Quote from: Kuiper on September 24, 2025, 05:37:37 AMQuote from: DagarmanSpartan on September 24, 2025, 03:51:23 AMQuote from: Pat Coleman on August 27, 2025, 04:29:52 PM... no cliff for Case Western Reserve does not mean no cliff, still.
Not to belabor the point, but two of my other alma layers, Illinois and Houston, also recently announced record enrollments, with Illinois over 60,000 and Houston over 49,000.
No demographic cliffs there either.
As many people have explained to you before, the Class of 2025 was the highwater mark for high school graduation numbers. The drop in high school graduates doesn't appear until the current crop of HS seniors graduate (Class of 2026) and continues until 2041. So, if a school didn't have a record enrollment year last year, it's not because of a demographic cliff and if it did it has nothing to do with "disproving" a demographic cliff, nor does it necessarily mean their school won't ever experience its effects. In fact, some schools likely over-enrolled this fall precisely because they were worried about the demographic cliff and a larger class this year would help offset declines over the next four years. I doubt Case, Illinois, or Houston will be among the schools most at-risk because of either prestige, low cost, or both, though, so your alma maters likely have less to worry about. Many D3 small liberal arts colleges, however, are at risk, in part because of changing trends that the demographic cliff only exacerbates.
Very well stated. 3 schools having record enrollment does not negate the reality of the upcoming demographic cliff.