The freshmen class was impressive and will surely get better over time.
My prediction regarding NYU is based on regression to the mean (or, as Bill James called it, the Plexiglas Principle). They're the team that improved the most last season, relative to their past history, which suggests they're the team most likely to fall back some this season.
OK, so CWRU is ranked #7 in the United Soccer Coaches pre-season poll.
I sure hope that they live up to the hype!!!
UAA soccer is always STOUT!!!
You do know that's based on last year's final poll
As a recently graduated player and longtime reader of these boards, I thought I would finally join in and share my thoughts on things in the UAA which I will be following closely this year. As previously pointed out, I think the league will be hotly contested as always with each team having a reasonable shot at the title if they can maintain consistency over the course of conference play. Here are the big storylines for each team as I see them:
Brandeis: By their recent standards, Brandeis had a very poor year last year finishing sub .500 for the first time since 2009. Based off of the comments from their fan base over the past year it sounds like this was kind of expected, but Margolis will no doubt be looking to put this season far behind them. With most of their starters returning I expect that they will return to their winning ways this year, but there are still some question marks in the lineup. Margolis rotated keepers last year, seemingly displeased with both of them at various points during the season so it remains to be seen if either one of them can convince him they deserve the starting job or maybe he brought in a freshman this year who he likes better than both. Additionally, I believe blooter mentioned in a different thread that Nardizzi was not going to be returning this year. If that is the case, then Brandeis will have lost 3 of their top 4 point earners from last year and so there will be concern about who is going to be scoring the goals this year.
Case: Case had a breakthrough season last year, reaching the Elite 8 for the first time in program history before losing to finalist Calvin. They also did it with a relatively young roster: only two regular starters were seniors. Despite losing UAA 1st Teamer Alex Besl up top, they return their two top point scorers from last year in Zachary Senft and Connor Weber. This bodes extremely well for them this season and I would peg them as the favorites for the title this year.
Carnegie: Carnegie had a strong season last year, earning a Pool C bid to the tournament and making it to the second round before losing a heartbreaker to Kenyon in OT after giving up the equalizer with 33 seconds remaining in regulation. They lose a lot of the core of that team, however, with 6 key players graduating. The top two points earners return, along with a raft of rising seniors who all got major minutes last year, but with very few underclassmen seeing time last year, depth and experience may be a concern.
Chicago: After another Final 4 run last year there are two big question marks heading into this season. How will the coaching change affect the team? And how will they replace their senior class which included 1st Team AA's Lopez and Koh? They are only losing four starters (Cappotosto, Lopez, Koh and Adeosun who graduated early it seems), but when three of those happen to be the past 3 POY for the UAA you have to think that their departure will have an outsized impact on the fortunes of the program. I think that the loss combined with the coaching change could mean that it takes a little while for UC to really gel as a team, leading to an inconsistency in results this year.
Emory: To say Emory fell apart down the stretch last year would be an understatement as they were 8-0-0 entering conference play and finished at 9-7-2. It's hard to say what exactly happened to them as they beat some quality sides in non-conference play, but for some reason struggled mightily in the UAA. They also lose some key players to graduation in Khattab, Datene, and Santee, so I don't see them doing much to improve their final record from the year prior, although I doubt they will once again go winless in conference play.
NYU: NYU fielded the youngest lineup by far last year in terms of minutes played by underclassmen and showed very well both in conference play and overall, falling to Montclair St on PK's in the second round of the tournament. Their top points earner, Oliver Kleban, was named UAA ROY last year and he will be one to keep an eye on going forward. Considering the youth heavy roster and the experience they gained playing in the NCAA's last year, I fully expect them to contend for the UAA title this year and make another run in the tournament.
Rochester: UR was another team to have a breakthrough year last year, reaching the Final 4 for the first time in school history before bowing out to eventual champions Tufts. They did this on the backs of an extremely strong and deep senior class, having the oldest lineup in terms of minutes played in the conference. (Un?)Luckily for UR, most of that experience was located in the back half of the field as they graduate their entire back 5 that took the field for the beginning of the season. The big question for the back 5 is going to be how quickly they gel, as playing as a cohesive defensive unit is something that takes a good deal of time to develop. The other major question for UR is how to replace the D3soccer Midfielder of the Year in Bryce Ikeda. Ikeda was the top points earner last year and was a workhorse in the middle of the park for the Yellow Jackets; replacing him will be a tall task. The same could've been said last year though when UR graduated points leader and AA Geoff Rouin, and UR went one step than the year before. I have no doubt that guys will step up for the Yellow Jackets and once they do, I expect UR to be making another run in the tournament as they have for the past two years.
Wash U: Another down year for Wash U as they finished exactly .500 for the second year in a row, despite posting a much better record in conference play. Given that they finished tied for third in the UAA, you would have expected them to be better overall, but they seemed to lack consistency throughout the season. They also lose points leader and AA Ryan Sproule to graduation, leaving them with no clear go to guy this year. Sproule's younger brother Will was second on the team in points last year and they will hope he can follow in his brother's footsteps this year. If Wash U can stay competitive in conference and find some more consistency out of it then they should have a solid year.
My guess on the tiers this year (alphabetical in each tier):
Top: Case, NYU, UR
Mid: Brandeis, Chicago
Bottom: Carnegie, Emory, WashU
Welcome and thanks for the write-up.
I was going to make a prediction about the sophomore class for Washington University, but that prediction included a few players who dropped off the roster.
Washington University lost to No. 12 St. Thomas, 1-0.
The Tommies scored in the closing seconds of the first half on a penalty kick. The Bears were called for a handball in the box and had to play down a man for the second. Lots of new guys played.
Notably, Matt Martin played the full 90 minutes.
Quote from: WUPHF on August 30, 2019, 09:22:47 PM
Washington University lost to No. 12 St. Thomas, 1-0.
The Tommies scored in the closing seconds of the first half on a penalty kick. The Bears were called for a handball in the box and had to play down a man for the second. Lots of new guys played.
Notably, Matt Martin played the full 90 minutes.
Unfortunately, the video stream from UST didn't work, so I was unable to watch the game live. Reports from the scene were that the Bears looked very good in the first half, when the teams were at even strength, and that's backed up by the fact that they outshot the Tommies 7-2 in the first half. The video now has been posted to UST's web site (https://portal.stretchinternet.com/tommiesports/portal.htm?eventId=549915&streamType=video), so anyone who (lie me) wanted to watch the game, but couldn't, can watch it now.
In other UAA action on opening day:
- Brandeis defeated Roger Williams, 1-0. Blooter covered this one in the New England soccer thread. Deis's next game is tonight against Washington & Lee.
- Chicago tied Macalester, 0-0, outshooting the Scots 20-8. UC will next play at St. Thomas on Sunday afternoon, while Macalester will play WashU.
- Case defeated Heidelberg 1-0, in a game that the Spartans seem to have dominated, given that they outshot their opponent 27-5. Case's next game is against Mount Union on Monday.
- CMU topped Salisbury 2-1. CMU plays St. Mary's of MD today.
- Ithaca beat NYU 4-0, in a game in which each team only took 6 shots, so Ithaca made its shots count! Next up, NYU plays at Hobart this afternoon.
- Rochester lost 3-2 in overtime to Cortland State, the team that d3soccer.com ranks #2 nationally. UR's next game is against John Carroll on Sunday.
Emory didn't play. They begin their season this afternoon against Pomona-Pitzer.
W&L 1-0 up on Brandeis at the half. The Generals have looked a little more mature in possession although the Judges ran with them well in the first. On balance of the first game-and-a-half, this Brandeis side looks slightly more poised than last year's edition but still figuring some things out. The difference was a low shot/cross that found its way past Irwin at his near post in the 32nd minute. If that didn't deflect — and it did not look as if it did on first glance — then that's a mistake on the GK's part. I still feel that Irwin is the best keeper in the squad but he has not convinced all that much in the last year. No shame in losing to a good squad, and I did think W&L would be a bit stronger than 'Deis but it's a shame that an apparent error is the difference thus far. Still 45 left to play.
Brandeis with a header just over about 5 into the second half. The Judges have used a long throw a few times and are trying to send the ball into the box. An equalizer wouldn't be surprising, although you still have to fancy W&L at this point.
Despite advantages of 18-5 in shots and 5-3 in SOG, 'Deis falls to W&L, 1-0. Even with those advantages, they didn't really test the 'keeper and W&L looked somewhat comfortable. The visitors seemed more streetwise and it was a classic example of a mature team going on the road and grinding out a result, something the Judges have done themselves in recent years. Lessons to be taken, but this team looks like it has a chip on its shoulder. They might surprise one or two after last season.
Former player making some predictions for the season here. Sorry if they are a little biased.
1) CWRU - Return most of a strong team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They will have to replace all-UAA Alex Besl, but F Seldon Magruder will be up to the task. They know if they are gonna win the UAA with this core, this is their year.
2) NYU - An extremely young and talented side that plays very stylistically pleasing soccer. Oliver Kleban should have another big year along with a returning sophomore-lead defense. Also, hearing that they added a former D1 striker transfer from American University. Goalkeeping is a question mark.
3) Rochester - Although they lost a lot, particularly their midfield engine Bryce Ikeda, Coach Chris Apple manages to find an upperclassmen to step up time and time again. Look for them to make the tournament on the back of their seniors this year including Aidan Miller.
4) Chicago - Losing one UAA POY is tough, imagine losing three in the same class. UC will have to rely on the talents of Kyle Ziegler and Vicente Mateus to carry a completely new side through the season. Coach Flinn will have a tough task keeping them in the tournament, but with the level of recruiting done in recent years, the talent is there.
5) CMU - CMU lost a lot this year, but they maintain a potent attack. Look for Elliot Cohen to put up 13+ goals this season as this CMU team seems like they can beat almost anybody, but also lose to almost anybody.
6) Brandeis - Brandeis will be better than last year, but thats not saying too much. A year of maturation should help Brandeis' midfield, but the big question was and will continue to be goalkeeping. Was Brandeis up to their expected level last year? No. Could they have made the tournament with better goalkeeping? Possibly. Finding consistency between the sticks will be key for a successful season.
7) Emory - I'm picking Emory to score more UAA goals than last year and win a game (LOL). Emory returns a solid backline/GK and Jun Tsuru up top, a bright spot in an otherwise dreadful UAA showing. Losing Mustapha Khattab hurts, but Emory could have an ace in their sleeve with a couple talented freshmen.
8) WashU - The epitome of inconsistency last year, WashU had the ability to beat or lose to anyone. This year I actually expect worse. They lose all three of their all-UAA performers including striker R Sproule. They will need their underclassmen to show up big time. This team will grind out a couple good results, but lose a lot of tight games.
Thanks and I expect to be way off considering the unpredictability of the UAA every year.
Quote from: SpartanSoccerFan on September 01, 2019, 08:24:49 AM
8) WashU - The epitome of inconsistency last year, WashU had the ability to beat or lose to anyone. This year I actually expect worse. They lose all three of their all-UAA performers including striker R Sproule. They will need their underclassmen to show up big time. This team will grind out a couple good results, but lose a lot of tight games.
Interestingly, Coach Clarke told the student newspaper that he expects the team to be better this year.
Rochester lost a heartbreaker at home to John Carroll this afternoon, surrendering a PK in the final minute of regulation after equalizing on a PK of their own a few minutes earlier. Joining Messiah and Lycoming at 0-2 after facing a tough pair of opponents, I guess we can ask the question of who is the best 0-2 team in the land?
Washington University and UChicago both play to 0-0 ties today in Minnesota.
Quote from: Ommadawn on September 01, 2019, 03:53:06 PM
Rochester lost a heartbreaker at home to John Carroll this afternoon, surrendering a PK in the final minute of regulation after equalizing on a PK of their own a few minutes earlier. Joining Messiah and Lycoming at 0-2 after facing a tough pair of opponents, I guess we can ask the question of who is the best 0-2 team in the land?
I was there for both of UofRs games, and heartbreaker's they were! But they were strong in both games and i'm sure they can address the errors that exposed them. They got back on track today with a win at Keuka, and bigger tests await next week as they take on a couple of Liberty League foes in crosstown rival RIT and then Vassar. The rest of the UAA also produced some interesting results - having seen both Ithaca and NYU up close last year, i would not have predicted 4-0 to the Bombers, and surprised to see CWRU drop points last weekend and this.
Quote from: Dr.Walk-on on August 27, 2019, 08:37:16 PM
As a recently graduated player and longtime reader of these boards, I thought I would finally join in and share my thoughts on things in the UAA....
Wow Dr.Walk-on, you win the Detailed Preview Award for 2019 I'd say! Excellent stuff, keep it coming!
Have watched Chicago play Macalaster, St. Thomas, and North Park this season and am very impressed by their defense. Between Lich, Johnson, Gillespie, and Holquist, they are going to be tough to score on. It will be interesting to see how far the defense can carry Chicago throughout this year. With only two seniors on the team, the back line is still fairly experienced with two three year starters and Johnson starting all four years. I'm not sure the doubt that surrounds them is justified. We will see...
Quote from: EastCoastSoccer on September 07, 2019, 10:20:36 PM
Have watched Chicago play Macalaster, St. Thomas, and North Park this season and am very impressed by their defense. Between Lich, Johnson, Gillespie, and Holquist, they are going to be tough to score on. It will be interesting to see how far the defense can carry Chicago throughout this year. With only two seniors on the team, the back line is still fairly experienced with two three year starters and Johnson starting all four years. I'm not sure the doubt that surrounds them is justified. We will see...
The defense is for real. Wada and Gillespie are huge bodies on the back line and Lich is the ultimate pest at right back. The question is offense, which was MIA for the first two games. They found their mojo today vs. North Park (who hurt themselves with a couple huge gaffes, but UC capitalized and that's what matters). They just gotta find out who their goal scorers are. After 4 years of Lopez and Koh terrorizing defenses, a new offensive identity will need to be formed.
NYU falls to 0-4 on the season.
I do not know much about their SOS, but I definitely did not expect this.
I was encouraged by the 2-0 Washington University win on Friday night. Julian Gancman adroitly capitalized on a Pacific Lutheran Mistake to get his first career goal. He is definitely one to watch.
It's been a rough afternoon for Emory against Washington & Lee in Lexington, as they trail 5-1 with 15 minutes to play. W&L freshman Michael Kutsanzira has a hat trick, and at least 2 of the goals yielded have been due to GK errors. Things don't get any easier for the Eagles, who travel for a back-to-back in Texas next weekend.
Washington University defeated Dominican 3-0.
The sophomores led the way tonight with three quality goals including this header from Nolan Wolf: https://twitter.com/i/status/1172689656825155585
The UAA is not exactly off to a strong start this year. Last year, the lowest ranked UAA team at the end of the season was Brandeis at #51 (all ratings per Massey); this year, three teams are currently ranked below #100. Given that we're already better than halfway through the non-conference season, I've got to think this is going to affect the SoS that has gotten so many UAA teams into the tournament in the last couple of years.
Going through the teams, in order of their Massey ratings:
#9 Chicago (2-0-3): Some things never change. Highest rating in the league, despite the not-so-gaudy (but nevertheless undefeated) record. That record is fortified by the fact that each of their opponents is a top-100 team. The two teams they've beaten, #44 Hope and #46 North Park, are the two-highest rated teams to have been beaten by UAA teams this year. As we all know, Chicago's Class of 2019 included every conference POY since the Eisenhower Administration, but they've responded well to those losses.
#25 Rochester (3-2): The wins were against teams outside the top 100, so they've won the games they should have won. The losses were both against top-12 teams, but they were one-goal losses, one in OT, and the stats suggest that the games were pretty even. So while a team with the U of R's level of success over the last couple of years could have reasonably expected a result against Cortland or John Carroll, they've still responded well to losing a lot of players.
#30 WashU (3-1-1): A loss and a tie against top-100 opponents and three fairly comfortable wins against teams ranked between #132 and #148. The loss to St. Thomas easily could have been a better result for the Bears, as WashU was the better team in the first half against St. Thomas, but then went a man down just before halftime. All in all, a good performance. Some people were asking where the goals would come from, and the answer seems to be "everyone," as only one player has more than one goal (and he has two).
#34 CWRU (3-1-2): A bit of a disappointment to date, as more was expected from the pre-season favorites. The strongest of the three wins is against #159 Heidelberg; they're 0-1-2 against top-50 opponents, none of whom are in the top 20. While I invoked the Plexiglas principle with regard to NYU when I was making my preseason predictions, it may also apply (albeit less strongly) to CWRU. Teams that outperform their expectations one year are the teams that are the most likely to take a step back the next season, and other than NYU, no team in the UAA outperformed its expectations in 2018 more than CWRU.
#43 Brandeis (3-2-1): A solid start. Losses to Tufts and W&L are certainly no cause for shame. The rest of their schedule has also been pretty solid, as only one of their opponents is ranked below #102, and they've done reasonably well against it, with the only blemish in that part of the schedule being the tie against #85 WPI.
#105 CMU (3-3): And now we get into the disappointments section. CMU was doing all right--not fantastic, but all right. The team they defeated in their season-opening win, #51 Salisbury, was the highest-ranked team beaten by any UAA team other than Chicago this year. The two losses were against top-30 teams. And then they lost to previously winless Allegheny last night. Allegheny is now ranked #266, so they must have been close to #300 before that game. Ouch.
#129 Emory (1-3-1): Three losses against top-40 teams and a win against a sub-200 team: Both as expected. A tie against #184 Birmingham-Southern (the college whose name sounds the most like a railroad)? Not so great.
#181 NYU (0-4-1): My expectations were not as high as others, as I expected some regression to the mean, but they seem to have regressed right past the mean. The opening 4-0 loss to #47 Ithaca? Well, these things happen sometimes. The next three losses? Hobart's a good team (#20), but Drew and RUC are ranked in the mid-100s, so that was cause for concern. And then they tied Baruch, which was ranked in the 300s (now #293, thanks to this result)? Ick.
^^^^^^^^^Really well done. Enjoyed reading it.
Your pre-season predictions, though not perfect, are holding up well so far as is the prediction by Coach Clarke that his team is better than last year. I knew we would see more talent from the sophomore class, but the freshmen class is impressive too.
By the way, that last Carnegie Mellon result...
I did not see it so I should not comment, but I figured the Tartans dominated and could not find the back of the next. That does not appear to be the case though judging by the box score: https://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/msoc/2019-20/boxscores/20190916_wyew.xml
Quote from: Buck O. on June 05, 2019, 04:46:28 PM
OK, here goes, with each group in alphabetical order:
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
Quote from: WUPHF on September 17, 2019, 08:01:34 PM
By the way, that last Carnegie Mellon result...
I did not see it so I should not comment, but I figured the Tartans dominated and could not find the back of the next. That does not appear to be the case though judging by the box score: https://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/msoc/2019-20/boxscores/20190916_wyew.xml
I watched most of the first half - CMU started strong but midway through the half Allegheny looked like the better team. With respect to the two UAA teams in the GL: CMU is underachieving right now. They have not put to together a complete 90 minutes in any of their games I saw. They jumped on Salisbury - up 2-0 within the first 20 minutes of the game and then hung on for their lives by game's end. Salisbury missed a chance to tie with 5 minutes to go - CMU player on the goal line makes a great play. But when they possess and swing the ball , involving everyone on the field, they really look good.
Case was just over-ranked. I prefer "over-ranked" vs "overrated" because overrated feels like criticism of the players. Having seen them 5 times - twice in person - there's nothing they are doing wrong to drop points. The GL teams they are playing are just better than ratings or rankings indicate they are.
The parity discussion in the other thread - it surfaces about this time every season. There is definitely more equality in the GL, but I think the initial rankings of teams and expectations created by those rankings are also part one's assessment of a team or league.
Quote from: WUPHF on September 17, 2019, 08:01:34 PM
I did not see it so I should not comment, but I figured the Tartans dominated and could not find the back of the next. That does not appear to be the case though judging by the box score: https://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/msoc/2019-20/boxscores/20190916_wyew.xml
The most interesting thing I saw in the box score was that the game started at 07:30, and not 19:30. ;) Early kick off taken to a whole new level — although the Premier League's early Saturday kickoff is 7:30 a.m. my time (12:30 local time).
Washington University shrugged off a slow start to give Wheaton a great game before eventually falling to the Thunder.
The Bears had a 14-8 advantage on shots on goal including three point-blank shots that were saved by the Wheaton GK. The Bears missed on a first-half penalty kick and the game looked as though it may end 3-1 before the Bears got one back.
3-2 was the final.
Looks like the UAA got back on track a bit this weekend with wins or draws for everyone except for the aforementioned WashU. game. The league hasn't fared well so far in the non-conference schedule, but good to see several teams starting to hit their stride.
Quote from: MaturinNYC on September 23, 2019, 10:29:25 AM
Looks like the UAA got back on track a bit this weekend with wins or draws for everyone except for the aforementioned WashU. game. The league hasn't fared well so far in the non-conference schedule, but good to see several teams starting to hit their stride.
This week, the UAA started to get back to being the UAA, with wins over top-50 teams in Loras and Hobart. But #9 John Carroll and #38 Wheaton (IL) both went 1-0-1 against the UAA, and Deis dropped points to sub-100 WNEC. Opportunities for UAA teams to improve their rankings will be limited over the next week, since several teams play the softest part of their schedule right before entering into UAA play. Since my post last Tuesday (with all rankings referring to Massey):
#10 Chicago (3-0-4) fell one slot, with a tie against #38 Wheaton (IL) and a win over #31 Loras. Loras now becomes the highest-ranked team to have lost to a UAA team this year. Next up: just a trip to #6 Calvin on Wed. for a rematch of last year's national semifinal match that ended the careers of Chicago's Class of 2019. Then the Maroons play #92 Kalamazoo and #142 Elmhurst, which will be the first team outside the top 100 they've played.
#18 Rochester (5-2) rose 7 slots with wins over #144 Geneseo St. and #48 Hobart. Next, they play #319 St. John Fisher and #239 Alvernia.
#36 CWRU (4-2-2) dropped two slots with a loss to #9 John Carroll before rebounding to defeat #58 Adrian. Next up: #184 Marietta and #43 Otterbein.
#46 Brandeis (3-2-2) dropped three slots with a tie against #139 WNEC, the worst result for a UAA team this week. Next up: #168 Wheaton (MA) and #274 Mitchell.
#47 WashU (3-2-1) only played once, and dropped 17 slots due to a loss to #38 Wheaton (IL). They'll play #190 Webster and #222 Greenville next.
#67 Emory (3-3-1) really enjoyed their weekend in Texas, rising 62 slots due to wins over #103 MHB and #61 UT-Dallas. Next up: #105 Sewanee and #170 Rhodes.
#96 CMU (4-3-1) rebounded from their loss to Allegheny by beating #268 Grove City and then tying #9 John Carroll, the first blemish on JCU's record. As a result, they rose by 9 slots. Next up: #76 Lycoming.
#177 NYU (2-4-1) finally got some wins, defeating #344 SUNY Maritime and #347 Hunter. For quite a while, the game against Maritime was scoreless, and I was wondering if NYU would follow its tie against Baruch by gakking up another game against a sub-300 opponent, but they finally came through with a goal in the 81st minute. They only rose by 4 slots in the rankings due to those wins, but they'll have a chance to move much further if they can get a result against #52 Stevens.
Brandeis finishes 0-0 with the 5-loss Wheaton College (Mass) Lyons.
Quote from: WUPHF on September 24, 2019, 08:58:58 PM
Brandeis finishes 0-0 with the 5-loss Wheaton College (Mass) Lyons.
Brandeis needs to get their freshman stud DeNight back to create some offense for them
They've exceeded expectations to date given their graduation and coaching changes, but I'll be very impressed if Chicago gets out of Michigan without a loss.
Quote from: blooter442 on September 24, 2019, 09:31:04 PM
They've exceeded expectations to date given their graduation and coaching changes, but I'll be very impressed if Chicago gets out of Michigan without a loss.
Calvin taken to OT three times this year - at home; has played two teams with a winning record. Chicago's 5 road games YTD (2 home) were against substantial opponents. I did see some of Calvin's victory over ONU - can attack as we've seen in the past. Have conceded 8 goals against lesser competition - conceded 9 goals in all of the regular season last year. No doubt they will be up for this game but they are not the defensive team of the past.
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 25, 2019, 06:31:47 AM
Calvin taken to OT three times this year - at home; has played two teams with a winning record. Chicago's 5 road games YTD (2 home) were against substantial opponents. I did see some of Calvin's victory over ONU - can attack as we've seen in the past. Have conceded 8 goals against lesser competition - conceded 9 goals in all of the regular season last year. No doubt they will be up for this game but they are not the defensive team of the past.
Fair enough, and upon further reflection they also did lose a lot of offensive production last year. I guess I didn't realize how much of the scoring load Witte, McCaw, et al carried. Even so, I didn't ever really consider Calvin to be a "defensive" team, although Vegter was an absolute stud and his loss can't be understated.
As for Chicago, the win against Loras on Friday night was impressive, but it seemed like a smash-and-grab based on the shot count — Chicago's recap even described it as "opportunistic" finishing. Defensively they have been solid, and I do think Katsimpalis could be as good as Bonin was in net, and the GAA of 0.75 speaks to that.
What I think prompted this observation, though, is that these early-season Chicago results remind me of the 2015 season, when — having fallen ass-backwards into the UAA title the previous year (going 5-0-2 in conference yet 6-5 out of conference) they started 2015 5-0 and seemed ready to be anointed repeat UAA champions — but I felt that the results were relatively unconvincing. In the sixth game, they got smacked 4-0 at home by Loras. That was really when the dam burst: they won just two of their next seven and they almost missed the NCAA tournament (a 3-2 2OT win against WashU from 2-0 down in the last game of the season likely proved crucial in their selection). They were a young team at that point — actually I do think in terms of sheer talent (Koh, Lopez, etc. were freshmen) they were more talented than Brandeis, who won the UAA that year, but Brandeis was more experienced and ground out sixteen one-goal wins. A reverse from the previous year when the Judges went 17-2 in the regular season versus Chicago's 11-5-2 but Chicago won the conference. Moreover, Chicago matured a lot following that year (the first of 3 consecutive conference titles). However, I don't think this team is as strong as any of the teams 2015 to present, and definitely not offensively.
Moreover, Calvin throttled Chicago 4-1 last year in that NCAA game, and that could have been five or six, they were that dominant. Chicago's 1-0 win at Calvin earlier that year seemed a million miles away from that, the Maroons got absolutely ripped apart. That still weighs pretty heavily on the mind, although admittedly neither team is 100% the same. Moreover, Chicago's leading scorer thus far has three goals and they have scored a total of 10 goals in 7 games — worth noting that Chicago has played a tougher slate; still, not exactly awe-inspiring offensive production, and the four ties speak to that. Put all those factors with Calvin playing at home, and I have a tough time seeing anything other than a Calvin win.
Could Chicago win? Absolutely. Moreover, I am well aware that no two years are the same. Still, can't get by my hunch. I guess it's up to the Maroons to prove me wrong.
As far as "offense" goes this year, from a GL and Midwest perspective: I find the attack of most GL teams to be offensive! ;D
I'll post some thoughts on some key GL games tonight over on that thread but I think if the opponents of some GL teams left the field during a game it might still take them 10 minutes to score.
Calvin's OT game winners against Wooster and Aquinas were headers directly off a corner kick. Set pieces - always important - are dominating boxscores. I saw a goal from the run of play last week - didn't know how to respond.
Quote from: blooter442 on September 25, 2019, 09:33:48 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on September 25, 2019, 06:31:47 AM
Calvin taken to OT three times this year - at home; has played two teams with a winning record. Chicago's 5 road games YTD (2 home) were against substantial opponents. I did see some of Calvin's victory over ONU - can attack as we've seen in the past. Have conceded 8 goals against lesser competition - conceded 9 goals in all of the regular season last year. No doubt they will be up for this game but they are not the defensive team of the past.
Fair enough, and upon further reflection they also did lose a lot of offensive production last year. I guess I didn't realize how much of the scoring load Witte, McCaw, et al carried. Even so, I didn't ever really consider Calvin to be a "defensive" team, although Vegter was an absolute stud and his loss can't be understated.
As for Chicago, the win against Loras on Friday night was impressive, but it seemed like a smash-and-grab based on the shot count — Chicago's recap even described it as "opportunistic" finishing. Defensively they have been solid, and I do think Katsimpalis could be as good as Bonin was in net, and the GAA of 0.75 speaks to that.
What I think prompted this observation, though, is that these early-season Chicago results remind me of the 2015 season, when — having fallen ass-backwards into the UAA title the previous year (going 5-0-2 in conference yet 6-5 out of conference) they started 2015 5-0 and seemed ready to be anointed repeat UAA champions — but I felt that the results were relatively unconvincing. In the sixth game, they got smacked 4-0 at home by Loras. That was really when the dam burst: they won just two of their next seven and they almost missed the NCAA tournament (a 3-2 2OT win against WashU from 2-0 down in the last game of the season likely proved crucial in their selection). They were a young team at that point — actually I do think in terms of sheer talent (Koh, Lopez, etc. were freshmen) they were more talented than Brandeis, who won the UAA that year, but Brandeis was more experienced and ground out sixteen one-goal wins. A reverse from the previous year when the Judges went 17-2 in the regular season versus Chicago's 11-5-2 but Chicago won the conference. Moreover, Chicago matured a lot following that year (the first of 3 consecutive conference titles). However, I don't think this team is as strong as any of the teams 2015 to present, and definitely not offensively.
Moreover, Calvin throttled Chicago 4-1 last year in that NCAA game, and that could have been five or six, they were that dominant. Chicago's 1-0 win at Calvin earlier that year seemed a million miles away from that, the Maroons got absolutely ripped apart. That still weighs pretty heavily on the mind, although admittedly neither team is 100% the same. Moreover, Chicago's leading scorer thus far has three goals and they have scored a total of 10 goals in 7 games — worth noting that Chicago has played a tougher slate; still, not exactly awe-inspiring offensive production, and the four ties speak to that. Put all those factors with Calvin playing at home, and I have a tough time seeing anything other than a Calvin win.
Could Chicago win? Absolutely. Moreover, I am well aware that no two years are the same. Still, can't get by my hunch. I guess it's up to the Maroons to prove me wrong.
If by "ass backwards" you meant "dominated defensively". In 2014, UChicago gave up 1 goal in 7 conference games, and made the second round of NCAAs. Bonin's save percentage that year was .840.
Quote from: blue_jays on September 25, 2019, 08:23:27 PM
If by "ass backwards" you meant "dominated defensively". In 2014, UChicago gave up 1 goal in 7 conference games, and made the second round of NCAAs. Bonin's save percentage that year was .840.
They were stingy defensively in conference, I'll give you that, and Bonin was a good choice for UAA RoY, but not sure I would call it dominating defensively — I'd use that label for Tufts conceding two goals in the whole of 2017 playing an SoS well north of .600 (while being sure to note that Chicago's SoS has been top three in the country the past several years). Anyway, to me, dominating defensively would mean that Chicago was equally strong in that area in non-conference games — I certainly don't think losing five non-conference games was in the plan. That being said, you have to hand it to them for pulling it together when it mattered.
As for tonight's game, seem to be a relatively even contest, with Calvin's quick start (and a couple of big moments going for the hosts) proving the difference.
Washington University needed 104 minute to get the 1-0 win over crosstown rival Webster. The Bears were yet again in the right place at the right time. The Webster GK bobbed the ball and Makio Yamamoto capitalized.
31 shots, 14 corners and countless well played offensive sequences.
And here we are, the UAA 2019 kicks off this weekend! Last chance to get your picks in people – and while there have been some eyebrow raising results so far in the non-conference games, the UAA guarantees action every time. Since this is all for fun, and since Buck O. can't be the only guy here doing number-crunching research, I awarded 3 points for each accurate prediction based on current standings (i.e. based soley on win % and as reported on the UAASports.info site) – and here's the early pre-conference leaderboard:
CURRENT (ranked by team win % - all teams 0-0-0 in UAA):
Top 3: Rochester, WashU, Chicago
Mid 3: Brandeis, Emory, Case
Last 2: Carnegie, NYU
Buck O.: 18 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
RollDeisRoll 15 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
Dr.Walk-On* 12 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory*
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
MaturinNYC: 9 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
*Dr.Walk-On originally had 3 teams in bottom tier, so I moved his Emory pick up a rung and got him 3 pts., as a favor to a recent grad - last one though... ;-)
No surprise that BuckO – a keen observer of the league – has so far proven the most accurate, but can he keep the lead over 28 games? Will the recent grads RollDeisRoll & Dr.Walk-On prove that their knowledge and insights prevail? Will I get out of the cellar at all? We'll know more after Carnegie Mellon & Brandeis get things rolling, Saturday at 1:30pm. Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!
Washington University defeated Greenville 3-0.
Greenville had 5-6 counters that were absolutely scary but had little else to offer.
Big game tonight for Brandeis. They sit at 4-2-3 but are 1-1-3 in their last 5 games against decent but not top competition in New England. The win was against Mitchell and it does seem that Margolis found the need in the off season to pick up another easy game to go along with its yearly Mass Maritime beatdown. That possibly could show the lack of confidence he had in the upcoming season.I have not seen them play yet this year but I saw them enough last year to get a grasp of what's going on. I see a lot of the same pieces on the roster from last year with Walter, Burch, Hennessey, Gans etc etc.. I do not see Nardizzi, quit? Transfer? I thought he was a decent enough player but not what Brandeis needed or was expecting. He was remarkably lazy compared to Brandeis strikers of the past and not a tough kid at all. He did score 6 goals but I didn't really rate him as a finisher. Brandeis was soft last year but still have plenty of skill and talent on this roster but its spine had to get more physical. Not sure if Brandeis is having these same problems or new ones.
Brandeis has dominated this matchup going clean basically this whole decade as they are 7-0-1 v MIT in their last 8 games. Interestingly, the one year MIT got a draw was against Brandeis most talented team this decade in 2015. MIT is 4-0-4 and probably plodding along so could be a good matchup
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 01, 2019, 07:32:56 AM
Big game tonight for Brandeis. They sit at 4-2-3 but are 1-1-3 in their last 5 games against decent but not top competition in New England. The win was against Mitchell and it does seem that Margolis found the need in the off season to pick up another easy game to go along with its yearly Mass Maritime beatdown. That possibly could show the lack of confidence he had in the upcoming season.I have not seen them play yet this year but I saw them enough last year to get a grasp of what's going on. I see a lot of the same pieces on the roster from last year with Walter, Burch, Hennessey, Gans etc etc.. I do not see Nardizzi, quit? Transfer? I thought he was a decent enough player but not what Brandeis needed or was expecting. He was remarkably lazy compared to Brandeis strikers of the past and not a tough kid at all. He did score 6 goals but I didn't really rate him as a finisher. Brandeis was soft last year but still have plenty of skill and talent on this roster but its spine had to get more physical. Not sure if Brandeis is having these same problems or new ones.
Brandeis has dominated this matchup going clean basically this whole decade as they are 7-0-1 v MIT in their last 8 games. Interestingly, the one year MIT got a draw was against Brandeis most talented team this decade in 2015. MIT is 4-0-4 and probably plodding along so could be a good matchup
Nardizzi transferred to Framingham State, where I believe he's playing with his brother.
Quote from: OldNed on October 01, 2019, 07:41:51 AM
Nardizzi transferred to Framingham State, where I believe he's playing with his brother.
Yep, he's playing with his two younger brothers, but appears to be hurt at the moment, as he did not play in yesterday's game against Springfield.
Brandeis gets out of UAA opening day with a 2-0 win. Two goals in the first 7 minutes of the second half. Brandeis was objectively the stronger team and won most of the 50/50s and second balls. They seem to be really focusing on pressing given their relative lack of size and to be fair they seem to do it well. Panson finally seems to be getting stuck in — someone opined to me that he is "small" but the kid is 6', that is not small particularly in this team. He played a nice game, as did DeNight when he came on and Burch at RB looked really good on both sides of the ball. I also like FY Norris, who scored the first goal. Irwin was solid — he has looked so much better the last 7 or so games than he did all of last season. Think him getting the starting job without being platooned with Cohen (whom I don't think is playing this year) did a world of good for his confidence. Carnegie has some nice players and kept it tidy with passing but did not have any real penetration except for one shot cleared off the line at 0-0. In keeping with the last few meetings between these teams it was comparatively a bit ill-tempered but no major flash points (unlike 2017 where there was a melee at the final whistle). With all the parity this year Brandeis looks able to crack the top 25 but Carnegie seems to be below their normal standards so that may be a red herring. Still, 6-2-3 means they've almost matched last year's win total while keeping the losses down. Still think they could have avoided the Wheaton/etc. ties but based on today like what I see in terms of work rate and potential.
Chicago over Emory 5-0. Wow!
Quote from: WUPHF on October 05, 2019, 04:32:51 PM
Chicago over Emory 5-0. Wow!
Emory took a page from the Elmhurst book: they put everyone behind the ball the whole first half and hoped for the best. It almost worked, right until UChicago scored a corner kick right before halftime. Then, just like Elmhurst, Emory pressed and opened themselves up, and the Maroons burned em to cinders in the second half. UC doesn't have a Lopez or Koh that strikes fear in your heart, but they are still opportunistic and dangerous. Give em an inch, they'll take a mile. Also, Ruark's triple juke and back heel pass in his 1v1 might be assist of the year.
Thanks for that update on the Chicago-Emory game and the heads-up on that Kyle Ruark assist.
Thankfully the Chicago SID posted it on Twitter. Definitely something to see: https://twitter.com/i/status/1180574542613360640
Also, checking in on the Case Western Reserve-NYU game and the Spartans trail 2-0.
Once again, the Carnegie Mellon coach did not shake everyone's hands in the line yesterday. He got about halfway through the Brandeis players and just turned around and walked to his bench. That's now the third year in a row he's done that. He got chirped by some recent Brandeis alumni in the beer tent as he was walking away as they saw the whole thing, and they dealt with it when they were playing
Quote from: rolldeisroll on October 06, 2019, 03:17:46 PM
Once again, the Carnegie Mellon coach did not shake everyone's hands in the line yesterday. He got about halfway through the Brandeis players and just turned around and walked to his bench. That's now the third year in a row he's done that. He got chirped by some recent Brandeis alumni in the beer tent as he was walking away as they saw the whole thing, and they dealt with it when they were playing
Par for the course for that guy, surprised he even went in the line ... he's a real peach and has proven it throughout his career...
Washington University gets the 1-0 win at home over Rochester. Only got to watches 20 minutes or so online. I love this team.
Two fun games from WashU's point of view. Along with the men's victory, the WashU women came from behind early in the 2nd half to score 3 unanswered goals for a 3-1 win.
This WashU men's team works very hard. Sean Connors was out of breath during the post-game interview segment. He was great on both ends of the field. Isaac Plutzer is a rock on the back line, along with Alistair Shaw. Connor Mathes made a great save on UR's Aidan Martin, diving to the far post and putting a paw on the ball to freeze it on the post before it could trickle across the line. Julian Gancman and Alex Smith are troublesome figures on the flanks to corral.
Lots to like about these Bears!
Quote from: WUPHF on October 05, 2019, 09:49:33 PM
Thanks for that update on the Chicago-Emory game and the heads-up on that Kyle Ruark assist.
Thankfully the Chicago SID posted it on Twitter. Definitely something to see: https://twitter.com/i/status/1180574542613360640
Also, checking in on the Case Western Reserve-NYU game and the Spartans trail 2-0.
Beautiful piece of work--thank you for sharing.
Quote from: jaybird44 on October 06, 2019, 07:05:37 PM
Along with the men's victory, the WashU women came from behind early in the 2nd half to score 3 unanswered goals for a 3-1 win.
I often feel guilty for not acknowledging the Women but they are so good, I expect them to win every game. Congratulations to Coach Conlon for win No. 200. Building a dynasty.
As for the Men, it is hard to add more to your list without adding everyone, but obviously Wolf and Lamba and, well, everybody.
Thanks for the call today.
Quote from: Falconer on October 06, 2019, 07:39:53 PM
Quote from: WUPHF on October 05, 2019, 09:49:33 PM
Thanks for that update on the Chicago-Emory game and the heads-up on that Kyle Ruark assist.
Thankfully the Chicago SID posted it on Twitter. Definitely something to see: https://twitter.com/i/status/1180574542613360640
Also, checking in on the Case Western Reserve-NYU game and the Spartans trail 2-0.
Beautiful piece of work--thank you for sharing.
You can tell that Ruark enjoyed that as much as if it was his goal...and given the setup, as he should!
I was at the Rochester v. Wash U game yesterday and true to form, it was a classic UAA battle that could've gone either way. From my blue & yellow eyes Rochester was very unlucky not to have scored in the first half, generating a lot of opportunity but just not getting enough to really test the keeper other than one SOG that almost spun over the line. Defensively both sides were strong, but Rochester seemed to be solving some possession issues and were causing Wash U problems just when an ill-timed challenge gave the home side a free kick 25 yards out that they converted. After that, Wash U played with much more confidence and ease and Rochester couldn't get the ball to their dangerous midfield. It'll be interesting to see how both teams progress from here, as both have some positives to build on and issues to correct.
Quote from: MaturinNYC on October 07, 2019, 02:33:01 PM
I was at the Rochester v. Wash U game yesterday and true to form, it was a classic UAA battle that could've gone either way. From my blue & yellow eyes Rochester was very unlucky not to have scored in the first half, generating a lot of opportunity but just not getting enough to really test the keeper other than one SOG that almost spun over the line. Defensively both sides were strong, but Rochester seemed to be solving some possession issues and were causing Wash U problems just when an ill-timed challenge gave the home side a free kick 25 yards out that they converted. After that, Wash U played with much more confidence and ease and Rochester couldn't get the ball to their dangerous midfield. It'll be interesting to see how both teams progress from here, as both have some positives to build on and issues to correct.
I can't comment on the first 50 minutes or so, since I didn't see it, but I saw the remainder of the second half rather differently. Rochester had the better of the play by a slight margin for the first portion of the second half, but I don't recall them generating much in the way of chances as a result--which is why with about 20 minutes left in the game, each team had just one SOG. But then WashU asserted itself and was able to generate a number of opportunities. First, Wolf fed Yamamoto with shot from about 12 yards that went just wide in the 72nd minute. Then Aidan Ryan played Wolf through in the 74th minute, but Rochester's keeper, Curran, was able to get to the ball just in time. Finally, Connors scored on the free kick in the 78th minute, but I thought that was consistent with the run of play over the preceding several minutes.
Quote from: Buck O. on October 08, 2019, 12:35:07 PM
I can't comment on the first 50 minutes or so, since I didn't see it, but I saw the remainder of the second half rather differently. Rochester had the better of the play by a slight margin for the first portion of the second half, but I don't recall them generating much in the way of chances as a result--which is why with about 20 minutes left in the game, each team had just one SOG. But then WashU asserted itself and was able to generate a number of opportunities.
Yes sorry - that's what i saw as well in that time frame, my post probably had hangover from the first half. I thought Wash U especially dominated the final 15 min or so and played with a confidence they didn't have at the start, especially after the goal. I did think Rochester had tried to find their midfield after the break, but in the end that didn't help them get any opportunity on net.
Hello Internet Friends.
Been reading your insights for a while and enjoying them. Thank you for taking the time to put your thoughts up for discussion. One of my favorite parts of the banter has been the prognostications.
Good games this weekend for predicting. While I don't think my insights are as clear as many of you, it's not really fair to ask and not volunteer my guesses. So here goes:
Saturday games:
Brandeis at CW--Case seems short in some key talent positions. Brandeis has tightened their D. Brandeis 2:0 Case
NYU at CMU--Two teams headed in different directions. CMU not in good form currently, NYU seems to have found their groove a bit. NYU 2:0 CMU
Wash at Emory--Emory has had problems with quality sides. Wash U seems a quality side. Emory at home, but still falls. WU 3:1 Emory.
Sunday
Chicago at Rochester--You have to consider Chicago the class of the league with 5:0 performance. But I don't think Rochester goes so easily. Chicago 3:1 Rochester. A late Chicago goal will give them breathing room from what should be a physical match.
I'll hop on the prediction bandwagon too... Big win for Deis, they're not 5-0-1 against Carnegie in their last 6 games, and the one tie was when Ocel got a red card and they played a man down for the last 85 minutes.
Brandeis at Case: Funnily enough, this is Case's "homecoming" game, and it's being played at Oberlin. This is a team that now has a must win game in front of them, so I think they'll put up a fight, but if Walter starts at CB for Deis I think they can negate lots of the attack.
------ Deis 1 - 0 Case
NYU at Carnegie: I never really rated Carnegie, probably because of the success we had during my time playing, but this seemed like the worst version of themselves in the last 5 years. Still not fully bought in on NYU though. They need a big win to prove to me they're back to the steps they made last year. I'm thinking draw on this one, score will be whatever, but I'll say...
------ NYU 1 - 1 Carnegie
Wash U at Emory: Don't trust Wash U just yet, but they put in a heck of a performance last weekend, and Emory I think is still reeling. Even at home I think they drop another one.
------ Wash U 2 - 0 Emory
Chicago at Rochester: Both these teams I think are at a point where their season kind of hangs in the balance. Rochester has played I would say 4 "good" teams, in Cortland, John Carrol, Wash U, and Hobart, and they are 1-3 in those games. I thought they'd have a great run of form in the league, but I don't think they've fully proven to be a 7-3 team. Chicago has proven they can go on the road and grind out tough results, but I think at some point some of those ties will turn into losses. I think they pull this one out, but it could easily fall to a draw as well.
Chicago 3 - 2 Rochester
I don't like picking against my Brandeis friends, but CWRU is in dire need of a positive result and I think they get it. There is a lot of talent left from last year's Case squad, and they are due for a good win as well. They also have the time (and needed type of opponents) to turn their season around and make a run in the tourney. Their SoS will be there and they can still rack up 2-3 ranked wins.
Haven't followed the UAA as closely as past years but love reading the thread to stay in touch with this juggernaut of a conference. Jumping in for these picks so here we go!
Brandies 2
CWRU 1
CMU 3
NYU 1
Wash U 1
Emory 0
OT
Chicago 2
UR 2
2OT
Brandeis draws with Case Western, 0-0
Carnegie Mellon over NYU, 1-0
Washington University draws with Emory, 1-1
Chicago over Rochester, 1-0
_____________________________
ʎǝssɐɯ uǝʞ ʎq suoᴉʇɔᴉpǝɹd
The weather looks great for this weekend's games - not sure my predictions will look as good afterwards, but here goes:
Brandies 2
CWRU 2 2OT
CMU 1
NYU 2
Wash U 1
Emory 0
Chicago 1
UR 3
UR v Chicago--0-0
NYU v CMU---0-2
Emory v Wash U---0-3
CWRU v Deis----1-1
My picks (as usual, all ratings per Massey):
#11 Chicago at #45 Rochester: The game of the week. Despite last week's blowout of Emory, Chicago doesn't have the firepower that it's had in the recent past, and they only have one win over a top-50 team (#32 North Park). But they still seem to be the best team in the conference. Rochester's recent winning streak, which included six straight clean sheets, was compiled against subpar competition for the most part (with #46 Hobart being the only top-150 opponent in that stretch), so I think they can be scored upon, although defense does seem to be their strength. I'll go with a 1-1 tie, although a Chicago win in OT wouldn't surprise me.
#21 WashU @ #54 Emory: I don't see why Massey's formulas rank Emory this highly. They've conceded five goals twice and four goals a third time, and while those were all in games against top-20 teams, the #54 team should be able to do better than that. Their sole top-100 win is against #47 Covenant, and I'm not sure that I'm buying that ranking either, as Covenant's record is built on a bunch of wins over weak teams and one win against #29 NC Wesleyan, which in turn has beaten no one in the top 125. OTOH, WashU is unlikely to score a lot of goals, as their strength this year is defense, not offense, although Nolan "Microwave" Wolf has helped the latter significantly. I'll take WashU in a 2-0 win.
#39 Brandeis vs #114 Case, @ Oberlin: Brandeis's only losses are to top-10 opponents. The Tufts loss occurred in the middle of an unimpressive 0-1-3 stretch in which they tied #65 WPI, #123 WNEC and #122 Wheaton (MA), but those were all games that leading scorer Will DeNight missed. Case simply has not impressed. In addition to their loss to #211 Marietta, they have two other losses to teams in the 140s; their best win is against #81 Otterbein. All in all, their #114 ranking seems deserved. I'll take Deis, 2-0.
#147 NYU @ #142 CMU: NYU has turned its season around with four straight wins, albeit probably too late for a repeat NCAA bid unless they win the AQ (unlikely). They're 0-2 aginst top-50 teams, and 2-2 against teams in the 100s. CMU has played a bimodal schedule, with no opponents ranked between #93 and #267. Their best result is a tie against #33 JCU, although JCU had a significant statistical edge in that game (19-7 in shots, 9-2 in SOG). And then there's the Allegheny loss. All in all, NYU looks a little better and certainly is coming off a better result from last week, but CMU's at home, so I'll go with a 1-1 tie.
Brandeis equalizes with less than 10 minutes remaining in regulation against Case, who had scored directly from a corner in the first half. Looked like the wind caught it, although it did loop over Irwin so questions will be asked. Brandeis' equalizer came from a set piece of its own. Many had predicted current form to roll on but Case is up for this one and quite frankly should be further ahead based on the number of opportunities they've had. Now the Judges look like the team with the momentum. Crazy old game, this.
Emory was a deserving winner over WashU, winning 1-0 on a goal in the 85th minute. Emory was the better team for the first 55 minutes or so, creating almost all of the scoring opportunities (although not a lot of them) and having a first half goal called back for offside. WashU had the advantage over the last 35 minutes or so, and narrowly missed a couple of shots, but Emory's Matthew Tanzer was able to bring the ball up the left flank, and he played in a cross into the box to Alejandro Gomez for the winner.
Case has a penalty denied and then Brandeis has a header by Panarra, the goalscorer, hacked off the line. Wasn't the best header but beat the goalkeeper and was kicked away by the man on the post. I think both teams might take a draw, although neither team can afford many more with 2 and 3 ties, respectively.
Update: 1-1 is the final. Both teams will feel they could have won it, with Case having a number of chances at 1-0 and Brandeis turning up its levels after the equalizer and carrying the play through both OT periods (outshot Case 6-1 through the two OTs). Given they were on the back foot for most of the game I think the Judges will be happier with that result, even considering Case's opening UAA weekend pummeling, although both teams may feel it's an opportunity missed to some degree.
Looking forward, the Chicago-UR game could be HUGE in terms of the UAA race. The league looks as wide open as it's ever been, although you have to look first to Chicago given its dominant opening weekend win.
Chicago defeats Rochester 2-0 to set up the following standings.
Chicago 2-0, 6-1-4
New York University 2-0, 5-4-1
Brandeis 1-0-1, 6-2-4
Washington U. 1-1, 6-3-1
Emory 1-1, 7-4-1
Case Western Reserve 0-1-1, 5-4-3
Rochester 0-2, 7-4
Carnegie Mellon 0-2, 4-6-1
I know we all had NYU tied with Chicago in first place (kidding).
Looking ahead...
-NYU and Brandeis host Washington University and Chicago next weekend so big weekend.
-Chicago will then host their final three UAA matches including Washington University.
-Brandeis will then travel to Emory and Rochester before hosting NYU.
-Emory will travel to Case and Carnegie Mellon before hosting Brandeis, NYU and Rochester.
Also, I think I took this round of picks, but I need to check again.
Chicago leaves Rochester with a 2-0 win today to go 2-0 in the league. A fairly physical battle with both teams struggling to produce any decent shots on frame, until Chicago got on the board in the 30th minute, putting away a rebound that started as a shot 25 yards out and came off the UR keeper and into the feet of a Chicago forward. The 1st half saw Chicago with most of the ball, while the 2nd half saw Rochester with most of the ball and a hard push for the equalizer, creating the best chance of the game for them early after the restart that just went wide of the post. In a battle between two of last year's Final Four teams, Chicago withstood the 20 min Rochester pressure and made the better use of their set pieces, including the game-sealing 2nd goal on a free kick just outside of the box with 10 to go.
Chicago and NYU now sit atop the standings after 2 games. Rochester is 0-2, but based on what i've seen it's hard to see that trend continue.
Big weekend. Should be fun to follow. After my picks from last week, I don't know if I'm worthy of the pixels. But here we go anyway.
Friday
Em 2:1 CW (continuing the hard season for Case), Chi 1:0 Br (Can't pick against Chicago until they lose) R 3:0 CM (Rochester flexing after a tough Chicago loss) WU 0:2 NYU (Mostly to set up a top v top game on Sunday with Chicago)
Sunday
Chicago 0:NYU 1 (The story at the end of the year will be NYUs defense) R 2:1 CW (Case starts thinking about next year) WU 1:1 Br (even steven) Em 2:1 CM (Solidifying CM in the bottom tier)
Quote from: SideNetting on October 17, 2019, 08:37:53 AM
Big weekend. Should be fun to follow. After my picks from last week, I don't know if I'm worthy of the pixels. But here we go anyway.
Friday
Em 2:1 CW (continuing the hard season for Case), Chi 1:0 Br (Can't pick against Chicago until they lose) R 3:0 CM (Rochester flexing after a tough Chicago loss) WU 0:2 NYU (Mostly to set up a top v top game on Sunday with Chicago)
Sunday
Chicago 0:NYU 1 (The story at the end of the year will be NYUs defense) R 2:1 CW (Case starts thinking about next year) WU 1:1 Br (even steven) Em 2:1 CM (Solidifying CM in the bottom tier)
Can't pick against Chicago until they lose and in same comment pick them to lose to NYU???
Quote from: d3commenter on October 17, 2019, 01:51:41 PM
Can't pick against Chicago until they lose and in same comment pick them to lose to NYU???
To be fair to the poster, they fully acknowledged that they may not be "worth the pixels." That said, I thought your observation was humorous and valid (would not bank on 'Deis beating Chicago, myself, but that's why they play the games).
As for NYU's defense being the story (5-4-1) — they started 0-4 but have pulled it together since (drawing their fifth game and winning the last five in succession). There is certainly UAA precedent for having a "meh" out-of-conference record only to perform well in-conference (I have cited Chicago 2014 numerous times). The one thing I would say about that, though, is that their good run (5-0-1 in the last six) has been built on a shaky foundation (0-4 in the first four) and sometimes a bad result following a good run built on a shaky foundation results in a big drop in confidence and, in turn, more bad results. Chicago had an indifferent start but they were tying, not losing, games, so I think they are a bit stronger and more confident.
All this is not to say that NYU isn't capable of beating Chicago, but if anyone is going to be noted for their defense at year's end I think it will be the latter. Any shortcomings the Maroons have had offensively — they, too, took a little while to get going and have four ties to their name — has been offset by their defense.
Given how well my picks fared last week, I probably shouldn't do this, but here goes. As always, all ratings per Massey:
Friday
#8 Chicago @ #45 Brandeis: Chicago is pretty clearly the best team in the league. Who's #2 is much tougher to answer, but I'm currently leaning towards thinking that it's Deis. That win over Babson looks better very day. If Chicago's going to stub its toe, this is the most likely time for it to happen. Considering that these teams are tied for the league lead in ties, it seems appropriate to forecast a 1-1 tie.
#42 WashU @ #124 NYU: Yes, NYU's tied for the conference lead. They also played Case and CMU, which are the other two sub-100 teams in the conference. And, FWIW, they were outshot in both games (16-9 vs. Case, 13-8 vs. CMU). And they've won five in a row, but the best team they've beaten is #93 Stevens. Meanwhile, WashU has put up a superior record against the #24 schedule in the country; NYU's, by comparison, is #114. WashU, 1-0.
#60 Rochester @ #178 CMU: Before the season, I thought that CMU was the likely last-place finisher in the league, and their results thus far have borne out that forecast. (Allegheny has now fallen outside the top 300. Double ick.) While Rochester has four losses, they've all been by narrow margins to top-50 teams; I think that #60 rating sells the Yellowjackets a little short. I don't see them blowing anyone out, but I don't see them losing to CMU, either, even in Steel City. Rochester 1, CMU 0.
#41 Emory @ #113 Case: For the reasons I've given previously, I'm not buying the idea that Emory is #41. I think they should be somewhere between #80 and #100. And while this Case team has significantly underperformed expectations, let's remember that this team had a lot of success last year. I'll take Case, 2-1.
Sunday
#8 Chicago @ #124 NYU: I see the Maroons taking this one pretty easily, 3-0.
#42 WashU @ #45 Brandeis: The game of the week, and one that should go a long way toward deciding who finishes #2 in this league. Blooter and I should place a bet on this one, but, while I certainly think WashU has a good chance, my head tells me that Deis should be favored. I'll take Deis, 1-0, while hoping to be wrong.
#60 Rochester @ #113 Case: Rochester 1, Case 1.
#41 Emory @ #178 CMU: Emory 2, CMU 1.
Tonight in the UAA...
Chicago over Brandeis, 1-0
Carnegie Mellon over Rochester, 2-0
Case Western Reserve and Emory tied, 2-2
NYU over Washington University, 1-0
The UAA has just four games left and if Chicago gets the win and the one-game lead over NYU, they should win another league championship with Case Western Reserve, Carnegie Mellon and Washington University left on the schedule.
CWRU gives up another goal in the last 10 minutes of the game. To be fair their go-ahead goal was either deflected by a defender or a howler by the keeper - not a good day for camera operators yesterday (follow the ball dammit!) - but the draw was deserved by both sides.
Saw a bit of the Brandeis Chicago game last night. Generally competitive game with both teams definitely "at it," although Chicago looks a little bit more poised. The Brandeis backs got caught in transition on the goal, and whoever the covering defender was could not back in time to clear it off the line before it crossed, the goal was actually given by the linesman. Chicago still created generally the better chances. Brandeis looks most vulnerable in transition and on set pieces. Big contrast to last year where shaky goalkeeping cost them big, this year Irwin has been really solid between the pipes. Not sure there was a lot he could've done about the goal. I saw Gordon Field from about 30,000 feet this morning – flying to DC for a conference – and hopefully that yields a better result tomorrow. That said, Buck knows I rate WashU and the Bears will be formidable opponents for a team that needs a big UAA win.
Elsewhere, have to say it is staggering that NYU is 3-0 in conference and Rochester is 0-3. The Yellowjackets would appear to be in big Pool C trouble, something that has only happened to them twice in the last 10 years – 2011 in 2015. Wouldn't have put money on that. Still not totally sold on the Violets yet but if they can spring a big result tomorrow I'll tip my cap to them.
And Deis scores twice in the first five minutes. Not a great start for WashU.
Figured any Brandeis win today would've been by one goal. Big surprise to see more than that, although getting two in the first 10 minutes certainly set the Judges on a pretty good trajectory, especially at home.
NYU hung with Chicago for 106 minutes before succumbing in the second overtime. That's a big win for the Maroons and probably wraps up the UAA title for them. Heartbreaker for the Violets. The big question is how they will respond.
Rochester got it stuttering UAA campaign going with a (literal) last second winner at Case. Will be interesting to see if they can kick on. Apple (or was it the bench?) got a yellow card along with the goal — I can 100% understand going over the top in the circumstances. Anecdotally, though, he seems to get a lot of yellows as a coach, but the Yellowjackets won't care a bit.
Pretty surprising to see Carnegie at .500 but they themselves did some good with a win over Emory. Goes to show there are no gimmes in the UAA.
The latest standings.
Chicago, 4-0, 8-1-4
New York University, 3-1, 6-5-1
Brandeis, 2-1-1, 8-3-4
Carnegie Mellon, 2-2, 6-6-1
Emory, 1-2-1, 7-5-2
Rochester, 1-3, 8-5
Washington U., 1-3, 6-5-1
Case Western Reserve, 0-2-2, 5-5-4
Chicago hosts the next three while NYU is on the road for the next two.
In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year. Entering league play, Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester and WashU were all in relatively good shape to get tournament bids with reasonably good records in the league. Chicago is a cinch, of course. Brandeis closes out with games at Springfield, at Emory, at Rochester, and home against NYU; I'd think they should be in good shape if they close out 3-1. Everyone else has at least five losses. NYU, Rochester, Emory and WashU might be able to qualify by winning out, but I think that will be a minimum requirement.
Quote from: blooter442 on October 20, 2019, 04:30:44 PM
Apple (or was it the bench?) got a yellow card along with the goal — I can 100% understand going over the top in the circumstances. Anecdotally, though, he seems to get a lot of yellows as a coach, but the Yellowjackets won't care a bit.
It was a bench card (actually given to the reserve GK) for unlawful entry on the field - the clock had gone to zero and everyone thought the game was over so they ran on to celebrate. As for Coach Apple getting a lot of yellows, i can't say i've seen one in the past few years - though i'll always remember the NYU Coach getting a straight red 2 years ago. #fireworks
Quote from: blooter442 on October 20, 2019, 04:30:44 PMGoes to show there are no gimmes in the UAA.
Amen to that!
Quote from: Buck O. on October 21, 2019, 12:56:58 PM
In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year. Entering league play, Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester and WashU were all in relatively good shape to get tournament bids with reasonably good records in the league. Chicago is a cinch, of course. Brandeis closes out with games at Springfield, at Emory, at Rochester, and home against NYU; I'd think they should be in good shape if they close out 3-1. Everyone else has at least five losses. NYU, Rochester, Emory and WashU might be able to qualify by winning out, but I think that will be a minimum requirement.
I think that's a big story so far - one year out of putting two teams in the Final Four, the league is looking like it will only get 2-3 in this year. Nervy times ahead...
Here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):
CURRENT STANDINGS:
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Brandeis
Mid 3: CMU, Emory, Rochester
Last 2: CWRU, WashU
Buck O.: 6 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
RollDeisRoll 6 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
Dr.Walk-On* 6 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory*
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
MaturinNYC: 3 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
A three-way tie for mediocrity - 6pts out of a possible 24! It's a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - who knows what the last 3 game days will bring? Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!
Quote from: MaturinNYC on October 23, 2019, 12:59:55 PM
It was a bench card (actually given to the reserve GK) for unlawful entry on the field - the clock had gone to zero and everyone thought the game was over so they ran on to celebrate. As for Coach Apple getting a lot of yellows, i can't say i've seen one in the past few years - though i'll always remember the NYU Coach getting a straight red 2 years ago. #fireworks
Fair enough, and maybe it isn't him — it's possible that what you just said (a yellow to the bench) may well be what I've seen when I said I've "seen him get others." What I am referring to is seeing a number of "Yellow Card on Rochester TEAM" in box scores which I generally take to be the coach. That said, could also be the assistant coach or the bench. Perhaps my perception is skewed because I remember UR getting successive "TEAM" cards — yellow then red — in a 2014 game with Carnegie where the Yellowjackets came from behind in the last 10 minutes to win 2-1 (after the red was issued). Not making a judgement about the program itself, everyone has their "days," but that seemed to weigh more heavily on the mind.
As for Apple himself, the one time I remember him being apoplectic was when he had a penalty appeal denied while his team was losing 2-1 at Brandeis back in 2016. Quite frankly after watching the video back I thought it was a penalty — so maybe he had a point! ;)
Did not see the NYU red — bet there's a story there!
Quote from: MaturinNYC on October 23, 2019, 01:14:39 PM
Here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):
CURRENT STANDINGS:
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Brandeis
Mid 3: CMU, Emory, Rochester
Last 2: CWRU, WashU
Buck O.: 6 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
RollDeisRoll 6 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
Dr.Walk-On* 6 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory*
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
MaturinNYC: 3 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
A three-way tie for mediocrity - 6pts out of a possible 24! It's a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - who knows what the last 3 game days will bring? Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!
I think I have nine points according to your standings. Then again, Wash and Rochester have the same record and WashU won the H2H matchup, so I'd put them in 6th and Rochester in 7th--which puts me back at six points.
As usual you are correct - you should show 9 pts. and the lead! (this is pegged to how uaasports.info presents standings - can't speak to the tiebreakers on that but it appears that WashU's H-to-H win doesn't play into it).
Buck O.: 9 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
No conference games this weekend but NYU, Rochester, WashU, Emory and Case all have non-conference games -- which have taken on an unexpected importance in this season where the relative weakness in non-conference games across the league looks to suppress the Pool C/At large invites. Good luck to all the UAA teams in action!
WashU lost to Wisconsin-Platteville (#177 in the Massey rankings) 2-1 today. For the second consecutive game, WashU gave up an early goal on a header that was softer than a marshmallow. After being outshot 3-0 over the first 25 minutes in a game that generally resembled pinball, WashU started to play some soccer and outshot UWP 15-2 over the next 60 minutes, tying the game at 1-1 in the 31st minute on a Will Sproule goal, almost taking the lead in the second half on a goal that was (correctly) called offside, and generating several good chances which far too often concluded in shots straight at the keeper. Unfortunately, the last five minutes belonged to UWP. The Pioneers' Jack Gentilli got behind the WashU defenders for a 1-on-1 in the 87th minute that WashU keeper Matt Martin was able to stop, but in the next minute, Gentilli got his revenge as Martin fell down trying to get to a corner kick, leaving an open goal for Gentilli to finish off the Bears.
With their fourth straight loss, WashU falls to 6-6-1 overall, and any remaining chance at a Pool C bid evaporated. This will be the third straight year that WashU has failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament, their longest stretch since they failed to qualify for six straight tournaments from 2000 through 2005.
In the next-to-last weekend of the season, Case and CMU will visit Chicago and WashU, while Emory and Rochester will host Brandeis and NYU. I may as well make some predictions, since they can't possibly be worse than my previous predictions.
In the games to be played in Chicago and St. Louis, Chicago might be able to lock up another UAA championship this weekend, and is a lock for the NCAA tournament, while the other teams have no shot at a Pool C bid, so their hopes rest on winning the league. CMU actually has a glimmer of hope, as a sweep of this weekend's games would put them no more than three points out of the UAA lead heading into the final weekend, with a H2H win over Chicago to boot. In theory, WashU still might be able to win the UAA title as well, if they win their last three games, Chicago loses its last three, and a bunch of other things happen. Also, in theory, you can flip a coin and have it come up edge, but I wouldn't count on it. Finally, Case has been mathematically eliminated and is playing out the string, hoping to avoid going from the Elite Eight one season to the UAA basement the next, as Emory did in 2017 and 2018.
Predictions for Friday: Chicago 2, Case 0; WashU 1, CMU 1
Predictions for Sunday: Chicago 3, CMU 1; WashU 1, Case 0
In the other set of games, Brandeis should be in good shape for a Pool C bid if they have a good weekend, while I suspect that NYU, Rochester and Emory will need to win out. If they were to do so, then NYU would have closed out the season on a 10-1 run after starting 0-4-1, with the sole loss in that stretch coming in the second OT against Chicago; moreover, they'd be the second-place finisher in the UAA with a 6-1 record, and even in a down year for the UAA, that would be impressive. I think that would be enough. I think that Rochester would have a somewhat lesser chance: other than Hobart, who have they beaten (although winning their last three would add some good wins)? Finally, I have trouble seeing Emory getting in even if they close with three straight wins; as I've written before, I think there's a glitch in Ken Massey's code that's giving them a higher rating (#62) than their record warrants.
Predictions for Friday: Brandeis 2, Emory 1; Rochester 0, NYU 0
Predictions for Sunday: NYU 1, Emory 1; Rochester 1, Brandeis 0
Friday:
Brandeis 2-0 Emory
Chicago 1-0 Case
Wash U 0-0 Carnegie
NYU 1-1 Rochester
Sunday:
Brandeis 1-0 Rochester
Chicago 2-0 Carnegie
Wash U 1-1 Case
NYU 1-0 Emory
Hello Internet Friends.
Sorry to have fired y'all up with my call on NYU/Chicago.
I'll venture into the fire again understanding that general parity across the league can make anyone, even me, seem prescient in the way that randomly calling "8 of diamonds" every time a deck of cards is cut, at some point will make you look like magic. So with a two-game weekend fanfare, here goes nothing:
"8 of Diamonds!"
Br 0:1 Emory
Chicago 2:0 CWR
WU 0:2 CMU
NYU 2:0 RU
Br 3:1 RU
Chicago 1:1 CMU
WU 1:2 CWR
NYU 2:1 Emory
Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1
Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1
Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3
Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.
Quote from: EastCoastSoccer on November 01, 2019, 03:13:11 PM
Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1
Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1
Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3
Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.
Pessimism is a poor anecdote for warding off disappointment (which I know quite well).
Not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if UR goes 3-0 or at least 2-0-1 in the last three. My gut tells me that they will and will end up in the tournament.
I'll jump in as well and post my coin-flips carefully reasoned predictions:
Predictions for Friday:
Chicago 3, Case 0 --- having seen both these teams live, i just don't see where Case gets on the board or even gets much possession in their offensive half, so over 90 minutes i think Chicago will finish 3.
WashU 0, CMU 1 --- CMU gets a late winner in this one i think, as their well-organized defense will limit WashU's weak offense (last in GF)
Brandeis 2, Emory 1 --- Emory always plays strong at home, but i just think the Judges get out with a win based on their clicking offense
Rochester 2, NYU 1 --- A year out from the Final Four, i just think this team knows they need to go 3-0 to have any hope of getting back to the tournament, and they are at home which should be enough to overcome an NYU team that is flying high recently, but has had struggles this year. It's interesting to note that both these teams have identical GF/GA so far (18 - 12, along with CMU).
Predictions for Sunday:
Chicago 3, CMU 1 --- Chicago brings the most dynamic attack in the league, and CMU withstands it for a while before falling.
WashU 1, Case 1 --- Both of these teams get chances, but on balance i would think Case either wins or gets by with a draw.
NYU 2, Emory 1 --- NYU gets the better of Emory in the first half, and withstands a late Eagles comeback to get out of Atlanta with 3pts.
Rochester 2, Brandeis 0 --- The 'Jackets use home field advantage to win out the weekend and keep hopes of a Pool C bid alive, finally getting a 2 goal cushion.
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 01, 2019, 04:22:07 PM
Quote from: EastCoastSoccer on November 01, 2019, 03:13:11 PM
Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1
Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1
Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3
Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.
Pessimism is a poor anecdote for warding off disappointment (which I know quite well).
Not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if UR goes 3-0 or at least 2-0-1 in the last three. My gut tells me that they will and will end up in the tournament.
Looks like you were right! What a demanding win over NYU tonight. I think this loss will likely eliminate NYU's hopes of making the tournament. They are a chippy team that really goes after players. 3 yellows tonight, two against Chicago, four against Wash U, two against Carnegie, and three against Case. It's tough watching such a technical team be so reckless and punkish with their challenges.
In other news, Chicago has officially clinched their fourth UAA Championship in a row. Any points the remainder of the season will make them outright Champions. No other team has done that in the history of the UAA. Carnegie, the one exception, won 5 straight from 2000-2004, but shared the crown with Chicago in 2001. What an accomplishment for the seniors Barovick, Corghi, and Johnson. What an accomplishment for their program.
Solid observations Re: NYU. Of all the "T's" I use to assess a side, "toughness" is perhaps the most important when sides are otherwise even. Toughness isn't just physical - mental toughness is just as critical. Stupid fouls in the defensive end - especially given the number of set piece goals being scored this year - and excessive cautions - lead to more losses than players want to acknowledge.
And a huge shout-out to "first year" coach Patrick Flinn. I place quotes around his tenure because he has been an integral part of UC's program for years. He recruited many of the key players that played for Coach Babst and it seems UC is in good hands going forward.
Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 02, 2019, 09:01:25 PM
Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.
Well, maybe. Does anyone really know if that's the tiebreaker?
Quote from: Buck O. on November 03, 2019, 11:43:05 AM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 02, 2019, 09:01:25 PM
Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.
Well, maybe. Does anyone really know if that's the tiebreaker?
It's tiebreaker #1 on the UAA Code of Conduct for soccer.
Regardless, UChicago made it moot with a 1-0 win vs. Carnegie Mellon to clinch outright. Two reds in the game, teams played 10v10 in second half.
Before this weekend, I thought that if Brandeis went 2-0-1 for the rest of the season they would be in a good position for Pool C. At 0-2 after this weekend, that possibility seems to have gone. Perhaps what is most disappointing is that both winners came immediately after other goals – Friday, it was the Brandeis equalizer; today it was the Rochester equalizer – and that to me signifies a lack of concentration. That's not to say the effort isn't there – I have been impressed with their work rate overall this year – but you earn your (proverbial) money (or perhaps your Pool C bid) by being awake in those big moments. They have fallen asleep twice.
Emory was a .500 team, but I always felt like going there was going to be difficult. Same with Rochester in terms of a tough road game: they were 0-3 in the UAA prior to the win against Case, but now they have won three in a row. I think they are not quite at the levels of their teams last year and the year before, but I would not be surprised to see them make a run – they are consistently opportunistic and tough, and I think their experience showed through in these last couple of weeks. I also think that Eisold is among the best defenders in the UAA, and has improved on his already very-good first-year campaign.
Soccer can be a funny game. Brandeis outshot Rochester 23-9 today and lost 2-1, the reverse of when Brandeis won the 2015 UAA title 2-1 at Rochester despite being outshot 8-5, but that year's Brandeis team was really good at just finding a way. This year's team hasn't quite been on the same level in that front – the Babson win was impressive, no doubt, and there were a couple of other good ones, but I didn't really see a statement win where they ground out a result against a very good team. Either way, what killed them were the ties against Wheaton and WNE. Those are the games you have to win. I do think that they will build on this year's campaign – DeNight did pretty well helping carry some of the scoring burden as a freshman – and I think there is some talent elsewhere in the ranks, but they have missed the X factor and leadership since Ocel graduated.
If they can learn from their experiences in big moments and further develop some of their young talent then I think they will improve next year. They're certainly not far away, but have come up just a little short.
After the penultimate weekend, here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):
CURRENT STANDINGS:
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Rochester
Mid 3: WashU, Emory, Brandeis
Last 2: CWRU, CMU
MaturinNYC: 15 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
Buck O.: 12 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
Dr.Walk-On* 12 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
RollDeisRoll 9 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
Outside of Chicago, it's still a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - everyone picked up points this weekend, and i went worst-to-first thanks mostly to my Yellowjackets picking up two huge wins. That leaves just 1 weekend left, but likely more surprises ahead.
Besides pride, three teams might still be playing for an NCAA Pool C (At Large) bid - Rochester, Emory and Brandeis; but given Brandeis's "lost weekend" and that Emory wasn't in the last Regional Rankings, both of those may have left it too late. NYU, despite a strong season in the conference, is dragged down by 6 losses and 2 ties and also wasn't regionally ranked, almost the same story at WashU. I'm sure BuckO. has the #'s crunched already and can enlighten all.
Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 03, 2019, 09:38:44 PM
After the penultimate weekend, here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):
CURRENT STANDINGS:
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Rochester
Mid 3: WashU, Emory, Brandeis
Last 2: CWRU, CMU
MaturinNYC: 15 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
Buck O.: 12 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
Dr.Walk-On* 12 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
RollDeisRoll 9 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
Outside of Chicago, it's still a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - everyone picked up points this weekend, and i went worst-to-first thanks mostly to my Yellowjackets picking up two huge wins. That leaves just 1 weekend left, but likely more surprises ahead.
Besides pride, three teams might still be playing for an NCAA Pool C (At Large) bid - Rochester, Emory and Brandeis; but given Brandeis's "lost weekend" and that Emory wasn't in the last Regional Rankings, both of those may have left it too late. NYU, despite a strong season in the conference, is dragged down by 6 losses and 2 ties and also wasn't regionally ranked, almost the same story at WashU. I'm sure BuckO. has the #'s crunched already and can enlighten all.
Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!
I know that you're just going off the listing on the UAA site, but for all we know they're listing tied teams in alphabetical order. WashU and Rochester are still tied, and since we've established that the first tiebreaker is H2H, which is in WashU's favor, I think WashU needs to be third while Rochester is fourth.
That would make my predictions look pretty good. I'd have 18 points, missing only on Case and NYU. But I don't think they're going to look as good a week from now. Unless WashU can take some points from their game in Chicago, they won't be able to stay in the top three.
Quote from: Buck O. on October 21, 2019, 12:56:58 PM
In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.
Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year. Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance. I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if. Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday. Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games. The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.
With that as a backdrop, I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game. And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday. Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.
Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)
So Emory would finish second in the league. I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league. Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament. In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.
Or Brandeis might have a shot. It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.
Quote from: Buck O. on November 04, 2019, 09:42:53 AM
Quote from: Buck O. on October 21, 2019, 12:56:58 PM
In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.
Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year. Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance. I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if. Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday. Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games. The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.
With that as a backdrop, I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game. And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday. Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.
Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)
So Emory would finish second in the league. I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league. Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament. In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.
Or Brandeis might have a shot. It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.
Conference WLT record, position in conference standings, and conference tournament finish are not included the primary or secondary selection criteria and I have no reason to suspect the selection committee is "unofficially" taking such things into consideration. In fact, evidence suggests they correctly do
not consider conference data. In each of the last two years that the Liberty League had just a 4-team tournament, a non-tournament team was selected for the NCAA tournament while the three teams that made the playoffs but did not win the AQ were left home. In 2015, 7th place RPI (12-4-3 / 3-3-2) got an at-large berth while #2 seed Hobart (13-3-2 / 5-1-2), #3 seed Skidmore (11-6-1 / 5-3-0) and #4 seed Union (10-4-4 / 3-2-3) did not. In 2016, the NCAA committee selected 5th place St. Lawrence (11-4-1 / 4-4-0) while #1 seed Hobart (9-5-4 / 6-1-1), #3 seed RPI (8-7-4 / 5-2-1), and #4 seed (Skidmore (7-7-4 / 4-2-2) were left out. In the UAA in 2016, 6th place WashU (10-4-2 / 2-3-2) and 7th place Rochester (9-4-3 / 2-3-2) were given at-large berths while 5th place NYU (9-7-2 / 3-4-0) was passed over.
I feel very confident saying that one team's chances are not helped or hurt by the how other teams' results affect the conference standings. Other teams' results will affect a team's chances because of how it impacts their SoS and Results vs. Ranked, but not because of the impact on conference standings.
Quote from: Buck O. on November 04, 2019, 09:42:53 AMSo Emory would finish second in the league. I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league. Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament. In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.
None of the UAA's virtues that you mentioned are among the stated criteria. From page 23 of the
NCAA Pre-Championships Manual:
QuoteSection 2•4 Selection Criteria
PRIMARY CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final ranking and the ranking preceding the final ranking.
Conference postseason contests are included; and
● Division III strength of schedule;
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP);
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
See Appendix D on page 47 for an explanation of the OWP and OOWP calculation.
Note: Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.
SECONDARY CRITERIA
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other opponents,
including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents;
● Division III non-conference strength of schedule.
Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season is applicable (i.e.,
end of season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.
Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by the soccer committee. In order to be
considered for selection for Pools B or C, an institution must play at least 70% of its competition against Division III in-region
opponents. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a criterion by the soccer committee
for selection purposes.
This Wednesday's NCAA weekly regional rankings will tell you whether or not Emory has a legit shot at a Pool C.
... aaaand I see that Flying Weasel has just beaten me to the punch, more or less. ;)
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 04, 2019, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: Buck O. on November 04, 2019, 09:42:53 AM
Quote from: Buck O. on October 21, 2019, 12:56:58 PM
In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.
Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year. Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance. I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if. Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday. Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games. The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.
With that as a backdrop, I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game. And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday. Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.
Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)
So Emory would finish second in the league. I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league. Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just one UAA team in the tournament. In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.
Or Brandeis might have a shot. It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.
Conference WLT record, position in conference standings, and conference tournament finish are not included the primary or secondary selection criteria and I have no reason to suspect the selection committee is "unofficially" taking such things into consideration. In fact, evidence suggests they correctly do not consider conference data. In each of the last two years that the Liberty League had just a 4-team tournament, a non-tournament team was selected for the NCAA tournament while the three teams that made the playoffs but did not win the AQ were left home. In 2015, 7th place RPI (12-4-3 / 3-3-2) got an at-large berth while #2 seed Hobart (13-3-2 / 5-1-2), #3 seed Skidmore (11-6-1 / 5-3-0) and #4 seed Union (10-4-4 / 3-2-3) did not. In 2016, the NCAA committee selected 5th place St. Lawrence (11-4-1 / 4-4-0) while #1 seed Hobart (9-5-4 / 6-1-1), #3 seed RPI (8-7-4 / 5-2-1), and #4 seed (Skidmore (7-7-4 / 4-2-2) were left out. In the UAA in 2016, 6th place WashU (10-4-2 / 2-3-2) and 7th place Rochester (9-4-3 / 2-3-2) were given at-large berths while 5th place NYU (9-7-2 / 3-4-0) was passed over.
I know that. (See the part of my post that I put in boldface.) Yet let me suggest that the scenarios you described are not quite the same situation that I was talking about.
Let's suppose that Emory beats Rochester, but that Rochester had done a little better in its non-conference schedule than it actually did, and that as a result, Rochester's overall resume seemed stronger. That's the situation that you've addressed, and you've demonstrated is that in such situations, the committee would opt for Rochester instead of Emory, and you've provided examples to back it up. And I agree, both that they would do so, and that they should do so.
But in this situation, I think that if Emory beats Rochester, Emory will have a better case for inclusion than Rochester will. So it's not a case of taking a less qualified team that happened to finish higher in the league standings. Instead, I was wondering whether finishing second in one of the strongest leagues in the country might prompt a re-evaluation of their record that would improve their chances (particularly because it isn't an artifact of an unbalanced schedule, which sometimes produces these results).
Having said that, at the end of the day, I suspect that Emory won't get in even if they beat Rochester.
Didn't mean to suggest you didn't know that conference data wasn't in the selection criteria, just wanted to establish that for any other readers and to provide context for the rest of my comments. However, you reply seems to reinforce the perception that you think that conference standing should and could effect how they are evaluated:
Quote from: Buck O. on November 04, 2019, 02:28:35 PM
Instead, I was wondering whether finishing second in one of the strongest leagues in the country might prompt a re-evaluation of their record that would improve their chances (particularly because it isn't an artifact of an unbalanced schedule, which sometimes produces these results).
Nothing (such as improved conference standing) is required to prompt a re-evaluation. Their record is being re-evaluated each week, regardless, when the new regional rankings are being developed. If that re-evaluation indicates they are one of the top 8 teams in the South Atlantic, they will be ranked that week. Emory has a very good SOS, but their results vs. ranked teams was 0-4-0 in last weeks evaluation to go along with a mediocre WLT record. Their win over Brandeis will improve their RvR to 1-4-0 (still not good for at-large selection) and their record is now 9-5-3. Of the team's ranked last week, Rowan is the most vulnerable due to also having so many blemishes, but Rowan has as good or slightly better SOS, and their RvR at 2-1-2 (with the loss to Ramapo being added) is still much better than Emory's 1-4-0. So it is difficult to see Emory overtaking any team ranked last week. And looking ahead to them potentially beating Rochester . . ., my first impression is that the best they could hope for is grabbing the last spot in the final rankings which would not seem near enough to get selected. But we shall see.
Quote from: Buck O. on November 04, 2019, 09:00:58 AM
I know that you're just going off the listing on the UAA site, but for all we know they're listing tied teams in alphabetical order. WashU and Rochester are still tied, and since we've established that the first tiebreaker is H2H, which is in WashU's favor, I think WashU needs to be third while Rochester is fourth.
I hear you, but i did spell out the 'rules of the contest' (and also tagged you) back at the start:
"Since this is all for fun, and since Buck O. can't be the only guy here doing number-crunching research, I awarded 3 points for each accurate prediction based on current standings (i.e. based soley on win % and as reported on the UAASports.info site)– "
So for consistency sake i think i have to keep the latest leaderboard as is - but i am happy to award you some loud clapping and the title of "H2H Top of the Leaderboard" for UAA Game Week #6!
Now that the 3rd Regional Rankings are out, the picture is clearer for UAA teams making the 2019 NCAA Tournament:
• Chicago - 2nd in the Central, in as the UAA Champ regardless of their result vs. WashU
• Rochester - 3rd in the East, a win tomorrow at Emory should punch their ticket, a draw or loss means nervy times on Monday
• Brandeis - 8th in New England, a win vs. NYU along with some help from others means they still have real hope in Boston
No other UAA teams made the 3rd weekly rankings, which usually means their seasons end this weekend. As will the prediction game, so here's my final go at that for the 2019 UAA season:
- Rochester 2 @ Emory 1: The extra gear of tourney motivation, plus a timely cold spell in Atlanta, means the Yellowjackets go home winners.
- WashU 0 @ Chicago 2: I think Chicago gets a 7th clean sheet of the UAA campaign, and finishes out the league play unblemished.
- NYU 1 @ Brandeis 2: Brandeis rights their game just in time and makes a strong case for a tournament ticket.
- Carnegie 0 @ Case 1: Case uses the home field advantage to avoid a complete UAA shutout and lay some groundwork for next year.
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 09, 2019, 08:49:29 AM
Now that the 3rd Regional Rankings are out, the picture is clearer for UAA teams making the 2019 NCAA Tournament:
• Chicago - 2nd in the Central, in as the UAA Champ regardless of their result vs. WashU
• Rochester - 3rd in the East, a win tomorrow at Emory should punch their ticket, a draw or loss means nervy times on Monday
• Brandeis - 8th in New England, a win vs. NYU along with some help from others means they still have real hope in Boston
No other UAA teams made the 3rd weekly rankings, which usually means their seasons end this weekend. As will the prediction game, so here's my final go at that for the 2019 UAA season:
- Rochester 2 @ Emory 1: The extra gear of tourney motivation, plus a timely cold spell in Atlanta, means the Yellowjackets go home winners.
- WashU 0 @ Chicago 2: I think Chicago gets a 7th clean sheet of the UAA campaign, and finishes out the league play unblemished.
- NYU 1 @ Brandeis 2: Brandeis rights their game just in time and makes a strong case for a tournament ticket.
- Carnegie 0 @ Case 1: Case uses the home field advantage to avoid a complete UAA shutout and lay some groundwork for next year.
My predictions are almost identical to yours. The only difference is that I'm predicting a 1-1 tie in Atlanta.
And that's a wrap on the 2019 UAA season - here's our final Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement as shown on uaasports.info):
FINAL STANDINGS:
Top 3: Chicago, Rochester, Brandeis
Mid 3: NYU, Emory, WashU
Last 2: CMU, CWRU
RollDeisRoll 15 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie
MaturinNYC: 9 PTS
Top 3: CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3: BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2: CAR, EMR
Buck O.: 9 PTS
Top three: Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three: Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two: CMU, NYU
Dr.Walk-On* 9 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU
Congrats RollDeisRoll - 15 pts. in a season with more twists than a Chubby Checker song is not bad at all! And tip of the hat to the 3-way tie for 2nd - silver medal ain't bad boys.
Good luck to all of the UAA teams who make it to the NCAA's!
Hey, for the record, Deis should be bolded! I got 18 points, since they beat NYU for third place. Not bad for a former player, looks like I still know the league a bit
UChicago rolled WashU today 3-0 and in the process became the first team to go 7-0 with no goals allowed in UAA history.
For an extremely young team, they've figured out their identity. The defense is locked in with great play makers who relish 1v1 encounters, and they are very opportunistic on offense. For a team that doesn't score a ton, opponents play scared against them and revert to a shell behind the ball a lot because their technical skill can burn you if you give them any space (see all 3 goals WashU gave up today). Giving UC room to roam is asking for disaster: they can counter in an instant and they want nothing more than to one-touch you to death with their passing.
Lich is the unsung hero of the team IMO. He never misses a slide tackle, he's fast enough to catch any forward, he plays physical and aggressive but with smarts, and he roams into the offensive half like Dani Alves. As the starting right back, you'll see him lead the counter as often as not.
Who knows how far the Maroons can go this year, as it only takes one mistake to end a season. But they're battle tested with all the tough teams and styles they've seen this year.
Having watched Lich play a couple times this season, you can tell he is a tenacious defender. Sniffs out a lot of passes and is one of the most aggressive players on the field. Very fun to watch. In addition, Johnson who looks to be playing more of a midfield roll now from the beginning of the season has been an anchor in front of their back line. This is going to be a back line that is hard to breakdown in the post season. To roll through the UAA without conceding a goal and only allowing 26 shots on goal in 7 games is pretty impressive. Can't wait to see what they do. Will be interesting to see just how many of these Chicago players are all conference. With Rookie of the year probably going to Gillespie, I also see Lich, Johnson, Holquist, Bloye and Katsimpalis picking up honors.
As for my Yellowjackets, a tie yesterday at Emory doesn't put them in a great spot to make the tournament. We will see what happens tomorrow. It's been a fun season watching the UAA. Even on a "down year" for the conference, the games were always competitive (except when playing Chicago). Congrats to the boys of the Windy City on quite the feat. 4 out right titles in 4 years for their seniors and finishing 7-0 without a single goal conceded ought to be a pretty good way to cap off a career.
Quote from: rolldeisroll on November 09, 2019, 09:48:26 PM
Hey, for the record, Deis should be bolded! I got 18 points, since they beat NYU for third place. Not bad for a former player, looks like I still know the league a bit
Absolutely - you were just two places away from a perfect prediction!
RollDeisRoll 18 PTS
Top 3:
Rochester,
Chicago,
Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3:
NYU, Case,
Wash UBottom (but still competitive): Emory,
Carnegie
Quote from: EastCoastSoccer on November 10, 2019, 12:02:26 PM
As for my Yellowjackets, a tie yesterday at Emory doesn't put them in a great spot to make the tournament. We will see what happens tomorrow. It's been a fun season watching the UAA. Even on a "down year" for the conference, the games were always competitive (except when playing Chicago).
I also had higher hopes for Rochester this season, but i am impressed that they were able to rescue a terrible position (0-3) to grab 2nd place (on tiebreakers). Character is what you are when the chips are down, and the chips were definitely down. I think they have more to do, and having watched every match i also think they haven't had their best game yet. I like their chances with the selection committee thanks to win %, RvR and SOS and - should Hobart not win the LL today - head to head. But it'll be an exciting selection show on Monday that's for sure.
Chicago's women are hosting a pod, which is why the male Maroons have to go on the road to Holland, MI next weekend. I didn't see that coming, because the U of C women were only ranked third in the region last week.
And Rochester sneaks in! Don't know how but they did it. Will definitely be a tough pod to get out of. Proud of my yellow jackets and for getting results to end out conference play.
In an almost bigger shock, Chicago is not hosting. How can this be? I see that their women's team is hosting, but didn't they both host in 2017? From reading other messages, I know that Hope is a tough field to play on. Will be interesting to see what the maroons can do.
Yes, the U of C did host both men and women in 2017. But the people who run the school's athletic department may have felt that they overextended themselves in doing so, and therefore decided to just put in one hosting bid rather than two -- and since this is the year for the women to get first-weekend precedence, the Maroons departmental braintrust may have thus elected not to put in a hosting bid for the men.
I can speak from firsthand experience in saying that it takes an awful lot of work to host a weekend's worth of D3 tournament soccer matches. Doubling that amount of work, plus juggling the logistics of having to satisfy twice as many teams and twice as many committee personnel may have proved to be too much for the U of C athletic department to handle. For a school that has the size and resources of the University of Chicago, the athletic department actually exists on a pretty modest scale.
Chicago is hosting two NCAA tournament pods this weekend as Women's Volleyball was awarded the first and second round after finishing 26-3 and among the best teams in the nation.
Didn't realize that. Thanks for pointing that out, WUPHF. All the more reason why the school's athletic department likely decided to forego putting in a bid for the men's soccer team to host.
Admittedly, I only know because the Washington University Women's Volleyball teams is traveling there for rounds 1-2.
And we do not know what circumstances led to Chicago hosting both men's and women's in 2017. I am sure that the NCAA tried to avoid it as they have successfully done in almost all cases ever since instituting the alternating men/women hosting priority. We don't know which participating schools did not apply to host (which is done well before the tournament and before any tournament berths have been won or awarded). Apparently they just couldn't find another workable solution in that instance, but don't expect a repeat of dual-hosting.
I could look it up, but I wonder if one of those Chicago pods two years ago was a Friday-Saturday because it had Calvin, Hope, Wheaton "no Sundays" in it and the other one was Saturday-Sunday because it didn't. That would only put 3 games on Saturday instead of 4.
Quote from: Caz Bombers on November 11, 2019, 06:52:25 PM
I could look it up, but I wonder if one of those Chicago pods two years ago was a Friday-Saturday because it had Calvin, Hope, Wheaton "no Sundays" in it and the other one was Saturday-Sunday because it didn't. That would only put 3 games on Saturday instead of 4.
No, that wasn't the case.
A friend of mine pointed out to me an hour or so ago that Chicago also hosts a football game on Saturday. A home football game in and of itself is a major undertaking for a D3 athletic department in terms of human resources. The U of C folks will be going crazy hosting that and two D3 tournament pods on the same day.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 04:57:41 PM
And we do not know what circumstances led to Chicago hosting both men's and women's in 2017. I am sure that the NCAA tried to avoid it as they have successfully done in almost all cases ever since instituting the alternating men/women hosting priority. We don't know which participating schools did not apply to host (which is done well before the tournament and before any tournament berths have been won or awarded). Apparently they just couldn't find another workable solution in that instance, but don't expect a repeat of dual-hosting.
Both teams hosted in 2017 because both teams were ranked #1 in the country for a good stretch of the season. The women play on the grass, the men on the turf. Very do-able if both surfaces are available, with the men playing at night.
But doing women on day on the grass, football on turf in the afternoon, men at night on the turf plus an eight-team volleyball regional ... not feasible.
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:58:54 PM
Chicago's women are hosting a pod, which is why the male Maroons have to go on the road to Holland, MI next weekend. I didn't see that coming, because the U of C women were only ranked third in the region last week.
The women's cluster among the top 3 of WashU, Wheaton and UChicago was quite close IMO. UC tied both Wheaton and WashU, and all 3 teams have been ranked in the top 15 basically all year. The gap between them and the rest of the region is vast, which is why all 3 schools are hosting opening weekend. They were rewarded for their SOS (all over .600 I believe) and quality wins.
OK, this is the UAA thread, so here is a UAA prediction:
1st & 2nd Rounds
Chicago has an early and somewhat familiar test in the shape of Dominican (IL), but they past the exam 2-0. The second round also brings a familiar foe, this time the Flying Dutchmen of Hope College who took them to 2OT back in September. This time the Maroons go behind early, but find the eventual winner in the 2nd half.
Rochester gets by a plucky Hanover squad by scoring 4 goals to their 2. Then in the second round they win a 1-0 nail-biter over host Kenyon, gaining the first shutout of the season over the Lords.
3rd Round & Quarterfinals
Chicago squares off against Luther (IA) and takes home an un-dramatic 3-0 win. Which leads them to a very dramatic game vs. Calvin in the Elite 8. Last year the Knights put the Maroons to the sword 3-0 in the Semi-finals, and they also claimed a 2-1 win in September. This time though Chicago has found a way to smother the Calvin attack, and also scores a goal in each half to walk away 2-1 winners.
Rochester draws a loaded Franklin & Marshall team in the Sweet 16, and while the Diplomats score first, it's the Yellowjackets who sting late, often and last, getting out of the match with a 3-2 win. That sets up a rematch with John Carroll, who won the first contest in September in Upstate NY 2-1. This time around it's Rochester who scores on an early counter and then stands up the Blue Streaks for the rest of the match, grabbing a 1-0 ticket back to the Final Four.
Semi-Finals
Chicago is slated against the top-seeded Blue Jays from Johns Hopkins, who have made the Final Four by knocking out John Jay, Ct. College, Eastern and the defending champion Tufts Univ. Both teams are battle-tested and feature dynamic attacking movement and solid defenses, but Chicago has the advantage of having played in the Semi-Final spotlight for a couple of years now, and that experience tells in a 3-1 win for the Maroons.
Rochester lines up against an old foe in Messiah, who ended the Yellowjackets season two years ago en-route to their 11th National Championship title. Last year it was Rochester who finished the Falcon's season. This year the meeting comes in the semi-finals in Greensboro. Messiah owns the early possession and lines up several promising attacks, but can't get a score. Rochester plays themselves into the game, getting into dangerous positions but also unable to finish. The game goes into overtime with 0-0 on the scoreboard, and nothing changes after twenty extra minutes. In the PK shootout that follows, it's the underdog Rochester that finds the winner.
Final
A year after both UAA teams were ousted in the Semi-Finals, the same two squads now meet in the Final. It's a first for both programs but the Maroons are favorites, having dispatched Rochester in each of their last four meetings. The Yellowjackets have an experienced Senior class who have helped bring their program to new heights, but they've never solved Chicago. Both teams know each other and, since both teams were also on the same field last year, neither are made nervous by the environment. Chicago controls the early possession but its Rochester that strikes first by finishing off an attack that began life as a turnover in midfield. Chicago finds the net late in the first half but the goal is flagged for offsides, and it's 1-0 'Jackets at halftime. Soon after the restart Chicago gets their equalizer after some patient build-up play moves the UofR defense. The game then opens up and both sides find opportunities, Chicago converting first before Rochester ties things back up on a corner kick. The weather is cold and flurries appear with 10 min to go in regulation, but both teams are comfortable playing in snow. Neither though are comfortable with sitting-in when a National Championship is on the line, and the match takes on an almost frantic basketball flow. The attacks come in waves, and it looks like the game is destined for OT when one wave breaks thru...(to be continued).
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 11, 2019, 11:46:49 PM
OK, this is the UAA thread, so here is a UAA prediction:
1st & 2nd Rounds
Chicago has an early and somewhat familiar test in the shape of Dominican (IL), but they past the exam 2-0. The second round also brings a familiar foe, this time the Flying Dutchmen of Hope College who took them to 2OT back in September. This time the Maroons go behind early, but find the eventual winner in the 2nd half.
Rochester gets by a plucky Hanover squad by scoring 4 goals to their 2. Then in the second round they win a 1-0 nail-biter over host Kenyon, gaining the first shutout of the season over the Lords.
3rd Round & Quarterfinals
Chicago squares off against Luther (IA) and takes home an un-dramatic 3-0 win. Which leads them to a very dramatic game vs. Calvin in the Elite 8. Last year the Knights put the Maroons to the sword 3-0 in the Semi-finals, and they also claimed a 2-1 win in September. This time though Chicago has found a way to smother the Calvin attack, and also scores a goal in each half to walk away 2-1 winners.
Rochester draws a loaded Franklin & Marshall team in the Sweet 16, and while the Diplomats score first, it's the Yellowjackets who sting late, often and last, getting out of the match with a 3-2 win. That sets up a rematch with John Carroll, who won the first contest in September in Upstate NY 2-1. This time around it's Rochester who scores on an early counter and then stands up the Blue Streaks for the rest of the match, grabbing a 1-0 ticket back to the Final Four.
Semi-Finals
Chicago is slated against the top-seeded Blue Jays from Johns Hopkins, who have made the Final Four by knocking out John Jay, Ct. College, Eastern and the defending champion Tufts Univ. Both teams are battle-tested and feature dynamic attacking movement and solid defenses, but Chicago has the advantage of having played in the Semi-Final spotlight for a couple of years now, and that experience tells in a 3-1 win for the Maroons.
Rochester lines up against an old foe in Messiah, who ended the Yellowjackets season two years ago en-route to their 11th National Championship title. Last year it was Rochester who finished the Falcon's season. This year the meeting comes in the semi-finals in Greensboro. Messiah owns the early possession and lines up several promising attacks, but can't get a score. Rochester plays themselves into the game, getting into dangerous positions but also unable to finish. The game goes into overtime with 0-0 on the scoreboard, and nothing changes after twenty extra minutes. In the PK shootout that follows, it's the underdog Rochester that finds the winner.
Final
A year after both UAA teams were ousted in the Semi-Finals, the same two squads now meet in the Final. It's a first for both programs but the Maroons are favorites, having dispatched Rochester in each of their last four meetings. The Yellowjackets have an experienced Senior class who have helped bring their program to new heights, but they've never solved Chicago. Both teams know each other and, since both teams were also on the same field last year, neither are made nervous by the environment. Chicago controls the early possession but its Rochester that strikes first by finishing off an attack that began life as a turnover in midfield. Chicago finds the net late in the first half but the goal is flagged for offsides, and it's 1-0 'Jackets at halftime. Soon after the restart Chicago gets their equalizer after some patient build-up play moves the UofR defense. The game then opens up and both sides find opportunities, Chicago converting first before Rochester ties things back up on a corner kick. The weather is cold and flurries appear with 10 min to go in regulation, but both teams are comfortable playing in snow. Neither though are comfortable with sitting-in when a National Championship is on the line, and the match takes on an almost frantic basketball flow. The attacks come in waves, and it looks like the game is destined for OT when one wave breaks thru...(to be continued).
Wish I had your level of optimism! ;) That said, would love to see an all-UAA final.
Quote from: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 09:18:33 AM
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 11, 2019, 11:46:49 PM
OK, this is the UAA thread, so here is a UAA prediction:
1st & 2nd Rounds
Chicago has an early and somewhat familiar test in the shape of Dominican (IL), but they past the exam 2-0. The second round also brings a familiar foe, this time the Flying Dutchmen of Hope College who took them to 2OT back in September. This time the Maroons go behind early, but find the eventual winner in the 2nd half.
Rochester gets by a plucky Hanover squad by scoring 4 goals to their 2. Then in the second round they win a 1-0 nail-biter over host Kenyon, gaining the first shutout of the season over the Lords.
3rd Round & Quarterfinals
Chicago squares off against Luther (IA) and takes home an un-dramatic 3-0 win. Which leads them to a very dramatic game vs. Calvin in the Elite 8. Last year the Knights put the Maroons to the sword 3-0 in the Semi-finals, and they also claimed a 2-1 win in September. This time though Chicago has found a way to smother the Calvin attack, and also scores a goal in each half to walk away 2-1 winners.
Rochester draws a loaded Franklin & Marshall team in the Sweet 16, and while the Diplomats score first, it's the Yellowjackets who sting late, often and last, getting out of the match with a 3-2 win. That sets up a rematch with John Carroll, who won the first contest in September in Upstate NY 2-1. This time around it's Rochester who scores on an early counter and then stands up the Blue Streaks for the rest of the match, grabbing a 1-0 ticket back to the Final Four.
Semi-Finals
Chicago is slated against the top-seeded Blue Jays from Johns Hopkins, who have made the Final Four by knocking out John Jay, Ct. College, Eastern and the defending champion Tufts Univ. Both teams are battle-tested and feature dynamic attacking movement and solid defenses, but Chicago has the advantage of having played in the Semi-Final spotlight for a couple of years now, and that experience tells in a 3-1 win for the Maroons.
Rochester lines up against an old foe in Messiah, who ended the Yellowjackets season two years ago en-route to their 11th National Championship title. Last year it was Rochester who finished the Falcon's season. This year the meeting comes in the semi-finals in Greensboro. Messiah owns the early possession and lines up several promising attacks, but can't get a score. Rochester plays themselves into the game, getting into dangerous positions but also unable to finish. The game goes into overtime with 0-0 on the scoreboard, and nothing changes after twenty extra minutes. In the PK shootout that follows, it's the underdog Rochester that finds the winner.
Final
A year after both UAA teams were ousted in the Semi-Finals, the same two squads now meet in the Final. It's a first for both programs but the Maroons are favorites, having dispatched Rochester in each of their last four meetings. The Yellowjackets have an experienced Senior class who have helped bring their program to new heights, but they've never solved Chicago. Both teams know each other and, since both teams were also on the same field last year, neither are made nervous by the environment. Chicago controls the early possession but its Rochester that strikes first by finishing off an attack that began life as a turnover in midfield. Chicago finds the net late in the first half but the goal is flagged for offsides, and it's 1-0 'Jackets at halftime. Soon after the restart Chicago gets their equalizer after some patient build-up play moves the UofR defense. The game then opens up and both sides find opportunities, Chicago converting first before Rochester ties things back up on a corner kick. The weather is cold and flurries appear with 10 min to go in regulation, but both teams are comfortable playing in snow. Neither though are comfortable with sitting-in when a National Championship is on the line, and the match takes on an almost frantic basketball flow. The attacks come in waves, and it looks like the game is destined for OT when one wave breaks thru...(to be continued).
Wish I had your level of optimism! ;) That said, would love to see an all-UAA final.
Based upon two years of data, which is all that we need to reach indisputable conclusions, we know that the Final Four must include Chicago and one other UAA team. In the past, the challenge has been in choosing which of the non-Chicago UAA teams in the Elite Eight will advance to the Final Four. This year, the committee made it easy on us by inviting only two UAA teams to the tournament. So it has to be Chicago and Rochester in the Final Four, right?
And there goes that...the dream dies in the 2nd round as OWU (NCAC) bounces Chicago 3-1. The Yellowjackets, now the last UAA team in the tournament this season, face another NCAC team as they take on host Kenyon tomorrow in a second round matchup.
The UAA season is now over, as Rochester also falls in the second round, 2-1 at Kenyon. It was great to see the UofR play in a new formation Sunday that enabled more build-up play and empowered the attack, and it worked - almost. The Yellowjackets went ahead late in the first half after a sustained period of pressure, and while Kenyon brought some impressive pressure of their own (aided by fresh legs - they used 22 players in the contest!) the UofR team defense held the shutout until Kenyon found an equalizer with 14 minutes to play. The hosts then piled on the attack but couldn't get a winner in regulation. In the OT period Rochester found a new gear and again built up their attacks - earning several free kicks and a pair of corners, but just not able to find that lucky bounce in the final 1/3. The feeling though was that the Yellowjackets had a handle on things and their experienced lineup would eventually get it - until only the second Kenyon possession deep in Rochester territory led to an unjust handball call (for more on that see my post in The Big Dance thread) and a golden goal for Kenyon from the penalty spot. It's a funny old game.
An "off" year for the UAA certainly, but 2019 was still a highly entertaining one to be a fan of this league. I'd like to salute and give thanks to all of the programs, their staff and especially their players - well done all, keep up the good work! I've been a 'parent fan' now for four years, and while i've loved every minute of that i'm now looking forward to a new chapter as a 'regular fan'. See you in the Spring!
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 18, 2019, 06:05:51 PM
The UAA season is now over, as Rochester also falls in the second round, 2-1 at Kenyon. It was great to see the UofR play in a new formation Sunday that enabled more build-up play and empowered the attack, and it worked - almost. The Yellowjackets went ahead late in the first half after a sustained period of pressure, and while Kenyon brought some impressive pressure of their own (aided by fresh legs - they used 22 players in the contest!) the UofR team defense held the shutout until Kenyon found an equalizer with 14 minutes to play. The hosts then piled on the attack but couldn't get a winner in regulation. In the OT period Rochester found a new gear and again built up their attacks - earning several free kicks and a pair of corners, but just not able to find that lucky bounce in the final 1/3. The feeling though was that the Yellowjackets had a handle on things and their experienced lineup would eventually get it - until only the second Kenyon possession deep in Rochester territory led to an unjust handball call (for more on that see my post in The Big Dance thread) and a golden goal for Kenyon from the penalty spot. It's a funny old game.
An "off" year for the UAA certainly, but 2019 was still a highly entertaining one to be a fan of this league. I'd like to salute and give thanks to all of the programs, their staff and especially their players - well done all, keep up the good work! I've been a 'parent fan' now for four years, and while i've loved every minute of that i'm now looking forward to a new chapter as a 'regular fan'. See you in the Spring!
Nice job here. Very gracious under the circumstances. We recall the 1st half differently. I don't recall sustained pressure from UR and the goal imo was not a function of sustained pressure. Our announcer was commenting in the 1st half that UR could not get much of anything going offensively while gushing about how fabulous UR was on defense.
UR needed to score in the OT sequence you have noted. Even aside from the call, my biased bet is that Kenyon was then going to sustain a flurry of pressure, and except for the one sequence you have noted, Kenyon was close to scoring several times after they leveled and realized they were still very much in the game.
Anyway, Meliora! I spent a lot of time on the River Campus.
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 18, 2019, 06:35:30 PM
We recall the 1st half differently. I don't recall sustained pressure from UR and the goal imo was not a function of sustained pressure.
Memory, like the game, is funny! My recollection was that we'd had a nice period of pressure starting about 5 min. before the goal, then after scoring that Kenyon had all the ball. But i just took a look at the video, and we only had one nice run at the 34 min. mark (that ended with Aidan Miller pulling his shot an inch wide of the near-post). Before and immediately after that the ball was with Kenyon - albeit not in dangerous areas. Then the goal came at the 38 min. mark (off the head of Will Eisold, our MOTM at both ends of the field), and Rochester's sustained period of pressure was actually afterwards. You are right, the goal wasn't the result of a sustained push, it preceded it.
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 18, 2019, 06:35:30 PM
Even aside from the call, my biased bet is that Kenyon was then going to sustain a flurry of pressure...
And that's the bitter pill - because of that one referring mistake all we're left with is our "biased feelings" that our side would've won it, instead of the sublime reveal of what the game would've delivered. I respect why you would feel confident of a clear Kenyon victory based on that 2nd half push; but if you take a look at the replay of the OT period (which, chastened by my first half error, i did - and this time, whew, it does sync with my memory) you would no doubt understand why i feel equally confident that Rochester would've won. And of course neither of us can ever really know, and that's a shame - though very real for me, and very academic for you!
I wish Kenyon well next weekend. I know that players from our side felt that the game on the field was fine, hard played on both sides but with no hard feelings or animosity between the players, mutual respect and admiration. And that at least is a consolation. If you make it to Greensboro, get the affogatto dessert at Print Works Bistro!
Quote from: MaturinNYC on November 19, 2019, 12:14:50 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 18, 2019, 06:35:30 PM
We recall the 1st half differently. I don't recall sustained pressure from UR and the goal imo was not a function of sustained pressure.
Memory, like the game, is funny! My recollection was that we'd had a nice period of pressure starting about 5 min. before the goal, then after scoring that Kenyon had all the ball. But i just took a look at the video, and we only had one nice run at the 34 min. mark (that ended with Aidan Miller pulling his shot an inch wide of the near-post). Before and immediately after that the ball was with Kenyon - albeit not in dangerous areas. Then the goal came at the 38 min. mark (off the head of Will Eisold, our MOTM at both ends of the field), and Rochester's sustained period of pressure was actually afterwards. You are right, the goal wasn't the result of a sustained push, it preceded it.
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 18, 2019, 06:35:30 PM
Even aside from the call, my biased bet is that Kenyon was then going to sustain a flurry of pressure...
And that's the bitter pill - because of that one referring mistake all we're left with is our "biased feelings" that our side would've won it, instead of the sublime reveal of what the game would've delivered. I respect why you would feel confident of a clear Kenyon victory based on that 2nd half push; but if you take a look at the replay of the OT period (which, chastened by my first half error, i did - and this time, whew, it does sync with my memory) you would no doubt understand why i feel equally confident that Rochester would've won. And of course neither of us can ever really know, and that's a shame - though very real for me, and very academic for you!
I wish Kenyon well next weekend. I know that players from our side felt that the game on the field was fine, hard played on both sides but with no hard feelings or animosity between the players, mutual respect and admiration. And that at least is a consolation. If you make it to Greensboro, get the affogatto dessert at Print Works Bistro!
M-NYC, I just want to clarify what I thought. Who I thought was gonna win fluctuated during the match. I knew going in that Rochester was going to be an extremely tough out, with an experienced, talented and very disciplined squad coming off a Final Four that would be very tough to break down. I probably thought the game was a 50/50 with Kenyon maybe getting a small edge because of hosting (although I also thought that any advantage might be countered by Kenyon's inexperience). Kenyon was controlling play for much of the 1st half imo BUT they weren't getting any good scoring chances as our announcer stated multiple times, with multiple references to how good UR's back line was. After UR scored, then I spent the next 35+ minutes of game time knowing there was a very good chance Rochester would prevail although I also thought the Lords would eventually at least get a few decent cracks at leveling. I definitely thought UR had a very good chance to see out the last 14-15 minutes of regulation and get the win. After Kenyon leveled, then I thought momentum shifted and I felt better about our chances. We almost got one but didn't. Anything can happen in OT so I wasn't confident but I thought we were going into OT feeling pretty good. THEN, UR got Kenyon pinned in, and during that time, I was almost positive UR was gonna score and win. So during that sequence I was NOT confident at all. Once Kenyon escaped that sequence and was still alive that's when I thought Kenyon would likely enjoy a stretch of pressure again on UR. And as you said, we'll never know. Kenyon might have scored off a corner right after the Eisold play, or UR could have turned the tables again, or perhaps more likely we were headed to PKs.
Doubt I would go to Greensboro, as, gulp, my last season with a player on the team was 2014, and "our' Kenyon career ended on that same field in bitter, bitter disappointment as the hosting Lords had a couple of key injuries and also failed to show up, and were outplayed by a very good and confident OWU team in the Sweet 16. Lots of tears and a long, long drive home. Four years spent by a very large senior class working towards a dream season and I think a #2 ranking at the time (just behind Messiah), and then the abrupt, painful, no-way-around-this ending.
That said, the person who brought me into this planet (aka Mom) lives in Greensboro, so who knows.
P.S. BTW, Kenyon and Rochester are close enough that they should play regularly or semi-regularly. Kenyon played CMU several years in a row and Rochester isn't that much further away. Let's get Kenyon up to Fauver Stadium.