Quote from: hazzben on Yesterday at 01:24:23 PMWhere Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

BTW Hazz, this is a great post. Love this data.

Wheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

When you can run the ball and are focused on stopping the run, you can be competitive in most games.

Hopefully your defense is better than St John's who was highly ranked in all categories and turns out was fools gold. They couldn't stop anything last week (188 yds rushing for RF). That's always the concern, did team xx play anybody. I would point out the same is true of NCC as they haven't faced any defense as good as Bethel (theoretically).

I think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Similar to NCC, Bethel is still close to 60% run so I don't think the weather will be a factor. This is going to be the toughest matchup for NCC by far. It goes without saying the same is true for Bethel. For NCC I have posted several times their biggest challenge will come when they face a team that is as physical as they are up front. Bethel is the first team with that profile the Cardinals will face. Bethel clearly wants to run the ball and stop the run, which is a recipe for success in football and certainly in the playoffs in D3. While both teams have talent across the perimeter on both sides, the identity of these squads is on the LOS and that's where this game will be won/or lost.

NCC has a generational talent in JP Sullivan on the DL and the guys around him are also very talented with at least 2 or 3 AA players. Bethel will struggle with this group but if they can limit the damage, they have Rundel and Drews that can create big plays. I am more interested in NCC's offense and the matchup with the Bethel defensive front. Bethel is tough, physical and talented. I'll be interested to see if they can challenge the NCC run game (which hasn't been done in 5 years) and if they can, I think they can win.

After Bethel, I don't see another team left that has the talent up front on both sides to challenge NCC.

Any of those coaches have eligibility remaining?

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.

you're not sure because no one is saying it. They have gone to the last 5 Stagg Bowls so I think it's ok if people say they are the front runner.

And I would disagree about the "step back" and certainly quantifying it with "sizable". They are undefeated, convincingly beat Oshkosh (who beat UWRF) and Wheaton (who has 3 playoff wins). NCC's defense took a sizeable step UP on defense. Their defense is the best of almost any of their Stagg teams IMO. Their offensive line is not as good but still among the very best in the nation, in part because the OL of the last couple years was generationally good. And oh yea, the QB was decent too. But NCC is every bit as good as last year overall in my view, just different good.

Quote from: CarollFan on December 08, 2025, 10:22:24 AMI would think UWRF QB is front runner for the Gagliardi trophy.
He not only is throwing the ball all over the place, he has over 1,000 yards rushing this season. He had 26 rushing attempts against St. John's.

If you want to vote for the Gagliardi:

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2025/12/gagliardi-voting

I would point out that the Gagliardi award does have a service component so it's not just performance based. I have no idea which candidate has done what off the field, just pointing out it's not the Heisman equivalent.

I personally don't think firing Dartt is going to restore Mt Union to national championship contender. The program has been elite but others have caught up and in a few cases, passed Mt Union. Under Kehres, what Mt Union accomplished is likely unrepeatable and requires an alignment across an institution that is extremely difficult to achieve. You think UWW wanted to end up where they are after Leipold (Or Augustana after Bob Reade)? A coach is one of many pieces that have to be in place for success. NCC has a great HC in Brad Spencer, but they have 9 full time assistant coaches that only do football. They have alignment in the administration from the AD to the President and involvement of alums that is rare. They are in a recruiting hotbed with a financial aid process that crushes competitors.

The gap below Mt Union is a lot larger than the gap above them at this point. Mt Union can certainly fire Dartt and any new hire will bring new optimism, but if the the level of support across the institution doesn't look to increase don't be surprised if you end up with results that are similar or worse than you currently have.

You may remember the 3rd place CCIW team lost to the 5th place WIAC team in the Culver's Bowl a few weeks back.

DPU's slanting, penetrating defense was built for the modern spread offense. Very difficult to identify and block 8 different players in a spread offense. Jesse Scott knew this and lined up in an old school 2 TE look (no spread) and ran right at DPU which forces them to defeat blocks (double teams, etc). Effectively eliminates the penetration scheme. Brilliant move but also a testament to the versatility of the Thunder offense as they can go 4 wide or 2 TE. They also ran a veer dive offense in short yardage (ala Navy) which is tough for a 3-4 defense to defend.

I have to think playing Mt Union and NCC on the road early this season helped this team the last two weeks. They are road warriors. Hopefully the music continues next week but this will be the toughest challenge yet.

Wheaton 49
DePauw 24

Wheaton 483 total yards. 190 rushing and 293 passing
Matt Crider 22 carries 120 yds
Mark Forcucci 16-27 293 yds 4 TD's
Peter Johanik 2.5 Sacks (including a strip sack that resulted in scoop and score)

My game ball goes to the Wheaton coaches for a brilliant game plan. The players executed it exceptionally well. Jesse Scott is one of the best offensive minds in the game. DePauws defense was cause for concern as their scheme creates chaos with all their movement and penetration. Jesse came in and lined up in a 2 TE offense (without AA TE Ben Juska who was out due to injury) and just came right at this defense which effectively neutralized their ability to penetrate. The result was just 2 TFL for a team that averaged 7 a game. 1 sack for a team that averaged almost 4 a game. And Wheaton rushed for 190 total yards and had their RB rush for 120 against a DePauw defense that was giving up 13 yds rushing a game and no team had close to 100 yds total this season. And Forcucci did his thing with his WR group with Kortenhoeven leading the way (4 for 106 and 1 TD).

Defensively Wheaton played bump man against OPOY and Gagliardi semifinalist WR Robby Ballentine and had a safety over the top which allowed the cover corner to be very aggressive. They limited #84 to just 4 catches for 52 yds and he was a non factor in this game. The advantage of Wheaton's DE's vs the DPU OT's was evident as the Thunder sacked QB Ballentine 7x and pressured him regularly.

A dominant effort against a really good team.

For Wheaton, their offense is the strength and while they are balanced, they have a QB/WR group that is as good as anyone in the country. Its strength on strength against the DePauw defensive front that is #1 in rushing and held UWW to 19 yds rushing and JCU to not much more. DePauw is also among the nations leaders in TFL (70) and sacks (36). Wheaton needs to get to 30+ pts because DePauw has a similar offense with a deadly accurate QB and a talented WR set led by Robby Ballentine (88 rec). This game is a great matchup because it will likely come down to how many stops Wheaton's defense can get vs the DePauw offense IMO. I think Wheaton has a favorable matchup with their two DE's vs DePauw's tackles and Depauw will like it's matchup of their DL vs Wheaton's OL.

I see a shoot out and the team that can get to 35-42 wins.

LaCrosse is going to be in trouble today. They are a physical team and good up front but NCC's defensive line, led by JP Sullivan, is at a different level. There isn't an OLine in the bracket that can contain him and his cohorts IMO. I don't see LAX scoring more than a couple of times. That means LaCrosse's defense will have to step up and try to control the NCC offense led by their physical run game. If that happens we may see a low scoring, close game. If NCC gets to 21 points I think its game over.