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I am certainly ready to see some soccer.  After looking at the D-3 Sooccer "this is not a poll"  I was surprised to see Messiah at #2.  While I am sure the Falcons will be fine, I think they have some work to do before I can imagine them that high.

As I wandered down through the "not a poll" list and looked at schedules, I was struck by how few teams jumped off the deep end to start to season.  It seems to me the toughest schedules early on belong to Hopkins, William Smith and Wheaton (Ill.).  I understand that Nescac and the UAA have their own issues to deal with but other schools seem to have softened their early schedules.  This will sort it self out as the seaon goes on but it surprised me.

So..let's talk.

I picked Christopher Newport last year to go all the way and they came close. I thought they were the most athletic team with Washington U. right behind them. The Williams team was not as athletic as they had been in the past, but they were the smartest and most disciplined team I have seen over the last several years, shutting down passing lanes, keeping shape and just playing the game simple.

That being said I find it hard to go against Williams repeating with the number of players returning, I keep thinking they won't be as strong, but every year they come back to the Finals.
I was tempted to pick Christopher Newport again, but the one returning starter loss is a huge one. Washington U. lost some really outstanding, athletic seniors. I don't know that it will be a rebuild, but that loss of talent will cause some time for them to sort things out. TCNJ is a team every year I think they might breakthrough, maybe this is the year. I always enjoy watching Messiah and they return enough players they should be in the mix.

It was a weird year for the UAA last year as it looked like they would have more teams going deeper. I just never felt Chicago found the right chemistry maybe this will be a bounce back year.  Here's hoping for any CCIW team to make a deep run, the usual suspects Wheaton and IWU return a lot of players.

I noticed the same thing about the softening of some team's schedules. I guess the worry of Strength of Schedule does not concern them as much as in the past.

I haven't kept up with the D3 scene as much as I have the past few years but I have some observations from what I have seen up to this point.

Some of these are in response to what cciw83 wrote here:

Quote from: cciw83 on August 26, 2019, 05:03:40 PM

Washington U. lost some really outstanding, athletic seniors. I don't know that it will be a rebuild, but that loss of talent will cause some time for them to sort things out.

It was a weird year for the UAA last year as it looked like they would have more teams going deeper. I just never felt Chicago found the right chemistry maybe this will be a bounce back year.  Here's hoping for any CCIW team to make a deep run, the usual suspects Wheaton and IWU return a lot of players.

Wheaton - Wheaton is Wheaton. They are well-coached and have a lot of athletes. Sometimes they don't always play the most attractive soccer because they play very direct sometimes but it seems to work for them. They always put up a lot of shots in every game and they defend well. I'm always amazed at how many more shots Wheaton puts up compared to their opponents. Up to this point in the season Wheaton has 130 shots compared to 32 for the opposition. They've outscored their opponents 14-2. Something tells me that Pete Felske, the Wheaton coach, isn't pleased that the opposition has managed to put up 32 shots. 

In addition to being a very good coach, Felske is an excellent recruiter. He just keeps bringing in really good players. Recruiting is the life blood of any college team but as most know, with D3 soccer it is a bit more challenging and is vital. Those D3 programs that are able to snare players that could have potentially played at a higher level, D1 or whatever, are helping themselves tremendously. Not being a Christian, I always wondered how Felske was able to find the athletes that were OK with what a Christian school like Wheaton demanded. It's a dry campus, chapel is mandatory, there are religious study requirements, etc. However, Wheaton is an excellent academic school. In my previously narrow view I have thought that aspect of Wheaton would be a deterrent to get student-athletes but it must be an advantage.

We will get an idea of how good Wheaton is when they play at Wash U tomorrow, September 18, and at Chicago on September 24. Ii expect Wheaton to win the CCIW and I expect them to make a deep run in the tournament. They have Elite 8 and possibly Final 4 potential.

Washington University - As was stated, Wash U lost a lot of really good seniors from last year's team. There are still some solid players returning. There are some solid defenders as well as a potential All-American keeper. Jim Conlon is an excellent coach and I expect him to do well with what he has. I was a little surprised with the loss to St. Thomas and the draw with Hope but I would look for Wash U to make a good run in the tournament. Telling will be the game on September 18 vs Wheaton.

Chicago - Many are overlooking Chicago this year. They are a very deep team with a lot of talent. There is not a huge talent drop off when UC gets into the bench and in the OT games that may arise in the post- season, fresh legs can mean a lot. In their game against Illinois Wesleyan this past Saturday they managed 25 shots to IWU's 4. They are also very good at set plays and scored the bulk of their 6 goals vs IWU on set plays.  Amy Reifert is an excellent coach and recruiter. Of course, with U of Chicago being one of the finest academic institutions anywhere, she gets a lot of help in her recruiting efforts. Chicago vs Wheaton on September 24 will be a battle.

Illinois Wesleyan - IWU has nearly played themselves out of an automatic post-season bid and have put themselves into a position that they'll need to win the CCIW tournament to qualify for the NCAA. That is not a common occurrence for the Titans. It appears that IWU has many talented players but they don't appear to be well-coached. Dave Barrett was at IWU for many years and was a relentless recruiter that always managed to get talented players. I've heard that the new coach does not make much of an effort on the recruiting front and is relying on Barrett's recruits. The well will eventually dry up. The Titans have lost games this year that could have been won with better coaching.

I don't normally like to criticize coaching but it appears that the new coach, now in his 2nd year, may be in over his head. In the observations that I've made, he does not seem to make in-game adjustments well. IWU's biggest problems are that they can't hold possession, can't finish chances, and give up way too many goals on set pieces. Some of these are coaching issues. Possession is lost a lot due to not playing the ball out of the back and a lack of patience. IWU will almost always punt or kick the ball from the keeper into the midfield and the midfield usually turns it over. The defense is constantly under pressure because of this. The lack of finishing also greatly decreases possession because there appears to be no patience in building up an attack. Low percentage shots are taken from all over the field with the end result being a loss of possession. It is apparent that work needs to be done when marking on set pieces. Lastly, from what I saw in the Chicago game, IWU would not pressure UC high at all. When the Maroons' keeper had the ball there was no pressure on her. UC's defenders were easily dribbling the ball into their attacking 1/2 and even the attacking 1/3 and IWU was just letting them do it. Again, this is a coaching issue. It appears that IWU made a poor hire and it is hard to believe that he was the best available. Hopefully they'll rebound but it's not looking good. The coach came from a successful Lynchburg program so this is somewhat surprising. 

A few other quick notes because I'll probably run out of characters soon.

Otterbein - there are a lot of solid players at Ottebein but they had a surprising 5-4 loss vs Kenyon despite outshooting them by a wide margin. I'll pick Otterbein to win the OAC over Ohio Northern.

Ohio Northern - have tested themselves early and have done fairly well. They lost narrowly to Wheaton, 2-1, and managed to keep them under 20 shots. They've also beaten Carnegie Mellon and draw with Hope. Surprising, though, was a draw with Denison. They'll be in contention with Otterbein for the OAC title.

The NCAC (North Coast Athletic Conference) will only get one bid to the NCAA and that will be to the team that wins the tournament. There does not appear to be any one team that is that strong in the conference this year.

Quote from: PlaySimple on September 17, 2019, 12:46:21 PM
We will get an idea of how good Wheaton is when they play at Wash U tomorrow, September 18, and at Chicago on September 24.

I expect Wheaton to win the CCIW and I expect them to make a deep run in the tournament. They have Elite 8 and possibly Final 4 potential.

Washington University was in full control this afternoon with a lull here and there.  They are still finding an offensive identity, but this game could have been a 4-1 or 5-1 or more with a shots off the pipes and a point blank shot that sailed right.

Quote from: WUPHF on September 19, 2019, 12:00:44 AM


Washington University was in full control this afternoon with a lull here and there.  They are still finding an offensive identity, but this game could have been a 4-1 or 5-1 or more with a shots off the pipes and a point blank shot that sailed right.

I saw that result. While I wasn't entirely surprised that Wash U won, I was surprised with how many more shots they put up compared to Wheaton. The final tally was 25 shots for Wash U vs 4 for Wheaton. Funny that in my post above I made this comment: "I'm always amazed at how many more shots Wheaton puts up compared to their opponents."

After looking at the stats it was also surprising that it took the Bears 2 OT periods to put the winner in. It seems as if some work on finishing is needed. Thirteen of those 25 shots were on frame so either Wheaton has a really good keeper or those shots were hit directly to her.

I was wondering how Gabbie Cesarone is doing this year. I saw her play last year as a freshman and thought that she played with a lot more poise than a typical frosh. I was impressed. I had seen her play in club ball in high school with the Eclipse and could see that she would be good. She is one of those D3 players that could have played at the D1 level. Passing up a Wash U education is a hard thing to do, though.

The junior keeper, Emma Greenfield, is also really solid but due to the usually stout defense, she does not often get fully tested.

I'm looking forward to the Bears' game vs Emory next month. Emory looks they may have the pieces to contend in the UAA this season.

It is an interesting contrast to last season.  At this point in the season, Washington University had scored 25 goals. They would finish the season with 62 goals and 241 shorts on goal.

As for Gabbie Cesarone, you might find this worth the read: https://www.studlife.com/sports/2019/09/04/the-unbreakable-defense-chapter-two-gabbie-cesarone/

Quote from: WUPHF on September 19, 2019, 11:25:45 PM

As for Gabbie Cesarone, you might find this worth the read: https://www.studlife.com/sports/2019/09/04/the-unbreakable-defense-chapter-two-gabbie-cesarone/

Thank you for the link.

You probably saw the other article on the defense. It primarily mentions Emma Greenfield but the contrast of last year's team with this team is interesting. I noticed it when I was on the site that you posted the link of. If not, here is that article: https://www.studlife.com/sports/2019/08/29/greenfield-and-the-unbreakable-defense-of-womens-soccer/

I found this quote interesting because WashU and Wheaton just played: "The defenders clearly kept the goalie's workload manageable. In eight of the Bears' 22 games, Greenfield did not face any shots on goal. However, the keeper came up big when she had to, recording two saves in a 2-1 win against Emory, four saves in a 2-0 victory over the University of Chicago, and three saves in a nail-biter versus Wheaton in the Elite Eight."

In considering things, Wheaton picked up more players from last year and WashU lost some. It seems WashU's net losses were greater than Wheaton's. While the margin was one goal in both games, I really thought that the shots would be closer. I compared the shots between the two matches and WashU put up less last year in the Elite 8 game. In that game the Bears had 17 shots vs 25 this past week. Wheaton had one less shot this past week.

One thing I've noticed about Wheaton and the high number of shots that they put up, the game vs WashU notwithstanding, is that many of the shots are not on frame. This year is actually better for them in that regard but higher percentage shots would definitely be better. I made the same comment about IWU above. Taking random/early shots, without a lot of support, greatly decreases possession. Too many teams lack patience in this regard. I notice it in D1 womens's soccer also. It's not unique to D3 soccer. Also, not being sexist, the women do it more than the men it seems.

+1 Thanks for the interesting posts!  Washington University vs Wheaton Men's Soccer is a few minutes away.  Wheaton proves to be a big game for the second time this week.

Thanks to the D-3 soccer folks for interesting and informative updates on the women's games.  Halfway through the season and sadly, I haven't seen a game in person yet.  I have been able to watch a good bit on line and I haven't seen any team that looked like a definate "wow" yet.  Some good stuff but not "wow".

I have been surprised (and there is an interesting discussion about this on the Men's Nescac thread) by how much of the game is being played in the air.  I wonder if any others have noticed this.   

Discnerd's top 25 (https://discnerd.wordpress.com/2019/09/30/d3-soccer-for-september-30-2019/)

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Pomona-Pitzer	13.9338	SCIAC
2	Messiah	12.1562	MACC
3	Arcadia	11.8873	MACC
4	Gettysburg	11.1246	CC
5	MIT	8.96565	NEWMAC
6	Wheaton (Ill.)	8.96412	CCIW
7	William Smith	8.8545	LL
8	TCNJ	8.65029	NJAC
9	Johns Hopkins	8.62507	CC
10	Centre	8.18013	SAA
11	Christopher Newport	8.07453	CAC
12	Case Western Reserve	7.29768	UAA
13	Washington U.	7.25937	UAA
14	Chicago	7.22526	UAA
15	Geneseo State	6.42744	SUNYAC
16	Washington and Lee	5.78351	ODAC
17	Middlebury	5.32544	NESCAC
18	Randolph-Macon	5.24855	ODAC
19	Stevens	5.1403	MACF
20	McDaniel	4.84154	CC
21	Chapman	4.75734	SCIAC
22	Tufts	4.62963	NESCAC
23	Rochester	4.62739	UAA
24	Swarthmore	4.28721	CC
25	Dickinson	4.27038	CC

Rating is found by having a large number of voters voting for their first place team.  Have each voter look at the outcome of a randomly chosen game their team has played.  They switch to the other team with a probability related to the margin of victory of the game.  Do that several thousand times for all voters and the distribution of voters settles to a steady state.  Rating is normalized so that each team starts with one voter.

Full rankings are linked to from the post that is linked in the title.

Discnerd's Top 25 (no blog post yet)

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Pomona-Pitzer	13.6779	SCIAC
2	Messiah	12.1952	MACC
3	Christopher Newport	10.4828	CAC
4	Arcadia	10.1628	MACC
5	Gettysburg	9.50914	CC
6	MIT	9.36312	NEWMAC
7	William Smith	8.75069	LL
8	Washington U.	8.7383	UAA
9	Wheaton (Ill.)	8.15961	CCIW
10	TCNJ	7.91765	NJAC
11	Johns Hopkins	7.54119	CC
12	Chicago	6.8022	UAA
13	Tufts	6.3024	NESCAC
14	Centre	6.27511	SAA
15	Dickinson	5.77091	CC
16	Geneseo State	5.76207	SUNYAC
17	Washington and Lee	5.57908	ODAC
18	Haverford	5.40503	CC
19	McDaniel	4.91468	CC
20	Middlebury	4.75055	NESCAC
21	Chapman	4.7442	SCIAC
22	Stevens	4.70425	MACF
23	St. Thomas	4.36933	MIAC
24	Swarthmore	4.15057	CC
25	Randolph-Macon	4.03618	ODAC

Anyone know if any of the teams in the bottom group play any of the teams in the top group before the postseason?
(https://discnerd.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/image-3.png)
My best hope is MIT or Tufts, but they only have conference games left.

"I, in my great and unmatched wisdom" am not sure what to make of this or much of anything else right now.

An arrow between teams means that they have played each other.  In order to make predictions come tournament time, it would be nice if teams were connected by good opponents, just wondering if anyone here was aware of teams from that graph playing each other.

Although there are much more important things going on in this crazy world right now, I did watch (on line) the Messiah v Arcadia game Wednesday.  I think I am right that this was the fourth Falcons/Knights match up in a row to go to 2-OT but this was special.  Arcadia played the last 60 plus minutes down a player.  The Falcons out shot the Knights 40/18 to 6/4 but the Arcadia keeper and her teammates came up huge.  The Arcadia players and their coaches put on a clinic on playing down.  It is hard to imagine that these two teams won't meet again in the conference tournament.  There is still a long way to go but this has become a very special rivalry. 

Discnerd's top 25 (https://discnerd.wordpress.com/2019/10/14/d3-soccer-rankings-for-october-14/)

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	13.24	1.854
2	-1	Arcadia	MACC	12.94	-0.625
3	1	Messiah	MACC	12.89	2.457
4	5	MIT	NEWMAC	10.4	2.528
5	2	William Smith	LL	8.703	0.769
6	10	Haverford	CC	7.995	2.568
7	8	Tufts	NESCAC	7.643	1.759
8	-3	Washington U.	UAA	7.54	-1.644
9	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.469	0.405
10	-2	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	7.42	-0.458
11	-5	TCNJ	NJAC	7.282	-1.648
12	5	Centre	SAA	6.828	1.624
13	-2	Gettysburg	CC	6.756	-0.325
14	-11	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.37	-4.338
15	-1	Chicago	UAA	5.929	-0.365
16	-6	Dickinson	CC	5.722	-1.49
17	1	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	5.656	0.51
18	12	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.408	2.039
19	15	Middlebury	NESCAC	5.287	2.011
20	-7	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	4.993	-1.472
21	16	Salisbury	CAC	4.987	2.029
22	-2	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	4.932	0.164
23	10	Stevens	MACF	4.819	1.503
24	-1	McDaniel	CC	4.802	0.501
25	-6	Chapman	SCIAC	4.629	-0.447

My goodness.  No one seems to want to be #1.  The regional rankings on Wednesday should be interesting.  I am planning a trip to Greensboro to see some great soccer (no matter who shows up).  I hope the rumors that the venue has been moved to Trump National Doral are fake news. ;) 

discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	2	Messiah	MACC	13.29	0.392
2	0	Arcadia	MACC	10.68	-2.252
3	1	MIT	NEWMAC	9.581	-0.822
4	-3	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.38	-3.861
5	1	Haverford	CC	8.128	0.133
6	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	8.024	0.556
7	-2	William Smith	LL	7.519	-1.184
8	4	Centre	SAA	7.422	0.595
9	2	TCNJ	NJAC	7.129	-0.154
10	4	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.095	0.726
11	-4	Tufts	NESCAC	6.679	-0.963
12	4	Dickinson	CC	6.636	0.914
13	-5	Washington U.	UAA	6.49	-1.05
14	-4	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.32	-1.1
15	17	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	5.904	2.53
16	4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.604	0.611
17	4	Salisbury	CAC	5.391	0.404
18	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.176	-0.231
19	-4	Chicago	UAA	5.143	-0.786
20	-7	Gettysburg	CC	5.129	-1.627
21	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	5.063	0.131
22	3	Chapman	SCIAC	4.618	-0.011
23	1	McDaniel	CC	4.594	-0.208
24	-7	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	4.581	-1.075
25	-2	Stevens	MACF	4.364	-0.455

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Tufts	10-1-2	0.638	--	10-1-2	--
2.	MIT	13-1-2	0.594	--	13-1-2	--
3.	Middlebury	10-1-2	0.568	--	10-1-2	--
4.	Wesleyan	8-2-2	0.593	--	8-2-2	--
5.	Williams	8-3-1	0.630	--	8-3-1	--
6.	Connecticut College	9-3-1	0.563	--	9-3-1	--
7.	Amherst	9-3-1	0.594	--	9-3-1	--
8.	Brandeis	9-5-0	0.640	--	9-5-0	--
9.	Springfield	10-3-1	0.532	--	10-3-1	--
10.	Hamilton	8-4-1	0.568	--	8-4-1	--
11.	Emerson	10-4-0	0.561	--	10-4-0	--
12.	Wheaton (Mass.)	7-3-3	0.594	--	7-3-3	--

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	William Smith	11-1-1	0.667	--	11-1-1	--
2.	Geneseo State	13-2-1	0.556	--	13-2-1	--
3.	RIT	10-3-0	0.613	--	10-3-0	--
4.	Rochester	8-4-1	0.623	--	8-4-1	--
5.	Nazareth	8-3-2	0.588	--	8-3-2	--
6.	St. Lawrence	9-3-0	0.567	--	9-3-0	--
7.	New York University	9-5-0	0.627	--	9-5-0	--

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	13-1-1	0.638	--	13-1-1	--
2.	Johns Hopkins	10-1-4	0.689	--	10-1-4	--
3.	Arcadia	12-2-2	0.616	--	12-2-2	--
4.	Haverford	11-1-2	0.591	--	11-1-2	--
5.	Dickinson	10-1-4	0.600	--	10-1-4	--
6.	Stevens	9-3-1	0.644	--	9-3-1	--
7.	McDaniel	11-4-0	0.595	--	11-4-0	--
8.	Swarthmore	9-4-0	0.611	--	9-4-0	--
9.	Gettysburg	9-2-1	0.564	--	9-2-1	--
10.	Misericordia	7-4-2	0.620	--	7-4-2	--

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	TCNJ	12-1-0	0.569	--	12-1-0	--
2.	Christopher Newport	13-1-2	0.569	--	13-1-2	--
3.	Centre	16-0-0	0.522	--	17-0-0	--
4.	Emory	9-4-0	0.699	--	9-4-0	--
5.	Randolph-Macon	14-0-0	0.527	--	14-0-0	--
6.	Roanoke	11-3-1	0.611	--	11-3-1	--
7.	Montclair State	10-4-2	0.603	--	10-4-2	--
8.	Lynchburg	9-4-1	0.621	--	9-4-1	--

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Carnegie Mellon	9-3-1	0.630	--	9-3-1	--
2.	Case Western Reserve	11-3-0	0.576	--	11-3-0	--
3.	Ohio Northern	10-2-2	0.557	--	11-2-2	--
4.	Otterbein	12-1-1	0.537	--	12-1-1	--
5.	Denison	6-4-4	0.660	--	6-4-4	--
6.	Wooster	9-2-2	0.537	--	9-2-2	--
7.	Capital	11-4-0	0.556	--	11-4-0	--
8.	DePauw	8-5-2	0.567	--	8-5-2	--

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Washington U.	13-1-1	0.626	--	13-1-1	--
2.	Wheaton (Ill.)	13-1-1	0.668	--	13-1-1	--
3.	Chicago	10-1-2	0.643	--	10-1-2	--
4.	Illinois Wesleyan	8-5-0	0.602	--	8-5-0	--
5.	Adrian	9-4-2	0.563	--	11-4-2	--
6.	Webster	9-4-1	0.523	--	9-4-1	--

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	St. Thomas	10-2-2	0.613	--	10-2-2	--
2.	Wartburg	10-2-3	0.605	--	10-2-3	--
3.	Augsburg	10-3-1	0.582	--	10-3-1	--
4.	UW-Stevens Point	9-3-2	0.581	--	9-3-2	--
5.	UW-La Crosse	10-4-2	0.583	--	10-4-2	--
6.	Dubuque	9-3-2	0.566	--	9-3-2	--
7.	Saint Benedict	8-3-2	0.571	--	8-3-2	--
8.	Carleton	8-2-3	0.552	--	8-2-3	--

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Pomona-Pitzer	11-1-1	0.622	--	12-1-1	--
2.	Trinity (Texas)	10-2-0	0.620	--	11-2-0	--
3.	Cal Lutheran	8-1-3	0.541	--	8-1-3	--
4.	Hardin-Simmons	10-2-1	0.565	--	11-2-1	--
5.	Texas-Dallas	13-1-2	0.533	--	13-1-2	--
6.	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	7-3-3	0.602	--	8-3-3	--

discnerd's top 25 (https://discnerd.wordpress.com/2019/10/29/d3-soccer-rankings-for-october-28/)

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Messiah	MACC	12.47	-0.82
2	1	MIT	NEWMAC	10.01	0.432
3	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.713	0.333
4	-2	Arcadia	MACC	9.276	-1.409
5	5	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.569	0.474
6	1	William Smith	LL	7.549	0.03
7	1	Centre	SAA	7.519	0.097
8	7	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	7.383	1.478
9	-4	Haverford	CC	7.15	-0.978
10	-4	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.076	-0.949
11	1	Dickinson	CC	6.942	0.306
12	-3	TCNJ	NJAC	6.795	-0.333
13	1	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.18	-0.141
14	7	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	6.174	1.111
15	5	Gettysburg	CC	5.995	0.866
16	-3	Washington U.	UAA	5.781	-0.709
17	-1	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.724	0.119
18	-7	Tufts	NESCAC	5.515	-1.164
19	-2	Salisbury	CAC	5.364	-0.026
20	2	Chapman	SCIAC	5.115	0.497
21	2	McDaniel	CC	5.083	0.488
22	-4	Washington and Lee	ODAC	4.83	-0.346
23	-4	Chicago	UAA	4.745	-0.398
24	1	Stevens	MACF	4.219	-0.145
25	1	Otterbein	OAC	4.175	0.223

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	MIT	15-1-2	0.585	4-0-2	15-1-2	2
2.	Middlebury	11-1-2	0.586	4-1-1	11-1-2	3
3.	Tufts	10-2-2	0.641	5-2-2	10-2-2	1
4.	Wesleyan	9-3-2	0.562	4-2-1	9-3-2	4
5.	Williams	8-4-1	0.622	4-2-1	8-4-1	5
6.	Amherst	10-3-1	0.568	3-3-1	10-3-1	7
7.	Hamilton	10-4-1	0.564	1-4-1	10-4-1	10
8.	Connecticut College	9-4-1	0.566	1-3-1	9-4-1	6
9.	Brandeis	10-5-0	0.623	1-5-0	10-5-0	8
10.	Springfield	11-4-1	0.536	1-3-1	11-4-1	9
11.	Emerson	10-4-2	0.549	1-3-0	10-4-2	11
12.	Trinity (Conn.)	6-6-2	0.602	3-2-2	6-6-2	--

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	William Smith	13-1-1	0.631	4-1-1	13-1-1	1
2.	Geneseo State	14-2-1	0.559	3-2-0	14-2-1	2
3.	RIT	10-3-2	0.608	2-3-1	10-3-2	3
4.	Rochester	8-4-2	0.634	1-4-2	8-4-2	4
5.	Nazareth	9-4-2	0.592	1-3-0	9-4-2	5
6.	St. Lawrence	10-3-0	0.567	1-2-0	10-3-0	6
7.	New York University	10-5-0	0.626	1-4-0	10-5-0	7

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-1-1	0.634	6-1-1	15-1-1	1
2.	Johns Hopkins	11-1-4	0.669	6-1-3	11-1-4	2
3.	Arcadia	14-2-2	0.615	4-1-1	14-2-2	3
4.	Dickinson	11-1-4	0.606	2-1-2	11-1-4	5
5.	Stevens	11-3-1	0.630	2-3-1	11-3-1	6
6.	Haverford	11-2-2	0.599	2-2-1	11-2-2	4
7.	Gettysburg	11-2-1	0.574	2-1-0	11-2-1	9
8.	McDaniel	13-4-0	0.591	2-3-0	13-4-0	7
9.	Swarthmore	10-5-0	0.616	1-5-0	10-5-0	8
10.	Misericordia	9-4-2	0.608	0-3-1	9-4-2	10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	TCNJ	13-1-0	0.574	3-1-0	13-1-1	--
2.	Christopher Newport	15-1-2	0.545	2-0-2	15-1-2	2
3.	Centre	17-0-0	0.529	3-0-0	18-0-0	3
4.	Emory	10-4-0	0.681	3-4-0	10-4-0	4
5.	Randolph-Macon	16-0-0	0.523	2-0-0	16-0-0	5
6.	Roanoke	12-4-1	0.624	1-3-0	12-4-1	6
7.	Montclair State	15-5-2	0.602	0-3-0	11-5-2	7
8.	Salisbury	13-2-2	0.519	1-2-0	13-2-2	--

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Carnegie Mellon	10-3-1	0.640	4-3-1	10-3-1	1
2.	Case Western Reserve	12-3-0	0.568	3-3-0	12-3-0	2
3.	Ohio Northern	12-2-2	0.557	2-2-1	13-2-2	3
4.	Otterbein	14-1-1	0.531	2-0-1	14-1-1	4
5.	Denison	7-5-4	0.634	2-3-3	7-5-4	5
6.	Wooster	10-2-3	0.530	0-1-2	10-2-3	6
7.	Capital	12-5-0	0.553	1-3-0	12-5-0	7
8.	DePauw	10-5-2	0.556	0-3-2	10-5-2	8

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Washington U.	13-1-1	0.628	7-1-0	13-1-1	1
2.	Wheaton (Ill.)	14-1-1	0.649	5-1-1	14-1-1	2
3.	Chicago	11-1-2	0.649	4-1-2	11-1-2	3
4.	Illinois Wesleyan	10-5-0	0.601	2-4-0	10-5-0	4
5.	Adrian	11-4-2	0.541	0-3-2	13-4-2	5
6.	North Central (Ill.)	9-7-1	0.557	1-3-0	9-7-1	--

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	St. Thomas	12-2-2	0.598	3-2-2	12-2-2	1
2.	Wartburg	11-2-3	0.594	2-2-2	11-2-3	2
3.	Augsburg	11-3-1	0.594	3-1-0	11-3-1	3
4.	UW-La Crosse	11-5-2	0.577	2-2-1	11-5-2	5
5.	UW-Stevens Point	10-4-2	0.558	2-2-0	10-4-2	4
6.	Saint Benedict	8-5-2	0.591	1-3-0	8-5-2	7
7.	Loras	13-4-0	0.556	1-4-0	13-4-0	--
8.	UW-Whitewater	11-4-3	0.547	1-2-1	11-4-3	--

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Pomona-Pitzer	12-1-2001	0.630	3-1-1	13-1-1	1
2.	Cal Lutheran	10-2-3	0.562	2-1-2	10-2-3	3
3.	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	9-3-3	0.587	2-2-1	10-3-3	--
4.	Trinity (Texas)	10-3-0	0.625	1-2-0	12-3-0	2
5.	Hardin-Simmons	11-2-1	0.547	1-2-1	12-2-1	4
6.	Chapman	10-3-3	0.532	1-3-1	10-3-3	--

Two big upsets last night -

Augustana and #5 Wheaton played to a 0-0 draw through 2 OT periods. Augustana advances to the CCIW final on PKs, 4-2, where they will face Illinois Wesleyan for the title and the AQ for the CCIW to the NCAA. Wheaton had a 30-4 shot advantage with 16 on frame. Got to put those chances away!

Wheaton will still get an at-large bid so this is probably taking an at-large from another school. IWU had a slim chance to advance to the NCAA as an at-large without winning the title game if they had faced Wheaton and lost. Now they really need to beat Augie because there is no way that that the CCIW will get three bids.

Mary Washington beat #8 Christopher Newport, 1-0, in the CAC semifinal. Mary Washington, with a record of 10-10, now plays York, 9-12 record, in the CAC final. As with the CCIW, this is probably taking an at-large from someone. Christopher Newport will more than likely get an at-large and the CAC winner the AQ. Additionally, as with the CCIW, I just don't see the CAC getting three bids so Salisbury is probably going to be the odd man out.

In another game, Otterbein, of the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC), needed 2 OT periods to overcome 8-9-1 Wilmington. Unless Otterbein advances to the OAC final and wins, they may be playing themselves out of a bid. Last week Otterbein lost to a fairly average Capital team, 2-0. The OAC is not a particularly strong conference and usually only gets the AQ with no at-larges. The best bet for the OAC to get two bids would be if a team other than Ohio Northern get the AQ in which case ONU would have a chance at an at-large.

I am pretty sure that the CCIW AQ is determined by the regular season.  So Wheaton was already through to the NCAA Tournament. 

I know there are a bunch of Conferences that choose the AQ that way.  I understand why the UAA does it that way, being spread out from Boston to Georgia to Missouri but I don't really understand why, if you are having a tournament, the AQ goes to the regular season champ/winner/top seed?  Perhaps, "The Shadow Knows".   

Quote from: 2xfaux on November 07, 2019, 11:06:17 AM
I am pretty sure that the CCIW AQ is determined by the regular season.  So Wheaton was already through to the NCAA Tournament. 

I know there are a bunch of Conferences that choose the AQ that way.  I understand why the UAA does it that way, being spread out from Boston to Georgia to Missouri but I don't really understand why, if you are having a tournament, the AQ goes to the regular season champ/winner/top seed?  Perhaps, "The Shadow Knows".

Personally I'd prefer if the AQ went to the regular season champion PROVIDED you have a full round robin. For conferences like the ODAC, with ridiculously unbalanced schedules, the tournament makes sense. Otherwise, I wish the season mattered more. Soccer makes for a relatively poor tournament sport. Low scoring sports are too fluky. I get why the NCAA has to crown a champion that way, but I dislike the conferences (and MLS and the NWSL for that matter) putting the emphasis on tournaments.

Quote from: 2xfaux on November 07, 2019, 11:06:17 AM
I am pretty sure that the CCIW AQ is determined by the regular season.  So Wheaton was already through to the NCAA Tournament. 

Actually the CCIW doesn't determine the AQ by the regular season. It is determined by the conference tournament champion. From the 2019 Conference Championship Central page at this website this is what is stated about the CCIW: "Tournament awards automatic berth (AQ) only; 2019 conference champion based on regular season." I know that might seem a little confusing but if you scroll down on the page, you'll find this: CCIW (T).

Here's the legend and what (T) means:
(R) - automatic berth awarded to regular season champion
(T) - automatic berth awarded to post-season tournament winner

The above came from this page - https://d3soccer.com/playoffs/2019-conference-championship-central

Also, BJ Pheasant of this website, had these comments about Wheaton:

"The Thunder dominated play to finish the CCIW schedule undefeated. They secured their 21st title in 25 years showing the CCIW to be a one team league. They will get an at-large bid if they are upset in the conference tourney and don't secure the AQ."

Those comments show that the AQ is the CCIW tournament. As an aside, I had to laugh at his "showing the CCIW to be a one team league" comment. The guy really does not know what he is talking about and is one of the lamest contributors here. He regularly makes baseless comments, good or bad, about teams.

Over the course of probably the last 15 years, Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan both make the NCAAs more often than not. IWU was the conference tournament champion last year over Wheaton so they got the AQ while Wheaton was the at-large. If IWU had not beaten Wheaton last year in the tournament it was doubtful that they would have made the tournament. The new coach started last season and things were a bit rough. In most years both teams are good enough that if they don't win the conference tournament, they get an at-large.

IWU had a pretty rough start to this year but have since become a decent side. IWU actually may have had a better chance to make the tournament if Wheaton had beaten Augustana because if they were then to lose to Wheaton in the conference finals, they had a good chance to make the tournament as an at-large. Above I said that they had a "slim chance" but after reevaluating things I believe that their chances were good even with a loss to Wheaton in the tournament. As I said in my other post, IWU really needs to beat Augie now because there will not be three CCIW teams in the tournament.

My goodness, I did not read the fine print.  Thanks for the clarification.

I never read "terms of service" either.  I need to pay more attention to detail.

Thanks again and good luck to the Titans.

Yes, about 2/3 of conferences determine their official champion by their post-season tournament and give them the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament.  In these cases, "regular season champion" is an unofficial title. 

About 1/3 of conferences determine their official champion by regular season finish, but award their NCAA automatic berth to their post-season tournament "champion".

And then there are the UAA and NWC that do not hold a post-season tournament and determine their official champion by regular season finish and give them the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament.

Quote from: 2xfaux on November 07, 2019, 01:49:57 PM
My goodness, I did not read the fine print.  Thanks for the clarification.

I never read "terms of service" either.  I need to pay more attention to detail.

Thanks again and good luck to the Titans.

I'm actually not a Titan supporter and I have no ties to the school other than someone I know that was/is looking at it. I'm also just a fan of the game. I watch just about any game and keep up with many teams - from my local high school boys and girls teams, various college teams, national teams of different countries, and multiple men's professional leagues (though generally not the MLS).

I hope I didn't violate the "terms of service" with my comment about the columnist here, BJ Pheasant. I didn't know if that was your way of telling me that I may have.  ;)

Anyway, Pheasant has rubbed me the wrong way more than once with comments that he has made about various teams. Pertaining to IWU in particular, a few weeks ago he stated that Wheaton had a "dominating" performance against IWU. I happened to watch the game that he referred to. If he had, he would not have said the performance was dominating. While Wheaton had a big shot advantage, IWU created just as many chances. Wheaton's goal was actually an own goal scored by IWU. 

The comment stating that the CCIW is a one team league is totally baseless and untrue. I knew that IWU contended often so I looked up their post season record going back about 15 years.

- CCIW champions in 2008, 2015, 2016, and 2018 and a good chance this season. I assume that those are the playoff championships since last season Wheatopn was regular season champ.

- They've made 11 NCAA appearance since 2005 with a good chance to do so again.

- NCAA Final 4 in 2014.

That seems a like more than a one team league to me.

As I stated, there are other teams that he has made inaccurate comments about in the past. His comments are disrespectful. If he doesn't know what he is talking about, he should keep comments to himself.

My "terms of service" wasn't about this site but about my laziness on other sites where I mechanically check "agree" which probably explains why I keep getting emails from the Russian Mob telling me they have "stoln myid and is not so good so we giv back it maybe plese to u."  My attorney, Rudy, has it under control.

Meanwhile, in about an hour and half the Messiah Women will meet an Albright team that is playing very well on a cold, soggy Shoemaker Field and will shall see what happens there.

Discnerd's top 64


Invariably, some AQs are not on this list and geographic considerations get in the way of others.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Messiah	13.79377	MACC
2	Pomona-Pitzer	9.643365	SCIAC
3	MIT	9.057278	NEWMAC
4	Dickinson	8.611713	CC
5	Randolph-Macon	8.089854	ODAC
6	Arcadia	8.063929	MACC
7	TCNJ	7.746821	NJAC
8	Centre	7.511777	SAA
9	William Smith	7.14224	LL
10	Johns Hopkins	7.115187	CC
11	Christopher Newport	7.045461	CAC
12	Cal Lutheran	6.630379	SCIAC
13	Gettysburg	6.578958	CC
14	Haverford	6.020715	CC
15	Wheaton (Ill.)	5.698542	CCIW
16	Washington U.	5.558154	UAA
17	Tufts	5.280789	NESCAC
18	Salisbury	5.031897	CAC
19	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	4.827498	SCIAC
20	Stevens	4.659533	MACF
21	Chapman	4.656979	SCIAC
22	McDaniel	4.640234	CC
23	Swarthmore	4.547481	CC
24	Washington and Lee	4.449458	ODAC
25	Middlebury	4.026778	NESCAC
26	Virginia Wesleyan	3.96818	ODAC
27	Chicago	3.904208	UAA
28	Amherst	3.846481	NESCAC
29	Emory	3.767356	UAA
30	Geneseo State	3.64551	SUNYAC
31	St. Thomas	3.527784	MIAC
32	Misericordia	3.249596	MACF
33	Case Western Reserve	3.169702	UAA
34	Trinity (Texas)	3.163499	SCAC
35	Otterbein	3.07493	OAC
36	Pacific Lutheran	3.018315	NWC
37	Susquehanna	2.984115	LAND
38	Elizabethtown	2.975267	LAND
39	Williams	2.834563	NESCAC
40	Wartburg	2.796383	ARC
41	Roanoke	2.751019	ODAC
42	Ohio Northern	2.725475	OAC
43	Hardin-Simmons	2.716677	ASC
44	Scranton	2.700049	LAND
45	Franklin and Marshall	2.645889	CC
46	Lynchburg	2.633514	ODAC
47	Bridgewater (Va.)	2.60726	ODAC
48	WPI	2.541602	NEWMAC
49	Muhlenberg	2.512479	CC
50	Rochester	2.484983	UAA
51	Mary Washington	2.4692	CAC
52	RIT	2.382	LL
53	Hamilton	2.361833	NESCAC
54	Stockton	2.323569	NJAC
55	St. Lawrence	2.301917	LL
56	Montclair State	2.283094	NJAC
57	Augsburg	2.270362	MIAC
58	Wesleyan	2.268807	NESCAC
59	Illinois Wesleyan	2.237537	CCIW
60	Capital	2.221798	OAC
61	Carnegie Mellon	2.196927	UAA
62	Occidental	2.170574	SCIAC
63	Connecticut College	2.143517	NESCAC
64	Puget Sound	2.04458	NWC

BTW, Trinity (TX) lost in PKs (5-4) to Southwestern in the SCAC championship game yesterday.   SW's keeper, Mary Cardone, was on top of her game, stopping 12 SOG including a PK in regulation to keep the match scoreless.   She also stopped Trinity's final PK which gave the Pirates the win.  The loss puts an end to Trinity's D3-record 134 consecutive conference wins.   Southwestern, badly outshot on the day (24-4, 12-3 SOG) will need to find some kind of offense to make any noise in the team's first playoff run. 

This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer. 

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 11, 2019, 09:21:10 AM
This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer.

Trinity might be OK getting in as a "pool C" candidate.

Did you happen to read Christan Shirk's and Jim Hutchinson's excellent Women's at-large berth analysis and predictions? They've got Trinity listed as "probably okay, but still nervous."

Here is the link to that: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Quote from: PlaySimple on November 11, 2019, 10:56:55 AM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 11, 2019, 09:21:10 AM
This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer.

Trinity might be OK getting in as a "pool C" candidate.

Did you happen to read Christan Shirk's and Jim Hutchinson's excellent Women's at-large berth analysis and predictions? They've got Trinity listed as "probably okay, but still nervous."

Here is the link to that: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Thanks, I had not seen it.   Good thing they beat Hardin-Simmons early in the season.

They did make it in, were sent to Hardin-Simmons, and will face either the Cowgirls or Southwestern should they make it to the second round. 

So are there any omissions or inclusions in the field that surprised anyone?

I have heard some grumbling from Centre fans that despite a 21-0-0 season, they are not hosting and must travel to Ohio Northern. I actually am going to respectfully disagree with those fans. Centre has one of the lowest SOSs in the entire field. Unless I'm mistaken, Webster and Concordia are the only teams in the field with a lower SOS than Centre. If Jay Hoffman wants to enhance Centre's prospects of hosting, he should have a stronger OOC schedule because the conference that Centre plays in, the SAA, is not strong. Centre's best win of the year was definitely its 1-0 win over Emory at the end September but the Colonels did not face enough other quality opponents to supplement that win. There was a game scheduled against Mt St Joseph, an NCAA qualifier last season, but they were not a good side this season. NCAC teams Wittenberg, DePauw, and Denison were all on the schedule as well but none of those teams were that strong this season and the NCAC was not a strong conference. The lone OAC conference team on the schedule, Mt Union, was not that strong and, again, the OAC was a middling conference. Centre would be better off scheduling more difficult sides and perhaps losing a few along the way as opposed to how Hoffman currently schedules. This would also prepare them more for the post season. The Colonels do have a decent chance to survive the opening weekend but I don't see them hanging around after the second weekend. Assuming that Centre wins their opening game, they'll more than likely face a very beatable Ohio Northern team in the second game.

Jim Hutchinson and Christan Shirk did an excellent job of analyzing and predicting the field prior to the selections. Here is is if you haven't read it already: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

In the analysis, Otterbein and Wesleyan were listed as being "on the right side of the bubble." Both must have been on the wrong side of the bubble because neither was selected. I was actually surprised that Otterbein was mentioned as having a good chance due to losing to Ohio Northern in the OAC final. I honestly can't remember the last tie that the OAC had an at-large selection. The conference is decent but is not particularly strong. I would have been surprised if Otterbein had made the field and their omission was the correct decision by the committee.

I was more surprised by the omission of NESCAC member Wesleyan. Wesleyan had a 4-4-1 record versus ranked teams including a 2-1 win over Williams. What probably doomed Wesleyan was going 0-3 over the last 3 games.

I was a little surprised that the Centennial Conference had 5 selections. I thought one of Swarthmore or Haverford would be in the field but not both. There were 10 selections in the tournament between the UAA and the Centennial. Last year the UAA also had 5 teams in the field and that did not turn out well for them. 

So much confuses me these days.  I was hoping the geography of these brackets wouldn't add to my bewildedment.  Alas, Emory goes to California and Pomona-Pitzer travels to Iowa.  Did I read this wrong?

Williams at 9-5-2 has the worst record of any team in the tournament but as two time defending champion and winner of three of the last four I am glad they are here.  If the EPHS get past Gettysburg and the MIT v J&W winner, I wouldn't want to play them.  I am not an EPHS fan but they owe Coach Pinard their best effort. Big Time.

I saw the same thing with Emory going to California. The  large endowment of Emory and the one player on the roster from California must have been the reason, sarcasm intended.

I understand the Centre grumbling after going 21-0 and having to go to Ohio Northem. SOS is understood, but one of the problems for Centre is that teams don't want to schedule agreements with home and home. Teams want Centre to travel to their location to play, but not come to Danville, KY to reciprocate the following year. Centre has a strong endowment, but not UAA strong for travel.  Unverified rumor from UAA friends, but one or more UAA teams, besides Emory,  will play Centre in the future and agree to home and home schedule.

I still think Wheaton could make a deep run since they get to host and their bracket is winnable.

Quote from: cciw83 on November 12, 2019, 04:17:15 PM

I understand the Centre grumbling after going 21-0 and having to go to Ohio Northem. SOS is understood, but one of the problems for Centre is that teams don't want to schedule agreements with home and home. Teams want Centre to travel to their location to play, but not come to Danville, KY to reciprocate the following year. Centre has a strong endowment, but not UAA strong for travel.  Unverified rumor from UAA friends, but one or more UAA teams, besides Emory,  will play Centre in the future and agree to home and home schedule.

I do think that Centre has a legitimate gripe but that low SOS can't be denied. That said, I would like to see them beat Scranton and Ohio Northern beat Grove City to set up a second round game in which Centre beats ONU. I'll be pulling for Centre.

Centre should be able to beef up their SOS with some better scheduling. In looking at schools in the UAA that are 6 hours or less in travel from Centre there is Wash U, Emory, Case Western Reserve, and U of Chicago. Venture out a little more and there is Carnegie Mellon at 6.5-7 hours. In the CCIW, Illinois Wesleyan is 5.5-6 hours and Wheaton is probably 6+/- hours (my times probably seem off because IWU is further south in Illinois than Wheaton and U of Chicago but when going to the Chicago area schools from Kentucky you would drive straight up 65. To IWU you would need to take 65 to 74 and cut west). In the Ohio Athletic Conference there is Ohio Northern at a bit more than 4 hours away. Otterbein and Capital in Columbus are both decent as well and are probably 4 hours or less from Centre.

The UAA and CCIW schools that I mentioned don't shy away from tough competition and seek it out. Any of them would increase Centre's SOS. If those schools are concerned about going to Danville, KY for one game they should easily be able to find another on the front end or back end of the trip. The same is true for Centre when they go away.

All of the OAC schools could stand to bolster their SOS a bit so they should seemingly welcome playing Centre as long as Centre bolsters their schedule vs other opponents.

Quote from: cciw83 on November 12, 2019, 04:17:15 PM
I still think Wheaton could make a deep run since they get to host and their bracket is winnable.

I heard from a second-hand source that some of Wheaton's starters are a bit nicked up with injuries. Also, there is a lot of the flu going around so perhaps they're not injured but maybe sick. I didn't verify that info but the person that told me would have no reason to lie about it. Again, second-hand info to me.

If Wheaton is a little nicked up, facing Webster in the opening game will be good. Webster has the lowest SOS of any team in the tournament. A probable second round match up vs CWRU will be more challenging, though. If Wheaton does make it into the second weekend, one thing in its favor is that they never play games on Sunday so they'll have an extra day of rest over whoever their third round opponent is. I know that one day isn't going to make a big difference but if there are injuries it could be helpful.

QuoteIn the analysis, Otterbein and Wesleyan were listed as being "on the right side of the bubble." Both must have been on the wrong side of the bubble because neither was selected. I was actually surprised that Otterbein was mentioned as having a good chance due to losing to Ohio Northern in the OAC final. I honestly can't remember the last tie that the OAC had an at-large selection. The conference is decent but is not particularly strong. I would have been surprised if Otterbein had made the field and their omission was the correct decision by the committee.

I was more surprised by the omission of NESCAC member Wesleyan. Wesleyan had a 4-4-1 record versus ranked teams including a 2-1 win over Williams. What probably doomed Wesleyan was going 0-3 over the last 3 games.

First thank you for the kind words on the At Large predictions. I struggled mightily with Wesleyan's inclusion since neither their Win% or SoS merited that but I was mesmerized by their 4 ranked wins. In the analysis I published last week, Women's NCAA "At Large"  "https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early (http://"https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early) from 2011-2018 46 of 47 Pool C "candidates" with four or more wins were selected. With 20/20 hindsight, and a lot less sleep deprivation, I should have listed them at best as "Squarely on the Bubble ..." or probably "Wrong side ..." aka "Last n out ...".

Otterbein was a spreadsheet error, pure and simple. I had their projected SoS much higher than the Final Regional Ranking number. If I had the final result in my thinking I would have put them in the "Bubble" category.

And, not to make excuses, but I will :), we had a ton of things going on with the site that day, 20 hours at the keyboard was too much for this old brain. That said, this was my second year at this and I learned quite a bit. It is an intellectually challenging exercise, for sure.

For those who would like to watch the games from the WashU pod this Saturday and Sunday, the watching is free at:

washubears.com
Click on "Live Broadcasts"

And, if you have Roku, Apple TV, Android TV, or Amazon Fire TV...look for the WashU logo on the intuitive interface and watch the action from your favorite TV!

Saturday: 
WashU vs. Maryville College (TN), 11 a.m. CST
Adrian vs. Wisconsin-Stevens Point, 1:30 p.m.

Sunday:
2nd Round game, 1:00 p.m.

Quote from: ThankstoJack on November 13, 2019, 03:28:15 PM

First thank you for the kind words on the At Large predictions. I struggled mightily with Wesleyan's inclusion since neither their Win% or SoS merited that but I was mesmerized by their 4 ranked wins. In the analysis I published last week, Women's NCAA "At Large"  "https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early (http://"https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early) from 2011-2018 46 of 47 Pool C "candidates" with four or more wins were selected. With 20/20 hindsight, and a lot less sleep deprivation, I should have listed them at best as "Squarely on the Bubble ..." or probably "Wrong side ..." aka "Last n out ...".

Otterbein was a spreadsheet error, pure and simple. I had their projected SoS much higher than the Final Regional Ranking number. If I had the final result in my thinking I would have put them in the "Bubble" category.

And, not to make excuses, but I will :), we had a ton of things going on with the site that day, 20 hours at the keyboard was too much for this old brain. That said, this was my second year at this and I learned quite a bit. It is an intellectually challenging exercise, for sure.

Thank you for the time and effort that you put in to the analysis. I enjoyed reading all parts of it - the selection criteria, observations from the past, the at-large selection timeline and process, the color coded tables for pools A, B, and C, and mostly the Pool B At-Large Berth Analysis and Predictions. For the most part you were spot-on with your analysis. I was looking forward to also reading Some Final Observations and Comments but I'm sure that you have a lot on your plate.

I hope that this is something that you continue to do in the future. I think that your analysis is better than what the All White Kit does for women's DI. I wish that someone did the same for women's D2, and men's D1 & D2.

Wheaton beat Webster to lead off the tournament and just now Wooster advances in PKs over CWRU following a 0-0 draw.

Trinity (TX) gets past Hardin-Simmons on the road 2-0, marking the first time they've defeated HSU in the playoffs since 2011.   They play at #1 Messiah next, meeting for the first time since 2005. 

One odd thing about today's game:  the Tiger women were carded six times (fortunately none in the box, and no player was carded twice).   In the previous 20 games, the entire team had totaled three yellows.    The home-standing Cowgirls were carded once. 

That's a bunch of yellows.  I watched the beginning of the H-S v Trinity game but wandered off before the cards.  The Trinity v Messiah matchup should be interesting.  Williams and Tufts know each other well.  We shall see! 

Will be at Messiah for both games today. Nice, beautiful, sunny, crisp November morning. Rain expected later today but should start after both games are complete. Will be 38 degrees at KO of 1st game warming to 47 degrees by 2nd game. It is odd that Trinity and Messiah have not met more often given their consistent appearances in the NCAAs. Game two is an all NESCAC affair. Good stuff.

Rough day for the CCIW yesterday, Wheaton women and North Park men do not advance.

Watched the last 25 minutes of regulation, OTs and PKs of the Wheaton game. Wheaton threw everything at St. Thomas and after tying with a PK came close to win in regulation as a cross hit the crossbar and a defender stuck a leg out to block a wide open shot. St. Thomas nailed their PKS. The portion I watched reminded me a lot of the Centre v Scranton last week as Centre threw everything at Scranton in the second half and OTs, but could not finish. Scranton went in and hit every PK.  I would be interested to hear about the first half of the Wheaton game as I did not see it. I thought this was a Wheaton team, even though they're young, was going to make a deep run.

The video stream and commentary of the Wheaton game was first class. The commentary was excellent on the North Park game, but it might have been the device I was watching on, but I was getting some freezing.

A side note, but when hosting sites are considered it would be nice if issues like audio commentary on streaming, game programs, etc are considered.  There are teams that don't go to the tournament every year like Messiah, Williams, William Smith, Wheaton, etc  do and it is a big deal to the teams that are not regulars. Trying to watch the streamed games without commentary at Ohio Northern last week did not give the feel of a NCAA tournament game. I found out that Ohio Northern had a regular season home football game at the same time and that may have been given precedence.

Shoemaker was covered with snow at 9:00 am this morning and the decision was made to move the Sectional final to the lacrosse field. It was a fabulous 110 minutes of soccer that had to unfortunately end in PKs. Messiah prevailed 3-2 on PKs, but I left at the end of the 2nd OT not wanting to watch (the Messiah women have been eliminated on PKs in each of the last five years). Hats off to Williams College who threw everything at Messiah and was ever so close to advancing to the Final Four. It is easy to see why they have won 3 of the last 4 national championships.

Godspeed to Coach Pinard, a great coach and a very classy Human Being.  Quite a game!!