Worked a few hours tonight to come up with a bracket guess, here's what I learned...
Lyon College (SLIAC) is over 500 miles from any host site. I sent them to Chicago (555 miles) and predict that the NCAA will allow that exception vs. finding flights for them given the uncertainty in air travel.
Augsburg and St. Olaf as top 4 seeds makes it hard to fill out a bracket and limit travel. there's not enough midwest teams in the bracket to fill 8 groups of 4. I ended up moving Lake Forest (lowest seeded midwest team) out of hosting and pulled Dickinson in as a host to help balance travel.
West coast teams are flying to the midwest.
Texas pod needs a #2 seed and I sent Amherst there. I think it's likely a NESCAC school (like Bowdoin went last year) as otherwise you likely end up with two NESCAC schools in one pod.
I still had to fly Messiah to Minneapolis to fill it all out. I doubt the NCAA does that extra flight but it's hard to see how to get everyone to under 500 miles travel with the host site conflicts and the imbalance created by the top seeds.
Take a look and let me know how you would make it better..
2025 bracket guess (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13KGuthcLCQCMbZvfUaNMmIhdwFqUVdKxIMCAwFiMjEs/edit?usp=sharing)
No improvements from me. Appreciate seeing what this bracket could look like It's a very complex puzzle. I think you hit the nail on the head with all the northern/upper Midwest hosts — that makes it very difficult to avoid flights, and I'm curious how that will be handled.
Quote from: mngopher on November 09, 2025, 07:52:24 PMNo improvements from me. Appreciate seeing what this bracket could look like It's a very complex puzzle. I think you hit the nail on the head with all the northern/upper Midwest hosts — that makes it very difficult to avoid flights, and I'm curious how that will be handled.
I think these 1st weekend combinations are pretty much perfect. As for the overall, I don't think they will have the four seeded NESCAC teams all in the same quadrant. I'm guessing two NESCAC schools will be with Tufts and the other two will be in the Lynchburg quadrant(with Amherst getting shipped to Tx)
thanks, I had a friend say the same about NESCAC. I'm going to adjust now to move some pods between regions. Move Middlebury pod over and bring Wesleyan pod to tufts region...and move Hobart pod to tufts region and move out the Bowdoin pod. It's a good observation.
But don't all the conference opponents get separated in the first round?
Yes for the first round game, just the first game. technically, you can play a conference opponent in the second game on the first weekend, but usually they don't bracket that to happen.
It's NCAA Power Index, not NESCAC Protection Index. If you're going to get a whole bunch of teams as a result of NPI then you probably shouldn't be complaining when you have to play each other early on.
Here's the section on Bracketing Principles from the Pre-Championship Manual (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/common/2025-26D3XSO_PreChampsManual.pdf)
QuoteThe following bracketing principles will be in effect for the next two years (2024-25 and 2025-26) to assess its financial
impact and success in protecting top-seeded teams.
1. Protection of top-eight seeded teams in the bracket.
In brackets greater than 32 teams, teams will be protected based on the seed lines of No. 1s and No. 2s (based on NPI
ranking at the time of selection).
a. NPI rank 1-4 will be No. 1s. NPI rank 5-8 will be No. 2s.
b. No. 1s and No. 2s will be bracketed based on quarterfinal matchups providing a possibility that the top eight (8)
teams could each advance to the round of eight.
c. No. 1s and No. 2s will be paired in the quarterfinals based on current bracketing principles (i.e., geographic
proximity is maintained).
Brackets will be built outward based on protecting the quarterfinal matchups that will protect No. 1s and No. 2s
while maintaining geographic proximity.
2. Remaining teams will continue to be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity. Teams shall then
be paired according to geographic proximity. A team may be moved to numerically balance the bracket if geographic
proximity is maintained. Teams shall be paired and eligible according to geographic proximity (within 500 miles). An
exception may be granted when there are not enough teams within the 500-mile radius to fill the region. Geographic
proximity shall take precedence over seeding for teams below the top-8 seeds.
3. Teams from the same conference shall not play one another in the first round.
4. The highest-seeded team that meets all selection criteria shall be selected as the host institutions, provided that
geographic proximity is maintained and they meet all site selection criteria.
Yep those are the ones I followed in making the bracket guess. Basically, after you place first four and second four...it's all about geography and building pods based on host sites. We can't know all the host sites so we're unable to get it completely right, but doing this helped highlight some challenges that will be present in the bracket. Also makes it more fun to watch the reveal tomorrow.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2025, 07:18:09 PMLyon College (SLIAC) is over 500 miles from any host site. I sent them to Chicago (555 miles) and predict that the NCAA will allow that exception vs. finding flights for them given the uncertainty in air travel.
The only school in the SLIAC that cannot bus to a host site in the first season they are eligible goes and wins the AQ.
I cannot remember ever seeing an exception for something like 555 miles, but with the shutdown...
Calvin would be a flight to anywhere in Minnesota if you want to label that a flight.
Otherwise, thanks for sharing.
Thanks, I didn't notice Calvin's travel distance (over 500 to UW Eau Claire who hosts that pod with GA). Swapped them with Depauw (who is exactly 500 miles from UWEC). Also saw that I had Stevens outside of range so swapped them with otterbein which made great sense too.
FYI, gov't shutdown most likely done.
Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2025, 10:07:26 PMCalvin's travel distance (over 500 to UW Eau Claire who hosts that pod with GA). Swapped them with Depauw (who is exactly 500 miles from UWEC).
Eau Claire and DePauw are 501 miles away according to Google Maps and the now behind the paywall NCAA Mileage Calculator always seemed to add a mile or two.
Quote from: stlawus on November 09, 2025, 08:41:27 PMIt's NCAA Power Index, not NESCAC Protection Index. If you're going to get a whole bunch of teams as a result of NPI then you probably shouldn't be complaining when you have to play each other early on.
I was actually thinking of the problem of UAA and Minnesota schools!
Hmm, Trinity(TX) women are 17, which wouldn't normally get to host but there are three teams in Texas that need to play somewhere (Trinity, McMurry (82), Hardin-Simmons (57)) just like the men. If women truly have priority it could upset the apple cart. Will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles this tomorrow because either you let someone who really shouldn't host (like Hardin-Simmons in the women's case, TLU in the men's, ASSUMING EITHER SUBMITTED A BID) host or you are going to fly three teams somewhere.
Given the way the NCAA pinches pennies my bet is on the former option.
Agree with you Ron, think the NCAA has no choice but to have a Texas pod in both womens and mens brackets. How they figure out hosting is likely someone in NCAA getting two AD's on the phone with where they want to go and asking them to host. You could see this coming last week though and I know the NCAA was talking with host sites earlier so it's probably already figured out.
They certainly aren't adding three flights to either bracket when quality local host sites are there to use.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 09, 2025, 11:35:25 PMHmm, Trinity(TX) women are 17, which wouldn't normally get to host but there are three teams in Texas that need to play somewhere (Trinity, McMurry (82), Hardin-Simmons (57)) just like the men. If women truly have priority it could upset the apple cart. Will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles this tomorrow because either you let someone who really shouldn't host (like Hardin-Simmons in the women's case, TLU in the men's, ASSUMING EITHER SUBMITTED A BID) host or you are going to fly three teams somewhere.
Given the way the NCAA pinches pennies my bet is on the former option.
Can Texas Lutheran even host on campus given that their field is open access and can't easily prevent people from watching without paying? They appeared to be the "host" of the SCAC Conference Championships in terms of hosting LiveStats etc, but they were held at the Round Rock complex, which is over an hour north of Texas Lutheran.
Could just use a local high school football field that have soccer markings. They are generally gated off.
Quote from: Kuiper on November 10, 2025, 09:49:12 AMQuote from: Ron Boerger on November 09, 2025, 11:35:25 PMHmm, Trinity(TX) women are 17, which wouldn't normally get to host but there are three teams in Texas that need to play somewhere (Trinity, McMurry (82), Hardin-Simmons (57)) just like the men. If women truly have priority it could upset the apple cart. Will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles this tomorrow because either you let someone who really shouldn't host (like Hardin-Simmons in the women's case, TLU in the men's, ASSUMING EITHER SUBMITTED A BID) host or you are going to fly three teams somewhere.
Given the way the NCAA pinches pennies my bet is on the former option.
Can Texas Lutheran even host on campus given that their field is open access and can't easily prevent people from watching without paying? They appeared to be the "host" of the SCAC Conference Championships in terms of hosting LiveStats etc, but they were held at the Round Rock complex, which is over an hour north of Texas Lutheran.
I think the year was '08 when I was at Medaille. We applied to host but our home field wasn't eligible at the time as there was no locker rooms (played at an off sight facility). We got a first round bye think there was only 60 teams that year. Anyways we played round of 32 game against Nazareth at University at Buffalo Football Stadium. They don't have Men's Soccer anymore- we played on the turf field but they also had a grass field outside the stadium.
Great insight Kuiper, don't think that would meet the NCAA standards, but wasn't aware of the local set-up. The NCAA does state that the team must have played over half of their games on the field that they plan to use. That's how schools with two fields plan ahead to have the chance to host both, they schedule the teams to use both fields enough to qualify. Chicago and Tufts will likely host both men and women this next weekend through this. Still think NCAA finds a way to put both men and women Texas pod together though.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 09, 2025, 11:35:25 PMHmm, Trinity(TX) women are 17, which wouldn't normally get to host but there are three teams in Texas that need to play somewhere (Trinity, McMurry (82), Hardin-Simmons (57)) just like the men. If women truly have priority it could upset the apple cart. Will be interesting to see how the NCAA handles this tomorrow because either you let someone who really shouldn't host (like Hardin-Simmons in the women's case, TLU in the men's, ASSUMING EITHER SUBMITTED A BID) host or you are going to fly three teams somewhere.
Given the way the NCAA pinches pennies my bet is on the former option.
Is it not allowed to have both men and women host at the same time, or just something that is avoided wherever possible?
Trinity has lights at their field if I recall correctly. It would be a long day, but the first men's game could kick off at 10am then first women's game at 5pm.
Double hosting might be a problem at some of the more rural small schools just getting hotel arrangements for 4 teams, but I'd guess it would not be an issue in San Antonio.
Quote from: mngopher on November 10, 2025, 10:09:05 AMIs it not allowed to have both men and women host at the same time, or just something that is avoided wherever possible?
Trinity has lights at their field if I recall correctly. It would be a long day, but the first men's game could kick off at 10am then first women's game at 5pm.
Double hosting might be a problem at some of the more rural small schools just getting hotel arrangements for 4 teams, but I'd guess it would not be an issue in San Antonio.
Trinity does have lights. It has never double hosted to my recollection, and they often have teams good enough to do so if it was an option. Also, it's a grass field; while well-maintained, that would be a lot of wear and tear in a short period of time, especially should it decide to rain at some point.
The NCAA guidelines are in here is anyone wants to read up - NCAA selection guidelines (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/common/2025-26D3XSO_PreChampsManual.pdf)
Here's the important language: (page 20)
CRITERIA
The Division III Championships Committee has prioritized the site-selection criteria in the following order for Division III championships:
1. Quality and availability of the facility and other necessary accommodations.
2. Geographical location (including such factors as rotation of sites, weather conditions, accessibility and
transportation costs).
3. Attendance history and revenue potential, which shall be considered necessary to assure fiscal responsibility.
4. Hosts will be selected based on meeting the minimum hosting requirements and maintaining geographic proximity.
Seeding may be a consideration when selecting hosts but is not determinative.
In addition, the soccer committees include the following site-selection deliberations:
● Preference is given to grass/grass-like surfaces; and
● The potential host must have played the majority of its home games on the field it is submitting for
consideration.
A competing institution that cannot charge admission at its home facility and/or cannot establish a barrier to separate the spectators from the field of play, and/or does not have a field that meets minimum-size requirements (70 yards x 115 yards) may not serve as host.
Maybe they've put up barriers since the last time I saw it, but traditionally people brought lawn chairs and umbrellas and sat by the sidelines. It wouldn't explain why the SCAC championship was held at a different site, but maybe it was more convenient for multiple teams.
I believe the barrier thing is to keep people from getting in / watching without paying rather than actually physically separating attendees from the field.
Trinity women are hosting the Texas pod (along with Cal Lutheran who is the top seed in the pod).
Edit: so are the men. Color me stunned.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 10, 2025, 11:03:52 AMI believe the barrier thing is to keep people from getting in / watching without paying rather than actually physically separating attendees from the field.
from what I recall at Amherst they just had a rope like barrier around the field but there was no fencing or other barriers to prevent attendees from watching without paying
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 10, 2025, 09:58:31 AMCould just use a local high school football field that have soccer markings. They are generally gated off.
Seguin High School is the only school in the area- I attended there a couple of years back in the late 80's. I'm sure a lot has changed, but back then soccer played on a grass field adjacent to the stadium. And Texas Lutheran was known as Texas Lutheran College (TLC). Looking at the high school schedule from last year, it does look like they play at "Matador Stadium"- which is the HS football stadium.