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Week 6 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2021, 10:35:15 PM
Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

You make some great points Ralph. As oppose to projecting, I'll look at the Top SAA, PAC, ODAC, USAC and ASC and compare schedules. Key Win(s) teams above .500. In theory, I would project a 9-1 Birmingham Southern would have the best case of an at-large, that would give them potential wins over a 8-2 Huntingdon (USAC Champ) and 8-2 Centre who would have a win over potential 1st place MIAA Trine. As opposed to Trinity (Tx.) with only 1 win against 8-2 Centre. Kudos for Trinity for filling it's schedule, but Macalester rarely would help SOS, would probably decrease it. I think by not having the ASC, you get a better chance to get RR teams on board for the SAA.

R3:
Trinity (Tx.) (4-0) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Centre (4-1), Berry (3-2)
W&J (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - John Carroll (3-2), St. Vincent (3-2)
Birmingham Southern (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Huntingdon (3-2)
Centre (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) Trine (4-2), Key Loss - Trinity (Tx.) (4-0)
Grove City (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Carnegie Mellon (4-2) )Key Loss - Westminster (3-2)
W&L (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - RM-C (5-1)
RM-C (5-1) (2-1) - Key Win(s) - Ferrum (4-1), Catholic (3-2), Key Loss - W&L (5-1)
Ferrum (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) - Averett (3-2) , Key Loss - RM-C (5-1)
Carnegie Mellon (4-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Westminster (3-2) Key losses - Whitworth (4-1), Grove City (5-1)
Shenandoah (4-1) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2)

Westminster (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Grove City (5-1), Key Losses - Mount (5-0), Carnegie (4-2)
Huntingdon (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2) & Key Losses - UW-O (3-1), B-S (5-0)
Berry (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UW-W (5-0), Trinity (4-0)
Methodist (3-2) (0-2) Key Losses - Shenandoah (4-1), Huntingdon (3-2)

ASC:
UMHB (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win(s) - H-S (4-1), ETBU (3-2)
HP (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win - ETBU (3-2)
H-S (4-1) (0-1) - Best Win - Belhaven (3-2), Key Loss - UMHB (5-0)
ETBU (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UMHB (5-0), HP (5-0)

great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work!  but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

Wow, this is amazing work. Thanks for your effort! I know this far out there are many changes that are likely to happen. One that I saw was Wisconsin Whitewater versus Wheaton as a second round. Reminds me of Mount Union vs North Central in a second round which should  have been a championship match. I know that these are sometimes unavoidable in D3 but it seems unfair to both teams.

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 12, 2021, 05:44:12 PM
great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work!  but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

Not sure, in 2019, a betting man would not have guessed NC-C to win the national championship and I mean for a while it was only two teams, then in 2012, St. Thomas entered the discussion, then UMHB (although vacated*) entered the discussion. Since everything is played on the field as opposed to being decided in a 5 star hotel conference room, I think what we have is the closest to the best way to decide a champion, can we improve, sure, is it necessary under current circumstances, no.  IMHO, we have a good amount of teams, more than years past that I can argue and be in favor of. It's all about matchups. Some teams matchup better than others, some teams have better talent, some teams have coaches, some teams have better schemes.

Quote from: nccfac on October 12, 2021, 10:20:25 PM
Wow, this is amazing work. Thanks for your effort! I know this far out there are many changes that are likely to happen. One that I saw was Wisconsin Whitewater versus Wheaton as a second round. Reminds me of Mount Union vs North Central in a second round which should  have been a championship match. I know that these are sometimes unavoidable in D3 but it seems unfair to both teams.

Regarding Wheaton being within the UW-W bracket, this was due to having the travel Quad and also giving the nod to an undefeated MIAC champion. I rewarded the MIAC champion (rightfully so IMHO) to not have to go face a potential #2/#3 overall seed.

My current bracket is no way shape or form something I realistically think the committee would put out, unless it goes back to having multiple rematches 1st round with conference members playing each other in the 1st and 2nd round. Ideally and historically, it would have consolidated more R1/R2 (formally ER) teams into Mount Union bracket, which financially would eliminate flights until Semi's (except travel quad), which would then lead to one bracket being heavily consisted of teams that include Central, UW-Lacrosse, St. John's, UW-W, NC-C, Wabash, etc.

2019, we had a total of 8 flights including the championship game. 2018 we had a few less than 2019, and 2017 had 8,  and my current bracket has 13. Next week, I'll probably tailor it to have a max of 8 flights, which definitely will upset quite a few R4 and R6 members as it probably will have a full R1/R2 bracket.

Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 13, 2021, 11:47:22 AM
Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

Unfortunately, I think so. However, in 2016, which was a unique year, when Mount lost to John Carroll and there were two OAC teams and only eight R1/R2 teams, they sent Huntingdon to Wheaton, which setup the CCIW champs to play 2nd round. I believe 2016 had only 8 flights. It would have been 9 or 10 had Huntingdon beat Wheaton and/or Olivet beat John Carroll.  In my projected bracket, I projected that Susquehanna and Union would get Pool C, plus the recent NEWMAC champ, making 11 R1/R2 teams. Financially, you would have them rematch, other than the ASC on many occasions, I can't recall the last time two teams played each other in recent playoffs.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 13, 2021, 10:18:48 AM

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 12, 2021, 05:44:12 PM
great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work!  but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

Not sure, in 2019, a betting man would not have guessed NC-C to win the national championship and I mean for a while it was only two teams, then in 2012, St. Thomas entered the discussion, then UMHB (although vacated*) entered the discussion. Since everything is played on the field as opposed to being decided in a 5 star hotel conference room, I think what we have is the closest to the best way to decide a champion, can we improve, sure, is it necessary under current circumstances, no.  IMHO, we have a good amount of teams, more than years past that I can argue and be in favor of. It's all about matchups. Some teams matchup better than others, some teams have better talent, some teams have coaches, some teams have better schemes.

no doubt, the best way.  I agree with your later post, the NCAA will definitely be very flight-averse after a covid year with less revenue.  Mount will no doubt get a quadrant full of east coast teams, UWW and NCC will get most of the midwest powers and UMHB will get all of the misfits

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 13, 2021, 11:47:22 AM
Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

The committee doesn't protect non-conference rematches in the first round, only conference rematches.

Week 7 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Ithaca (.661) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.658) - R6
Whitworth (.655) - R6
R-MC (.590) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.587) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.549) - R4
Wheaton (.545) - R5
Trinity (TX.) (.503) - R3
Muhlenberg (.500) - R2
Chicago (.474) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Howard Payne (.419) - R6

At the current state, it's going to be really tough to not take Whitworth at 3 based upon the high SOS. Afterwards is where you have to look at resume and subjective factors and make the objective factors work for you. I think the R3 places Hardin-Simmons in from of R-MC as both teams resume are equal. Lastly, is where the committee would have to make Wheaton (Ill.) right and that is probably like last year adding Wash-U as a ranked team, because Northwestern (MN) is 1-5, Belhaven (4-2), Hampden-Sydney (2-4), Johns Hopkins (5-1), Centre (4-2). Also, be mindful that Chicago has beaten WASH-U as well, however with a SOS below .500, we will exclude them from conversation. The committees from each region will have to be very selective in placing their teams. The questions come down to R3 putting a team with slightly lower SOS with equal resumes above the team with the higher SOS. Then, the National Committee making Wheaton right. From a strictly objective standpoint Wheaton would be out and R-MC in. I can't recall the last time a Top 6 team has not made the playoff?

I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. In that case Delaware Valley would be a top seed and you have R1/R2 bracket similar to 2019 or St. John's.

W&L is definitely pool A or bust. CNU hurts, Sewanee hurts, playing Newport News Apprentice doesn't help and probably hurts (not D3), and I'm not sure what E&H's status is for tournament consideration since they are transitioning to D2. Basically the whole OOC is a negative for W&L either because they lost (CNU), their opponent probably won't win a game (Sewanee), or the games don't really count for anything (NNA and E&H).

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point.   Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago?  Does spring football count?  What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff.  SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Bethel has a SOS .588 and still has a path to Pool A if they win they win and get the MIAC Auto bid in the SJU rematch.

What's interesting is how would the committee view a 2 loss Bethel, but with both losses coming against a Top5 SJU? Especially if the second loss is as close as the first?

How do they compare a one loss Whitworth, that got blown out against Linfield (so it would appear a likely 2nd loss if they had a rematch) to a Bethel who lost at least once in a close competitive 1 score game to SJU, and potentially twice?

Easy math says you favor the 1 loss team. But if Bethel loses a close rematch to SJU, I have zero idea how Region 6 committee would view that, where they'd rank them in Region, or how the National Committee would view it. It's a very unique 2 loss situation.

A lot of FB left still. Ithaca, Union, and the LL still have a lot of sorting out to do before we have any idea who the Pool A is or if there's a 1 loss Pool C still standing.

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

Quote from: hazzben on October 18, 2021, 12:58:41 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

that UMHB SOS...yikes

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 01:04:07 PM

Quote from: hazzben on October 18, 2021, 12:58:41 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

that UMHB SOS...yikes

It should improve a little over the next few weeks, but not enough to really close the gap. They'll still likely be the lowest number, which could mean they are traveling to a chilly locale for the Semifinals.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

True that W&L has no Pool C path, but they could hold R-M down in the regional rankings.

(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

I am assuming that the Regional Rankings will still come out the same time (after week 8?), but is the NCAA going to still do 10 ranked teams per region?  or is it less with the extra regions? 25-30% of teams being "ranked" seems a bit high

I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 02:35:33 PM
I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.

makes way more sense....so the NCAA probably wont do it  ;)

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

That is awesome, awesome work. Can't give K yet, but well done.

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.

Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.

I do love the eliminator table!

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 19, 2021, 02:02:37 PM
I am assuming that the Regional Rankings will still come out the same time (after week 8?), but is the NCAA going to still do 10 ranked teams per region?  or is it less with the extra regions? 25-30% of teams being "ranked" seems a bit high

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 02:35:33 PM
I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.

I was actually hoping for 10 per region- the extra data for primary criteria would be useful, TBH.  A previous announcement from the NCAA indicated that the new regions would rank 6-9 teams each and I believe that more recent indications to D3football dot com have indicated that it will indeed be 7 or 8 teams per region, depending on the number of teams in a region.  Still waiting on the pre-championship manual for confirmation of everything which should be coming soon.  I mean, we expect rankings after week 9, so sometime before 10/30 I would assume. 

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 04:12:35 PM

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.

Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.

Yes, there's a championship game. Technically Bethel could pick up a second loss before the MIAC champ game, as long as they are top of their division, they still have a Pool A shot with a win in the final week.

I'm just pointing out that right now Bethel is listed as a two loss team, when they are currently a 1 loss team.

Part of Wally's annual exercise is in part predicting who will win H2H matchups down the stretch, and projecting Pool C picks based on this. It's what makes it fun each week, as the data points shift. This model is saying we are looking at only real time data in terms of record. 

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 08:50:10 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 04:12:35 PM

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8JKBHHO.png)
Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.

Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.

Yes, there's a championship game. Technically Bethel could pick up a second loss before the MIAC champ game, as long as they are top of their division, they still have a Pool A shot with a win in the final week.

I'm just pointing out that right now Bethel is listed as a two loss team, when they are currently a 1 loss team.

Part of Wally's annual exercise is in part predicting who will win H2H matchups down the stretch, and projecting Pool C picks based on this. It's what makes it fun each week, as the data points shift. This model is saying we are looking at only real time data in terms of record.

Wally usually starts with the elimination table (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1890487#msg1890487) which is strictly for the pool C bids which is what I was doing (note the HCAC which has everyone eliminated but will still have a pool A team). I just tried to be a little more detailed by denoting who could still be a 1 loss at large and who has to have 2 losses. If a team gets in through pool A then they're no longer a factor in the chart (they'll be in gold). Looking at the color code on my original post, it's essentially white if they can be a 1 loss pool C, gray if they can only be a 2 loss pool C, and red if they must have more than 2 losses.

I didn't go through and see who still has to play who and will knock each other out though. That's a lot tougher to wade through with 1/3 of the season left. It will probably knock some teams from white to gray. I just took a look at the MIAC (it's a bit quirkier due to the divisions and championship game) and Carleton and Gustavus (still having to play St John's) are in the same boat as Bethel and would have to pick up a second loss to be pool C so should be gray on the next update (if they remain at 1 loss then they've won the conference and don't have to worry about pool C).

I'll take a look in the coming days and update it.

@FCGrizz ... makes sense, thanks for clarifying.

(https://i.imgur.com/uCVwvA6.png)
1 loss means can be pool C with just 1 loss
2 loss means must have 2 losses to be pool C
Elminated means must have at least 3 losses to be pool C

Pool C eliminator update
These are the changes and notes I made since the last chart. Some conferences are clearcut, some have plenty of permutations left

CCC: UNE with 3rd loss
ECFC: Gallaudet 1st loss, 1 loss Gallaudet wins conference
MAC: FDU-Florham 3rd loss. Widener 2nd loss. Wilkes with 1 loss wins MAC if they stay at 1 loss.
MASCAC: No change
NEWMAC: no change
CC: Muhlenberg with 1 loss wins conference
E8: Utica 3rd loss.
LL: 4 teams fighting for first
NJAC: Salisbury with one loss wins NJAC even with a 2nd loss
PAC: 4 way tie for first currently
ASC: Howard Payne with 1 loss wins conference
ODAC: Ferrum 2nd loss.  W&L with one loss still wins ODAC with a 2nd loss.
SAA: no change
USAC: Huntingdon should have been red previously with 2 non-conference losses
HCAC: no change
MIAA: Olivet 3rd loss, Albion with 1 loss wins conference
NCAC: Wooster 3rd loss, Wabash 2nd loss, Denison with 2 losses wins conference
OAC: Heidelberg 2nd loss, Ohio Northern 3rd loss, Mount Union with a loss still wins conference
ARC: potential 3 way tie
CCIW: potential 3 way tie
MWC: Ripon 2nd loss
NACC: Concordia (WI) 2nd loss
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus 2nd loss, 1 loss Carleton wins conference,
NWC: Pacific 3rd loss
SCIAC: Cal Lutheran 2nd loss, Redlands with a 2nd loss still wins conference
UMAC: no change
WIAC: UWRF 2nd loss, Stout 2nd loss

Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Appreciate the efforts and also getting some conversation going. Looking at your bracket, the first thing that came to mind was how many flights you had in the first round. Seemed like a lot to me and all of them probably aren't needed. One other note, it would be very surprising to me if Greenville doesn't come out of the UMAC and is not playing North Central in the first game.

Again thanks for your efforts, it is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks. 

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 09:34:52 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

Appreciate the efforts and also getting some conversation going. Looking at your bracket, the first thing that came to mind was how many flights you had in the first round. Seemed like a lot to me and all of them probably aren't needed. One other note, it would be very surprising to me if Greenville doesn't come out of the UMAC and is not playing North Central in the first game.

Again thanks for your efforts, it is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.

Thanks for the clarification regarding Greenville and Minn-Morris. I only have 3 flights in the 1st round in the travel Quad. There no way to avoid that unless you have UMHB vs. H-S and Linfield vs. Whitworth. Couldn't recall on today's podcast if it was noted if the committee will honor the two-year "guarantee" of not having conference opponents play each other 1st round. However, it was mentioned that non-conference rematches aren't out of the question (i.e. SAA vs. Huntingdon). Regarding Redlands, someone has to go to California or Redlands have to go somewhere. Regarding LaCrosse being in the travel bucket. I could have replaced them with Wheaton, but I think from a travel standpoint it made more sense. I also could have switch LaCross with Westminster and send any R1/R2 team to Redlands or had Redlands go to that R1/R2 team.

Whitworth to Mary Hardin-Baylor, Redlands to Linfield. Hardin-Simmons plays Trinity and that is not a flight, I know you don't have Trinity, but that is probably the most likely SAA winner. Don't think a game is played in Southern California this year.

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 11:16:07 AM
Whitworth to Mary Hardin-Baylor, Redlands to Linfield. Hardin-Simmons plays Trinity and that is not a flight, I know you don't have Trinity, but that is probably the most likely SAA winner. Don't think a game is played in Southern California this year.

That's my thought process as well if Trinity (TX.) is Pool A Qualifier. However, someone has to go to Huntingdon or Huntingdon has to go somewhere, so that's another flight. Maybe the Committee repeats 2016 and has Wheaton go to Huntingdon or vice versa. Or have Huntingdon to WIAC 2nd Place. My goal is to  not have CCIW 1&2 and WIAC 1&2 faceoff until Semi's or Final.

Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

Also, if Birmingham Southern did lose a tight game to Trinity they would be in the conversation for a C Pool bid and that would be an option without a flight. 

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 25, 2021, 12:39:16 PM

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

RHIT to Huntingdon - definitely a flight. 

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2021, 05:16:10 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 25, 2021, 12:39:16 PM

Quote from: Baldini on October 25, 2021, 12:31:00 PM
Rose-Hulman to Huntingdon isn't a flight, but I doubt that would be a first round game either.

It is according to https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles. Approximately 550 miles. However, if that was the case, I'm pretty sure the committee would have Huntingdon play Rose-Hulman if both met the criteria. It would be similar to Husson making the playoff, they match them to nearest NE qualifying team.

RHIT to Huntingdon - definitely a flight.

Is it 500 miles or 600 miles?

Still just the 500 miles as far as I'm aware, but maybe we'll get surprised when we see the pre-championship manual.   

I don't know what anybody gains by expanding the bus-allowable distance to 600 miles.  You could get a RHIT-Huntingdon first round game, but should that be a first round game?  I also don't know how 1100 miles round trip on a bus equates to a good student-athlete experience, which is something these championships are supposed to prioritize. 

The places that really need relief from wonky, out-of-logical-order matchups are out on the islands where an extra 100 miles doesn't really help to introduce more potential first/second round partners. 

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2021, 07:14:02 PM
Still just the 500 miles as far as I'm aware, but maybe we'll get surprised when we see the pre-championship manual.   

I don't know what anybody gains by expanding the bus-allowable distance to 600 miles.  You could get a RHIT-Huntingdon first round game, but should that be a first round game?  I also don't know how 1100 miles round trip on a bus equates to a good student-athlete experience, which is something these championships are supposed to prioritize. 

The places that really need relief from wonky, out-of-logical-order matchups are out on the islands where an extra 100 miles doesn't really help to introduce more potential first/second round partners.

Somewhere I stumbled across the fact that in D2 the air travel rule is 600 miles, or at least it was. I agree that I am not sure how much that improves any situation but I did think it was weird that there rule was different than D3. I can only assume it because there are fewer teams in D2 so that 100 miles come in handy more often than it would in D3.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

By "current SOS" do you mean for opponents played to date? Or for opponents that remain on their schedule?

Quote from: WW on October 26, 2021, 09:04:30 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

By "current SOS" do you mean for opponents played to date? Or for opponents that remain on their schedule?

"To date". You can find the SOS here - https://d3football.com/seasons/2021/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

a couple of those bolded SOS are going to be dropping like rocks in the next few weeks.  Dont you just love that D3 has an actual playoff?

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 26, 2021, 03:44:21 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 24, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411) This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

a couple of those bolded SOS are going to be dropping like rocks in the next few weeks.  Dont you just love that D3 has an actual playoff?

Sure do. And I mostly love that there's an objective means of deciding who gets to participate.

I think this is where things stand in each conference:

ARC: Central's to lose. No one else controls their own destiny, though a 3-way tie with Dubuque and Wartburg is possible.

ASC: Mary Hardin–Baylor leads. Howard Payne still controls their own destiny.

CCC: Endicott, Salve Regina, and Western New England are all 3-1 and could be headed for a three-way tie. It looks like the tiebreaker would be overall SOS. Husson is 2-1 with Salve and WNE still on the schedule.

CCIW: North Central leads. No one else controls their own destiny, though a 3-way tie with WashU and Wheaton is possible.

Centennial: Susquehanna leads at 6-0, but has played neither 5-1 team. Muhlenberg controls their own destiny.

ECFC: Anna Maria is 3-0. Castleton, at 3-1, controls their own destiny; Gallaudet and Alfred State both need help.

Empire 8: Alfred and Cortland meet this week for the outright lead. If Alfred wins, Brockport has a chance to make it a 3-way tie.

HCAC: Rose–Hulman leads. Mount St. Joseph still controls their own destiny.

Liberty: Ithaca is 4-0 and Union is 3-0. Hobart and RPI can still complicate things.

MAC: Delaware Valley leads, but Wilkes controls their own destiny.

MASCAC: The winner between Bridgewater State and Framingham State will almost certainly take the title.

MIAA: Hope and Trine are tied at 3-0, but Albion still controls their own destiny.

MIAC: St. John's leads the Northwoods division, though Carleton still controls their own destiny. The Skyline division will come down to the Augsburg – Bethel game.

MWC: Lake Forest and Monmouth are 6-0 and meet this week. If Lake Forest wins, Chicago has a chance at a three-way tie.

NACC: Aurora and Benedictine are 5-0 and meet this week. If Aurora wins, Lakeland has a chance at a three-way tie.

NCAC: DePauw leads at 6-0. Denison, at 5-1, controls their own destiny. The two meet this week.

NEWMAC: 4-0 Merchant Marine and 3-0 Springfield meet this week. If Springfield wins, Catholic has a chance at a three-way tie.

NJAC: Salisbury would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

NWC: George Fox and Linfield are 4-0 and meet this week. If George Fox wins, Whitworth has a chance at a three-way tie.

OAC: Mount Union would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

ODAC: Washington & Lee would have to lose their last two conference games to miss out on the title.

PAC: There is a four-way tie at 5-1, each loss being to another 5-1 team. Westminster has the advantage, having played all three of the others and beaten two of them, but none of the four control their own destiny.

SAA: Birmingham–Southern and Trinity are both 4-0. Berry still has a chance at a three-way tie.

SCIAC: Redlands would have to lose their last two to miss out on the title.

UMAC: Greenville leads at 3-0. No one else controls their own destiny, but there are three one-loss teams.

USA South: Huntingdon would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

WIAC: The winner of the La Crosse – Whitewater game will win the title, unless that team loses their other two remaining games.

1 Pool A bid locked up, but lots more can be next week

Locked
E8: Cortland

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne
CCIW: North Central win at WashU
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner

Multiple game scenario
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover
LL: Union win at Ithaca AND RPI loss at St Lawrence
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion AND Trine loss at Alma
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT AND Catholic loss vs Norwich
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve

Going to week 11
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 11/6; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 11/6; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 11/6; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

Cortland is in.   :)

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2021, 09:40:47 PM
Cortland is in.   :)

Missed that. Only 1 conference game left for them and they own the tiebreakers.

Week 9 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse, H-S, Whitworth (RR win over Carnegie Mellon), Johns Hopkins, and  Wheaton

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (.564) - R6
Whitworth (.531) - R6
R-MC (.559) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.561) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.511) - R4
Wheaton (.512) - R5
B-SC (.450) - R3
Johns Hopkins (.526)

At the moment I'm predicting John Hopkins, UW-La Crosse, HSU, Wheaton, and B-SC.

Quote from: trickytroy32 on October 31, 2021, 10:17:30 AM
At the moment I'm predicting John Hopkins, UW-La Crosse, HSU, Wheaton, and B-SC.

I think Whitworth depends on if Carnegie Mellon makes the board and is the PAC winner. However, their bad loss to Linfield is definitely rearing its head and the committee will look at who you have played and how well you did against that team. It will definitely be cost-effective to have two SAA teams, being able to have Huntingdon go to B-SC and H-S to Trinity, while sending Redlands to either UMHB or Linfield, while sending Lacrosse and/or Wheaton to Linfield. That's the most cost effective.

Here's the current Pool C eliminator table.
(https://i.imgur.com/LmgeuT3.png)

Cortland has the first golden ticket. Teams with gold names can win pool A with a win this week (15 conferences including 2 winner take all games)

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 31, 2021, 03:03:32 PM
My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

I understand your thought process on this, I just don't see the committee leaving Wheaton out. I'm genuinely afraid that HSU may be out, my eyes are going to be on the Trinity - B-SC game this weekend. If it's a close call with Trinity winning, I'm not sure HSU is first to the table in Region 3 with Huntingdon winning their conference and B-SC having a 2 results against a RRO, one being a blow out win and the other a close loss.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 31, 2021, 03:03:32 PM
My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

A little surprised with your selections here. I don't know if Whitworth even gets to the table, if UW-O wins out my guess is that they will be ahead of Whitworth in Region 6. I won't beat the Wheaton horse to death here, but can't imagine them left out regardless of their SoS number either.

Quote from: HSUCowboy2015 on November 01, 2021, 09:21:31 AM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 31, 2021, 03:03:32 PM
My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

I understand your thought process on this, I just don't see the committee leaving Wheaton out. I'm genuinely afraid that HSU may be out, my eyes are going to be on the Trinity - B-SC game this weekend. If it's a close call with Trinity winning, I'm not sure HSU is first to the table in Region 3 with Huntingdon winning their conference and B-SC having a 2 results against a RRO, one being a blow out win and the other a close loss.

If I'm a Hardin-Simmons fan, there is more criteria than RRO and SOS (i.e. NCC in 2019). However, I'd be rooting for B-SC to win as you mentioned, because B-SC will probably have 2 RR wins if Centre makes it onto the table. However, I'd also be rooting for Union to win out, therefore giving Ithaca a 2nd loss and root for Muhlenberg to beat Susquehanna, because Susquehanna probably will have 1 RRO win with Lycoming probably being ranked in R1 and maybe another if a two-loss Muhlenberg gets to the table in R2. Belhaven losing to Southwestern really hurt. Belhaven would have probably made it to the board. I mean the R3 committee can still add them to the board similar to how WASH-U made it to the board to help NCC in 2019. It really will depend on how R3 committee ranks a two loss Centre and/or Huntingdon amongst my projected "8" teams that will be ranked. If R3 gets 9 teams, which is the highest number of RR teams, I think a 3rd place ASC with 3 losses makes the board. There are so many scenarios, you may have two teams from R3. What would also throw a wrinkle is if St. John's loses to Bethel and St. John's falls into Pool C and they'd have a RRO win against Aurora. Another thing of note is common opponents. Hardin-Simmons has Texas Lutheran at the end of the year which will give Hardin-Simmons a common opponent with Trinity (Tx.), they beat them 51-14, you'd want Hardin-Simmons to put up a similar result.

Quote from: Baldini on November 01, 2021, 09:34:00 AM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 31, 2021, 03:03:32 PM
My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

A little surprised with your selections here. I don't know if Whitworth even gets to the table, if UW-O wins out my guess is that they will be ahead of Whitworth in Region 6. I won't beat the Wheaton horse to death here, but can't imagine them left out regardless of their SoS number either.

You are definitely right, however, if Carnegie Mellon wins out, they'd probably make it on the R2 ranking giving Whitworth a RRO win. Then in some twisted argument, you have to argue is Carnegie better opponent than Huntingdon. It all depends on how the R6 committee wants to place it's teams. If LaCrosse beats UW-W, UW-W will be the first team off the board regardless if Oshkosh becomes RR, it'd make sense to rank Whitworth (only if Carnegie wins out). However, that drubbing they took to Linfield can be a factor when looking at at-large teams on a national stage.

What does W&L's SOS look like? They're obviously not a Pool C candidate, but I'd imagine they provide the ceiling for R-M's regional ranking.

Quote from: Inkblot on November 01, 2021, 02:41:00 PM
What does W&L's SOS look like? They're obviously not a Pool C candidate, but I'd imagine they provide the ceiling for R-M's regional ranking.

Terrible... only OOC games that qualify for D3 were Sewanee (0-8) and CNU (4-5). E&H and Newport News Apprentice don't count, not that either would help. Looking at R-MC's OOC, Dickinson and Catholic, Dickinson could lose their next 2 and I wouldn't make Catholic the favorite over Springfield. So I suspect R-MC's own SOS will drop and take them lower in contention anyway. Especially with only 8 qualifying D3 games.

https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1455594006247784454

Dr Logan Hansen giving his predictions on the upcoming RR

The first regional "rankings" (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/first-regional-ranking) are out.

Region 1	Team	D-III record	Overall record	SoS	RRO
	Deleware Valley	8-0	8-0	0.538	1-0	W Lycoming, vs Widener
	Endicott	7-2	7-2	0.553	1-1	W Husson, L Salve Regina
	Framingham State	6-2	6-2	0.464	0-0
	Husson	6-2	6-2	0.517	0-1	L Endicott, vs Salve Regina
	Lycoming	6-2	6-2	0.570	0-1	L Del Val, at Widener
	Merchant Marine	7-1	7-1	0.512	0-0
	Salve Regina	8-1	8-1	0.481	1-0	W Endicott, at Husson
	Widener	6-2	6-2	0.448	0-0	vs Lycoming, at Del Val
Region 2
	Cortland	8-0	8-0	0.493	0-0	vs Ithaca
	Ithaca	7-1	7-1	0.575	0-1	L RPI, vs Union, at Cortland
	Johns Hopkins	7-1	7-1	0.526	0-1	L Muhlenberg
	Muhlenberg	7-1	7-1	0.456	1-0	W Johns Hopkins
	RPI	7-1	7-1	0.494	1-0	W Ithaca, at Union
	Salisbury	6-1	6-1	0.513	0-1	L UW-Whitewater
	Union	8-0	8-0	0.489	0-0	at Ithaca, vs RPI
	Washington & Jefferson	7-1	7-1	0.517	1-0	W John Carroll
Region 3
	Birmingham-Southern	7-0	8-0	0.485	1-0	W Centre, vs Trinity (TX)
	Centre	6-2	6-2	0.555	0-2	L Trinity (TX), L Birmingham-Southern
	Hardin-Simmons	6-1	7-1	0.562	0-1	L Mary Hardin-Baylor
	Mary Hardin-Baylor	8-0	8-0	0.474	1-0	W Hardin-Simmons
	Randolph-Macon	6-1	8-1	0.559	0-1	L Washington & Lee
	Trinity (Texas)	7-0	7-0	0.450	1-0	W Centre, at Birmingham-Southern
	Washington & Lee	5-1	7-1	0.473	1-0	W Randolph-Macon
Region 4
	Albion	7-1	7-1	0.503	0-0	vs Hope
	Baldwin Wallace	7-1	7-1	0.511	1-1	W Heidelberg, L Mount Union, vs John Carroll
	DePauw	7-0	7-1	0.523	0-0
	Heidelberg	5-2	5-2	0.551	0-2	L Baldwin Wallace, L Mount Union, vs John Carroll
	Hope	7-1	7-1	0.506	0-1	L Coe, vs Albion
	John Carroll	6-2	6-2	0.503	0-2	L Washington & Jefferson, L Mount Union, at Heidelberg, at Baldwin Wallace
	Mount Union	8-0	8-0	0.560	3-0	W Baldwin Wallace, W John Carroll, W Heidelberg
Region 5
	Aurora	6-2	6-2	0.534	0-2	L St John's, L North Central (IL), at Lakeland
	Central	8-0	8-0	0.446	1-0	W Coe
	Chicago	7-1	7-1	0.498	0-0	at Lake Forest
	Coe	6-2	6-2	0.505	1-1	W Hope, L Central
	Lake Forest	8-0	8-0	0.483	0-0	vs Chicago
	Lakeland	7-1	7-1	0.447	0-0	vs Aurora
	North Central (Ill.)	8-0	8-0	0.520	2-0	W Aurora, W Wheaton (IL)
	Wheaton (Ill.)	7-1	7-1	0.512	0-1	L North Central (IL)
Region 6
	Bethel	7-1	7-1	0.544	0-1	L St John's
	Linfield	6-0	7-0	0.596	2-0	W Redlands, W Whitworth
	Redlands	6-1	6-1	0.574	0-1	L Linfield
	St. John's	8-0	8-0	0.611	2-0	W Aurora, W Bethel
	Whitworth	6-1	7-1	0.531	0-1	L Linfield
	UW-La Crosse	6-0	7-1	0.564	1-0	W UW-Oshkosh, at UW-Whitewater
	UW-Oshkosh	4-2	5-2	0.658	0-2	L UW-La Crosse, L UW-Whitewater
	UW-Whitewater	8-0	8-0	0.604	2-0	W Salisbury, W UW-Oshkosh, vs UW-La Crosse

Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

My take on what the rankings could be if they actually ranked this week... gives us a good starting point to discuss since I'm sure I don't have them all correct. I'll get to the other regions tomorrow unless someone else decides to do them first.

Region 1
1) Delaware Valley (8-0, .538, 1-0) [Obvious #1 here]
2) Salve Regina (8-1, .481, 1-0) [a win over Endicott helps them be this high]
3) Endicott (7-2, .553, 1-1) [nice SoS and a RRO win gets them over the next two]
4) Merchant Marine (7-1, .512, 0-0) [One of three teams with less than two losses but no RRO]
5) Lycoming (6-2, .570, 0-1) [great SoS, but two losses and no RRO win]
6) Husson (6-2, .517, 0-1) [kind of average, better than those below, worse than those above]
7) Widener (6-2, .448, 0-0) [Chance to improve with 2 RRO coming up]
8) Framingham St (6-2, .464, 0-0) [A surprise to be in the rankings]

#2-5 were difficult because of one head to head result and different factors supporting different teams. Interesting that the committee chose Framingham St over a team like Western New England (5-3, .554, 1-2) or FDU-Florham (5-3, .556, 1-2). Better record but much lower SoS. I wonder when RRO are included if that will change. That choice might mean Merchant Marine is likely ahead of Lycoming and could be even higher.

Region 2
1) Cortland (8-0, .493, 0-0) [unbeaten but sub-.500 SoS currently should improve a little]
2) Union (8-0, .489, 0-0) [win the next two and they're ranked first]
3) Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0) [lucky to have John Carroll for a RRO with the PAC keeping each other out of the rankings]
4) RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0) [beat Ithaca and better SoS than Muhlenberg]
5) Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1) [big SoS that will go up with 2 RRO to play]
6) Muhlenberg (7-1, .456, 1-0) [beat Johns Hopkins but that SoS stinks]
7) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526, 0-1) [Muhlenberg is a big roadblock for them]
8) Salisbury (6-1, .513, 0-1) [could fall behind Susquehanna once RRO are in]

Susquehanna (7-1, .515, 1-1) not in the rankings. Not much record wise to separate everyone. Two head to heads set RPI ahead of Ithaca and Muhlenberg ahead of Johns Hopkins. After that it was pretty simple. I think the gap in SoS between Ithaca and Muhlenberg is too much for the Mules to be ahead. I could see an argument for 7/8 to flip.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 03, 2021, 10:30:18 PM
Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

Quote from: jknezek on November 04, 2021, 09:58:28 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 03, 2021, 10:30:18 PM
Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

Great post! Glad to give you your 1000th "+1"!

Since Greg went ahead and did a full ranking (https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2021/giving-order-to-regional-rankings) I'll defer to his expertise. My rankings of regions 1 and 2 weren't terribly far off.

The top three in each region not currently leading their conference (some teams still control their own destiny and some teams still play each other)
Region 1: Endicott - CCC (7-2, .553, 1-0), Lycoming - MAC (6-2, .570, 0-1), Merchant Marine - NEWMAC (7-1, .512, 0-0)
Region 2: RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0), Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1), Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0)
Region 3: Trinity (Texas) (7-0, .450, 1-0), Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .562, 0-1), Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559, 0-1)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace   (7-1, .511, 1-1), Heidelberg (5-2, .551, 0-2), John Carroll (6-2, .503, 0-2)
Region 5: Wheaton (Ill.) (7-1, .512, 0-1), Coe (6-2, .505, 1-1), Chicago (7-1, .498, 0-0)
Region 6: UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564, 1-0), Bethel (7-1, .544, 0-1), UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658, 0-2)


Who's up first in Region 2 is still to be figured out with the LL matchups
Does Trinity stay ahead of Hardin-Simmons if they lose this weekend? H-S will drop SoS playing 1-6 Austin this week
Who gets selected first, Baldwin Wallace or Wheaton? Same record, both lost to region #1 (Wheaton a bit closer), but BW has a win against R4#5 and still play R4#6.
Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

Let's hurry up and get to the weekend so we can get a clearer picture 8-)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2021, 07:34:48 PM

Quote from: jknezek on November 04, 2021, 09:58:28 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 03, 2021, 10:30:18 PM
Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

Great post! Glad to give you your 1000th "+1"!

Huh. A milestone moment I guess. Thanks.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 05, 2021, 12:42:02 AM
Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

If Bethel loses close (like the first time) to SJU, I think they stay ahead of both UWO and Whitworth. With UWO they have a common opponent in UWP, 21 pt win for Bethel, 3 pt win for UWO. Whitworth got destroyed by Linfield. My gut says the RAC will give some consideration to the fact Bethel had to play SJU twice, so it's an 'odd' second loss. The logical question being, what happens if UWO had to play UWW or UWL twice? Likely a 3 loss team. We'll see though. I'm still hoping Bethel pulls off the upset and sends SJU into the Pool C discussion.  :)

With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2021, 09:12:54 AM
With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

Ice Bear says, well ****ing said hazzben. Hoping all don't mind Ice making an appearance outside the LLPP here on the general boards as he openly admits the rest of the country is not his expertise at all (although he's been trying to watch more out of region games and loves the quality of FB he sees). He's slowly gaining some more perspective on the levels/quality of football being played around the country. Admittedly, he has a long ****ing way to go.

Ice Bear feels hazzben makes some good points and especially regarding Regions 1 and 2. Region 2 has some "very good" football teams none of which are elite. Ice thinks this may be the best Cortland team in years and that one of the top four LL teams could win a game or two (at most) in the NCAA's. Del Val, who in the past has always been lumped in with top Region 2 teams finds itself mixed in with much of  New England in what is most certainly the weakest region. With that said you do have some good teams and programs that are growing and improving. Some of which really can compete and possible defeat a top region 2 team.

Ice Bear is really looking forward to how Region 6 shakes out.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 05, 2021, 12:42:02 AM
Since Greg went ahead and did a full ranking (https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2021/giving-order-to-regional-rankings) I'll defer to his expertise. My rankings of regions 1 and 2 weren't terribly far off.

The top three in each region not currently leading their conference (some teams still control their own destiny and some teams still play each other)
Region 1: Endicott - CCC (7-2, .553, 1-0), Lycoming - MAC (6-2, .570, 0-1), Merchant Marine - NEWMAC (7-1, .512, 0-0)
Region 2: RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0), Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1), Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0)
Region 3: Trinity (Texas) (7-0, .450, 1-0), Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .562, 0-1), Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559, 0-1)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace   (7-1, .511, 1-1), Heidelberg (5-2, .551, 0-2), John Carroll (6-2, .503, 0-2)
Region 5: Wheaton (Ill.) (7-1, .512, 0-1), Coe (6-2, .505, 1-1), Chicago (7-1, .498, 0-0)
Region 6: UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564, 1-0), Bethel (7-1, .544, 0-1), UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658, 0-2)


Who's up first in Region 2 is still to be figured out with the LL matchups
Does Trinity stay ahead of Hardin-Simmons if they lose this weekend? H-S will drop SoS playing 1-6 Austin this week
Who gets selected first, Baldwin Wallace or Wheaton? Same record, both lost to region #1 (Wheaton a bit closer), but BW has a win against R4#5 and still play R4#6.
Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

Let's hurry up and get to the weekend so we can get a clearer picture 8-)

Plus Trinity's(and BSC) SoS will go up after this week. I'm not sure how close they can get to H-S though.

Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2021, 09:12:54 AM
With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

Great analysis and well stated, hazzben. +1!

In Region 3, I can see the bottom 3 getting a win solely on geographic proximity, e.g., the #4 seed versus the #5 seed.

the BSU-Trinity game this week seems massive for region 3.  BSU wins and I dont see how they wouldnt be "ranked" ahead of UMHB in terms of SOS and RRO.  If Trinity wins, I can't see them jumping UMHB but it would be very close, as long as Centre keeps winning.  Bad year for UMHB to have a 1-9 OOC opponent huh?

Quote from: D3fanboy on November 05, 2021, 04:37:32 PM
the BSU-Trinity game this week seems massive for region 3.  BSU wins and I dont see how they wouldnt be "ranked" ahead of UMHB in terms of SOS and RRO.  If Trinity wins, I can't see them jumping UMHB but it would be very close, as long as Centre keeps winning.  Bad year for UMHB to have a 1-9 OOC opponent huh?

I understand the hollering that is going to happen, but I really don't see anybody other than UMHB being #1 in this region.  A team in Region 3 is going to have to:
- beat UMHB head to head
or
- have a favorable result against a common opponent
or
- go farther than UMHB in the previous championship tournament

to dislodge them from the #1 spot.  UMHB's bad SOS and 1-0 vs. RRO (and early-ish exit from the 2019 tournament) might cost them one of the four top seeds in the tournament, but I don't believe it's going to cost them the top spot in Region 3's rankings. 

Trying to update the important scores

Locked
E8: Cortland
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 28-0 2nd
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 35-14 half
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 42-0 3rd
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 16-0 half
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 14-13 2nd
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 38-7 3rd
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 16-2 2nd
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 4:00pm
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 28-7 2nd
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 14-17 4th
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 14-7 half
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 4:00pm
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 38-0 2nd
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 0-0 2nd

Multiple game scenario
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin 24-7 half AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover 3-0 2nd
LL: Union win at Ithaca 0-10 half AND RPI loss at St Lawrence 7-7 half
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion 31-31 3rd AND Trine loss at Alma 20-10 3rd
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit 35-3 2nd AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence 28-0 2nd
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson 27-3 3rd AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent 21-6 half AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve 14-20 3rd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna 31-20 3rd AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson 34-3 3rd AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata 44-7 final
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 10-24 4th; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 17-25 4th; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 21-13 half; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT 7:00pm AND Catholic loss vs Norwich 35-14 final
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 06, 2021, 02:17:51 PM
Trying to update the important scores

Locked
E8: Cortland
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 28-0 2nd
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 35-14 half
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 42-0 3rd
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 16-0 half
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 14-13 2nd
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 38-7 3rd
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 16-2 2nd
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 4:00pm
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 28-7 2nd
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 14-17 4th
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 14-7 half
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 4:00pm
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 38-0 2nd
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 0-0 2nd

Multiple game scenario
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin 24-7 half AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover 3-0 2nd
LL: Union win at Ithaca 0-10 half AND RPI loss at St Lawrence 7-7 half
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion 31-31 3rd AND Trine loss at Alma 20-10 3rd
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit 35-3 2nd AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence 28-0 2nd
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson 27-3 3rd AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent 21-6 half AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve 14-20 3rd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna 31-20 3rd AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson 34-3 3rd AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata 44-7 final
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 10-24 4th; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 17-25 4th; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 21-13 half; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT 7:00pm AND Catholic loss vs Norwich 35-14 final
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

Thanks for the update. One small correction about the MIAC. It'll be either Bethel or Augsburg (not Augustana) who plays SJU in the championship game. BU currently leads 21-7 at halftime.

I always get the the MIAC Aug and the CCIW Aug mixed up :-[

Washington & Lee survives yet another tight game, this time against Ferrum 28-24 and win the ODAC.

Games are finishing up left and right now.

Locked
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 56-7 4th
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 59-14 final
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 59-20 final
E8: Cortland
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 30-0 final
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 66-13 final
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 37-23 final
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 73-7 final
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 28-24 final
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 28-27 final
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 52-33 final
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 7-13 final

Single game scenario
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 32-20 4th
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 28-7 2nd
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 28-0 2nd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win vs Moravian
CCC: Endicott win @ Nichols; otherwise Husson @ W New England winner
ECFC: Anna Maria win vs SUNY-Maritime
HCAC: Mount St Joseph @ Rose-Hulman winner
LL: RPI win @ Union; Union win gives title to Ithaca
MIAA: Albion win vs Alma
MIAC: St John's vs Bethel winner
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Chicago; Chicago win plus Monmouth win vs Knox creates 3 way tie
NEWMAC: Springfield win vs Catholic;
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Case Western Reserve
UMAC: Greenville win vs Minnesota-Morris

Whitworth lost, so there will only be one NWC playoff team.

Aurora, Linfield and Redlands all locked up their playoff spot so that means half the field is set. 11 conferences will be decided next week plus those 5 elusive Pool C bids

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 06, 2021, 11:27:02 PM
Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

UW-O is still very much in the Pool C hunt.

Quote from: Baldini on November 07, 2021, 12:18:51 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 06, 2021, 11:27:02 PM
Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

UW-O is still very much in the Pool C hunt.

I agree with the 12th rank SOS and a possible RR win against Huntingdon. They will certainly be on the table after LaCrosse. They still have a good River Falls team and can definitely play themselves in next weekend. The Committee has placed 3 WIAC schools into the tournament and it isn't unprecedented. There are many factors going into next week and a lot of games that don't necessarily have playoff implications will indirectly have playoff implications. As I aforementioned the Catholic and Springfield matchup will factor into either Union or R-MC getting a RR win. Also, R-MC playing Hampden-Sydney will create a common opponent between R-MC and Baldwin-Wallace. I do know that they'll be behind LaCrosse, Birmingham-Southern, and a 9-1 Pool C Ithaca. The next depends on how the National Committee chooses to view a Baldwin Wallace, R-MC, Hardin-Simmons, Johns Hopkins, and Wheaton. Criteria aside, most believe that the Committee will use common sense and place Wheaton (Ill.) and little less likely Hardin-Simmons into the playoffs. If the committee goes that route, Oshkosh will have a huge argument, but I think a close loss to 2nd place WIAC, somewhat good lost to #1 WIAC, and an "escape" to the #7 Ranked Region 3 team may not be enough. I know Salisbury in 2010 actually went 7-2 with a blowout win against playoff participant CNU and two very close losses to undefeated Wesley and one loss Hampden-Sydney (both playoff participants) got them in late. Would I be surprised if they got in No. If they were selected on selection Sunday, I'm sure they'd be sent to either St. John's or Linfield in my bracket scenario. It's amazing still a lot of factors going into the Week 11.

Based on the projected rankings (https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2021/giving-order-to-regional-rankings) before the weekend plus action from the weekend, here's how I have Pool C

R1: Salve Regina (8-2, .492, 1-1) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0)
R2: Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1), Union (8-1, .530, 0-1) (If RPI wins, they're pool A, if Union wins Ithaca is pool A and Union would be first on the board)
R3: Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1), Hardin-Simmons (7-1, .528, 0-1)
R4: Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1), Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2)
R5: Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1), Coe (7-2, .517, 1-1)
R6: La Crosse (6-1, .608, 1-1), Bethel (8-1, .541, 0-1), Oshkosh (5-2, .587, 0-2),

With these selections I'd say La Crosse, Ithaca, Birmingham-Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin-Simmons.
Left at the table: Salve Regina (8-2, .492, 1-1), Union (8-1, .530, 0-1), Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2), Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1), Bethel (8-1, .541, 0-1)

If we had no criteria and were just selecting I think we'd all say Wheaton 1st selection... but they're very much on the edge of not being selected and their SoS will drop again next week.

If Union beats RPI, then Ithaca is Pool A and Union would take their spot being selected. If Bethel beats St John's, then St John's would steal a Pool C bid.

As it stands Bethel is a bit of a blocker for UWO. If GAC gets ranked (good chance of this), that's a RRO W for Bethel, plus a decisive win against UWP, who UWO beat in very close game. SOS will be in UWO's favor, but will it be enough to jump Bethel, if they lose a close one to SJU? Anyone's best guess how the RAC treats a second loss to SJU.

If SJU loses, then we obviously have to reshuffle the entire deck. They'd be 3-1 RRO (assuming GAC is ranked) plus a really strong SOS. Probably the first off the board for Pool C.

Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 07, 2021, 03:35:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Seems about right, except that it would make sense to ship Redlands to MHB and the random other team to Linfield just for the sake of not having the Redlands/Linfield rematch (I know this is not necessary but would make sense since it seems like both teams are flying anyway)....

Thx FC and Monrovia.
I have trouble pulling 2 Pool Cs out of Region 3.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:55:00 PM
Thx FC and Monrovia.
I have trouble pulling 2 Pool Cs out of Region 3.

Yeah--if HSU doesn't get in then I think you see Trinity go to MHB (hard draw for Trinity) and Redlands likely to Linfield. 

IMHO, a Trinity at UMHB 1st round game would at least a #5 at #2 matchup.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 07, 2021, 03:35:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

Re Wheaton:  A few years ago a case was made that a one-loss Mount Union team should not be granted a Pool C bid if you went strictly by published criteria.

The committee said:  Screw that. 

Well, Wheaton doesn't have the championship history of Mount Union but I have to believe that if Wheaton wins the Millikin game, Wheaton's in.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 07, 2021, 05:40:12 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 07, 2021, 03:35:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

Very plausible bracket! +1

Quote from: edward de vere on November 07, 2021, 07:05:29 PM
Re Wheaton:  A few years ago a case was made that a one-loss Mount Union team should not be granted a Pool C bid if you went strictly by published criteria.

The committee said:  Screw that. 

Well, Wheaton doesn't have the championship history of Mount Union but I have to believe that if Wheaton wins the Millikin game, Wheaton's in.

North Central was in the same boat in 2019.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 07, 2021, 05:40:12 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 07, 2021, 03:35:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

+1. I love this bracket! 

I've not seen a direct comparison discussion between St. John's and UMHB as the presumed 4th #1 "seed". Does anyone have an opinion of which team has the inside track if they both win out?

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 08, 2021, 07:38:13 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 07, 2021, 05:40:12 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 07, 2021, 03:35:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2021, 03:03:11 PM
Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.

Well, first who's in the bracket... Linfield, Redlands, UMHB, Trinity, Hardin-Simmons (pool C), Birmingham-Southern (pool C), Huntingdon, and  ____

I feel the two pods are likely led by Linfield and UMHB... BSC and Huntingdon will be matched up for non-flight reasons, that leaves Redlands, Hardin-Simmons, Trinity, and the 8th team having two of them at the top two. Can't see an unbeaten Trinity being one of them and not H-S at UMHB. That leaves Trinity to host H-S since that's not a flight. So Redlands and the 8th team will head to Linfield and UMHB.

So Redlands up to Linfield (non-conference rematch), Hardin-Simmons to Trinity, Huntingdon at BSC, and someone gets shipped to UMHB... maybe a team like Husson if they get in and are isolated in Maine. That's just two flights first round. Then the 2nd round could be just 1 flight if the Texas games are paired and the Alabama game heads to the west coast.

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

+1. I love this bracket! 

I've not seen a direct comparison discussion between St. John's and UMHB as the presumed 4th #1 "seed". Does anyone have an opinion of which team has the inside track if they both win out?

based on criteria you'd think it would be St Johns (higher SOS and more wins against RRO).

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 07, 2021, 05:40:12 PM


Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

Salisbury's triple option offense on the Butterfield grass in late November, against a defense allowing 10 points a game?

Sign me up for that, every day of the week

I'm waiting impatiently until we get to the selection.  How/when do they do the playoff selection???  Is there a show we can stream???  Much drama on the hilltop as we wait this one out, but we'd be very happy with a rematch with Huntingdon at our house this time.

Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 08, 2021, 09:17:44 AM
I'm waiting impatiently until we get to the selection.  How/when do they do the playoff selection???  Is there a show we can stream???  Much drama on the hilltop as we wait this one out, but we'd be very happy with a rematch with Huntingdon at our house this time.

It'll be on the 14th at 5:30 PM Eastern time. The NCAA usually has a stream that you can watch, the D3 guys usually do a great job of sending that out in advance. It'll be interesting to see who gets in and who is left at home. A lot of great football teams going for only 5 at large bids!

So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

You are correct? However, I went over this scenario that included W&L to B-SC, RHIT to Huntingdon, but those scenarios left a drastic imbalance to multiple regions. You'd move Aurora to Whitewater, CMU to W&L spot,Wheaton to Linfield,  UW-Lacrosse to DePauw, Carnegie to Mount etc.. I still managed to get less than 8 total flights if higher seeds one, but if there were upsets, probably pushes the total number of flights between 8 to 10.

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better. 

Quote from: IC798891 on November 08, 2021, 09:07:37 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 07, 2021, 05:40:12 PM


Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology - Cost Effective Edition (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)
This bracket is a very cost basis bracket with there being less than 8 flights if higher seeds winning. Also, #1 Seeds are NCC, UW-W, St. John's, and Mount Union. Also, the Pool C's are UW-Lacrosse,Hardin-Simmons, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton.

Salisbury's triple option offense on the Butterfield grass in late November, against a defense allowing 10 points a game?

Sign me up for that, every day of the week

I think a 9-1 LL Conference champ would definitely have a 2/3 seed, most likely hosting two home games and avoiding a potential 2nd round matchup against Mount and/or Delaware Valley. However, a 2 loss conference champion Ithaca may not get a home game and probably drops to a 5 seed. A 9-1 at large Ithaca would likely get a home game, but two game would be pusining if they are a #3 seed in a bracket with Mount, and Delaware Valley. Unless you move Delaware Valley to the NCC Bracket as it's #2, then moving up to #2 seed in Mount bracket. 

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better.

LOL you have been around WAY too long to think that the NCAA's primary consideration is making tournaments better.   Unless you define "better" as "cost effective."

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better.

I don't think that would be the case this year if H-SC makes the playoff, my projections based upon W&L going to B-SC, RHIT going to Huntingdon still left H-SC going to Trinity and Redlands to UMHB. I have Albion to Central, Wheaton to Linfield, LaCrosse v. DePauw.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 08, 2021, 12:19:07 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better.

I don't think that would be the case this year if H-SC makes the playoff, my projections based upon W&L going to B-SC, RHIT going to Huntingdon still left H-SC going to Trinity and Redlands to UMHB. I have Albion to Central, Wheaton to Linfield, LaCrosse v. DePauw.

RHIT vs. Huntingdon also has no business being a round 1 game.  Wheaton at Linfield DEFIINITELY should not be played in round 1 especially if that's a byproduct of shoehorning something like Huntingdon or BSC vs. Greenville or RHIT into the first round in the name of "geographic proximity". 

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:29:12 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 08, 2021, 12:19:07 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better.

I don't think that would be the case this year if H-SC makes the playoff, my projections based upon W&L going to B-SC, RHIT going to Huntingdon still left H-SC going to Trinity and Redlands to UMHB. I have Albion to Central, Wheaton to Linfield, LaCrosse v. DePauw.

RHIT vs. Huntingdon also has no business being a round 1 game.  Wheaton at Linfield DEFIINITELY should not be played in round 1 especially if that's a byproduct of shoehorning something like Huntingdon or BSC vs. Greenville or RHIT into the first round in the name of "geographic proximity".

You are indeed correct that it would be travesty, but I'm just throwing out scenarios that would work for just "geographic proximity" sake. You can have Wheaton go to Central and Albion fly to Linfield. Which would make more sense. This scenario would then result in Wheaton going to UW-W in 2nd round and LaCrosse going to NCC 2nd round.

I actually do like my cost-effective bracket. It has a maximum of 8 flights if higher sees win. Also, if UMHB moves to #1 seed in their bracket and move Linfield to #2 in UMHB bracke and then move St. John's to #2 in UW-W bracket, that actually cuts the flights down to 7.

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:29:12 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 08, 2021, 12:19:07 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2021, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on November 08, 2021, 10:24:49 AM
So with the bus ride radius now being 600 instead of 500 I did a quick check for Huntingdon possibilities;
Rose-Hulman - 549
Mt St Jospeh - 561
Greenville - 576

A few others now in range are Hanover, Franklin, Ferrum, Averett(since they are moving to ODAC), ETBU. Could be others that I didn't think to check

It would be a bummer if they forced a UMHB/Trinity game in the first round because something like Huntingdon/Greenville was available inside of 600 miles. I don't think that makes the tournament better.

I don't think that would be the case this year if H-SC makes the playoff, my projections based upon W&L going to B-SC, RHIT going to Huntingdon still left H-SC going to Trinity and Redlands to UMHB. I have Albion to Central, Wheaton to Linfield, LaCrosse v. DePauw.

RHIT vs. Huntingdon also has no business being a round 1 game.  Wheaton at Linfield DEFIINITELY should not be played in round 1 especially if that's a byproduct of shoehorning something like Huntingdon or BSC vs. Greenville or RHIT into the first round in the name of "geographic proximity".

Mississippi College @ Huntingdon in '09 didn't really have any business being a round 1 game. Seems like I remember Hendrix @ Huntingdon being questioned in '15. Remember, they had to make a rule to stop making ASC rematches in the first round. Do they change this rule if they don't intend to use it? I don't know if they put us on a plane unless they HAVE to.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 08, 2021, 12:47:04 PM
You can have Wheaton go to Central and Albion fly to Linfield. Which would make more sense. This scenario would then result in Wheaton going to UW-W in 2nd round and LaCrosse going to NCC 2nd round.

Wow Central, looks like we might as well turn in the shoulder pads after Saturday's game.

Quote from: Schipper Strong on November 08, 2021, 11:45:13 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 08, 2021, 12:47:04 PM
You can have Wheaton go to Central and Albion fly to Linfield. Which would make more sense. This scenario would then result in Wheaton going to UW-W in 2nd round and LaCrosse going to NCC 2nd round.

Wow Central, looks like we might as well turn in the shoulder pads after Saturday's game.

This is the conversation's that are typically had during playoffs or playoff bracket releases. I would think that the committee would give Central the benefit of the doubt of a 2/3 seed at least. As such, in this random scenario of projected lower seeds playing each other in 1st round, creates scenarios where teams that are ranked in Top 10 faceoff in both round 1 and round 2. This is a common complaint when in a bracket if funding was not an issue, you'd expect to see those matchups in the 3rd or 4th round. Nothing against Central, just projecting wins based off ranking. I know games are won on the field here in DIII land.

A)  What an awesome bracket... great job.  I think it's close for sure. 
B)  I think the if Carnegie Mellon wins that bid this weekend, they could be a team put in the bracket with the Texas or west teams.  It happens often.  This would move Aurora or Albion into the NCC/Mount Bracket. 
C)  I'm glad I'm not on the committee.  It seems this year, even more than in the past, is extremely difficult to choose which 5 teams get the pool C.  In the past it seems that only one was up for grabs because the 1 loss OAC, MIAC, WIAC, and ASC teams already had 4 of the 5.  Now it feels like there are 6-7 conference's that have that qualified 1 loss team.  CCIW, CC, LL, SAA... It it ended up with OAC, WIAC, CCIW, ASC, MIAC (if St.Johns loses to Bethel)...would anyone be surprised?  I wouldn't.  Would deserving teams get left out...you betcha...does one always get left out...you betcha..

I love this time of year

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 09, 2021, 04:10:52 PM
A)  What an awesome bracket... great job.  I think it's close for sure. 
B)  I think the if Carnegie Mellon wins that bid this weekend, they could be a team put in the bracket with the Texas or west teams.  It happens often.  This would move Aurora or Albion into the NCC/Mount Bracket. 
C)  I'm glad I'm not on the committee.  It seems this year, even more than in the past, is extremely difficult to choose which 5 teams get the pool C.  In the past it seems that only one was up for grabs because the 1 loss OAC, MIAC, WIAC, and ASC teams already had 4 of the 5.  Now it feels like there are 6-7 conference's that have that qualified 1 loss team.  CCIW, CC, LL, SAA... It it ended up with OAC, WIAC, CCIW, ASC, MIAC (if St.Johns loses to Bethel)...would anyone be surprised?  I wouldn't.  Would deserving teams get left out...you betcha...does one always get left out...you betcha..

I love this time of year

It's all in the perspective.... A fan of MTU, UMHB, UWW, STJU etc is just looking to see where their juggernaut is seeded while a fan of a team with regular but infrequent Playoff berths is just hoping to somehow get in.  There are only 5 Pool C's and the same "power conferences" seem to get them year after year. Who says a 9-1 OAC runner-up is better than a 9-1 runner-up from the Liberty League, CC or PAC? There's next to no crossover play to show a head to head. Yet again this year most of you expect the WIAC, MIAC, ASC, CCIW and OAC to send 2 teams. I'm a fan of a team in the 7th ranked conference in D3 football as determined by guru Greg Thomas (Wally Wabash). That would be the Liberty League. It's been a great year for the LL. Four different teams, Union, Ithaca, RPI and Hobart, have been ranked in the Top 25 at one point or another this season.  The LL has an outstanding 20-7 OOC record. Going into week #11 three teams are 8-1 with the fourth 7-2 and yes, the AQ is not settled yet. But this is about whether you love this time of year. After Saturday there will be a LL champ, Ithaca or RPI, or quite possibly 2 teams that finish 9-1, Ithaca and Union. Can a 9-1 LL runner-up get a Pool C?... Sure hope so...But history would indicate no. The LL(the 7th best conference in the country) hasn't had 2 teams in the tourney since 2006.  

Sure I love this time of year. The champ is determined on the field...I just wish "the field" wasn't so predetermined. 

Quote from: UfanBill on November 09, 2021, 07:02:08 PM

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 09, 2021, 04:10:52 PM
A)  What an awesome bracket... great job.  I think it's close for sure. 
B)  I think the if Carnegie Mellon wins that bid this weekend, they could be a team put in the bracket with the Texas or west teams.  It happens often.  This would move Aurora or Albion into the NCC/Mount Bracket. 
C)  I'm glad I'm not on the committee.  It seems this year, even more than in the past, is extremely difficult to choose which 5 teams get the pool C.  In the past it seems that only one was up for grabs because the 1 loss OAC, MIAC, WIAC, and ASC teams already had 4 of the 5.  Now it feels like there are 6-7 conference's that have that qualified 1 loss team.  CCIW, CC, LL, SAA... It it ended up with OAC, WIAC, CCIW, ASC, MIAC (if St.Johns loses to Bethel)...would anyone be surprised?  I wouldn't.  Would deserving teams get left out...you betcha...does one always get left out...you betcha..

I love this time of year

It's all in the perspective.... A fan of MTU, UMHB, UWW, STJU etc is just looking to see where their juggernaut is seeded while a fan of a team with regular but infrequent Playoff berths is just hoping to somehow get in.  There are only 5 Pool C's and the same "power conferences" seem to get them year after year. Who says a 9-1 OAC runner-up is better than a 9-1 runner-up from the Liberty League, CC or PAC? There's next to no crossover play to show a head to head. Yet again this year most of you expect the WIAC, MIAC, ASC, CCIW and OAC to send 2 teams. I'm a fan of a team in the 7th ranked conference in D3 football as determined by guru Greg Thomas (Wally Wabash). That would be the Liberty League. It's been a great year for the LL. Four different teams, Union, Ithaca, RPI and Hobart, have been ranked in the Top 25 at one point or another this season.  The LL has an outstanding 20-7 OOC record. Going into week #11 three teams are 8-1 with the fourth 7-2 and yes, the AQ is not settled yet. But this is about whether you love this time of year. After Saturday there will be a LL champ, Ithaca or RPI, or quite possibly 2 teams that finish 9-1, Ithaca and Union. Can a 9-1 LL runner-up get a Pool C?... Sure hope so...But history would indicate no. The LL(the 7th best conference in the country) hasn't had 2 teams in the tourney since 2006.  

Sure I love this time of year. The champ is determined on the field...I just wish "the field" wasn't so predetermined.

To be fair, in that span since 2006 I think I counted just 1 team in pool C with 1 loss which was St Lawrence in 2016. That's more the reason why the LL hasn't had 2 teams in the tournament. No conference is going to get many 2nd teams in if they beat each other and take everyone out of Pool C consideration.
Worst case scenario for the LL this year is RPI wins and Ithaca loses... RPI gets pool A and both Ithaca and Union sit on the outside with 2 losses.

Quote from: UfanBill on November 09, 2021, 07:02:08 PM
The LL(the 7th best conference in the country) hasn't had 2 teams in the tourney since 2006.  

The LL hasn't been the 7th best conference in the country since 2006. They were downright terrible for some years at the start of the decade. The low point was probably 2010, when the Pool A St. Lawrence finished the season 5-5, getting waxed by 6-4 Ithaca and 5-5 Utica over in the E8.

Takes some time for a reputation to recover from that

Rankings are out (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/second-regional-ranking). Time for prognosticators to get busy
First things I noticed... BSC is indeed ahead of H-S in R3, Merchant Marine #2 in R1, Oshkosh behind Gustavus in R6

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2021, 04:35:46 PM
Rankings are out (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/second-regional-ranking). Time for prognosticators to get busy
First things I noticed... BSC is indeed ahead of H-S in R3, Merchant Marine #2 in R1, Oshkosh behind Gustavus in R6

Here is a bracket for the Island Teams

#6 Redlands to #3 Linfield
#8 Someone to #1 SJU
#4 Trinity to #2 UMHB
#7 Huntingdon to #5 BSC

HSU stays home.

No PAC teams in the rankings at all.  Probably if the tarts beat the sparts then they'll get in, but we wont see that ranking.  Also, they kewpt 3 OAC teams in, which gives Mount 3 RRO wins.  Does that put them in the #2 spot overall, separating them from NCC?  Probably after BW/JCU this weekend then they'll be down to 2 teams

First at the table
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 2-1) @ 9-0 R2#1 Cortland
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs 6-3 R4#7 John Carroll
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
UW-La Crosse (6-1, .608, 1-1) vs 3-6 UW-Eau Claire

Ithaca is the obvious choice assuming they beat Cortland. If Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) beats RPI, that gives Ithaca pool A and I believe Union will jump Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) to be first at the table for region 2.
Unless Union and Ithaca both lose, the first two picks are La Crosse and the LL team.

Round 3
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs 6-3 R4#7 John Carroll
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Bethel (8-1, .541, 1-1) vs 9-0 R6#2 St John's

Now it's getting tougher... Bethel would have to get a 2nd loss to be pool C but with Gustavus jumping in the rankings to be the next team below them, they must stay ahead of them. That also added a RRO win for them they didn't have previously. Baldwin Wallace might be able to overtake Birmingham-Southern in SoS and I'd take their RRO results a bit ahead of BSC as well. So the decision would be between Baldwin Wallace with the one loss or Bethel with the better SoS and an extra RRO loss (John Carroll wouldn't remain ranked to give BW a 2nd win)... I just have a hard time picking a 2 loss team this early so I'll take Baldwin Wallace

Round 4
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2) @ 4-5 Ohio Northern
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Bethel (8-1, .541, 1-1) vs 9-0 R6#2 St John's

Assuming Baldwin Wallace wins this weekend, that would take away Heidelberg's RRO win. The choice now is BSC or Bethel... and the same question arises as last round... if the Bethel game is close like the first meeting I'll slot them in. A surprise 2 loss selection of Bethel

Round 5
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2) @ 4-5 Ohio Northern
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Gustavus Adolphus (7-2, .594, 1-2) @ 4-5 Concordia-Moorhead

Based on the comparisons throughout, I think the only selection would be Birmingham-Southern. Gustavus has better SoS than Bethel did in the last round, but the RRO aren't as good. Plus BSC has been sitting at the table being discussed from the beginning while the Gusties just joined. I feel like there should be better selections at the table still but here I'll take Birmingham-Southern

BSC blocks Hardin-Simmons (7-1, .528, 0-1) from ever reaching the table. They would have a similar (but I think slightly better) case as Wheaton. Everyone left at the table either has little to show for RRO or has 2 losses.

That means my picks are Baldwin Wallace, Bethel, Birmingham-Southern, a 1 loss LL team, and UW-La Crosse. A St John's loss would just swap them with Bethel, a Union and Ithaca loss would open up a spot. Now we sit back and wait for chaos to happen this weekend and really shake up pool C.

The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:18:36 PM
The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2021, 10:25:10 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:18:36 PM
The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

It has been posted now. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

FCG, Great work. I understand your process and think your reasoning is sound. There are other ways to cut this obviously. At the end of the process I don't think there is any way (and I'd bet a lot of money if I were a bettor) that any 2 loss team is getting in before a 1 loss Wheaton team, or a 1 loss Hardin Simmons for that matter.

I am interested to see how the committee handles the RRO's this year. In past years there were 40 teams with regional rankings. This year, with the realignment, there are 46. That gives teams a lot more RRO's but does it dilute that data a bit? Don't know. In Region 4, the OAC has 4 ranked teams, in part because the other leagues don't have enough good teams. That gives Mt Union a disproportionate number of RRO's. Will that matter? Don't know. Days before we find out.

FCGrizzlies...Thanks for your efforts. As a Liberty League fan I like the way you think. With their outstanding OOC record this year and 4 teams regionally ranked, it's great to see they get your respect and recognition. Hope the committee thinks similarly.

I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 10, 2021, 04:54:54 PM
No PAC teams in the rankings at all.  Probably if the tarts beat the sparts then they'll get in, but we wont see that ranking.  Also, they kewpt 3 OAC teams in, which gives Mount 3 RRO wins.  Does that put them in the #2 spot overall, separating them from NCC?  Probably after BW/JCU this weekend then they'll be down to 2 teams

I do not think so. Based on the "previous year's playoff result" tiebreaker, I think the committee will lean toward making sure NCC and UWW lead the opposite halves. Mount Union could get seeded on the top line and host a Quarter-Final, but #3 overall is their absolute ceiling barring upsets.

Does anyone know what the three-way tiebreakers in the NEWMAC are?

Edit: and the UMAC?

Quote from: edward de vere on November 10, 2021, 10:53:10 PM
I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

Welcome to the joys of 27 conferences and just 5 at large bids. Good teams are going to be left out. Hardin-Simmons has the additional handicap that they're behind Birmingham-Southern in the rankings and they aren't getting picked until at least the 3rd round. So until BSC gets selected H-S isn't even in the discussion.

Honestly, I'm only confident in La Crosse and a 1 loss LL team getting in. After that it could depend on what data the committee thinks is better looking.

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 11:15:31 PM
Does anyone know what the three-way tiebreakers in the NEWMAC are?

Edit: and the UMAC?

If Minnesota-Morris beats Greenville and Martin Luther beats Northwestern their would be a 3-way tie and it would go to (E) Random draw. 

NCAA Championship Automatic Qualifier ("AQ") Determination & Tiebreaker Criteria

A. Best conference record (based upon winning % of conference contests)
B. If two way tie then head‐to‐head result
C. If three‐way tie then head‐to‐head results amongst three (2‐0 advances)
D. If three‐way tie without 2‐0 record, then record against rest of conference standings in
descending order of finish (4th place, 5th place, etc.)
E. Random draw (if three or more teams) or coin flip (two teams) by UMAC Commissioner

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:33:00 PM

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2021, 10:25:10 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:18:36 PM
The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

It has been posted now. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

definitely says 500 miles.

Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2021, 11:16:44 PM

Quote from: edward de vere on November 10, 2021, 10:53:10 PM
I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

Welcome to the joys of 27 conferences and just 5 at large bids. Good teams are going to be left out. Hardin-Simmons has the additional handicap that they're behind Birmingham-Southern in the rankings and they aren't getting picked until at least the 3rd round. So until BSC gets selected H-S isn't even in the discussion.


Honestly, I'm only confident in La Crosse and a 1 loss LL team getting in. After that it could depend on what data the committee thinks is better looking.

Okay, I understand you're a fun-with-numbers guy, at least in this discussion.  And you're going strictly by stated criteria as you read the criteria.  AND I think your passion is cool; I like people with a passion.

Fine.

But on neutral fields, give me your betting lines on the four games between  Wheaton and Hardin-Simmons versus Baldwin Wallace (and I'm an OAC guy!) and the LL second banana.

Look, nobody is a bigger fan of me than intellectual consistency.  I'm just not a fan of foolish consistency.  I can't see the committee leaving out two of the top twelve or so teams in the nation based on way-too-small sample numbers.

(Of course none of this matters.  Neither one of us has a vote!)

Quote from: edward de vere on November 11, 2021, 12:59:57 AM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2021, 11:16:44 PM

Quote from: edward de vere on November 10, 2021, 10:53:10 PM
I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

Welcome to the joys of 27 conferences and just 5 at large bids. Good teams are going to be left out. Hardin-Simmons has the additional handicap that they're behind Birmingham-Southern in the rankings and they aren't getting picked until at least the 3rd round. So until BSC gets selected H-S isn't even in the discussion.


Honestly, I'm only confident in La Crosse and a 1 loss LL team getting in. After that it could depend on what data the committee thinks is better looking.

Okay, I understand you're a fun-with-numbers guy, at least in this discussion.  And you're going strictly by stated criteria as you read the criteria.  AND I think your passion is cool; I like people with a passion.

Fine.

But on neutral fields, give me your betting lines on the four games between  Wheaton and Hardin-Simmons versus Baldwin Wallace (and I'm an OAC guy!) and the LL second banana.

Look, nobody is a bigger fan of me than intellectual consistency.  I'm just not a fan of foolish consistency.  I can't see the committee leaving out two of the top twelve or so teams in the nation based on way-too-small sample numbers.

(Of course none of this matters.  Neither one of us has a vote!)

I'd set the line around a TD for all four games. Wheaton a slightly bigger favorite than H-S, Ithaca a slightly bigger underdog than BW.

I've never claimed Wheaton or H-S weren't subjectively one of the 5 best teams in pool C. But the committee has to be more objective than us so how far can they stray from the criteria when that doesn't point to who we feel should be picked?
Take a look at the Region 3 rankings... Birmingham-Southern is ahead of Hardin-Simmons. Similar SoS, same overall record, a one score loss to an unbeaten, but the difference is BSC has a win against barely ranked #7 Huntingdon. Would I pick Birmingham to beat Hardin-Simmons head to head... no. But that right there tells me only having an 0-1 RRO, even if it's a 6 point loss to one of the purple powers simply isn't enough to guarantee a spot if the other criteria isn't there. I think H-S has a very similar but slightly better resume than Wheaton, but Wheaton will be discussed from the beginning while Hardin-Simmons has to wait on BSC to be selected.

Isn't HS and Bethel with only 1 loss better than Bethel or UWO with 2 losses? Winning % is a primary criteria, more reliable than the NCAA's SOS formula, and that sure seems like clear indication without needing to get to secondary criteria.

D3.com/Wally has their projections based on latest regional rankings:
https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2021/playoff-projection

Look, I'm an IC fan (and despite my 30 posts, I've been around awhile, just in different names) And this is pretty much my take

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2021, 02:15:31 AM
I've never claimed Wheaton or H-S weren't subjectively one of the 5 best teams in pool C. But the committee has to be more objective than us so how far can they stray from the criteria when that doesn't point to who we feel should be picked?

I'm not biased enough to think that IC would beat an H-S or a Wheaton.

But the criteria is the criteria. If we're just going to ignore it, why have criteria at all?

The system we have is not the system I would use. But the one thing I do like about this system is that, for the most part, things are objective. Win your conference, and you're in. Have stronger SOS numbers, and better results against RR opponents, and you'll be in through Pool C.

As Denzel said in Training Day "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove"

The problem with that thinking is it is extreme. We don't have to "not have criteria at all" just because a bunch of smart football people on a committee make an interpretation of what might be best using their expertise. The criteria are not meant to be a bible, they are a blueprint. There is room for the committee to use their brain and stay true to the criteria.

Quote from: IC798891 on November 11, 2021, 10:56:03 AM
Look, I'm an IC fan (and despite my 30 posts, I've been around awhile, just in different names) And this is pretty much my take

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2021, 02:15:31 AM
I've never claimed Wheaton or H-S weren't subjectively one of the 5 best teams in pool C. But the committee has to be more objective than us so how far can they stray from the criteria when that doesn't point to who we feel should be picked?

I'm not biased enough to think that IC would beat an H-S or a Wheaton.

But the criteria is the criteria. If we're just going to ignore it, why have criteria at all?

The system we have is not the system I would use. But the one thing I do like about this system is that, for the most part, things are objective. Win your conference, and you're in. Have stronger SOS numbers, and better results against RR opponents, and you'll be in through Pool C.

As Denzel said in Training Day "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove"

We won't recount Alonzo's fate.  :)   

The criteria are imperfect and straining to capture the teams that ought to be selected in these spots.  One major issue at present is SOS.  SOS has had waning utility as more and more conferences have expanded to 10 (or more) teams and the amount of non-conference play has been reduced.  I think you could definitely see some RACs place less weight on SOS than I might or others who like to pick apart this data.  I'm not sure what the sweet spot is on SOS anymore, and I think yesterday's rankings indicate that I'm not the only one. 

I also think there should be extra conversation about some of the ranked opponent results.  Not just results against top ranked opponents, but results against lower ranked opponents.  Region 4 is atrocious this year.  How much extra credit should we really be giving Baldwin Wallace for beating the 4th place team in their conference?  Of all of my Pool C picks, BW is the one I like least, even though they were the third selection. 

All of which is to say, it's important to have knowledgeable human beings on that call to talk these things out and ask those questions.  The criteria are very objective, but not infallible.  The committee's job has only gotten harder as the number of at-large bids have reduced over time and this year's Pool C selections will be very difficult to be sure. 

 

sorry if this has been asked/answered already, but is it known what constitutes a RRO?  is it regionally ranked once and that opponent is always a RRO? or does it only matter who is in the final regional rankings? or 2 out of 3 weeks ranked = RRO?  or some other strange NCAA version of nonsense?

Quote from: D3fanboy on November 11, 2021, 12:29:12 PM
sorry if this has been asked/answered already, but is it known what constitutes a RRO?  is it regionally ranked once and that opponent is always a RRO? or does it only matter who is in the final regional rankings? or 2 out of 3 weeks ranked = RRO?  or some other strange NCAA version of nonsense?

At one time in history, it was once ranked, always ranked.  That's not the case any more.  The pool of ranked teams are going to come from the penultimate rankings (the set published yesterday) and the final rankings that the RACs will submit at the conclusion of Saturday's games, which usually get published sometime the week after selection.   

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2021, 12:45:01 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on November 11, 2021, 12:29:12 PM
sorry if this has been asked/answered already, but is it known what constitutes a RRO?  is it regionally ranked once and that opponent is always a RRO? or does it only matter who is in the final regional rankings? or 2 out of 3 weeks ranked = RRO?  or some other strange NCAA version of nonsense?

At one time in history, it was once ranked, always ranked.  That's not the case any more.  The pool of ranked teams are going to come from the penultimate rankings (the set published yesterday) and the final rankings that the RACs will submit at the conclusion of Saturday's games, which usually get published sometime the week after selection.

Thanks!   I wont have to root for JCU any longer

Quote from: USee on November 11, 2021, 11:02:22 AM
There is room for the committee to use their brain and stay true to the criteria.

Listen, I'm not naive. I know that all this is code for: "We all know those East teams aren't national contenders, do we really need to put the LL runner-up in just so they lose in the 2nd round by 28 points (if they avoid a first-round upset), while a team that might make the national quarters or semis like H-S or Wheaton is at left home?"

Which, sure. I said elsewhere, I don't think Ithaca's on the level of those teams. But ultimately, I don't like the mentality that we use the criteria, except when we don't. Because while it might be super cut and dry in everyone's mind now, because the East is the East, someday down the line, it's not going to be, and we're going to have all these complaints about some other in/out decision, and someone thinks the committee should  stick to the criteria and other people think they should "use their brain."

The system is imperfect. There are ways I'd like to see it changed too. But I see the positives in using criteria for at-large bids — though perhaps, to Wally's point, the criteria could be different

For the record, if the LL teams do as expected, they should have no worries about getting into the field. Johns Hopkins? No clue.

As far as using your brain/staying true to the criteria, it's not an "or" it's an "and". You don't have to do one and not the other. They are meant to work together. As Wall points out earlier, things like SOS were meant for a time when teams were playing 2 and 3 non conference games. The CCIW used to have 8 teams so everyone played 3 non conference games. Now they have 10 teams so it's a lot different. The OAC has had it this way for decades.

So as SOS becomes a more difficult measuring tool due to its inherent flaws, other criteria have to be examined more carefully, which Wally rightly points out is apparently happening in some regions. Diving into details of RRO results (which includes wins and losses) is important in a world where making decisions with limited data sets is the norm.

Reading Wally's projections on the front page, if higher seeds hold, a Cortland at UMHB would be a fun game to watch in Round #3!

Quote from: IC798891 on November 11, 2021, 01:20:33 PM

Quote from: USee on November 11, 2021, 11:02:22 AM
There is room for the committee to use their brain and stay true to the criteria.

Listen, I'm not naive. I know that all this is code for: "We all know those East teams aren't national contenders, do we really need to put the LL runner-up in just so they lose in the 2nd round by 28 points (if they avoid a first-round upset), while a team that might make the national quarters or semis like H-S or Wheaton is at left home?"

Which, sure. I said elsewhere, I don't think Ithaca's on the level of those teams. But ultimately, I don't like the mentality that we use the criteria, except when we don't. Because while it might be super cut and dry in everyone's mind now, because the East is the East, someday down the line, it's not going to be, and we're going to have all these complaints about some other in/out decision, and someone thinks the committee should  stick to the criteria and other people think they should "use their brain."

The system is imperfect. There are ways I'd like to see it changed too. But I see the positives in using criteria for at-large bids — though perhaps, to Wally's point, the criteria could be different

IMO, if Ithaca gets to 9-1 and is not an automatic qualifier or if Union are 9-1 and not an automatic qualifier, those teams should absolutely be at-large selections without extensive conversation or controversy.  LL has earned that. 

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 12:07:42 AM
Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

I think this bracket solves the St. John's number 1 seed issue. It's possible! With the same number of flights. Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: USee on November 11, 2021, 01:31:17 PM

As far as using your brain/staying true to the criteria, it's not an "or" it's an "and". You don't have to do one and not the other. They are meant to work together.

Right, but that's kind of my point. If you can't tell (or agree on) when a decision was influenced by the criteria, or by how much, you're just going to get complaints about a lack of transparency and bias.

I think there's a perfectly logical argument for re-doing some of the criteria to better reflect certain things, as both you and Wally say. But I think having criteria to follow is a good thing.

Quote from: IC798891 on November 11, 2021, 02:21:04 PM

Quote from: USee on November 11, 2021, 01:31:17 PM

As far as using your brain/staying true to the criteria, it's not an "or" it's an "and". You don't have to do one and not the other. They are meant to work together.

Right, but that's kind of my point. If you can't tell (or agree on) when a decision was influenced by the criteria, or by how much, you're just going to get complaints about a lack of transparency and bias.

I think there's a perfectly logical argument for re-doing some of the criteria to better reflect certain things, as both you and Wally say. But I think having criteria to follow is a good thing.

One thing is certain, when a group of people go into a room to decide someone else's fate, there will be complaints about transparency and bias. That's more about human nature than D3 criteria.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 01:45:25 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 12:07:42 AM
Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

I think this bracket solves the St. John's number 1 seed issue. It's possible! With the same number of flights. Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

So you have MHB the last of your 2's and BSC the first 3rd with Trinity as 25th after beating BSC? So it is obvious you want St Johns as a 1 seed but I think your bracket is kinda wonky.

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2021, 11:50:37 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:33:00 PM

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2021, 10:25:10 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 10, 2021, 10:18:36 PM
The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

It has been posted now. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

definitely says 500 miles.

Updated 11/11, now says 600 miles though the other link still says 500.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/resources/travel/2021-22D3Champs_TravelPolicies.pdf

Quote from: SW1 on November 12, 2021, 02:22:56 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 01:45:25 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 12:07:42 AM
Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

I think this bracket solves the St. John's number 1 seed issue. It's possible! With the same number of flights. Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

So you have MHB the last of your 2's and BSC the first 3rd with Trinity as 25th after beating BSC? So it is obvious you want St Johns as a 1 seed but I think your bracket is kinda wonky.

I'm not sure if you have been following the discussion or listening to the podcast over the years. Please disregard the seedings on the bracket. In essence, the DIII bracket is never built to appropriate seeding. However, the committee will try to be fair in terms of matchups. In regards to UMHB being a #2 Seed and the Trinity first round matchup, UMHB in comparison to other potential #1 seeds (NCC, UWW, and St. John's) all have better previous playoff experience. This is done when discussing #1 seeds. As for Mount Union, they will have 2-4 RR wins, it also helps regionally as well. Now regarding the Trinity vs. UMHB, the committee has never wavered from Texas teams playing each other in the 1st round if they are not in the same conference and are within the mileage range. Every bracket the committee puts out is going to be "Wonky" because it will never be true to seeding. Someone is always going to get upset, with one of them always being UMHB 1st round/2nd round opponent, the others being R6 teams facing off in 2nd round or R1/R2 team having a clear path to quarters or Mount's cakewalk to Semi's. Unless you have a few million dollars to sponsor the playoffs, outcomes like this will always be, when all of DIII athletics get about 3% of the funding. If I'm a Trinity or UMHB fan, you root for both B-SC and Hardin-Simmons to get into the playoff by way of RPI beating Union, Cortland beating Ithaca, John Carroll beating Baldwin-Wallace, and even St. John's beating Bethel for the 2nd time this season.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 12, 2021, 07:39:30 AM

Quote from: SW1 on November 12, 2021, 02:22:56 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 01:45:25 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 12:07:42 AM
Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

I think this bracket solves the St. John's number 1 seed issue. It's possible! With the same number of flights. Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

So you have MHB the last of your 2's and BSC the first 3rd with Trinity as 25th after beating BSC? So it is obvious you want St Johns as a 1 seed but I think your bracket is kinda wonky.

I'm not sure if you have been following the discussion or listening to the podcast over the years. Please disregard the seedings on the bracket. In essence, the DIII bracket is never built to appropriate seeding. However, the committee will try to be fair in terms of matchups. In regards to UMHB being a #2 Seed and the Trinity first round matchup, UMHB in comparison to other potential #1 seeds (NCC, UWW, and St. John's) all have better previous playoff experience. This is done when discussing #1 seeds. As for Mount Union, they will have 2-4 RR wins, it also helps regionally as well. Now regarding the Trinity vs. UMHB, the committee has never wavered from Texas teams playing each other in the 1st round if they are not in the same conference and are within the mileage range. Every bracket the committee puts out is going to be "Wonky" because it will never be true to seeding. Someone is always going to get upset, with one of them always being UMHB 1st round/2nd round opponent, the others being R6 teams facing off in 2nd round or R1/R2 team having a clear path to quarters or Mount's cakewalk to Semi's. Unless you have a few million dollars to sponsor the playoffs, outcomes like this will always be, when all of DIII athletics get about 3% of the funding. If I'm a Trinity or UMHB fan, you root for both B-SC and Hardin-Simmons to get into the playoff by way of RPI beating Union, Cortland beating Ithaca, John Carroll beating Baldwin-Wallace, and even St. John's beating Bethel for the 2nd time this season.

Sad thing is that is only really about money. Every year they try to get the Island teams out early so they can limit travel. Always forcing them to play either first or second round and its usually 2 Texas teams. Let BSC fly to MHB first round and maybe second round can be a bus ride for Trinity vs MHB. That still limits a flight which seems to be the major criteria.

Quote from: SW1 on November 12, 2021, 02:45:04 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 12, 2021, 07:39:30 AM

Quote from: SW1 on November 12, 2021, 02:22:56 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 01:45:25 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 11, 2021, 12:07:42 AM
Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon

I think this bracket solves the St. John's number 1 seed issue. It's possible! With the same number of flights. Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

So you have MHB the last of your 2's and BSC the first 3rd with Trinity as 25th after beating BSC? So it is obvious you want St Johns as a 1 seed but I think your bracket is kinda wonky.

I'm not sure if you have been following the discussion or listening to the podcast over the years. Please disregard the seedings on the bracket. In essence, the DIII bracket is never built to appropriate seeding. However, the committee will try to be fair in terms of matchups. In regards to UMHB being a #2 Seed and the Trinity first round matchup, UMHB in comparison to other potential #1 seeds (NCC, UWW, and St. John's) all have better previous playoff experience. This is done when discussing #1 seeds. As for Mount Union, they will have 2-4 RR wins, it also helps regionally as well. Now regarding the Trinity vs. UMHB, the committee has never wavered from Texas teams playing each other in the 1st round if they are not in the same conference and are within the mileage range. Every bracket the committee puts out is going to be "Wonky" because it will never be true to seeding. Someone is always going to get upset, with one of them always being UMHB 1st round/2nd round opponent, the others being R6 teams facing off in 2nd round or R1/R2 team having a clear path to quarters or Mount's cakewalk to Semi's. Unless you have a few million dollars to sponsor the playoffs, outcomes like this will always be, when all of DIII athletics get about 3% of the funding. If I'm a Trinity or UMHB fan, you root for both B-SC and Hardin-Simmons to get into the playoff by way of RPI beating Union, Cortland beating Ithaca, John Carroll beating Baldwin-Wallace, and even St. John's beating Bethel for the 2nd time this season.

Sad thing is that is only really about money. Every year they try to get the Island teams out early so they can limit travel. Always forcing them to play either first or second round and its usually 2 Texas teams. Let BSC fly to MHB first round and maybe second round can be a bus ride for Trinity vs MHB. That still limits a flight which seems to be the major criteria.

The committee is charged with limiting flights in the First Round, not the later rounds.

What happens if UWL loses?

Looks like the Liberty League is out of the Pool C race.

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 02:59:39 PM
Looks like the Liberty League is out of the Pool C race.

Wow! What a day!

Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 04:29:00 PM
Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Another Crazy ending!!!!

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 04:29:00 PM
Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Johnnies just scored to help them breath a bit (edit: and got the W). BW also helped everyone by utterly collapsing against John Carroll.

Unless I misunderstood a lot of the scenarios, the games this week cleaned up things a lot for HSU and Wheaton.

Quote from: archgemini24 on November 13, 2021, 04:33:09 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 04:29:00 PM
Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Johnnies just scored to help them breath a bit (edit: and got the W). BW also helped everyone by utterly collapsing against John Carroll.

Unless I misunderstood a lot of the scenarios, the games this week cleaned up things a lot for HSU and Wheaton.

How I see it - UW-LaCrosse, Wheaton, Birmingham-Southern, Hardin-Simmons, and John's Hopkins or Bethel

This was a crazy day...

When is the selection show?

Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2021, 05:02:48 PM
When is the selection show?

How to watch the DIII football selection show
The 2021 Division III football selection show is Sunday, Nov. 14 at 5:30 p.m. ET right here on NCAA.com. Here's how to watch the 2021 selection show.

When: 5:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 14

Where: Live here on NCAA.com

You'll be able to follow the interactive bracket here, which will include live stats and scores from each round. The 2021 championship kicks off Saturday, Nov. 20 with first round games. The national championship, known as the Stagg Bowl, will be played Dec. 17 or 18 at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 04:38:00 PM
How I see it - UW-LaCrosse, Wheaton, Birmingham-Southern, Hardin-Simmons, and John's Hopkins or Bethel

This was a crazy day...

I'll go with: UWL, Wheaton, Birmingham Southern, Hardin Simmons, & Randolph Macon (based on SOS)

Quote from: thunderdog on November 13, 2021, 05:15:06 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 04:38:00 PM
How I see it - UW-LaCrosse, Wheaton, Birmingham-Southern, Hardin-Simmons, and John's Hopkins or Bethel

This was a crazy day...

I'll go with: UWL, Wheaton, Birmingham Southern, Hardin Simmons, & Randolph Macon (based on SOS)

I think Susquehanna will get back into Region 2 rankings with their only losses to two one-loss team with one being a conference champ. I think Union drops to the bottom of Region 2 forcing Hobart out due to H2H. That will give Johns Hopkins a RR win and on top of that Stevenson just won 5 straight games to finish at .500 so that helps Hopkins SOS. I think had Catholic won today against Springfield, that would have put them into Region 1 giving Macon an RR win, but that didn't happen. Then looking at common opponents between the two, Hopkins handled Dickinson a little better and I'm sure the committee will be looking at everything.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 04:38:00 PM

Quote from: archgemini24 on November 13, 2021, 04:33:09 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 04:29:00 PM
Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Johnnies just scored to help them breath a bit (edit: and got the W). BW also helped everyone by utterly collapsing against John Carroll.

Unless I misunderstood a lot of the scenarios, the games this week cleaned up things a lot for HSU and Wheaton.

How I see it - UW-LaCrosse, Wheaton, Birmingham-Southern, Hardin-Simmons, and John's Hopkins or Bethel

This was a crazy day...

I was going to post the same thing. I believe Johns Hopkins is one of the 5 best C Pool teams, yet is probably the team left out.

End of Season updated Bracket - Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Birmingham Southern, Johns Hopkins, Hardin-Simmons and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-9; If higher seeds win, only six. If there are few upsets 9.

Brutal late loses by Union and Ithaca destroy the Liberty League's plans for a Pool C....Very disappointing.  >:(

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 05:52:32 PM
End of Season updated Bracket - Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Birmingham Southern, Johns Hopkins, Hardin-Simmons and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-9; If higher seeds win, only six. If there are few upsets 9.

I think I would flip UW-LC and Lake Forest.

Quote from: Baldini on November 13, 2021, 06:37:58 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 05:52:32 PM
End of Season updated Bracket - Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Birmingham Southern, Johns Hopkins, Hardin-Simmons and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-9; If higher seeds win, only six. If there are few upsets 9.

I think I would flip UW-LC and Lake Forest.

Good Catch...I printed it out and was like that made perfect sense.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 04:38:00 PM

Quote from: archgemini24 on November 13, 2021, 04:33:09 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on November 13, 2021, 04:29:00 PM
Bubble teams nervously watching this MIAC ending.

Johnnies just scored to help them breath a bit (edit: and got the W). BW also helped everyone by utterly collapsing against John Carroll.

Unless I misunderstood a lot of the scenarios, the games this week cleaned up things a lot for HSU and Wheaton.

How I see it - UW-LaCrosse, Wheaton, Birmingham-Southern, Hardin-Simmons, and John's Hopkins or Bethel

This was a crazy day...

Same.

Quote from: UfanBill on November 13, 2021, 05:53:08 PM
Brutal late loses by Union and Ithaca destroy the Liberty League's plans for a Pool C....Very disappointing.  >:(

Ditto for BW and the OAC's shot at a pool C. The Yellow Jackets got their hearts ripped out.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on November 13, 2021, 05:52:32 PM
End of Season updated Bracket - Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35913)

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Birmingham Southern, Johns Hopkins, Hardin-Simmons and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-9; If higher seeds win, only six. If there are few upsets 9.

That .494 SOS for JHU is tough to get past IMO.

RMC has solid SOS, but no W over RRO. Lost to a 2 loss Pool A RRO. 
JHU has a rough SOS. Loss to a 1 loss Pool A RRO.
Bethel has a very strong SOS, a W vs RRO, 2 losses to the same unbeaten Pool A RRO.

I'll be interested to see how Wally predicts this, and what the committee ultimately decides.

If Ithaca gets to the table (which is not a given should they be behind Johns Hopkins in the rankings), they've got a .612 SoS (2nd best in the country), and possibly be 2-2 RRO (if Union stays in). Could that be enough to get in before a 1 loss team with mediocre SoS and no RRO wins? Will be interesting to see.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 07:02:37 PM
If Ithaca gets to the table (which is not a given should they be behind Johns Hopkins in the rankings), they've got a .612 SoS (2nd best in the country), and possibly be 2-2 RRO (if Union stays in). Could that be enough to get in before a 1 loss team with mediocre SoS and no RRO wins? Will be interesting to see.

Your call, it's down to the 5th spot and Bethel and Ithaca are on the table, who you picking?

No idea what we'll get, but for the sake of the field, I'd want UW-L, Wheatonb, Hardin-Simmons and Bethel.

Not sure why some folks seem to assume Birmingham is a lock. Lousy SoS, middlin' conference at best. What's their best win?

Quote from: repete on November 13, 2021, 07:24:11 PM
No idea what we'll get, but for the sake of the field, I'd want UW-L, Wheatonb, Hardin-Simmons and Bethel.

Not sure why some folks seem to assume Birmingham is a lock. Lousy SoS, middlin' conference at best. What's their best win?

Wins over RR Huntingdon, solid teams like Berry and Centre. Not a power conference, but conference history is not part of the criteria.

Quote from: repete on November 13, 2021, 07:24:11 PM
No idea what we'll get, but for the sake of the field, I'd want UW-L, Wheatonb, Hardin-Simmons and Bethel.

Not sure why some folks seem to assume Birmingham is a lock. Lousy SoS, middlin' conference at best. What's their best win?

and ranked above hardin simmons last week---not sure anything changed this week to reverse that....

Something that no one has mentioned... Washington & Lee lost today... which releases Randolph-Macon (9-1, .556, 0-1) from being stuck behind them. They might be able to jump up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the Region 3 rankings now.

Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2021, 07:29:14 PM

Quote from: repete on November 13, 2021, 07:24:11 PM
No idea what we'll get, but for the sake of the field, I'd want UW-L, Wheatonb, Hardin-Simmons and Bethel.

Not sure why some folks seem to assume Birmingham is a lock. Lousy SoS, middlin' conference at best. What's their best win?

Wins over RR Huntingdon, solid teams like Berry and Centre. Not a power conference, but conference history is not part of the criteria.

BSC should be 2-1 vs RRO's, 1 point loss to Trinity and wins over Huntingdon and Centre. Centre was in first regional rankings and good chance they move back into the final one with the W&L loss.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 08:01:42 PM
Something that no one has mentioned... Washington & Lee lost today... which releases Randolph-Macon (9-1, .556, 0-1) from being stuck behind them. They might be able to jump up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the Region 3 rankings now.

I was thinking of that too with the huge advantage in SoS but their only RRO is the loss to previously ranked W&L while HSU has the close loss to #1 UMHB so I'm not too sure.

Here's who looks like they'd be at the table (Region 2 has a hard choice to decide, personally I prefer Ithaca, but they could stick with 1 loss Hopkins):
Merchant Marine (8-1, .488, 0-0)
Ithaca (8-2, .613, 2-2) or Johns Hopkins (9-1, .494, 0-1)
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .504, 1-1)
Baldwin Wallace (8-2, .522, 1-2)
Wheaton (9-1, .481, 0-1)
UW-La Crosse (8-1, .573, 1-1)

I'm going La Crosse, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca, Bethel, and Hardin-Simmons. If Region 2 slots Ithaca behind Johns Hopkins, I think Wheaton slips in and R2 gets shut out. Those two loss teams just look so much more attractive than the 1 loss teams with little in the way of RRO and sub .500 SoS to me.
I can fully understand if it ends up being La Crosse, BSC, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton, Johns Hopkins though. I think it comes down to what the regional committees do at the bottom of their rankings. Does R2 slip Susquehanna in to help Hopkins out?

FCG I'd like some of what you are smoking

Question for the group:
When's the last time a 2-loss (d3 losses), entered the playoffs as a pool C, when that team lost their 2nd game in their final game? Anyone know?
I vaguely remember 'momentum' or 'performance in the final 2-3 games' as part of the selection process... or am I smoking something?

I don't see any 2 loss teams making the field as pool C teams. Too many qualified options with only 1 loss.

Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

Does the NCAA pay for the flights in the playoffs, or is that on the school to pay???

Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 13, 2021, 10:27:03 PM
Does the NCAA pay for the flights in the playoffs, or is that on the school to pay???

NCAA does. Which is why we have so much talk about limiting flights and who's within 600 miles.

FCG, you do realize that winning percentage is a primary criteria?  So taking a 2 loss team (let alone 2 of them) would require minimizing the one criteria that's hard to ignore. SOS is flawed due to the proliferation of 10 team conferences (the committees seem to acknowledge that with their rankings). There is only one time I can recall a 2 loss team going in ahead of a 1 loss team (St John Fisher?) and that may have been at the regional level, not the national level. It just doesn't happen.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 10:12:04 PM
Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

I had similar thoughts on my bracket. I had Del Valley and Cortland heading up one bracket. I put the H-S/Trinity winner facing the Redlands/Linfield winner and Huntingdon/B-S facing UMHB/Wash & Lee (because I had Johns Hopkins facing Salisbury.) The Alabama teams will have to fly and someone will have to fly to the West Coast anyway so why not avoid an ASC rematch?

I sent Rose-Hulman to NCC and DePauw to Mt. Union.

Quote from: USee on November 13, 2021, 10:42:25 PM
FCG, you do realize that winning percentage is a primary criteria?  So taking a 2 loss team (let alone 2 of them) would require minimizing the one criteria that's hard to ignore. SOS is flawed due to the proliferation of 10 team conferences (the committees seem to acknowledge that with their rankings). There is only one time I can recall a 2 loss team going in ahead of a 1 loss team (St John Fisher?) and that may have been at the regional level, not the national level. It just doesn't happen.

I do realize that... but it's not the only primary criteria. If that's the only factor supporting a team and everything else is overwhelmingly in favor against, how can you not pick the team with the more impressive resume? I just find it hard to weight win percentage so much that it outweighs everything else combined. At that point win percentage becomes the only criteria and everything else is secondary which is not the case.

Del Valley
Springfield

Endicott
@RPI

Framingham
@Muehlenberg

Anna Maria
@Cortland

——————
UMHB
Washington and Lee

Huntingdon
@B-S

Hardin Simmons
@Trinity

Redlands
@Linfield
———————-
NCC
Rose-Hulman

Albion
@Carnegie Mellon

Johns Hopkins
@Salisbury

DePauw
@Mt. Union
—————
UW-Whitewater
Greenville

Wheaton
@Lake Forest

LaCrosse
@Central

Aurora
@St. John's

It's not the only criteria but since its only happened 1x in the pool era (picking a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team) it seems like its a pretty important one. It's hard to evaluate these teams with limited data. But the football minds of the committee have the flexibility to use the criteria to find the best teams.

Similar to 2019 I could definitely see the FIVE RAC WashU to the bottom of the rankings to give Wheaton an extra RRO. WashU is 7-3, .518, 0-3.

The D3 crew have their projected bracket (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/our-projected-bracket) posted... and even they are choosing a 2 loss pool C team ;)

La Crosse is in, BSC if they have 2 RRO are pretty locked in. That leaves H-S, Wheaton, Bethel, Johns Hopkins, Ithaca, Randolph-Macon for the other 3 spots. Regions 1 and 4 are getting no one in. It's going to come down to who sneaks into the bottom of the final rankings to boost a team's RRO and is there any change in the order at the table (who's ahead in regions 2 and 3).

Compared to their projected rankings... I think Susquehanna should sneak in ahead of Carnegie Mellon in Region 2... same record, nearly identical SoS, but Susquehanna is 0-2 RRO while Carnegie is 0-0. Susquehanna being in boosts Johns Hopkins chances.

Centre or Washington & Lee in region 3? Both 2 loss teams, Centre just slightly better SoS, but W&L has a RRO win. BSC probably gets in anyways, but Centre being ranked locks them in while W&L not being ranked pretty much eliminates any hope for Randolph-Macon.

Less than 24 hours left to wait now 8-)

Isn't Carnegie Mellon the PAC AQ?

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 10:12:04 PM
Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

Is Springfield going to go split squad and play two games?

Quote from: USee on November 13, 2021, 11:14:33 PM
It's not the only criteria but since its only happened 1x in the pool era (picking a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team) it seems like its a pretty important one. It's hard to evaluate these teams with limited data. But the football minds of the committee have the flexibility to use the criteria to find the best teams.

I think it's very unlikely Ithaca gets into the playoffs. Two losses is two losses. But, part of me also thinks, as flawed as SOS is, that there should be some reward for playing a tough team OOC. If all the Pool Cs are 9-1 teams, you might as well not bother with a tough OOC game, because you're basically saying you need to be unbeaten in OOC play.

Hoping to be wrong, though

Quote from: Baldini on November 14, 2021, 08:56:44 AM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 10:12:04 PM
Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

Is Springfield going to go split squad and play two games?

Probably not much difference in final scores.
I think Anna Maria is the team I forgot so stick them in there.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 09:40:16 AM

Quote from: Baldini on November 14, 2021, 08:56:44 AM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2021, 10:12:04 PM
Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

Is Springfield going to go split squad and play two games?

Probably not much difference in final scores.
I think Anna Maria is the team I forgot so stick them in there.

Just some friendly ribbing on a Sunday morning. ;D

I think WashU gets ranked in region 5 in final rankings. That gives Wheaton another RRO and gets them picked as the 2nd or 3rd Pool C.

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
I think WashU gets ranked in region 5 in final rankings. That gives Wheaton another RRO and gets them picked as the 2nd or 3rd Pool C.

I keep thinking of them... but they lost to Chicago and I think they stay behind them.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 01:01:58 PM

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 10:33:32 AM
I think WashU gets ranked in region 5 in final rankings. That gives Wheaton another RRO and gets them picked as the 2nd or 3rd Pool C.

I keep thinking of them... but they lost to Chicago and I think they stay behind them.

The Five knows how the system works. WashU will be ranked. Book it

Link to the show???

Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 14, 2021, 05:25:13 PM
Link to the show???

https://www.d3football.com/videolink/selection-show-2021

First bracket

Lake Forest @ St John's
Redlands @ Linfield
Trinity (TX) @ UMHB
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern

BSC the first Pool C listed... don't think H-S will be picked with Trinity going to UMHB

2nd bracket

Greenville @ UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ DePauw
Bethel @ Central
Aurora @ Wheaton

Bethel the 2nd pool C... and a 2 loss team is in
Wheaton the 3rd pool C named

Top right bracket

Carnegie Mellon @ North Central
UW-La Crosse @ Albion
Springfield @ Cortland
RPI @ Endicott

4th pool C named is UWL... but they're on the road

Bottom right quadrant

Wash & Lee @ Mount Union
Johns Hopkins @ Salisbury
Anna Maria @ Delaware Valley
Framingham St @ Muhlenberg

Final Pool C to be named is... Johns Hopkins. They had to be ahead of Ithaca in R2 and I think last off the board because I think Ithaca would have been in before Bethel.

 ??? Bethel ahead of HSU? Sorry but think the selection committee was smoking some crack or some politics going on.

Did anyone else notice that the host of the show kept being wrong about how many teams each school had made it recently? I'm sure it's news to Endicott that this is their third straight playoff appearance.

Quote from: trickytroy32 on November 14, 2021, 05:47:21 PM
??? Bethel ahead of HSU? Sorry but think the selection committee was smoking some crack or some politics going on.

Must have been the same stuff I've been smoking the past week according to some other posters ;)

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 05:50:42 PM

Quote from: trickytroy32 on November 14, 2021, 05:47:21 PM
??? Bethel ahead of HSU? Sorry but think the selection committee was smoking some crack or some politics going on.

Must have been the same stuff I've been smoking the past week according to some other posters ;)

Am I right in reading this as though SJU got the top overall seed? With a monster SOS and 4-0 vs RRO, that makes sense.

SJU being a 1 seed (maybe top overall), and UMHB a 2 seed, would have been a significant argument in Bethel's favor. Plus a .060 gap in SOS and 1-2 v. RRO as opposed to 0-1.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 05:50:42 PM

Quote from: trickytroy32 on November 14, 2021, 05:47:21 PM
??? Bethel ahead of HSU? Sorry but think the selection committee was smoking some crack or some politics going on.

Must have been the same stuff I've been smoking the past week according to some other posters ;)

Kudos to you FCGrizz. You called 2-loss Bethel even before their 2nd loss.

Any 8-2 team over a 9-1 ASC team is just idiotic. But bethel can make a case losing to St. John twice. But going off the critia hsu should of got picked over John Hopkins. Again Umhb faces probably a 3 seed where all the other 1 and 2s are facing joke teams that shouldn't even be there to start with. If I was in the ASC or west coast I would drop to naia. To much politics favoring east and north teams especially in the playoffs.

He did pick HSU making it before bethel and John Hopkins

The order I think they went in... La Crosse was 1st, then Birmingham-Southern. I think Bethel went 3rd, Wheaton 4th, Johns Hopkins 5th. The only tossup there is Bethel/Wheaton at 3 and 4. Hopkins had to be last or Ithaca would have been in before Bethel, and with Bethel before Hopkins I think they were before Wheaton as well. I'm wondering if Randolph-Macon did end up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the rankings because I would have taken H-S before Wheaton or Hopkins.

WashU was ranked in Region 5 so Wheaton was in before Bethel for sure and was either 2nd or 3rd Pool C. I heard if from a friend, who, heard it from a friend, who.........

Likely RMC got placed in the Three ahead of HSU and JH was blocking Ithaca. That's the only reason I see for HSU to get bounced.

FCG, the only reason I said you were smoking is there was no way 2 two loss teams were going before Wheaton. I didn't think it was preposterous that a 2 loss team made it.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 06:54:11 PM
The order I think they went in... La Crosse was 1st, then Birmingham-Southern. I think Bethel went 3rd, Wheaton 4th, Johns Hopkins 5th. The only tossup there is Bethel/Wheaton at 3 and 4. Hopkins had to be last or Ithaca would have been in before Bethel, and with Bethel before Hopkins I think they were before Wheaton as well. I'm wondering if Randolph-Macon did end up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the rankings because I would have taken H-S before Wheaton or Hopkins.

agreed

Final rankings (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/final-regional-ranking) clears some things up

Susquehanna did slip into the rankings to give Hopkins a RRO win
WashU snuck in as well to give Wheaton a RRO win.
Randolph-Macon blocked Hardin-Simmons from ever reaching the table.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 07:39:10 PM
Final rankings (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/final-regional-ranking) clears some things up

Susquehanna did slip into the rankings to give Hopkins a RRO win
WashU snuck in as well to give Wheaton a RRO win.
Randolph-Macon blocked Hardin-Simmons from ever reaching the table.

I don't follow the south region close enough to answer this for myself.  Why did Birmingham-Southern get ranked ahead of Randolph-Macon and HSU?  If B-S could get ahead of R-M it looks from the stats like HSU could as well.  Did B-S have a RR victory?

Quote from: OzJohnnie on November 14, 2021, 07:50:45 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 07:39:10 PM
Final rankings (https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/final-regional-ranking) clears some things up

Susquehanna did slip into the rankings to give Hopkins a RRO win
WashU snuck in as well to give Wheaton a RRO win.
Randolph-Macon blocked Hardin-Simmons from ever reaching the table.

I don't follow the south region close enough to answer this for myself.  Why did Birmingham-Southern get ranked ahead of Randolph-Macon and HSU?  If B-S could get ahead of R-M it looks from the stats like HSU could as well.  Did B-S have a RR victory?

BS beat huntington--so yes--and was in a virtual tie with Trinity (they went for 2 and the win instead of kicking the PAT for the tie).  So I think the Committee wanted to keep them right there with Trinity.   HSU was behind Randolph Macon because of SOS.

So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

I think that makes sense that maybe Ithaca did get to the table. Ithaca lost Union as a RRO win so they had an identical 1-2 as Bethel. Both with a 1 point loss to a region #1, Bethel with a 6 point loss to region #1 while Ithaca with a 3 point loss to region #4... Ithaca with a .043 SoS edge... personally I still take Ithaca but it's a lot tougher choice than previously thought.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 08:06:06 PM

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

I think that makes sense that maybe Ithaca did get to the table. Ithaca lost Union as a RRO win so they had an identical 1-2 as Bethel. Both with a 1 point loss to a region #1, Bethel with a 6 point loss to region #1 while Ithaca with a 3 point loss to region #4... Ithaca with a .043 SoS edge... personally I still take Ithaca but it's a lot tougher choice than previously thought.

maybe I'm missing it but where is Ithica's RRO win?

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 08:06:06 PM

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

I think that makes sense that maybe Ithaca did get to the table. Ithaca lost Union as a RRO win so they had an identical 1-2 as Bethel. Both with a 1 point loss to a region #1, Bethel with a 6 point loss to region #1 while Ithaca with a 3 point loss to region #4... Ithaca with a .043 SoS edge... personally I still take Ithaca but it's a lot tougher choice than previously thought.

All region #1s or #4s are not equal.  Hobart is not a regionally ranked win.  It's also probable that Ithaca never made it to the board.

Quote from: AO on November 14, 2021, 09:02:28 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 08:06:06 PM

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

I think that makes sense that maybe Ithaca did get to the table. Ithaca lost Union as a RRO win so they had an identical 1-2 as Bethel. Both with a 1 point loss to a region #1, Bethel with a 6 point loss to region #1 while Ithaca with a 3 point loss to region #4... Ithaca with a .043 SoS edge... personally I still take Ithaca but it's a lot tougher choice than previously thought.

All region #1s or #4s are not equal.  Hobart is not a regionally ranked win.  It's also probable that Ithaca never made it to the board.

Based on the final regional rankings, either Ithaca did get to the board or JHU was the last team in.

If Ithaca was 2-2 RRO then I would have said Hopkins had to be last in because no way they would be left out over Bethel, but without the RRO wins then their profile wasn't nearly as good so they could have been at the table before the end.

I think the region 5 committee gamed the system a bit... I just don't see how they slipped WashU in ahead of Chicago. Chicago had the better record and a head to head win over WashU. Almost identical SoS and neither team with a RRO win. They did that solely to boost Wheaton and make sure they got in.

Quote from: USee on November 14, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
So the Five and the Six stacked the bottom of the rankings to help the resumes of their top teams while the Two and the Three went straight win percentage followed by RRO/SOS, blocking a 2 loss team (Ithaca) from being considered. And with Susquehanna sneaking in Bethel was probably the last pool C picked.

I've seen you claim a couple times that region six gamed the system in defense, I suppose, of a potential claim that region five gamed the selections to favour Wheaton.  But I don't think this claim that region six gamed the system, like you believe region five cleverly did, stacks up.  There's not a team in region six who should be ranked above Gustavus or UWRF, unlike Chicago and WashU.

#2 in the SCIAC was Chapman with a 7-3 record, #1 in the UMAC was Greenville (Yeah, you'll have to look them up.  End of argument), and #2 in the NWC was George Fox at 6-3.  There was no team in region six that made any sort of case for ranking above Gustavus (8-2 with a 1-2 RR record) and River Falls (8-2, 0-1 RR).  Region six played it straight.  I find it curious you're so eager to admit that region five did not.

No one has seen me say anyone "gamed" the system. I said there are committees that know how the system works and others that don't. Gustavus mysteriously appearing in the rankings last week after not being in there and jumping UWO was not working the system? I also never said every regional committee works the system the same way. You guys all think some criteria are more important than others. Your favorite criteria may not be the same with every committee. You guys aren't on the committee and neither am I. I don't know what criteria every region values and how they measure it. Did the Three do the system justice by putting RMC ahead of Hardin Simmons by putting Susquehana in at the bottom? I don't see any MIAC fans bemoaning that decision.

Wheaton deserved to be in and they are in. Hardin Simmons deserves to be in and they aren't. And if Johns Hopkins was the last team in (I think it was Bethel) then Ithaca never made it to the table. That's the system.

I think the committees are supposed to work with the criteria to get the best ranking they can get and make sure their best teams have a chance to be in the tournament. That's what every committee did. It worked for some and didn't for others. Happens every year.

It also doesn't matter at the end of the day what the regional committees do as the national committee can make any change to the rankings that they want.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 14, 2021, 09:30:16 PM
If Ithaca was 2-2 RRO then I would have said Hopkins had to be last in because no way they would be left out over Bethel, but without the RRO wins then their profile wasn't nearly as good so they could have been at the table before the end.

I think the region 5 committee gamed the system a bit... I just don't see how they slipped WashU in ahead of Chicago. Chicago had the better record and a head to head win over WashU. Almost identical SoS and neither team with a RRO win. They did that solely to boost Wheaton and make sure they got in.

Strong agree that Hopkins had to be the last team in, but the selection order gets weird for me after UWL and BSC.  If the rest go Wheaton, Bethel, Hopkins, I don't really know why Bethel would not also go before Wheaton.  If Bethel's SOS and RROs are good enough to beat Hopkins, they ought to be good enough to beat Wheaton also.  So maybe the final three are Bethel, Wheaton, Hopkins.  Hard to say. 

WashU being ranked is pretty indefensible.  I have no problem with Wheaton being in the tournament, but ranking WashU and not Chicago stretches the criteria beyond its breaking point.  If they really needed WashU in there, they needed to make room for Monmouth and Chicago first. 

Ultimately, based on the final regional rankings (the one data point that had changes we didn't know until afterwards) I agree with all five of their choices.

Now it's just over 130 hours until the playoffs officially begin. Good luck to all on the road to Canton.

i like the UMHB pod. It will help define the western half of Region 3.

I can't be upset that IC didn't get in.

They had two losses, which most years ends the discussion. They also had a 27-14 lead over Cortland they couldn't hold.

I think the one spot you could maybe quibble with was Hobart dropping out of the RR despite two RR results, including a win over the R1 4. But it's also true that we don't need to rank every LL team. And it's hard to rank Hobart without ranking Union too.

Either way, Ithaca was in the drivers' seat. A win over Cortland puts them in, and they were in control of that game. And as I said, with only 5 at large bids, two losses almost never gets you in. This system isn't perfect, but it almost always lets you in if you take care of what's in front of you. IC just couldn't finish off the Red Dragons (or the Engineers), and it cost them.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 15, 2021, 12:47:04 AM
Ultimately, based on the final regional rankings (the one data point that had changes we didn't know until afterwards) I agree with all five of their choices.

I completely agree. I think there are valid arguments as to where some teams ended up in their regions. But based off the final regional rankings, the right 5 teams were chosen.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2021, 10:35:15 PM
Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

Agree 100%.    And these playoff setups are awful!!     Hardin-Simmons should have been in the playoffs.    It seems that H-S and Linfield both always get the short end of the DIII playoffs.     The Upper Midwest and the East control the playoff selections.

George

Quote from: IC798891 on November 15, 2021, 06:03:33 AM
I can't be upset that IC didn't get in.

They had two losses, which most years ends the discussion. They also had a 27-14 lead over Cortland they couldn't hold.

I think the one spot you could maybe quibble with was Hobart dropping out of the RR despite two RR results, including a win over the R1 4. But it's also true that we don't need to rank every LL team. And it's hard to rank Hobart without ranking Union too.

Either way, Ithaca was in the drivers' seat. A win over Cortland puts them in, and they were in control of that game. And as I said, with only 5 at large bids, two losses almost never gets you in. This system isn't perfect, but it almost always lets you in if you take care of what's in front of you. IC just couldn't finish off the Red Dragons (or the Engineers), and it cost them.

I believe I read somewhere that both the 2nd and the Final Regional Rankings count towards a team's RRO record. If so, then Union and Hobart were counted. IMO...The problem for Ithaca and one way the committee justified moving Johns Hopkins ahead of Ithaca was that Susquehanna showed up as RR on the final list. That gave Hopkins a RRO win. As I conjectured before they may have been looking for a way to even things up to the CC after dissing them in 2019.  ::)     

Quote from: UfanBill on November 15, 2021, 12:12:42 PM

Quote from: IC798891 on November 15, 2021, 06:03:33 AM
I can't be upset that IC didn't get in.

They had two losses, which most years ends the discussion. They also had a 27-14 lead over Cortland they couldn't hold.

I think the one spot you could maybe quibble with was Hobart dropping out of the RR despite two RR results, including a win over the R1 4. But it's also true that we don't need to rank every LL team. And it's hard to rank Hobart without ranking Union too.

Either way, Ithaca was in the drivers' seat. A win over Cortland puts them in, and they were in control of that game. And as I said, with only 5 at large bids, two losses almost never gets you in. This system isn't perfect, but it almost always lets you in if you take care of what's in front of you. IC just couldn't finish off the Red Dragons (or the Engineers), and it cost them.

I believe I read somewhere that both the 2nd and the Final Regional Rankings count towards a team's RRO record. If so, then Union and Hobart were counted. IMO...The problem for Ithaca and one way the committee justified moving Johns Hopkins ahead of Ithaca was that Susquehanna showed up as RR on the final list. That gave Hopkins a RRO win. As I conjectured before they may have been looking for a way to even things up to the CC after dissing them in 2019.  ::)   

There was a whole domino effect there.  Lycoming ended up being ranked in Region 1's final rankings, which gave Susquehanna an RRO win, which made it feasible (even if disagreeable for me) for the River Hawks to be ranked.  Should Lyco have been ranked?  In front of a Widener team that Lyco lost to the week before?  Kind of a similar situation to WashU in The 5.  The difference for me is that I don't believe there was collaboration between RACs 1 and 2 to get Susquehanna ranked, so Lyco showing up there doesn't seem quite as shifty.  WashU's ranking was done transparently in spite of the criteria to build Wheaton's profile.  I'm not sure that's the job the RACs are assigned to do, but that's what it has kind of evolved into.     

Seems like the national committee was fine with what every RAC did including the 5. They have the power to change things and didn't. Not sure why that's not enough.

In the end, the role of the regional committee is to position the teams in THEIR region to succeed in a national playoff and get as many of their teams in the dance as possible. The bottom of the regional rankings, for years, has been a place to bolster rankings and resume of the contenders. That certainly didn't change this year.

So our discussion is between Wheaton, Bethel, Johns Hopkins, UW-L and B-SC.

I'm not sure who I would send home to allow H-SU in.  If these 5 go 5-0 this weekend, then we can say the committees' did a good job.  Criteria or not, Wheaton needs to be in the post season.  UW-L seems like a no brainer as well.  These 2 teams are legit contenders. 

The other teams are good and have the ability to win some game, but...they could have been replaced and no argument from me. 

32 Playoff teams by D3 Massey rankings (overall D3 rankings).

1 - North Central (1)
2 - Mount Union (3)
3 - Mary Hardin-Baylor (5)
4 - UW-Whitewater (6)
5 - St. John's (7)
6 - Wheaton (8)
7 - Johns Hopkins (9)
8 - UW-La Crosse (10)
9 - Muhlenberg (12)
10 - Central (13)
11 - Linfield (15)
12 - Bethel (17)
13 - Trinity (20)
14 - Cortland (22)
15 - Delaware Valley (25)
16 - Birmingham-Southern (32)
17 - Salisbury (34)
18 - Washington & Lee (42)
19 - Redlands (43)
20 - Huntingdon (48)
21 - RPI (49)
22 - Carnegie Mellon (55)
23 - Aurora (64)
24 - DePauw (65)
25 - Albion (67)
26 - Lake Forest (78)
27 - Springfield (89)
28 - Rose-Hulman (93)
29 - Endicott (122)
30 - Framingham State (161)
31 - Greenville (181)
32 - Anna Maria (200)

Highest ranked not to make the playoff was Hardin-Simmons (14). 

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 15, 2021, 04:38:24 PM
So our discussion is between Wheaton, Bethel, Johns Hopkins, UW-L and B-SC.

I'm not sure who I would send home to allow H-SU in.  If these 5 go 5-0 this weekend, then we can say the committees' did a good job.  Criteria or not, Wheaton needs to be in the post season.  UW-L seems like a no brainer as well.  These 2 teams are legit contenders. 

The other teams are good and have the ability to win some game, but...they could have been replaced and no argument from me.

I think it is very cool that we avoided any C vs. C games in the first round.  Maybe a happy accident, but that's one the committee got right (intentional or no). 

In the UMHB bracket, we should get a chance to evaluate TUTX  & BSC versus the ASC.

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 15, 2021, 04:38:24 PM
So our discussion is between Wheaton, Bethel, Johns Hopkins, UW-L and B-SC.

I'm not sure who I would send home to allow H-SU in.  If these 5 go 5-0 this weekend, then we can say the committees' did a good job.  Criteria or not, Wheaton needs to be in the post season.  UW-L seems like a no brainer as well.  These 2 teams are legit contenders. 

The other teams are good and have the ability to win some game, but...they could have been replaced and no argument from me.

I strongly feel like all 5 will win their games, but BSC gets a rematch against a team they already picked apart to begin the season. I will be anxious to see the results Trinity puts up against MHB in the first round and then BSC against MHB in the second round. That will give us HSU fans a gauge of how to examine if we got completely screwed on an even playing field of all three having to travel to Belton.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 15, 2021, 05:40:22 PM
In the UMHB bracket, we should get a chance to evaluate TUTX  & BSC versus the ASC.

That's only if UMHB beats Trinity. 

Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 16, 2021, 03:01:09 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 15, 2021, 05:40:22 PM
In the UMHB bracket, we should get a chance to evaluate TUTX  & BSC versus the ASC.

That's only if UMHB beats Trinity.

I think it's going to be a good game, however I think UMHB wins by 17.

Is their a bracket challenge anywhere this year?

Quote from: Baldini on November 16, 2021, 05:10:02 PM
Is their a bracket challenge anywhere this year?

Go to General Football > Pick-Ems > Bracket Challenge (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=9000.15)

Trying to find the appropriate board on which to place this comment...

Now that we are the round of 8/quarterfinals, we have some very good games. It would not surprise any of us to see any of these teams in the Stagg.
Yes, there would be Cinderella story lines, but I am really looking forward to these games, as are most of you.

How much effect would a simple petition to the Competition Committee have to stagger the games, if only by 1 hour?

If I were Czar, I would start the EST game at 12:00 EST, the North Central game and the UWW game at 12:00 CST, because of the northern latitude, and hoping to keep the game in an optimal time frame with respect to temperature and weather, and then schedule the UMHB game (in Texas) at 1:00 CST.

Would a petition change the current situation?

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 04, 2021, 10:57:17 AM
Trying to find the appropriate board on which to place this comment...

Now that we are the round of 8/quarterfinals, we have some very good games. It would not surprise any of us to see any of these teams in the Stagg.
Yes, there would be Cinderella story lines, but I am really looking forward to these games, as are most of you.

How much effect would a simple petition to the Competition Committee have to stagger the games, if only by 1 hour?

If I were Czar, I would start the EST game at 12:00 EST, the North Central game and the UWW game at 12:00 CST, because of the northern latitude, and hoping to keep the game in an optimal time frame with respect to temperature and weather, and then schedule the UMHB game (in Texas) at 1:00 CST.

Would a petition change the current situation?

I think Pat has discussed this in recent podcasts as well.

Week 3  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons (8-1)
UW-Whitewater (8-2)
Union (NY) (9-1)
Trine (9-1)
Wheaton (8-2)

Bubble Team:

9-1 Susquehanna/Ursinus
9-1 George Fox
9-1 Stevenson
9-1 Rowan
9-1 Chicago
9-1 DePauw
9-1 Heidelberg
9-1 Bridgewater/Shenandoah

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 18, 2022, 08:06:33 PM
Week 3  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket)

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

UMHB fanboy here, but I think there is a very real chance for HSU. It will come down to UMHB's defense. They are coming around, but you have inexperienced sophomores calling those defensive sets. You could be looking at a 2 loss UMHB trying to get an at large bid to play every game on the road.

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 19, 2022, 05:54:01 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 18, 2022, 08:06:33 PM
Week 3  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (https://officepoolstop.com/Players-Only/MyBracket)

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

UMHB fanboy here, but I think there is a very real chance for HSU. It will come down to UMHB's defense. They are coming around, but you have inexperienced sophomores calling those defensive sets. You could be looking at a 2 loss UMHB trying to get an at large bid to play every game on the road.

I still think they both get in, they will just switch 1st round opponents.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 18, 2022, 08:06:33 PM
Week 3  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

If Wheaton is on this, which team are they replacing from the 5 listed above?

Quote from: Cowboy2 on September 20, 2022, 02:34:25 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 18, 2022, 08:06:33 PM
Week 3  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

If Wheaton is on this, which team are they replacing from the 5 listed above?

Good catch (updated), it will be a tough one, but I think based on last year's precedent, if Wheaton plays NCC close, two losses to two Top 8/10 teams will look better than OAC's runner-up, considering the OAC did not perform as well this year compared to the MIAA. It will come down to how Region 4 Committee rank teams this year. Will there be 3 OAC or 2 OAC teams. Will Wheaton be higher than the MIAA & OAC Runner-ups at potential 1 loss. Does Region 2 put the CC runner-up above the LL runner-up. Will Region 3 place Hardin-Simmons as it's first runner-up
or UMHB if they lose. With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

Other Notable Potential Bubble Teams:

9-1 Susquehanna/Ursinus
9-1 George Fox
9-1 Stevenson
9-1 Rowan
9-1 Chicago
9-1 DePauw
9-1 Heidelberg
9-1 Bridgewater/Shenandoah

I'll do some WAY TOO EARLY Regional Projections this week or in the near future.

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons. 

The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

Quote from: IC798891 on September 22, 2022, 10:33:24 AM
The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 22, 2022, 03:09:27 PM

Quote from: IC798891 on September 22, 2022, 10:33:24 AM
The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2

I am pulling up the rankings thru games of 11/14/2021.

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Maybe? Defiance is going to be a big drain on UMU's SOS, and I'm not sure the OAC is going to occupy as much space in the Region 4 rankings this year.  Mount Union is likely going to have a resume that could easily be trumped by a number of other undefeated teams (Trinity and St. John's stand out immediately- there may be others).

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 22, 2022, 04:47:09 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Maybe? Defiance is going to be a big drain on UMU's SOS, and I'm not sure the OAC is going to occupy as much space in the Region 4 rankings this year.  Mount Union is likely going to have a resume that could easily be trumped by a number of other undefeated teams (Trinity and St. John's stand out immediately- there may be others).

you ain't lying.  Imagine trying to convince yourself that Defiance can win a game or two this season to help SOS.  Hopefully the MIAA beats up on each other, got to get Berg and JCU in the regional rankings at some point

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 22, 2022, 03:09:27 PM

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2

The R2 team was 7-2, not 7-3.

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 23, 2022, 08:02:51 PM

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)

Quote from: MonroviaCat on September 24, 2022, 06:10:21 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 23, 2022, 08:02:51 PM

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)

As a fan of division III football, I'm still looking forward to the long overdue matchup between Linfield and Mount Union. The way this season is matching up. We may see some weird traveling occuring.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (1-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State 5. Salve Regina (1-1) 6. Springfield (1-0) 7. Merchant Marine 8. MIT (0-2)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (1-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. Belhaven (0-1)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (0-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Denison (1-0) 5. Trine (1-1) 6. DePauw (0-1) 7.Hope (1-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Benedictine (1-0) 4. Lake Forest (1-0) 5. Wheaton (1-2) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (0-2) 8. Loras (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR: 1. UW-L (2-0) 2. Linfield (2-0) 3. Bethel (2-0) 4. St. John's (1-2) 5. UW-W (1-2) 6. George Fox (1-1) 7. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 25, 2022, 01:50:48 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (1-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State 5. Salve Regina (1-1) 6. Springfield (1-0) 7. Merchant Marine 8. MIT (0-2)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (1-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. Belhaven (0-1)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (0-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Denison (1-0) 5. Trine (1-1) 6. DePauw (0-1) 7.Hope (1-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Benedictine (1-0) 4. Lake Forest (1-0) 5. Wheaton (1-2) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (0-2) 8. Loras (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR: 1. UW-L (2-0) 2. Linfield (2-0) 3. Bethel (2-0) 4. St. John's (1-2) 5. UW-W (1-2) 6. George Fox (1-1) 7. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

I just don't think Utica gets by Brockport. But maybe this is finally their year

Quote from: MonroviaCat on September 24, 2022, 06:10:21 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 23, 2022, 08:02:51 PM

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)

Similar sentiments, myself.

Here is a general question.

DePauw with 22 votes is the lowest total ever for a ranked team.

I count all but 138 votes given to the Top 25 teams. Is that the highest cumulative vote total given to the Top 25 teams, ever?

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 02, 2022, 03:57:57 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

I updated my original for this...

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 02, 2022, 03:57:57 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

Well, in the WIAC-ky, Oshkosh and River Falls are still undefeated.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 04:55:25 PM

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 02, 2022, 03:57:57 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

Well, in the WIAC-ky, Oshkosh and River Falls are still undefeated.

The WIAC is going to be very interesting, we can end up with 3 teams with at least two losses and all 3 having the possibility of making the playoffs. I do think the UW-Platteville results will play a role (directly, indirectly, subliminally ) in the committee decision when evaluating common opponents, especially with Hardin-Simmons.

I also think this may lead to some teams having much more challenging 1st and 2nd round games (just projecting) than usual. 

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 04:55:25 PM

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 02, 2022, 03:57:57 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

Well, in the WIAC-ky, Oshkosh and River Falls are still undefeated.

As is Howard Payne in the ASC, but I don't see the CRU bolded.   ;)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 25, 2022, 07:14:20 PM

Quote from: MonroviaCat on September 24, 2022, 06:10:21 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 23, 2022, 08:02:51 PM

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 AM
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)

Similar sentiments, myself.

Here is a general question.

DePauw with 22 votes is the lowest total ever for a ranked team.

I count all but 138 votes given to the Top 25 teams. Is that the highest cumulative vote total given to the Top 25 teams, ever?

This week, all but 101 votes were given to the Top 25 teams. Only 38 teams received a vote.

The fewest teams to receive a vote occurred in 2010, 35 teams in week 9.

https://www.d3football.com/top25/previous

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 05:02:21 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 04:55:25 PM

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 02, 2022, 03:57:57 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 01:17:49 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 12:17:24 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 02, 2022, 12:27:21 AM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (1-0) 3. Stevenson (1-1) 4. Plymouth State (0-0) 5. Springfield (1-0) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Lebanon Valley (0-1) 8. Salve Regina (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 2. Cortland State (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-0) 5. Susquehanna (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Utica (0-1) 8. Ursinus (0-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. DePauw (1-0) 4. MSJ (1-0) 5. Denison (0-1) 6. Alma (0-1)  7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (2-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6. WASH-U (0-2) 7. Monmouth (1-2) 8. Chicago (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1)  6. UW-Oshkosh (0-2) 7. George Fox (1-1) 8. Chapman (0-2)

Week 4  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Isn't it a mess!?!?!

Conference leaders, arbitrarily assigned as needed for analysis sake, are italicized. (Corrections are appreciated.)

Are these the teams at the table for Pool C?

Yes, the italicized are conference leaders. Bold teams are Pool C projections. I also updated for WIAC leader as well.

Why in the world would UW-W be a Pool C projection?

Well, in the WIAC-ky, Oshkosh and River Falls are still undefeated.

The WIAC is going to be very interesting, we can end up with 3 teams with at least two losses and all 3 having the possibility of making the playoffs. I do think the UW-Platteville results will play a role (directly, indirectly, subliminally ) in the committee decision when evaluating common opponents, especially with Hardin-Simmons.

I also think this may lead to some teams having much more challenging 1st and 2nd round games (just projecting) than usual.

Yeah, the UW-Platteville story will be fun to watch. They may have played the hardest schedule in the country through four games (a D2 team and 3 highly ranked D3 teams).

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Stevenson (1-1) 5. Springfield (1-1) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Plymouth State (0-1) 8. Lebanon Valley (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1) 8. Union (1-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Ohio Wesleyan (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1)  6. DePauw (0-1) 7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (1-0) 4. Ripon (1-1) 5. Wheaton (1-2)  6. Aurora (1-0) 7. WASH-U (0-2)  8. St. Norbert (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (2-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. George Fox (0-1) 7. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 8. UW-River Falls (0-3)
Week 6  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 11:45:19 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 25, 2022, 07:14:20 PM

Similar sentiments, myself.

Here is a general question.

DePauw with 22 votes is the lowest total ever for a ranked team.

I count all but 138 votes given to the Top 25 teams. Is that the highest cumulative vote total given to the Top 25 teams, ever?

This week, all but 101 votes were given to the Top 25 teams. Only 38 teams received a vote.

---

This week, 38 teams and all but 99 votes go to the Top 25.

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 09, 2022, 04:30:17 PM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Stevenson (1-1) 5. Springfield (1-1) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Plymouth State (0-1) 8. Lebanon Valley (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1) 8. Union (1-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Ohio Wesleyan (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1)  6. DePauw (0-1) 7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (1-0) 4. Ripon (1-1) 5. Wheaton (1-2)  6. Aurora (1-0) 7. WASH-U (0-2)  8. St. Norbert (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (2-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. George Fox (0-1) 7. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 8. UW-River Falls (0-3)
Week 6  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Your bottom 4-team bracket of UMHB vs St. Johns and Trinity vs. Hardin-Simmons could be a quarterfinal from a team quality standpoint.

Quote from: TheChucker on October 10, 2022, 03:08:18 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 09, 2022, 04:30:17 PM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Stevenson (1-1) 5. Springfield (1-1) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Plymouth State (0-1) 8. Lebanon Valley (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1) 8. Union (1-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Ohio Wesleyan (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1)  6. DePauw (0-1) 7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (1-0) 4. Ripon (1-1) 5. Wheaton (1-2)  6. Aurora (1-0) 7. WASH-U (0-2)  8. St. Norbert (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (2-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. George Fox (0-1) 7. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 8. UW-River Falls (0-3)
Week 6  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Your bottom 4-team bracket of UMHB vs St. Johns and Trinity vs. Hardin-Simmons could be a quarterfinal from a team quality standpoint.

Yeah, welcome to the geographical proximity of every west of the Indiana-Illinois border.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 10, 2022, 03:18:39 PM

Quote from: TheChucker on October 10, 2022, 03:08:18 PM

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 09, 2022, 04:30:17 PM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Stevenson (1-1) 5. Springfield (1-1) 6. Merchant Marine (0-1) 7. Plymouth State (0-1) 8. Lebanon Valley (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (2-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (1-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1) 8. Union (1-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (1-0) 4. Ohio Wesleyan (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1)  6. DePauw (0-1) 7. John Carroll (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Lake Forest (1-0) 4. Ripon (1-1) 5. Wheaton (1-2)  6. Aurora (1-0) 7. WASH-U (0-2)  8. St. Norbert (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (2-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. George Fox (0-1) 7. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 8. UW-River Falls (0-3)
Week 6  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Your bottom 4-team bracket of UMHB vs St. Johns and Trinity vs. Hardin-Simmons could be a quarterfinal from a team quality standpoint.

Yeah, welcome to the geographical proximity of every west of the Indiana-Illinois border.

Although these things are openly discussed and this is just my honest opinion is that I think the committee would more than likely switched the Pomona-Pitzer with St. John's game to create an "higher percentage" that the 2nd round game is a non flight. Not saying these discussions actually happen.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (0-1) 5. Stevenson (1-1) 6. Springfield (1-1) 7. Merchant Marine (0-1) 8. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (1-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (1-1) 6. Grove City (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1) 8. Union (1-2)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. Alma (1-1) 5. John Carroll (0-1) 6. Wabash (0-1) 7. Trine (0-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Ripon (2-0) 3. Wartburg (0-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (1-0) 6.  Lake Forest (0-1) 7. WASH-U (0-2)  8. St. Norbert (0-2)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (0-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (1-0) 7. George Fox (0-1)  8. C-M-S (0-1)
Week 7  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2022, 05:47:20 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 11:45:19 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 25, 2022, 07:14:20 PM

Similar sentiments, myself.

Here is a general question.

DePauw with 22 votes is the lowest total ever for a ranked team.

I count all but 138 votes given to the Top 25 teams. Is that the highest cumulative vote total given to the Top 25 teams, ever?

This week, all but 101 votes were given to the Top 25 teams. Only 38 teams received a vote.

---

This week, 38 teams and all but 99 votes go to the Top 25.

For the Top 25 of October 16, 2022, forty-three (43) teams receive votes with all but 110 votes going to the Top 25.

Two notable changes, per the D3 championships committee report (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/SEP2022D3CC_September1213Report.pdf):

1. No region will have more than seven teams ranked.

2. The flight threshold is back at 500 miles.

Not sure how updated this is, but I just came across this map of the D3 football teams landscape. Never truly appreciated on how much of an island Texas and the western states are in D3:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/NCAA_Division_3_football_map.gif

Quote from: Inkblot on October 17, 2022, 02:13:38 PM
Two notable changes, per the D3 championships committee report (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/SEP2022D3CC_September1213Report.pdf):

1. No region will have more than seven teams ranked.

2. The flight threshold is back at 500 miles.

Welcome to Mount and the #1 "East" seed hosting quadrants on the same side of the bracket

Quote from: tigerguy on October 17, 2022, 03:02:43 PM
Not sure how updated this is, but I just came across this map of the D3 football teams landscape. Never truly appreciated on how much of an island Texas and the western states are in D3:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/NCAA_Division_3_football_map.gif

That looks like it's been several years. No Nebraska Wesleyan or Finlandia, Earlham and Thomas More still listed, etc.
We have our own map that's current to this season.  http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8975.msg2048428#msg2048428
Here's the MAP (https://drive.google.com/open?id=1cpNOSe5JC7XFuLJnD7fxPyUDqVuZM785&usp=sharing)

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 17, 2022, 03:30:52 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on October 17, 2022, 02:13:38 PM
Two notable changes, per the D3 championships committee report (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/SEP2022D3CC_September1213Report.pdf):

1. No region will have more than seven teams ranked.

2. The flight threshold is back at 500 miles.

Welcome to Mount and the #1 "East" seed hosting quadrants on the same side of the bracket

Yup, you are right. There really isn't a difference between 500 and 600 miles for football. What increasing from 500 to 600 was to allow for more equitable matchups within the centralized areas in R1, R2, and connect more R4 teams to R5 and R6 teams.

I updated the projected rankings based upon 7 team limit per region. Also, updated the bracket for the reduction of the 600 miles limit to 500 miles. Bracket looks like the old boring brackets. But it is what is.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (0-0) 4. Kings (0-1) 5. Stevenson (0-2) 6. Springfield (1-0) 7. Merchant Marine (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (1-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (0-1) 6. Grove City (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. Alma (1-1) 5. John Carroll (0-1) 6. Wabash (0-1) 7. Trine (0-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Ripon (1-0) 3. Wartburg (0-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Lake Forest (0-1) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (0-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. George Fox (0-1) 
Week 7  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 17, 2022, 08:24:35 PM
I updated the projected rankings based upon 7 team limit per region. Also, updated the bracket for the reduction of the 600 miles limit to 500 miles. Bracket looks like the old boring brackets. But it is what is.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (0-0) 4. Kings (0-1) 5. Stevenson (0-2) 6. Springfield (1-0) 7. Merchant Marine (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (1-0) 4. Ithaca (1-1) 5. Utica (0-1) 6. Grove City (0-1) 7. Susquehanna (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. Alma (1-1) 5. John Carroll (0-1) 6. Wabash (0-1) 7. Trine (0-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Ripon (1-0) 3. Wartburg (0-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Lake Forest (0-1) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (2-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (0-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. George Fox (0-1) 
Week 7  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Ithaca should be 0-1 in this

Here's the current Pool C eliminator through week 8. I think I've caught all the scenarios of teams who must lose again to be pool C.
Teams with gold border are in/tied for first in their conference.
Teams with an asterisk have a non-D3 loss that's not being factored into their loss total.

(https://i.imgur.com/Mhd9FRM.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/cWSDCKu.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/0EztXOB.png)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2022, 04:50:57 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2022, 05:47:20 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2022, 11:45:19 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 25, 2022, 07:14:20 PM

Similar sentiments, myself.

Here is a general question.

DePauw with 22 votes is the lowest total ever for a ranked team.

I count all but 138 votes given to the Top 25 teams. Is that the highest cumulative vote total given to the Top 25 teams, ever?

For the week of October 2, 2022, all but 101 votes were given to the Top 25 teams. Only 38 teams received a vote. "RV#26" WashUStL received 22 votes

---

For the week of October 9, 2022, 38 teams and all but 99 votes go to the Top 25. "RV#26" Lake Forest received 27 votes

For the Top 25 of October 16, 2022, forty-three (43) teams receive votes with all but 110 votes going to the Top 25. "RV#26" Utica received 43 votes.

For the Top 25 of October 23, 2022, forty-one (41) teams received votes with all but 105 votes going to the Top 25. "RV#26" WashUStL received 20 votes.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (0-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Morrisville (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (1-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Denison (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Monmouth (0-2) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-1) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-2) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. UW-Platteville (2-2) 

Week 8  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 23, 2022, 10:38:19 PM
Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (0-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Morrisville (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (1-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Denison (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Monmouth (0-2) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-1) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-2) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. UW-Platteville (2-2) 

Week 8  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

If you have UW-P ranked, Hardin-Simmons is now [1-1] v. RROs.

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Susquehanna (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Johns Hopkins (0-1) 6. Utica (0-1) 7. Salisbury (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1) 4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (0-0) 5. Alma (1-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Trine (0-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (0-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Lake Forest (0-1) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (0-1) 6. C-M-S (0-0) 7. George Fox (0-1) 

Week 9  WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology (http://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411)

My 1st four Pool C bids, in no particular order, are JHU, Wheaton, SJU and UW-L.

HSU's SOS (which is #71 at .530 with a 6-1 record) will take a hit versus

-- 1-win Austin College (who also plays HPU in the last week).
-- 2-win Texas Lutheran (who plays 3-win Southwestern this week.)

HSU only has 9 D-3 games this season. The UW-P loss today took away the signature win.

How much love will King's get from the Selection Committee? Last week, their SOS is #75 at .528 and a 7-1 record. They have a quality win over Stevenson.

King's will play 2-win Misericordia and then 6-win Wilkes.
King's is likely to have a better record against regionally ranked teams, a comparable/slightly better SOS in 2 weeks, and more wins against D-3 teams.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2022, 09:06:26 PM
My 1st four Pool C bids, in no particular order, are JHU, Wheaton, SJU and UW-L.

HSU's SOS (which is #71 at .530 with a 6-1 record) will take a hit versus

-- 1-win Austin College (who also plays HPU in the last week).
-- 2-win Texas Lutheran (who plays 3-win Southwestern this week.)

HSU only has 9 D-3 games this season. The UW-P loss today took away the signature win.

How much love will King's get from the Selection Committee? Last week, their SOS is #75 at .528 and a 7-1 record. They have a quality win over Stevenson.

King's will play 2-win Misericordia and then 6-win Wilkes.
King's is likely to have a better record against regionally ranked teams, a comparable/slightly better SOS in 2 weeks, and more wins against D-3 teams.

It's a question that's going to be had over the next few weeks into selection Sunday. Hardin-Simmons game against UMHB wasn't as close as we all thought it was and with UW-P having 3 losses to it's worst teams, at this moment, I don't expect them to be regionally ranked. Hardin-Simmons need UW-P to win out, which would IMHO put UW-L in a more precarious position on the board. Also, probably want Redlands to win out, getting C-M-S off the board and George Fox taking another loss, this will allow UW-P to possibly stay on board.

Region 6 is really in shambles in regards to where to rank teams with the WIAC and MIAC teams not having a team that's undefeated, SCIAC best team possibly having one-loss in that of C-M-S or a 5-loss team in that of Redlands. The UMAC best team will have 3 to 4 losses. NWC will probably have Linfield vying for a #1 seed with Trinity (TX) in the travel bracket. The most unfortunate thing is if Hardin-Simmons doesn't make the tournament, UMHB may head to San Antonio as mentioned by Wally on https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/index, which would be a travesty as two top 5 teams playing in the first round. Hopefully the committee financially can make an exception (probably at the cost of other regions matchups), which is highly unlikely.

If Hardin-Simmons is not selected and Kings or Utica is selected. Someone will have to fly into Huntingdon; a team like MSJ is less than 600 miles. That would move things around, probably creating a tougher matchup for NCC in the 2nd round and possibly sending two R2/R1 teams out to Linfield 2nd round (similar to 2013 and 2015). That's a rabbit hole for another day.

There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2022, 09:54:54 PM
There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

In 2013, it was Hampden-Sydney/Maryville and 2015 it was Cortland/Salisbury. Both those years, those "7th & 8th" teams were multiple loss conference champs. Looking at R1/R2/R3, you can possibly look to the NJAC Champ and possibly the Cortaga Loser with the Cortaga loser hosting the NJAC Champ going ot Linfield in the 2nd round.

Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB. 

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2022, 10:31:11 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2022, 09:54:54 PM
There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

In 2013, it was Hampden-Sydney/Maryville and 2015 it was Cortland/Salisbury. Both those years, those "7th & 8th" teams were multiple loss conference champs. Looking at R1/R2/R3, you can possibly look to the NJAC Champ and possibly the Cortaga Loser with the Cortaga loser hosting the NJAC Champ going ot Linfield in the 2nd round.

+1.
I do like those matchups pitting teams across the Appalachians.

(https://i.imgur.com/Z4sLf0A.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/3058nbj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7sNxt9d.png)

Here are Pool A locking scenarios in week 10 (I assume head to head is the top tiebreaker for everyone)

Region 1
CCC: Endicott win vs Salve Regina
ECFC: Gallaudet win at Alfred St
MAC: Delaware Valley win vs FDU-Florham
MASCAC: Mass-Dartmouth on bye week if Plymouth St loses at Mass Maritime
NEWMAC: No lock in week 10. Springfield-Catholic winner week 11

Region 2
CC: Susquehanna win at Muhlenberg
E8: Cortland already locked
LL: Ithaca win at Union
NJAC: No lock in week 10. Chris Newport-Salisbury winner week 11
PAC: Carnegie Mellon on bye week if CWRU loses at Westminster (PA)

Region 3
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win at Howard Payne
ODAC Randolph-Macon win vs Ferrum AND Hampden-Sydney loss at Shenandoah
SAA: Trinity (TX) win at Millsaps
USAC: Huntingdon win at NC Wesleyan

Region 4
HCAC: No lock in week 10.
MIAA: No lock in week 10. Albion-Alma winner week 11
NCAC: No lock in week 10.
OAC: (UMU and JCU each have a scenario to lock) John Carroll win at Mount Union // Mount Union win vs John Carroll AND Baldwin Wallace loss at Heidelberg

Region 5
ARC: Wartburg win vs Simpson AND Coe loss at Nebraska Wesleyan
CCIW: North Central (IL) win at Illinois Wesleyan
MWC: Ripon win at Monmouth
NACC: Aurora win vs Lakeland AND Concordia (WI) loss vs Wisconsin Lutheran

Region 6
MIAC: No lock in week 10. Bethel locked in MIAC title game. St John's in title game with win vs Carleton
NWC: Linfield win vs Willamette
SCIAC: CMS win vs Redlands AND Pomona-Pitzer loss vs Whittier
UMAC: Northwestern win at Crown
WIAC: UW-Whitewater win at UW-Stout AND UW-La Crosse loss vs UW-River Falls AND UW-Platteville loss vs UW-Eau Claire

Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on October 29, 2022, 09:37:16 PM

Region 6 is really in shambles in regards to where to rank teams with the WIAC and MIAC teams not having a team that's undefeated, SCIAC best team possibly having one-loss in that of C-M-S or a 5-loss team in that of Redlands. The UMAC best team will have 3 to 4 losses. NWC will probably have Linfield vying for a #1 seed with Trinity (TX) in the travel bracket. The most unfortunate thing is if Hardin-Simmons doesn't make the tournament, UMHB may head to San Antonio as mentioned by Wally on https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/index, which would be a travesty as two top 5 teams playing in the first round. Hopefully the committee financially can make an exception (probably at the cost of other regions matchups), which is highly unlikely.

I know D3.com ranking has no bearing on playoffs, but I was curious about the highest first round matchups going back to when the poll began in 2003. The following first round matchups occurred between teams ranked #1-12 in the Week 11 D3 poll for the particular year:

2003: Wartburg (4) vs. Bethel (9)
2004: Trinity (7) vs. UMHB (8)
2005: Linfield (1) vs. Occidental (6); UMHB (4) vs. Trinity (8)
2006: UMHB (5) vs. Hardin Simmons (6); Whitworth (8) vs. Occidental (10);
          Central (9) vs. St. Johns (12)
2007: UMHB (4) vs. Trinity (11)
2008: UMHB (5) vs. Hardin Simmons (8)
2009: Monmouth (8) vs. St. Thomas (10); Central (6) vs. UMHB (7)
2010: Ohio Northen (7) vs. Wittenburg (9)
2011: Linfield (5) vs. Cal Lutheran (8)
2016: Linfield (8) vs. Hardin Simmons (11); St. Johns (9) vs. UW Plattville (12)
2017: St. Johns (6) vs. North Central (8); Hardin Simmons (5) vs. Linfield (8)
2018: (UMHB (2) vs. Hardin Simmons (7)

2005 and 2006 were absolutely egregious first round matchups for top 12 teams, sheesh. What is clear is that the common scenario where this issue manifests itself is when there are 3-4 power teams in Texas/the west, although it happens for other regions occasionally. Trinity reemerging as a football power certainly spells bad news for first round playoff matchups for the next few years, especially if Linfield/Hardin Simmons also stay dominant. 

Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

Quote from: BSCpanthers on October 29, 2022, 10:41:13 PM
Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man. 

Quote from: HSUCowboy2015 on October 31, 2022, 09:23:19 AM

Quote from: BSCpanthers on October 29, 2022, 10:41:13 PM
Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man.

So your argument is there are faults in your argument??? 

BSC lost by 3, in the final seconds at Trinity, Hardin Simmons lost by 5 scores at home to UMHB.  You are telling me you should get credit for keeping it close with UMHB for most of the first half.......that's a weak argument and you know it. 

Quote from: BSCpanthers on October 31, 2022, 10:18:41 AM

Quote from: HSUCowboy2015 on October 31, 2022, 09:23:19 AM

Quote from: BSCpanthers on October 29, 2022, 10:41:13 PM
Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man.

So your argument is there are faults in your argument??? 

BSC lost by 3, in the final seconds at Trinity, Hardin Simmons lost by 5 scores at home to UMHB.  You are telling me you should get credit for keeping it close with UMHB for most of the first half.......that's a weak argument and you know it.

Better loses are also a weak argument that HSU has had to use in the past as well. At this point neither HSU or BSC can point to a big victory, BSC will have a 14 point win over most likely 7-3 Berry and HSU will have a 9 point win over most likely 7-3 HPU. They do have a common opponent that HSU beat by 32 and BSC beat by 17 but BSC will probably have 2 RRO loses and HSU will probably only have 1.

All that to say both will have similar amounts of hope come Selection Sunday.

Would love to see a mini wildcard round bracket to settle all..
R3 Pool C: HSU/BSC
Vs
R6 Pool C: STJ/Bethel loser vs WIAC #2

Winner gets shipped to R4 for round 1  :D

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part. 

Quote from: Cowboy2 on October 31, 2022, 11:10:25 AM
Would love to see a mini wildcard round bracket to settle all..
R3 Pool C: HSU/BSC
Vs
R6 Pool C: STJ/Bethel loser vs WIAC #2

Winner gets shipped to R4 for round 1  :D

I think both BSC and HSU would prefer that has a tenth game over Rhodes and Texas Lutheran.  That would be an awesome game. 

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 11:12:54 AM

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2022, 09:06:26 PM
My 1st four Pool C bids, in no particular order, are JHU, Wheaton, SJU and UW-L.

HSU's SOS (which is #71 at .530 with a 6-1 record) will take a hit versus

-- 1-win Austin College (who also plays HPU in the last week).
-- 2-win Texas Lutheran (who plays 3-win Southwestern this week.)

HSU only has 9 D-3 games this season. The UW-P loss today took away the signature win.

How much love will King's get from the Selection Committee? Last week, their SOS is #75 at .528 and a 7-1 record. They have a quality win over Stevenson.

King's will play 2-win Misericordia and then 6-win Wilkes.
King's is likely to have a better record against regionally ranked teams, a comparable/slightly better SOS in 2 weeks, and more wins against D-3 teams.

...and I just made the case for the NCAA to leave HSU at home and send UMHB to Trinity for a 1st round game.

I will update/re-assess this prediction Saturday night, November 14.

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 12:13:54 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 11:12:54 AM

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Strong, strong disagree.  Access to the tournament is based on merit.  You have to win to qualify for the tournament.  If you want a tournament where the teams are perfectly selected, seeded, and paired on a 1-32 basis, you're ALWAYS going to be disappointed because they'll never ever be able to do that accurately. 

Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?   

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 12:34:06 PM

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 12:13:54 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 11:12:54 AM

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Strong, strong disagree.  Access to the tournament is based on merit.  You have to win to qualify for the tournament.  If you want a tournament where the teams are perfectly selected, seeded, and paired on a 1-32 basis, you're ALWAYS going to be disappointed because they'll never ever be able to do that accurately.

I never mentioned merit for access to the playoffs. I was talking matchups all based off money and location. Win lose or draw is really not the matter I was addressing here because I know you have to win them all to be champions. I just know as a Crusader fan if we beat HPU this week then our playoff journey will be in some order either Trinity, Huntingdon, St John's, HSU, Linfield, WW, Mt U. All really fine schools and programs that can beat us on any giving day. . Would be great to play some teams we have never faced or rarely faced before facing the Usual suspects in the Stagg Bowl if we are so lucky to make it that far. It's great to here about some of these programs you guys talk about but we never get to see or play them.

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 01:45:03 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 12:34:06 PM

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 12:13:54 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 11:12:54 AM

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Strong, strong disagree.  Access to the tournament is based on merit.  You have to win to qualify for the tournament.  If you want a tournament where the teams are perfectly selected, seeded, and paired on a 1-32 basis, you're ALWAYS going to be disappointed because they'll never ever be able to do that accurately.

I never mentioned merit for access to the playoffs. I was talking matchups all based off money and location. Win lose or draw is really not the matter I was addressing here because I know you have to win them all to be champions. I just know as a Crusader fan if we beat HPU this week then our playoff journey will be in some order either Trinity, Huntingdon, St John's, HSU, Linfield, WW, Mt U. All really fine schools and programs that can beat us on any giving day. . Would be great to play some teams we have never faced or rarely faced before facing the Usual suspects in the Stagg Bowl if we are so lucky to make it that far. It's great to here about some of these programs you guys talk about but we never get to see or play them.

I'm going to disagree with you here. I like not having cupcake wins in the playoffs. I see enough blow outs regular season. I look forward to good football that makes me nervous. I would rather it all be in Crusader Stadium, but i want the good games

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 12:58:58 PM
I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria. 

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 01:45:03 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 12:34:06 PM

Quote from: SW1 on October 31, 2022, 12:13:54 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 11:12:54 AM

Quote from: SW1 on October 30, 2022, 03:13:03 PM
Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Strong, strong disagree.  Access to the tournament is based on merit.  You have to win to qualify for the tournament.  If you want a tournament where the teams are perfectly selected, seeded, and paired on a 1-32 basis, you're ALWAYS going to be disappointed because they'll never ever be able to do that accurately.

I never mentioned merit for access to the playoffs. I was talking matchups all based off money and location. Win lose or draw is really not the matter I was addressing here because I know you have to win them all to be champions. I just know as a Crusader fan if we beat HPU this week then our playoff journey will be in some order either Trinity, Huntingdon, St John's, HSU, Linfield, WW, Mt U. All really fine schools and programs that can beat us on any giving day. . Would be great to play some teams we have never faced or rarely faced before facing the Usual suspects in the Stagg Bowl if we are so lucky to make it that far. It's great to here about some of these programs you guys talk about but we never get to see or play them.

Here we very much agree.  UMHB-Muhlenberg was a good matchup, even if the game didn't end up delivering.  I would love to see more exposure to Regions 2, 4, and 5 for teams from Texas.  In the regular season, you've got to find partners willing to pay to travel, which isn't a necessary expense for most teams in those regions and we know the NCAA isn't paying for those games until the 3rd round or so of the tournament.  It's an unfortunate byproduct of budgets that we don't get more cross pollination across the division.   

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:23:26 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 12:58:58 PM
I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 02:49:23 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:23:26 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 12:58:58 PM
I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no. 

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:51:24 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 02:49:23 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:23:26 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 12:58:58 PM
I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 03:05:08 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:51:24 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 02:49:23 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2022, 02:23:26 PM

Quote from: Bmo on October 31, 2022, 12:58:58 PM
I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

As a UMHB fan that can fully appreciate your thoughts Bmo, I will give the NCAA credit that once the bracket is released with the possible exception of last years North Central/Mount Union situation, they just play/fly out the bracket.

Back in 2016, when UMHB may or may not have won the Stagg Bowl (haha) the island bracket was made up so that Linfield (5 seed) traveled to HSU (3 seed) in the first round and UMHB (1 seed) played Redlands. Can't remember if the no conference opponents rematches in first round rule was in affect but either way the cheapest outcome would have been HSU taking care of business and beating Linfield to set up a much cheaper 2nd but alas HSU couldn't and Linfield was flown to Texas 2 straight weekend (once during Thanksgiving).

Quote from: smedindy on October 31, 2022, 12:53:50 PM
Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vaccuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

Quote from: hazzben on October 31, 2022, 03:51:28 PM

Quote from: smedindy on October 31, 2022, 12:53:50 PM
Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL [Lance Leipold] era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vacuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

Because UMU is the "easternmost" of the Level 1 powers, they anchor that northeastern most bracket and seldom get that challenge until the 3rd round, when they run into a Johns Hopkins, a John Carroll re-match, or a Wesley, (back-in-the-day).
Five times in the last 10 years, UMHB has eliminated an ASC team (McMurry in round 2 in 2011, Louisiana College in 2012, TLU in 2014, HSU in 2015 & 2018) from the playoffs.