d3hoops.com has a post up now containing what should be the direct link (it might show up as Access Denied until show time, but I think that's right):

https://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2026/selection-day

So far TCNJ has only stolen the at-large bid they themselves could have been in line for. Definitely a gray area if we should consider them a bid thief or not (they're currently between at-large #15 and #16 in NPI).

Quote from: sac on February 28, 2026, 11:08:32 AMHope found a few ways to slow him down and make him a less efficient player and that probably turned 3 games in Hope's favor, but it was never easy.

Mostly just hold him and hope for the best. 

I think similar when it comes to roster size. I had a conversation with a Calvin assistant one time who said they would prefer to allow players to self cut rather than cutting. There's obviously a line here, but if a guy is going to show up every day in practice and put in the work to help make the team better, all while knowing there's not a prayer of getting any meaningful minutes (hopefully good communication between the staff and player in knowing that), they have sometimes kept that guy around as an upperclassman. Some guys just love to be part of the team, some guys don't want to put in that time and effort to not see action, and both are totally understandable.

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 26, 2026, 10:04:06 AM

Quote from: WPI89 on February 26, 2026, 09:47:33 AMGreek - does Babson get in if WPI wins the NEWMAC?

Babson is pretty safe, but obviously you want to make the final to really lock it in.

I agree, they look really, really good right now. Only an extreme bid thief scenario could keep them out.

Quote from: gordonmann on February 25, 2026, 09:25:06 AMPratt will move from the Atlantic East to the CUNYAC in 2027-28

https://cunyathletics.com/news/2026/2/25/general-pratt-to-join-new-and-expanded-division-iii-conference-in-2027.aspx

The AEC is in trouble, unless they can add someone. Neumann and Marywood are joining the MAC, and now Pratt is leaving, too. That leaves just five members.

I wonder if they'll go hunting some current UEC members?

Quote from: ziggy on February 24, 2026, 02:40:02 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 24, 2026, 02:26:23 PMInteresting you mentioned Brandeis, who sits at At-large 32 today. They really have the potential to jump 11 teams with a win vs NYU?

A win at NYU is a far better final game on the resume than will be the case (loss in conference tournament) for anyone else who finds themselves on the bubble.

Beating NYU currently carries a win value of a little over 78 compared to a loss value against Montclair State, for the sake of comparison, of just under 50.

I think this is key: mostly everyone needs a loss here on out to be eligible for an at-large. Brandeis doesn't. So while most at-large candidates (so hard not to type Pool C) are hoping to tread water in NPI by going 2-1 or 1-1, Brandeis (and other UAAs and AQ winners) have opportunity to gain ground.

Quote from: ziggy on February 24, 2026, 02:47:18 PM

Quote from: BaboNation on February 24, 2026, 02:42:37 PMThe 1:37pm Projections update I just looked at has eliminated Babson completely.  From 99.8% safe to the golf course in one day.

Love your work, but I suspect a glitch.

No, we just need to expand the viewable range on the Bubble Watch as they shift over at 100%. It shows up if you look down below to the full projections or on our NEWMAC page.

I just added a 27th line. We need some teams to start actually clinching the AQs! 

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on February 24, 2026, 02:49:52 PMI noticed a couple weeks ago that VTSU-Johnson disappeared and Penn St-Brandywine was added. Not a huge deal for Johnson since they went winless and aren't a factor, but Brandywine isn't eligible.
It also says Brandywine has a 3.3% chance of being a top 16 team and 2.8% to be a top 8 team. That seems wrong.

That is very wrong! I will work on eliminating that possibility if they win tonight.

Being an NCAA Provisional team, they are not yet eligible for the NCAA Tournament. In these situations, most leagues award the AQ to the tournament runner-up if they win. So a team might enter a final vs. Brandywine knowing they've won the AQ already.

If I recall, this happened in the SCAC when St. Thomas TX was a provisional.

I think (but I'm old now and my memory is bad) Uchenna Egekeze also celebrated senior day before deciding on a fifth year at Calvin (and then celebrated another senior day), but yeah, I think the plan for Jalen was always to graduate and then explore what options exist.

There is a D1 in Michigan with a coaching staff full of guys who have seen Jalen dominate their teams at past stops. I would bet they will reach out when the time comes.

But we still have between 1 and 9 games left to enjoy with him here at Calvin!

I believe they have posted a re-run this morning with some C2C and NESCACs fixed.

I think there are still errors in some GNAC games and a Caltech-Occidental non-conference game.

I don't want to pretend our list is perfect at D3Datacast, but we've had a lot of these games identified since November and we're here on the 3rd week of NPI release and the NCAA Stats group doesn't have it fully figure out. They're the ones that should have the data.

Congrats to everyone for It^TM Happening^TM!

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 13, 2026, 01:26:44 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 13, 2026, 01:05:04 PMDepends. Platteville lost to Point not too long ago and they didn't even move. La Crosse won this week and actually lost a position in the rankings and Pool C category. Depends who you play and what happens around you, I guess.

Thanks for the comment, which is why I am asking about the change in the "index".

Do you recall what change occurred in the Platteville and UWSP indices with the outcome of the game?

I remember last year, baseball's NPI was very good at getting good teams into the Pool C position.

In Men's basketball the difference between a win and a loss is 25 plus QWB divided by adjusted games played. So, in 20 GP, a win to a loss would change a team's NPI by about 1.250 - 1.500.

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on February 06, 2026, 09:25:50 AMIf I use MAssey to predict all remaining games, you get this for final standings:

Hope 11-3
Trine 11-3
Calvin 11-3
Olivet 9-5
Albion 8-6
Alma 3-11
Adrian 2-12
Kalamazoo 1-13

Should it actaully end like this, 2 of the 11-3 teams get a bye, and the other plays Alma.

In this scenario, Calvin would be the 1-seed via 3-1 record vs. tied teams Trine and Hope, so I will accept this result. 

Provisional Pipeline for 2025-26 (now confirmed)
Full Membership: Hartford, Lyon
3rd year provisional members: none
2nd year provisional members: Carlow, Penn State-Brandywine
1st year provisional members: Regent, Johnson and Wales (NC)

Provisional Pipeline for 2026-27
Applications expected: Azusa Pacific (reclassification from D2), St. Francis (PA) (reclassification from D1), Maine-Augusta, Maine-Ft. Kent

*Games against Year 3 provisional members count the same as games against full-members for NPI and tournament selection purposes (possibly changing to include provisionals that conform to all D3 bylaws but may be earlier in the pipeline)

Conference Changes Starting in 2025-2026
Anna Maria leaves GNAC for the MASCAC
Bryn Athyn (UEC) drops athletics
Ferrum leaves the ODAC for D2
Fontbonne (SLIAC) closes
Hendrix leaves the SAA for the SCAC
Hiram leaves the NCAC for the PAC
John Carroll leaves the OAC for the NCAC
Johnson & Wales (NC) joins the C2C
Johnson & Wales (RI) leaves the GNAC for the CNE
Keystone (UEC) is doing the limbo, but allowed to play
LeTourneau leaves the ASC for the SCAC
Northland closes
Regent joins the C2C
Southwestern leaves the SCAC for the SAA
St. Elizabeth leaves the UEC for the AEC
Trinity (Texas) leaves the SCAC for the SAA
Expecting 43 Pool A bids, 0 Pool B bids, 21 Pool C bids

Conference Changes Starting in 2026-2027
Alfred State leaves the AMCC for the SUNYAC
Alverno (Women only) leaves the NACC for the C2C
Asuza Pacific joins the SCIAC (full D3 member 2028-29 academic year)
Luther leaves the ARC for the MWC
Maryville leaves the CCS for the SAA
Marywood leaves the AEC for the MAC Freedom
McMurry leaves the SCAC for the ASC
Neumann leaves the AEC for the MAC Commonwealth
New Jersey City leaves the NJAC for the CUNYAC merges into Kean (no NJCU NCAA D3 athletics)
Rosemont (UEC) ceases athletics (merging into Villanova)
St. Francis (PA) joins the PAC (full D3 member 2028-29 academic year)
Schreiner leaves the SCAC for the ASC
SUNY Cobleskill leaves the NAC for the SUNYAC
SUNY Delhi leaves the NAC for the SUNYAC
SUNY New Paltz leaves the SUNYAC for the NJAC
Wesleyan (Ga.) (Women only) leaves the D3 for NAIA

Conference Changes Starting in 2027-2028
Concordia (WI) leaves the NACC for the CCIW