Quote from: NCC2010 on December 08, 2025, 01:20:28 PMQuote from: hazzben on December 08, 2025, 11:56:53 AMQuote from: NCC2010 on December 08, 2025, 09:34:32 AMThanks NCC2010...My point above was simply that there's a feeling of inevitability to the NCC vs UWRF stagg (though I hope to be proved wrong Saturday). We didn't have logan's metrics in 2003, and while SJU didn't lose that year like UWRF has this year, they had a few close calls. But Blaha gives me serious Blake Elliot vibes. It remains to be seen if the rest of the team around him is as good as SJU's 03 supporting cast. And 2025 NCC may yet prove immortal, where 03 Mount got shocked.Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PMQuote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PMQuote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PMQuote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PMQuote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.
I wasn't clear, I was meaning to say "best ever Mount team." That said ...
Logan's metric's earlier this year had NCC as the 5th highest since 1997, but all 4 above them achieved their peak in the post-season. Higher than peak 2022 NCC in Rd 4 and peak 2024 NCC in week 7. Even more interesting now that I'm looking back at the list, they are just ahead of 2003 Mount Union Rd 4.
Logan's regular season only list has 2025 NCC with the highest ever regular season rating.
Bringing this post over to the CCIW board, it is interesting to note that now NCC isn't even the highest team rated left in the field. UWRF has surpassed them this week.
https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1997407900008931713?s=20
I could be dead wrong, but I feel like we have the semifinal pairings a week early. NCC, UWRF, Wheaton, and Bethel are all playing really well right now on both sides of the ball. The biggest threats to an All Midwest Red Stagg Bowl IMO are Wheaton and Bethel. JHU and Sus are both really good teams with some awesome weapons, but I just can't see them as compete enough teams to win 3 more games. JCU v Berry feels similar. JCU is playing incredible D, has a very good QB and WR combo, and they just knocked off Mount. They might be the sleeper. But it's one thing to beat Mount, an opponent they are very familiar with. It's another to win on the road in the Semi's with a totally unfamiliar, physical, and balanced foe. Their posters assume NCC in the semi's is a fait accompli, but Bethel would fit that bill as well. I'll save my deep dive into these games for later in the week, both home teams are clear favorites. But they have two real hurdles to clear first.
Yep, I was just pointing out that NCC is no longer the favorite in Logan's model — something that's been pretty rare since 2021. In fact, this is the lowest spread (-10.9) for an NCC game in his model since NCC was a half-point underdog to UMHB in the 2021 Stagg Bowl.
I still need to rewatch all of Bethel's playoff games before I can say much about this week's matchup, but I did find it notable that Coach Spencer mentioned in the post-game press conference that the coaches on staff who remain from 2018 are motivated to avenge that last home loss, which came at the hands of the Royals.
Let's not forget that the NCC's last loss at BW is to Bethel in 2018 (correct me if I am wrong). I thought that is what Coach Spencer was referring to-----that, and being dismissed from the tournament in the 2nd round!

