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Messages - ziggy

#1
General football / Re: D3 Playoffs
November 19, 2025, 09:05:19 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 15, 2025, 09:03:33 PMNow that we know (most likely) who the field is, can anyone do the calculations to see what would it have looked like had the refs not made the controversial call in OT of the Hope-Alma game back in week 4?

Currently Hope is Pool C at 9-1 and seeded #17 while Alma is Pool A at 8-2 and seeded #24. Had the call gone the other way Hope would be 10-0 and certainly hosting round 2 but could they have reached a top 8 seed? Alma would be 7-3 and would they drop out and let fellow Region 4 team Ohio Northern in?

I ran the numbers and at 10-0 Hope would have easily been a Top 8 seed. Switching just the Hope-Alma result, the top four seeds would have been the same but Hope would be the fifth-overall seed, Bethel sixth, Johns Hopkins seventh and UW-River Falls eighth.

UWRF stays in the Top 8 but gets jumped by Hopkins because they don't get as much out of their Alma win in this scenario. Berry falls out of the Top 8 with Hope moving in and Ohio Northern gets the last at-large bid with Hope in as an AQ instead of at-large.

Have to feel for Ohio Northern. Certainly you leave certain things out of your hands when you lose two games but they are in as long as EITHER:
1. The Hope-Alma game ended as it should have instead of an especially egregious officiating call extending the game that turned into an Alma win.
OR
2. Weather doesn't force an early end to the game and Rowan is able to finish off a week one win against CWRU.
#3
Quote from: crufootball on November 17, 2025, 01:01:24 PM
Quote from: ziggy on November 17, 2025, 11:54:58 AM
Quote from: crufootball on November 16, 2025, 10:46:59 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 16, 2025, 07:55:59 PMI would like to see an NPI iteration for UMHB with wins over a 5-5 McMurry, a 6-4 TLU and a 2-7 Austin College, giving UMHB an 8-2 record.

I asked Logan Hansen a similar question and he said if UMHB had played teams with a final NPI of greater then 40 (and won) we would have been over the bubble. Since McMurry and TLU are 52+ but Austin is 37 then I assume we would be dancing right now.

Dial settings that lean more into strength of schedule would have also gotten UMHB in: https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/17/how-does-changing-the-dials-change-the-2025-d3-football-playoff-field/

Yes it seems like every other setting gets us in  :( Wasn't that true last year as well when you experimented with our dial settings?

Yes, obviously they got in as it was but they only moved up in the Pool C rankings as the dial turned more to SOS: https://d3datacast.com/2024/11/19/changing-npi-dials-change-2024-d3-football-playoff-field/
#4
Quote from: crufootball on November 16, 2025, 10:46:59 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 16, 2025, 07:55:59 PMI would like to see an NPI iteration for UMHB with wins over a 5-5 McMurry, a 6-4 TLU and a 2-7 Austin College, giving UMHB an 8-2 record.

I asked Logan Hansen a similar question and he said if UMHB had played teams with a final NPI of greater then 40 (and won) we would have been over the bubble. Since McMurry and TLU are 52+ but Austin is 37 then I assume we would be dancing right now.

Dial settings that lean more into strength of schedule would have also gotten UMHB in: https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/17/how-does-changing-the-dials-change-the-2025-d3-football-playoff-field/
#5
Quote from: BergAlum2 on November 15, 2025, 10:04:51 PMNot sure if what i am looking is final, but looks like ONU is the first team out for the at large bids

They are...and also this: https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/16/cwru-vs-rowan-football-who-won-the-tie/
 :-[
#6
Calvin has picked up a third commitment from Unity Christian for their 2026 class.
https://x.com/KyBerg3/status/1989893495918924162?t=EBfzZl9OgZ7zuFExW65Pvw&s=19
#7
Quote from: calvin_grad on November 08, 2025, 12:38:25 PMCalvin loses on the road to Denison 61-59. Bench only took 4 shots and scored 0 points. Overway with 29 but not much else that stood out.

What stood out was Denison only turning it over three times and grabbing 18 offensive rebounds. They shot it poorly but managed to maximize their number of attempts.
#8
Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on October 27, 2025, 12:50:44 PMHypothetical question (and I'm not overlooking any of the upcoming games):

Should Hope and Adrian win out (meaning an Alma loss in the final game of the MIAA) we would have a 3 way tie for first at 6-1.  So what is the tie-breaker to determine the automatic qualifier in that kind of scenario?  I would assume that with the same MIAA record, and the losses coming from each other, you have to then go to non-league record (which would eliminate Alma) but Adrian and Hope are still tied.  At that point does Hope get it for beating Adrian head-to-head? Do we at some point go to higher NPI?  Do we anticipate 2 playoff bound teams if we have have two 9-1 teams?

This is not specific to a three-way tie but it came to my mind a couple weeks ago how smart it would be for a conference to use NPI in their tiebreakers for an AQ to maximize the league's entrants into the playoff.

For example, if teams find themselves in a tie but sitting on opposite sides of the cutline, give the AQ to the team that would get left out and let the team above get in as an at-large. Why limit yourself to having one team in the playoff when you could use your tiebreaker rules to manufacture getting two in?
#9
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 22, 2025, 11:12:43 PMLiterally a voter out of 25 and you cited one team. It's been way worse in the past.

It was said above that it was no surprise that no one else got any votes besides the three that got in and I would disagree for this very reason. I was actually very surprised NYU went 0-for-25 on ballots.
#10
General Division III issues / Re: Flo Sports
October 16, 2025, 09:03:15 PM
Quote from: ziggy on August 26, 2025, 11:26:33 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on August 19, 2025, 11:31:45 AMIt's not Flo, but the MIAC has decided they want to get in on the PPV action and will charge either $10/game or $25/sport to watch its playoff contests.  That could rapidly add up to more than the yearly cost of a Flo subscription.  It's supposed to be a trial; regular season webcast remain free (for now at least).

The MIAC likely won't be the only conference doing this. I'm not sure if this directly factors into the decision making but an interesting comment made to me was that a conference going this route allows them to observe first-hand the impact charging has on viewership without having already signed over your rights in a multi-year deal.

Bingo.
#11
We were pleased to be joined by Calvin WBB head coach Mark Christner for a preseason chat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72eXf69-2HY
#12
Quote from: sac on October 08, 2025, 10:30:40 AM
Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on October 08, 2025, 09:17:45 AMRoster: https://calvinknights.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/2025-26

I saw Keefer and AA Huron play against state champion East Lansing last spring in the quarterfinal.  Seems like he has a pretty good upside.  Held his own against an excellent team on a night Huron was overwhelmed like everyone else.

3 players in that game are going to be on MIAA rosters,  Keefer, Cam Essell at Albion and Kaden Brown should make the roster at Adrian.

Keefer's brother is on the Kzoo roster. 

Perfect opportunity to plug our preseason conversation with Bill Sall that released this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmjAbLUpXUA

Keefer got a mention from Bill as their biggest surprise and a guy doing some good things in the early preseason practices.
#13
First official NPI rankings probably coming out next week but here is where the WIAC stands in terms of overall ranking through Week 6. The strength of that non-conference performance by the league is definitely shining through.

1. UW-La Crosse
6. UW-River Falls
12. UW-Whitewater
13. UW-Platteville
23. UW-Stout
42. UW-Oshkosh
75. UW-Eau Claire
76. UW-Stevens Point

Full rankings: https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/
#14
I imagine No. 1-14 that would allow larger conferences to gain a second automatic qualifier could garner a lot of discussion here and elsewhere. It should be noted that the Championships Committee has recommended that the Management Council NOT support this proposal.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/Sep2025D3CC_Report.pdf
#15
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on September 21, 2025, 04:24:09 PM"We don't want students who make college decisions based on athletics and we don't want to compete against schools who accept students who make college decisions based on athletics."

That's the vibe I get from a lot of places.
Quote from: ronk on September 21, 2025, 07:17:27 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on September 21, 2025, 04:24:09 PM"We don't want students who make college decisions based on athletics and we don't want to compete against schools who accept students who make college decisions based on athletics."

That's the vibe I get from a lot of places.

 College decisions are made based on a number of factors: academics, finances(public vs private; merit vs income aid; commuting vs room & board), student body size, prestige, and, for the athletes, program success; separation of D3 athletics into tiers of philosophy will largely depend on what proportion of that decision should be allocated to athletics vs all the other factors.


Whenever these kinds of statements and comments get out, I think it has less to do with the future of DIII and more to do with that particular institution's future in DIII.