Interesting sequence with regards to clearing the snow in Waverly. I should start by saying I was watching 3-4 games and Wartburg was by far the best at clearing snow. They had an army and some big heavy equipment. NCC was at the other end of that spectrum.

At the end of the first half, Wartburg ran the clock down to 3.6 seconds and called timeout to attempt a fg. during the timeout the grounds crew went out and used shovels to clear a spot for the FG kicker. The problem was they clears a spot about 3 yards too close to the LOS. As the kicker lined up and kicked snow away from his path, just before the snap, Wheaton HC Jesse Scott called Timeout, ostensibly to "ice" the kicker, pun intended. Unfortunately, that allowed the grounds crew to come back out and use shovels to clear the correct spot and the Wartburg kicker promptly made the kick to end the first half. Those 3 pts proved big in the back and forth second half.

Quote from: GusD on November 30, 2025, 04:37:02 PM

Quote from: USee on November 30, 2025, 04:22:51 PMWell, you can complain about NPI all you want but without it Wheaton is not in the field this year. No wins against RRO, though SOS may have been decent.

The new NPI encourages teams to schedule top 10 teams and particularly WIAC/OAC/HSC etc as the NPI boost will insure you are in the field at 8-2 and certainly 9-1.

Well my angst may be somewhat misguided then because while I certainly can't be accused of being a Wheaton fan, it is just plain craziness for anyone to assert they didn't belong in this season's playoffs solely because they had two losses.
But I just can't help but think a system that placed NCC 4th has some flaws. That's all.

No question the old system would have left Wheaton out but certainly would have had NCC as the likely #1 overall seed. NPI needs some adjustments for seeding purposes.

Well, you can complain about NPI all you want but without it Wheaton is not in the field this year. No wins against RRO, though SOS may have been decent.

The new NPI encourages teams to schedule top 10 teams and particularly WIAC/OAC/HSC etc as the NPI boost will insure you are in the field at 8-2 and certainly 9-1.

Quote from: D3fanboy on November 29, 2025, 05:56:23 PMBig time road W for Wheaton.  Is Wartburg the new Linfield?  Or just a corn-fed Hardin-Simmons?

More like Grove City, who some think is better than Wheaton. 

#19 Wheaton 28
#5 Wartburg 24

Wheaton 340 yds; 112 rush, 228 pass
Wartburg 348 yds; 180 run; 168 pass

Mark Forcucci 19-32-1 60%
Whit Jewett 9 rec 113 yds
Seth Kortenhoeven 4 rec 47 yds
M. Crider 21 rush 67 yds 3 TDs



An incredible game in Waverly, IA where the Thunder made just enough plays to win. Wartburg loses at home for just the 3rd time in the last 6 years. 2 of those wins are by CCIW teams.

Stat of the game was Wheaton converting on 8-12 3rd down conversions and 2 of those became 4th down conversion (2-2 on 4th down). Wheaton was incredible in the clutch. Forcucci, Crider and Jewett made some incredible plays in a game that saw multiple lead changes and Wheaton survived a hail mary on the last play to secure the win.

Wheaton sacked Leo Dodd 2x and Wartburg didn't sack Forcucci at all and the Knights DL was largely held in check.

Great win for the Thunder and the CCIW. @DePauw next week who beat UWW

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 26, 2025, 10:57:20 AMRegarding the Wheaton–Wartburg matchup, Logan's model isn't the only one that favors the Thunder. Massey has them as a 3-point favorite in Waverly. If the offensive line can hold Wartburg's front four at bay, I think they have a good chance of moving on.

Wheaton will need their "dudes" to show up in Waverly on Saturday. 2 yrs ago up at Whitewater we had a few dudes and they played out of their mind to give Wheaton a shot against UWW, whom most thought would be the main challenger to NCC that year (Wartburg had other plans). Wheaton put up 42 pts against a top 10 defense and their QB , Ben Thorson was 26-41 for 402 yds and 5 TDs. Their AA WR Bonga was covered all day by UWW's 1st team AA DB Egon Hein and he made him look silly, combining with Kortenhoeven for 14 catches, 207 yds and 3 TDs. And Gio Weeks, Wheaton's AA RB had 21 rushes for 128 yds and 1 TD. It helped that Wheaton had one of their better OL's in recent memory.

The Thunder won't be intimidated playing in Waverly, where Wartburg has only lost 2x at home in 5 seasons under Chris Winter, both in the playoffs (Bethel last year and NCC in 2023). Wheaton has played @Mt Union and @NCC this year. In those games, QB Mark Forcucci was held to 54% completions vs Mt Union and sacked 3x and 57% vs NCC and sacked 5x. He will have to play better for the Thunder to win. That's almost half the sacks for the year in those two games. Kortenhoeven caught 11 balls for 102 yds and 2 TD's vs Mt Union and 2 for 27 yds vs NCC. Peter Johanik has generally played well on defense in those big games. Vs Mt Union he led the defense with 12 tackles and added a sack and vs NCC he had 7 tackles and 1.5 TFL. All these guys will have to play at the top of their games for the Thunder and at least 1 or 2 other guys will have to become "dudes" this week to advance.

So after having to use my best deductive thinking to figure out who and what team #98 plays for and who he may have faced named Maples in 2023 I figured out you are talking about Wartburg DT Jake Walker and NCC OL Jeske Maples and the NCC v Wartburg Matchup from 2 yrs ago.

I am well aware of Jake Walker as he leads the team in sacks and TFL (along with fellow DL Conner McDonald). They were both 1st team all ARC for a reason and those two lead the way for a disruptive and dominant DL. Believe me when I say they are the two guys I'm most worried about though MLB and DPOY Keenan Tyler is in that group. When Wartburg subs in their nickel defense the two DL that stay in are those two and Keenan Tyler plays DE. To be honest, I'm hoping he doesn't catch my attention too much on Saturday.

I don't see weather being a factor for either team.  Unless temps are below zero and snow is ankle deep it shouldn't be a factor.

Apologies in advance—this is a bit of a ramble.

One of the biggest challenges in predicting outcomes in Division III football is the limited data set. With only a 10-game schedule, it's nothing like the massive sample sizes in professional basketball (82 games) or baseball (162 games). On top of that, D3 teams rarely play meaningful cross-regional games, which makes comparisons even harder.

Playoff football at this level is usually won at the line of scrimmage. The problem is that most conferences only have zero, one, or maybe two teams that can legitimately test an opponent's offensive or defensive line. That's one reason the WIAC is so tough: every week is a physical test, and most of those teams also play strong non-conference schedules. You get a truer read on their ability in the trenches.

But in recent years, WIAC teams haven't advanced as far in the postseason. My working theory is that once you reach the playoffs, nearly every opponent can match you up front—so skill players start to matter much more. A great running back can't shine if the line is losing the battle every snap. The same is true for quarterbacks (see: the Chiefs' struggles vs. the Eagles in the Super Bowl). And recently the WIAC just hasn't had many high-end skill players. When was the last time UW-Whitewater had a dominant QB? How many WIAC players sit in the top 25 nationally at the major skill-position stats? River Falls might be the exception this year, and I'm excited to see how they handle a postseason run.

Contrast that with North Central. Their dominance has traditionally started up front—especially on the offensive line—and behind that they've had Gagliardi-winning quarterbacks (twice) and a Gagliardi-winning running back. This year, their defensive front might be the best we've seen in five-plus years, anchored by a potential D3 Defensive Player of the Year in JP Sullivan. Behind him are two All-America-caliber linebackers and a physical, athletic secondary with one or two more AAs. The one unknown is the offensive line. It might be "business as usual," but last year's Stagg Bowl line was generationally good. Even if this group doesn't reach that level, I suspect they're still strong enough—especially with the WRs, RBs, and QB behind them. Still, there are a couple of teams on their path that will test them, and if NCC doesn't win it all this year, it'll likely be because someone finally stopped the run and forced them to be one-dimensional.

Bethel is another team I like. They look solid up front and have excellent skill and perimeter players. The question with them, like NCC, is whether they've faced anyone close to semifinal-level competition yet. Even so, they absolutely pass the eye test.

Every year, fans of certain teams roll into the postseason thinking "this is the year" or "this is our best team ever." Then we lose in the Round of 32 or 16 and blame execution or officiating. But more often, the truth is simpler: we overestimated our team. When a supposedly dominant front gets neutralized, you need elite skill players—true "dudes"—to make the difference. For NCC, Luke Lehnen did exactly that; he tilted close games their way. This year, I'm not sure who those guys will be, but I'm keeping an eye on players like Kaleb Blaha, Mike Maloney, Thomas Skokna and Garrett Wilson, Cooper Drews and Albert Rundell, Geoff Schroeder, and yes, Mark Forcucci and Seth Kortenhouven.

In the playoffs, you need dominant offensive and defensive fronts. And when those units cancel each other out, you need your dudes to step up and carry you through.

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 25, 2025, 04:43:45 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 24, 2025, 05:23:35 PMIntersting matchup since while Wheaton is balanced, their strength isn't rushing, which negates a little of Wart's edge.

Wartburg's rush defense has the better stats, but I don't know if I would say the rush D is "better" than the pass D - it's just the nature of the defense (and teams have stopped even trying to run on them). I wouldn't be surprised if they have the lowest average depth of target against in the country, and they are second in the country in yards per reception allowed (8.6 yards/rec, UChicago is at 8.5 yards/rec). They're very, very good at perimeter tackling and preventing completions beyond 10 yards.

Certainly this is a by product of how Wartburg plays defense. Almost exclusively zone with 2 or 3 deep all the time. No big plays, keep everything in front of you and gang tackle. They must be close to the best team in the country in not allowing Yds after contact. Zone also yields more interceptions than man to man (14). And 26 sacks almost all from the DL.

For North Central they face a pretty strong Hanover team playing it's best football. They have the #13 defense in the country and they held early season top 15 Grove City to 15 pts last Saturday. And they can throw it around with a top 25 pass offense. If they can protect the QB  and hold up defensively against the run, they might make some noise in Naperville.

Wheaton v Wartburg is a great matchup. Wheaton has a legit offense  and an opportunistic defense. Wartburg has a legit defense and a ball control, physical offense. Its strength on strength. Wartburgs rush defense is #4 in the country and they are the real deal, giving up 43 yds a game on the ground. They shutout UW Stout, held Coe to 24 yds rushing (averaged 220 yds) and Central to 34 yds rushing (avg 180). They play mostly zone defense and don't blitz much at all. Their DL is dominant. They have 3 of 4 with double digit tackles for loss and their MLB is DPOY in the ARC. 26 sacks in 10 games almost all of which are the DL as they don't blitz. The most impressive thing about their DL is they are all good at getting off blocks. They have given up some pass yds but when you get in the redzone, that zone gets awfully tight. They are the #5 scoring defense for a reason.  they sit back in a zone and keep everything in front of them and then come up and gang tackle aggressively. They have 14 Interceptions on the season, which you would expect out of a zone team. It takes a disciplined and physical offense to drive the ball the length of the field without making a mistake (TFL, fumble, INT, sack) and Wartburg defense are great tacklers so they don't give up much Yds after contact. Wheaton has its work cut out for them.

That said, Forcucci and Co. are well suited for this. They have a stable of receivers and running backs that make them difficult to defend and he gets rid of the ball  quickly. If the Wheaton OL holds up against this DL I think the Thunder can score. This defense isn't as good as NCC but it's better than Mt Union's defense.

Wartburgs offense looks a lot like Wheaton. The difference is Wartburg is absolutely committed to the run game. They run it 60-65% of the time and they won't get away from that if they don't have to. Yet their QB gets rid of the ball quickly and completes 63% of his passes to a diverse group of WR's (sound familiar?). The QB was 2nd team all ARC and he can make all the throws. I saw him throw a 15 yd out cut from the right hash to a WR who was pretty well covered and he completed it outside the left numbers. Toughest throw in football to make. 

Hazzbeen mentioned Wheaton will have to score in the 20+ pt range to win and I think that's right. If Wheaton can put up 24-34 pts that gives them a great chance. Defensively, the Thunder have to avoid big plays and maintain gap discipline on defense. And if you can get Dodd (Wartburg QB) off his first read he has a tendency to hold the ball and you can get to him.

I can't imagine what Logan Hansen put into his flux capacitor to make Wheaton a 5.3pt favorite on the road to his alma maters stadium, but here we are. This time I hope he's right.

I've heard the "our guys only play 2 quarters a week" argument before. A couple of notes: 1-this is true for many of the top teams still playing and Johns Hopkins, Mt Union, North Central all still have 1,000 yd rushers. And each of those schools have 2 RB's. 2-That's because if you are beating the pants off these teams your RB's are averaging 8 yds per carry instead of 5 yds per carry. Mt Union's top guys have 131 and 75 carries, NCC's top guys have 127 and 85 carries and JHU's top guys have 176 and 94 carries. Bethel's top guys have 131 and 101 carries. This isn't a knock on Bethel, just pointing out the 2 quarters a week excuse is not really relevant. There could be other issues like RPO's, QB run schemes, etc.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 23, 2025, 12:29:24 PMLogan's round 2 projections.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Round%202.html

Wheaton a 5 pt favorite at Logan's Wartburg? That's some serious home cooking Hansen. You gotta go badk and tweak your algorithms. Invest in a couple Nvidia chips to run more simulations.

I think Emma's great-grandnephew's cousin has a full ride to Northern Illinois.