First NPI is out (games through 9/28) so this is silly season for projections, but it's still fun:
Last four at-large in: Muhlenberg, Middlebury, Catholic, Southwestern (TX)
Last four at-large out: Buffalo St., Bowdoin, Conn College, SUNY Oneonta.
multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 6
UAA - 4
ODAC - 3
Liberty League - 3
MIAC - 3
NJAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
Centennial - 2
Landmark - 2
Also, my assumption is we have 21 at-large bids again this year, I haven't tracked any changes in conference auto-bids from last year that could move that number up or down. If someone else knows about those changes, please post, thanks.
4:16 PM ET update-- The aforementioned NPI Summary Report which had been published earlier today was embargoed this afternoon and taken off the NCAA Statistics website. It is unclear at this time whether or not the report will be republished this week, or whether or not we will have to wait until after games from October 5 have been played for a new report to come out. Sorry about that.
Quote from: kansas hokie on September 29, 2025, 02:15:12 PMFirst NPI is out (games through 9/28) so this is silly season for projections, but it's still fun:
Last four at-large in: Muhlenberg, Middlebury, Catholic, Southwestern (TX)
Last four at-large out: Buffalo St., Bowdoin, Conn College, SUNY Oneonta.
multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 6
UAA - 4
ODAC - 3
Liberty League - 3
MIAC - 3
NJAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
Centennial - 2
Landmark - 2
10-5 NPI is out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/45910
Last four at-large in: Ithaca, SUNY Oneonta, Catholic, Conn College
First four at-large out: Skidmore, Bridgewater, Colby, Washington & Lee
multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
ODAC - 3
Liberty League - 3
MIAC - 3
SAA - 3
SUNYAC - 2
Landmark - 2
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 06, 2025, 11:24:53 AM10-5 NPI is out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/45910
Last four at-large in: Ithaca, SUNY Oneonta, Catholic, Conn College
First four at-large out: Skidmore, Bridgewater, Colby, Washington & Lee
multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
ODAC - 3
Liberty League - 3
MIAC - 3
SAA - 3
SUNYAC - 2
Landmark - 2
A nit but the NJAC would also have 2. And I checked online for the list of this year's conference AQ's. I could only find last year's list...
Thank you for catching that, I missed that.
This means that Conn College would drop down to "first four out" and be the bubble team. Cutoff line is 41 right now for at-large. Still assuming 21 at-large bids available.
21 at-large bids is confirmed. It's documented in the NCAA pre-championships manual along with lots of great info on the selection process.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/common/2025-26D3XSO_PreChampsManual.pdf
I took a quick look at the top 54 in the Oct. 5th NPI to see which schools had losses (or half-losses/ties) since Oct. 5 to teams outside the Top 54. I don't mention losses/ties against other top 54 teams unless it is their second non-win of the week.
Doesn't mean any of these schools are necessarily going to drop (or drop significantly) because of these results, especially since they could be offset by wins (including the half-win of a tie), or could be droppable if the team already has 10 NPI wins, but these are teams to watch out for in terms of drops. Any non-win (or non full-win) at this stage of the season is a chance for other teams that won a full game, especially against a team where they receive an NPI bump, to pass a school in the rankings.
4. Wheaton (MA) (tied #125 Endicott 1-1)
5. Cortland (tied #57 Buffalo State 1-1)
13. Virginia Wesleyan (lost 0-1 to #91 Randolph Macon and lost 0-1 to #14 Lynchburg)
16. Denison (tied #68 Wooster 1-1)
17. Hampden-Sydney (tied #166 Shenandoah 1-1)
20. Dickinson (tied #74 Haverford 1-1)
21. Gustavus-Adolphus (tied #67 Carleton 1-1)
28. Vassar (lost 0-1 to #156 Union)
29. Pfeiffer (tied #173 William Peace 1-1)
32. Calvin (tied 1-1 to #159 Hope)
34. Rowan (tied 1-1 to #316 Alvernia and 1-1 to #90 William Paterson)
36. New Paltz (tied 1-1 to #226 Oswego State)
37. Ithaca (lost 2-3 to #19 Hobart and 1-2 to #181 RPI)
38. Oneonta (lost 1-2 to #82 Plattsburgh State)
44. Bridgewater (tied 2-2 to #205 Averett)
54. Rutgers-Camden (lost 0-2 to #48 Muhlenberg and 1-4 to #58 Stockton)
10/12 NPI is out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46118?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit
Last four at-large in: Buffalo St., Middlebury, Carnegie Mellon, Hamilton
First four at-large out: Vassar, Washington & Lee, Sewanee, Wooster
multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 9 (all but Colby and Trinity)
UAA - 5
ODAC - 3
MIAC - 3
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
Newmac - 2
Landmark - 2
I think the NESCAC might have broken this system. They really are about to have an NCAA tourney team that misses the conference tournament.
It was designed that way from the start ;). Working as intended
Goal is best teams regardless of conference. I don't know the math enough but what tweaks need to be made to the formula? Was it SOS vs W/L% ?
So, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.
You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.
Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.
If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.
Scranton and Catholic please and thank you.
Scranton (9-0-3, 55.905 today #24)
worst case (5 losses) - 49.22 (#212 today)
best case (5 wins) - 57.58 (#10 today)
Catholic (7-0-5, 54.995 NPI #36)
worst case - 51.58 (#129 today)
best case - 56.247 (#16 today)
All of this is not counting 2-3 games in conference tourney, think one likely wins auto-bid and the other ends up squarely on the bubble. I think both need to win the games they are supposed to win and make conference final for a chance at 2 bids for Landmark.
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 13, 2025, 05:48:37 PMSo, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.
You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.
Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.
If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.
Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor. Could you calculate differences of winning out remaining conference schedule + differences of a W, L or D vs. Trinity?
Rowan, Montclair and WP please. Curious about the NJAC
I will do MHB, Rowan, Montclair, and WP after new NPI is out on Monday, it will mean more after this weekend's games.
For MHB...they are the strong, strong favorite to win ASC auto-bid. If they win out in the regular season (including Trinity) then lose in conference final to E TX baptist (best case), they would likely be just outside the bubble for an at-large bid as it looks now. If they don't beat Trinity, it's auto-bid or nothing.
For NJAC, Montclair looks like they could lose conference tourney and still get in, Rowan may need to win conference tourney, an WP definitely has to win conference tourney to make NCAA.
I'll do the data scenarios after new NPI on Monday.
New NPI out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46277?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit
Expanding the bar to include 8...last 8 in:
Catholic (30; 55.657)
Wash & Lee
Macalester
Bridgewater
Buffalo St.
Vassar
Plattsburgh St.
Babson (43; 54.851)
Last 8 out:
Bates (44; 54.84)
Carnegie Mellon
Rowan
Skidmore
Haverford
Middlebury
UW-Stevens Point
Ohio Northern (52; 54.684)
You will see that the difference in who is "last ones out" is miniscule (.18 NPI points). Basically, this list are all teams that need to win at this point, especially if they have a conference tournament that will give them a loss (and need an at-large).
NPI number for an at-large bid will likely be right around 55 in the end.
Wanted to offer some comparative data from 2024 that explains the numbers today
In 2024, the lowest non-AQ was Buffalo State at 33. There were 12 AQs in the top 33, with 21 non-AQ teams getting in the tournament.
As of 10/19/25, there are 16 different conferences with teams in the top 33. So, if every one of those 16 conferences continued to have an AQ in the top 33, then the non-AQ teams would go down to #37 (assuming we have the same number of conference AQs this year).
Of course, there will likely be changes between now and the final NPI before selection (which is the only one that matters) that will change the number of conferences with teams in the top 33. It will likely go down, but there are also 4 conferences with teams ranked 34-37 that could jump up into the top 33 with good results the rest of the season and in their conference tournaments, so it could go up too, which would push the minimum ranking number higher. Just wanted to offer this perspective though.
It's a valuable perspective for sure. What I experienced last year was a group of upsets in conference tournaments that moved the cut-line up to 33 from near 40 as the last weekend started. So, while we can easily find who would be in/out right now that's based on no upsets from 1 bid conferences.
Here's the current conference multi-bid breakdown:
NESCAC - 6 (down from 9 last NPI)
ODAC - 5
UAA - 4
MIAC - 4
Liberty League - 3
SUNYAC - 3
Landmark - 2
NCAC - 2
NJAC - 2
SAA - 2
I confirmed there's 21 at-large bids.
Also messed up in my last post by double counting NCAC so move the cutline up one. Babson is now out as of today.
Astounding where some teams are ranked by NPI after playing an extremely weak schedule. A lot to still be sorted out of course but curious to see how this will play out once the bracket comes out.
Yes, it's a mix each year. Those with weak schedules have no margin for error, they have to win and win a lot. That's where the 10 win threshold helps drop those really weak wins and some teams with harder schedules don't get that benefit. Still, there's teams with multiple losses and/or ties that are still in the mix for at-large due to harder schedules.
In the past system, the selection committee balanced the same level of teams and schedule mix and picked. Now, it's a mathematical algorithm that we get to see each week. Pros/cons to each way.
Well spotted NPI index @kansas hokie. And you can dump it into a spreadsheet!
The NPI win and loss values as well as the quality win bonus amounts are dynamic. So when a team like Macalester jumps 20 places week over week mostly due to its victory at Wartburg, it affects all of Macalaster's previous opponents. Like #2 Augsberg who tied Bethel this week but had a little overall NPI change mostly due to a 1.5 point week over week increase in its earlier win vs. Macalaster.
At this point in the season maybe you could assume little or no volatility. But as you point out the margin for in or out is tiny. Either way you are brave for listing only 6 based on the NESCAC Protection Index.
NESCAC Protection Index...ha ha, that's a good one. I'd definitely plan for more than 6 NESCAC bids in the end.
The data is easy to dump into a spreadsheet each week and I don't worry as much about the components and focus on net NPI (click on the ranking number for each team and it's there, you can easily export each team's data that way too).
Still some decent volatility out there as some teams cross the 10 win threshold and drop low level wins. This will impact the bubble much more than the top teams.
Look south for NPI moves this week. Chicago and Wash U both play Rochester and Emory. Lots of large win values available for those teams and each have two games. Tufts (#1) has a non-conference game against Emerson where a win won't do much to help their NPI. Wash U and Emory could both be next week's #1 with two wins this weekend. Chicago could move up to 2 or 3 with two wins.
Augsburg / St. Olaf is another huge game, but even a win for Augsburg won't move them to #1. It seems next week is either Tufts, Emory, or Wash U at the top.
Would a win today by Middlebury over Vassar help them very much and conversely what impact would a Vassar loss have on their NPI?
Quote from: maineman on October 21, 2025, 12:50:41 PMWould a win today by Middlebury over Vassar help them very much and conversely what impact would a Vassar loss have on their NPI?
I can't answer that question specifically, but I thought it noteworthy that Vassar and Middlebury are both under the 10 win threshold. That is holding both of them back due to low NPI opponents dragging down their strength of schedule.
Middlebury is dramatically under the threshold, with only 5 actual wins and 6 NPI wins. Ideally, they would like to be able to drop the win against low NPI ranked Thomas, but that may be a tall order. They would have to win out the rest of the season and win two games in the NESCAC tourney just to drop a game. By then, however, they would have enough QWB points to not need it. Still, every win would help them.
Vassar is closer to being able to drop a bad win/loss with 7 wins and 8.5 NPI wins, but it has more games left and fewer games to win to get there. So, I suspect this game will help their strength of schedule regardless of outcome and they will still have a few more chances to be able to drop low-ranked opponents (likely Bard and NYU).
A win for either of them would definitely be a nice bump for their NPI and both could use it and it gets either one win closer to the 10-win threshold. A tie would keep both where they are.
using this week's numbers a win moves Middlebury to 55.331 which would be #33 (exactly where the last at-large bid was last year).
A win for Vassar moves them to 55.469 which would be #32 in this week's ranking.
Ties and both probably drop a slight bit next week.
It appears that both will be firmly in the at-large bubble conversation, both have many opportunities ahead but yes, this game is important to both, good luck tonight!
fun match middlebury wins 4-2, Vassar drops to around 60 with the loss, last three conference games are critical to get the wins for win bonus and avoid more bad losses on their NPI, Clarkson is must win, likely RPI too.
middlebury moves up to the bubble line with a bubblesque matchup with Bates next and a chance for big points against Williams (win or tie would likely help).
Vassar falling 20 spots in NPI with one loss that was 2-2 in last 8 minutes shows how narrow the gap is in that part of the NPI.
I think Mid will certainly make the tournament!
SUNYAC teams bunched on the edge would be great to see you calculate
Buffalo/Oneonta/Platts/New Paltz (39/41/55/67)
SUNYAC...
Oneonta - Has to beat Canton, gets no benefit in NPI from it but loss is terrible. Then assuming wins in last two games and a New Paltz/Buffalo St win in tourney but loss in final to Cortland...best NPI score the needs at large big - 55.36 or thereabouts....today that's #33, which was the bubble number last year. Go win the next 5, get to the conference final, then worry about at-large bid.
Plattsburgh - Has to beat Potsdam and Buffalo St to end the regular season PLUS hope that they stay in the 3/4 slot to get one more win. Then beat likely New Paltz and Buffalo St. again but lose to Cortland in order to get an NPI of 55.413...like Oneonta, that's right on the bubble line. Go win the next 4, get to the final, then worry about at-large.
Buffalo St. - Has a bit more flexibility. Can lose one of last three, preferably Hobart where they will be the underdog. Win 2, lose to Hobart and NPI before conference tourney is 55.456 (win all is 56.94). Those wins would keep Buffalo in top 2 seed so only semi and final. Beat Oneonta, lose to Cortland. NPI is 55.48 with hobart L and 56.697 with all wins until conf final. Those numbers go down is the loss is to Oswego or Plattsburgh, probably need to win both of those to hold on to at-large hopes.
New Paltz - Has to win the auto-bid, win against Oneonta slightly helps, Canton win is dropped immediately, win two in conference tourney but lose in final and NPI is 54.77 which I don't think will be close enough to be at-large.
Cortland should get at-large bid if they lose in conference tourney, but everyone else has work to do, I think SUNYAC will be a 1-2 bid conference in the end. what's more likely is mixed results, none of these teams wins out and they all drop enough to where no second at-large is possible if Cortland wins conference tournament.
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 20, 2025, 11:26:35 PMNESCAC Protection Index...ha ha, that's a good one.
I don't take credit for this. Someone else on these forums with a much more creative mind came up with it about a year ago.
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 21, 2025, 11:20:52 PMSUNYAC...
Oneonta - Has to be Canton, gets no benefit in NPI from it but loss is terrible. Then assuming wins in last two games and a New Paltz/Buffalo St win in tourney but loss in final to Cortland...best NPI score the needs at large big - 55.36 or thereabouts....today that's #33, which was the bubble number last year. Go win the next 5, get to the conference final, then worry about at-large bid.
Plattsburgh - Has to beat Potsdam and Buffalo St to end the regular season PLUS hope that they stay in the 3/4 slot to get one more win. Then beat likely New Paltz and Buffalo St. again but lose to Cortland in order to get an NPI of 55.413...like Oneonta, that's right on the bubble line. Go win the next 4, get to the final, then worry about at-large.
Buffalo St. - Has a bit more flexibility. Can lose one of last three, preferably Hobart where they will be the underdog. Win 2, lose to Hobart and NPI before conference tourney is 55.456 (win all is 56.94). Those wins would keep Buffalo in top 2 seed so only semi and final. Beat Oneonta, lose to Cortland. NPI is 55.48 with hobart L and 56.697 with all wins until conf final. Those numbers go down is the loss is to Oswego or Plattsburgh, probably need to win both of those to hold on to at-large hopes.
New Paltz - Has to win the auto-bid, win against Oneonta slightly helps, Canton win is dropped immediately, win two in conference tourney but lose in final and NPI is 54.77 which I don't think will be close enough to be at-large.
Cortland should get at-large bid if they lose in conference tourney, but everyone else has work to do, I think SUNYAC will be a 1-2 bid conference in the end. what's more likely is mixed results, none of these teams wins out and they all drop enough to where no second at-large is possible if Cortland wins conference tournament.
Great stuff love the details!
10/26 NPI is out - 10/26 NPI link (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46397?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit)
Last 8 in:
UW - Whitewater (#28, 56.578 NPI)
Middlebury
Macalester
Catholic
Wooster
Bridgewater
Buffalo St.
Hamilton (#40, 55.572 NPI)
Last 8 out:
W&L (#41, 55.563 NPI)
Rowan
Vassar
Carnegie Mellon
UW-Stevens Point
Plattsburgh St.
Rochester
Sewanee
Top 4 (protected) - Tufts, Augsburg, St. Olaf, Wash U
5-8 (protected) - Chicago, Williams, Bowdoin, Emory
Getting down to where flexibility in NPI gets less and conference tourney put losses on a lot of bubble teams. The cut number is still 40 and it won't go higher, last year is was 33 which would make Catholic the last team in right now at 32.
What are implications if Wheaton loses 2x vs Babson between now and Conf Championship?
Using today's numbers (win @ springfield, loss to Babson, win in semis, loss to Babson in final) the NPI would be 56.39 which is #31 today. Not enough to say you are safe, winning first Babson game would do it. Also, conference final loss can't be to anyone except Babson or Wheaton drops too far.
In a good place, just not entirely secure.
Multi-bid conferences
NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
MIAC - 4
ODAC - 4
WIAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
NCAC - 2
Landmark - 2
With Middlebury at #29, a loss to Williams on Tuesday coupled with a loss in the opening round of the NESCAC tournament to Tufts or Williams could be devastating to their chances for an NCAA bid.
Quote from: maineman on October 27, 2025, 12:32:56 PMWith Middlebury at #29, a loss to Williams on Tuesday coupled with a loss in the opening round of the NESCAC tournament to Tufts or Williams could be devastating to their chances for ac NCAA bid.
Actually, no. Wins (or ties) would be huge, but losses to such highly NPI rated teams would not move the needle downward much, if at all.
If they lost both, they would drop to an NPI of 55.752 which would be 36th in this week's rankings. I'm just taking the static values from this week's rankings and the loss values could move up or down slightly as the week progresses (in addition to other teams near them moving up or down). But if they lose both, they would be firmly on the bubble and definitely at risk of missing out
Quote from: paclassic89 on October 27, 2025, 01:19:59 PMIf they lost both, they would drop to an NPI of 55.752 which would be 36th in this week's rankings. I'm just taking the static values from this week's rankings and the loss values could move up or down slightly as the week progresses (in addition to other teams near them moving up or down). But if they lose both, they would be firmly on the bubble and definitely at risk of missing out
They best win or tie one of the games!
Agree with PAClassic and not only because we are both Leeds fans. How he calculated it is how I do it as well. For Middlebury, two losses would almost certainly see them drop out of tourney. The best scenario for two losses is lose to Williams and lose to Tufts which today's numbers gets you to 55.75.
Last year's NPI final cutoff number 55.989.
Think Middlebury has to win one more. Even a tie at Williams would do it too. Tie and loss gets NPI over 56. A tie in first-round of NESCAC (loss in PK's) would also likely get Middlebury over 56.
Just noticed that the NPI rankings updated again today as of games through 10/27/25 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/season_divisions/18611/nitty_gritties) I thought the daily updates didn't start until the week leading up to the National Championship selections but we are still almost two weeks out.??
Quote from: CentPA on October 28, 2025, 02:05:03 PMJust noticed that the NPI rankings updated again today as of games through 10/27/25 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/season_divisions/18611/nitty_gritties) I thought the daily updates didn't start until the week leading up to the National Championship selections but we are still almost two weeks out.??
I guess they really wanted the NPI to reflect the fact that Bethel (MN) beat Wisconsin-River Falls 2-1 yesterday, which was the only game in DIII men's soccer on Monday.
The NCAA typically has updated the NPI more often in the last two weeks including daily last year for the last week. Thought they might wait until after at least Tuesday games to update this week but oh well.
Quote from: Kuiper on October 20, 2025, 12:24:55 PMWanted to offer some comparative data from 2024 that explains the numbers today
In 2024, the lowest non-AQ was Buffalo State at 33. There were 12 AQs in the top 33, with 21 non-AQ teams getting in the tournament.
As of 10/19/25, there are 16 different conferences with teams in the top 33. So, if every one of those 16 conferences continued to have an AQ in the top 33, then the non-AQ teams would go down to #37 (assuming we have the same number of conference AQs this year).
Of course, there will likely be changes between now and the final NPI before selection (which is the only one that matters) that will change the number of conferences with teams in the top 33. It will likely go down, but there are also 4 conferences with teams ranked 34-37 that could jump up into the top 33 with good results the rest of the season and in their conference tournaments, so it could go up too, which would push the minimum ranking number higher. Just wanted to offer this perspective though.
Just to update, as of 10/27, there are still 16 different conferences with teams in the NPI top 33. Plus, there are three more conferences represented just outside the top 33 (Wheaton (IL) (CCIW), Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC), and Ohio Northern (OAC)). Many of the conferences also have more than one team in the top 33, which makes it more likely that it least one of those current teams will get the AQ. So, there is still a chance the NPI rank for the last non-AQ qualifier will extend higher than 33.
Catholic is an interesting NPI example...if they need an at-large bid, they would need to win semis and lost final to Scranton. the difference could come down to who they play in semis Moravian is higher and a better win than Lycoming. 55.93 vs. 56.04 would be NPI difference and that .11 could be what gets them in or out. Take Scranton to PK's and lose and they would be in. Almost guaranteed to be a bubble team.
I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.
Quote from: BlueJay95 on October 29, 2025, 09:59:52 AMI am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.
I'm not a NPI cruncher at the granular level, but I know it is an algorithm that drops games only if it would improve a team's NPI score. So, it must be that the team is better off with all the wins than getting rid of wins for a tiny bit better strength of schedule.
Quote from: BlueJay95 on October 29, 2025, 09:59:52 AMI am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.
That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.
It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 29, 2025, 10:49:28 AMQuote from: BlueJay95 on October 29, 2025, 09:59:52 AMI am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.
I actually figured it out....it's not an error. Rowan's NPI is 55.563. They should be dropping 3 wins, but each of their lowest wins (F&M, Kean, and NJ City) have win values HIGHER than Rowan's current NPI. Thus, dropping them would actually hurt Rowan so they stay in. This happens with the number of losses and ties (which have to be included in NPI calculations) lowers the overall NPI to that level.
So yes, Rowan's NPI is accurate. Learned something new today....
That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.
It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.
Bubble update...
Last 8 in
Amherst (#27, 57.041)
UW-Whitewater
Macalester
Catholic
W&L
Buffalo St.
Hamilton
Rowan (#38, 55.815)
Last 8 out:
Vassar (#41, 55.649)
Carnegie Mellon
UW Stevens Point
Bridgewater
Plattsburgh St.
Bates
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester
Conferences where bids could be "stolen":
C2C - Christopher Newport is in, rest are "stolen"
NCAC - Denison
Centennial - Dickinson
WIAC - UW Eau Claire or Whitewater
NACC - Edgewood
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Montclair or Rowan
OAC - Ohio Northern
Landmark - Scranton or Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
Newmac - Wheaton (MA)
Teams on the bubble want the teams I listed to win their conference tournaments. If not, one less at-large bid is available. I'll track this as we go through conference tournaments.
If a conference is not listed it's very likely a "1 bid" league in my opinion OR it has so many teams already in that it's very unlikely an upset will happen.
I am once again posting with a question for those who understand the NPI calculus far better than I, even though I geek out every day. Once again I see something on Rowan's NPI that I can't find a comp for anywhere else. Their awful tie with Alvernia (outshot them 37-3, tie 1-1) is now listed with a net NPI of 20.542. I, for the life of me, can't figure out how this can be right and have looked for other instances of partial net NPI and found zero. Looked at teams with similar records (W&L), good teams with crap ties (Amherst's tie with Suffolk), teams with tons of ties (Haverford) and can't find anything like this. So a plea for help again as I selfishly hope my kids can play in NCAAs lol. Right now only scenario I see for Profs to get at-large is win v Stockton and loss on PK's (recorded as tie) v Montclair in final.
Quote from: BlueJay95 on November 03, 2025, 08:41:50 AMI am once again posting with a question for those who understand the NPI calculus far better than I, even though I geek out every day. Once again I see something on Rowan's NPI that I can't find a comp for anywhere else. Their awful tie with Alvernia (outshot them 37-3, tie 1-1) is now listed with a net NPI of 20.542. I, for the life of me, can't figure out how this can be right and have looked for other instances of partial net NPI and found zero. Looked at teams with similar records (W&L), good teams with crap ties (Amherst's tie with Suffolk), teams with tons of ties (Haverford) and can't find anything like this. So a plea for help again as I selfishly hope my kids can play in NCAAs lol. Right now only scenario I see for Profs to get at-large is win v Stockton and loss on PK's (recorded as tie) v Montclair in final.
For the Rowan number...teams that have an odd number of ties and are over the 10 win threshold lost half of a tie/win. Then you sum up the Net NPI points and divide by 10.5 (add one for each loss and .5 for each tie). Rowan is also unique in that they can't exclude wins that are above their current NPI because it would hurt their ranking, not help. So their number is divided by 18.5 as of today.
Rowan is likely the most complex calculation of NPI I've found this season.
A win and a tie (PK loss against MSU) gets them to 56.36...that would have got them in last year, it will be tight.
Bubble update...
last team in - Bridgewater #38
last team out - Hamilton #39
Conferences to watch...here's the teams that need to win to avoid a bid being "stolen" and the cut line rising...
Changes from last time - Ohio Northern, Dickinson, and Denison will drop out of at-large with a loss so those conferences move to "one bid"(OAC, NCAC, Centennial). Down to 9 conferences to watch.
C2C - Christopher Newport
WIAC - UW Eau Claire or Whitewater
NACC - Edgewood
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Montclair/Rowan - 1 of 2 in as AQ, the other falls out.
Landmark - Scranton or Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
Newmac - Wheaton (MA)
187 teams still playing right now.
Last 8 in:
Amherst (#30; 56.728) (season done)
VA Wesleyan (season done)
W&L
Southwestern
Buffalo St.
Rowan
Bridgewater (#38; 56.016)
First 8 out (these teams need to win):
Hamilton (#39; 56.015) (season done)
Saint Johns (MN)
Rochester
Loras
Vassar
Mary Washington
SUNY Oneonta
Skidmore (#56; 55.062)
Multi-bid conferences:
NESCAC - 8
ODAC - 5
MIAC - 4
UAA - 4
Landmark - 2
NJAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
WIAC - 2
Conferences to watch...here's the teams that need to win to avoid a bid being "stolen" and the cut line rising...
Changes from last time - moved Centennial (Dickinson #27) back in to possible bid steal, added SUNYAC.
11 conferences to watch...
C2C - Christopher Newport
Centennial - Dickinson
WIAC - UW Eau Claire or Whitewater
NACC - Edgewood
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Montclair/Rowan - 1 of 2 in as AQ, the other falls out.
Landmark - Scranton or Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
SUNYAC - Cortland or Buffalo St.
Newmac - Wheaton (MA)
Edgewood lost to MSOE right now and drops to #34 (56.51 NPI). Puts them on the bubble behind Southwestern, Cut-line moves up to #37 Rowan, Bridgewater fall to "first out". Aurora and MSOE will be first upset conference winner, congrats to them on their wins tonight.
Trinity(TX) is in regardless of what happens in the SAA tourney. Not sure the same can be said for Southwestern.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 04, 2025, 09:15:43 PMTrinity(TX) is in regardless of what happens in the SAA tourney. Not sure the same can be said for Southwestern.
Correct, however, right now Southwestern holds one of the at-large bids, so them winning the conference does not "steal" a bid. Those on the bubble right now should root for Trinity, but Southwestern winning doesn't hurt them. I would love to watch those two teams play again, great rivalry.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 04, 2025, 10:30:15 PMCorrect, however, right now Southwestern holds one of the at-large bids, so them winning the conference does not "steal" a bid. Those on the bubble right now should root for Trinity, but Southwestern winning doesn't hurt them. I would love to watch those two teams play again, great rivalry.
The SAA has (so far, at least) spurned the Flo trend so you should have the chance if all goes according to chalk. I will be interested to see if they use the Southwestern broadcast team or bring in someone else (the SCAC often did this, but I'm not familar with how the SAA does championship broadcasts yet). Links are on the championship website (https://saa-sports.com/tournaments/?id=74).
Thank you! I have Flo as my son is playing in a conference the bowed to the FloSports overlords so I had to contribute to see him play. Have to get my money's worth this week!
141 teams remain after Wed. games
back to 11 conferences to watch...1 bid already stolen.
C2C - Christopher Newport
Centennial - Dickinson
WIAC - UW Eau Claire or Whitewater
NACC - BID STOLEN
NCAC - Denison
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Rowan
Landmark - Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
SUNYAC - Buffalo St.
Newmac - Wheaton (MA)
Still a long way to go, but WPI leads Wheaton in the 67th minute 1-0. They lost to Wheaton 4-0 in the regular season.
WPI hung on to beat Wheaton 1-0.
Bid stolen!
Quote from: SKUD on November 06, 2025, 04:01:40 PMBid stolen!
Man I hate this terminology. I now it's accepted, but nothing was stolen. Winning your conference is the only way to guarantee a bid. WPI didn't "steal" a bid from some team lower in the NPI, that team failed by not winning their AQ as WPI did. At-large's aren't stolen, they are second chances that teams should be grateful they are gifted. What wasn't earned, only bestowed, can't be stolen from you before it is given.
I logged on just to see what people thought of this result.
JK fair! I won't use it again.
Given their current positions in the NPI table, both WPI and Babson need to win the NEWMAC tournament and get the AQ to make it into the field. One of those two teams will get the NEWMAC AQ on Saturday with Wheaton losing to WPI in the NEWMAC semifinals today. Wheaton (MA) is looking to be guaranteed to be in the field through an at-large bid right now due to their position in the NPI table going into the NEWMAC tournament. Because of WPI beating Wheaton in one of the NEWMAC semifinals today, NEWMAC will take an at-large bid, as Wheaton is not going to fall so far down the NPI table with this loss to be out of the tournament. As a result, another team on the NPI bubble just got their bubble popped today and will have to win their AQ to get in if they have not already been eliminated from the AQ hunt by virtue of losing in the conference tournament, or in the case of the UAA or Northwest Conference in men's soccer, by failure of finishing in sole possession of first place on the table at the end of this weekend. We accept the term "bid thief" to refer to a team that just popped another team's bubble. Maybe we should replace the term "bid thief" with "bubble popper" instead.
BTW, a great turnaround performance by WPI today, winning in today's semifinals on the same Keefe Field in Norton, MA where they went down 3-0 in the first half to Wheaton just a few weeks earlier.
If you play that game 9 more times that would be WPI's only win. The goalie was amazing and the Def also cleared balls of the line and blocked quite a few.!
Anyone have word on what the NPI at large bubble line will be? Any predictions on the number based on the current conference final matchups?
Wheaton loses and a bid is stolen, nice win WPI. Babson joins them in the final.
Last four in right now:
Amherst
Southwestern
VA Wesleyan
Buffalo St.
I think the cut-line will be at around 33/34 after it all shuffles with tourney finals. NPI above 56.3 to have a shot to get in.
10 conferences to watch now for moving the cutline higher...2 bids already stolen.
C2C - Christopher Newport
Centennial - Dickinson
WIAC - UW Eau Claire
NACC - BID STOLEN
NCAC - Denison
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Rowan
Landmark - Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
SUNYAC - Buffalo St.
Newmac - BID STOLEN
11-7 NPI update, 126 teams still with a shot at national title
Cut-line, last 4 in...
Edgewood (#30, 56.765)
Amherst
Southwestern (still playing)
VA Wesleyan (#34, 56.477)
Last 4 out...
Hamilton (#37, 55.929)
Saint John's
Rochester (still playing)
Bridgewater (#45, 55.485)
Bid stealing championship matchups are set! (times local)
Saturday
WIAC - UW Eau Claire (v. UW Stevens Point, 1pm)
MWC - Lake Forest (V. Grinnell, 1pm)
SUNYAC - Buffalo St.(v. Oneonta, 3pm)
NCAC - Denison (v. Depauw, 3pm)
Landmark - Catholic (v. Drew, 3:30pm)
NJAC - Rowan (v. TCNJ 7:30pm)
Sunday
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, 10am)
SAA - Southwestern (v. Berry, Noon)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Here's the bubble as of 4pm Saturday
1) VA Wesleyan
2) Denison if they lose final to Depauw
3) Amherst
4) W&L if they lose ODAC final
5) CNU if they lose C2C final
6) Edgewood
7) Hobart if they lose LL final
8) UW-Whitewater
9) Scranton
The following teams need to win title games or they will fall out...
Buffalo St.
Southwestern
Ohio Northern
Catholic
Dickinson
The top 21 in Friday's NPI are all safely in except CNU.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 08, 2025, 12:26:46 AMHere's the bubble with new Saturday NPI
1) VA Wesleyan
2) Brandeis if they lose to NYU
3) Denison if they lose final to Depauw
4) Lake Forest if they lose final to Grinnell
5) Amherst
6) W&L if they lose ODAC final
7) CNU if they lose C2C final
8) Edgewood
9) Hobart if they lose LL final
10) UW-Whitewater
11) Scranton
12) Hampden Sydney (yes, if armageddon happens, even this bid is not safe)
The following teams need to win title games or they will fall out...
Buffalo St.
Southwestern
Ohio Northern
Catholic
Dickinson
The top 21 in Friday's NPI are all safely in except Lake Forest and CNU.
So if 7 bids are stolen, then CNU would be out etc.?
6 now as Brandeis didn't lose today...CNU would have to lose the title game and then maybe sweat out upsets in conference finals.
Lake Farest up 2-0 and UW-EC up 1-0 is a good start for the bubble teams. Depauw is up on Denison though and that would take a bid and drop Denison right in the middle of the bubble.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 08, 2025, 12:26:46 AMHere's the bubble as of 4pm Saturday
1) VA Wesleyan
2) Denison if they lose final to Depauw
3) Amherst
4) W&L if they lose ODAC final
5) CNU if they lose C2C final
6) Edgewood
7) Hobart if they lose LL final
8) UW-Whitewater
9) Scranton
The following teams need to win title games or they will fall out...
Buffalo St.
Southwestern
Ohio Northern
Catholic
Dickinson
The top 21 in Friday's NPI are all safely in except CNU.
DePauw beat Denison 3-1
Catholic over Drew for Landmark AQ.
C2C Championship has been moved to noon. Should be a tight match
I calculate Denison NPI as 56.545 after their loss and VA Wesleyan is sitting at 56.462 with the ODAC title game certainly going to affect that.
Oneonta beat Buffalo St. but Buffalo St. was already below the bubble. So SUNYAC is a two-bid league now (my error on first post, thanks!)
Rowan v. TCNJ just started and is the last game that could burst a bubble.
Here's the bubble right now as best as I can tell...
1) VA Wesleyan
2) Denison
3) Amherst
4) Washington & Lee (if they lose to Lynchburg, down 2-1 now)
Tomorrow's NPI may shift this order, it's very tight between these teams.
Only 4 more conferences can steal bids...
tonight - Rowan (v. TCNJ)
Sunday
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, Noon)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 08, 2025, 07:55:05 PMI calculate Denison NPI as 56.545 after their loss and VA Wesleyan is sitting at 56.462 with the ODAC title game certainly going to affect that.
Oneonta beat Buffalo St. but Buffalo St. was already below the bubble. So SUNYAC is a one-bid league.
Rowan v. TCNJ just started and is the last game that could burst a bubble.
Here's the bubble right now as best as I can tell...
1) VA Wesleyan
2) Denison
3) Amherst
4) Washington & Lee (if they lose to Lynchburg, down 2-1 now)
Tomorrow's NPI may shift this order, it's very tight between these teams.
Only 4 more conferences can steal bids...
tonight - Rowan (v. TCNJ)
Sunday
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, Noon)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Pretty sure the SUNYAC is a two bid league with Cortland
New NPI is out with Saturday games included...here's the bubble...
VA Wesleyan is first team out. #35 56.487
Bubble teams:
Denison 32 56.619
W&L 30 56.754
Edgewood 29 56.812
3 games could pop these bubbles...
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, 10am)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2025, 03:13:08 AMNew NPI is out with Saturday games included...here's the bubble...
VA Wesleyan is first team out. #35 56.487
Bubble teams:
Denison 32 56.619
W&L 30 56.754
Edgewood 29 56.812
3 games could pop these bubbles...
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, 10am)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2025, 03:13:08 AMNew NPI is out with Saturday games included...here's the bubble...
VA Wesleyan is first team out. #35 56.487
Bubble teams:
Denison 32 56.619
W&L 30 56.754
Edgewood 29 56.812
3 games could pop these bubbles...
C2C - Christopher Newport (v. Salisbury, 10am)
Centennial - Dickinson (v. Johns Hopkins TBD) (PK shootout win for Johns Hopkins steals a bid)
Liberty - Hobart (v. Vassar, 1:30 pm)
Is there any chance VA Wesleyan's NPI could jump ahead of Denison's today? VA Wes has a win against CNU and a draw against Dickinson. If both of those teams win today and move up, would that change VA Wesleyan's NPI?
Yes it's possible, root hard for those two teams to win today and for Hobart to win then yes, where the NPI numbers for VA Wesleyan and Denison are will be one of the biggest questions in the final NPI.
Adding to it...Denison has Johns Hopkins in their NPI so that match has twice the impact.
Good luck to the Marlins!