We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.
OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.
ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28
SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.
WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.
MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.
CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.
ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)
QuoteFrom the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.
LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?
E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport
and Ithaca.
MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.
Who else is on the radar? This is fun!
(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)
NWC. Linfield hosting Whitworth ? Nov 11th game. Tip of the hat to desertcat1.
Does the 8-1 loser with a so-so SOS really have a chance with only 4 Pool C bids? In an expanded playoff, beyond 32-teams and with more Pool C bids, maybe.
I don't know if a one loss DePauw or Wabash (one d3) loss will have an argument for a C....
I'll work on the Pool C eliminator and get it posted tonight.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 08, 2023, 04:25:03 PM
I'll work on the Pool C eliminator and get it posted tonight.
+1! FCGG
I hope you know how much we appreciate you and your contributions!
:)
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 08, 2023, 03:31:26 PM
We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.
OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.
ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28
SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.
WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.
MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.
CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.
ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)
QuoteFrom the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.
LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?
E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport and Ithaca.
MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.
Who else is on the radar? This is fun!
(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)
CC - Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins will have at least 2/3 regional rank wins.
Remember that this is for Pool C purposes. Teams eliminated here can still make the playoffs via pool A. Not all teams listed have a realistic shot at pool C.
Teams in red must have at least 3 losses to be pool C. (Either have 3 losses already like Mary Hardin-Baylor or must pick up a 3rd loss to not be pool A like Chris Newport)
Teams in grey must have at least 2 losses to be pool C. (Either have 2 losses already including a conference loss like UW-Oshkosh or must pick up a 2nd loss to not be pool A like UW-La Crosse)
Teams in white could be pool C with just 1 loss. (Either have 1 loss which is in conference like UW-Whitewater or is undefeated like UW-River Falls)
An asterisk next to a team means a non-D3 loss which isn't being counted towards the loss limits.
(https://i.imgur.com/9t4OfH0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/mgSJeSP.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fWq39C1.png)
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 08, 2023, 07:40:30 PM
Remember that this is for Pool C purposes. Teams eliminated here can still make the playoffs via pool A. Not all teams listed have a realistic shot at pool C.
Teams in red must have at least 3 losses to be pool C. (Either have 3 losses already like Mary Hardin-Baylor or must pick up a 3rd loss to not be pool A like Chris Newport)
Teams in grey must have at least 2 losses to be pool C. (Either have 2 losses already including a conference loss like UW-Oshkosh or must pick up a 2nd loss to not be pool A like UW-La Crosse)
Teams in white could be pool C with just 1 loss. (Either have 1 loss which is in conference like UW-Whitewater or is undefeated like UW-River Falls)
An asterisk next to a team means a non-D3 loss which isn't being counted towards the loss limits.
(https://i.imgur.com/9t4OfH0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/mgSJeSP.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/fWq39C1.png)
I don't think Sul Ross is eligible as they're transitioning to D2. I've seen mention that their games don't even count as conference games this year.
Looking way ahead and with only 4 at-large bids. UWW vs. UW-RF will be a key game (well duh), if UW-RF wins and continues to win out, I believe that could possibly knock out a UW-W. Obviously, UW-La Crosse control its own destiny, but a loss to UW-RF in Week 10 may or may not put them on the outside looking in, but if Hardin-Simmons can get healthy and get back to its level and finally get over the UMHB hump, would prove worthy for UW-L. Now, in the ASC, UMHB needs to run the table to get into playoff, a loss to HSU, I would say officially eliminate them and possibly can remove a RR win for UW-W, thus possibly lowering their Pool C. Now over in SAA land, it appears that Trinity is on its away in securing it's automatic bid. Berry needs a lot of chaos in WIAC, CC, and LL land and it needs Huntingdon to appear in the R3 rankings. Berry making the field gives USAC leader Belhaven a fair matchup if UMHB doesn't run the table as mentioned in this morning podcast that Belhaven is within 500 miles of UMHB, but not Trinity. Moving along to LL, Ithaca beating RPI avoids the typical LL conundrum that we find ourselves seeing, but could certainly find its way by season end, nevertheless, this week as Ithaca and Union face-off, a loss by Ithaca, doesn't necessary knock them out of Pool C contention, but makes it very difficult when committee decide between other potential 1 loss teams from the likes of the WIAC, CCIW, SAA, and possibly the OAC. Then there CC land, Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins appear to be on a collision course for their Oct 28th meeting, but Hopkins still has to face current 1 loss teams in Dickinson, F&M, and Ursinus. The Mules have yet to face Dickson and F&M. I think the CC moving from 10 conference opponents to 8, definitely could help with its SOS much more than in the past, when it was always hovering around the .500 mark. Lastly, in my projected bracket, I have Wheaton as the best Pool C candidate with them having played UW-O and getting the WIAC bump in SOS as oppose to both a not so much bump that WASHU and Augustana OOC games against Hendrix and Simpson, respectively.
Overall, my initial Pool C candidates are Muhlenberg, Wheaton, Berry, and UW-L. First 4 out: Union, UW-W, W&J, and Brockport
The ASC only gets 1 bid this year. The UMHB at HSU game on 10/28 is "winner takes all".
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 08, 2023, 03:31:26 PM
We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.
OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.
ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28
SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.
WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.
MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.
CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.
ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)
QuoteFrom the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.
LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?
E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport and Ithaca.
MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.
Who else is on the radar? This is fun!
(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)
Ralph , You could add NWC. Linfield / Whit worth ? Nov game. ;D
Yes!
Week #11, 11/11/2023. Whitworth at Linfield. My concern is that the 9-game schedules and the less than spectacular SOS's really hinder the chances of an 8-1 loser.
I think that an 8-1 NWC runner-up muddies the water for those 2-loss teams.
Trinity would be a Pool A even with two losses since it holds the H2H against Berry.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 09, 2023, 01:25:53 PM
Trinity would be a Pool A even with two losses since it holds the H2H against Berry.
But if Sewanee or Hendrix runs the table, including upsetting Trinity, then they could be a 2 loss pool C. Extremely unlikely but is still possible for now.
with only four spots, I can't wait for this thread to jump off with the predictive regional rankings and playoff scenarios. D3FB is the best
I'm not looking forward to the bellyaching about the 'unworthy' A's.
I think this season's weirdness more than anything shows that you can win your league.
Well now that UW-L has defeated UWW and UWW has defeated UWRF, I think it is more likely that all three make it in the playoffs.
It's a crazy world out there. If UWRF beat LAX and all three win all the rest of their games, there would be a 3 way tie atop the WIAC. Regardless of who the 'A' is #2 and #3 are stuck. If UMHB wins out and wins the 'A' in ASC then Hardin Simmons has 2nd loss and is probably removed from contention. If may affect LAX's chances of getting in. If Hardin Simmons wins out it may affect UWW and and UWRF chances of getting in...
I like Wheaton, Berry to win out the year and be easy selections. I think JHU beats Muhlenberg, but they get in anyway and last in is the winner of LAX/UWRF and first out is the loser if that game. My outlier here is Coe/Central. I think either one of them has a shot but not sure who.
So in the end... as of today... and barring any unexpected outcomes... I like Wheaton, Berry, UWW, and .....Muhlenberg
This means Hopkins beats the Mules, but the Mules squeak in...UW LAX beats UWRF and they get to the table, but not enough pool c's left
Others left at the table UWRF, Coe, John Carroll, Hardin Simmons, RPI, Kings
A lot has happened since I last posted the eliminator (both in D3 and to me). Let's see where we stand with 3 weeks left. Teams with a gold border are currently leading or tied for their conference lead.
(https://i.imgur.com/fRZWaI7.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/pQqaChU.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/VJpGMYM.png)
Things are fairly straightforward in the first four regions.
If Central beats Wartburg we could have a pair of 1 loss pool C teams in the ARC. Same thing in the CCIW should Augustana beat North Central in week 11.
Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.
Quote from: Inkblot on October 24, 2023, 03:06:39 PM
Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.
St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 24, 2023, 07:06:21 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on October 24, 2023, 03:06:39 PM
Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.
St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.
Gustavus Adolphus is 2-0 in division.
Quote from: Inkblot on October 24, 2023, 07:13:49 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 24, 2023, 07:06:21 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on October 24, 2023, 03:06:39 PM
Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.
St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.
Gustavus Adolphus is 2-0 in division.
Well the MIAC is dumb :P I don't know of another conference that says conference games don't count just because it's the other division.
I'll make the adjustments for next week
As a fan of a (probably longshot) Pool C hopeful, a fun idea that's been rolling around my head is "if you're a fan of a Pool C hopeful, what games should you be following and who should you be rooting for?"
This week, a few games to keep an eye on are:
UMHB vs Hardin-Simmons: I think the outcome you should be rooting for here is Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB.
Hypothetical UMHB Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 6-4, 0-4 vs. RRO's
Hypothetical HSU Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 8-2, 1-2 (?) vs. RRO's
I can't imagine anybody is putting a four-loss UMHB team in the playoffs via Pool C (monster SoS and four "results" against RRO's aside...it would be four losses, two of them not especially close). If UMHB wins, I think 8-2 HSU would be a strong candidate in Pool C because they'll have decent SoS, a likely 1-2 record vs RRO's and potentially one of the best wins anyone in the entire country will have (a road win vs. UW-La Crosse, potential WIAC champion). If we see any 8-2's going in via Pool C, I think HSU is a strong candidate. So if you're a fan of a potential Pool C team, I think you want HSU to beat UMHB, take the Pool A bid and likely eliminate the possibility of a Pool C team out of the ASC.
Johns Hopkins vs Muhlenberg: I think here you want to see Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg.
Hypothetical Johns Hopkins Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 9-1, 1-1 (or maybe 2-1) vs. RRO's
Hypothetical Muhlenberg Pool C resume: 9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO's
Both unbeaten, Hopkins has a strong OOC result with a win over likely LL champ Ithaca and NJAC contender Christopher Newport. I suspect JHU will finish with higher SoS and potentially could have 2 wins vs. regionally ranked opponents if CNU runs the table (I am guessing that Ithaca still finishes the year in RR's even if they lose to Cortland in the season ender). A possible 9-1 JHU with an RRO or two would be stronger candidate than 9-1 Muhlenberg, who I think is less likely to score any regionally ranked wins (I mean...maybe if Moravian shocks Susquehanna and runs the table to win the Landmark). I think it's always dicey to hope for a Pool C if you're 9-1, 0-1 with middling SoS. So here, I think you want JHU (the stronger of the hypothetical Pool C candidates) to win, take the Pool A and knock the relatively weaker Pool C candidate in Muhlenberg into Pool C.
Those are the two biggest ones that caught my attention. A few others worth brief mention:
Endicott vs Husson: don't laugh! The reasoning here is that Endicott would actually have a decent Pool C resume if they lost this game (8-2, but possibly 1-2 or 1-1 vs RRO's) and Husson (who is 5-2, albeit not against a particularly impressive schedule) went on the claim the CCC's Pool A bid. Would "close loss vs. 9-1 Ithaca, big win vs. 8-2 Hardin-Simmons" be enough to sneak in even if they had a loss to Husson? I don't know, but I think you'd rather see Endicott win and seal up the CCC so they're not part of the Pool C equation. Anybody with a couple RRO results and a win is a possible Pool C candidate. Root for Endicott to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.
Moravian vs Susquehanna: also a bit of a weird one for this list, but similar profile to the game above. Moravian is still unbeaten in the Landmark and could take the conference if they win out, leaving 9-1 Susquehanna in Pool C. Root for Susquehanna to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.
Delaware Valley vs Stevenson: both teams currently 6-1. Winner probably takes the conference. Loser has a chance to finish 8-2. I don't think either actually has a very strong Pool C resume to be honest so this probably doesn't matter.
Might be a few others, but I'm just calling out a few games where either a) a likely conference favorite is in a game against one of the few remaining teams that could overtake them for their Pool A bid, potentially knocking one of these teams into the Pool C mix or b) a conference title is (more or less) on the line and the loser is likely going into the Pool C mix.
Good stuff!
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 26, 2023, 07:24:05 PM
As a fan of a (probably longshot) Pool C hopeful, a fun idea that's been rolling around my head is "if you're a fan of a Pool C hopeful, what games should you be following and who should you be rooting for?"
This week, a few games to keep an eye on are:
UMHB vs Hardin-Simmons: I think the outcome you should be rooting for here is Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB.
Hypothetical UMHB Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 6-4, 0-4 vs. RRO's
Hypothetical HSU Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 8-2, 1-2 (?) vs. RRO's
I can't imagine anybody is putting a four-loss UMHB team in the playoffs via Pool C (monster SoS and four "results" against RRO's aside...it would be four losses, two of them not especially close). If UMHB wins, I think 8-2 HSU would be a strong candidate in Pool C because they'll have decent SoS, a likely 1-2 record vs RRO's and potentially one of the best wins anyone in the entire country will have (a road win vs. UW-La Crosse, potential WIAC champion). If we see any 8-2's going in via Pool C, I think HSU is a strong candidate. So if you're a fan of a potential Pool C team, I think you want HSU to beat UMHB, take the Pool A bid and likely eliminate the possibility of a Pool C team out of the ASC.
Johns Hopkins vs Muhlenberg: I think here you want to see Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg.
Hypothetical Johns Hopkins Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 9-1, 1-1 (or maybe 2-1) vs. RRO's
Hypothetical Muhlenberg Pool C resume: 9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO's
Both unbeaten, Hopkins has a strong OOC result with a win over likely LL champ Ithaca and NJAC contender Christopher Newport. I suspect JHU will finish with higher SoS and potentially could have 2 wins vs. regionally ranked opponents if CNU runs the table (I am guessing that Ithaca still finishes the year in RR's even if they lose to Cortland in the season ender). A possible 9-1 JHU with an RRO or two would be stronger candidate than 9-1 Muhlenberg, who I think is less likely to score any regionally ranked wins (I mean...maybe if Moravian shocks Susquehanna and runs the table to win the Landmark). I think it's always dicey to hope for a Pool C if you're 9-1, 0-1 with middling SoS. So here, I think you want JHU (the stronger of the hypothetical Pool C candidates) to win, take the Pool A and knock the relatively weaker Pool C candidate in Muhlenberg into Pool C.
Those are the two biggest ones that caught my attention. A few others worth brief mention:
Endicott vs Husson: don't laugh! The reasoning here is that Endicott would actually have a decent Pool C resume if they lost this game (8-2, but possibly 1-2 or 1-1 vs RRO's) and Husson (who is 5-2, albeit not against a particularly impressive schedule) went on the claim the CCC's Pool A bid. Would "close loss vs. 9-1 Ithaca, big win vs. 8-2 Hardin-Simmons" be enough to sneak in even if they had a loss to Husson? I don't know, but I think you'd rather see Endicott win and seal up the CCC so they're not part of the Pool C equation. Anybody with a couple RRO results and a win is a possible Pool C candidate. Root for Endicott to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.
Moravian vs Susquehanna: also a bit of a weird one for this list, but similar profile to the game above. Moravian is still unbeaten in the Landmark and could take the conference if they win out, leaving 9-1 Susquehanna in Pool C. Root for Susquehanna to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.
Delaware Valley vs Stevenson: both teams currently 6-1. Winner probably takes the conference. Loser has a chance to finish 8-2. I don't think either actually has a very strong Pool C resume to be honest so this probably doesn't matter.
Might be a few others, but I'm just calling out a few games where either a) a likely conference favorite is in a game against one of the few remaining teams that could overtake them for their Pool A bid, potentially knocking one of these teams into the Pool C mix or b) a conference title is (more or less) on the line and the loser is likely going into the Pool C mix.
Ah the Pool C hopeful fandom life, I know it well.... The 40 team playoff cannot come soon enough.
I actually disagree on that - to be honest I would be fine with a playoff that was literally ONLY the conference champions! But since this is what we got, I'll have fun with it. Just a few Pool C slots is probably ideal - your playoff dreams aren't totally over with a loss but now you get to white knuckle it and suddenly care about games far from your home because of the possible ripple effects.
John Carroll will be making an appearance in this space if I keep doing a weekly roundup of the big Pool C-impacting matchups.
There are basically two categories:
1. Games where an undefeated team who's likely to take their Pool A bid could possibly lose to someone that would take it instead. Here you always want the favorite to win - the fewer 9-1 Pool C teams the better...
2. Games where a team that's already in the Pool C mix with a loss or two could take another. Here you always want them to lose. Get all those 9-1's down to 8-2 and those 8-2's down to 7-3!
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:50:15 PM
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
Might depend on the two rivalry games in upstate NY. It'd help Mount a lot if Union lost to RPI, or even if they won, if IC loses to Cortland
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:50:15 PM
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
Recency bias.. The committee will never keep Mount out, in my opinion.
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:50:15 PM
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
I tend to agree with Streaks. But at the same time, on the podcast today Greg listed Mount with a bunch of teams that all look the same per criterion. And I'm hearing the current National Chair is a stickler for strict adherence to the criterion.
But still, no Mount with one loss? That would feel like a shock to the system. The Chari did say their goal was to make it the best tournament possible, so that would not be consistent with Mount on the sidelines.
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 30, 2023, 04:09:37 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:50:15 PM
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
I tend to agree with Streaks. But at the same time, on the podcast today Greg listed Mount with a bunch of teams that all look the same per criterion. And I'm hearing the current National Chair is a stickler for strict adherence to the criterion.
But still, no Mount with one loss? That would feel like a shock to the system. The Chari did say their goal was to make it the best tournament possible, so that would not be consistent with Mount on the sidelines.
that's all you needed to say.
btw, I can never keep it straight. Is it "once ranked always ranked" in terms of RRO? or what week does that count?
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 30, 2023, 04:02:27 PM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on October 30, 2023, 12:50:15 PM
If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?
Recency bias.. The committee will never keep Mount out, in my opinion.
I agree, it's not going to happen. A team like Union would probably be on the outside looking in...See final regional rankings 2016 https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/final-regional-ranking
I'm also in agreement that a 9-1 Mount Union has a 100% chance of making the field, despite the fact that their 2023 on-paper blinded resume will look approximately equal to just about every other 9-1 league runnerup who didn't play a major OOC game (Muhlenberg, Carnegie Mellon, and the like).
Anyways, I'm still gonna mention the Mount-JCU game when I do this week's roundup of games with Pool C leverage and who you should root for in the other games if you're a fan of a potential Pool C hopeful...
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 31, 2023, 12:37:41 PM
I'm also in agreement that a 9-1 Mount Union has a 100% chance of making the field, despite the fact that their 2023 on-paper blinded resume will look approximately equal to just about every other 9-1 league runnerup who didn't play a major OOC game (Muhlenberg, Carnegie Mellon, and the like).
Anyways, I'm still gonna mention the Mount-JCU game when I do this week's roundup of games with Pool C leverage and who you should root for in the other games if you're a fan of a potential Pool C hopeful...
John Carroll.. The answer is John Carroll.
Anyone know why the NCAA started doing regional rankings for D2 last week, and D3 will only begin next week? I presume there is a difference in how the D2 bracket/pairings work vs D3, but I'm curious why it matters to the point they begin doing regional rankings for D2 three weeks before they begin doing D3.
Quote from: tigerguy on October 31, 2023, 12:57:08 PM
Anyone know why the NCAA started doing regional rankings for D2 last week, and D3 will only begin next week? I presume there is a difference in how the D2 bracket/pairings work vs D3, but I'm curious why it matters to the point they begin doing regional rankings for D2 three weeks before they begin doing D3.
I do not believe that D2 conferences have automatic qualifiers.
I think I have everything correct but it's always possible I'm wrong.
Teams with a gold outline currently lead/tied for lead.
(https://i.imgur.com/C5aTaSQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/WNBb4fl.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/UddjI8J.png)
I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 02, 2023, 02:55:16 PM
I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.
Not if La Crosse loses out and it ends up as a two-way tie.
Quote from: Inkblot on November 02, 2023, 05:44:50 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 02, 2023, 02:55:16 PM
I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.
Not if La Crosse loses out and it ends up as a two-way tie.
Oh that's right. They are slotted correctly. The same part of my brain that wouldn't let me believe in the Tooth Fairy, wouldn't let me believe Stevens Point could beat La Crosse. But you are right, for the purposes of this exercise, they are absolutely listed correctly. My mistake. Carry on.
I believe everything is correct but as always corrections are welcome.
(https://i.imgur.com/04O17IF.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/FN7mXpw.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/li3X9a0.png)
Washington U should be red, they (barely) picked up their third loss on Saturday.
Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans). Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen. There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.
The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ. So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose. RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.
In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win. So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset. If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C. You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.
One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming. Why? Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C. With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened. So you want to root for Susquehanna.
TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna). Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2023, 01:10:50 PM
Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans). Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen. There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.
The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ. So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose. RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.
In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win. So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset. If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C. You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.
One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming. Why? Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C. With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened. So you want to root for Susquehanna.
TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna). Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.
I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in,
55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.
Quote from: IC798891 on November 06, 2023, 02:49:14 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2023, 01:10:50 PM
Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans). Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen. There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.
The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ. So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose. RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.
In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win. So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset. If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C. You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.
One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming. Why? Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C. With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened. So you want to root for Susquehanna.
TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna). Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.
I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in, 55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.
Honestly, similar story in the CCIW given Augie lost by 7 to a Wheaton team NCC beat by 19 (and if you want to go a layer deeper, Augie beat WashU by 18; NCC won by 46). I'm not looking past this week, but I'm pretty confident in the chalk.
Quote from: lmitzel on November 06, 2023, 05:07:26 PM
Quote from: IC798891 on November 06, 2023, 02:49:14 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2023, 01:10:50 PM
Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans). Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen. There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.
The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ. So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose. RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.
In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win. So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset. If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C. You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.
One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming. Why? Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C. With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened. So you want to root for Susquehanna.
TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna). Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.
I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in, 55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.
Honestly, similar story in the CCIW given Augie lost by 7 to a Wheaton team NCC beat by 19 (and if you want to go a layer deeper, Augie beat WashU by 18; NCC won by 46). I'm not looking past this week, but I'm pretty confident in the chalk.
Famous last words. Comparitive scores....a very dangerous game.
FWIW, I agree that NCC and Susquehanna are overwhelming favorites to win, but guys, the point of the exercise is to ID the games that matter this week and what different results mean.
Logan made this all very concise on Twitter:
https://x.com/loghanratings/status/1721577557491912974?s=46&t=vqSgX_T0AGAPfUWEdoeq9A
After listening to the interview with the playoff committee chair, it seems like he is committed to sticking to the strict interpretation of the criteria when selecting the playoff field. That being said, wouldn't it make sense to have blind selections for Pool C.
It seems like you would have the best overall field as well as be able to say that they arent playing favorites or selecting a team based on previous seasons, if when the 6 teams were up for pool C consideration, there were no team names assigned, just W/L, SOS and RvRRO.
Does this happen now and if not, what does everyone think about doing it that way in the future?
As a reference down the stretch, the RAC are made up this year as follows (the groups that pick who is regionally ranked and, starting today, what order they are in). The chair of each RAC makes up the national committee:
Region I:
John Davis (Chair) Misericordia University
Dino Pollock, Western NE
Scott Lynn, Alfred State College
Carey Eggen, Framingham State
Brian Bubna, MIT
Ed Hottle, Stevenson Univeristy
Region II:
Blaise Faggiano (Chair), Utica
Curt Fitzpatrick, Morrisville State
Devin DeWall, Hobart
Amanda DeMartino, TCNJ
Brad Fordyce, Dickinson
Geno Demarco, Geneva
Region III:
Hunter Sims (Chair), Howard Payne
Ryan Erwin, ETBU
Scott Yoder, Shenandoah
Jerheme Urban, Trinity Univ
Mike Gutelius, Catholic
Region IV:
John Snell (Chair), Baldwin Wallace
Matthew Theobald, Hanover
Jason Couch, Alma
Justin Newell, Kenyon
Scott Donaldson, Heidelberg
Region V:
Jason Imperati (Chair), Lawrence University
Jeff McMartin, Central College
Jesse Scott, Wheaton
Ben Cooprider, Grinnell
Jim Hamad, Aurora
Region VI:
Matt Moore (National Chair), Univ of NW-St Paul
Gary Fasching, St Johns
Keith Buckley, Pacific
Chris Krich, LaVerne
Robbie Schomaker, Greenville
Jace Rindahl, UWW
Quote from: USee on November 08, 2023, 08:38:06 AM
As a reference down the stretch, the RAC are made up this year as follows (the groups that pick who is regionally ranked and, starting today, what order they are in). The chair of each RAC makes up the national committee:
Region I:
John Davis (Chair) Misericordia University
Dino Pollock, Western NE
Scott Lynn, Alfred State College
Carey Eggen, Framingham State
Brian Bubna, MIT
Ed Hottle, Stevenson Univeristy
Region II:
Blaise Faggiano (Chair), Utica
Curt Fitzpatrick, Morrisville State
Devin DeWall, Hobart
Amanda DeMartino, TCNJ
Brad Fordyce, Dickinson
Geno Demarco, Geneva
Region III:
Hunter Sims (Chair), Howard Payne
Ryan Erwin, ETBU
Scott Yoder, Shenandoah
Jerheme Urban, Trinity Univ
Mike Gutelius, Catholic
Region IV:
John Snell (Chair), Baldwin Wallace
Matthew Theobald, Hanover
Jason Couch, Alma
Justin Newell, Kenyon
Scott Donaldson, Heidelberg
Region V:
Jason Imperati (Chair), Lawrence University
Jeff McMartin, Central College
Jesse Scott, Wheaton
Ben Cooprider, Grinnell
Jim Hamad, Aurora
Region VI:
Matt Moore (National Chair), Univ of NW-St Paul
Gary Fasching, St Johns
Keith Buckley, Pacific
Chris Krich, LaVerne
Robbie Schomaker, Greenville
Jace Rindahl, UWW
What the heck??? Catholic is in the Landmark, that's Region 2?? I've not seen that before.
Quote from: MediaGuy on November 07, 2023, 10:14:26 PM
After listening to the interview with the playoff committee chair, it seems like he is committed to sticking to the strict interpretation of the criteria when selecting the playoff field. That being said, wouldn't it make sense to have blind selections for Pool C.
It seems like you would have the best overall field as well as be able to say that they arent playing favorites or selecting a team based on previous seasons, if when the 6 teams were up for pool C consideration, there were no team names assigned, just W/L, SOS and RvRRO.
Does this happen now and if not, what does everyone think about doing it that way in the future?
It's not quite that simple. I almost missed it and wondered if they'd taken it out, but there is a little nugget in the selection criteria after all the primary and secondary ones that are listed.
QuoteWhen all criteria are equal among teams with undefeated records in the primary criteria, the NCAA Division III Football
Committee can use a team's performance in the previous championship season as a criterion.
-Championship handbook (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2023-24D3MFB_PreChampionshipManual.pdf)
I kinda doubt we'd get to that point but it is something to keep in mind.
Second set of regional rankings dropped (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings).
Wartburg top ranked in Region 5 with no games left! Bolstered by Coe's ranking.
Surprised Del Val is ahead of Endicott with a worse SOS.
I wonder if Ithaca will have the record SOS after the Cortaga Jug?
The only Pool C option out of Region 3 is Berry. Without going through all the other conferences and teams and rankings, who else is Pool C favorites???
But the way, Berry should get a Pool C and probably host Belhaven. Trinity should host Hardin Simmons. Those are my votes, for what that's worth.
Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 08, 2023, 03:03:14 PM
The only Pool C option out of Region 3 is Berry. Without going through all the other conferences and teams and rankings, who else is Pool C favorites???
But the way, Berry should get a Pool C and probably host Belhaven. Trinity should host Hardin Simmons. Those are my votes, for what that's worth.
Berry's very poor SOS and lack of regional results make them a very difficult pick, especially if the region 2 RAC pulls their collective heads out of their asses and next week elevates Union (which has a win vs RRO) over Muhlenberg (which does not and has almost the exact same SoS). A 9-1 Union will get picked before a 9-1 Berry but they have to come to the table. UW-W, Wheaton, St. John's are likely earlier picks.
Quote from: MediaGuy on November 07, 2023, 10:14:26 PM
After listening to the interview with the playoff committee chair, it seems like he is committed to sticking to the strict interpretation of the criteria when selecting the playoff field. That being said, wouldn't it make sense to have blind selections for Pool C.
It seems like you would have the best overall field as well as be able to say that they arent playing favorites or selecting a team based on previous seasons, if when the 6 teams were up for pool C consideration, there were no team names assigned, just W/L, SOS and RvRRO.
Does this happen now and if not, what does everyone think about doing it that way in the future?
I think this would be just about impossible to implement for a couple reasons.
The only way to do it without giving away who the teams are is just showing the W/L, SOS, and RvRRO. But the RvRRO has to be just a record and not include scores or even who the "RRO" are, otherwise it would be unmasking as to who the team(s) are. And I find that problematic because not all "W" and "L" vs. RRO are equal. If John Carroll is on the board, for example, there's a difference between them losing 49-14 to Mount Union vs. if they had lost 31-28. Depending on who else was on the table I might be going to bat for an 8-2 team with a 27-23 and 31-28 loss against teams ranked first and second in their respective regions. But without the scores / rankings of the opponents - if I'm just told "8-2, .550 SoS, 0-2 vs RRO" then I don't know if that "0-2" is "two close ones against two teams at the top of their respective regions" or two blowout losses or one close and one blowout nor do I know how highly those teams are ranked. I think it matters to think not just of "record" vs RRO but "results" vs RRO and that means you need to know who they were and what the score was.
My 2 cents, anyway.
NCAA just updated Region 2 and now Union is ranked above Susquehanna.
https://twitter.com/FrankRossi/status/1722630039739719721
UW-Whitewater 42 vs Bethel 14
Union 24 @ Delaware Valley 16
Wheaton 41 vs Mount St Joseph 34
Coe 7 @ Aurora 20
3-1 for the Pool C teams in round 1
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2023, 06:22:17 PM
UW-Whitewater 42 vs Bethel 14
Union 24 @ Delaware Valley 16
Wheaton 41 vs Mount St Joseph 34
Coe 7 @ Aurora 20
3-1 for the Pool C teams in round 1
Would SJU have beaten Aurora?
Is there somewhere to watch the replay of the bracket blitz? Teams already removed videos or have restrictions on replay (although I though that was not allowed, since it was a NCAA sponsored event). Not like teams are sign stealing :D
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 18, 2023, 09:00:06 PM
Is there somewhere to watch the replay of the bracket blitz? Teams already removed videos or have restrictions on replay (although I though that was not allowed, since it was a NCAA sponsored event). Not like teams are sign stealing :D
https://www.d3football.com/videolink/bracket-blitz-2023
Wheaton 42 @ UW-Whitewater 49
Union 17 @ Johns Hopkins 39
1-2 for Pool C in round 2
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2023, 06:22:17 PM
UW-Whitewater 42 vs Bethel 14
Union 24 @ Delaware Valley 16
Wheaton 41 vs Mount St Joseph 34
Coe 7 @ Aurora 20
3-1 for the Pool C teams in round 1