Quote from: markerickson on January 09, 2026, 10:20:47 PMI watched only the second half of the Stagg Bowl. Going into the game, NCC had to know they faced the top D3 football player.  NCC just didn't seem to have an answer for Blaha - same defensive scheme.  NCC did not respond well to altering formations in the second half.  And then the INT!  So happy I got to see it live!  NCC looked confused on O, and River Falls' D and coaches deservedly won the game by pitching a shutout against a team that averaged 52-5ppg during the regular season.

Hey Mark, I don't think any of UWRF's opponents had an answer for Blaha. They all have an answer now, no more eligbility!

A few fun facts heading into the title game:

-North Central has punted 32 times this season and UWRF has punted 39 times. That's less than 3 times a game.

-North Central has 100 tackles for loss and UWRF has 99.

-Both teams have exactly 567 rushing attempts.

-UWRF and NCC are ranked #18 and #19 respectively in turnover margin. They arrived there differently. UWRF has 37 takeaways (#1 in the country) and 22 giveaways. NCC has 23 takeaways and 9 giveaways.

The scenario for the River Hawks to win is defensive penetration that puts NCC behind the sticks, resulting in pressure and a couple of uncharacteristic turnovers that gives UWRH a couple extra possessions they capitalize on and NCC might struggle to catch up if they get down a couple scores. That's 38-34 UWRH.

Quote from: D3fanboy on December 31, 2025, 03:11:33 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 31, 2025, 03:02:53 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on December 31, 2025, 02:50:48 PMNCC could name the score.  The Cards are the only team that resembles the pre-portal days of prime D3FB.  People will tell you how great and deep D3FB is these days, but the top level has just dropped down (other than NCC). Unless NCC fumbles 2-4 times, the River Hawks will be physically outmanned.  UWRF are the kings of good, but NCC (and other D3FB dynasties) are just on a different level 

Kinda where my gut has led me over the last 2 weeks.

is Blaha a "generational talent" or is he a talented 7th year senior competing in a mid (as the kids say) D3FB?  I guess we'll see on Sunday

Maybe both? The last 7th year senior I remember was a generation ago at Capital--Rocky Pentello.

D3 National Championship Preview

North Central vs Wisconsin–River Falls. Here we are. The two best teams in Division III. The two best offenses in the country—built very differently.

Two elite coaching staffs now have an extra week to prepare, rep core concepts, and install new wrinkles. That matters. Coaches don't run plays they can't practice, and this extra time opens the door for situational football, specialty packages, and the kind of calculated trickery that often shows up on championship stages.

I've watched 11 North Central games and 10 River Falls games this season. In my opinion, here's how this matchup breaks down.
________________________________________
North Central (#1 Scoring O and D; #10 Total  D; #5 RZ O and #2 RZ D; #1 pass eff)
 
North Central runs the ball 65% of the time for 267 yards per game. As UWRF head coach Matt Walker put it: "boringly better than everyone at every position." That's accurate.

This team is built from the inside out. The offensive line sets the tone, led by OT Cortez Jones—a relentless drive blocker who fits NCC's identity perfectly. Sustaining blocks is core to the run game, and their wide receivers block as well as anyone on the field. No one has slowed this run game in six seasons.

And when you load the box, the pass game makes you pay. QB Garrett Wilson leads the nation in efficiency (207 rating), completes 70% of his throws, and has 42 TDs to just 4 INTs. He hasn't thrown a pick since October 4. RB Donovan McNeal (1,462 yards, 8 YPC) and WR Skokna (81 catches, Gagliardi semifinalist) headline an offense that is both methodical and explosive.

Defensively, this game features one of the two best players in D3 football: DL JP Sullivan.

Sullivan is a game-wrecker. No one has blocked him consistently all year (21 TFLs, 21 QB hurries). His presence, allows LBs Nuccio and Janiak to play fast and intelligently and in coverage—they understand route concepts and depth as well as any LB duo I've seen.

The strategic question for NCC:
Does DC Shane Dierking stay patient in two-high and rally to tackle—or does he try to force the issue with pressure? Sitting back keeps Blaha in front of you. But Dierking doesn't like bleeding slowly. If he pressures too much, it will get dangerous.

North Central doesn't beat itself. 4 interceptions. 5 fumbles. That's it. You have to take this game from them.
________________________________________
Wisconsin–River Falls (#1 Total O; #3 Pass O; #5 Scoring O; #1 First Downs O; #97 Total D)

Kaleb Blaha.

Best player in Division III. A true generational talent.

River Falls runs the most demanding offense in D3. They've run 1,191 plays this season—about 5 more games worth of offense than North Central. They play fast, they play wide, and everything stresses the defense.

Blaha is the engine:
•    4,690 passing yards
•    40 TDs
•    1,090 rushing yards
•    16 rushing TDs

He processes defenses at an elite level. The offense is designed to expose leverage, spacing, and rules—and Blaha knows exactly where the answer is on every snap. Their skill group is deep, tall, and versatile:
Rohrer, Wesolowski, Rush, Reifenberger, Hilton—all different, all dangerous. RB Trevor Asher adds balance with nearly 1,000 yards.

This offense forces you to decide what you're willing to give up.

Defensively, River Falls is better than people think.

LB Gage Timm (114 tackles) anchors a unit that thrives on disruption. RF has 99 tackles for loss and leads the nation with 27 interceptions. This defense is built to steal possessions. On money downs, they'll mug the LOS, show pressure, and bring more than you can block. The ball has to come out, and their DBs sit on the sticks and tackle. They don't give up many explosives, and their corners don't bite on double moves.

The key question:
Can they take the ball away from a North Central team that hasn't thrown an interception in three months?
________________________________________
The Matchup

Neither defense is stopping the opposing offense completely.

River Falls won't shut down the NCC run game—JHU ran for 233 yards against them. That will force man coverage and open explosives for Skokna and Rummel.

North Central won't "solve" Blaha. If they leave two-high all day, RF will nickel-and-dime them. If they pressure, Blaha will scramble and punish it.

This feels like a high-scoring game. But championships usually come down to the line of scrimmage. If Blaha can Mahomes his way into the fourth quarter, River Falls has a real shot.

In the end, I trust the best offensive and defensive fronts in the country to get a few critical stops.
If this game turns into a track meet, River Falls has the quarterback to win it late. But championships are usually decided up front, and North Central owns the best offensive and defensive fronts in Division III. That advantage shows up in the fourth quarter.

North Central 48
Wisconsin–River Falls 38

Coach Walker is a very impressive man. Clearly he as done a great job at RF and every interview he gives reinforces his down to earth approach and straight forward honesty with his players.

He compares North Central with the Mt Union dynasty and the run UWW went on and says these teams are "boringly better than everyone at every position". I find that an apt description of this NCC team. He also describes this game as a clash of styles. NCC wants to control the clock and the ball and RF wants to go fast and run a lot of plays.

Fun to watch.......

Quote from: BDB on December 27, 2025, 02:45:46 PMI'm still trying to reconcile how they lost to Oshkosh.

Oshkosh is the only game where UWRF didn't win the turnover battle. Blaha threw 2 INT's in the UWO redzone (both in the 3rd qtr) and UWO drove 66 yds in the last 1:15 to win it with 10 sec left. UWO didn't turn it over at all. UWO  UWRF's two huge advantages to their "Top Gun" offensive approach--They lead the country in takeaways and they average 25 more offensive plays than their opponents. In the UWO game they ran an astounding 35 more offensive plays than UWO but the turnovers (with no takeaways) killed them.

I think Mount's problem vs JCU was not their defensive performance against D1 transfers. If I had told you they would hold JCU to 10 pts before the game I'm pretty sure most Mount fan would have taken that in a heartbeat. No way anyone thought Mount would only score 7 in that game. I still can't believe it and I watched it.

I count 11 CCIW All Americans. 5 from NCC, 5 from Wheaton and 1 from Carroll. Congrats to all.

Quote from: GusD on December 20, 2025, 11:04:29 PM

Quote from: USee on December 19, 2025, 04:58:16 PM

Quote from: GusD on December 19, 2025, 03:20:41 PMThe majority of the talk we've heard about NCC vs JCU seems to be concentrated on the fact that the D line for JC will be the best NC has faced. If so, it seems to logically follow that chances are good that the NC ground game might well be limited to its lowest total of the season. Should that occur, does that pretty much insure JC wins? Let's not forget that NC can pass a little too, and that they are led by the nation's most efficient passer.

First, I didn't see anyone say JCU was the best DL NCC will have faced. That may have well been last week v Bethel, we shall see. I pointed out that JCU's defensive front held some pretty high quality playoff caliber teams to under 100 yds rushing in those games so it translates for me that will be the determining factor. And, while NCC can certainly pass, Wilson is an efficient passer primarily because the NCC run game is crushing everyone and when you commit extra people to stop the run, pass opportunities abound. If I am a defensive coordinator going against NCC I would absolutely love if NCC became a passing team. Not because they can't do it, but because they want to run the ball (and you have to pick you poison), that's their identity.

NCC ran for 204 yards which is under their 267 game average. However they passed for 324 yards, 101 over their per game average of 223. Perhaps, at least for this game, they did give the D coordinator what he thought he wanted by becoming primarily a passing team.
Who would have thought the Cards would total more yards through the air than did JC?

NCC ran 53 total plays, 30 runs and 23 passes.

With WashU dropping out of the CCIW there are a number of CCIW teams with open dates. Typically the CCIW plays a non conference opponent in week 1 OR week 2 and the other date is a bye followed by 9 conference games. WashU's slot comes at different times for CCIW teams so many of them are using that week as a bye and playing in both week 1 and week 2.

Wheaton no longer has an opening in 2026 as they play Mt Union Sept 5 and Albion Sept 12. Their bye is week 8 (the WashU slot). Presumably North Central will travel to Oshkosh in week 1 to fulfill the 2nd part of their home/home commitment from last year so they may well have a week 2 opening. None of the other schools list their future schedules.

Quote from: GusD on December 19, 2025, 03:20:41 PMThe majority of the talk we've heard about NCC vs JCU seems to be concentrated on the fact that the D line for JC will be the best NC has faced. If so, it seems to logically follow that chances are good that the NC ground game might well be limited to its lowest total of the season. Should that occur, does that pretty much insure JC wins? Let's not forget that NC can pass a little too, and that they are led by the nation's most efficient passer.

First, I didn't see anyone say JCU was the best DL NCC will have faced. That may have well been last week v Bethel, we shall see. I pointed out that JCU's defensive front held some pretty high quality playoff caliber teams to under 100 yds rushing in those games so it translates for me that will be the determining factor. And, while NCC can certainly pass, Wilson is an efficient passer primarily because the NCC run game is crushing everyone and when you commit extra people to stop the run, pass opportunities abound. If I am a defensive coordinator going against NCC I would absolutely love if NCC became a passing team. Not because they can't do it, but because they want to run the ball (and you have to pick you poison), that's their identity.

I agree that NCC defensive front is the biggest mismatch. That's primarily why I don't think JCU can score more than 1-2 times. The bigger key is how the JCU defensive front holds up to the NCC running game. No one has so far, I though Bethel would have a chance and if they were healthy that might have played out. JCU has held some high quality running games to under 100 yds so this is the biggest test for the NCC run game to date IMO.

For John Carroll this weekend I think their hopes lie on their defensive front and their ability to neutralize NCC's rushing attack, a tall task that no one has done yet this season. JCU's defensive front is the strength of this team as they held their highest quality opponents--Johns Hopkins, DePauw, Mt Union and Berry all well below their average rush output and only one opponent has rushed for over 100 yds against them (Berry, which had 85 yds rushing from their QB).

The problem for JCU is most of those teams held JCU below their average offensive output and they are facing the only top ten overall defense they have played against this season. JCU's only hope (IMO) is a low scoring game where they get a couple NCC turnovers...similar to the Mt Union game. If NCC offense is humming this could get ugly quickly as I don't expect JCU to be able to score more than 14-17 pts without a turnover.

On the other side, Johns Hopkins has their work cut out for them but they have held up well against some high quality opponents this season. UWRF sure seems like a team of destiny this season.

BTW I don't remember seeing it mentioned but the officiating crew Saturday in Naperville was a WIAC crew.