I enjoy crunching numbers and hope it's ok to create a standalone thread related to NPI and projections for the 2026 NCAA tournament.
Today Kenyon knocked out Depauw and I believe Depauw cannot make NCAAs after that loss.
St John also defeated Gustavus and the Gusties are likely out of contention for NCAA.
St Olaf had a come-from-behind win to defeat Carleton 2-1 which ends Carleton's season while teams in the NPI 30s celebrated while hoping they can claim an at-large bid to NCAA from bubble territory (SUNY Onoenta and Hobart, notably).
The Liberty League has semis on Friday early afternoon which includes Skidmore at St Lawrence (Skidmore unlikley to have any path to NCAA aside from AQ while SLU should be in no matter what) and Ithaca @ Vassar. Ithaca still has potential for an at-large bid to NCAA but it's a small chance so they'll be hoping for a conference win and AQ berth.
UAA also features a few teams around the bubble fighting to continue their season. CWRU and Chicago should be locks while Emory and Carnegie are on the top side of the bubble and WashU likely needs a win to have a chance at NCAAs.
Elsewhere, the NESCAC seems to have a lock on 8 entrants to NCAA regardless of their conference semis/finals. Williams can likely retain NPI #1 even with a loss to Amherst (and even if Tufts defeats Hamilton). It's not clear whether there's any way for Tufts or any other NESCAC team to remove Williams from NPI #1 regardless of NESCAC tourney outcomes.
In Centennial, John Hopkins is the only tean with hope aside from AQ but even their path to NCAA is very narrow aside from AQ (they basically need an outright win tomorrow to have any chance of at-large without winning AQ).
Today's NPI (thru games 11/4) has 8 bubble teams within 0.25 points (rank 33-40) so it is safe to say thing will be close and even my spreadsheets cannot predict with 100% accuracy.
I will try to keep this thread updated in the next few days to track selection outcomes for teams on the bubble.
In 2024 and 2025, the lowest ranked NPI teams to get an at-large bid to NCAA were 31 and 33.
Massive upsets in the SCIAC tournament
FINAL: Whittier 2 - Redlands 1
Whittier barely got past Pomona-Pitzer in the play-in 4/5 game, but was not bothered at all by playing two days ago while Redlands had rest. Redlands' Anders Beckton had a great chance with 1:30 remaining on a cut back ball from the endline to the center of the box and he shot it wide. No. 5 seed and 6-6-8 Whittier takes down and likely eliminates from At Large contention #1 seed and 11-4-5 Redlands.
Redlands was #38 in the latest NPI, but this should take them out of the bubble. A loss against #144 Whittier is a bad one. Tough way to go out for Alex Ortega and his players.
FINAL: La Verne 4 - CMS 0
La Verne crushes CMS, which had some chances, but simply was not as clinical in front of goal as La Verne. #3 and 8-5-7 La Verne takes down #2 and 10-6-3 CMS. CMS was #59 in the latest NPI, so if it had any glimmer of hope of an At Large before this game, that is gone.
In the championship game on Sunday, Whittier travels to La Verne in the finals no one expected!
NPIs referenced in this post are from Thursday 11/4 so any teams that won yesterday will likely be a bit higher when the 11/5 NPI is released.
MAC Freedom: Stevens and Arcadia each won semis yesterday and play Sat 5pm in the finals. Neither team is high enough in rankings for at-large so this conference will only send 1 AQ to NCAAs.
MAC Commonwealth: Nailbiter for Messiah (#17) hosting York (#71). Multiple lead changes and 5 total goals in the first 31 minutes. Messiah ultimately won 4-3 in overtime to eliminate York which also bolsters other NCAA-bubble teams as Messiah is guaranteed a spot in NCAAs whether by AQ or AL.
MAC Commonwealth: Neumann (49) knocked out Hood (178). Unfortunately for Neumann the win doesn't move them very far up the NPI. I believe Neumann's only path to NCAA is via AQ.
MAC Commonwealth Finals: Neuman would move up to ~32nd with a win. Tie or loss and they will not make NCAAs.
C2C: Salisbury (#41) will face Mary Washington (#70) today (Friday AM) at 11am in conference finals. Must win for Salisbury: a win would get them up to ~33rd in NPI This conference is weird so others may have a better understanding of what is happening. I'm not sure if one of these teams will get an AQ. If there is no AQ available, then Salisbury has an outside shot at NCAA with a win but I would wager, even with a win, that they would be on the wrong side of the bubble for NCAA at-large. Christopher Newport (NPI #24) already shows an NCAA opening-round game on their team website so perhaps they've already secured the C2C AQ in spite of not playing in their tournament?
C2C is such a strange league- not sure how CNU would secure an AQ, they don't play any conference games. The league only exists as a postseason tournament, so if they sat out the conference tournament there is no way they should get the AQ, if there even is one. CNU's NPI ranking will get them in, but not sure about the Salisbury/UMW winner.
I've long said that CNU, UMW and Salisbury need to find a league that will take them in, the C2C is nonsense.
C2C does not have an AQ this year.
These NPIs are from the 11/5 update:
CNE: Roger Williams (#33) faces Western New England University (#99) in the finals on Saturday 1pm. I think Roger Williams needs a win. If their NPI dropped by just 0.2 they would fall 4-5 positions down the rankings and a tie would definitely hurt their NPI score.
NEWMAC: couple of bubble teams here playing semifinal games early this afternoon with finals on Sunday. #29 Babson hosts #111 Coast Guard which is pretty much a must-win game for Babson since a tie would drop them to ~33rd in NPI. Wheaton (#40) hosts MIT (83) at 2pm. An outright win for Wheaton would obviously keep them in the hunt for AQ but also get them into bubble-zone (around 35th) for a possible AL berth.
NJAC: 2 bubble teams already knocked out (TCNJ #35 and Rutgers #38). The conference finals are tonight at 7pm with #7 Rowan at #13 Montclair State. These teams cannot drop lower than ~18th with a loss.
MASCAC: Bubble-team Salem State (16-1-1 on the year but NPI is "only" 32nd) hosts #151 Mass Maritime tonight at 7pm. Salem will really want an outright win to improve their NPI to ~28th; a tie (and loss on PKs) would probably end their season. Other semi are both ranked outside 200 in NPI so it would seem Salem has a good shot to secure an AQ as long as they advance today.
NCAC: big battle on Sunday in the finals - Kenyon (#19) hosts Denison (#28). While Kenyon appears to be a lock for NCAAs, Denison needs to treat the game as a must-win (although losing on PKs would improve their NPI slightly and probably lock them in for at-large. A loss for Denison would put them around the bubble but probably on the wrong side (~35th).
ODAC: Bubble team Washington & Lee (#27) is already out of their tournament. Lynchburg (#16) hosts Shenandoah (#71) in the finals Saturday 5pm. Anyone currently on the bubble is rooting for Lynchburg.
SAA: Big game today for bubble team Trinity (#34) vs Berry (#94) at a neutral site. A Trinity win would move them up to ~31st in NPI while a tie would drop their NPI to ~39th and they're definitely out of NCAA if they lose (~44th). The other semi is Southwestern (#9) vs Rhodes (#82); Southwestern is a lock regardless so other bubble teams are rooting for Southwestern to win.
CCIW: North Park (#23) hosts Wheaton-Illinois (#197) in conference finals on Saturday 5pm. North Park seems like they should be a lock for NCAAs with a win or tie, but a loss would put North Park in a precarious spot around the bubble ~33rd.
Landmark: Scranton (#10) hosts Moravian (#60) on Saturday 3pm. Scranton is a lock so a Moravian win would hurt other bubble teams.
Any conference that I haven't already mentioned likely will only send the conference champ to NCAAs.
Summary of bubble teams who are out of their conference tournament and no longer control their own fate:
#27 Wash Lee
#30 Hobart
#31 Oneonta
#35 TCNJ
#38 Rutgers
Liberty League semis today: Ithaca will only climb to ~35th with a win.
Centennial: Johns Hopkins will climb to ~33rd with a win and Haverford would climb to ~40th with a win.
SUNYAC final tomorrow: Cortland in no matter what (~18th with a win or ~25th with a loss); Plattsburgh needs a win to secure AQ.
UAA: Emory win = ~24th, tie 31, loss 39. Carnegie win ~18, tie 24, loss 30. Chicago win 8, tie 18, loss 19. WashU win 25th, tie 33rd, loss 43. CWRU holds 6th with win or tie, loss drops to 15th.
ODAC won't take CNU or UMW since they are VA public and ODAC is all private. The best fits for all three is either NJAC or SUNYAC. They are outliers since there are little or no D3 publics in the mid Atlantic or South. Similar schools in PA are D2.
And similar schools in WV are D2 as well.
My apologies if this one has been mentioned, but it appears the MIAC is pretty locked in at 1 AQ and 1 AL.
The conference title game on Saturday is #4 St Olaf vs #22 St. John's. The Oles are obviously a lock no matter the result, and I can't imagine the Johnnies would fall much even with a loss.
The NWC doesn't have a conference tournament (I think it is the only D3 men's soccer conference which decides its AQ after a full double round-robin format), but the last two regular season games for each member this weekend are shaping up to be an effective playoffs.
Only two teams are still in the race, but they are neck and neck.
1. Whitman (32 points)
2. Pacific Lutheran (31 points)
Saturday 11/7
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth
Puget Sound @ Whitman
Sunday 11/8
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitman
Whitman and Pacific Lutheran should be favored in the Saturday games, but both Puget Sound and Whitworth are capable of playing spoiler. Whitworth only has two NWC victories all season, but one of them was a 1-0 victory over Pacific Lutheran on 10/11. Puget Sound lost to Whitman the first time the two teams played, but by a 4-3 score. Neither Pacific Lutheran nor Whitman are coming in on a hot streak. Willamette lost its last game to Willamette and PLU squeaked by Lewis & Clark 1-0 and tied the three previous games.
For what it's worth, if the Sunday game is the de facto championship game, Pacific Lutheran beat Whitman 1-0 when they played each other in Tacoma.
Let me propose renaming this thread for accuracy:
2026 NESCAC tournament finalists = NCAA Final Four
:-X
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on Yesterday at 07:14:34 AMMAC Commonwealth: Nailbiter for Messiah (#17) hosting York (#71). Multiple lead changes and 5 total goals in the first 31 minutes. Messiah ultimately won 4-3 in overtime to eliminate York which also bolsters other NCAA-bubble teams as Messiah is guaranteed a spot in NCAAs whether by AQ or AL.
One of the greatest games ever at the Shoe--and I would say the same if the outcome were reversed. Both teams wanted it, both played with minimal mistakes other than missing a few gimmes, and the stars came out for both at just the right time.
It's unfortunate that York didn't play this well often enough earlier, or they'd be off to the NCAA races with an at-large bid.
The recent rise of York and the recent move of Neumann into the MAC Commonwealth has given the Falcons exactly what they needed most: conference opponents with fair chances of taking them down on any given day. A decade ago, the Falcons had both Etown and Lycoming (under Nate Gibboney) as major conference opponents. Then they both left for (greener?) pastures, first Etown and then Lycoming. Now Lycoming has been resurrected as York (under Nate Gibboney), while Neumann is presently better than Etown was when they left the MAC. Other conference teams are two steps lower, and most of those have never defeated Messiah.
Likewise, the recent rise of Dickinson (under Jorge Chapoy) only helps Messiah. Prior to 2024, Dickinson had never managed even one single result vs Messiah in 40 years, despite scheduling one another most seasons.
Partly, of course, this has resulted from the Falcons taking a step down--although the team that lost in PKs vs Williams in 2022 was IMO the #1 team nationally. But, it's also a result of local teams getting a lot better. That can only help Messiah. No conference presently has a chance to rise to the level that NESCAC has these past 15 years. The best anyone else can do is to play a strong schedule. When your neighbors get better, teams like Messiah with great traditions usually get better. (Here's rooting for OWU to get their magic back.)
C2C final in OT. No score in regulation. Salisbury def needs a win to keep their already slim hopes alive for an at large bid.
Update: going to pens
Quote from: eaglesoccerdad on Yesterday at 01:30:08 PMC2C final in OT. No score in regulation. Salisbury def needs a win to keep their already slim hopes alive for an at large bid.
Update: going to pens
I think that means Salisbury's NPI will drop slightly and rank will fall to low-40s which, unfortunately, means the end of their season regardless of the outcome of PKs.
Salisbury wins in PKs 5-4. Pretty sure this is the 1st conference championship for Salisbury but with an asterisk since only 4 teams, no AQ and CNU missing.
Quote from: mngopher on Yesterday at 12:21:25 PMMy apologies if this one has been mentioned, but it appears the MIAC is pretty locked in at 1 AQ and 1 AL.
The conference title game on Saturday is #4 St Olaf vs #22 St. John's. The Oles are obviously a lock no matter the result, and I can't imagine the Johnnies would fall much even with a loss.
Both teams should have NCAAs locked; looks like St John's would only drop to ~25 with a loss.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on Yesterday at 08:30:30 AMNEWMAC: couple of bubble teams here playing semifinal games early this afternoon with finals on Sunday. #29 Babson hosts #111 Coast Guard which is pretty much a must-win game for Babson since a tie would drop them to ~33rd in NPI. Wheaton (#40) hosts MIT (83) at 2pm. An outright win for Wheaton would obviously keep them in the hunt for AQ but also get them into bubble-zone (around 35th) for a possible AL berth.
Wheaton stays alive with a 4-2 victory over MIT
Babson-Coast Guard going to PKs (1-1 at 110 minutes)
Quote from: eaglesoccerdad on Yesterday at 02:14:54 PMSalisbury wins in PKs 5-4. Pretty sure this is the 1st conference championship for Salisbury but with an asterisk since only 4 teams, no AQ and CNU missing.
That's the bummer of CNU opting out (which is their right; UCSC did too and the conference allows it because the cost can be prohibitive if it is far away). Salisbury lost the opportunity to pick up some SoS and QWB points from playing a highly ranked team and getting a result even if it wasn't the AQ.
Babson loses on PKs 5-4.
I wish I could laugh at the historical PK futility. I think that's 7 straight eliminations on PKs.
CG deserved the win. I know the conditions became atrocious, but when CG lost a guy to 2nd yellow in the 92nd minute Babson didn't play with enough urgency.
Crushing loss considering they might have been inside the NPI by advancing to the finals win or lose. Now it's over.
Need more guys with creativity with the ball at their feet like Adonai Samuel.
And I'm sure weather was a factor in the feed (not blaming Flo on this one), but after a near flawless video for 110 minutes we were left with audio only for 6-7 PKs.
Quote from: BaboNation on Yesterday at 03:47:33 PMBabson loses on PKs 5-4.
I wish I could laugh at the historical PK futility. I think that's 7 straight eliminations on PKs.
CG deserved the win. I know the conditions became atrocious, but when CG lost a guy to 2nd yellow in the 92nd minute Babson didn't play with enough urgency.
Crushing loss considering they might have been inside the NPI by advancing to the finals win or lose. Now it's over.
Babson still has a chance for AL berth. NPI treats a PK-loss as a tie for the calculation. So they should wake up tomorrow around 33 NPI.
At the same time, Hobart and Oneonta will likely leapfrog Babson.
Quote from: BaboNation on Yesterday at 03:47:33 PMBabson loses on PKs 5-4.
I wish I could laugh at the historical PK futility. I think that's 7 straight eliminations on PKs.
CG deserved the win. I know the conditions became atrocious, but when CG lost a guy to 2nd yellow in the 92nd minute Babson didn't play with enough urgency.
Crushing loss considering they might have been inside the NPI by advancing to the finals win or lose. Now it's over.
Need more guys with creativity with the ball at their feet like Adonai Samuel.
Again stick to basketball you do not know soccer.
Quote from: SKUD on Yesterday at 04:26:57 PMQuote from: BaboNation on Yesterday at 03:47:33 PMBabson loses on PKs 5-4.
I wish I could laugh at the historical PK futility. I think that's 7 straight eliminations on PKs.
CG deserved the win. I know the conditions became atrocious, but when CG lost a guy to 2nd yellow in the 92nd minute Babson didn't play with enough urgency.
Crushing loss considering they might have been inside the NPI by advancing to the finals win or lose. Now it's over.
Need more guys with creativity with the ball at their feet like Adonai Samuel.
Again stick to basketball you do not know soccer.
Weigh in. What did I get wrong?
NCAA NPI website says AQ next to Salisbury.
Quote from: 2Short2Slow on Yesterday at 06:02:24 PMNCAA NPI website says AQ next to Salisbury.
I think that's just a default setting since they technically won their conference tournament, but the championship manual for this year says that there is not an AQ for the conference.
Quote from: Sandon Mibut on November 05, 2026, 09:37:53 PMThe Liberty League has semis on Friday early afternoon which includes Skidmore at St Lawrence (Skidmore unlikley to have any path to NCAA aside from AQ while SLU should be in no matter what) and Ithaca @ Vassar. Ithaca still has potential for an at-large bid to NCAA but it's a small chance so they'll be hoping for a conference win and AQ berth.
Vassar downs Ithaca 2-0. Ithaca's season likely over as they will drop to NPI ~48.
St Lawrence defeats Skidmore 4-1. SLU will make NCAAs regardless of result in the finals.
Trinity TX defeated Berry to advance to SAA final and their NPI should climb to ~30.
#32 Salem State plays at 7pm eastern https://salemstatevikings.com/sports/msoc/2026-27/schedule
Salem State 0-0 at halftime. Rainy.
Big upset in the SAA tournament!
Rhodes 1 - Southwestern 0
Since Southwestern should be safely within the At Large zone, it looks like the SAA will have two teams get bids.
Trinity plays Rhodes in the finals.
Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 07:59:31 PMBig upset in the SAA tournament!
Rhodes 1 - Southwestern 0
Since Southwestern should be safely within the At Large zone, it looks like the SAA will have two teams get bids.
Trinity plays Rhodes in the finals.
Bit of a cascading effect. If Southwestern won they would have been tentatively in the top 8 protected seed range. Now they will drop out of the top 16 altogether.
Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 07:59:31 PMBig upset in the SAA tournament!
Rhodes 1 - Southwestern 0
Since Southwestern should be safely within the At Large zone, it looks like the SAA will have two teams get bids.
Trinity plays Rhodes in the finals.
Southewestern will drop to ~21.
Salem State at 1-1 with about 31 left to play. Looks like it's just pouring rain
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SCAC Semifinals
FINAL: LeTourneau 0 (7) - Concordia (TX) 0 (6)
LeTourneau wins in PKs and advances to the SCAC finals against Colorado College on Sunday in its first year in the conference. LeTourneau used the controversial strategy of switching goalkeepers just for the shootout. It paid off as Gamble stopped Concordi'a 7th PK to win the shootout. That's LeTourneau's 6th game without a loss and 8th in its last 9 games. This will be LeTourneau's 2nd time getting to the conference championship in the last 3 years, but the last time was in 2024 when it played in the ASC and lost to Hardin-Simmons 2-0 in the Finals.
FINAL: Colorado College 2 - St. Thomas 0
These two teams have battled several times in the SCAC tournament over the last few years, the last in 2024 when St. Thomas beat CC 2-0 in the semifinals. Colorado College got its revenge this year, breaking open a tight 0-0 affair in the second half with goals in the 67th and 77th minutes by its top two scorers - Teddy Opler and Jack Hillard. St. Thomas also fell back into old habits, with Joshua Aguirre earning a straight red card in the 86th minute as the team battled to come back.
That is Aguirre's 2nd red card of the season - both received in games against Colorado College - to go along with 6 yellows. It ended a three game stretch without a card for Aguirre, which is tied for his longest cardless string of the season. While he frequently gets cards, it seems like there is some especially bad blood between Aguirre and the Colorado College players, although it didn't affect the outcome in this match. In the first match between the two teams, Aguirre's red card came in the 74th minute, not long after UST had scored to close the gap to 3-1 and it short-circuited any comeback as CC went on to score two more goals to win 5-1.