Hello to all. I'm a new member with little to no understanding of how teams are chosen for the playoffs. If there's already a thread that explains the process, can someone point me to it. If not, can someone explain it to me? I apologize in advance for my ignorance. Also, how are the playoff opponents chosen? Thank you in advance.
https://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs
Welcome!
Here ya go :D
Thank You
Our 2021 projected bracket article (https://d3football.com/playoffs/2021/our-projected-bracket) will also walk through the round-by-round process of selecting the at-large teams and would be a good resource for getting a feel for how the process works.
Welcome to Division III football!
If we assign the unranked teams a value of Tied for 41st (41 points) in the November 13th Top 25 poll, then the Trinity TX bracket (lower right quadrant) is the toughest by far.
Lower right (Trinity) 116 points
Upper right (NCC) - 204 points
Upper left (SJU) - 160 points
Lower left (UMU) - 170 points
The Trinity quadrant has #3, #5, #6, #9, #13, #15, #20 and unranked Pomona-Pitzer
NCC has #10, #19, #22, RV29, and three unranked teams. They should be well-rested
SJU has #7, #8, #12, #23, #25, RV 40 and one unranked team.
UMU has #11, #14, #16, #17, RV T32, RV T37 and one unranked team
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
Quote from: Etchglow on November 13, 2022, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
I agree that the most loaded is the Island. However, I believe the SJU quadrant is far more difficult than the Mount Union quadrant than the numbers in the poll suggests.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2022, 10:47:32 PM
Quote from: Etchglow on November 13, 2022, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
I agree that the most loaded is the Island. However, I believe the SJU quadrant is far more difficult than the Mount Union quadrant than the numbers in the poll suggests.
I agree with this, and when the first two matchups were posted, had to remind myself of how, generally speaking, the level of opponent ramps up big time in the second round unless you get sent East.
Quote from: kiko on November 14, 2022, 01:30:33 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2022, 10:47:32 PM
Quote from: Etchglow on November 13, 2022, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
I agree that the most loaded is the Island. However, I believe the SJU quadrant is far more difficult than the Mount Union quadrant than the numbers in the poll suggests.
I agree with this, and when the first two matchups were posted, had to remind myself of how, generally speaking, the level of opponent ramps up big time in the second round unless you get sent East.
For Texas and those west the road is always difficult!
Quote from: Toby Taff on November 14, 2022, 09:09:00 AM
Quote from: kiko on November 14, 2022, 01:30:33 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2022, 10:47:32 PM
Quote from: Etchglow on November 13, 2022, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
I agree that the most loaded is the Island. However, I believe the SJU quadrant is far more difficult than the Mount Union quadrant than the numbers in the poll suggests.
I agree with this, and when the first two matchups were posted, had to remind myself of how, generally speaking, the level of opponent ramps up big time in the second round unless you get sent East.
For Texas and those west the road is always difficult!
That's life TT, ;D
But where's the chocolates? :-*
No hill for a climber? Right? ::) Zzz Island,
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2022, 09:42:38 AM
Quote from: Toby Taff on November 14, 2022, 09:09:00 AM
Quote from: kiko on November 14, 2022, 01:30:33 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2022, 10:47:32 PM
Quote from: Etchglow on November 13, 2022, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 13, 2022, 10:24:49 PM
Seems as if the quadrant that St John's lands in always has a harder path than Mount Union or the other quadrants.
Seems like they're in the second most loaded if you look at poll rankings. The Island quadrant is, as usual, insanely top loaded.
I agree that the most loaded is the Island. However, I believe the SJU quadrant is far more difficult than the Mount Union quadrant than the numbers in the poll suggests.
I agree with this, and when the first two matchups were posted, had to remind myself of how, generally speaking, the level of opponent ramps up big time in the second round unless you get sent East.
For Texas and those west the road is always difficult!
That's life TT, ;D
But where's the chocolates? :-*
No hill for a climber? Right? ::) Zzz Island,
I honestly barely looked at the UMU Bracket, and expected what we got in the top left and bottom right. Coach Fred used to get on the news every year after selection Sunday and say something like, it's a tough bracket but you have to beat' em all to win it all so order doesn't matter much. All this does is give all of those young defensive guys tougher competition and makes them better for the next run.
Warning: Mount Fan!!!
I'm not too surprised with the bracket this year, outside of Utica. Not because they don't deserve it, or because some else deserves it more, they just weren't on my radar at all. I think that spot would be King's if they would have won. I don't think that King's makes the tourney better or worse but the same.
My opinions: I think Mount comes out of their quad. Not because it's easy though, but I think they strap a set on and win. Susquehanna has a lot to prove and is tested and should make it to round 2 and give Mount a game. I think Dal. Val has shown some offensive burst in the last few weeks and they bring some game changing athletes. Nobile seems to be a Div 1 type of player. Even still I think Mount comes out on top.
I like UMHB in the lower right bracket. I think beat Trinity after Huntingdon, but not sure who the next victim is. Probably Linfield.
North Central has a cake walk in the upper right. Ithaca may challenge at first, but they're no match.
In the upper left...nail biter between UWW and St. Johns, with Warhawks getting revenge. UWL will make it interesting but ultimately fall short in Collegeville!!!
Quote from: Captainred81 on November 14, 2022, 04:29:25 PM
Warning: Mount Fan!!!
I'm not too surprised with the bracket this year, outside of Utica. Not because they don't deserve it, or because some else deserves it more, they just weren't on my radar at all. I think that spot would be King's if they would have won. I don't think that King's makes the tourney better or worse but the same.
My opinions: I think Mount comes out of their quad. Not because it's easy though, but I think they strap a set on and win. Susquehanna has a lot to prove and is tested and should make it to round 2 and give Mount a game. I think Dal. Val has shown some offensive burst in the last few weeks and they bring some game changing athletes. Nobile seems to be a Div 1 type of player. Even still I think Mount comes out on top.
I like UMHB in the lower right bracket. I think beat Trinity after Huntingdon, but not sure who the next victim is. Probably Linfield.
North Central has a cake walk in the upper right. Ithaca may challenge at first, but they're no match.
In the upper left...nail biter between UWW and St. Johns, with Warhawks getting revenge. UWL will make it interesting but ultimately fall short in Collegeville!!!
I am hoping that UWW is still embarrassed about how they didn't show up at SJU week one...and take it out on them for a trip to the Semis.
The question will be then, can UMU put up points against UWW's defense?
Quote from: Captainred81 on November 14, 2022, 04:29:25 PM
Warning: Mount Fan!!!
I'm not too surprised with the bracket this year, outside of Utica. Not because they don't deserve it, or because some else deserves it more, they just weren't on my radar at all. I think that spot would be King's if they would have won. I don't think that King's makes the tourney better or worse but the same.
My opinions: I think Mount comes out of their quad. Not because it's easy though, but I think they strap a set on and win. Susquehanna has a lot to prove and is tested and should make it to round 2 and give Mount a game. I think Dal. Val has shown some offensive burst in the last few weeks and they bring some game changing athletes. Nobile seems to be a Div 1 type of player. Even still I think Mount comes out on top.
I like UMHB in the lower right bracket. I think beat Trinity after Huntingdon, but not sure who the next victim is. Probably Linfield.
North Central has a cake walk in the upper right. Ithaca may challenge at first, but they're no match.
In the upper left...nail biter between UWW and St. Johns, with Warhawks getting revenge. UWL will make it interesting but ultimately fall short in Collegeville!!!
so basically, we could save a few weeks and just select a top 4?
I'm kidding of course, D3 has the best football tourney, but....
Nice (currently) front-page feature on ESPN about Gallaudet making the D3 tourney: https://www.espn.com/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35028610/deaf-hard-hearing-gallaudet-drive-division-iii-playoffs
Quote from: D3fanboy on November 16, 2022, 04:50:54 PM
Quote from: Captainred81 on November 14, 2022, 04:29:25 PM
Warning: Mount Fan!!!
I'm not too surprised with the bracket this year, outside of Utica. Not because they don't deserve it, or because some else deserves it more, they just weren't on my radar at all. I think that spot would be King's if they would have won. I don't think that King's makes the tourney better or worse but the same.
My opinions: I think Mount comes out of their quad. Not because it's easy though, but I think they strap a set on and win. Susquehanna has a lot to prove and is tested and should make it to round 2 and give Mount a game. I think Dal. Val has shown some offensive burst in the last few weeks and they bring some game changing athletes. Nobile seems to be a Div 1 type of player. Even still I think Mount comes out on top.
I like UMHB in the lower right bracket. I think beat Trinity after Huntingdon, but not sure who the next victim is. Probably Linfield.
North Central has a cake walk in the upper right. Ithaca may challenge at first, but they're no match.
In the upper left...nail biter between UWW and St. Johns, with Warhawks getting revenge. UWL will make it interesting but ultimately fall short in Collegeville!!!
so basically, we could save a few weeks and just select a top 4?
I'm kidding of course, D3 has the best football tourney, but....
It would save the NCAA money, right?
No bracket challenge anywhere for this season?
My bad, see it in the pick-ems now.
Kudos to the D3football.com guys for providing the D3 playoff live scoring all in one spot!
https://www.d3football.com/scoreboard/2022/ncaa-playoffs?date=2022-11-19
So who had the WIAC going 0-2 in the playoffs?
NACC vs MIAA in the 2nd round?
Pool C's two winners being Bethel and Utica?
Gotta love the playoffs ;D
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 19, 2022, 06:08:39 PM
So who had the WIAC going 0-2 in the playoffs?
NACC vs MIAA in the 2nd round?
Pool C's two winners being Bethel and Utica?
Gotta love the playoffs ;D
And, the carnage occurs in my Pick'ems when the WIAC teams are not advancing in the 2-point, the 4-point and 8-point rounds of the Challenge.
This would be a good week to have 4 games start at noon EST, especially because they are in northern latitudes.
Then have 2 CST zone games up north (NCC and SJU) start at 1PM EST.
Have Trinity/UMHB start at 2PM EST, delayed an hour, just because San Antonio weather usually tolerates it.
Finally, Linfield starting at 3PM EST.
I wish they would stagger start times for games. It stinks trying to watch one and flip flop back between other contests....especially if you're tuned into a good one and don't want to miss any plays. ::)
I suspect the powers-that-be are VERY cognizant of potential weather and early darkness issues. If you schedule for 12:00 you give yourself last-minute options.
Quote from: edward de vere on November 20, 2022, 08:21:55 PM
I suspect the powers-that-be are VERY cognizant of potential weather and early darkness issues. If you schedule for 12:00 you give yourself last-minute options.
Absolutely darkness is huge. No idea how many D3 stadiums have lights. IC doesn't I know.
SJU has lights.
Quote from: edward de vere on November 20, 2022, 08:21:55 PM
I suspect the powers-that-be are VERY cognizant of potential weather and early darkness issues. If you schedule for 12:00 you give yourself last-minute options.
... which is why I suggested the staggers that I did. The only game that I suggested a later start was the UMHB at Trinity game, to start at 1PM CST. Trinity has lights.
Actually I am more concerned about a lightning/thunderstorm in Texas in November than darkness. We have had 2 thunderstorms in east Texas this month.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 20, 2022, 09:20:42 PM
Quote from: edward de vere on November 20, 2022, 08:21:55 PM
I suspect the powers-that-be are VERY cognizant of potential weather and early darkness issues. If you schedule for 12:00 you give yourself last-minute options.
... which is why I suggested the staggers that I did. The only game that I suggested a later start was the UMHB at Trinity game, to start at 1PM CST. Trinity has lights.
Actually I am more concerned about a lightning/thunderstorm in Texas in November than darkness. We have had 2 thunderstorms in east Texas this month.
Wait. There are D3 schools without lights? I can't imagine any school putting up the money to put in a field and not putting in field lights. Severely limits the utility of the field (across multiple sports).
100% agree. The football field (if turf) can be striped for soccer, lacrosse, track and field, etc. would stink to not have lights. Lights are very beneficial for use after hours of all sports. Also, they provide security lighting for campus. I know in Texas the early season games are so warm that most teams have a night game to help with the extreme heat. It's almost a given down here.
Quote from: tigerguy on November 20, 2022, 09:33:14 PM
Wait. There are D3 schools without lights? I can't imagine any school putting up the money to put in a field and not putting in field lights. Severely limits the utility of the field (across multiple sports).
Plenty. Wabash doesn't have lights. Just clicking through the teams with pictures of stadiums and it's maybe 50 50 or lower. A lot of stadiums are older and retro-fitting to lights may be expensive.
Also, many also have many different fields now for several sports.
The issue of a lighted field can be handled on a case by case basis.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 21, 2022, 12:38:14 AM
The issue of a lighted field can be handled on a case by case basis.
I think it's also about the consistency of the experience/toll for travel across teams. If everyone has a noon local start, you get some staggering just due to time zones. But no team is being asked to finish a game 6 pm, talk to the media, shower, load up, eat, and drive home. That sounds like a small thing, but attrition, staying healthy, and the ability to treat players is a big part of continuing to advance. I think some of this is probably meant to ensure that there's an equal footing for all teams when it comes to travel details.
Quote from: hazzben on November 21, 2022, 09:42:59 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 21, 2022, 12:38:14 AM
The issue of a lighted field can be handled on a case by case basis.
I think it's also about the consistency of the experience/toll for travel across teams. If everyone has a noon local start, you get some staggering just due to time zones. But no team is being asked to finish a game 6 pm, talk to the media, shower, load up, eat, and drive home. That sounds like a small thing, but attrition, staying healthy, and the ability to treat players is a big part of continuing to advance. I think some of this is probably meant to ensure that there's an equal footing for all teams when it comes to travel details.
This is another good point
I mean, for a while I was always surprised when a D-3 school HAD lights.
Quote from: hazzben on November 21, 2022, 09:42:59 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 21, 2022, 12:38:14 AM
The issue of a lighted field can be handled on a case by case basis.
I think it's also about the consistency of the experience/toll for travel across teams. If everyone has a noon local start, you get some staggering just due to time zones. But no team is being asked to finish a game 6 pm, talk to the media, shower, load up, eat, and drive home. That sounds like a small thing, but attrition, staying healthy, and the ability to treat players is a big part of continuing to advance. I think some of this is probably meant to ensure that there's an equal footing for all teams when it comes to travel details.
I feel like this is a time when a one size solution is being used so that all things are equal but they are not equal at all. I know they didn't win but assuming Huntingdon had won, they would have flown to Texas on Friday, played and flown back on Saturday, just to fly back (during the Thanksgiving week) to Texas. Now that I type this I realize Linfield did this very thing in 2016 and close to the same thing last year. Now you might say flying is somewhat easier than getting on a bus, that may be true but then you have some that travel 50 miles and some that travel 499 miles, my point is these things aren't equal so we don't have to pretend they are.
Quote from: crufootball on November 21, 2022, 04:43:21 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 21, 2022, 09:42:59 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 21, 2022, 12:38:14 AM
The issue of a lighted field can be handled on a case by case basis.
I think it's also about the consistency of the experience/toll for travel across teams. If everyone has a noon local start, you get some staggering just due to time zones. But no team is being asked to finish a game 6 pm, talk to the media, shower, load up, eat, and drive home. That sounds like a small thing, but attrition, staying healthy, and the ability to treat players is a big part of continuing to advance. I think some of this is probably meant to ensure that there's an equal footing for all teams when it comes to travel details.
I feel like this is a time when a one size solution is being used so that all things are equal but they are not equal at all. I know they didn't win but assuming Huntingdon had won, they would have flown to Texas on Friday, played and flown back on Saturday, just to fly back (during the Thanksgiving week) to Texas. Now that I type this I realize Linfield did this very thing in 2016 and close to the same thing last year. Now you might say flying is somewhat easier than getting on a bus, that may be true but then you have some that travel 50 miles and some that travel 499 miles, my point is these things aren't equal so we don't have to pretend they are.
Travel's always a hardship in the playoffs.
Today's podcast talked about greatest upsets in the history of the 5-week playoff.
In 2004, Pool C UMHB goes to Trinity and wins 32-13.
They travel to HSU, which received the 1st round bye, ostensibly the #1 seed in that bracket, and beat the Cowboys 42-28.
UMHB went to W&J in the 3rd round and beat the Presidents 52-16.
Is that an equivalent of a #7 (bottom-most) seed upsetting 3 higher seeds?
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 22, 2022, 12:47:34 AM
Today's podcast talked about greatest upsets in the history of the 5-week playoff.
In 2004, Pool C UMHB goes to Trinity and wins 32-13.
They travel to HSU, which received the 1st round bye, ostensibly the #1 seed in that bracket, and beat the Cowboys 42-28.
UMHB went to W&J in the 3rd round and beat the Presidents 52-16.
Is that an equivalent of a #7 (bottom-most) seed upsetting 3 higher seeds?
Not necessarily a single upset, but the 2008 playoffs were wacky. The quarterfinals had #1 seed over a #3, #2 over a #5, #5 over a #7 and #7 over a #5. Those eight teams had a combined 9 losses entering the tournament with just one of them (Mount Union) being unbeaten.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 22, 2022, 12:47:34 AM
Today's podcast talked about greatest upsets in the history of the 5-week playoff.
In 2004, Pool C UMHB goes to Trinity and wins 32-13.
They travel to HSU, which received the 1st round bye, ostensibly the #1 seed in that bracket, and beat the Cowboys 42-28.
UMHB went to W&J in the 3rd round and beat the Presidents 52-16.
Is that an equivalent of a #7 (bottom-most) seed upsetting 3 higher seeds?
That's probably correct. But according to the 2004 Week 11 rankings, UMHB was ranked #8 in the county going into the playoffs. So, they beat Trinity 1st Round (Ranked #7); HSU 2nd Round (Ranked #3), and W&J (Ranked #5). So yes, those are all "upsets," but I wouldn't rank any of those games in the upper echelon of "upsets" considering UMHB's overall ranking. Frankly, sounds like a standard Texas/Island bracket in terms of matchups.
Quote from: tigerguy on November 22, 2022, 09:32:04 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 22, 2022, 12:47:34 AM
Today's podcast talked about greatest upsets in the history of the 5-week playoff.
In 2004, Pool C UMHB goes to Trinity and wins 32-13.
They travel to HSU, which received the 1st round bye, ostensibly the #1 seed in that bracket, and beat the Cowboys 42-28.
UMHB went to W&J in the 3rd round and beat the Presidents 52-16.
Is that an equivalent of a #7 (bottom-most) seed upsetting 3 higher seeds?
That's probably correct. But according to the 2004 Week 11 rankings, UMHB was ranked #8 in the county going into the playoffs. So, they beat Trinity 1st Round (Ranked #7); HSU 2nd Round (Ranked #3), and W&J (Ranked #5). So yes, those are all "upsets," but I wouldn't rank any of those games in the upper echelon of "upsets" considering UMHB's overall ranking. Frankly, sounds like a standard Texas/Island bracket in terms of matchups.
Yeah, very impressive run for sure. But not an upset of the magnitude that Aurora just pulled off, both for their program and their conference as a whole.
None of the teams that got first-round byes and lost in round 2 can really be considered for that big upset, no. That's no 8-seed they are playing.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 22, 2022, 02:43:35 PM
None of the teams that got first-round byes and lost in round 2 can really be considered for that big upset, no. That's no 8-seed they are playing.
An unranked Curry (1 point in the Top 25 poll) beating #12 Ithaca has to be high on the list.
Quote from: hazzben on November 22, 2022, 09:34:43 AM
Yeah, very impressive run for sure. But not an upset of the magnitude that Aurora just pulled off, both for their program and their conference as a whole.
I guess Aurora taking SJU to the wire two years in a row wasn't a freakshow after all. I know there was a bit of scepticism on the boards when SJU posters were saying "These guys are freaking good." Well, it was SJU types that were very quick to say to UWW "Beware the Aurora Dragons. They have teeth."
I guess what I'm saying is it was an upset, yes, but not a surprise to many. Aurora were going to get their big victory. It was just a question of which team would supply it.
Quote from: OzJohnnie on November 22, 2022, 10:31:44 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 22, 2022, 09:34:43 AM
Yeah, very impressive run for sure. But not an upset of the magnitude that Aurora just pulled off, both for their program and their conference as a whole.
I guess Aurora taking SJU to the wire two years in a row wasn't a freakshow after all. I know there was a bit of scepticism on the boards when SJU posters were saying "These guys are freaking good." Well, it was SJU types that were very quick to say to UWW "Beware the Aurora Dragons. They have teeth."
I guess what I'm saying is it was an upset, yes, but not a surprise to many. Aurora were going to get their big victory. It was just a question of which team would supply it.
I agree with this. One thing I can say for sure is UW-W didn't underestimate them. First of all, saying that diminishes a well-earned victory. Secondly, one of the fundamentals of our program is to respect every opponent. They earned it. They got us.
It is so hard to gauge the strength of D3 across the country. Everything to the east and northeast of Alliance OH gets funneled into that Purple Raider sausage maker. I only caught a portion of UMU-DVC but it looked like UMU had the game under control on the road to knock out the best team from 2.5 regions of the country. (RMC, Region 3 lost the DVC without their starting QB.)
Meanwhile, NCC demolished a nominal "power team" in Region 2. So much for everything east and northeast of Alliance OH.
Meanwhile, in the western half of the country, Wartburg "de-shoed" Cinderella and UMHB finally put away a strong Bethel team. I recall the UMHB HSU game where HSU went ahead early in the second quarter, and 3 minutes later, UMHB had struck devastating blows. Bethel goes ahead by 2 scores and 2:40 later BU is behind for the 1st time. UMHB turns the game, just like they did against HSU, and the Royals do not recover.
I will not disparage UMU. Their program is incredible. They rise to the occasion. However, aside from JCU have they met a comparable team? That is what makes the UMU-Wartburg game so intriguing. Did Wartburg claim Cinderella's shoes as booty? We will see.
As for NCC-UMHB, I will be cautious. NCC has been dominating. UMHB has come thru a bracket of doom after fending off HSU and HPU in conference and the gut check caused by the loss at UWW.
Great article on the front about Wartburg.
https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2022/wartburg-wasnt-right-time-to-leave
The sidebar has a list on the teams that made it to the Semis in the 17 years of the 32-team bracket.
I have assembled the list by Conference.
OAC 17 (UMU 16 JCU 1, the year that JCU won the OAC).
WIAC 16 (UWW 13 UWO 3)
ASC 9 (all UMHB)
MIAC 6 (Tommies 3, BU 2 Johnnies 1)
Wesley 6 (ACFC 3, Independent 2 or NJAC)
CCIW 5 (NCC 4, Wheaton 1)
NWC 3 (all Linfield)
Centennial 2 (JHU 1, Mules 1)
E8 2 (Brockport 1, SJF 1)
NJAC 2* (Rowan, Wesley*)
ARC 1 (Wartburg)
When you look at those semi-finalists, you see:
1) The OAC bracket (17 years)
2) The WIAC bracket (16 years)
3) A west bracket (ASC, NWC, MIAC; 9 + 3 + 6 = 18 teams)
4) The "Everybody Else Bracket", especially when Wesley would knock off everybody to the south and east of the other 3 brackets.
This year, Wartburg won the "WIAC" braket.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 09, 2022, 01:40:51 PM
Great article on the front about Wartburg.
https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2022/wartburg-wasnt-right-time-to-leave
The sidebar has a list on the teams that made it to the Semis in the 17 years of the 32-team bracket.
I have assembled the list by Conference.
OAC 17 (UMU 16 JCU 1, the year that JCU won the OAC).
WIAC 16 (UWW 13 UWO 3)
ASC 9 (all UMHB)
MIAC 6 (Tommies 3, BU 2 Johnnies 1)
Wesley 6 (ACFC 3, Independent 2 or NJAC)
CCIW 5 (NCC 4, Wheaton 1)
NWC 3 (all Linfield)
Centennial 2 (JHU 1, Mules 1)
E8 2 (Brockport 1, SJF 1)
NJAC 2* (Rowan, Wesley*)
ARC 1 (Wartburg)
When I read the list, I see:
Mount Union 16
Whitewater 13
UMHB 9
.....
Everyone else.
North Central charging hard but has some serious ground to make up.
The 2024 NCAA pre-championship manual is out (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2024-25D3MFB_PreChampionshipManual.pdf), containing NPI weights and more.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 09, 2024, 08:33:50 AMThe 2024 NCAA pre-championship manual is out (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2024-25D3MFB_PreChampionshipManual.pdf), containing NPI weights and more.
The big thing here is it finally lays out when they will put out rankings: Oct. 28, Nov. 4, Nov. 11 and Nov. 17 (selection show)
Of course, we've been running our unofficial NPI numbers each week and will continue to do so here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/
Pie in the sky request:
I love the craziness of a three-way one-loss tie at the top of a conference (Team A beats Team B, Team B beats Team C, Team C beats Team A) but I love knowing the outcome of it as I'm watching. Can fans share their conference's three-way tie break scenarios?
If the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs. While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs. If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?
Quote from: Captainred81 on October 21, 2024, 03:12:35 PMIf the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs. While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs. If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?
That's the way I am reading this new system, yes. If you look at current NPI rankings it lines up very close to win %. Very few 2 loss teams ahead of any 1 loss teams. HansenRatings has modeled out the remainder of the season on his site and has Pool C %'s listed. Important to remember that besides the emphasis on win %, the "minimum 5 wins" isn't an entry to the field criteria, it's that NPI is calculated on the 5 "best" wins from a 10 game schedule (or 9 game) so that as teams get 6,7,8 games deep their "bad" wins drop off in favor of "good wins" if applicable. So NPI is very dynamic and will change potentially dramatically over the last few weeks of the season.
Quote from: USee on October 21, 2024, 04:39:46 PMQuote from: Captainred81 on October 21, 2024, 03:12:35 PMIf the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs. While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs. If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?
That's the way I am reading this new system, yes. If you look at current NPI rankings it lines up very close to win %. Very few 2 loss teams ahead of any 1 loss teams. HansenRatings has modeled out the remainder of the season on his site and has Pool C %'s listed. Important to remember that besides the emphasis on win %, the "minimum 5 wins" isn't an entry to the field criteria, it's that NPI is calculated on the 5 "best" wins from a 10 game schedule (or 9 game) so that as teams get 6,7,8 games deep their "bad" wins drop off in favor of "good wins" if applicable. So NPI is very dynamic and will change potentially dramatically over the last few weeks of the season.
Maybe just a minor clarification to the line I bolded above but if your sixth win helps your NPI, it will be included. For teams that finish undefeated, their NPI will certainly be calculated based on their five best wins. For teams that have one ore more loss, it may be five wins that are kept but also could be more. It just depends on where that line is that counting additional wins would hurt their NPI.
I have a question for clarification:
The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".
Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.
How is that handled under the new system? Thanks.
So teams like those in the PAC that could all tie at 9-1, will be looked upon more favorably than say LAX or Whitewater who will have 2 D3 losses at least.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:
The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".
Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.
How is that handled under the new system? Thanks.
an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all. At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools. Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.
Quote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AMQuote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:
The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".
Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.
How is that handled under the new system? Thanks.
an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all. At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools. Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.
I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).
Quote from: lmitzel on October 22, 2024, 02:38:27 PMQuote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AMQuote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:
The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".
Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.
How is that handled under the new system? Thanks.
an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all. At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools. Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.
I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/D3CC_NPIWeights.pdf
Quote from: lmitzel on October 22, 2024, 02:38:27 PMQuote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AMQuote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:
The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".
Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.
How is that handled under the new system? Thanks.
an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all. At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools. Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.
I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).
That's correct and to hear the D3Datacast guys describe it that's a big difference between basketball and football because its very hard for the SOS part to overcome the win% number which has the effect of ordering teams by win% and then by SOS within that. So the undefeated teams will be ordered by SOS and the 1 loss teams as well, etc. SOS most likely won't be high enough to allow a 2 loss team to get ranked ahead of a 1 loss team because of this weighting.
Join us for a special #d3fb edition of the D3 Datacast!
What D3 Football Fans Should Know About NPI - D3 Datacast - Episode 89
✅NPI crash course
✅Learning from "history"
✅Setting expectations
📺: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94_NTM2k1nc
NPI is now updated after yesterday games
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39771
Looking at the NPI, the team I feel the most empathy for is Ithaca.
Losses to Endicott, JHU and Hobart.
They might have 4 losses, each to a conference champion.
I've been thinking about how good the WIAC really is...
I think LAX losing to GVSU by 7 is the thing that is throwing everything off. I was looking at the D2 website, and Grand Valley is good team in their conference and their division, and the make up of their team includes scholarship players... so the expectation is that they will be bigger faster and stronger than a D3 team. However, Lacrosse beat Northern Michigan and Alma beat northern Michigan and Oshkosh lost to Michigan tech and Whitewater beat Roosevelt. I guess what I'm saying is that the close loss to GVSU may not be the resounding achievement that we're all making it to be.
I can't make sense of it
If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right? If they lose one, they're out completely maybe? Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)
If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out? Completely with 2 losses?
If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP?
Are these team rooting for status quo? IE Mount and JCU to beat Marietta, Whitworth to be linfield, SJU to win the MIAC outright etc... This way they are reducing the amount of 9-1 teams throughout the division? Thus making it easier for an 8-2 to make it in?
Ultimately, the most competitive league in the division may end up with 1 team in the playoffs, by NPI rankings, due to some OOC losses and round robin beatings within the conference.
All that being said, all this hoo ha about putting the WIAC teams in another conference and having be a cake walk is ridiculous. Member when WW played aurora in the first round of the playoffs a couple years ago? Aurora is in the NACC. Just because they are very competitive with each other, doesn't mean they'll roll into the playoffs and advance.
FWIW, I would add that Stout lost at home by double digits to CCIW #6 Carrol (4-4) and North Central just beat Carroll 56-3.
Quote from: Captainred81 on November 06, 2024, 10:58:51 AMI've been thinking about how good the WIAC really is...
I think LAX losing to GVSU by 7 is the thing that is throwing everything off. I was looking at the D2 website, and Grand Valley is good team in their conference and their division, and the make up of their team includes scholarship players... so the expectation is that they will be bigger faster and stronger than a D3 team. However, Lacrosse beat Northern Michigan and Alma beat northern Michigan and Oshkosh lost to Michigan tech and Whitewater beat Roosevelt. I guess what I'm saying is that the close loss to GVSU may not be the resounding achievement that we're all making it to be.
I can't make sense of it
If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right? If they lose one, they're out completely maybe? Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)
If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out? Completely with 2 losses?
If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP?
Are these team rooting for status quo? IE Mount and JCU to beat Marietta, Whitworth to be linfield, SJU to win the MIAC outright etc... This way they are reducing the amount of 9-1 teams throughout the division? Thus making it easier for an 8-2 to make it in?
Ultimately, the most competitive league in the division may end up with 1 team in the playoffs, by NPI rankings, due to some OOC losses and round robin beatings within the conference.
All that being said, all this hoo ha about putting the WIAC teams in another conference and having be a cake walk is ridiculous. Member when WW played aurora in the first round of the playoffs a couple years ago? Aurora is in the NACC. Just because they are very competitive with each other, doesn't mean they'll roll into the playoffs and advance.
If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right? If they lose one, they're out completely maybe? Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)
D2 loss doesnt count against them, they are probably still in if the only lose 1 more.
If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out? Completely with 2 losses?
Platteville still in unless they go 0-2 the next 2 weeksIf stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP?
Not sure what WIAC tiebreakers are, but that could leave a 4-way tie at 5-2 in conference (depends how Lacrosse does). Oshkosh and Platteville still would make it as Pool C if they both only have 2 losses and Lacrosse might as well. this is all based off Logan Hansen's model predictions. as of right now, UWP and UWO are most likely in, and Lacrosse needs to win out to be in. There are scenarios where the WIAC sends anywhere from 1 to 4 teams to playoffs based on the next 2 weeks. I have been following the WIAC outcomes pretty closely because the last mock bracket Logan put out had NCC facing Lacrosse in round of 32, potentially facing Platteville in round of 16 and then Oshkosh in the quarterfinals. Really hoping that doesnt happen lol.
The current NPI rankings of teams not locked in yet
3 St John's
8 Springfield
9 Whitworth
12 DePauw
14 UW-Platteville
19 Bethel
20 Wash & Jeff
23 Carnegie Mellon
24 Grove City
25 Linfield
26 Ursinus
27 Marietta
28 Berry
29 UW-Oshkosh
30 Wabash
32 Coe
33 Centre
34 Texas Lutheran
36 UW-La Crosse
37 Mary Hardin-Baylor
38 Trinity (TX)
39 Wheaton
40 Monmouth
One of the PAC trio (20, 23, 24) will take pool A, same with MIAC (3, 19), NWC (9, 25), SAA (28, 33, 38), and NCAC (12, 30). Also win and in pool A are Springfield and Platteville.
If highest ranked teams all win that would put the line somewhere around the TLU, UWL, UMHB area but doesn't factor in teams above (19, 25, 30) dropping from losses. I think Wabash would drop below the line, Linfield would be right near the bubble and Bethel might just stay in.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 11, 2024, 02:10:43 AMThe current NPI rankings of teams not locked in yet
3 St John's
8 Springfield
9 Whitworth
12 DePauw
14 UW-Platteville
19 Bethel
20 Wash & Jeff
23 Carnegie Mellon
24 Grove City
25 Linfield
26 Ursinus
27 Marietta
28 Berry
29 UW-Oshkosh
30 Wabash
32 Coe
33 Centre
34 Texas Lutheran
36 UW-La Crosse
37 Mary Hardin-Baylor
38 Trinity (TX)
39 Wheaton
40 Monmouth
One of the PAC trio (20, 23, 24) will take pool A, same with MIAC (3, 19), NWC (9, 25), SAA (28, 33, 38), and NCAC (12, 30). Also win and in pool A are Springfield and Platteville.
If highest ranked teams all win that would put the line somewhere around the TLU, UWL, UMHB area but doesn't factor in teams above (19, 25, 30) dropping from losses. I think Wabash would drop below the line, Linfield would be right near the bubble and Bethel might just stay in.
Good breakdown, I've updated my bracket based upon these findings.
You might also want to listen to today's D3football.com podcast (https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2024/11/11/atn-podcast-367-close-calls/) which posits the 12 at-large teams if chalk happens, taking Logan Hansen's data/projections into account.
So, when the brackets are created are they going to take the 16 lowest ranked teams by NPI and make them play in round one? Or will it be subjective to travel restrictions and the like? I was messing around yesterday and came up with some possible scenarios that have more island teams than normal.
Linfield beats Whitworth and both make the field.
Chapman (assumed AQ)
Texas Lutheran
Hardin Simmons
Would they matchup TLU and HSU in the first round to avoid travel? Or would they bump TLU to next round to avoid travel? They can make a NWC team play chapman, if the other NWC team is not a top 8, they can't match them up with the winner of that west coast 1st round game...can they?
I know that a lot of the uncertainty is removed with this new system, because of the instantaneous nature of the math and the elimination of the human factor in choosing teams, but I still feel like I don't know who is going to make it in.
Is there criteria for the bracketing outside of the top eight teams?
Trinity may also make the field, so that helps with the Texas island.
HSU is a protected seed at the moment. They couldn't make them play in the first round.
It is indeed supposed to be the lowest 16 teams in the NPI that play the first weekend.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 12, 2024, 04:01:14 PMTrinity may also make the field, so that helps with the Texas island.
HSU is a protected seed at the moment. They couldn't make them play in the first round.
It is indeed supposed to be the lowest 16 teams in the NPI that play the first weekend.
I feel the need that this should be emphasized with a Bold Italic.
Any idea how the pairings go after? Will the winners of the of the opening rounds be paired against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in each of the quadrants?
So many questions...LOL
Yes, that's correct.
The first round games (with who the winner faces)
Northwestern @ UW-La Crosse (St John's)
Bethel @ Coe (Lake Forest)
Alfred St @ Endicott (Cortland)
Pomona-Pizter @ Whitworth (North Central)
Mary Hardin-Baylor @ Trinity TX (Hardin-Simmons)
Maryville @ Berry (DePauw)
Ursinus @ King's (Salisbury)
Mount St Joseph @ John Carroll (Mount Union)
Ursinus probably should have had the week off as 24th ranked NPI and not only don't get the week off but are on the road.
Why did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Quote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conference is grandfathered in for a few years after falling below the limit. Gives them a grace period to find new members without losing the AQ.
Quote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Hardin-Simmons?
Yes, but Hardin-Simmons would be in on their merits, regardless of conference. 5-5 is a different story.
Quote from: Whitecarrera on November 18, 2024, 08:16:25 AMYes, but Hardin-Simmons would be in on their merits, regardless of conference. 5-5 is a different story.
Like it or not, tournament access for all members is one of the cornerstone tenants of DIII. Alfred State will most likely get blown out in their first game, but they rightfully earned their spot to play in that game
Quote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conferences have 2 years once they fall below the minimum threshold of teams (currently 6) before they lose their Pool A bid. This was the ECFC's 2nd season with just 4 teams. If the conference were to stay together next season they would not have a pool A bid, but that doesn't matter since all four have found new homes for next year (Gallaudet to ODAC, Alfred St to E8, Anna Maria and Dean to MASCAC)
The ASC is currently in the same position. They will have a pool A bid next year but will lose it in 2026 if they don't get back to 6 teams.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2024, 09:27:10 AMQuote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conferences have 2 years once they fall below the minimum threshold of teams (currently 6) before they lose their Pool A bid. This was the ECFC's 2nd season with just 4 teams. If the conference were to stay together next season they would not have a pool A bid, but that doesn't matter since all four have found new homes for next year (Gallaudet to ODAC, Alfred St to E8, Anna Maria and Dean to MASCAC)
The ASC is currently in the same position. They will have a pool A bid next year but will lose it in 2026 if they don't get back to 6 teams.
I know this issue affects all sports but I wonder if the lack of an automatic bid will be as scary in football as it was in the past now that we have 12 at-large bids. I don't think anyone in the ASC hopes we are in the same situation come 2026 but not many conferences can say 50% of their membership made the playoffs with one being the #2 overall seed.
Quote from: crufootball on November 18, 2024, 10:10:29 AMQuote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2024, 09:27:10 AMQuote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conferences have 2 years once they fall below the minimum threshold of teams (currently 6) before they lose their Pool A bid. This was the ECFC's 2nd season with just 4 teams. If the conference were to stay together next season they would not have a pool A bid, but that doesn't matter since all four have found new homes for next year (Gallaudet to ODAC, Alfred St to E8, Anna Maria and Dean to MASCAC)
The ASC is currently in the same position. They will have a pool A bid next year but will lose it in 2026 if they don't get back to 6 teams.
I know this issue affects all sports but I wonder if the lack of an automatic bid will be as scary in football as it was in the past now that we have 12 at-large bids. I don't think anyone in the ASC hopes we are in the same situation come 2026 but not many conferences can say 50% of their membership made the playoffs with one being the #2 overall seed.
Meh, if the ASC had 8 teams this would be a more significant flex. I actually wonder if there isn't something done to require a certain threshhold of in division games and/or wins to make the field as an at large. That's not a knock on UMHB, you can only play the teams that will pick up the phone.
Quote from: hazzben on November 18, 2024, 10:29:42 AMQuote from: crufootball on November 18, 2024, 10:10:29 AMQuote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2024, 09:27:10 AMQuote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conferences have 2 years once they fall below the minimum threshold of teams (currently 6) before they lose their Pool A bid. This was the ECFC's 2nd season with just 4 teams. If the conference were to stay together next season they would not have a pool A bid, but that doesn't matter since all four have found new homes for next year (Gallaudet to ODAC, Alfred St to E8, Anna Maria and Dean to MASCAC)
The ASC is currently in the same position. They will have a pool A bid next year but will lose it in 2026 if they don't get back to 6 teams.
I know this issue affects all sports but I wonder if the lack of an automatic bid will be as scary in football as it was in the past now that we have 12 at-large bids. I don't think anyone in the ASC hopes we are in the same situation come 2026 but not many conferences can say 50% of their membership made the playoffs with one being the #2 overall seed.
Meh, if the ASC had 8 teams this would be a more significant flex. I actually wonder if there isn't something done to require a certain threshhold of in division games and/or wins to make the field as an at large. That's not a knock on UMHB, you can only play the teams that will pick up the phone.
Oh I know its not the flex you want but for all the talk about the state of the ASC it didn't hurt them in the world of NPI. I know we all want the security of the automatic bid but with so many at-large bids (which is awesome BTW) you aren't so desperate for them as we once were.
Quote from: hazzben on November 18, 2024, 10:29:42 AMQuote from: crufootball on November 18, 2024, 10:10:29 AMQuote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2024, 09:27:10 AMQuote from: Whitecarrera on November 17, 2024, 06:37:06 PMWhy did a conference with four teams get an automatic bid? Alfred State?
Conferences have 2 years once they fall below the minimum threshold of teams (currently 6) before they lose their Pool A bid. This was the ECFC's 2nd season with just 4 teams. If the conference were to stay together next season they would not have a pool A bid, but that doesn't matter since all four have found new homes for next year (Gallaudet to ODAC, Alfred St to E8, Anna Maria and Dean to MASCAC)
The ASC is currently in the same position. They will have a pool A bid next year but will lose it in 2026 if they don't get back to 6 teams.
I know this issue affects all sports but I wonder if the lack of an automatic bid will be as scary in football as it was in the past now that we have 12 at-large bids. I don't think anyone in the ASC hopes we are in the same situation come 2026 but not many conferences can say 50% of their membership made the playoffs with one being the #2 overall seed.
Meh, if the ASC had 8 teams this would be a more significant flex. I actually wonder if there isn't something done to require a certain threshhold of in division games and/or wins to make the field as an at large. That's not a knock on UMHB, you can only play the teams that will pick up the phone.
In mens soccer the NESCAC sent 8 of 11 teams to the tournament this year. They took 1/3 of all pool C spots.
In womens soccer the UAA sent 7 of 8 teams.
It does seem way more competitive in this years bracket. I expect LAX to beat Northwestern by a lot, and Endicott will win by 2-3 scores, JCU should win by 2-3 scores. After those games, and with out projecting any winners, I don't see any obvious blowout games. Probably the winner of Bethel and Coe will beat Lake Forest by a few scores. If Berry advances, I don' see them losing by the same margin a 2nd time. Maybe NCC will put a hurt on who ever comes over from left coast.
I don't see a clear cut winner for any of the quads.
These brackets are gonna be tough
I believe that the 21-3 record by the home team in the playoffs thru the 1st two rounds suggests that that NPI rankings were accurate, with the exception of the artefactual case of UMHB. IMHO, they were the outlier because of the paucity of games against quality opponents in the season. Had they had 2-3 more games that counted, then I believe that they might have ranked higher. The Trinity TX game might have flipped to Belton. Having to play HSU 3 times in a season is artefactual in and of itself.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 02, 2024, 09:25:17 PMI believe that the 21-3 record by the home team in the playoffs thru the 1st two rounds suggests that that NPI rankings were accurate, with the exception of the artefactual case of UMHB. IMHO, they were the outlier because of the paucity of games against quality opponents in the season. Had they had 2-3 more games that counted, then I believe that they might have ranked higher. The Trinity TX game might have flipped to Belton. Having to play HSU 3 times in a season is artefactual in and of itself.
Hmm. I can't argue your opening sentence, but is that the point? I mean, if the D3 ranked #2 played at #1 in the first round, I'd bet on #1 winning. The same is true for #4 at #3 and so on.