If someone wants to do a deep dive into the last 10 years of schedules to confirm this, it might open some interesting NPI opportunities for us.  In an ideal world, we could pick up the non-con games that the other 9 MWC teams can't play now.  For an ARC team to now get to schedule a bottom half MIAC, CCIW, WIAC or NACC team with a good SOS and a .500 record, might make for a better NPI than Luther.

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 20, 2025, 03:05:08 PM

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on May 20, 2025, 11:49:10 AMThanks for the charts Logan! I do think that the trend is something to note, as the top of the conference is separating itself from the bottom of the league. I would assume that I am one of the younger people on this board, as I have only followed the conference for about 8 years now. But in those 8 years, it has felt like the haves (Central/Wartburg/Coe/ud) and the have-nots (the rest) have not done much flip-flopping. Now I think this is pretty normal for most football conferences, as we typically don't see teams going from worst to first in this particular sport. But it does beg the question, how much longer will this go on for, and what does one of the teams in the have-nots group need to do to break through? I would love someone to hear the opinions of those who are a bit more seasoned on this board on the matter, as they have probably seen and know more about the history of the league.

I would say that there are definitely some leagues where there are pretty stark differences in institutional priorities that drives a lot of the stratification (the MIAC and former makeup of the ASC immediately come to mind), but that's not really the case in the ARC. Wartburg as an institution definitely puts a premium on athletic success, but if you look at federally-reported revenue/spending numbers, the whole conference is basically on the same playing field. Some institutions have other issues (general financial health of the college, dwindling nearby population), but there's nothing on the scale of St. Scholastica vs. St. John's to overcome.

This is anecdoctal, but for me coming out of high school (class of '08), I had barely functional dial-up internet at home, and I was only going to hear about a school from in-person visits or mailers, and then everything I knew about them was essentially learned from my on campus visits. Now a kid from Arizona can meet a coach from Iowa at a recruiting fair, and then in the next fifteen minutes they'll know who the best teams are in their conference and send a DM to their coaches on Twitter. That can make it more difficult to climb the ladder, but not insurmountable.

I also look at success in other sports. There's abosultely no reason for a school like Luther to be struggling as much as they have been in football. If you exclude football from the All-Sports Trophy last year, Luther finishes first in the conference, and they're regularly finishing in the Top 3 in the All Sports Trophy even including football, and have the third-most outright All Sports Trophy wins all time, behind Wartburg and Central.

The stasis right now can feel entrenched, and I do think the availability of information for recruits can make that entrenchment more "real," but I think pretty much every school in the ARC is only 1 great coaching hire away from moving into the upper half of the conference.

This has been an interesting dynamic in the 20+ years I've been around the conference and I've seen some teams fall and almost get over the hump.  In the late 90s, Simpson was the conference power, then fell slowly down to where they are now.  As a Wartburg guy, I think Coach Hoskins will get them on the right track if the administration gives him the tools to be successful.  Luther had a good thing going for a while with the triple option coach and I thought they would be the next team to get to the next level, but he left.  Which bring me to my point.  You said a team is 1 good coaching hire away from moving up in the world, but in my time, it has taken more than a good coach to turn a program around. 
1. Coach...obviously it takes a dynamic, motivated coach who is committed to winning but also changing the culture of a program.
2. Administration support...if a coach doesn't have the bosses who are willing to change and let the coach create the culture, it might get good for a year or two, but you can't build on a poor foundation.  I think that's what we saw at Luther and Simpson.  Good young coaches who tryed to build something, but didn't get the support or "buy in" from their bosses to craft a culture of success.
3. Local recruiting...Wartburg and Central without question, built a fence around their local recruiting territory.  That's not to say they get everyone in a 50 mile radius, but they are definitely in the top 3 for every good high school player in their local area.  Coe and Dubuque have done a decent job as well, but haven't really locked the gate of their territory quite yet, but they've done a much better job than everyone else at getting local kids.  That comes from having a culture kids and parents want to be a part of.
4. Local Support...Once you have steps 1-3, it's much easier to get local support, boosters and fans to build your program.  Its much easier to have businesses and fans continuously fund and support your program when they see the kids from their hometown on your team.  It might seem like a shortcut to just recruit texas, florida or Arizona, but it's hard to get fans and businesses to support a team full of "outsiders".

Long post, but my point is that the "haves" are playing by that playback and the "have-nots" seem to be trying different recipes that haven't panned out yet in my humble opinion

Went down a rabbit hole with only 8 games to watch and thought I'd put together a "Daddy Warbucks" bracket with all teams seeded and unlimited flights.
 Got some interesting matchups but also had 7 flights in the first round and 12 in the second assuming highest seed won in first round.

(can't figure out how to share a pdf or jpeg so if someone wants to let me know how, I'll share it)

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on November 12, 2024, 10:53:22 PMWith regards to the looming playoffs, I think it is going to be very interesting to see how ARC teams schedule teams in the nonconference moving forward. Logan Hansen has long been ringing the bell that NPI simply favors win percentage (for this season and next) over scheduling good teams. I wonder if a team like Wartburg looks at their nonconference scheduling of St. Johns as a detriment due to that loss having potentially disastrous effects on their NPI number (yes I know they have locked up the conference AQ and thus it doesn't matter but if they did not it would). But for other teams in the conference (UD playing UWP and Aurora/Loras playing Hope) what good do these games do if these teams ever dream of getting into the tournament? I know Coe plays Cornell due to the history of that game but it is actually going to be the reason they get into the playoff field this year. Had they played a stronger opponent and lost it most likely would have kept them on the outside looking in.

I would like to think that following the next season the NPI dials would be reset but there are a number of conferences that are going to benefit from the current set-up and I would imagine they would push back against this idea. In the meantime, that sound you hear is Luther's phone ringing off the hook from every team in the country looking to take a trip to play in Decorah on the blue turf...

Scheduling is an art sometime and for solid top 15 teams, it can be difficult.  Wartburg only got 4 home games this year because we couldn't get anyone to sign a home/home agreement and other teams were asking for $ to come play a one season non-conference game in Waverly. 
The lower/mid level teams might be getting plenty of calls, but that just makes it more difficult for a Wartburg/SJU/NCC or WIAC team to get non-conference home games without cutting a check. 

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 22, 2024, 02:30:56 PM

Quote from: MediaGuy on October 22, 2024, 02:26:05 PMHopefully the new NPI system will cut through the BS and actually rank teams accordingly...if those numbers were public, I would think Coe and Wartburg would be much closer than they are. 

Those numbers are public:
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39608

Thanks, I've been looking for those all year, and it does in fact rank Coe higher than Wartburg, proving my point...any chance I can call you for backup the next time I'm arguing with the wife?...

Quote from: Schipper Strong on October 20, 2024, 10:55:46 PM

Quote from: DBQ1965 on October 20, 2024, 07:01:12 PMSerious question:  In Grand Rapids, MI, I live too far away from IIAC/ARC to make an informed decision,  but I wonder how a 1 loss Wartburg team is ranked ahead of an undefeated Coe team?  Was the St. John's game that big for the Knights?

Wartburg gets a lot of credit for the past two years' playoff runs and their only loss being to the current number 3 team. Each round of the playoffs tends to require a significantly stronger team and making in to the semifinals twice proved they had made those steps. I think Coe deserves to be rated right up there with  Wartburg honestly.

Central lost to both Coe and Wartburg by only 4 points in each game with Coe going to double OT. I came away from both games feeling that they were winnable for Central. In the Wartburg game we really shot ourselves in the foot. The only TD scored in regulation time against both teams was when a pass to the player along the sideline got blown backward by the strong wind. The receiver didn't comprehend that it wasn't a forward pass and didn't jump on the ball or attempt to stop the WB player who picked it up and ran it in for a TD. That was enough to cost us the game. I would have played Brady Ketchum at QB all season and last year. He got to start Saturday and only got two offensive series before he was benched because of the score, but he was 6 of 6 in passing with two TDS.

Oops, got off topic. Back to Coe and Wartburg. I would say that on the days we played each team, I thought Coe was the better of the two. That is subjective of course as we actually took Coe to double OT. Coe was able to run against our defense that has been tough on the run all season better than Wartburg. Defensively they were both strong. I think the  Wartburg vs Coe game will be a real showdown. I will have no real idea how to pick when they play each other. Wartburg found their offense against Luther and beat them worse than we did, though we substituted earlier than I have ever seen. Then Wartburg didn't do as well against Simpson as we did. Maybe they substituted earlier because the Simpson coach was a WB grad or maybe it was because the coach knew what to expect out of WB because he was a grad.

Couple of insights from a Wartburg Fan...

As to why Coe is ranked lower than Wartburg with a better record...it's a subjective poll with human inputs, so there is always a latency bias weighted on what a team has done the last few years vs just this season.  There are always 4 or 5 WIAC teams ranked in the middle of the season because nobody knows who will come out of that mess on top.  Then by the end of the year, there is always 1 team in the top 10, and a few others from 11-25.  But I've seen most of those teams the last few years, and if the top 25 was just the top 25 teams, the top 4 or 5 teams in the WIAC should be ranked...but humans have a hard time ranking a 3 or 4 loss team in the top 25.  Also, I've always thought that a team needs a road playoff win in the previous few years to get some extra love in the polls.  Wartburg got that at St John's 2 years ago and followed it up with a 2nd semi final run.  What the head to head results really give you when looking at the polls is it gives teams "floors and ceilings".  Wartburg will not get above St. Johns without SJU losing 2 times, and SJU wont fall below Wartburg with 1 loss.  Hopefully the new NPI system will cut through the BS and actually rank teams accordingly...if those numbers were public, I would think Coe and Wartburg would be much closer than they are. 

As to the Wartburg/Central Game...
That was the worst played game from both teams I've seen in the series in quite some time.  Wartburg's QB had lost a lot of confidence after the bad game at SJU, and Wartburg just got crippled with little injuries.  In the 4th quarter, we were playing our 1st, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th best o-lineman, some out of position.  And both teams made some horrendous mistakes, we had waaaay to many penalties and didn't play well on 3rd down.  I wish that game was in week 10 or 11 instead of so early in the season.

As to the Wartburg/Simpson Game...
Central was able to get ahead of Simpson and on tape it looked like the Storm was broken spiritually pretty early in that game. Wartburg had one of those weeks were Wartburg was great on 1st and 2nd down, and just came up short on 3rd and 4th.  In this league, most of the teams are capable of beating anyone, but the Wartburg/Central/Coe's of the league have historically been able to make the other teams believe they can't win pretty early in the game, thus the success.  If you get to halftime and the "lesser" team still believes they can win, you're in for a dogfight until you prove otherwise. Having seen Wartburg play everyone from North Central and Mount Union, to Luther and Greenville, I'm a believer that pretty much any team receiving votes in the Top 25 is capable of beating anyone on any given day...it all comes down to poise and play-making.  Wartburg has had a nasty habit of falling behind in big games, and somehow winning at the end, and it's been because the coaches don't panic, the players trust each other and everyone believes they can win.

As for this week's Coe/Wartburg Game...
I think it's an interesting match-up between 2 teams who have a similar game strategy...run the ball, take a few shots, and wear down the defense so they can run the ball late.  I expect to see more of an old-school Big 10 game, low scoring, good defense, and field position, rather than a SEC or PAC-10 game shootout.  I think that Coe will still get a Pool C with a loss and Wartburg will need St. John's to win out to get a Pool C with a loss.

Quick question from your friends in the ARC Media...what is the correct pronunciation

(we-ack) or (y-ack)

having gone back to watch all the crazy games in the WIAC these last 2 weeks, there doesn't seem to be a consensus among the TV presenters.

Quote from: faunch on April 24, 2024, 03:50:31 PMThrowing this out to the MIAC and D3 community. John Faison was a high school and MIAC football, basektball and baseball official. I don't know him personally but have followed his story. He took a tumble off a ladder last fall and suffered some awful injuries. He's on the mend but has a long road to recover.

https://www.faisonfamilyfundraiser.com/
https://www.gofundme.com/f/john-faison-and-family-medical-fund

I'm pretty sure his crew was officiating one of the Wartburg Playoff games and we heard that they had an official fall off a ladder.  I hope he is on the mend and back on the field soon.  In my experience, I like ARC officials the best but MIAC officials are waaaaaay better then the WIAC guys.

Quote from: Jonny Utah on December 16, 2023, 09:41:31 AM

Quote from: D3fanboy on December 16, 2023, 09:36:48 AM

Quote from: Jonny Utah on December 16, 2023, 08:11:36 AM

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on December 16, 2023, 07:33:00 AM
Some talk on twitter/X from some Wartburg folks about how they felt that NCC knew all their plays in the semifinal game before they happened. A few folks implied a similar scheme to that that has been described at Michigan. The same accounts indicated that they informed the Cortland staff prior to the Stagg Bowl about this and that they needed to change their signals. Any of our Wartburg fans here know anything about this? Obviously sign stealing has always been a part of sports but if there were rules broken to do it then it is a different matter. Also some pretty big accusations to be throwing around...

I saw a comment mentioning this on Twitter.  I have to think it would be impossible for a team like ncc to scout on a team they don't even know they are playing, live, in one or two games and have the ability to steal a teams signals. 

Literally zero chance NCC is stealing Wartburgs or anyone signals.  But the thought has to cross your mind because of Michigan but even there we have no idea how much it helped or didn't help.

With the way some D3FB games are broadcast with a wide shot of the visiting sideline , it would be easier to gather the signals than from an iPhone a la Connor Stalions

Meh still a huge stretch.  These broadcasts usually never show the coaches (or three of them usually) sending in signals and they change those kids/coaches often anyway.

Here is a tweet from an unverified account...
https://x.com/LinemanDoc001/status/1735843401981927877?s=01
It would seem to show that there were video recorded signals playlists from Belhaven and Mount Union.

Not much to verify authenticity, but that is the evidence presented so far.

Quote from: ncc_fan on December 03, 2023, 04:31:28 PM

Quote from: MediaGuy on December 03, 2023, 03:21:50 PM

Quote from: CardinalAlum on December 03, 2023, 12:33:14 PM
Looking forward to a great semifinal next week! Where's the best place to get lunch and a beer before the game in Waverly next Saturday?

The Dirty Dog, Sasquach Jack's and The Other Place are all good and a short walk from campus.  Frederick's or Z's Pizza is also good if you go about 10 blocks down the main drag.
I'd probably steer clear of Joe's Knighthawk if you're a visiting fan...that's where the "crazyiest" Wartburg fans will probably be.

From the street view on Google Maps it appears that Joe's Nighthawk is a bar/grill AND a self-service carwash . Is the car wash safe for NCC fans? 

Should be, so long as NCC wears all white with the white helmets...Wartburg is black head to toe so an all white/black dynamic with the unis would look great

Quote from: CardinalAlum on December 03, 2023, 12:33:14 PM
Looking forward to a great semifinal next week! Where's the best place to get lunch and a beer before the game in Waverly next Saturday?

The Dirty Dog, Sasquach Jack's and The Other Place are all good and a short walk from campus.  Frederick's or Z's Pizza is also good if you go about 10 blocks down the main drag.
I'd probably steer clear of Joe's Knighthawk if you're a visiting fan...that's where the "crazyiest" Wartburg fans will probably be.

Quote from: d-train on November 14, 2023, 02:19:38 PM

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on November 14, 2023, 11:17:43 AM
That being said I have no doubt that the region 5 RAC knew exactly what they were doing when ranking Central 7th... I would think they understood that having Central ranked would give Coe a much better resume and would give them the upper hand in the selection process. If I was a St Johns fan I would certainly be upset but at the same time, everyone is playing by the same rules and the region 5 RAC didn't break any rules (though they may have bent them just a touch)...

Was there a more deserving team(s) for 6th/7th? Honest question, I'm not familiar enough with the region to know.

It would be hard to call shenanigans or say that the RAC bent rules if more deserving teams simply don't exist in the region.

I don't think there are any other teams in region 5 you would consider for a regional ranking, Concordia (WI) had 3 losses, as did WashU, the only other contender could have been Illinois College, and their only notable wins were Monmouth and Milikin so I don't see any other viable teams to rank.  Had Monmouth beaten IC then they would have been the only real possibility with a high SOS.  That being said, here is the membership of the Region 5 RAC...

Jason Imperati, chair Lawrence University Midwest Conference
Jeff McMartin Central College (IA) American Rivers Conference
Jesse Scott Wheaton College College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
Ben Cooprider Grinnell College Midwest Conference
Jim Hamad Aurora University Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference

Central's head coach is there and so is Wheaton's so there don't seem to be many people who are looking to help North Central. 

I understand North Central feeling that they got snubbed, they're the undefeated returning National Champ.  But when if you take the bare numbers on North Central's and Wartburg's resume without a team name on the top of the card, Wartburg had a better regular season on paper. In know it's a bit hollow coming from a Wartburg fan, but I think the RAC got it right.  If there is anyone to be upset at, it's the national committee for not switching North Central and UW-L.  Yes UW-L had a monster SOS, and plays in the WIAC, but North Central is undefeated and on a 25-0 winning streak, so if they obviously value W/L (thats how Coe is in over SJU) then they should have switched North Central and UW-L games in the bracket and nobody would be complaining until it's time to see where teams travel in the Semi's.

After listening to the interview with the playoff committee chair, it seems like he is committed to sticking to the strict interpretation of the criteria when selecting the playoff field.  That being said, wouldn't it make sense to have blind selections for Pool C. 

It seems like you would have the best overall field as well as be able to say that they arent playing favorites or selecting a team based on previous seasons, if when the 6 teams were up for pool C consideration, there were no team names assigned, just W/L, SOS and RvRRO.

Does this happen now and if not, what does everyone think about doing it that way in the future?

Quote from: SpartyBlue on November 06, 2023, 02:47:52 PM
Right, that's what you couldn't see on the video.  No one looked to be complaining too much on the UD side, though.

I checked with someone who has access to the ARC film database, where they upload the "all 22" game film, and there are definitely 12 players in formation for UD defense when the ball is snapped.

Quote from: SpartyBlue on November 06, 2023, 02:19:25 PM
I only watched the replay online after reading doolittle's post and as a UD fan but football-neutral observer, it does look like they got the final call of fumble and recovery in the end zone correct, even if the side judge looks like he's signalling the ball carrier down. What you can't see are the mechanics of the illegal substitution call that would have ended the game on the prior fourth down.  What happened there?

Before the play, there was a timeout, where the play-by-play guy wondered if Coe would kick and tie the game or go for it.  After the timeout, Coe left the offense on the field.  In those cases, it's easy for the Defense to get a bit confused about what personnel should be on the field, so I assume there were 12 players in formation on the defense when the ball was snapped.  The only other times I've seen that call would be a player running off the field and not getting to the sideline fast enough.  If it was a player from the sideline standing on the field, that should be a sideline warning.