Predict the winner this weekend and final placing.
I'm not sure what you would go on for this. The semifinal opponents have nothing in common. No common opponents. Chicago and W&L have a couple common opponents, CNU and Emory, but neither says much. Both teams beat CNU, W&L twice, and a tie in W&L's first game and a late close loss mark in a late season Chicago contest don't tell us much with the Emory games. NYU played both Chicago and Conn, but the score was a 3-0 loss both games. Obviously Conn and Amherst are conference mates, so if we get there, you'd like to say that 2-0 Amherst win is telling, but it was way back at the end of September.
I think any of these 4 teams is capable of winning their semifinal let alone the tournament. The few things that stand out... only W&L has been scored on in more than one tournament game. Chicago has yet to concede a goal, Amherst conceded only 1 and, with the exception of the Elite Eight Barn Burner, Conn College has 3 clean sweeps as well. W&L has yet to post a clean sheet in the tournament.
On the flip side, Conn Col has struggled to score in 2 games, going to penalties in a scoreless opener and getting a lone goal against Redlands. Putting up 5 on Tufts helps the average, and is an impressive feat any way you look at it, but it was the outlier.
W&L has scored somewhat freely, putting in 2 against Covenant but 3 against ranked CNU and Messiah, and their 14 goals is the most of any remaining team. Amherst sits right behind, scoring 13 times, easily outclassing opponents until faced with their conference mate Middleton. Chicago struggled to finish against Calvin, but comfortable topped the other 2 opponents by 2, 2 and 3 goals.
I think W&L looks vulnerable because clean sheets are important, but Conn College with 4 season losses and 5 total blemishes is not exactly giving that unbeatable feeling. My feeling is to lean Conn College, they don't give up many goals and at this stage I tend to lean defense, but when the Camels give up 2 or more in a game they are 1-4 on the season, the only win being the last against Tufts. So if W&L can get a goal or two first, it wouldn't surprise me to see them advance. If the Generals fall behind, that Conn defense is going to be a tough nut to crack.
Chicago with 6 blemishes looks beatable, but when you haven't given up a tournament goal, it's hard to lose. Or course Chicago also played, easily, the most Top 25 teams, with 11 games listed. With that schedule, the results are a bit more understandable. Amherst holds 4 blemishes, but only played half as many Top 25 teams.
I'm going to lean Amherst here. Their style is built for tournament games in the late season. Go at the goal, go hard, be aggressive. Refs aren't going to want to determine the outcome, so it takes a bit more for yellows and reds to appear, and that plays toward physical teams. Taking Route 1 also helps when it's a little colder, the grass isn't as clean late season, and goals are at a premium. But again, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago win. They have played plenty of good competition, they know what it takes, and if they can score, Amherst will be harder pressed to crack a defense sitting back waiting to clear long balls.
Of the two games, I find Chicago/Amherst more likely to end in penalties.
I agree with almost all of the above, including all four teams having close to equal chances.
Only two/three additional comments...
IMO Chicago's road to the Final 4 was the most impressive. Otterbein at Otterbein was a tricky, very difficult second round match. And the Calvin and then North Park combo was about as tough as it gets...two teams with a very realistic chance to make the Final 4 and possibly win a title. Amherst's only really difficult game was Middlebury. W&L's wins over CNU and Messiah on paper look similar to Calvin/North Park but W&L is quite familiar with CNU who allow goals and was at home, and imo Messiah, while very good and a legit challenger, was not the typical Messiah. Conn having to get through NYU, Redlands, and then Tufts feels about on par with what W&L did.
I think Chicago gets by Amherst IF they can keep GG off the board, which, on a big stage and a big field where he should have some space, is a huge IF obviously. The same could be said about the less widely heralded Yetishevsky for the Maroons. Cubeddu also could be an X factor.
W&L vs Conn is fascinating because both are new to the party, so there's not a "happy to be here, deer in the headlights" angle versus a Tufts or Calvin. And without knowing a ton about either, they seem to share a lot of similarities. I predict goals in this one, like a 4-2 or maybe 3-2 outcome. I can't guess which team has the 4 or 3.
Should be two good ones...the first like a SEC style offensive battle and the second one perhaps more Big 10ish. The great thing is that wouldn't be surprised if the first game is a 1-0 or PKs game with the second having a handful of goals.
Conn 1 - W&L 0
Chicago 3 - Amherst - 2
Chicago 1 - Conn 0
Con over W&L
Amherst over Chicago
Amherst over Con for finals.
Quote from: PaulNewman on December 01, 2021, 01:19:43 PM
I agree with almost all of the above, including all four teams having close to equal chances.
Only two/three additional comments...
IMO Chicago's road to the Final 4 was the most impressive. Otterbein at Otterbein was a tricky, very difficult second round match. And the Calvin and then North Park combo was about as tough as it gets...two teams with a very realistic chance to make the Final 4 and possibly win a title. Amherst's only really difficult game was Middlebury. W&L's wins over CNU and Messiah on paper look similar to Calvin/North Park but W&L is quite familiar with CNU who allow goals and was at home, and imo Messiah, while very good and a legit challenger, was not the typical Messiah. Conn having to get through NYU, Redlands, and then Tufts feels about on par with what W&L did.
I think Chicago gets by Amherst IF they can keep GG off the board, which, on a big stage and a big field where he should have some space, is a huge IF obviously. The same could be said about the less widely heralded Yetishevsky for the Maroons. Cubeddu also could be an X factor.
W&L vs Conn is fascinating because both are new to the party, so there's not a "happy to be here, deer in the headlights" angle versus a Tufts or Calvin. And without knowing a ton about either, they seem to share a lot of similarities. I predict goals in this one, like a 4-2 or maybe 3-2 outcome. I can't guess which team has the 4 or 3.
Should be two good ones...the first like a SEC style offensive battle and the second one perhaps more Big 10ish. The great thing is that wouldn't be surprised if the first game is a 1-0 or PKs game with the second having a handful of goals.
I completely agree. Both games could go either way. The whole 2nd Half Amherst was on its heels against Midd after #9 scored for Amherst with 2 minutes left in the 1st Half. They bunkered in after scoring which they will try to do again in this game unless Chicago can get the first goal IMO.
W&L - To me, this is the most mercurial of the teams left in the tourney. That weird patch they had left a lot of us scratching our heads towards the end of the season, but then they go out and handle Messiah. Don't care much that this is a slightly less mighty Messiah, that's a huge step for the Generals.
CC - I didn't see a lot of them this year, but given the conference strength and taking down Tufts in a tough environment... I like their chances.
CC over W&L (3-1)
Chicago - Another squad that is organized, balanced... And seems super comfortable playing at this late stage of the season.
Amherst - After all is said and done, this program is steeped in this atmosphere and I think their style of play works really well in pressurized situations.
Amherst over Chicago (2-1)
I think CC takes it in OT - 2-1
Quote from: Hopkins92 on December 03, 2021, 09:50:29 AM
W&L - To me, this is the most mercurial of the teams left in the tourney. That weird patch they had left a lot of us scratching our heads towards the end of the season, but then they go out and handle Messiah. Don't care much that this is a slightly less mighty Messiah, that's a huge step for the Generals.
CC - I didn't see a lot of them this year, but given the conference strength and taking down Tufts in a tough environment... I like their chances.
CC over W&L (3-1)
Chicago - Another squad that is organized, balanced... And seems super comfortable playing at this late stage of the season.
Amherst - After all is said and done, this program is steeped in this atmosphere and I think their style of play works really well in pressurized situations.
Amherst over Chicago (2-1)
I think CC takes it in OT - 2-1
Good take. I can see it. For Conn and W&L I keep thinking both are having a magical season which will continue. For Conn, W&L, and Chicago, I keep thinking "this is their year." So of course Amherst will take it. If it is Amherst in the final I wonder if CC having experience with Amherst in general and GG in particular would make a difference versus W&L seeing the Mammoths for the first time. I also have a feeling us East Coasters don't quite appreciate how good Chicago is.
W&L 3 Conn 2 (2OT)
Chicago 2 Amherst 1
Chicago 2 W&L 1
I like Chicago watch a few of their games because I know a few kids in UAA and Christopher New Port, I think that narrow home field affects their style of play and will work against them on big fields.
We are down to the final and while Con College has more balance, Amherst has better individual talent and experience!