I'm looking for some insights and discussion on player turnover in DIII soccer.
What is the "normal" amount of turnover? - looks to be abour 30% leave on their own or are asked to leave.
What level of turnover is a "red flag"?
Does it vary among different types of program? How?
Is it different between different classes - fr, so, jr, sr?
Why do kids leave?
Any other insights?
A few sources - the number sits at around :
- Brown University - 30 percent of athletes quit respective teams https://www.browndailyherald.com/2016/04/28/30-percent-of-athletes-quit-respective-teams/ (https://www.browndailyherald.com/2016/04/28/30-percent-of-athletes-quit-respective-teams/)
- Univ of Chicago - Why Do Athletes Quit? https://www.chicagomaroon.com/article/2019/4/17/athletes-quit/ (https://www.chicagomaroon.com/article/2019/4/17/athletes-quit/)
- https://new.berecruited.com/athletes/521209/blog/011314-36-reasons-why-33-of-college-athletes-quit-cut-or-get-asked-to-leave (https://new.berecruited.com/athletes/521209/blog/011314-36-reasons-why-33-of-college-athletes-quit-cut-or-get-asked-to-leave)
Are you suggesting that 30% leave beyond those seniors who graduate? That seems awfully high to me, but I don't have any research to back that up. So for instance, if a team has 30 players each year, you seem to be saying that year to year there will be 9 players who leave beyond those who graduate, do I have that right?
It seems high when you present it like that. But if you think about it over four years. If a class comes in with 10 guys having 3 depart between freshmen and senior year seems pretty normal.
Quote from: d4_Pace on April 01, 2020, 10:16:53 AM
It seems high when you present it like that. But if you think about it over four years. If a class comes in with 10 guys having 3 depart between freshmen and senior year seems pretty normal.
Maybe it was a reading comprehension issue on my part :o because I was thinking on a year to year basis rather than over 4 years. If it's over a 4 year period for a single recruiting class, I agree that a 30% turnover rate is probably about right.
When my daughter was looking at schools a bit more than ten years ago, I looked at the attrition rate for the places she was considering and I remember it being roughly 50% from freshmen to senior year.
After the regular season last fall I pulled all the individual match stats from the NCAA D-III statistical database for an analysis I was contemplating. I never got around to that project but seeing this topic reminded me I had the data. I think this analysis addresses the question with a couple of caveats:
- The NCAA stats data does not appear to have any QC done. It is an upload from each matches boxscore.
- This is players who played in at least one match. Most rosters have a few players who never make it into a game. I would speculate they are more likely first years.
- A few of the schools don't include class year in the rosters they upload.
With that said, it's still a good data set; it's just not perfect.
|
men |
|
|
women |
|
Year |
count |
pct. chg |
|
count |
pct. chg |
Fr. |
3,930 |
|
|
3,000 |
|
So. |
3,032 |
(22.8%) |
|
2,869 |
(10.4%) |
Jr. |
2,436 |
(19.7%) |
|
2,247 |
(16.4%) |
Sr. |
2,114 |
(13.2%) |
|
1,790 |
(20.3%) |
Total |
11,512 |
(46.2%) |
|
9,726 |
(40.3%) |
I have a strong suspicion that these rates vary by success of the program on the pitch almost definitely and possibly by the academic rigor of the institution.
Jim Hutchinson
D3soccer.com