Here are the automatic qualifiers (courtesy D3Soccer World (https://x.com/D3SoccerWorld/status/1987671382117748790?s=20) on X)
Tufts - NESCAC
Wash U - UAA
Macalester - MIAC
Hobart - Liberty
Lake Forest - MWC
Babson - NEWMAC
Christopher Newport - C2C
Berry - SAA
Oneonta - SUNYAC
Dickinson - Centennial
DePauw - NCAC
MSOE - NACC
WI Eau Claire - WIAC
Catholic - Landmark
Rowan - NJAC
Lynchburg - ODAC
Illinois Wesleyan - CCIW
Hardin-Simmons - ASC
Roger Williams - CNE
Texas Lutheran - SCAC
Calvin - MIAA
Otterbein - OAC
NC Wesleyan - USA South
Luther - ARC
UMass Boston - Little East
Grove City - Presidents
St Joseph's LI - Skyline
Transylvania - HCAC
Bridgewater St - MASCAC
Stevens - MAC Freedom
La Roche - AMCC
Maryville - CC South
WI Superior - UMAC
Geneseo - Empire 8
Saint Joseph CT - GNAC
Neumann - AEC
Penn St. Harrisburg - UEC
Lyon - SLIAC
Occidental - SCIAC
Messiah - MAC Commonwealth
Lehman - CUNYAC
SUNY Delhi - NAC
Whitman - NWC
21 At-Large recipients to the DIII Men's Soccer Tournament (https://x.com/D3SoccerWorld/status/1987673592704774403?s=20), which is down to #31 in the Final NPI Rankings (https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46698):
Augsburg
St Olaf
Emory
Connecticut
Chicago
Bowdoin
Trinity TX
Wesleyan
Middlebury
Cortland
Williams
Gustavus Adolphus
Wheaton MA
Scranton
Hampden-Sydney
Brandeis
WI Whitewater
Amherst
Edgewood
Washington & Lee
Denison
Live Selection Show (https://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2025/11/10) about to begin...
some thoughts on the bracket...
Chicago and Wash U in same pod??? that's #8 and 9 ranked teams!
Tufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.
Something had to prevent UW Eau Claire from hosting. they are #10 and are going to #5, very similar to Chicago/Wash U conflict. UW-Whitewater is hosting (#27) and those two teams could easily be swapped if Eau Claire could host.
Trinity hosting texas pod makes sense along with two other Texas teams. the committee chose to send Whitman (#44) to Texas as the #2 seed in the pod. Makes the pod imbalanced, but Whitman was flying somewhere and this allowed them to fly someone else to meet a need.
In the end, they will only keep the top 8 from playing each other, after that, all bets are off.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 12:04:16 PMsome thoughts on the bracket...
Tufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.
I heard this morning that Tufts didn't want to host both this weekend, but are likely to do so if both the men and women make the sweet 16.
A few initial comments on Region X teams:
1. Fields/Attendance in the Trinity Pod
Get ready for complaints about Trinity's field with both men and women playing on the same field and rain currently in the forecast for the second day of games on Sunday the 16th. At least it is supposed to be dry during the week though.
The pod, however, should have strong attendance with both men's and women's teams from Trinity and Hardin-Simmons in this pod. Plus, Texas Lutheran is only 30-35 minutes away from Trinity.
2. Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Hardin-Simmons familiarity
The three Texas teams are very familiar with each other. Trinity has beaten both Texas Lutheran (1-0) and Hardin-Simmons (2-0) this season and Texas Lutheran beat Hardin-Simmons 2-0 in the opening game of the season. Trinity has a 37-7-1 all time record against Texas Lutheran and a 26-2-2 record against Hardin-Simmons and those two teams have played every year for the last five years, with Texas Lutheran winning 4 of those 5.
3. Whitman
Whitman may not have played any of these teams this year, but they did tie Colorado College from the SCAC and Mary Hardin-Baylor from the ASC back in early September, so they have some familiarity with the play in those conferences this season and with common opponents.
This trip and some of the teams, however, should be very familiar to some of the key Whitman juniors and seniors. In 2023, Whitman traveled to Texas and tied Hardin-Simmons 1-1 and lost to Trinity 3-1 (as well as losing to Southwestern 2-1). Lucas McAllister, Takahiro Hikida, Jude Clum-Stockton, and Riki Kobayashi all played minutes in those games for Whitman and so did Adam Knutsen, Luke Mayfield, Zach Anderson, Camerson Smith, Finnegan Saunders, and Ethan Chowdrey for Trinity as well as Carson Null, Jerron Garcia, Omar Estrada, Edwin Macias, and Diego Espinoza. So, if Whitman can get past Texas Lutheran, they will be facing teams and players they have played before.
3. Occidental in Minnesota
Occidental has at least two players who are very familiar with the MIAC and playing in the cold weather in Minneapolis, as well as probably access to the scouting reports from two different MIAC opponents on Augsburg.
Junior MF Elijah Edelman, who is leading the team with 11 assists and third on the team with 5 goals, transferred from Macalester to Occidental this season. While at Macalester, he started and played 80-90 minutes in all four games they played against Augsburg, including a win and a tie in 2023 and two losses in 2024. Edelman has a goal and an assist in those 4 games.
Junior D Alex Yu, who started 5 games this season for Oxy and played 8 games overall, transferred from St. Olaf's to Occidental this season. While Yu was on the squad, St. Olaf played Augsburg three times, beating them twice and tying them once. Yu is also a Minnesota native, hailing from Eden Prairie, which is a suburb of Minneapolis and about 20 minutes away from Augsburg's campus. Perhaps the Oxy players will get some home cooking and local fan support while they are in town.
They also have at least a few other players familiar with the cold weather, including freshman forwards Colton Sheffert and Ted O'Brien, both from Utah, who played 9 and 14 games, respectively, this season. Fortunately, it looks more like low to mid-50s and chance of light rain, which should be perfect weather for the bevy of players from the Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeastern states, and the UK, that dot the Oxy roster. The California natives, however, will be the ones wearing long sleeves and field player gloves.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 12:04:16 PMsome thoughts on the bracket...
Chicago and Wash U in same pod??? that's #8 and 9 ranked teams!
Lazy and bad bracketing right there. Potential conference match-up in round 2 should never happen.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 12:04:16 PMTufts and Chicago did not get to host both women and men, think only Trinity was allowed to do so.
I have to think that UChicago decided against hosting both the Men and Women. Football is on the road, but they have their Men's and Women's basketball tournaments on Saturday and Sunday.
Great stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.
https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 02:03:13 PMGreat stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.
https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag
Justin can be kind of a hot head, but he's not wrong here.
This year the 4 toughest pods based on average NPI are the UWW, Macalester, St. Olaf, and Augsburg pods.
Olaf, Mac, and Chicago are all top 8 in NPI, yet all ended up with another top 16 NPI team in their pod.
Chicago, WashU, Macalester, Olaf, Lake Forest, and UWEC are all in the top 14 NPI and will play first round opponents in the NPI top 75. Meanwhile, Wesleyan (#13), Middlebury (#15), Hobart (#16), Williams (#17), Cortland (#18), & Dickinson (#22) all play opponents outside the NPI top 100. Some by a lot.
I'm sure Oliver is also not very happy that as the NPI #3 team in the country his squad is rewarded with a first round matchup against UW-Superior, one of only two teams to beat Olaf this season. (And the one that eliminated them last season.)
The only good news is it is actually better than last year when the entire North/Midwest was in 3 pods that all flowed to the same regional. At least this year the upper Midwest will have a chance to get more than one team in the final four.
It is what it is. In the NCAA tournament you are going to have to win games against good teams to get a national title. It's frustrating that bracketing works this way, but I get it that $$ is the ultimate factor. Because of it the paths that each team faces are not equal.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 02:03:13 PMGreat stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.
https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag
Unfortunately, until the randomize the the drawing, this is what you get.
SC.
Quote from: mngopher on November 10, 2025, 03:55:33 PMQuote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2025, 02:03:13 PMGreat stuff here from the St. Olaf coach...going off on the NCAA selection.
https://x.com/justin_oliver11/status/1987929210199867637?s=46&t=0FevKR5xEJQBlFEq3_7kag
Justin can be kind of a hot head, but he's not wrong here.
This year the 4 toughest pods based on average NPI are the UWW, Macalester, St. Olaf, and Augsburg pods.
Olaf, Mac, and Chicago are all top 8 in NPI, yet all ended up with another top 16 NPI team in their pod.
Chicago, WashU, Macalester, Olaf, Lake Forest, and UWEC are all in the top 14 NPI and will play first round opponents in the NPI top 75. Meanwhile, Wesleyan (#13), Middlebury (#15), Hobart (#16), Williams (#17), Cortland (#18), & Dickinson (#22) all play opponents outside the NPI top 100. Some by a lot.
I'm sure Oliver is also not very happy that as the NPI #3 team in the country his squad is rewarded with a first round matchup against UW-Superior, one of only two teams to beat Olaf this season. (And the one that eliminated them last season.)
The only good news is it is actually better than last year when the entire North/Midwest was in 3 pods that all flowed to the same regional. At least this year the upper Midwest will have a chance to get more than one team in the final four.
It is what it is. In the NCAA tournament you are going to have to win games against good teams to get a national title. It's frustrating that bracketing works this way, but I get it that $$ is the ultimate factor. Because of it the paths that each team faces are not equal.
Or some pigs are more equal than others??!!
Some analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:
Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.
St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.
Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!
Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.
Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.
Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.
I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).
Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.
Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).
Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).
Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.
Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.
I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.
Augsburg 16-2-2 on the season are 4-0-1 against top-30 NPI teams with the tie vs #3 St. Olaf. However, they also have 2 oddball losses to Saint John's (#40 NPI but not in the NCAA tournament) losing 2-5 away and 1-2 home in the conference quarterfinals.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 12, 2025, 03:59:59 PMSome analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:
Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.
St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.
Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!
Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.
Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.
Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.
I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).
Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.
Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).
Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).
Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.
Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.
I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.
One minor correction on your discussion of Trinity. Trinity might have been classified as home team, but Christopher Newport beat them 3-2 on a neutral field, not at Trinity's home. They were playing in Abilene at Hardin-Simmons, which is obviously closer to San Antonio than Newport News is to Abilene, but still a decent bus ride away (it would be one of the longest road trips in the NESCAC not involving Hamilton). Interestingly, Trinity's one loss and one tie were both at neutral sites. They were 10-0 at home and 5-0 away, but 0-1-1 at neutral sites. Just a quirky fact I suppose.
On the broader point, while the odds are that Trinity will advance out of its pod just based on NPI rankings, the odds are against them winning in the third round if they have to travel. Trinity has not won a third round NCAA Tournament away game since 2015, when they beat Brandeis 2-0 in Amherst, MA.
The Trinity loss to CNU was also less than 24 hours after they played HSU at HSU.
Regarding those third-round losses, fair point, but let's look at the travel involved:
2024: 2,032 miles to Babson (L)
2018: 1,199 miles to UChicago (L)
2016: 2,046 miles to Tufts (L)
2015: 1,993 miles to Amherst (W, L)
2014: 1,189 miles to Wheaton (W, L)
2013: 1,159 miles to Loras (W, L)
In addition to the travel these games frequently involve weather conditions virtually impossible to prepare for in South Texas. The combination makes an already difficult task even harder.
Edit: those ar driving miles; of course the teams flew but there aren't many direct connections from San Antonio.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 12, 2025, 05:36:26 PMThe Trinity loss to CNU was also less than 24 hours after they played HSU at HSU.
Regarding those third-round losses, fair point, but let's look at the travel involved:
2024: 2,032 miles to Babson (L)
2018: 1,199 miles to UChicago (L)
2016: 2,046 miles to Tufts (L)
2015: 1,993 miles to Amherst (W, L)
2014: 1,189 miles to Wheaton (W, L)
2013: 1,159 miles to Loras (W, L)
In addition to the travel these games frequently involve weather conditions virtually impossible to prepare for in South Texas. The combination makes an already difficult task even harder.
Edit: those ar driving miles; of course the teams flew but there aren't many direct connections from San Antonio.
Totally agree, but that's the scenario that is usually at play when a Region X school advances out of their pod. They get sent to somewhere very far away and/or cold or both. So, it's not that Trinity is particularly bad at playing those 3rd round games away (Oxy lost @ Amherst in 2023, albeit in a very close game, and St. Thomas lost @ Chicago in 2022 in frigid weather), but it's not like Trinity has fared much better either.
Would not disagree (especially over the last decade). It's difficult for any Region 10 team once they get out of the confines of home.
Going back to the subject of Chicago/Wash U potentially meeting in the third round, I wouldn't rule out DePauw upsetting Chicago. DePauw is #39 in the NPI and wouldn't have qualified for the tournament if it didn't win the NCAC AQ, but it's coming into the tournament on a 10 game unbeaten streak, during which it beat Denison twice, including in the NCAC championship, and it beat a Kenyon team in the NCAC semifinals that was coming off consecutive 4-0 victories over Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan. Both of DePauw's losses - to Colorado College (8/29) and Calvin (9/27) - were in the first half of the season.
Random question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
Quote from: Mr_November on Yesterday at 10:47:12 AMRandom question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 12, 2025, 03:59:59 PMSome analysis and commentary with focus moreso on the Northeast, South and New England teams:
Midwest teams certainly have some tough 2nd round matchups. The left-half of the bracket with 5 NESCAC teams (n addition to the tough Midwest matchups) also looks challenging. Top-left quadrant with Tufts-Conn-Bowdoin means only one of those 3 teams will make it to the Final 4. Augsburg (#2) and Lynchburg (#4), conversely, seem to have the easiest road to the Final 4. I would also say #5 Emory and #13 Wesleyan have fairly easy paths to Final-4 as well.
St Olaf could face Williams in the 3rd round who I'd say are not playing great in the latter-half of the season. Williams had a big win early September at Tufts (basically their only good W of the year) but they've done nothing since a 1-0 win at Bates over a month ago. They've lost to Wesleyan, Conn, Middlebury, and Conn in the last 4 weeks with 1 GF. It's a long way of saying Williams could be the easiest opponent in the 3rd round but at the same time it's a school with strong pedigree and plenty of experience facing top teams.
Macalaster-Middlebury is another potential 3rd round match with Middlebury being another school with incredible history that has found their stride in the last 3 weeks. Minimal goals (GF) til late October but they're 4-1-0 in their last five games defeating Vassar, Bates, Williams, Bowdoin and losing in OT to Tufts with a combined 13 GF in those last 5 games with at least 2 GF in every contest. Their defense has been excellent all season with only 3 multi-GA games this year (Tufts, Vassar, and Tufts each with 2 GA). Also of note regarding Middlebury is their aptitude for earning cards: leading the NESCAC with 37 YC + 2 RC in 16 regular-season games plus another 5 YC vs Bowdoin in the playoffs and 5 more YC vs Tufts in the playoffs!!
Tufts' 2nd round would be at #26 Brandeis (granted it's only a 20 minute drive but still) who has played 8 games amongst top-80 teams with a 3-2-2 record: W @ Bridgewater, W @ Wesleyan, W @ Babson, Tie vs Wheaton, Tie vs Emory, Loss [2-3] at Chicago, and one blowout loss [0-4] at WashU. Brandeis has 5 games against Top-21 teams in which they're 1-2-2 which means they're no stranger to very good competition and they have some offense which in single-elimination goes a long way: 13 GF and 14GA in their 7 games against top-80 opponents and 8 GF - 12 GA in 5 games against top-21 teams. Tufts has solid offense and defense with only 2 multi-GA games this year (1-3 loss to Williams which was not nearly as bad a beating as the score implies, and the Tufts 3-2 comeback win vs Middlebury last weekend. Some have commented that Tufts have scored a lot of PKs this year (10 or perhaps 11 goals on 11 or 12 attempts) but most of them, I believe, have been in non-NESCAC games.
Hobart (potential 3rd round opponent for Tufts) is undefeated at 13-0-5 however most of their opponents are outside the top-100 NPI (probably 75% of Hobart's opponents are lower-ranked NPI then 80+% of Tufts opponents this year). I can't comment much on Hobart. Hobart might be an easier 3rd round for Tufts (if they get there) than their 2nd rounch match at Brandeis.
Conn-Bowdoin in the 3rd round would be tough. Conn is 8-1-2 in their 11 games since a loss vs Tufts on 9/21 (with the single loss being... Tufts [again] in the NESCAC final game on 11/9. I think any non-biased observer would say Conn is a very strong team and they've been playing very well for the last 2 months straight. Bowdoin is also playing quite well and fairly consistent in the last 5+ weeks. Since the Bowdoin 9/28 loss at Hamilton (top ~50 NPI) they've gone 6-1-2 including regular season wins over Middlebury, Wesleyan and Amherst, coupled with ties at Williams and vs Tufts, and one loss to Middlebury in the NESCAC quarterfinal. Bowdoin has the NESCAC player of the year in Senior midfield Tyler Huck (2022 rookie of year, 2023 and 2024 NESCAC 1st team) who lead the NESCAC in goals and assist for 27 points total.
I'm not as familiar with the right-half of the bracket but as I said, I think Augsburg and Lynchburg have the 2 easiest paths to the final-4. Augsburg vs Amherst as a potential 3rd round match: Amherst is nothing like what they've been in recent years. Their "scoring margin" is 3rd-worst in NESCAC (9th of 11 teams) and they are 4-5-0 in their last 9 games dating back to late September. They have an abnormally tall team (which I think is common for Amherst) and they commit a lot of fouls (tied with Middlebury at 37 YC for the regular season).
Wesleyan (lower-right quadrant) has been consistent all year. They suffered non-conference early season losses at Babson [0-1] and vs Brandeis [1-2] but Babson is NPI #63 and Brandeis is NPI #26 so they're not terrible losses. Ever since their 9/16 loss to Brandeis they are 7-2-3 with the 2 losses being vs #9 NPI Bowdoin [0-1] and #7 NPI Conn [1-2]. In that stretch they also defeated Middlebury, Amherst, Williams and Amherst and had ties at Tufts [1-1] and vs Conn [1-1]. Aside from scoring 5 goals in their 2 matches hosting Amherst, Wesleyan does not have the offensive firepower of the top-ranked NESCAC teams. They seem to eke-out a lot of low-scoring wins and ties and they only had 1 good opponent (not named Amherst) with 2 goals whereas all their other tough matchups have been 0 or 1 single goal for Wesleyan. That said, I think the Wesleyan's lower-right quadrant is the easiest of all 4 quadrants and Wesleyan's right-half bracket is easier than the left half, so Wesleyan could have the best opportunity of any NESCAC school to reach the final 4.
Emory being ranked #5 is comical to me. They're 1-1-2 vs top-30 NPI teams (only win was in August vs #29 Wash&Lee). After the W&L win, their next best win was at #46 Univ of Rochester. No way is Emory equivalent to #2 in the NESCAC! I would say Emory is behind Tufts, Conn, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Midd and they may not even be as good as Williams or Amherst. I imagine the Midwest also has several teams that are better than Emory. Emory appears to lack offense with only 5 GF in their 6 matches against top-50 NPI teams (2-1-3). Emory tied Brandeis 1-1 (Brandeis NPI #26 who Tufts would potentially face in the 2nd round).
Additionally, Lynchburg at #4 is overrated. They have not faced any top-20 NPI teams this year! They only lost 1 game all season but it was their toughest opponent #23 Hampden-Sydney [0-2]. Their best 2 wins were both against #29 Washington & Lee (late regular season away game 2-0 win; ODAC championships hosting W&L 2-1 win). Again using #26 Brandeis as a barometer, it's hard to say that Lynchburg is much better (if at all) since Brandeis actually has a win and 2 ties against top-21 teams (plus 2 losses).
Between Chicago and WashU, if one of them survives the 2nd round I would like either of them over Trinity in the 3rd round. Trinity at 15-1-1 on the season lost (as home team) to their only tough opponent #19 Christopher Newport [2-3] and tied # 73 Berry 1-1 with a loss on PKs in their conference tournament. Trinity's best win for the year was a 2-1 win as home team vs #38 Southwestern. WashU offense looked more potent early in the season but they've managed their best 2 wins of the year within the last 2 weeks at #5 Emory [1-0... again I don't think Emory is truly #5] and hosting #8 Chicago [1-0]. Aside from a weird loss on 9/5, WashU lost 2 other games within the last few weeks: 2-3 at #46 Rochester and 0-1 at #121 NYU. Against top-30 NPI they're 4-0-0 so who knows.
Chicago: they have strong SOS this year with a lot of top-100 opponents including 7 games against top-30 NPI teams in which they are 2-2-3. They also tied #45 Carnegie Mellon and #95 Hope. I'm not really sure who would be the favorite between Chicago and WashU. They met recently at St Louis where WashU won 1-0.
I would love to hear commentary from people familiar with the MN and WI teams on what you think of their current trajectory and overall strengths or weakenesses.
I don't know a ton about the WI teams, but can give a breakdown of the 4 MIAC teams. I'll start with this, Macalester is not a team anyone should want to play right now. Here are my thoughts on each MIAC team in order of how dangerous I think each is to go on a big run in the NCAAs.
Macalester - Two things have stuck out to me about this team. 1. Maina (striker) is going to be a big problem for any defense Mac faces. Had a couple very clinical finishes in the MIAC championship game, and I think he has even improved as the season has gone on. Early on he was not very consistent, but in their past 5-6 games he has been fantastic. Good luck to any defenses that have to deal with him. 2. Macalester's size is going to be as asset for them in the tournament. This is what created the most problems for St. Olaf in the MIAC title game. The Oles had a good amount of possession in the 2nd half of the game, but Macalester was getting on the end of any service into the box that was in the air. Unless there is another team with some height, it's going to be tough to beat Mac via set pieces, corners, or crosses. The scouting report on Mac is that to beat them you need to do it on the ground and through the middle of the field.
This was a top 25 program in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but has been relatively down for most of the last 10 or so years. They won 7 out of 9 MIAC titles from 1997-2005, and had a couple of nice NCAA runs in that time period.
St. Olaf - The Oles were again the most talented team in the MIAC. There are a few holdovers from the 2023 national title squad, though none who contributed to that team in a big way. Attacking is this team's strength, and they like to create 1v1 situations on the wings and then let their guys cook. They are on the smaller side, and against bigger and more physical teams they have had some issues. They can get in trouble in a game where the whistle isn't tight, which is often the case in the NCAAs. They like to push numbers forward and get defenders involved in the attack, so they can be caught with the quick counter. Fairly balanced in terms of scoring. Bechtel is probably their most dangerous player in the attack, and they'll move him around to either wing and occasionally in the center of the field as well. Center defender Olseth was a really good striker in high school so if the game situation calls for it they will move him up to the #9.
The committee did not do this team any favors. In round 1 they get the team that eliminated them last season as well as one of the two teams that beat them this season (UW-Superior). Then in the 2nd round they would get either Luther (who tied them this season, and is also the only team to hold them scoreless all season) or Lake Forest (#14 in NPI with a 19-1 record).
This year's squad has some major contributors in the sophomore class, and a couple are currently nowhere near 100%, so I don't think this will be the Oles year. Bu assuming everyone comes back, this should be a top 5 team next season with an good of a chance as anyone to win it all. (Full disclosure: I am a former Ole player from the 2000s.)
Augsburg - It starts and ends with Carver Tierney, a D1/D2 transfer who is a senior. He's been firing on all cylinders of late so he could carry them a ways. This team likes to possess the ball, but are still very direct with their attack. No a lot of outside in, they go right up the gut. This team has had problems closing out games, which I think is what will do them in. It would be one thing if it happened once, but it has happened three times in the past month where they didn't get a result when the game should have been in hand. Bethel tied them with a goal in the final ten seconds. Auggies were up 2-0 on St. Olaf with about 5 minutes to go, and that game also ended in a tie. In the MIAC quarterfinal it was 1-1 at home vs St. John's with 15 min to go and the Johnnies received 2 red cards. Even playing 11 on 9 the Auggies gave up a goal and could not find one of their own to lose 2-1. NCAA games are going to be tight, and this team has shown it can't close out close games.
Gustavus - Kind of a disappointing year for this team based on preseason expectations. Many thought it would be a battle between Olaf and Gustavus for the conference title, but the Gusties ended up 4th. Very impressive win over Chicago to open the season, but things have kind of gone downhill from there. They have some talent, but no real identity. I've watched them play 6 times and I couldn't tell you about their bread and butter. Some of this might be normal in the first year for a head coach, but because of it I would be very surprised to see them get past the 2nd round.
General comment -- All of these teams have really tough round 1/2 pods.
TL;DR Macalester has the pieces and are primed to make a run. Oles have the talent, but are a year away. Auggies have the stud striker, but blow games late. Gusties have no identity.
Quote from: VASoccerDad on Yesterday at 10:56:11 AMQuote from: Mr_November on Yesterday at 10:47:12 AMRandom question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.
OWU missed the tournament for only the 4th time in the last 49 years.
Quote from: Ejay on Yesterday at 12:48:35 PMQuote from: VASoccerDad on Yesterday at 10:56:11 AMQuote from: Mr_November on Yesterday at 10:47:12 AMRandom question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
A couple of traditional teams that I've noticed missing were Johns Hopkins and Kenyon, among others.
OWU missed the tournament for only the 4th time in the last 49 years.
Franklin & Marshall's 11 year consecutive NCAA tournament bid streak was broken this year
Quote from: Mr_November on Yesterday at 10:47:12 AMRandom question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
Not necessarily a big name, but I think teams in the NCAAs are lucky St. John's barely missed playing their way in. They beat Augsburg twice (once 5-2, and the other scoring the winning goal playing 9 on 11) and beat UW-Superior (in the NCAAs this year and made the Sweet Sixteen last year) 7-2, and played other NCAA teams close. They would have been a tough out.
Rochester seems to frequently find a way to get in, they are missing.
F & M is still the biggest shock this season.
Quote from: Mr_November on Yesterday at 10:47:12 AMRandom question for this thread...who are the biggest programs missing out on the NCAAs this year? Or even programs who had a great season but are still missing out?
One way to answer the latter question is to think about the wins against regionally ranked teams factor used under the old Selection Committee approach and apply it to a few teams that might have at least gotten a careful look under the old system (which is not the same as the teams that the NPI would have placed close to the line). The Regional Rankings we have available are through Nov. 4th, so they don't reflect the conference tournament results.
1. Teams that were undefeated but didn't make the tournament
Pfeiffer (13-0-4) (little chance) - they played all of their games against Region VI teams and didn't have a single win against a Regionally Ranked team. Maybe they get credit for beating USA South AQ NC Wesleyan, but only if USC had issued a regional ranking after the conference tournament and NC Wesleyan was elevated to being ranked
Haverford 10-0-10 (decent chance) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked teams (Rowan and TCNJ) and 4 ties (Dickinson, Muhlenberg (x2), and Gettysburg). A tie against Johns Hopkins might have looked better after Hopkins made it to the Centennial final. 2 wins and 4 ties has definitely been enough in some years, but it's not a slam dunk with all the ties, especially against some relatively weaker teams.
2. Teams losing in conference tournament finals
Colorado College (12-1-6) (decent chance) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked opponents (Texas Lutheran and DePauw) and 3 ties (Wheaton (IL), Whitman, and Mary Hardin-Baylor). Similar record to Haverford with more wins and fewer ties.
Southwestern (15-2-3) (probably falls short) - They had 1 win against a regionally ranked opponent (Texas Lutheran) and 1 tie (Mary Hardin-Baylor). They had a number of wins against teams that traditionally might have been regionally ranked (CMS, St. Thomas, Concordia TX, UCSC) but weren't at the end of this season and they lost to Trinity, their strongest opponent.
TCNJ (11-5-5) (probably falls short) - They had 1 win against a regionally ranked opponent (Montclair State) and 1 tie (Stevens) and they played several other regionally ranked opponents in a schedule that was probably harder than it initially looked as well as finished the season with bigs wins in the NJAC tournament, but the resume likely falls short
Buffalo State (12-2-5) (falls short) - 3 ties against regionally ranked opponents (Cortland, Oneonta, and Hobart), but probably falls short because they did not play a very strong schedule and they lost to Grove City, the only other team they played who made the tournament.
Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-2-5) (falls short) - Same as Buffalo State. 3 ties against regionally ranked opponents (Whitman, Colorado College, and Southwestern), but that's probably not enough, especially given the weakness of their ASC opponents.
Mount St. Vincent (14-1-2) (no chance) - no games against regionally ranked opponents
3. Others who might have had a case
Virginia Wesleyan (12-5-1) (too close to call) - They had 2 wins against regionally ranked opponents (Christopher Newport and Bridgewater) and 1 tie (Dickinson) and a pretty strong schedule where they played strong teams pretty tight. Not sure if it's enough though.
Quote from: mngopher on Yesterday at 12:31:52 PMI don't know a ton about the WI teams, but can give a breakdown of the 4 MIAC teams. I'll start with this, Macalester is not a team anyone should want to play right now. Here are my thoughts on each MIAC team in order of how dangerous I think each is to go on a big run in the NCAAs.
Macalester - Two things have stuck out to me about this team. 1. Maina (striker) is going to be a big problem for any defense Mac faces. Had a couple very clinical finishes in the MIAC championship game, and I think he has even improved as the season has gone on. Early on he was not very consistent, but in their past 5-6 games he has been fantastic. Good luck to any defenses that have to deal with him. 2. Macalester's size is going to be as asset for them in the tournament. This is what created the most problems for St. Olaf in the MIAC title game. The Oles had a good amount of possession in the 2nd half of the game, but Macalester was getting on the end of any service into the box that was in the air. Unless there is another team with some height, it's going to be tough to beat Mac via set pieces, corners, or crosses. The scouting report on Mac is that to beat them you need to do it on the ground and through the middle of the field.
All 7 of the NESCAC teams in the tourney have 15-20+ players over 6' tall on their rosters, and they all have at least 2-3 players 6'3" or taller (not including GK's). I don't know precisely how many of the tall players are starters / regular participants, but they generally have a lot of size by D3 standards. Amherst and Midd have 5-6 non-goalie players at 6'3"+.
Quote from: mngopher on Yesterday at 12:31:52 PMSt. Olaf - The Oles were again the most talented team in the MIAC. There are a few holdovers from the 2023 national title squad, though none who contributed to that team in a big way. Attacking is this team's strength, and they like to create 1v1 situations on the wings and then let their guys cook. They are on the smaller side, and against bigger and more physical teams they have had some issues. They can get in trouble in a game where the whistle isn't tight, which is often the case in the NCAAs. They like to push numbers forward and get defenders involved in the attack, so they can be caught with the quick counter. Fairly balanced in terms of scoring. Bechtel is probably their most dangerous player in the attack, and they'll move him around to either wing and occasionally in the center of the field as well. Center defender Olseth was a really good striker in high school so if the game situation calls for it they will move him up to the #9.
St Olaf would potentially face Williams and Middlebury. All NESCAC teams are big and play physical ball. Middlebury is the worst NESCAC offender when it comes to cards: 37 YC + 2 RC during 16 regular season games, plus another 10 YC in their 2 playoff games!
Quote from: camosfan on Yesterday at 01:54:54 PMF & M is still the biggest shock this season.
Maybe so for some, but not for people who have followed them for a while. Lost 9 seniors who played a substantial amount of time last year as well as some players who did not come back. Lost a lot from last year's team. Never able to generate offense other than one game. 17 games scored 16 goals. Take away the one 5 goal game, then 16 games 11 goals (.69 goal per game). Don't score goals . . .
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on Yesterday at 02:30:42 PMQuote from: camosfan on Yesterday at 01:54:54 PMF & M is still the biggest shock this season.
Maybe so for some, but not for people who have followed them for a while. Lost 9 seniors who played a substantial amount of time last year as well as some players who did not come back. Lost a lot from last year's team. Never able to generate offense other than one game. 17 games scored 16 goals. Take away the one 5 goal game, then 16 games 11 goals (.69 goal per game). Don't score goals . . .
I'll echo the same for Hopkins. They turned over a ton of guys, particularly the all-important to their system guys in the back who control their entire offense.
(Sierra and I have chronicled a lot of this over in the MA thread this season.)
While not as impressive a run as the Diplomats, this is the first November without dancing since 2016 (8 consecutive tournaments.) That 2016 miss was due to a loss to F&M in PKs in the CC finals. That season marked the first true sign that Appleby had the Jays turned in the right direction.
Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 02:10:12 PMOne way to answer the latter question is to think about the wins against regionally ranked teams factor used under the old Selection Committee approach and apply it to a few teams that might have at least gotten a careful look under the old system (which is not the same as the teams that the NPI would have placed close to the line). The Regional Rankings we have available are through Nov. 4th, so they don't reflect the conference tournament results.
Oooh, fun game.
University College (8-5-3) - Very good schedule, but only 2 of 8 wins vs. regionally ranked teams. Combined team record of remaining 6 wins was 35-44-20. Lost in QF of conference tournament to team that lost in Semi-Final of said tournament.
Two games on Friday (involving teams that need to play Friday-Saturday rather than Saturday-Sunday, for religious reasons)
I think this game could be interesting
Calvin (NPI #37) v. Grove City (NPI #50) @ Hobart Friday at 1:30 pm EST
Calvin is 16-3-1 and a traditional power. Grove City is 15-2-2, but it is definitely not a traditional power. This is its first PAC championship in two decades and the PAC isn't exactly a top league. Nevertheless, there are reasons to wonder if Grove City can surprise here. First, Grove City is hot. It's coming in on a 10 game winning streak and a 15 game unbeaten streak and has 12 shutouts overall this season. Second, Grove City has shown that it is competitive with teams that have NCAA experience and/or are in stronger conferences. It tied Carnegie Mellon 1-1 in early September and it beat Buffalo State 1-0 in mid-September in one of the few games where a team held Buffalo State's Diego Rivera (the D3 Men's Soccer golden boot winner during the regular season this year) off the scoresheet and without a shot on goal. Third, Calvin and Grove City have one common opponent - Hope - and both Calvin and Grove City beat it by the identical 2-0 score. Finally, Grove City and Calvin actually played against each other this season on 9/20 in Grand Rapids, Michigan and the game was called on account of lightening after 57 minutes. Calvin was winning 1-0 at the time, but I found a few highlights of the game (https://fan.hudl.com/usa/pa/grove-city/organization/22988/grove-city-college/team/83553/mens-varsity-soccer/watch?hr=SGlnaGxpZ2h0UmVlbFN1bW1hcnk2OGQwNWUxNDFiNjM3YjAyNmI0M2EyOGE%3D&ot=TEAM&oi=83553) (from a Grove City perspective) and it looked like both teams had some chances. Although that game was almost two months ago, neither team is going to come into this game flying blind and, most importantly from the perspective of the underdog, Grove City will likely not be in awe of Calvin given that experience going toe-to-toe with them earlier in the season. One player on Grove City to watch might be Aidan Eck, a senior midfielder. He's not the leading scorer, but he is on a hot streak of his own, scoring goals in 5 of the last 6 games.
Loads of responses! JHU, F&M, Kenyon, OWU, VA Wesleyan, St. John's, Haverford, Buffalo State, Pfeiffer, and many others miss out on the NCAAs this year.
Kuiper - thank you for the detailed breakdown. Very interesting read accompanying each program you listed
Love these back stories, keep them coming! Thanks for all the time you put in here!
Quote from: LibbyMoore on Today at 09:35:08 AMLove these back stories, keep them coming! Thanks for all the time you put in here!
If you want more back stories on the Calvin - Grove City game, Eli Ribbe, who has been an assistant coach at Grove City for the last four seasons, graduated from Calvin, where he was a three year captain of Calvin's JV soccer team.
Here's a great story from the Calvin school newspaper (https://calvinchimes.org/2021/11/07/jv-soccer-makes-the-most-of-five-game-season/) about the experience of playing JV that includes several quotes from Ribbe, who also graduated summa cum laude from Calvin. His connection may be how Grove City came to travel to Michigan to play Calvin and Hope for the first time ever this season, and also puts non-varsity teams in a positive light, which isn't a perspective you often hear.
Does anyone know whether it was a foul or an offside call in the build up to the Messiah goal? If offsides—that makes sense. If a foul—then the center can't rely on his AR to call that back correct?
Quote from: D3SoccerTalker on Today at 11:48:00 AMDoes anyone know whether it was a foul or an offside call in the build up to the Messiah goal? If offsides—that makes sense. If a foul—then the center can't rely on his AR to call that back correct?
The play-by-play on the NCAA website lists it as a foul.
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 11:54:41 AMQuote from: D3SoccerTalker on Today at 11:48:00 AMDoes anyone know whether it was a foul or an offside call in the build up to the Messiah goal? If offsides—that makes sense. If a foul—then the center can't rely on his AR to call that back correct?
The play-by-play on the NCAA website lists it as a foul.
It seemed as though legs got tangled at the top of the box. I replayed it a few times and I think this call could have gone either way, but it was probably the correct call. There might have been a slight push as well but couldn't see from the angle given by the camera.
HALFTIME: Hobart 0-0 Messiah
Messiah had a disallowed goal and a quality shot from #10 that smacked the post and bounced out. Hobart had a good chance as well from around the PK spot. Shot was on frame and on the ground toward the far post but Messiah keeper made a good save.
This is a tight contest so far and I could see it going either way. Messiah have probably had better looks and are pressing Hobart well. Hobart, on the other hand, look dangerous every time they go forward. They've been able to break Messiah's press at times through their crafty dribblers.
As to whether a center can "rely on" his AR to call it back, the CR, not the AR, makes the ultimate call, but there's nothing that prevents the CR from consulting his AR about a possible foul.
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 10:03:25 AMQuote from: LibbyMoore on Today at 09:35:08 AMLove these back stories, keep them coming! Thanks for all the time you put in here!
If you want more back stories on the Calvin - Grove City game, Eli Ribbe, who has been an assistant coach at Grove City for the last four seasons, graduated from Calvin, where he was a three year captain of Calvin's JV soccer team.
Here's a great story from the Calvin school newspaper (https://calvinchimes.org/2021/11/07/jv-soccer-makes-the-most-of-five-game-season/) about the experience of playing JV that includes several quotes from Ribbe, who also graduated summa cum laude from Calvin. His connection may be how Grove City came to travel to Michigan to play Calvin and Hope for the first time ever this season, and also puts non-varsity teams in a positive light, which isn't a perspective you often hear.
The Calvin/Grove City game is also a family affair. Older brother Athan Ladas (Calvin) faces his younger brother Luke Ladas (Grove City).
Huh. Seems odd there's only one game today. Is it just me?
Quote from: ExiledInTexas on Today at 12:29:20 PMQuote from: Kuiper on Today at 10:03:25 AMQuote from: LibbyMoore on Today at 09:35:08 AMLove these back stories, keep them coming! Thanks for all the time you put in here!
If you want more back stories on the Calvin - Grove City game, Eli Ribbe, who has been an assistant coach at Grove City for the last four seasons, graduated from Calvin, where he was a three year captain of Calvin's JV soccer team.
Here's a great story from the Calvin school newspaper (https://calvinchimes.org/2021/11/07/jv-soccer-makes-the-most-of-five-game-season/) about the experience of playing JV that includes several quotes from Ribbe, who also graduated summa cum laude from Calvin. His connection may be how Grove City came to travel to Michigan to play Calvin and Hope for the first time ever this season, and also puts non-varsity teams in a positive light, which isn't a perspective you often hear.
The Calvin/Grove City game is also a family affair. Older brother Athan Ladas (Calvin) faces his younger brother Luke Ladas (Grove City).
I missed that! Love it. The crazy thing is that the two are from Parsippany Hills (or maybe Morris Plains), New Jersey. They had to by-pass a lot of DIII men's soccer programs to end up at Calvin and Grove City.
Quote from: Hopkins92 on Today at 12:44:03 PMHuh. Seems odd there's only one game today. Is it just me?
Two games. Grove City v. Calvin is next.
It's because Calvin and Messiah can't play on Sundays, so they had the Hobart pod be the Friday/Saturday pod
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 12:47:10 PMQuote from: Hopkins92 on Today at 12:44:03 PMHuh. Seems odd there's only one game today. Is it just me?
Two games. Grove City v. Calvin is next.
It's because Calvin and Messiah can't play on Sundays, so they had the Hobart pod be the Friday/Saturday pod
Yeah, I meant only one pod... very poor wording. I feel like in years past we've had more games on Friday. Probably some Mandela-effect thing for me.
Quote from: Hopkins92 on Today at 12:59:54 PMQuote from: Kuiper on Today at 12:47:10 PMQuote from: Hopkins92 on Today at 12:44:03 PMHuh. Seems odd there's only one game today. Is it just me?
Two games. Grove City v. Calvin is next.
It's because Calvin and Messiah can't play on Sundays, so they had the Hobart pod be the Friday/Saturday pod
Yeah, I meant only one pod... very poor wording. I feel like in years past we've had more games on Friday. Probably some Mandela-effect thing for me.
I'm sort of surprised the Trinity pod isn't Friday-Saturday because of Hardin-Simmons. It started on Friday in 2024 and I assumed that was because of Hardin-Simmons, but H-S did play in the ASC Championship game on a Sunday in 2024.
Messiah 1 - Hobart 0 OT
Messiah gets the golden goal in the 3rd minute of OT, working the ball around the box in Messiah fashion and then putting in a ball from the left side from a seemingly impossible angle that got to the back post.
Hobart departs from the Yet to Lose club.
Fair result. Messiah was slow getting off the bus. Other than that looked to be the better team to me.
Something tells me this is the first of many lower NPI victories.
Quote from: Freddyfud on Today at 01:29:02 PMSomething tells me this is the first of many lower NPI victories.
There are always upsets, but the one thing the NPI ignores entirely that the selection committee approach used to take into account was how a team was playing coming into the tournament. That wouldn't have changed Hobart's standing, but Messiah's early results were a drag on their ranking in the way that didn't reflect their later performances.
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 01:35:58 PMQuote from: Freddyfud on Today at 01:29:02 PMSomething tells me this is the first of many lower NPI victories.
There are always upsets, but the one thing the NPI ignores entirely that the selection committee approach used to take into account was how a team was playing coming into the tournament. That wouldn't have changed Hobart's standing, but Messiah's early results were a drag on their ranking in the way that didn't reflect their later performances.
Yea I wanted to say many more upsets but paused to think about how an upset should be defined given the Committee's selections. So landed on NPI? I dunno...
My post keeps getting eaten.
Fair result, at least what I watched. Hobart had a sequence late in the 2nd where the ball was pinballing around for at least 3 shot attempts... Dicey moment for Messiah.
I don't think I've ever seen a Messiah team turn the ball over so cheaply before. I don't mean giving it up under pressure; I mean passing the ball to Hobart under zero pressure.
Messiah's goal was very, very nice.
Messiah's win was their first ever at Hobart. They've played just 4 times, 2-2, with no game decided by more than one goal. I still remember their very first meeting, when Hobart beat the defending national champions in Grantham, 2-1 in OT, in a game that Hobart dominated right from the start. (Though it certainly helped the visitors when AA striker Josh Wood went down early with a major injury, they'd probably have won anyway.)
The only previous time the Falcons went to Geneva was another opening game, in 2019, when Hobart won 1-0. That year the Falcons were 18-3-2, with 2 of the Ls coming vs Liberty League teams. RIT beat them, 3-2 in OT, in a third-round game in Amherst.
Congrats to Hobart on one of their best seasons ever.
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on Today at 02:01:26 PMMessiah's goal was very, very nice.
The one that hit the post earlier was even nicer. ;)
Congrats to Messiah on the OT win today. You broke the Statesmen's hearts ,but frankly looked like the better team from the opening of the second half. No dishonor in losing to any Messiah team, but it still hurts after a "no loss" regular season.
FINAL: Calvin 1 - Grove City 0 (2OT)
Calvin scores a golden goal in the second minute of double OT on a great dribbling foray that led to a pass to the right winger who crosses it back to the striker in front of goal for the easy shot. Grove City was on the front foot in the 1st OT and looked like they might take it, but this was a pretty even game overall.
Should be a fun second round game between Messiah and Calvin
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 12:47:10 PMIt's because Calvin and Messiah can't play on Sundays, so they had the Hobart pod be the Friday/Saturday pod
Calvin doesn't play on Sundays. Messiah doesn't schedule regular season games on Sundays, either, but years ago they told the NCAA they were willing to play post-season games on Sundays. Indeed, this weekend the Messiah women are hosting a Saturday-Sunday pod. Grove City might be in the same category as Calvin; I don't know.
That was a super fun 1-0 game. End to end. Congratulations to both teams!