With starting the final chapter of the season (the NCAA tournament), I thought I would start a new topic since we are not really focused on the top 25 anymore but watching how the tournament unfolds.
The NCAA protects the top 8 teams (based on the final (Selections) NPI ranking) meaning that no team in the top 8 will face another top 8 team until the 'elite 8' round (4th round or sectional final games).
This year #1 Wash U is paired in their section with #8 Messiah (second year in a row for this pairing). #2 Emory is paired in their section with #6 Wash & Lee. #3 Tufts is paired with #7 Williams, and #4 Chicago is paired with #5 Case Western.
Interestingly, last year (2024), of the 'protected' top 8 teams only 2 teams (Wash U and Christopher Newport) even made it to the sectional finals.
This year the lowest NPI ranked team in the tournament is Wis-Superior at #227 with an NPI of 49.130.
Last year, in 2024, the lowest NPI ranked team was John Jay at #244 with an NPI of 48.844.
Both of these, obviously, were a result of earning an automatic qualifier (AQ) for winning their conference championships.
Lake Forest is one of 16 hosts for this weekends opening round in the NCAA tournament by virtue of being #12 in the NPI rankings. They are the only team in the tournament this year without a loss or tie.
However, for the entire year they were never listed in the United Soccer Coaches Top 25 poll. In the most recent poll (National - Poll 9 - November 4, 2025) they are shown as the last team for "Also receiving votes:" Their best win, based on the NPI values, was against MSOE ranked #69 with an NPI of 55.586 and their second best win was against North Park at #117 with an NPI of 53.394. All of their other wins were against teams with much lower rankings and values yet Lake Forest's current NPI value is 62.308.
The United Soccer Coaches looked at Lake Forest and determined that their strength of schedule wasn't strong enough to put them in the top 25, but the NPI system has them as the 12th best team in the country!
This might be the best example that the NPI ranking system or formula may have some shortcomings and have room for some improvements in identifying or ranking the best teams. I guess this weekend may give us a better read on which ranking was more accurate.
For the first time in 18 years, the NCAA tournament is without William Smith! Last year they were in the National Championship game against Wash U and now this year is the first year since 2006 they will not be playing in the tournament.
After 44 seasons with Coach Wilber as the head coach, I think it was just so challenging to transition to a new coach without some bumps along the way. Hopefully they will be back in the tournament next year.
Can't imagine having to follow the legend - but the coach who replaced Wilber never won a regular season MIAC championship in 13 years leading Gustavus, and only made the NCAAs once during that time and lost in the first round. Time will tell if this year was a hiccup or the start of a trend.
Tournament Trivia Tidbit:
There have been 17 different D3 women's soccer teams to win a National Championship. Out of those 17, nine made it into this year's tournament ...
The nine that made it are (most recent year won in parantheses, note: 2020 was covid):
1. Wash U (2024)
2. Cal Lutheran (2023)
3. Johns Hopkins (2022)
4. Christopher Newport (2021)
5. Messiah (2019)
6. Williams (2018)
7. Hardin-Simmons (2010)
8. Cortland (1992)
9. Rochester (1987)
Quote from: CentPA on November 13, 2025, 04:30:42 PMTournament Trivia Tidbit:
There have been 17 different D3 women's soccer teams to win a National Championship. Out of those 17, nine made it into this year's tournament ...
The nine that made it are (most recent year won in parantheses, note: 2020 was covid):
1. Wash U (2024)
2. Cal Lutheran (2023)
3. Johns Hopkins (2022)
4. Christopher Newport (2021)
5. Messiah (2019)
6. Williams (2018)
7. Hardin-Simmons (2010)
8. Cortland (1992)
9. Rochester (1987)
For those wondering — the 8 that didn't make it are:
1. Lynchburg (2014)
2. William Smith (2013)
3. Wheaton(IL) (2007)
4. Oneonta (2003)
5. Ohio Wesleyan (2002)
6. TCNJ (2000)
7. Macalester (1998)
8. Ithaca (1991)
FYI: there are technically 18 D3 women's soccer teams that have won a National Championship, but I did not include UC San Diego since they are no longer in D3. They did win five National Championships in D3 Women's soccer before moving to D1 (1989, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1999).
And today it begins!
At 1pm (EST): Illinois Tech (NPI = 62.728, ranked #11) takes on Grove City (NPI = 56.227, ranked #66)
At 3:30pm (EST): host Calvin (NPI = 60.630, ranked #23) takes on Penn St-Behrend (NPI = 58.394, ranked # 45)
These are the only two games today in the women's tournament.
Tournament Trivia Tidbit:
The average NPI values of the 16 teams in each of the four sections in the tournament are (ranked from highest to lowest):
Wash U sectional: 59.619 average NPI
Emory sectional: 59.178 average NPI
Chicago sectional: 58.964 average NPI
Tufts sectional: 58.911 average NPI
Not sure that this means anything!
I was a little impressed that only 0.708 separate the "hardest" sectional from the "easiest" sectional which seams to indicate that there is not a noticeable easy or hard route to the final four.??
The second half of the (host) Calvin vs Penn St - Behrend has been really good soccer - very exciting to watch.
Calvin currently leads 1-0 with 28 minutes left and has the better play in the second half.
Some really good runs of play, great passing, good shots, and nice saves all in about 18 minutes.
Illinois Tech wins the early game today over Grove City 1-0.
Calvin beats Penn St - Behrend 1-0 in the second game. So Calvin (NPI 60.630 ranked #23) will take on Illinois Tech (NPI 62.728 ranked #11) tomorrow at 3pm (EST).
I watched most of the second half of the Calvin vs Penn St game which was very entertaining. The shots for the game were even 16-16 with Calvin leading in shots on goal 8-6.
Illinois Tech may have their hands full tomorrow.
Probably the biggest upset of the women's tournament so far .. Penn State Harrisburg beats Christopher Newport 2-1 scoring the winning goal with just 4 minutes left in regulation.
CWRU obliterated Rose-Hulman 5-0 in round one.
CWRU plays Swarthmore today.
Can anyone give me a preview?
The only two teams to beat Messiah this year played each other tonight and Penn State Harrisburg (NPI #71) upsets Rowan (NPI #21) 1-0 scoring the lone goal with less than two minutes left in the game.
Quote from: CentPA on November 16, 2025, 08:03:47 PMThe only two teams to beat Messiah this year played each other tonight and Penn State Harrisburg (NPI #71) upsets Rowan (NPI #21) 1-0 scoring the lone goal with less than two minutes left in the game.
What's crazy is that Harrisburg is probably going to be the host of that sectional. Tufts has the men hosting, and neither Mary Washington nor Middlebury can get teams there without 2 flights, while PSU can do it without any.
It looks like Messiah will be hosting the Wash U sectional games on Friday and Saturday due to the Wash U men hosting and Calvin being one of the teams playing.
Here are the top 16 NPI teams that did not make the "sweet 16" in the tournament:
#5 Case Western
#7 Williams
#10 Christopher Newport
#11 Illinois Tech
#12 Lake Forest
The teams that take their place are:
#18 MIT
#20 Swarthmore
#39 Mary Washington
#52 Calvin
#71 Penn State-Harrisburg
The CWRU Lady Spartans definitely fell flat. Couldn't win in two overtimes despite a one player advantage.
And then completely BOLO'ed the penalty kicks. Swarthmore deserved to make the Sweet 16. I hope that they go on to win it all!
Quote from: DagarmanSpartan on November 18, 2025, 09:47:42 AMSwarthmore deserved to make the Sweet 16. I hope that they go on to win it all!
You rather have Swarthmore win the championship than Chicago, Emory or Washington University?
I kinda get it...
I would bet a lot of money on UChicago advancing to the Final 4 though.
For the Wash U sectional it will end up being a showdown of the top two teams in that section tomorrow as Wash U will take on Messiah.
I assume with Wash U being the higher ranked team that Wash U will again be in their home white kits and Messiah will play in their away navy kits. I am not sure if that means Messiah has to use the left of the scorer's table being the "away" team or whether they will remain on the right where they normally are at Shoemaker field.??
Strange scene - because Wash U is technically the home team at Messiah University they get to where their home white kits and Messiah wears their away navy kits. Even stranger, for the first time that I am aware of, Messiah moves to the other side of the scorer's table at their home field and warms up on the opposite side of the field ... definitely a strange look/feel.
Wash U wins the game scoring the only goal with 2 minutes left in the first OT period on a ball bouncing around in front of the goal after a corner kick. Messiah is the only team this year to keep Wash U off the board through 90 minutes of soccer but it is still not enough and now Wash U has gone through 50 opponents without a loss going back to the championship game from 2023 when they lost to California Lutheran.
This is the first year in at least ten years that the top team in each section made it to the final four .. the number 1, 2, 3, and 4 teams in the final NPI ranking made it to the final four.
We will see #1 Wash U playing #4 Chicago and #2 Emory playing #3 Tufts next weekend.
There are three USC All Americans playing in this year's final four:
1. Grace Ehlert, Wash U (1st team 2024)
2. Elsi Aires, Tufts (2nd team 2024 and 3rd team 2023)
3. Kaitlyn Nimmer, Emory (4th team 2024)
Note: Caroline Kelly, Tufts (3rd team 2024) appears to be injured and not able to play.
Less than a week away until the year end UAA conference tournament .. sorry I meant the NCAA Final Four! ;D
I forgot Tufts is crashing the all UAA final four and I'm sure has a thing or two they would like to say.
Besides Tufts it is all UAA with Wash U, Emory, and Chicago.
The only one of these four teams to have won a National Championship is of course Wash U (2016 & 2024).
Well, as a grad of a UAA school that didn't make it, I hope that the national champion ends up being ONE of our UAA brethren!
With the men's teams from Tufts and Emory in the Final Four as well, it's certainly an exciting time for the soccer programs at those schools! I don't know how early the teams will be down in Salem and how long they are staying, but it's also a chance for the men's and women's teams (and/or parents and fans) to support each other at their games, which always makes it more fun. Some schools have started doing men's and women's doubleheaders for that reason.
Quote from: Kuiper on November 28, 2025, 11:58:43 AMWith the men's teams from Tufts and Emory in the Final Four as well, it's certainly an exciting time for the soccer programs at those schools! I don't know how early the teams will be down in Salem and how long they are staying, but it's also a chance for the men's and women's teams (and/or parents and fans) to support each other at their games, which always makes it more fun. Some schools have started doing men's and women's doubleheaders for that reason.
I forgot about the Tufts and Emory men's teams! That has got to be such a cool experience for the families/friends. It would be fun if the fans would coordinate (and maybe they do) and all stay at the same hotel. You could possibly have a Tufts hotel and an Emory hotel filled up with all the supporters.
Looks like the women are going to have a little bit better weather draw in Salem with playing Thursday/Saturday this year. On Thursday the high is projected to be 45 degrees (feels like 39 degrees with 10 to 15 mph winds) and Saturday will feel a little bit warmer at 45 degrees but with 5 to 10 mph winds. Both days look to be mostly dry.
The men will have the rougher final four day on Friday with snow showers and a projected high of 34 degrees (that feels like 31 degrees).
don't know anything about Tufts, but the parents of the Emory womens and mens teams have had multiple tailgates together and will be doing the same this weekend. Excited to root on both teams!
P.S. - also from Central PA!
I forgot about the Tufts and Emory men's teams! That has got to be such a cool experience for the families/friends. It would be fun if the fans would coordinate (and maybe they do) and all stay at the same hotel. You could possibly have a Tufts hotel and an Emory hotel filled up with all the supporters.
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D3 Soccer's final weekend begins today with the women. #1 Wash U will take on #4 Chicago at 3pm (ET). Then #2 Emory takes on #3 Tufts at 6:30pm.
I was surprised to see that Wash U and Chicago have only met up in the post season one time and that was last year in the Elite 8 game which Wash U hosted. Wash U won that game scoring the only goal with 10 minutes left in regulation on the way to their second National Championship.
In their last seven meetings (going back to 2019), six have ended up in a tie with just last years sectional final game being an outright win by either team. Also during this span, neither team has scored more than one goal during a game.
Seven minutes in Chicago scores and leads Wash U 1-0 at half time.
Play looks fairly even but I would say Wash U has better possession especially in the attacking third so far. Shots are even at 3-3 with Wash U leading on shot on goal 2-1. Corners has Chicago up 3-2 at the half.
Wash U ties it with 22 minutes left in regulation with a goal by Koleno.
Very entertaining game to watch! Wash U is definitely the stronger team right now and has taken it to another level. Chicago defense is bending but not giving up the lead (yet). Wash U bringing high pressure and Chicago struggling right now to get it out of their half. 12 minutes left in regulation still tie 1-1.
Going to overtime tied 1-1 in the Wash U vs Chicago game! If this first game is any indication, we are in for an exciting weekend!
We are in the 8th round of PK's!
We're in the 11th round of PK's!
We are now repeating kickers.
Wash U wins it in the 14th round of Penalty Kicks!
Wash U took the first PK and I think Chicago had at least 2 maybe 3 chances to win it in PK's with the ball at their feet but were unable to do so! Real fun game to watch and unbelievable nail-biting finish.
Glad you all are here with updates, tried following on the ncaa website and they have Chicago winning.
That's correct, Chicago had three attempts to kick the winning PK. Kudos to Wash U for finally capitalizing! Looking forward to the second semifinal.
Quote from: jsoxbo on December 04, 2025, 06:24:50 PMThat's correct, Chicago had three attempts to kick the winning PK. Kudos to Wash U for finally capitalizing! Looking forward to the second semifinal.
Thanks for confirming jsoxbo. There were so many rounds I was loosing track!
The next game should be interesting as well. I see Emory as the more polished and traditional soccer-style team but Tufts is just so scrappy and tough .. I really don't know who has the edge.
Goal 3 minutes in for Emory off a short corner!
It looks like the men's teams for both Emory and Tufts are along the rails chearing on the women's teams.
Possession more even now after the goal .. maybe the Jumbos have a slight edge in possession in the last 10 minutes. Emory with the lead 1-0 seventeen minutes into the game.
Half ends with Emory up 1-0.
I think Tufts had the better possession but the stats are pretty even. Shots are even at 3 and shots on goal are even at 1. Tufts leads on corners 5-2.
Emory goes up 2-0 with a quick counter strike and a shot from outside the 18 that glanced off the upper right post and into the goal!
Emory scores again on a shot from almost the same spot outside the 18 but this time the shot finds the upper left corner of the goal. Emory up 3-0 with under 17 minutes left in regulation. Unless Tufts starts finding the back of the net it looks like it will be the Bears vs the Eagles on Saturday for a chance at the National Championship.
Emory closes out the game with a win 3-0.
Saturday's National Championship game will feature #1 Wash U vs #2 Emory in an all UAA final.
Quote from: CentPA on December 04, 2025, 08:58:04 PMEmory closes out the game with a win 3-0.
Saturday's National Championship game will feature #1 Wash U vs #2 Emory in an all UAA final.
Third year in a row that Wash U. is in the DIII women's soccer finals. First time since 2018 that two teams from the same conference meet in the finals (Williams beat Middlebury on PKs).
Quote from: Kuiper on December 05, 2025, 09:54:04 AMQuote from: CentPA on December 04, 2025, 08:58:04 PMEmory closes out the game with a win 3-0.
Saturday's National Championship game will feature #1 Wash U vs #2 Emory in an all UAA final.
Third year in a row that Wash U. is in the DIII women's soccer finals. First time since 2018 that two teams from the same conference meet in the finals (Williams beat Middlebury on PKs).
2018 was Williams most recent National Championship and ended their impressive run that saw them win the Championship three out of four years in 2015, 2017, and 2018. Who won in 2016 .. none other than Wash U (their first National Championship) and now Wash U is trying to do what was last done by Williams in '17 & '18 and win back to back titles in D3 Women's Soccer.
I don't know why, but I am surprised that in the history of their programs, Wash U and Emory has never met up in the post season before.
I thought the postgame interview with Emory Coach Patberg, Madison Teng, and Mikayla Camp was interesting with Coach Patberg giving a lot of kudos to the UAA teams in the final four (https://youtu.be/ei2ObsUtBYw).
Interesting - Coach Conlon starts #9 Olivia Clemons for the first time since Wash U's tie at Trine back in mid September. Also has #12 Cami Colpitts on the bench to start the game. That's the first game she hasn't started since the beginning of September .. don't know if she is dealing with an injury or not.??
Through the first 15 minutes of play, Emory has had the better possession but no dangerous shots as of yet for either team.
Colpitts comes off the bench 17 minutes into the game (with Aling coming off) so she looks fine.
Goal for Emory from Madison Teng from inside the left side of the 18 with a left footed shot. Emory up 1-0 22 minutes into the first half.
I feel that for Emory to win today they may need to find a way to score another goal against Wash U and no other team has been able to do that this year yet.
Emory is just countering so quickly and they are giving Wash U some fits right now. 20 minutes left in the first half.
Wash U starting to settle things down and showing better possession with 10 minutes left in the half. Wash U's Clemons did have a good shot that required a good save from Emory's GK Sophia Garcia
Halftime sees Emory leading 1-0. Emory definitely had more of the possession over the first half but Garcia was asked to make two very good saves to keep Wash U off the board.
We will see what adjustments the coaches make at halftime. I would guess that Wash U will show a lot more energy and maybe high press. Emory it seams to me was already doing this in the first half.
Wash U definitely coming out with more energy and possession. Emory having a hard time getting the ball out of their end of the field right now with 10 minutes gone in the second half.
Wash U ties it with a goal by #25 triple M: Monica Morales-Martinez right on the 18 line that goes over the goalkeeper's hands. 23 minutes left in regulation.
And just like that Wash U takes the lead with a shot from #12 Cami Colpitts from 20-25 yards out hitting the upper right corner of the goal. 20 minutes left with Wash U now leading 2-1.
Wash U. takes the lead on another shot from distance over the head of the Emory GK
Emory will need to be the only team this year to find a second goal in a game against Wash U to have a chance to win their first National Championship today, and they have under 12 minutes to get it done.
3-1. Wash U is just too tough for Emory over a full game
UPDATE: VAR review! Offside.
Emory still alive
#9 Olivia Clemons probably just put this out of reach with a left footed shot a step inside the 18 for a 3-1 Wash U lead with under 6 minutes left in regulation.
There was a video review of the third goal and the goal is reversed!!! Offside.
Coming up to 5 minutes left with Wash U still leading 2-1.
Back to Back for Wash U!
They win their 3rd National Championship in program history with a 2-1 win over Emory their UAA rival!
Wash U repeats as national champions!
Wash U beats Emory by the same score they beat them during their regular season matchup in Atlanta: 2-1.
I suspected that if Emory was going to win they were going to need to score at least 2 goals during the game. There was only one team this year that was able to keep Wash U scoreless through 90 minutes and that was Messiah in the Elite 8, sectional final game. They just have too many weapons.