I realized no one had started a thread dedicated to just the NPI rankings. Here are the Top 61 (down to the last 54 or better NPI score)
October 12 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46118)
1. Tufts (58.816)
2. Augsburg
3. Wesleyan
4. Williams
5. Lake Forest
6. Emory
7. Brandeis
8. Wash U.
9. Lynchburg
10. St. Olaf
11. Hobart
12. Wheaton (MA)
13. Denison
14. Cortland
15. Southwestern
16. Amherst
17. Christopher Newport
18. Trinity TX
19. Dickinson
20. Chicago
21. Roger Williams
22. Edgewood
23. Gustavus Adolphus
24. Scranton
25. Bowdoin
26. Bates
27. Montclair State
28. Hampden-Sydney
29. Wis.-Eau Claire
30. Connecticut College
31. Pfeiffer
32. Virginia Wesleyan
33. Babson
34. Ohio Northern
35. Colorado College
36. Catholic
37. Muhlenberg
38. Buffalo State
39. Middlebury
40. Wheaton (IL)
41. Mary Hardin-Baylor
42. Carnegie Mellon
43. Hamilton
44. Vassar
45. Washington & Lee
46. Calvin
47. Sewanee
48. Wooster
49. Loras
50. SUNY Oneonta
51. Macalester
52. SUNY New Paltz
53. Rochester
54. Rowan
55. Whitman
56. Case Western
57. Skidmore
58. Bridgewater
59. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
60. Otterbein
61. Plattsburgh State (54.005)
Quote from: Kuiper on October 13, 2025, 09:49:02 AMI realized no one had started a thread dedicated to just the NPI rankings. Here are the Top 54
October 12 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46118)
1. Tufts
2. Augsburg
3. Wesleyan
4. Williams
5. Lake Forest
6. Emory
7. Brandeis
8. Wash U.
9. Lynchburg
10. St. Olaf
11. Hobart
12. Wheaton (MA)
13. Denison
14. Cortland
15. Southwestern
16. Amherst
17. Christopher Newport
18. Trinity
19. Dickinson
20. Chicago
21. Roger Williams
22. Edgewood
23. Gustavus Adolphus
24. Scranton
25. Bowdoin
26. Bates
27. Montclair State
28. Hampden-Sydney
29. Wis.-Eau Claire
30. Connecticut College
31. Pfeiffer
32. Virginia Wesleyan
33. Babson
34. Ohio Northern
35. Colorado College
36. Catholic
37. Muhlenberg
38. Buffalo State
39. Middlebury
40. Wheaton (IL)
41. Mary Hardin-Baylor
42. Carnegie Mellon
43. Hamilton
44. Vassar
45. Washington & Lee
46. Calvin
47. Sewanee
48. Wooster
49. Loras
50. SUNY Oneonta
51. Macalester
52. SUNY New Paltz
53. Rochester
54. Rowan
Thanks, Kuiper. I will still be posting on the UAA and NESCAC pages a complete list of where each of those respective teams in those leagues are ranked nationally in the NPI rankings at the time of the publishing of each summary report. This thread can be dedicated to who among the DIII men's soccer teams look solidly in at this point vs who would be among the last 7 "bubble" teams in to the tournament field, (or first 7 "bubble" teams out of the tournament field) if the selections were done at the time of each summary report rather than at the end of conference tournament play.
Kuiper, let me know if you want me to move my bubble posts over to this thread, I started one titled NPI bubble and planned to maintain it but can merge here. I link the NPI each week there and also enjoy the detail posted on UAA and NESCAC threads.
Quote from: kansas hokie on October 13, 2025, 11:31:01 AMKuiper, let me know if you want me to move my bubble posts over to this thread, I started one titled NPI bubble and planned to maintain it but can merge here. I link the NPI each week there and also enjoy the detail posted on UAA and NESCAC threads.
I certainly don't mind having two threads, but I decided to create a main thread when I heard Simple Coach mention on his pod that he had trouble finding the rankings (which, to be fair, is because the NCAA doesn't exactly make it easy to find). It's probably easier for people who are just curious and trying to get a lay of the land and not already aware that their school is close to the line or a member of a NPI-rich conference if a thread about bubble teams is part of a thread that has the full rankings.
The new NPI is out. Here is the Top 69 (down to the last 54 NPI score):
Oct. 19 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46277)
1. Tufts [59.772]
2. Augsburg
3. Emory
4. Wash. U.
5. Williams
6. Lake Forest
7. Brandeis
8. St. Olaf
9. Wheaton (MA)
10. Wesleyan
11. Hobart
12. Christopher Newport
13. Hampden-Sydney
14. Chicago
15. Trinity TX
16. Lynchburg
17. Cortland
18. Bowdoin
19. Southwestern
20. Dickinson
21. Denison
22. Edgewood
23. Connecticut College
24. Amherst
25. Wisconsin-Eau Claire
26. Scranton
27. Gustavus Adolphus
28. Montclair State
29. Va. Wesleyan
30. Catholic
31. Washington & Lee
32. Macalester
33. Wooster
34. Wheaton (IL)
35. Mary Hardin-Baylor
36. Roger Williams
37. Colorado College
38. Bridgewater (VA)
39. Buffalo State
40. Vassar
41. Plattsburgh St.
42. Calvin
43. Babson
44. Bates
45. Carnegie Mellon
46. Rowan
47. Skidmore
48. Otterbein
49. Haverford
50. Middlebury
51. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
52. Ohio Northern
53. Pfeiffer
54. Wisconsin-Whitewater
55. SUNY Oneonta
56. Luther
57. Muhlenberg
58. Whitman
59. Hamilton
60. Carleton
61. Illinois Wesleyan
62. Loras
63. Sewanee
64. Suffolk
65. Rochester
66. UMSV
67. SUNY New Paltz
68. UMass Boston
69. Grove City [54.001]
The new NPI is out for Oct 26 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46397) for the Top 50 (NPI 54 and above scores go down to 75 this week)
1. Tufts [60.543]
2. Augsburg
3. St. Olaf
4. Wash. U.
5. Chicago
6. Williams
7. Bowdoin
8. Emory
9. Lynchburg
10. Conn College
11. Wesleyan
12. Wheaton (MA)
13. Christopher Newport
14. Trinity (TX)
15. Cortland
16. Brandeis
17. Lake Forest
18. Hobart
19. Hampden-Sydney
20. Edgewood
21. Southwestern
22. Denison
23. Wisconsin-Eau Claire
24. Va. Wesleyan
25. Gustavus Adolphus
26. Scranton
27. Amherst
28. Wisconsin-Whitewater
29. Middlebury
30. Macalester
31. Dickinson
32. Catholic
33. Montclair State
34. Wheaton (IL)
35. Wooster
36. Mary Hardin-Baylor
37. Bridgewater (VA)
38. Buffalo State
39. Ohio Northern
40. Hamilton
41. Washington & Lee
42. Roger Williams
43. Colorado College
44. Rowan
45. Vassar
46. Carnegie Mellon
47. Wisconsin-Stevens Point
48. UMSV
49. Plattsburgh State
50. Whitman [55.125]
The NPI Rankings are now being released daily. The rankings for 10/28 can be found here (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46439).
I won't re-type the entire top 50 daily, but I'll highlight some of the notable movement at the top (i.e. potentially meaningful for chances of an at-large bid or hosting/protected status) based on yesterday's games:
For teams that played yesterday
Bowdoin jumped from 7 to 4
Conn College jumped from 10 to 7
Wheaton (MA) jumped from 12 to 10
Williams dropped from 6 to 12
Middlebury jumped from 29 to 18
Scranton jumped from 26 to 21
Wisconsin-Whitewater dropped from 28 to 29 (despite winning)
Catholic jumped from 32 to 31
For teams that did not play yesterday (small changes based on results affecting teams they played or movement of unrelated teams):
Wash U. dropped from 4 to 5
Chicago dropped from 5 to 6
Cortland jumped from 15 to 14
Trinity TX dropped from 14 to 15
Edgewood dropped from 20 to 22
Southwestern dropped from 21 to 23
Denison dropped from 22 to 24
Wisc-Eau Claire dropped from 23 to 25
GUstavus Adolphus dropped from 24 to 26
Virginia Wesleyan dropped from 25 to 28
Dickinson dropped from 31 to 32
Buffalo State jumped from 38 to 34
Wheaton (IL) dropped from 34 to 35
Wooster dropped from 35 to 36
Hamilton jumped from 40 to 38
Mary Hardin-Baylor dropped from 36 to 39
The rankings through 10/29 can be found here (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46454)
Notable moves by teams that played a game:
Lynchburg jumps from 9 to 7 after beating Shenandoah
Trinity TX jumps from 15 to 11 after beating Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hampden-Sydney jumps from 19 to 17 after beating Randolph-Macon
Christopher Newport drops from 13 to 19 after losing to Mary Washington
Virginia Wesleyan jumps from 28 to 25 after beating Randolph
Denison drops from 24 to 32 after tying Wabash
Ohio Northern jumps from 40 to 33 after beating Wilmington
Washington & Lee jumps from 41 to 34 after beating Bridgewater (VA)
Montclair State drops from 33 to 35 after tying Rutgers-Camden
Rowan jumps from 43 to 38 after beating TCNJ
Wheaton (IL) drops from 35 to 39 after tying North Central
Vassar jumps from 45 to 41 after beating RPI
Pfeiffer jumps from 60 to 46 after beating Brevard
Bridgewater (VA) drops from 37 to 47 after losing to W&L
Mary Hardin-Baylor drops from 39 to 48 after losing to Trinity (TX)
Notable moves by teams that did not play a game:
Conn College drops from 7 to 9
Wheaton (MA) drops from 10 to 12
Gustavus Adolphus jumps from 26 to 23
Southwestern drops from 23 to 26
Buffalo State drops from 34 to 36
Roger Williams jumps from 42 to 40
Carnegie Mellon jumps from 46 to 42
Wisconsin-Stevens Point jumps from 49 to 44
The report for Oct 30 can be found here. (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46493?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit)
Only significant change is Wisconsin-Eau Claire moved from 24 to 20 after beat Wisconsin-Stevens Point 3-0
With a lot still to shake out, what range of NPI do you guys consider to be bubble? 22-30?
NPI rankings as of 11/1 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46552)
Notable changes in the top 50:
Trinity (TX) jumps from 11 to 5
Bowdoin drops from 4 to 10
Middlebury jumps from 18 to 12
Wash U drops from 5 to 13
Denison jumps from 32 to 28
Bridgewater (VA) jumps from 46 to 39
Rochester jumps from 53 to 42
Colby jumps from 54 to 46
Haverford jumps from 65 to 48
Vassar drops from 41 to 49
Quote from: Kuiper on November 02, 2025, 08:34:18 AMNPI rankings as of 11/1 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46552)
Notable changes in the top 50:
Trinity (TX) jumps from 11 to 5
Bowdoin drops from 4 to 10
Middlebury jumps from 18 to 12
Wash U drops from 13 to 5
Denison jumps from 32 to 28
Bridgewater (VA) jumps from 46 to 39
Rochester jumps from 53 to 42
Colby jumps from 54 to 46
Haverford jumps from 65 to 48
Vassar drops from 41 to 49
A couple more from the top 20 (and some explanation as to why some moves were so large)
Connecticut College jumps from 9 to 4 with their 2-1 result against former #13 Williams, allowing them to drop a result against #204 Rhode Island College.
Trinity(TX) jumps from 11 to 5 thanks to their 2-1 result against former #28 Southwestern, allowing them to drop a result against #237 CMS.
Wesleyan(CT) jumps from 10 to 7 thanks to their 3-2 result against former #29 Amherst, allowing them to drop a result against #173 Springfield.
Lynchburg drops from 7 to 9 despite winning 4-1 over Eastern Mennonite
Wheaton(MA) moves from 12 to 11 after blasting Springfield 5-0 (only their 14th result, no drop)
WashU plunges from 5 to 13 after taking an 0-1 defeat to former #183 NYU
Williams drops from 13 to 16 after their loss to Conn Coll
Lake Forest drops from 16 to 18 despite their win over #337 Monmouth
Hobart moves to 20 from 21 after defeating #198 RPI 6-2
Was wondering if Clarkson ended Vassar's chances for a bid?
They still have the LL tourney
Clarkson loss will prevent Vassar from receiving an at-large bid. Even the best scenario in the tourney won't make up for that loss to allow them to lose to Hobart and get an at-large. It's auto-bid or bust for Vassar.
Win vs SLU, Win vs Skidmore, and then Draw vs Hobart (lose championship in PKs) is best case scenario and would get them to around 40 using today's NPI rankings. Account for NPI movement through championship week and they might be able to finish in the high 30's if everything goes their way. Probably still not good enough but they would be a bubble team
NPI Rankings as of 11/2 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46573)
Not many changes in the Top 50, but two worth noting:
Brandeis drops from 15 to 22 (after losing to Chicago 3-2)
Loras jumps from 53 to 50
If it ended today, there is a chance that the ODAC has 5 teams qualify while the Cent. Conf. has only one.
ODAC has three in for sure it seems (VA wesleyan is the lowest and their season is over, NPI of 56.5 should be high enough).
W&L is going to be tight, may need to win tourney to get in.
Centennial is wild this year...Johns Hopkins 121, F&M 240...definitely a down year with very likely only one bid.
Winning the ODAC might be tough, as W&L already lost to Lynchburg. On the other hand W&L is steadily improving, so who knows.
Quote from: Another Mom on November 03, 2025, 11:33:22 AMWinning the ODAC might be tough, as W&L already lost to Lynchburg. On the other hand W&L is steadily improving, so who knows.
Winning 1 more might be enough. Beating H-SC would give them enough SoS to move up, plus I think it would be an adjusted win to allow them to drop a game like Guilford (I'm assuming Regeant is already dropped), which likely has hurt them a bit. They would certainly hop Va Wes, whose season is over. Even a loss in the title game probably wouldn't be too big a deal since it would likely be to highly ranked Lynchburg.
But yeah, the NCAA tournament is in jeopardy because of ties in games they had no business tying. If they had beaten Ogelthorpe and Covenant, as they should have, they'd be miles further up the NPI. Likely will have to beat the Squids to make up for it.
Just ran W&L numbers...Guilford win is already dropped. Can't drop next highest win because it would hurt W&L NPI.
Lose to HSC on Wednesday and today's NPI would be 56.14, right on the bubble. Win Wednesday and lose to Lynchburg Sunday 56.79, and I think that number is safe to make the tourney.
Top 4 seed conversation....
Tufts - win NESCAC semi, top 4 guaranteed. Lose and 60.42 is NPI number, should be good for top 4 still
Augsburg - loss tonight drops them to 59.74
St. Olaf - lose and no top 4 (semi loss = 58.9; final loss - 59.2), win conference = 60.63
Conn/Wesleyan - NESCAC semi, one jumps up, one falls down. Winner has chance for top 4, but needs to win NESCAC to do it.
Trinity - 60.01 is they beat Southwestern in final. 59.2 is they beat anyone other that Southwestern in final.
Chicago - 59.62 if they beat Wash U
Emory - 59.44 if they beat Rochester
I think that's the only teams that can make the top 4. Tufts, St. Olaf, Trinity, Augsburg is where I think it will land.
Great info Kansas!
NPI rankings as of 11/3 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46593)
Notable changes:
Augsburg drops from 2 to 3 after losing to St. John's 2-1
St. Olaf jumps from 3 to 2
Gustavus Adolphus jumps from 24 to 16 after beating Bethel (MN) 3-0
Macalester jumps from 25 to 21
Saint John's jumps from 66 to 40 after beating Augsburg 2-1
NPI rankings as of 11/4 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46616)
Notable changes:
Edgewood dropped from 23 to 29 after losing to MSOE 2-0
Roger Williams dropped from 42 to 47 after tying Western New England 2-2
Vassar jumped from 51 to 48 after beating St. Lawrence 4-1
Edgewood, Amherst, and VA Wesleyan all clumped together and season over. Will be interesting to watch if the cut-line gets closer to them OR if they float higher as teams lose in conference tournaments. I think they each will make it.
Oneonta knocks out Cortland on PKs in the SUNYAC semifinals, that's a bubble pop.
Not really a bubble pop but definitely a big result.
Buffalo St. plays Oneonta in the final, Buffalo St. is in the tourney today so a win by them doesn't change the bubble.
Oneonta win the final? That knocks Buff St. off the bubble so it's a net zero. Only a PK loss could keep Buff St. in the tourney as at large...
Buff St. loses in final to Oneonta - NPI 55.86 (very likely out)
Buff St. ties in final (PK loss) - NPI 56.37 (right on bubble)
Oneonta is in win or go home mode.
Quote from: Caz Bombers on November 05, 2025, 03:59:18 PMOneonta knocks out Cortland on PKs in the SUNYAC semifinals, that's a bubble pop.
I don't know, but thought it was a real fun game to watch...
SC.
NPI rankings as of 11/5 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46633)
Notable changes:
Lynchburg jumped from 9 to 5 (now I've got Dolly Parton singing in my head) after beating Bridgewater 3-0
Trinity dropped from 5 to 7
Gustavus Adolphus jumped from 16 to 13
Lake Forest jumped from 17 to 14
Wash U dropped from 13 to 15
Wisconsin-Eau Claire jumped from 19 to 16
Cortland dropped from 14 to 17 after tying Oneonta 3-3 (and losing in PKs)
Macalester jumped from 22 to 18
Hampden-Sydney dropped from 15 to 23 after losing to Washington & Lee 2-0
Denison jumped from 27 to 24 after beating Wooster 2-1
Scranton dropped from 24 to 26 after tying Drew (and losing in PKs)
Washington & Lee jumped from 32 to 27 after beating Hampden-Sydney 2-0
Buffalo State jumped from 37 to 34 after beating Fredonia 2-0
Luther jumped from 46 to 39 after beating Central 1-0
Montclair State dropped from 35 to 40 after losing to TCNJ 4-1
UMSV jumped from 44 to 42 after beating Farmingdale State 4-0
Calvin jumped from 59 to 43 after beating Albion 4-1
Bridgewater (VA) dropped from 38 to 45 after losing to Lynchburg 3-0
DePauw jumped from 60 to 46 after beating Kenyon 3-2
Wheaton (IL) dropped from 41 to 47 after losing to North Park 2-1
Oneonta jumped from 55 to 49 after tying Cortland (and advancing on PKs)
Pfeiffer dropped from 45 to 56 after tying Methodist (and losing on PKs)
Wow, so Montclair is prob not going to make the cut for the tournament, eh?
Quote from: LibbyMoore on November 06, 2025, 11:28:16 AMWow, so Montclair is prob not going to make the cut for the tournament, eh?
Correct, Montclair is very very likely out. Cutline today is Hamilton #38 and it will almost certainly rise. Montclair, at 40, is not looking good.
NPI rankings as of 11/6 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46654)
Notable changes:
Macalester jumps from 18 to 11 after beating Gustavus Adolphus 2-1
Wisconsin-Eau Claire jumps from 16 to 12 after beating Wisconsin-Platteville 1-0
Hobart jumps from 20 to 17
Gustavus Adolphus drops from 13 to 19 after losing to Macalester 2-1
Wheaton (MA) drops from 11 to 21 after losing to WPI 1-0
Wisconsin-Whitewater drops from 25 to 27 after tying Wisconsin-Stevens Point (and losing in PKs)
Ohio Northern jumps from 36 to 31 after beating Mount Union 4-1
Saint John's drops from 37 to 39 after losing to St. Olaf 3-1
With Edgewood and Wheaton (MA) losing but keeping bids, the line to make the tourney is moving...
last 4 in...
Edgewood (#30, 56.765)
Amherst (#32, 56.636)
Southwestern (still playing) (#33, 56.521)
VA Wesleyan (#34, 56.477)
How is Augsburg up to 60.3 after their loss?!
What are the shake-up scenarios that would change the top-4? I'm thinking the only teams that still have a chance to be top-4 are Tufts, St. Olaf, Augsburg, Chicago, and whoever wins the Conn/Wesleyan game.
Additionally, I think Tufts is the only team guaranteed to remain top-4 no matter what.
Non-NESCAC teams are probably hoping for Tufts to win the NESCAC to avoid a 2nd NESCAC team getting into top-4.
St. Olaf can move up with a win tomorrow over #11 Macalester, but it looks like a loss would drop them below Augsburg?
Chicago can move up with a win tomorrow over #15 WashU, but how high would that get their NPI? A Chicago loss means they could get hopscotched by Lynchburg and/or Conn/Wesleyan (if either wins NESCAC, or potentially even if one of them loses to Tufts in the NESCAC finals).
I assume Lynchburg can't get over 60.0 even if they defeat #26 Wash&Lee? And same for Emory even if they defeat #41 Rochester?
I'm thinking Tufts worst-case is finishing at #4 but still above Augsburg.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 03, 2025, 10:45:58 PMTop 4 seed conversation....
Tufts - win NESCAC semi, top 4 guaranteed. Lose and 60.42 is NPI number, should be good for top 4 still
Augsburg - loss tonight drops them to 59.74
St. Olaf - lose and no top 4 (semi loss = 58.9; final loss - 59.2), win conference = 60.63
Conn/Wesleyan - NESCAC semi, one jumps up, one falls down. Winner has chance for top 4, but needs to win NESCAC to do it.
Trinity - 60.01 is they beat Southwestern in final. 59.2 is they beat anyone other that Southwestern in final.
Chicago - 59.62 if they beat Wash U
Emory - 59.44 if they beat Rochester
I think that's the only teams that can make the top 4. Tufts, St. Olaf, Trinity, Augsburg is where I think it will land.
Augsburg benefits from teams on their schedule (that the beat) winning in their respective tournaments...Macalester, Eau Claire, Whitewater, and Gust. Aldophus and each of those move up in Quality Win Bonus as well. Augsburg was 59.9 when they lost and have floated up to 60.3, product of a good season with a lot of good wins.
Top 4 thoughts...
Tufts - lowest they can drop to is 60.312 (Middlebury loss)
St. Olaf - lose 59.88; win 61.35
Augsburg - done. 60.309
Chicago - lose 59.106; win 60.37
Lynchburg - lose 58.33 ; win 59.72
Emory - lose 58.17; win 59.44
Trinity - lose Berry 57.88; win Berry/lose SW 58.36; win tourney 59.97
Conn - win NESCAC (60.4 Tufts/ 60.29 M'bury)
Wesleyan - win NESCAC (60.37 tufts/ 60.14 M'bury)
Tufts will be top 4 no matter what.
If Conn/Wesleyan win NESCAC, they are top 4 unless they beat M'bury in final instead of Tufts.
next is a MIAC team or two (Olaf/Augsburg/both),
then Chicago if they beat Wash U,
then Trinity if they win their conference.
Lynchburg and Emory can sneak in there with an unexpected set of results (Tufts wins NESCAC, Chicago and Trinity lose, Emory would also need Lynchburg to lose).
Thanks a ton for those calcs!
I suppose Trinity could get as high as #3 if they win and both St. Olaf and Chicago lose. That would probably also require Middlebury to win the NESCAC. Otherwise if Conn or Wesleyan wins NESCAC then Trinity would be limited to 4th at best.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 07, 2025, 03:13:39 PMTop 4 thoughts...
Tufts - lowest they can drop to is 60.312 (Middlebury loss)
St. Olaf - lose 59.88; win 61.35
Augsburg - done. 60.309
Chicago - lose 59.106; win 60.37
Lynchburg - lose 58.33 ; win 59.72
Emory - lose 58.17; win 59.44
Trinity - lose Berry 57.88; win Berry/lose SW 58.36; win tourney 59.97
Conn - win NESCAC 60.4
Wesleyan - win NESCAC 60.37
Tufts will be top 4 no matter what.
If Conn/Wesleyan win NESCAC, they are top 4.
next is a MIAC team or two (Olaf/Augsburg/both),
then Chicago if they beat Wash U,
then Trinity if they win their conference.
Lynchburg and Emory can sneak in there with an unexpected set of results (Tufts wins NESCAC, Chicago and Trinity lose, Emory would also need Lynchburg to lose).
Something to keep an eye on if this shutdown drags on. If the NCAA is thinking about it, they may try to avoid air travel even more than usual.
NCAA Warns Schools Government Shutdown May Affect Fall Championships (https://frontofficesports.com/ncaa-government-shutdown-air-travel-championships/)
The NCAA is "monitoring the impact and risk" of the shutdown to travel and "exploring" its options "since this is an issue that cannot be controlled by the national office or the membership. Rest assured that the national office staff is committed to working on these potential issues so the student-athletes, coaches and administrators can have great experiences competing for national championships this fall."
NPI rankings as of 11/7 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46664)
Notable changes in the top 50:
Trinity drops from 7 to 9 after tying Berry (Trinity lost in PKs)
Dickinson jumped from 28 to 24 after beating Muhlenberg 3-0
Washington & Lee dropped from 26 to 28
Colorado College jumped from 43 to 40 after beating Austin College 2-0
Vassar jumped from 50 to 43 after beating Skidmore 2-0
Quote from: Kuiper on November 07, 2025, 06:04:25 PMSomething to keep an eye on if this shutdown drags on. If the NCAA is thinking about it, they may try to avoid air travel even more than usual.
NCAA Warns Schools Government Shutdown May Affect Fall Championships (https://frontofficesports.com/ncaa-government-shutdown-air-travel-championships/)
The NCAA is "monitoring the impact and risk" of the shutdown to travel and "exploring" its options "since this is an issue that cannot be controlled by the national office or the membership. Rest assured that the national office staff is committed to working on these potential issues so the student-athletes, coaches and administrators can have great experiences competing for national championships this fall."
An interesting subplot. Especially with potentially 4 1st/2nd round hosts in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area plus 2 around Chicago. I'm fudging the numbers a little bit and counting Eau Claire among the 4, which is about 90 minutes from MSP. I wonder if it will cause one of them not to host. With 18 other teams having to get to those sites (4 MSP plus 2 Chicago) it seems to me that could cause more flights than usual, which is not preferred anyways, but especially bad this year.
Top 4 seed update...
Tufts is in.
Augsburg is in. 60.354 today
St. Olaf 59.92 after loss today.
Conn College 59.838 after win today
Lynchburg 59.728 after win tonight.
Emory 59.47 after win tonight.
Tufts wins NESCAC, Lynchburg is national top 4 seed.
Conn wins NESCAC, Conn is national top 4 seed.
Emory is likely 6 and the last two top 8 seeds will be interesting to see tomorrow.
NPI Rankins as of 11/8 (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46672)
Notable changes from the top 50:
Conn College jumps from 7 to 5 after beating Wesleyan 2-1
Macalester jumps from 11 to 6 after beating St. Olaf 4-1
Emory drops from 6 to 7 after beating Rochester 2-1
Chicago drops from 4 to 8 after losing to Wash. U. 1-0
Wash. U. jumps from 15 to 9 after beating Chicago 1-0
Wisconsin-Eau-Claire jumps from 12 to 10 after beating Wisconsin-Stevens Point 1-0
Trinity (TX) drops from 9 to 12
Wesleyan drops from 8 to 13 after losing to Conn College 2-1
Middlebury drops from 13 to 15 after losing to Tufts 3-2
Gustavus Adolphus jumps from 20 to 18
Hobart jumps from 19 to 17
Dickinson jumps from 24 to 22
Scranton jumps from 26 to 23
Catholic jumps from 29 to 25 after beating Drew 1-0
Brandeis drops from 21 to 26 after tying NYU 1-1
Amherst jumps from 32 to 28
Washington & Lee drops from 28 to 30 after losing to Lynchburg 2-1
Denison drops from 23 to 32 after losing to DePauw 3-1
Rowan jumps from 36 to 33 after beating TCNJ
Calvin jumps from 45 to 37 after beating Hope 2-0
DePauw jumps from 47 to 39 after beating Denison 3-1
Oneonta jumps from 50 to 41 after beating Buffalo State 2-1
Carnegie Mellon jumps from 58 to 47 after beating CWRU 1-0
Rochester drops from 42 to 48 after losing to Emory 2-1
Roger Williams drops from 48 to 50 after tying Suffolk 1-1 (and winning in PKs)
Only 9 schools in the top 40 with AQs, although a few more conferences to be decided today. Could still end up with the 12 in the top 32 that we had last season, but might be lower than that.
Do we have a list of the nine that are already in? Thank you for all the stat work, love it!
Quote from: LibbyMoore on November 09, 2025, 11:22:45 AMDo we have a list of the nine that are already in? Thank you for all the stat work, love it!
On the NPI rankings list that I linked above, they are the schools with the "(AQ)" in superscript next to their name. There are obviously more than 9 in the whole list, but these are the ones in the top 40
Lynchburg (ODAC)
Macalester (MIAC)
Wisconsin-Eau Claire (WIAC)
Lake Forest (MWC)
Catholic (Landmark)
Rowan (NJAC)
Luther (American Rivers)
Calvin (MIAA)
DePauw (NCAC)
Thank you for the list and your patient reply! Totally missed the AQ designations.
Looks like Dickinson is doing a bubble team a favor. Up 4-0 at the half with 3 (one in the 1st 38 sec) and a pk with a few sec left in the half.
With CNU win and Dickinson up so much, the bubble teams need to hope that Hobart keeps their 1-0 lead in the Libery league title match on now. Go check it out - https://hwsathletics.com/watch/?Live=1985&type=Live
They have the best video stream experience in D3, Flosports could learn a thing or two.
think It's down to Denison and VA Wesleyan
W&L NPI - 56.754 and uses CNU in their numbers (won)
Denison NPI - 56.619 and uses Johns Hopkins in their numbers (lost)
VA Wesleyan NPI - 56.487 and uses CNU and Dickinson in their numbers (both won)
Think W&L is safe. Denison is most likely in, but those results will narrow the gap and other results will shift where it seems possible for VA Wesleyan to jump over Denison and get the last bid.
Now, if Vassar comes back to win Liberty League then Denison and VA Weseleyan are done.... Vassar playing a man down now though.
Berry beats Southwestern on a last second PK to win the SAA. Someone is getting their bubble popped since I presume Trinity and Southwestern will make the tournament as at large bid (unless Southwestern drops completely out because of this loss)!
Southwestern will be out due to the loss.
Heartwrenching way to lose the final, tying goal in 82nd minute, PK called in 89th. wow, congrats to Berry on fighting back to keep their season going.
Vassar with two men down loses to Hobart 1-2, is that the last game of the day?
Quote from: LibbyMoore on November 09, 2025, 03:33:37 PMVassar with two men down loses to Hobart 1-2, is that the last game of the day?
There are still other games that will decide NCAA spots, but not sure if there are any that affect bubble teams
Texas Lutheran v. Colorado College (TLU up 1-0 in the 30th minute)
Pacific Lutheran at Whitman
OAC final between ONU and Otterbein is in PKs I think
Otterbein beats Ohio Northern in PKs
That could pop a bubble unless ONU is out
ONU is very likely out, the tie (PK shootout) drops they NPI to 56.496 which is under Denison and virtually tied with VA Wesleyan. One spot for those three.
Would love to hear some speculations on who the regional pod hosts will be and how they mix up the conferences! Especially how the travel/flights will be handled for us out in the midwest or the western/southern spread out schools, this is quite a puzzle!
Quote from: LibbyMoore on November 09, 2025, 06:10:52 PMWould love to hear some speculations on who the regional pod hosts will be and how they mix up the conferences! Especially how the travel/flights will be handled for us out in the midwest or the western/southern spread out schools, this is quite a puzzle!
I would imagine the southern schools get primarily sent to Emory and Trinity(Tx). As for the western schools, I think a good number of them are flying to NESCAC schools with the goal to have midwest schools not fly and send them all to MIAC schools that are hosting
Trinity will host Hardin Simmons and Texas Lutheran and have one team flown in as a 2 seed.
Emory won't host, conflict with women's team and women have priority this year. Emory will almost certainly go to Hampden Sydney as not many 2 seeds are driveable for them.
The bracket challenge this year is finding enough teams to fill the pods in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lots of top ranked teams up there but not enough other teams qualified. I think the two West coast teams (Occidental and Whitman) are flying to Minneapolis.
There are 5 top 16 teams in upper midwest (6 if you count U Chicago) - Augsburg, St. Olaf, Macalester, UW Eau Claire, and Lake Forest. In the bottom 32 teams, there's only 5 teams that are in driving distance to that group and you add in the 2 out west you still don't get enough. I'm starting to wonder if lake forest gets bumped as a host and becomes a 2 seed at a place like Eau Claire.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2025, 06:34:15 PMTrinity will host Hardin Simmons and Texas Lutheran and have one team flown in as a 2 seed.
Emory won't host, conflict with women's team and women have priority this year. Emory will almost certainly go to Hampden Sydney as not many 2 seeds are driveable for them.
The bracket challenge this year is finding enough teams to fill the pods in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lots of top ranked teams up there but not enough other teams qualified. I think the two West coast teams (Occidental and Whitman) are flying to Minneapolis.
There are 5 top 16 teams in upper midwest (6 if you count U Chicago) - Augsburg, St. Olaf, Macalester, UW Eau Claire, and Lake Forest. In the bottom 32 teams, there's only 5 teams that are in driving distance to that group and you add in the 2 out west you still don't get enough. I'm starting to wonder if lake forest gets bumped as a host and becomes a 2 seed at a place like Eau Claire.
Region X is done with Whitman beating Pacific Lutheran 3-1
Problem out west is that Trinity is the only team that is host-worthy and the NPI rankings go down sharply after that. Coming into today, Texas Lutheran was #114, Hardin-Simmons was #231, Whitman was #73, and Occidental was #130. Maybe Whitman goes up enough with a victory today that they could be considered for a #2, but that's it. Texas Lutheran will rise with its victory over Colorado College, but not that much. You could send Lyon (Arkansas) (#229) from the SLIAC to Trinity, but that would make the pod too easy with Hardin-Simmons already there.
spot on Kuiper...I think Whitman and Occidental have to fly anyways so they will go to midwest (Minneapolis specifically) as that's a major airport. TX Lutheran, HSC, and Trinity are driveable so, like last year with Bowdoin, someone will fly in as the #2 seed in that pod (I'm picking Amherst).
bracket guess (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13KGuthcLCQCMbZvfUaNMmIhdwFqUVdKxIMCAwFiMjEs/edit?usp=sharing)
Final NPI is posted - NPI selections (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46698?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit)
VA Wesleyan is the first team out...by .05 NPI points.
Denison is the last team in - #31, 56.597
Last year it was Buffalo St. - #33, and NPI just under 56.
Congrats to the teams that made it this year!
Does anyone have the exact formula used for Men's D3 Soccer NPI calculations? I've done some googling and found high-level overview but I can't find the details.
I've read 15% is SOS and 85% is wining percentage, then there's a QWB multiplier if you defeat teams inside the top ~80 NIP (>= 54.0 NPI for 2025, right?). Then there's ability to drop certain games or not count them at all? Do you drop "bad wins" only, or do you also drop any "bad losses" or ties?
Then how is SOS calculated? Seems like SOS depends on opponents' NPI, but NPI depends on SOS and it becomes a circular calculation?
IDK if anyone has already created an XLS that helps model this out but what I was hoping to do is get to a point where I could change the outcomes of a few key games to see how a team's NPI would be affected. For example (I mostly follow NESCAC) if Williams had tied (or lost) to Tufts early this season, how much would their NPI have suffered?
Or if Brandeis hadn't played so many really tough opponents (4 games vs Top-13 NPI and 5 vs Top-21 NPI) - looks like they could've been ranked much higher if they had defeated NPI teams in the 50-100 range rather than playing games vs Top-10 teams (for example compare #26 Brandeis to #4 Lynchburg or #5 Emory).
vs Top-30 opponents:
#26 Brandeis 1-2-2 (4 games vs Top 13 and the 5th was #21 Wheaton. Won over #13 Wesleyan and tied #5 Emory and Wheaton)
#4 Lynch 2-1-0 (2 wins both against #29 WashLee; 1 loss against #23 Hamp-Syd. No games against Top 20 teams)
#5 Emory 1-1-2 (1 win vs #29 WashLee in August; ties #26 Brandeis and #8 Chicago; loss to #10 WashU
Any info appreciated.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 08:52:19 AMDoes anyone have the exact formula used for Men's D3 Soccer NPI calculations? I've done some googling and found high-level overview but I can't find the details.
I've read 15% is SOS and 85% is wining percentage, then there's a QWB multiplier if you defeat teams inside the top ~80 NIP (>= 54.0 NPI for 2025, right?). Then there's ability to drop certain games or not count them at all? Do you drop "bad wins" only, or do you also drop any "bad losses" or ties?
Then how is SOS calculated? Seems like SOS depends on opponents' NPI, but NPI depends on SOS and it becomes a circular calculation?
IDK if anyone has already created an XLS that helps model this out but what I was hoping to do is get to a point where I could change the outcomes of a few key games to see how a team's NPI would be affected. For example (I mostly follow NESCAC) if Williams had tied (or lost) to Tufts early this season, how much would their NPI have suffered?
Or if Brandeis hadn't played so many really tough opponents (4 games vs Top-13 NPI and 5 vs Top-21 NPI) - looks like they could've been ranked much higher if they had defeated NPI teams in the 50-100 range rather than playing games vs Top-10 teams (for example compare #26 Brandeis to #4 Lynchburg or #5 Emory).
vs Top-30 opponents:
#26 Brandeis 1-2-2 (4 games vs Top 13 and the 5th was #21 Wheaton. Won over #13 Wesleyan and tied #5 Emory and Wheaton)
#4 Lynch 2-1-0 (2 wins both against #29 WashLee; 1 loss against #23 Hamp-Syd. No games against Top 20 teams)
#5 Emory 1-1-2 (1 win vs #29 WashLee in August; ties #26 Brandeis and #8 Chicago; loss to #10 WashU
Any info appreciated.
Here is a the calc for Brandeis (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MKxV_KWyKSlG6CoGYA38gvxNkPLtFihe/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105255316006457184300&rtpof=true&sd=true) Left side is the current download from NCAA.com. Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.
Quote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2025, 09:48:33 AMHere is a the calc for Brandeis (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MKxV_KWyKSlG6CoGYA38gvxNkPLtFihe/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105255316006457184300&rtpof=true&sd=true) Left side is the current download from NCAA.com. Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.
Thanks!!!
So how does SOS work? Is it 15 for every team or is there a secondary set of calculations that assigns a specific value for each team?
In your XLS file, why does the Regis win only count as 1/2? And why wouldn't the Anna Maria win contribute to Brandeis's final tally?
Does final NPI calculation include all ties and losses? But only some of the wins?
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMQuote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2025, 09:48:33 AMHere is a the calc for Brandeis (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MKxV_KWyKSlG6CoGYA38gvxNkPLtFihe/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105255316006457184300&rtpof=true&sd=true) Left side is the current download from NCAA.com. Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.
Thanks!!!
So how does SOS work? Is it 15 for every team or is there a secondary set of calculations that assigns a specific value for each team?
In your XLS file, why does the Regis win only count as 1/2? And why wouldn't the Anna Maria win contribute to Brandeis's final tally?
Does final NPI calculation include all ties and losses? But only some of the wins?
Attempting to answer my own questions:
Brandeis 9-3-5 overall. "Adjustments" divide the ties by 2 and adds that amount to both the Win column AND the loss column? Resulting in (9+2.5) - (3+2.5) = 11.5 - 5.5.
Then since the "minimum wins" is set at 10, Brandeis gets to remove their lowest 1.5 wins (unless those scores would help their overall NPI). So Anna Maria is tossed as the "worst" win and half of the Regis win is tossed as the "2nd worst win" but it's only half tossed because they need to stay at 10.0 adjusted wins.
Similarly, Amherst was 8-5-3 on the season which gets adjusted to 9.5 - 6.5. Since Amherst doesn't hit the 10.0 threshold for wins, they do not get to remove any scores from their computation?
I still don't know how SOS is calculated but I think I understand everything else.
By my calculations (assuming SOS = 15), Williams would not have made the tournament had they lost to Tufts early in the season. Williams would've dropped to NPI #33 56.548 and therefore would've been the highest rated team to miss the cut.
So a loss against the #1 team (Loss Val = 53.267) is equivalent to a win against #352 Linfield (Win Val = 53.3).
Or, defeating teams with Win Values = 57.0 all season long is enough to get into the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid. Win value of 57.0 is equivalent to playing #233 Millikin with an overall record of 6-9-1. So you can basically play an entire season against teams that are around .500 and still be highly rated.
I was told there would be no math.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 11:24:03 AMQuote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMQuote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2025, 09:48:33 AMHere is a the calc for Brandeis (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MKxV_KWyKSlG6CoGYA38gvxNkPLtFihe/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105255316006457184300&rtpof=true&sd=true) Left side is the current download from NCAA.com. Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.
Thanks!!!
So how does SOS work? Is it 15 for every team or is there a secondary set of calculations that assigns a specific value for each team?
In your XLS file, why does the Regis win only count as 1/2? And why wouldn't the Anna Maria win contribute to Brandeis's final tally?
Does final NPI calculation include all ties and losses? But only some of the wins?
Attempting to answer my own questions:
Brandeis 9-3-5 overall. "Adjustments" divide the ties by 2 and adds that amount to both the Win column AND the loss column? Resulting in (9+2.5) - (3+2.5) = 11.5 - 5.5.
Then since the "minimum wins" is set at 10, Brandeis gets to remove their lowest 1.5 wins (unless those scores would help their overall NPI). So Anna Maria is tossed as the "worst" win and half of the Regis win is tossed as the "2nd worst win" but it's only half tossed because they need to stay at 10.0 adjusted wins.
Similarly, Amherst was 8-5-3 on the season which gets adjusted to 9.5 - 6.5. Since Amherst doesn't hit the 10.0 threshold for wins, they do not get to remove any scores from their computation?
I still don't know how SOS is calculated but I think I understand everything else.
By my calculations (assuming SOS = 15), Williams would not have made the tournament had they lost to Tufts early in the season. Williams would've dropped to NPI #33 56.548 and therefore would've been the highest rated team to miss the cut.
So a loss against the #1 team (Loss Val = 53.267) is equivalent to a win against #352 Linfield (Win Val = 53.3).
Or, defeating teams with Win Values = 57.0 all season long is enough to get into the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid. Win value of 57.0 is equivalent to playing #233 Millikin with an overall record of 6-9-1. So you can basically play an entire season against teams that are around .500 and still be highly rated.
Lake Forest is probably the closest test for your last statement in the current rankings, although they won their conference's AQ, so they didn't need to meet any NPI standard. They only beat one team that was in the top 31 schools and only two other teams that won their conference AQ despite finishing outside the cut line. They only had three wins that got them QWB points. They dropped 8 wins from their record (all of which had win values below 57) to get their SoS up to finish #14 in the NPI rankings. Their average win value from the 12 wins that counted was 59.50, but their average win value from all 20 regular season + conference tournament games played, including those that were dropped, was 57.79.
You can play a middling schedule, but you just have to win all those games. Since it's hard to be sure you win as many games as Lake Forest did and there are bound to be a few teams that end up below middling, you need some above average and 1-2 strong wins to balance things out.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 11:24:03 AMQuote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMQuote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2025, 09:48:33 AMHere is a the calc for Brandeis (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MKxV_KWyKSlG6CoGYA38gvxNkPLtFihe/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105255316006457184300&rtpof=true&sd=true) Left side is the current download from NCAA.com. Right side (columns L - N) is the recalc including formulas so you can see how the 85/15, QWB and other factors are applied.
Thanks!!!
So how does SOS work? Is it 15 for every team or is there a secondary set of calculations that assigns a specific value for each team?
In your XLS file, why does the Regis win only count as 1/2? And why wouldn't the Anna Maria win contribute to Brandeis's final tally?
Does final NPI calculation include all ties and losses? But only some of the wins?
Attempting to answer my own questions:
Brandeis 9-3-5 overall. "Adjustments" divide the ties by 2 and adds that amount to both the Win column AND the loss column? Resulting in (9+2.5) - (3+2.5) = 11.5 - 5.5.
Then since the "minimum wins" is set at 10, Brandeis gets to remove their lowest 1.5 wins (unless those scores would help their overall NPI). So Anna Maria is tossed as the "worst" win and half of the Regis win is tossed as the "2nd worst win" but it's only half tossed because they need to stay at 10.0 adjusted wins.
Similarly, Amherst was 8-5-3 on the season which gets adjusted to 9.5 - 6.5. Since Amherst doesn't hit the 10.0 threshold for wins, they do not get to remove any scores from their computation?
Yes
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMI still don't know how SOS is calculated but I think I understand everything else.
SOS is basically multiply either the win or loss value by 85% (or half of each for a tie.) The extra 15 in the formula is credit for a win (the other 15%.) You can see this in the difference between the formulas in column L vs column M. The other difference in the formulas is to add the QWB in column G for the wins.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMBy my calculations (assuming SOS = 15), Williams would not have made the tournament had they lost to Tufts early in the season. Williams would've dropped to NPI #33 56.548 and therefore would've been the highest rated team to miss the cut.
I get the same so yes.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMSo a loss against the #1 team (Loss Val = 53.267) is equivalent to a win against #352 Linfield (Win Val = 53.3).
Interesting way to look at it but yes.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 13, 2025, 10:46:33 AMOr, defeating teams with Win Values = 57.0 all season long is enough to get into the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid. Win value of 57.0 is equivalent to playing #233 Millikin with an overall record of 6-9-1. So you can basically play an entire season against teams that are around .500 and still be highly rated.
Another interesting perspective and yes as long as you win every game. Lake Forest is probably as close to this scenario as you can get this year.
If you are going down a path that teams should schedule cupcakes...
Millikin's win value is 57.0 on an NPI of 49.41 (85% of 49.41 + 15.) Millikin generally lost games vs higher NPI teams (and won vs lower NPI ones.) Their NPI is impacted by SOS even for the losses to teams such as Wis Whitewater (27) and Wheaton Ill (51). (Interestingly they exclude a loss to Wash U (10) because the
loss value here is greater than their own NPI.)
It would be difficult to reach the current at large cut off of 56.60 by playing teams with .500 records
that only play other teams with .500 records. Edit: Kuiper beat me to it :)
Quote from: Bucket on November 13, 2025, 11:47:51 AMI was told there would be no math.
;D Isn't math part of a strong NESCAC liberal arts degree?
Probably why I went to W&L. No math! (Took computer science instead. And fared poorly.)