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D3soccer.com => Men's soccer => Topic started by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 09:45:41 AM

Title: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 09:45:41 AM
Winner gets a full year subscription to University of Rochester athletics video streams.  As a parent of a fairly recent UR graduate, I remain mystified that UR cost me well over 200K (even after some decent merit aid), and I can't access UR matches for free (unlike almost every other major (and non-major) D3 program in the country). 

Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 11:11:53 AM
PaulNewman Pool C Predictions


1) Amherst
2) Tufts/Middlebury
3) Conn
4) Williams
5) WPI/Brandeis (a close one but I'm going with WPI even though a 3-3-1 record in the UAA often would correlate with a bid)
Sleeper choice:  ECSU if does not get AQ today)


6) RPI
7) Rochester

1-2 additional slots for East with Ithaca, Hobart and Clarkson with almost indistinguishable resumes bearing in mind that Clarkson's SoS should end up competitive with the other two based on last 3 games of Ithaca, RPI and Hobart although Clarkson would end up with 1-2 more blemishes....and noting that Ithaca had H2H on Hobart while Clarkson had H2H on Ithaca)....So I will go with...

8) Hobart/Clarkson "loser"
9) Ithaca (went back and forth on whether to give East another slot but Ithaca's 3 ranked wins may be difference compared to some teams in other regions....and while not being surprised if Ithaca is a casualty of their own making down the stretch)

10) JHU/F&M "loser"
11) Swarthmore (resume very similar to Conn Coll)
12) Gettysburg (fortunate with 11-7-1 record but sky-high SoS and 4-5-1 RvR which edges Haverford and Dickinson, also with shy-high SoS but with slightly inferior record and weaker RvR profile)

13) Christopher Newport
14) Centre (if doesn't get AQ)
15) Rowan (based on far superior SoS and superior RvR compared to Ramapo, Roanoke, etc and with chance for extra ranked win if MSU gets in final ranking)

16) OWU
17) Ohio Northern
(I have Mt Union and Otterbein on outside looking in but if there's another GL slot tough to call between those two as Otter has better SoS but an arguably tough to swallow 3-6 RvR while MTU is 2-3-2 or 2-4-2 on RvR and has two more blemished (9))

I was gonna pencil in KZoo until realizing that Hope beat KZoo twice which narrows the RvR advantage for KZoo to 3-3 versus 2-4-1 but with that head to head problem.  Also North Central and Wheaton right there and Wheaton would love to see UW-W in the final rankings....All those teams have very similar records and SoS.  I'm tempted to punt here, but what the heck, I'll go....

18) Hope
19) KZoo
20) North Central
Sleeper pick:  Wheaton

21) Central
(Does North get one more?  STU?  Loras?  Both with unattractive RvR but at least good number of ranked games.  Gut tells me neither deserving but that one will get in, so...)
(22) St Thomas
Sleeper:  Loras

23) Colorado Coll (if needed)
(Anybody notice that Trinity lost in SCAC semis?  On paper that would appear to end the Tigers' long consecutive NCAA run)
Sleeper pick:  Tex-Dallas or Hardin-Simmons (both low SoS but with couple of ranked wins)


That's total of 23 official picks above (not counting any sleeper picks) and with understanding that Centre, Colorado Coll may not need one....If Centre and/or Colorado get AQs, then my final additions in the 21 would be St Thomas, North Central and Ithaca.(corrected).
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: FelixCloudy on November 10, 2019, 12:48:35 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 08, 2019, 03:52:21 PM
The committee will not allocate Pool C berths upon the basis of geography. Geography is neither a primary nor a secondary criterion.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 08, 2019, 02:17:37 PM
Geography and travel certainly is a factor with some selections, but for the most part the committee tends to do a good job of getting the teams in the tourney that deserve to be in and figure out how to make it work with the pods and geography. The exception here and there is traditionally the west region, as sometimes they get a team in because of this (deserving or not) and sometimes it works the other way and they don't get a team in as it would cause more problems. Now none of this can be proven and I don't find it to be done maliciously but more for costs and logic geographically as you mentioned earlier. It's hard to judge right now until we know which teams get the AQs and which teams are vying for a Pool C. 

The reason why you can't prove it is because it doesn't happen. Again, geography is not listed as a criterion in the selection process. Dave McHugh, who does the Final Four PBP in Greensboro and who has probably talked to more NCAA officials and to members of various D3 championships committees than the rest of us combined, will back me up on this.

I am a tad confused.  It looks like you are determining your prediction for Pool C bids by region - even though @Gregory Sager says that is not a factor (except for the 500 mile travel rule)? Given the extremely high SOS in the Mid Atlantic this year, isn't it possible they could have an additional Pool C team, and New England have one less?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 01:19:39 PM
I organized by region...nothing more.  5 for NE is actually less than half of total ranked teams for NE... bigger region.  I would pick both WPI and Brandeis to get in over another MA team, although I wouldn't be shocked to see Haverford get in.  I just think the Ford's and Dickinson have too many blemishes not sufficiently offset by RvR profiles.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: FelixCloudy on November 10, 2019, 01:54:19 PM
Got it, and not advocating for any CC team at all per se - just trying to understand how WLT record, RvR and SOS affects the committee's decisions.  Is there some type of magic weighting formula that marries these three data points together?  Or simply voodoo magical judgment?  Three Pool C's for the MA is less than 1/3 of their 10 ranked teams, and if NE went to 4 Pool C's of 12 ranked teams that would be the same ratio.  And since it doesn't matter about the geography... that ratios don't even  matter, right?  Theoretically  a single region could have ALL their teams receive Pool C's if they were better than all the other D3 teams in the country?  Silly I know, just seeing if I understand the system.

Not brave enough yet to put out my own predictions - but pretty interesting to read and learn.

At the half - Dips and Hop are tied 1-1.  I completely agree that the loser is a lock for Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 03:15:15 PM
I'm gonna toss in Texas Lutheran as a possible "didn't see that coming" pick IF Tex Lutheran does not get AQ versus Colorado Coll.

Scratch that......Texas Lutheran up 2-0 will less than 20 to go.  Colorado College on the bubble and hoping for a bit of generosity towards the West region.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Off Pitch on November 10, 2019, 05:36:03 PM
Pool C predictions: (listed by region)

New England:
1.  Amherst
2.  Connecticut College
3.  WPI
4.  Middlebury
5.  Williams

East:
6.  RPI
7.  Ithaca
8.  Rochester

Mid-Atlantic:
9.  Franklin and Marshall
10.  Swarthmore
11.  Haverford
12.  Gettysburg

South Atlantic
13.  Christopher Newport
14.  Ramapo
15.  Rowan

Great Lakes:
16.  Ohio Northern
17.  Ohio Wesleyan

Central:
18.  Kalamazoo

North:
19.  Central
20.  Loras

West:
21.  Colorado
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 06:36:58 PM
PN's cleaned up version....

New England

1) Amherst
2) Midd
3) Conn Coll
4) Williams
5) WPI

Sleeper:  Brandeis

East

6) RPI
7) Rochester
8) Clarkson
9) Ithaca (I would leave Ithaca out but probably more likely for Clarkson to get left out despite big SoS jump and 2-0 H2H for Clarkson)

Mid-Atlantic

10) F&M
11) Swarthmore
12) Gettysburg (I would probably leave Getty out but Dickinson often is in this spot with a relatively mediocre profile)

Sleeper:  Haverford (Won't be surprised but SoS alone should not be enough to save the Fords...same imo with Dickinson)

South Atlantic

13) Christopher Newport
14) Rowan

Empathy pick:  Ramapo
Sleeper:  Roanoke
Condolences:  Oglethorpe

Great Lakes

15) OWU
16) Ohio Northern

Not shocked pick:  Otterbein

Central

17) Hope
18) KZoo
19) North Central

Sleeper:  Wheaton (tempted to switch with North Central based on very similar profile and better SoS although North Central has H2H and I should stick with original predictions)

North

20) Central

Sleeper:  St Thomas (one of toughest overall to make decision on and although less losses than Colorado Coll same # of blemishes and CC has two ranked wins....a toss-up imo really)

Sleeper #2:  Loras (not quite deserving imo based on RvR but even more than STU a tough name to pass over with such cache)

West

21) Colorado Coll (one of last two in or last two out....#sleepless in Colorado Springs)


"Didn't see coming picks" -- ECSU, Rose-Hulman, Covenant

Not surprised if we see picks -- Ramapo, Mt Union, Otterbein, Haverford, St Thomas, Roanoke, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton


Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 07:15:20 PM
I expected Clarkson's SoS to jump more than indicated in the D3soccer posted chart based on the trio of Ithaca, RPI and Hobart.  I was guessing a rise to .570 or .580 instead of the listed .551.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 10, 2019, 08:11:10 PM
Shooter's Pool C Predictions
1. Amherst
2. F&M
3. RPI
4. Conn
5. CNU
6. OWU
7. Central
8. Williams
9. Rowan
10. ONU
11. Getty
12. Rochester
13. Kalamazoo
14. Swat
15. Middlebury
16. Hope
17. WPI
18. Otterbein
19. Trinity
20. Loras
21. Brandeis/Lycoming/Clarkson/Wheaton (Ill)/Haverford/Ithaca/Colorado

NE: 5
East: 2
MA: 4
SA: 2
GL: 3
Cen: 2
North: 2
West: 1

Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 10, 2019, 08:25:37 PM
Can't see St. Thomas getting in with 0 ranked wins. Not even on my radar to get selected but I guess we will find out tomorrow!  ;D
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: discnerd on November 10, 2019, 10:43:44 PM
Not worrying about which teams cause I have too much grading to do.  But here is my top 64 teams.  Invariably, some AQs are ranked below that cutoff and geographic restrictions get in the way of others.  Have fun picking!


RankingTeamRatingConference
1
Johns Hopkins
7.274983
CC
2
Mary Washington
6.404937
CAC
3
Christopher Newport
6.325505
CAC
4
Franklin and Marshall
6.058318
CC
5
Washington and Lee
5.861226
ODAC
6
Amherst
5.501767
NESCAC
7
Calvin
5.199598
MIAA
8
Tufts
4.758455
NESCAC
9
Oneonta State
4.453158
SUNYAC
10
Messiah
4.320247
MACC
11
Catholic
4.099097
LAND
12
Chicago
3.762664
UAA
13
Oglethorpe
3.74774
SAA
14
Gustavus Adolphus
3.743559
MIAC
15
Montclair State
3.642345
NJAC
16
Roanoke
3.604485
ODAC
17
Connecticut College
3.470335
NESCAC
18
Centre
3.367097
SAA
19
Covenant
3.305011
USAC
20
Kenyon
3.293775
NCAC
21
RPI
3.273092
LL
22
Middlebury
3.271638
NESCAC
23
Luther
3.254263
ARC
24
Ohio Wesleyan
3.177396
NCAC
25
Gettysburg
3.162307
CC
26
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
3.116905
SCIAC
27
Eastern Connecticut
3.067903
LEC
28
Hobart
3.065598
LL
29
Rowan
3.020557
NJAC
30
Haverford
2.991523
CC
31
North Park
2.965349
CCIW
32
Babson
2.905477
NEWMAC
33
Williams
2.82497
NESCAC
34
Texas-Dallas
2.744419
ASC
35
John Carroll
2.74405
OAC
36
Rutgers-Camden
2.738131
NJAC
37
Loras
2.688357
ARC
38
St. Mary's (Md.)
2.687594
CAC
39
Swarthmore
2.626722
CC
40
Ramapo
2.61043
NJAC
41
Dickinson
2.58952
CC
42
Stockton
2.577122
NJAC
43
St. Thomas
2.538851
MIAC
44
Buffalo State
2.520615
SUNYAC
45
Ithaca
2.439258
LL
46
Texas Lutheran
2.403701
SCAC
47
Lynchburg
2.39488
ODAC
48
Brandeis
2.392352
UAA
49
WPI
2.319292
NEWMAC
50
Salisbury
2.306771
CAC
51
Lycoming
2.272534
MACC
52
Muhlenberg
2.220837
CC
53
Colorado College
2.193662
SCAC
54
Hope
2.144634
MIAA
55
Wheaton (Ill.)
2.138748
CCIW
56
Trinity (Texas)
2.120328
SCAC
57
Cortland State
2.118712
SUNYAC
58
Clarkson
2.086891
LL
59
York (Pa.)
2.081022
CAC
60
Hardin-Simmons
2.08095
ASC
61
Otterbein
2.022242
OAC
62
North Carolina Wesleyan
2.005021
USAC
63
Pacific Lutheran
1.965622
NWC
64
TCNJ
1.946055
NJAC



Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 11, 2019, 09:31:12 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 11:11:53 AM
PaulNewman Pool C Predictions
...
(Anybody notice that Trinity lost in SCAC semis?  On paper that would appear to end the Tigers' long consecutive NCAA run)


Yes.  After playing the sophomore keeper in the first round who hadn't allowed a goal all season (in admittedly limited time; 2 starts, 6 total appearances, 10 shots faced in 344 minutes), Trinity went back to the guy who only stopped 60% of shots faced this year.  Sure enough, he stopped 60% on Saturday, allowing 2 goals on 5 SOG.   

Their women also lost (for the first time in 130+ conference games) on Sunday, so it's possible Trinity(TX) won't have any representation in the soccer playoffs for the first time since last century (tho I think the women's resume is much better than the men's). 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:09:05 AM
MAF Pool C Projections
1. F&M
2. Amherst
3. RPI
4. Conn Coll
5. OWU
6. CNU
7. Rowan
8. ONU
9. Williams
10. Gettysburg
11. Central
12. Kalamazoo
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Swat
16. Hope
17. WPI
18. Loras
19. Otterbein
20. Colorado
21. Lycoming
-------------------------------
22. Brandeis
23. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is ahead of the other in region)
24. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is behind the other in region)
25. Haverford
26. North Central (Ill)
27. Oglethorpe
28. Wheaton (Ill)
29. Mt. Union
30. Trinity (Tx)
31. St. Thomas
32. Dickinson
33. Ramapo/Roanoke

Slots #18 thru #30 are a complete toss up as I can see any of those teams battling for the last 4 places of #18-#21.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D  Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 11:12:51 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D

He may be confusing the two North Centrals. There's a North Central in Minnesota that plays in the UMAC and is in the North Region. And there's a North Central in Illinois that plays in the CCIW and is in the Central Region. The Minnesota team (the Rams) is a terrible team in a subpar league: 3-15, 1-7, while the Illinoisan North Central (the Cardinals) are quite solid -- they finished second in the CCIW but bowed out in the semifinals of the CCIW tourney on PKs, and are currently fifth in the region at 11-5-3, 6-2.

Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 11:16:45 AM
What a weird year that a 7-loss team and two teams that won less than half their games are not only expected to be selected, but "comfortably" so (i.e. not on the bubble).  Is this year going to be an anomaly, or will the parity (and maybe inconsistency/mediocrity) that we are seeing continue to give us these types of scenarios for the next couple years or even longer? 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 12:00:37 PM
I don't think that the quality of play in D3 men's soccer has gone down at all, at least from what I've seen. Parity? Sure. It's obvious that more schools are focusing on the sport and are making a concerted effort to get better at it, rather than simply fielding a team for admissions purposes. That's a good thing; it's part of a sport's growth at the collegiate level, and it's what we should expect given the increasing prominence of soccer in American sports culture.

The downside for some of the traditional powers is that it means that the members of the old boys club that has dominated D3 men's soccer from time immemorial will as time goes on take more losses and draws from interlopers that lack the pedigree. Believe it or not, that's a good thing, too. There are 419 schools that play D3 men's soccer, and the more of those 419 that can challenge a Tufts or an Ohio Wesleyan or a Wheaton (IL) or a Messiah or a Calvin, the better. I say, good on you, Central, Lycoming, Oglethorpe, Covenant, Texas Lutheran, Hampden-Sydney, and North Central (IL) -- you guys are the vanguard of a lot more no-names to follow.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 12:23:58 PM
I do think you can make a case for increased inconsistency, which is partially a by-product of increased parity as you can't get away with an off day as much as before.  I've never seen a year in which so many teams have so many "contradictory" results on their resume. 

The issue of mediocrity was intended much more as a question.  For me personally, though, it seems like a down year across the board.  Just my personal opinion.  Just because the long-term trend is on of rising quality (which I think is the case), doesn't mean there aren't ebbs and flows that make some years weaker/stronger than others.  We see this and acknowledge this on the conference level.

And I'm not bemoaning parity or saying it's a bad thing.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 12:41:42 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D  Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 12:47:15 PM
Not looking to the women's side of things in regards to hosts, but what are we thinking for top 4 seeds? And other "seeds" after that?

Hopkins
Tufts
Calvin
John Carroll
------------------------
Amherst
F&M
RPI
W&L
------------------------
Messiah
Kenyon
Mary Wash
Chicago/Luther
------------------------
Luther/Chicago
Centre
Conn Coll
Claremont MS/Hobart


Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 12:50:39 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 12:41:42 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D  Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!

Rowan is going to be 4-2-2 RvR if Montclair gets ranked in the final rankings and if not then they will be 3-1-2 RvR. Strong SOS and that RvR will easily see them into a Pool C berth.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 12:53:23 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 12:23:58 PM
I do think you can make a case for increased inconsistency, which is partially a by-product of increased parity as you can't get away with an off day as much as before.

Fair point.

Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 12:23:58 PMThe issue of mediocrity was intended much more as a question.  For me personally, though, it seems like a down year across the board.  Just my personal opinion.  Just because the long-term trend is on of rising quality (which I think is the case), doesn't mean there aren't ebbs and flows that make some years weaker/stronger than others.  We see this and acknowledge this on the conference level.

I guess that I just don't see that. I think that it's quite possible that the top tier isn't any better than it's been over the past season or two, and it may even be down a bit. But the mass of teams that constitutes the overall population of D3 seems to me to be getting better. On the one hand you can argue that it makes this season a more mediocre one, because that's what "mediocre" literally means -- trending to the middle, although it's usually just meant to convey the idea that the top moved downward. But if the middle is growing bigger, it's also because the bad teams are getting better. And you measure a season's caliber by the entire 419, not just by the upper echelon.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:02:43 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 11:12:51 AM


Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.

Trying to keep first round opponents from playing one another is fairly impossible with these GL/Central teams.  And with Chicago and NP you have 5 very deserving teams vying for hosting.  I do think OWU and or ONU could be sent to Chicago or Calvin, but since both played Calvin during the year I didn't think they'd have a first round game up there. Chicago is a strong possibility for a couple GL teams if Calvin or Kenyon don't host.  Otterbein and Cap went to Chicago in 2017.

If Calvin hosts their bracket might include Hanover, North Central (IL), OWU/ONU - or Kenyon if they don't host?

One of these schools won't be hosting  . . .
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:08:43 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 12:50:39 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 12:41:42 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 AM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D  Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!

Rowan is going to be 4-2-2 RvR if Montclair gets ranked in the final rankings and if not then they will be 3-1-2 RvR. Strong SOS and that RvR will easily see them into a Pool C berth.

I see they pick up a RvR for Ramapo but where is the 3rd ranked win coming from since week 3?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 01:14:11 PM
Wins over NP, Cortland and Ramapo. Ties with Haverford and Chicago. Loss to Ramapo.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:16:33 PM
Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:02:43 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 11:12:51 AM


Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 09:57:33 AM
Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.

Trying to keep first round opponents from playing one another is fairly impossible with these GL/Central teams.  And with Chicago and NP you have 5 very deserving teams vying for hosting.

Yeah, I'll come clean: I've got my fingers crossed that NPU gets to host, since it seems to me that the Vikings are probably third in line among the Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa group of teams behind Chicago and Luther. But I'm not just making that stuff up about Calvin being just as viable a candidate to host teams from east of Grand Rapids as it is to host teams from the other side of Lake Michigan. Two years ago Calvin was sent to John Carroll. Three years ago Calvin was sent to Carnegie Mellon. Four years ago Calvin was sent to Ohio Wesleyan, and five years ago the Knights played host to a pod that also included Ohio Wesleyan, Rose-Hulman and PSU-Behrend. So the trend actually favors the Knights getting paired with Great Lakes teams.

Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:02:43 PMI do think OWU and or ONU could be sent to Chicago or Calvin, but since both played Calvin during the year I didn't think they'd have a first round game up there. Chicago is a strong possibility for a couple GL teams if Calvin or Kenyon don't host.  Otterbein and Cap went to Chicago in 2017.

Yes, that possibility exists. But it actually enhances NPU's chances of hosting, because it would mean that some other location would have to soak up the surplus of Central and North teams. Heck, NPU could even host the same Great Lakes teams that you're mentioning with regard to a Maroons-hosted pod.

Quote from: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:02:43 PMIf Calvin hosts their bracket might include Hanover, North Central (IL), OWU/ONU - or Kenyon if they don't host?

One of these schools won't be hosting  . . .

Yep and yep. ;)

Well find out fifteen minutes from now ...
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:20:01 PM
I'll also come clean that I'm almost as excited by the thought of calling PBP for D3 tourney games at NPU's Hedstrand Field next weekend as I am by the thought of NPU getting to host rather than having to go on the road.

Almost. ;)
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 01:23:09 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 01:14:11 PM
Wins over NP, Cortland and Ramapo. Ties with Haverford and Chicago. Loss to Ramapo.
Interesting the third data sheet has their RvR at 1-1-2
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:44:21 PM
Yes! NPU hosts!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: jknezek on November 11, 2019, 01:47:17 PM
Both Roanoke and Ogelthorpe get in from South Atlantic. Surprised about that.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 01:54:34 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 10, 2019, 08:11:10 PM
Shooter's Pool C Predictions
1. Amherst
2. F&M
3. RPI
4. Conn
5. CNU
6. OWU
7. Central

8. Williams
9. Rowan
10. ONU
11. Getty

12. Rochester
13. Kalamazoo
14. Swat
15. Middlebury
16. Hope
17. WPI

18. Otterbein
19. Trinity
20. Loras
21. Brandeis/Lycoming/Clarkson/Wheaton (Ill)/Haverford/Ithaca/Colorado

NE: 5
East: 2
MA: 4
SA: 2
GL: 3
Cen: 2
North: 2
West: 1

17/21  :D
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:57:51 PM
Chicago's women are hosting a pod, which is why the male Maroons have to go on the road. I didn't see that coming, because the U of C women were only ranked third in the region last week.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 01:59:36 PM
Surprise of the day: Hope not only got in as an at-large, but the Flying Dutch are actually hosting a pod.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Domino1195 on November 11, 2019, 02:02:23 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 11, 2019, 01:47:17 PM
Both Roanoke and Ogelthorpe get in from South Atlantic. Surprised about that.
I did have Roanoke on the bubble but I thought their SOS was too low versus other candidates.

I wavered on K'zoo and Hope - kept switching back and forth - but I DID NOT see Hope hosting!  But my three biggest swing-and misses:  No way Trinity over Swarthmore or Haverford - no way.  Clarkson's SOS - I thought would have increased enough this week to go with a good RvR - need to see the data sheets.  WPI I didn't consider because of RvR - splitting hairs with last teams in.  Trinity sends a bad message to teams who play ranked opponents AND gets results . . .
WPI11-2-41-1-30.57611-2-4
Trinity (TX)9-4-20-3-10.59110-5-2
Roanoke13-1-31-0-20.54314-1-3
Haverford9-5-32-3-20.6249-5-3
Swarthmore11-3-32-3-10.59311-3-3
Clarkson10-4-33-1-20.52710-4-3

Edit - sorry - missed Swat selection - but substitute Williams for Swat in the rant!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 11, 2019, 02:07:05 PM
Trinity (TX) not only gets a bid they don't deserve, but get to host this weekend.   I don't get it. 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 02:20:58 PM
I know we get told over and over again that geography/travel/bracketing does NOT factor into at-large selections (and it isn't supposed to according to the Manual), but the committees, men's and women's, just keep giving the cynics reason to remain cynics, because a great majority of the real head scratchers involve someone from the West getting in when they didn't seem to deserve it or not getting in when it seemed they did.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: FelixCloudy on November 11, 2019, 02:29:23 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 02:20:58 PM
I know we get told over and over again that geography/travel/bracketing does NOT factor into at-large selections (and it isn't supposed to according to the Manual), but the committees, men's and women's, just keep giving the cynics reason to remain cynics, because a great majority of the real head scratchers involve someone from the West getting in when they didn't seem to deserve it or not getting in when it seemed they did.

Amen!  So mad I bothered to try to understand the at large bid system.  However, I am told it will become clear once the final rankings are released.  Hope so - cause right now I would say that teams that play very hard schedules will not be doing that in the future as much. 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: blooter442 on November 11, 2019, 02:30:50 PM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 11, 2019, 02:07:05 PM
Trinity (TX) not only gets a bid they don't deserve, but get to host this weekend.   I don't get it.

Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 11, 2019, 02:20:58 PM
I know we get told over and over again that geography/travel/bracketing does NOT factor into at-large selections (and it isn't supposed to according to the Manual), but the committees, men's and women's, just keep giving the cynics reason to remain cynics, because a great majority of the real head scratchers involve someone from the West getting in when they didn't seem to deserve it or not getting in when it seemed they did.

Narrator: It was geography.

Looking at the first weekend, that Messiah pod should be a lot of fun. While I think Oneonta will ultimately end up facing Messiah on Sunday, I think Babson will give the Red Dragons a real run for their money. As for hypothetical 2nd Round matches, would also be intrigued to see Tufts-WPI and Rochester-Kenyon.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 02:34:01 PM
FW, to which specific West Region team do you allude when saying it got a Pool C berth that didn't deserve it, and whom do you feel that it knocked out? Are you alluding to Trinity (TX) or to Colorado College, or to both?

I'll admit that I'm surprised that they both got bids.

Quote from: FelixCloudy on November 11, 2019, 02:29:23 PMHowever, I am told it will become clear once the final rankings are released.  Hope so - cause right now I would say that teams that play very hard schedules will not be doing that in the future as much. 

That should be interesting reading, indeed.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: FelixCloudy on November 11, 2019, 02:35:42 PM
Quote from: blooter442 on November 11, 2019, 02:30:50 PM
Narrator: It was geography.

LOL... Exactly what I asked in the first place!!!  Totally got played... ::)
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: susanc on November 11, 2019, 02:37:13 PM
Here's a pod that makes little sense:

North Park - Host
Pacific Lutheran (Washington)

Colorado College
Gustavus Adolphus (Minnesota)

Gustavus has been receiving votes on and off on D3 site rankings and is forced to play a mid 20's ranked team first round.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: D3Grad on November 11, 2019, 02:41:36 PM
Unfortunate but ultimately self made for UST to not make the playoffs.  I am curious with even 1 win out of all those ranked matchups do they get a bid given the choices of today?  A learning lesson for UST to make sure to get a result in all games next year as it is to be the final D3 season.  Interesting the MIAC got 3 bids last year (a bit undeserved) and zero this year.  The ebb and flow of the conference makes it hard for teams to get ranked wins vs conference opponents.  Typically Macalester and Carleton receive regional rankings aiding the cause.  Good luck to Gustavus and hope they represent the conference well. 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 02:42:57 PM
Thing is, though, I don't see how this helps the tournament budget. There are typically two flights needed for the bracket's first weekend when the West Region pod is held in Texas. That's been the case in seven of the last eight tournaments. But this year there are three flights needed: one for Pacific Lutheran to get to NPU, one for Colorado College to get to NPU, and one for CMS to get to Trinity (TX).

In other words, giving another Pool C berth to a West Region team actually costs the tourney extra money this year.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 02:43:48 PM
Quote from: susanc on November 11, 2019, 02:37:13 PM
Here's a pod that makes little sense:

North Park - Host
Pacific Lutheran (Washington)

Colorado College
Gustavus Adolphus (Minnesota)

Gustavus has been receiving votes on and off on D3 site rankings and is forced to play a mid 20's ranked team first round.

The d3soccer.com poll has absolutely no bearing whatsoever upon Pool C selections.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 02:48:02 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 02:34:01 PM
FW, to which specific West Region team do you allude when saying it got a Pool C berth that didn't deserve it, and whom do you feel that it knocked out? Are you alluding to Trinity (TX) or to Colorado College, or to both?

I'll admit that I'm surprised that they both got bids.

Quote from: FelixCloudy on November 11, 2019, 02:29:23 PMHowever, I am told it will become clear once the final rankings are released.  Hope so - cause right now I would say that teams that play very hard schedules will not be doing that in the future as much. 

That should be interesting reading, indeed.

I actually had Trinity getting in BUT I did not see them getting in over Williams or Otterbein and heck even though I had Loras and Lycoming in right after them I would have called all 3 of them to be equal. Even Brandeis as well but I am guessing Brandeis never even got a chance to come off the board. I also didn't expect Roanoke or Oglethorpe to get bids. I am not surprised by Oglethorpe as maybe I overlooked them due to the low SOS but to have both those teams get in is a shock to me. I think looking back and over the bracket that if 2/4 of Trinity, Colorado, Oglethorpe, and Roanoke got in no one blinks an eye but all 4 getting in certainly doesn't feel good to me.     
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 02:53:56 PM
Yeah, I agree that there are a whole bunch of Pool C surprises this time around. But the geography rationale that is put forth to try to explain puzzling committee choices for Pool C doesn't hold water this year. As I said, the committee is springing for one more flight this year than usual. In other words, this is a bracket that costs extra money because of the Pool C choices that were made.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: blooter442 on November 11, 2019, 03:06:56 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 11, 2019, 02:48:02 PM
Even Brandeis as well but I am guessing Brandeis never even got a chance to come off the board.

Yeah, I'm a 'Deis booster but I never had them getting in. Too few ranked wins and too many blemishes. The ties killed them, as did that 0-2 UAA weekend (even if the Rochester loss was a bit unfortunate given the shot margin of 23-9 including two clearances off the line, but you have to finish).

Their UAA foe Yellowjackets, for their part, also had a high number of blemishes, but — unlike other years where they have questionably snuck in with records like 9-4-3 (2012) — I had them in this year; they had the ranked wins (and minimal ties). I don't see them getting to the Final 4 again, but I think (assuming both they and Kenyon get through Saturday) they'll give the Lords a very good game on Sunday.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2019, 03:54:20 PM
18/21 for me....I had a feeling about Roanoke, and I always knew Clarkson might not get in over Ithaca even though very similar profiles and a 2-0-0 H2H advantage imo should have been enough to overtake a careening Ithaca side.  North Central may have suffered just from few even knowing anything about them.  They were left out of the D3soccer predictions discussion totally and Domino put them in but in a different region.  Not much between those middle of the pack Central region squads.

And Trinity...wow!  And NOT Williams.  Did not see Williams getting left out at all.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Christan Shirk on November 11, 2019, 04:14:34 PM
NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Amherst
14-1-2
0.585
4-1-2
14-1-2
1
2.
Tufts
14-2-2
0.610
8-2-0
14-2-2
2
3.
Connecticut College
10-3-3
0.604
3-3-3
10-3-3
3
4.
Babson
14-5-2
0.568
3-5-1
14-5-2
7
5.
WPI
12-3-4
0.584
2-2-3
12-3-4
5
6.
Middlebury
8-3-7
0.630
2-3-4
8-3-7
6
7.
Williams
8-4-5
0.590
3-4-2
8-4-5
4
8.
Brandeis
10-5-4
0.582
1-4-1
10-5-4
8
9.
Eastern Connecticut
17-3-0
0.518
3-2-0
17-3-0
11
10.
Keene State
15-6-0
0.554
1-3-0
15-6-0
12
11.
St. Joseph's (Maine)
16-2-3
0.514
1-1-0
16-2-3
--
12.
Endicott
12-6-2
0.555
1-4-0
12-6-2
9

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
RPI
14-2-3
0.580
6-2-2
14-2-3
1
2.
Rochester
11-5-1
0.571
4-3-0
11-5-1
3
3.
Hobart
14-4-2
0.562
5-3-1
14-4-2
4
4.
Ithaca
12-5-2
0.564
3-3-1
12-5-2
2
5.
Oneonta State
17-2-0
0.557
4-1-0
17-2-0
6
6.
Vassar
9-6-2
0.582
2-3-0
9-7-2
5
7.
Clarkson
11-5-4
0.556
4-2-3
11-5-4
8
8.
Plattsburgh State
11-8-0
0.585
1-6-0
11-8-0
--

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Johns Hopkins
16-2-1
0.627
6-2-1
16-2-1
1
2.
Franklin and Marshall
16-3-0
0.611
6-2-0
16-3-0
2
3.
Messiah
16-2-2
0.579
5-2-0
16-2-2
3
4.
Swarthmore
11-3-3
0.589
2-3-1
11-3-3
4
5.
Gettysburg
11-7-1
0.629
4-5-1
11-7-1
6
6.
Catholic
18-2-1
0.542
4-1-1
18-2-1
7
7.
Dickinson
10-8-0
0.631
4-7-0
10-8-0
8
8.
Haverford
9-6-3
0.621
2-4-2
9-6-3
5
9.
Lycoming
13-7-0
0.580
1-5-0
13-7-0
9
10.
Elizabethtown
11-6-2
0.582
1-5-0
11-6-2
10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Washington and Lee
15-2-3
0.594
4-1-2
15-2-3
1
2.
Mary Washington
13-3-4
0.636
2-2-3
13-3-4
3
3.
Christopher Newport
13-2-4
0.603
2-2-3
13-2-4
2
4.
Rowan
11-5-3
0.621
3-1-2
11-5-3
6
5.
Centre
16-3-1
0.577
3-3-0
16-3-1
4
6.
Roanoke
13-2-3
0.555
1-1-2
14-2-3
7
7.
Oglethorpe
14-4-0
0.567
2-3-0
14-4-0
8
8.
Ramapo
11-2-5
0.581
1-1-0
11-2-5
5
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Christan Shirk on November 11, 2019, 04:15:29 PM
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
John Carroll
17-2-2
0.600
6-2-1
17-2-2
1
2.
Kenyon
15-1-2
0.573
4-1-1
17-1-2
2
3.
Ohio Wesleyan
13-5-3
0.596
5-4-2
13-5-3
3
4.
Ohio Northern
12-6-2
0.597
4-4-1
13-6-2
4
5.
Otterbein
13-7-0
0.578
3-6-0
13-7-0
6
6.
Hanover
12-6-2
0.542
2-3-0
12-5-2
7
7.
Mount Union
10-4-5
0.551
2-2-2
10-4-5
5
8.
Capital
8-5-5
0.560
1-3-3
8-5-5
8

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Calvin
18-1-1
0.574
4-1-1
19-1-1
1
2.
Chicago
11-1-5
0.633
5-1-3
11-1-5
2
3.
North Park
15-4-1
0.605
2-3-1
15-4-1
3
4.
Hope
14-5-1
0.589
2-4-1
14-5-1
7
5.
Kalamazoo
10-4-2
0.573
3-3-0
11-4-2
4
6.
Wheaton (Ill.)
10-4-4
0.597
1-3-2
10-4-4
6
7.
North Central (Ill.)
11-5-3
0.577
2-2-0
11-5-3
5

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Luther
15-4-1
0.602
4-2-0
16-4-1
1
2.
Central
14-3-2
0.569
3-1-1
14-3-2
2
3.
St. Thomas
12-4-3
0.598
0-4-2
12-4-3
3
4.
Loras
15-6-1
0.598
1-5-0
15-6-1
4
5.
Gustavus Adolphus
17-3-0
0.545
2-1-0
17-3-0
5
6.
St. Norbert
16-4-2
0.549
3-1-0
16-4-2
6
7.
Knox
15-4-2
0.543
1-3-1
15-4-2
7

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
14-3-2
0.570
3-2-2
14-3-2
1
2.
Colorado College
10-6-0
0.576
3-4-0
14-6-0
2
3.
Trinity (Texas)
10-5-2
0.595
3-4-1
11-6-2
3
4.
Texas-Dallas
16-3-2
0.513
2-1-0
17-3-2
4
5.
Hardin-Simmons
12-3-2
0.503
2-1-0
14-3-2
5
6.
Texas Lutheran
12-5-0
0.525
3-3-0
15-5-0
--
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Christan Shirk on November 11, 2019, 10:49:47 PM
I have gotten some insight into some of the surprising selections for pod hosts.

As has been mentioned/explained by others, the reason Amherst, Messiah, Chicago and Johns Hopkins are not hosting the pods in which they are the top seed is because their women's teams are also the top seed in their pods, and following the alternating hosting priority schedule, the women have hosting priority. No big news there.

In past years, as long as geography didn't point the committee in a different direction, the second seed in the pod would typically be chosen to host in these situations. This brought on consistent feedback that when the top two seeds advanced to the second round as expected, it was unfair that the top seed that had earned the right to host, not only didn't get to host, but now had to play at the home of a potentially very strong second round opponent. In other words, the strongest challenger to the top seed advancing to the Sweet 16 was being given the advantage it hadn't earned to use against the team that actually deserved it.

In response to this feedback, the committee this year selected the third seeds in these pod to host, thus making the likely second round match a neutral game.  That doesn't completely make up for the lost hosting advantage, but at least it doesn't hand that advantage to their more likely second round opponent.  This is why Keene State, Oneonta State, Hope and Catholic are hosting pods.


My initial thoughts/observations are as follows:
• In general and on first thought, this seems like a sensible thing to do.  It's nice to try not to penalize a team just because their women's team is also extremely good.
• The strongest challenger in a pod may not actually be who the NCAA's selection criteria says it is.  The third seed by their criteria might actual be the top seeds' biggest threat, so this approach might now always be the better for the top seed. For example, opinion may vary on whether third seed Oneonta State or second seed Babson is the better team and the team with the better chance to stop Messiah from advancing.
• In strong pods with three relatively strong teams, this doesn't make much or any difference for the top seed.  However, it now unfairly helps the third seed have a better chance against the second seed in round one.  Since this is about fairness, is it fair that Ohio Wesleyan has to play at host Hope to open the tournament?  Is it fair that Catholic's chances of advancing got such an unearned/undeserved boost?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 11, 2019, 10:58:22 PM
The hosting decisions are all perfectly understandable, but they do have an impact.

When I first looked at the draw I suggested that Chicago had a good one in part because of assuming they would be at home.  It is an interesting outcome, as well.  Chicago and Hope played at Hope this season, with Chicago narrowly winning 3-2.  Hope will obviously be comfortable.  And OWU ,at least as a program if not some of the current players, has experience and positive experience with the Hope soccer complex.  The video quality at Hope is great, too.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: d4_Pace on November 11, 2019, 11:03:19 PM
What I don't understand is if a school has multiple fields why men and women can't both host. Amherst men and women play at home on the same weekend all the time with no issue. Each has there own field as well as an additional warmup field. The women hosting would have no impact on the men's games.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Middlebury Dad on November 12, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
The issue is logistics.  You would now need hotels and locker rooms for 6 visiting teams and not just 2.  Also, for many schools, the athletic department staff would be stretched too thin to accommodate hosting both men's and women's simultaneously.  Like many things with the NCAA, flexibility is now out the window in the name of consistent policy  ;-)
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: gustiefan04 on November 12, 2019, 08:54:06 AM
I also suspect MOST D3 schools do not have separate fields for men's and women's soccer, like described at Amherst. In the Midwest it's pretty common that the two share the same game field.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 12, 2019, 10:36:21 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 10:09:05 AM
MAF Pool C Projections
1. F&M
2. Amherst
3. RPI
4. Conn Coll
5. OWU
6. CNU
7. Rowan
8. ONU

9. Williams
10. Gettysburg
11. Central
12. Kalamazoo
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Swat
16. Hope
17. WPI

18. Loras
19. Otterbein
20. Colorado
21. Lycoming
-------------------------------
22. Brandeis
23. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is ahead of the other in region)
24. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is behind the other in region)
25. Haverford
26. North Central (Ill)
27. Oglethorpe
28. Wheaton (Ill)
29. Mt. Union
30. Trinity (Tx)
31. St. Thomas
32. Dickinson
33. Ramapo/Roanoke

Slots #18 thru #30 are a complete toss up as I can see any of those teams battling for the last 4 places of #18-#21.

17/21 (as mentioned 18-30 were toss ups  ;) )  Trinity getting to 3 ranked wins makes more sense now. Still perplexed that Otterbein got left out.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 01:19:57 PM
Quote from: d4_Pace on November 11, 2019, 11:03:19 PM
What I don't understand is if a school has multiple fields why men and women can't both host. Amherst men and women play at home on the same weekend all the time with no issue. Each has there own field as well as an additional warmup field. The women hosting would have no impact on the men's games.

Quote from: Middlebury Dad on November 12, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
The issue is logistics.  You would now need hotels and locker rooms for 6 visiting teams and not just 2.  Also, for many schools, the athletic department staff would be stretched too thin to accommodate hosting both men's and women's simultaneously.  Like many things with the NCAA, flexibility is now out the window in the name of consistent policy  ;-)

Plus, Chicago is also hosting a pod in the D3 women's volleyball tournament next weekend, and hosting a football game.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: d4_Pace on November 12, 2019, 01:59:33 PM
I understand in Chicago's situation that maybe they were stretched too thin. But just because some schools can't pull it off doesn't mean others should be punished. If Amherst felt capable of hosting both they should have been given that opportunity.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Falconer on November 12, 2019, 02:05:19 PM
Quote from: gustiefan04 on November 12, 2019, 08:54:06 AM
I also suspect MOST D3 schools do not have separate fields for men’s and women’s soccer, like described at Amherst. In the Midwest it’s pretty common that the two share the same game field.
Messiah's teams share the same large grass field, which most teams regard as being of very high quality. I almost never overhear a complaint about the pitch. I think there was a recent year in which the women got a first-round bye and ended up playing at home along with the men, but I may have some wires crossed in my brain. FW will straighten me out if that's the case.  ::)

Most D3 schools aren't nearly as wealthy as Amherst; they have one single soccer pitch, which might or might not be of high quality. For fairness' sake, I support the current policy, even though it means that most years one of my teams doesn't get to benefit from the higher seeding they earned. It shouldn't be the case that only those schools with enough resources to have two soccer pitches get to have both of their teams play at home the same weekend(s).

On the other hand, I would support a policy that favored top-quality grass fields over turf fields (regardless of quality), and higher quality turf over bad grass or turf. At one point, didn't the NCAA have a policy favoring larger grass surfaces over all others? If so, what happened to that policy--or is it still in effect? Obviously I'm sounding like the homer I am, since Messiah's field is very high quality grass, but lots of other colleges have similar fields. I am just a stickler for playing soccer on grass, and not on a very small field either. As Dick Allen used to say, if a cow can't eat it, I don't want to play on it!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 02:13:34 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 01:19:57 PM
Quote from: d4_Pace on November 11, 2019, 11:03:19 PM
What I don't understand is if a school has multiple fields why men and women can't both host. Amherst men and women play at home on the same weekend all the time with no issue. Each has there own field as well as an additional warmup field. The women hosting would have no impact on the men's games.

Quote from: Middlebury Dad on November 12, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
The issue is logistics.  You would now need hotels and locker rooms for 6 visiting teams and not just 2.  Also, for many schools, the athletic department staff would be stretched too thin to accommodate hosting both men's and women's simultaneously.  Like many things with the NCAA, flexibility is now out the window in the name of consistent policy  ;-)

Plus, Chicago is also hosting a pod in the D3 women's volleyball tournament next weekend, and hosting a football game.

Well, while we're tooting horns, in addition to MSOC and WSOC (hence Catholic hosting in that pod on the men's side), the volleyball team completed an undefeated season in taking the CC, and the field hockey team will host their second round game on Nov. 16 after beating F&M in the finals on Sunday.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 02:56:18 PM
Quote from: Falconer on November 12, 2019, 02:05:19 PM
Quote from: gustiefan04 on November 12, 2019, 08:54:06 AM
I also suspect MOST D3 schools do not have separate fields for men's and women's soccer, like described at Amherst. In the Midwest it's pretty common that the two share the same game field.
Messiah's teams share the same large grass field, which most teams regard as being of very high quality. I almost never overhear a complaint about the pitch. I think there was a recent year in which the women got a first-round bye and ended up playing at home along with the men, but I may have some wires crossed in my brain. FW will straighten me out if that's the case.  ::)

Most D3 schools aren't nearly as wealthy as Amherst; they have one single soccer pitch, which might or might not be of high quality. For fairness' sake, I support the current policy, even though it means that most years one of my teams doesn't get to benefit from the higher seeding they earned. It shouldn't be the case that only those schools with enough resources to have two soccer pitches get to have both of their teams play at home the same weekend(s).

On the other hand, I would support a policy that favored top-quality grass fields over turf fields (regardless of quality), and higher quality turf over bad grass or turf. At one point, didn't the NCAA have a policy favoring larger grass surfaces over all others? If so, what happened to that policy--or is it still in effect? Obviously I'm sounding like the homer I am, since Messiah's field is very high quality grass, but lots of other colleges have similar fields. I am just a stickler for playing soccer on grass, and not on a very small field either. As Dick Allen used to say, if a cow can't eat it, I don't want to play on it!

Disagree. Most of the grass pitches I see out here in the Midwest are not in great shape -- especially at this time of year, and especially in a year like this in which there has already been a substantial snowfall and a couple of deep freezes.

Then again, I'm just as much of a homer as you, because NPU's Field Turf surface is only a couple of years old and has an outstanding drainage system. Every bounce that you get on that surface is a true one.

Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 02:13:34 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 01:19:57 PM
Quote from: d4_Pace on November 11, 2019, 11:03:19 PM
What I don't understand is if a school has multiple fields why men and women can't both host. Amherst men and women play at home on the same weekend all the time with no issue. Each has there own field as well as an additional warmup field. The women hosting would have no impact on the men's games.

Quote from: Middlebury Dad on November 12, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
The issue is logistics.  You would now need hotels and locker rooms for 6 visiting teams and not just 2.  Also, for many schools, the athletic department staff would be stretched too thin to accommodate hosting both men's and women's simultaneously.  Like many things with the NCAA, flexibility is now out the window in the name of consistent policy  ;-)

Plus, Chicago is also hosting a pod in the D3 women's volleyball tournament next weekend, and hosting a football game.

Well, while we're tooting horns, in addition to MSOC and WSOC (hence Catholic hosting in that pod on the men's side), the volleyball team completed an undefeated season in taking the CC, and the field hockey team will host their second round game on Nov. 16 after beating F&M in the finals on Sunday.

I'm not tooting horns. My school is NPU, not Chicago. I'm simply explaining why it was too difficult for Chicago to host a men's soccer pod this coming weekend.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 03:29:45 PM
*toot*
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:33:41 PM
Wealth aside, I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that Amherst has great fields.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 03:58:19 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:33:41 PM
Wealth aside, I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that Amherst has great fields.

Feel like I said it, but I was ill-informed at the time. ??? I will (generally) fess up to being wrong, and this is one of those cases!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 12, 2019, 04:31:58 PM
Messiah's grass field, from the video stream, looked to be in nice shape but many players in multiple games I watched this year were slipping and sliding all over. Even in the most recent match with Lycoming, players from both teams were falling or losing their footing and this was during a daytime game. Not sure how well it has held up without stepping foot onto it but the conditions always look slick at Messiah which isn't a good thing for players. Do any of the Messiah faithful know why it's so slick or seems to be this way from the computer screen?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Falconer on November 12, 2019, 04:40:51 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 12, 2019, 04:31:58 PM
Messiah's grass field, from the video stream, looked to be in nice shape but many players in multiple games I watched this year were slipping and sliding all over. Even in the most recent match with Lycoming, players from both teams were falling or losing their footing and this was during a daytime game. Not sure how well it has held up without stepping foot onto it but the conditions always look slick at Messiah which isn't a good thing for players. Do any of the Messiah faithful know why it's so slick or seems to be this way from the computer screen?
Messiah's field gets slick when dew condenses on it in cold weather. Bright sun usually eliminates this, even when very cold. Night games during October and November are the usual times this happens, but last Saturday vs Lycoming it was probably limited sunlight and temperature combined.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 04:45:51 PM
Well, I attended last year's second round match and I sure don't remember it being a significant issue. (Pretty sure I would've written about. I sure made note of the field conditions of a game I was watching earlier this season, as the grass was coming out in clumps AND it was WAY too high. Don't remember the game, but the point is that I always look at the quality of the pitch straight away.)

That said, the later you go in the year, the slicker the tight grass fields are going to get in this region. Last year's game was COLD and even in the bright sunlight, the field is going to retain moisture through the entire day. IOW, the dew still forms overnight, but the sun isn't strong enough to turn it back into vapor. This is particularly compounded if over the night time hours preceding you get frost.

/amateur groundskeeper
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 04:46:20 PM
GEEZ LOUISE. I make one quick edit and Falconer swoops in.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 04:50:45 PM
Etown was the field I was taking issue with, FWIW.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 04:46:20 PM
GEEZ LOUISE. I make one quick edit and Falconer swoops in.

Swooping in is what falcons do best. ;)
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 07:27:45 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
Swooping in is what falcons do best. ;)

Well played, +K (not that it moves the needle that much  ;))
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 07:27:45 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
Swooping in is what falcons do best. ;)

Well played, +K (not that it moves the needle that much  ;))

Hopkins92 should get a piece of that +k, since the Hopkins grad knew what he was saying when he used "Falconer swoops in."  At a minimum, a hockey assist.  Or put another way, Mr. Sager tapped in a ball already going in the net. 
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 07:40:22 PM
Quote from: RollToms on November 12, 2019, 07:21:03 PM
Quote from: D3Grad on November 11, 2019, 02:41:36 PM
Unfortunate but ultimately self made for UST to not make the playoffs.  I am curious with even 1 win out of all those ranked matchups do they get a bid given the choices of today?  A learning lesson for UST to make sure to get a result in all games next year as it is to be the final D3 season.  Interesting the MIAC got 3 bids last year (a bit undeserved) and zero this year.  The ebb and flow of the conference makes it hard for teams to get ranked wins vs conference opponents.  Typically Macalester and Carleton receive regional rankings aiding the cause.  Good luck to Gustavus and hope they represent the conference well.

Hearing that the decision for the final Pool C bid was made b/w Trinity and St. Thomas. Also hearing that what ended up pushing the committee towards Trinity was indeed the lack of a ranked win for UST. When you compare the two (below), UST's win % is significantly higher than Trinity's, UST's SoS is higher (marginally, but higher), but then you go to RvR and Trinity has 3 wins, UST has 0. Apparently no team has ever gotten a Pool C without a ranked win, and that trend continues this year.

I could take some flack for this, but I also believe that last year played a role in this years selection for Pool C's. The West region felt very hard done by last year, and I know they made some noise about it, particularly the fact that Claremont-Mudd-Scripps didn't get a Pool C when they had a strong case for one. I think the committee was slightly more favorable to the West as a result, hence both Colorado College and Trinity receiving Pool C's. This one was less credible, but I heard that, had UST had one ranked win, they would have gotten in ahead of Trinity.

At the end of the day, UST can really only look at themselves as despite recent legacy in the national tournament (9-3 record over last 3 years) and many other pluses to their body of work, like win % and SoS, they didn't take care of non-conference opponents early in the season and of course, did not win their AQ despite playing in the MIAC Championship game


Trinity (Texas)   10-5-2   0.595   3-4-1   11-6-2   3
St. Thomas   12-4-3   0.598   0-4-2   12-4-3   3

You underscored an important point.  The cmte could look at 0-4-2 more positively but assuming you are correct sounds like they never have done so.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.

Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:24:39 PM
-I think it is fair to say the committee is looking at the number of losses you are collecting against ranked teams now(Dickinson, Otterbein and Loras).
-The East region effectively blocked and tackled Clarkson out of the field by ranking a Vassar team in front of them that was never coming off the board. I do not care that Vassar beat them H2H as Clarkson's 4-2-3 RvR was plenty with a decent SOS....
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:26:25 PM
Side note----Amherst facilities/fields are some of the best in the country...It is the size of the field and the reasoning behind it that annoys most people.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:29:02 PM
Side Note #2----Having Men and Women both hosting NCAA fixtures at the same time used to happen all the time at Williams until that odd/even rule went into effect...If support staff / facilities could handle it then I am sure they can handle it now with an extra round of b*tching for dessert.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:30:10 PM
Quote from: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 07:27:45 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
Swooping in is what falcons do best. ;)

Well played, +K (not that it moves the needle that much  ;))

I'm clutching pearls over here, as I worded it that way for a reason. :D
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:30:48 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 07:27:45 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
Swooping in is what falcons do best. ;)

Well played, +K (not that it moves the needle that much  ;))

Hopkins92 should get a piece of that +k, since the Hopkins grad knew what he was saying when he used "Falconer swoops in."  At a minimum, a hockey assist.  Or put another way, Mr. Sager tapped in a ball already going in the net.

Ha!

All's good.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: susanc on November 12, 2019, 08:31:26 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. I was like a damn fairway at Augusta.

Last year Luther's grass field for the first pod was frozen solid and was basically unplayable but had to be played on. It is in a valley and had obviously frozen while the ground was super saturated. Some players wore indoor flats and got better traction. Turf seems preferable this late in the season.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 08:33:20 PM
Mr.Right, a little off topic but how would you rank the fields and overall facilities among the NESCACs?

I would guess that Midd is top 3....I remember going in the hockey arena when my kid went there to a hockey camp.  Blown away.  And I've heard that Colby is spending massive amounts of money on upgrades.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:41:18 PM
Fields:

Best Grass:

1. Williams
2. Bowdoin
3. Amherst-If he would go back to sensible width

Worst Grass:
Tie-Wesleyan / Bates / Conn grass fields

Best Turf:
1. Trinity
2. Colby

Worst Turf:
1. Midd



Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: blooter442 on November 12, 2019, 08:44:30 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:30:48 PM
Ha!

All's good.

Late in the day — my brain doesn't go for anything but low-hanging fruit at this hour. That said, you can have one too.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.
I'm proud to say that ALL of W&L's athletic facilities are either top notch or about to be. Both soccer fields were rebuilt to top tier specs in the mid 00s. With the current rebuilding of the gym and wrestling facilities currently in progress, and the recently finished natatorium, there will be almost no facilities that have not been completely rebuilt since about 2000 when the baseball field opened. The Duchosis Indoor Tennis Center, temporarily hosting basketball and wrestling, might be the oldest facility. And it is still one of the best indoor tennis centers in D3.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Middlebury Dad on November 12, 2019, 09:06:33 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:41:18 PM
Fields:

Best Grass:

1. Williams
2. Bowdoin
3. Amherst-If he would go back to sensible width

Worst Grass:
Tie-Wesleyan / Bates / Conn grass fields

Best Turf:
1. Trinity
2. Colby

Worst Turf:
1. Midd
Agreed on worst turf.  And why would Amherst go to a wider field when it would reduce the effectiveness of the dreaded 50 yard flip throw on every restart?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 09:10:42 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.
I'm proud to say that ALL of W&L's athletic facilities are either top notch or about to be. Both soccer fields were rebuilt to top tier specs in the mid 00s. With the current rebuilding of the gym and wrestling facilities currently in progress, and the recently finished natatorium, there will be almost no facilities that have not been completely rebuilt since about 2000 when the baseball field opened. The Duchosis Indoor Tennis Center, temporarily hosting basketball and wrestling, might be the oldest facility. And it is still one of the best indoor tennis centers in D3.

I looked at W&L's facilities earlier today.  Very impressive.  Since I almost went to W&L but instead went to Davidson I've always considered those two peers rather than other D1s or other D3s (while sharing much in common with the New England and MidAtlantic and Midwest LACs).  I thought of that because W&L's and Davidson's facilities seem similar for schools of that size.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 09:14:23 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 09:10:42 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.
I'm proud to say that ALL of W&L's athletic facilities are either top notch or about to be. Both soccer fields were rebuilt to top tier specs in the mid 00s. With the current rebuilding of the gym and wrestling facilities currently in progress, and the recently finished natatorium, there will be almost no facilities that have not been completely rebuilt since about 2000 when the baseball field opened. The Duchosis Indoor Tennis Center, temporarily hosting basketball and wrestling, might be the oldest facility. And it is still one of the best indoor tennis centers in D3.

I looked at W&L's facilities earlier today.  Very impressive.  Since I almost went to W&L but instead went to Davidson I've always considered those two peers rather than other D1s or other D3s (while sharing much in common with the New England and MidAtlantic and Midwest LACs).  I thought of that because W&L's and Davidson's facilities seem similar for schools of that size.

W&L and Davidson were very much peers back in the day before the enforced split. They shared a conference for a while pre D3 and played football until the late 90s. If they hadn't stolen our football coach I would consider them one of my favorite D1 colleges!
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 12, 2019, 09:56:29 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 12, 2019, 08:29:02 PM
Side Note #2----Having Men and Women both hosting NCAA fixtures at the same time used to happen all the time at Williams until that odd/even rule went into effect...If support staff / facilities could handle it then I am sure they can handle it now with an extra round of b*tching for dessert.

... including hosting a home football game and a D3 women's volleyball pod on the same day, if not the same time, as well?
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: d4_Pace on November 12, 2019, 10:14:07 PM
Amherst also keeps the grass about 4 inches too long to slow down teams trying to play. Didn't affect them much when they were playing for flick ons from Orozco. Although I feel like this years team actually would have benefited from a faster surface and more space. Middlebury Turf is 100 years old but the field is massive.

Conn's field is a joke and Bates was as well when I played but I know they redid it this year to mixed results.

Trinity's new field is grass and one of the best surfaces in the league if not a tad small.

Tufts turf isn't soccer specific and still is lined for football, lacrosse, and field hockey which isn't great for a program with so much success.

Bowdoin and Willians are as good as you can hope for in New England.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: NokeAlum15 on November 13, 2019, 10:49:37 AM
Quote from: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.
I'm proud to say that ALL of W&L's athletic facilities are either top notch or about to be. Both soccer fields were rebuilt to top tier specs in the mid 00s. With the current rebuilding of the gym and wrestling facilities currently in progress, and the recently finished natatorium, there will be almost no facilities that have not been completely rebuilt since about 2000 when the baseball field opened. The Duchosis Indoor Tennis Center, temporarily hosting basketball and wrestling, might be the oldest facility. And it is still one of the best indoor tennis centers in D3.

I'm obviously biased here, but 45 minutes down I-81 south you'll see what Roanoke College has built in regards to athletic facilities.  I'd put it up against any D3 school in the nation. While I'm proud of what they've built, I'm also pissed I didn't get to enjoy facilities like that when I played 1999-2003.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: PaulNewman on November 13, 2019, 10:59:50 AM
The facilities arms race is an interesting topic especially given the competition among colleges, including at the top end and for those fighting for survival.  Among schools that do have resources, I'd be interested in what schools try to resist the facilities upgrade focus and might be more likely to build a new academic building.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: jknezek on November 13, 2019, 11:09:40 AM
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 13, 2019, 10:49:37 AM
Quote from: jknezek on November 12, 2019, 08:53:13 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 12, 2019, 08:21:09 PM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 12, 2019, 06:39:16 PM
I must say all the hosts this year with grass fields that I'm aware of have traditionally always been extremely well maintained (CNU, MWU, And W&L) so hopefully field conditions don't have an impact on the results this weekend. Messiahs field is okay, not as nice as the other three which have Short Bermuda grass. I'm just happy there isn't a team like Etown or Muhlenburg hosting whose field could definitely influence a result.

W&L's field is the best field I've ever played on. It was like a damn fairway at Augusta.
I'm proud to say that ALL of W&L's athletic facilities are either top notch or about to be. Both soccer fields were rebuilt to top tier specs in the mid 00s. With the current rebuilding of the gym and wrestling facilities currently in progress, and the recently finished natatorium, there will be almost no facilities that have not been completely rebuilt since about 2000 when the baseball field opened. The Duchosis Indoor Tennis Center, temporarily hosting basketball and wrestling, might be the oldest facility. And it is still one of the best indoor tennis centers in D3.

I'm obviously biased here, but 45 minutes down I-81 south you'll see what Roanoke College has built in regards to athletic facilities.  I'd put it up against any D3 school in the nation. While I'm proud of what they've built, I'm also pissed I didn't get to enjoy facilities like that when I played 1999-2003.

There is no doubt that Roanoke's facility is extremely nice. As is Lynchburg's. Wonderful stadiums that provide a stadium environment W&L doesn't match. But they are both artificial turf. And as nice as that is for field hockey, lacrosse, and football, I will forever prefer soccer be played on natural grass. W&L's field is beautifully manicured natural grass. And because field hockey, football and men's lacrosse play and practice elsewhere (women's lax plays there in the spring) it is not over used. Especially since 2015 when Fuge Field, an artificial turf practice field nearby, was added as an alternative practice site. That helps keep Watt Field in wonderful condition except in the very worst late season conditions.
Title: Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
Post by: D3Grad on November 13, 2019, 05:29:52 PM
Speaking on facilities.  Gregory is correct about the north and midwest regions having to rely on turf for their fields.  Up in Minnesota it is very difficult to maintain a quality grass pitch for the entire season.  Come mid October weather can drop low enough to start hardening the ground making playing very difficult.  North Park's turf field and similar fields were great to play on because the bounce is true and ball speed was very similar to a good grass pitch.   

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 13, 2019, 10:59:50 AM
The facilities arms race is an interesting topic especially given the competition among colleges, including at the top end and for those fighting for survival.  Among schools that do have resources, I'd be interested in what schools try to resist the facilities upgrade focus and might be more likely to build a new academic building.
Roanoke was a beautiful facility.  I was shocked it was D3.  The facilities arms race is another reason for the MIAC and St. Thomas to not get along.  I could only imaging how much worse the MIAC would react if St. Thomas had a facility like that.  My only complaint with the Roanoke pitch is the direction it is placed.  At certain times in the day the sun will be staring directly in your eyes.  Creates a goalkeeper's worst nightmare.