River Falls front's are huge:

OL Heights: 6-9, 6-5, 6-3, 6-6, 6-4,
TE: 6-5
WR: 6-5, 6-5, 6-3, 5-11
QB: 6-2
RB: 6-2

DL: 6-4, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
LB: 6-1, 6-0, 6-1
DB: 6-0, 6-5, 6-1, 6-0

1 starting player that's not 6'+

Even the Kicker and punter are 6-1

I'll be shocked if this is a track meet. JP Sullivan is the most unblockable Defensive player in the country and Bethel is gonna struggle with him like everybody else. Against Wheaton we got shut out and ran for -2 yds. That's almost exclusively because of JP Sullivan. On the other hand, I think Bethel is well suited to stymie the NCC offense and if they win it's a low scoring affair. Conant and Williams are playmakers. If NCC scores 30 I don't think Bethel has a chance. But I have been wrong many times before.....

Quote from: bleedpurple on Yesterday at 07:57:07 AMI have no idea how much the bitter conditions will affect the midwest games, but to me (irrespective of Hansen Ratings type data), there is about a 20% chance NCC will be eliminated in the playoffs before Wheaton. I do think River Falls will win, but that's probably because I saw them play in person and have not seen Wheaton. They are big and fast, but more than that their execution was brilliant when I saw them. I'm probably the only one, but I truly think Bethel/NCC is a toss up.

That's the thing w football right? You see a team and they play well and that shapes your view. The problem w football is we have such a limited data set its hard to predict. Heck there are certain Mt Union posters who thought Grove City was better than Wheaton. To be fair, they never played so who knows. People who watched Wheaton win at Wartburg are thinking, Wow they are good. Those who watched them lost to UMU think they aren't any good. UWW  had a very impressive win v UMHB and then DePauw beat them in Janesville.....etc, etc. Wheaton beat NCC in 2019 and was a top seed. NCC made it as one of the last teams in the field as a pool C. Wheaton loses on a penalty at home at the end vs St Johns and NCC wins the Stagg with a single loss to Wheaton. Going into the playoffs, Wheaton was very much one of the favorites for the Stagg. NCC was an afterthought.

There are few things that travel well. We all know Blaha is elite as he is consistent across multiple seasons. We all know the LOS wins games. UWRF has 1 player (Blaha) who can take over a game. They a bunch of other great players as well but I don't think they have others at the level of Blaha in terms of difference makers.

NCC had Lehnen and an elite offensive line the last 4 years. Those players were a cut above even other team's great players. NCC doesn't have that on offense this year. They are great, but they don't have a Lehnen type or an OL with guys like Maples and Pryor (Cortez is close). They have an elite WR in Skokna. On Defense they have a guy who is a superior player in JP Sullivan. the kid is virtually unblockable (remember Kleppe?). They also have 2-3 other AA types on defense. I feel pretty confident that Bethel is gonna struggle with JP Sullivan. Everybody does. Bethel seems to have 2 difference makers among many great players on defense. Conant and Williams make plays against everybody (Conant was hurt last week).

I would be shocked if Bethel wins in a shootout because I don't think they can score 28+ pts on NCC. I do think they can hold NCC to a low output on offense and can win a lower scoring game. If NCC puts up 30+ it's over in my opinion. But I have been really wrong before so who knows........these games are when the next Lehnen's are born (Zac Boyes anyone?). For Wheaton I'm hoping Mark Forcucci is the next Boyes. That's the beauty of these playoffs.

I think Bethel has as good a chance as anyone in the field to beat NCC.

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 11, 2025, 06:24:34 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 11, 2025, 10:09:37 AMWheaton is peaking at the right time, imo. I smell an upset.

I can't figure out if Mount Union just really regressed since their week 1 game against Wheaton, or Wheaton just played a bad 1st 3 quarters against Mount and is in fact a semi-final level team

Wheaton had a lot of new faces week 1. 3 new OL, 3 WR that were like new to this qb (missed previous yr due to injury, 7 new defensive starters. Vs UMU Wheaton got smoked by Maloney and Co with a relatively new secondary. They actually held up well against the run and had little trouble moving the ball  but didn't finish a few early drives. Th Thunder certainly got hot and have stayed relatively healthy late in the season.

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 11, 2025, 06:16:46 PM

Quote from: emma17 on December 11, 2025, 03:03:01 PMIt might be the 02 Warhawk (worry wart) coming out in me, the Wheaton matchup is a big concern. UWRF has great skill players and they're pretty good in the trenches.
However, Wheaton has the most proficient run/pass capabilities UWRF will see to date I believe. Wheaton has had no problem running on the teams that were supposed to be run stoppers- and they stop the run. Likely Blaha will be called on to do even more (not sure how much more the guy can do). If Blaha gets neutralized at all, trouble in River City.

I'm not sure a data point from 16 or so weeks ago matters much, but watching the Wheaton UMU game in person I wasn't super impressed with Wheaton in terms of eye test. They got the doors blown off until Mount started to take out starters in the 4th quarter when they were already up 37-14.

Of course Mount Union may have regressed since then or Wheaton could have improved, but as a neutral observer I think UW-R wins by like 2-3 TDs

The legend of UMU v Wheaton grows with each retelling.  The facts are UMU pulled their QB and WRs for two series in the 4th quarter. OL stayed the same and the first team defense never subbed out.  Wheaton made it a 1 score game

Just so the data is here (FWIW):

National Rankings:

Wheaton:
Total Offense: #24 (rush #97, Pass #18)
Scoring Offense: #5 (Tied)
Total Defense: #57 (rush #49, Pass #122)
Scoring Defense: #51

UWW:
Total Offense: #88 (rush #43, Pass #158)
Scoring Offense: #65
Total Defense: #28 (rush #23, Pass #92)
Scoring Defense: #25

UWP:
Total Offense: #42 (rush #83, Pass #47)
Scoring Offense: #53
Total Defense: #121 (rush #61, Pass #185)
Scoring Defense: #53

UWLAX:
Total Offense: #71 (Rush #126, Pass #58)
Scoring Offense: #90
Total Defense: #74 (Rush #88, Pass #91)
Scoring Defense: #62

River Falls:
Total Offense: #1 (Rush #18, Pass 35)
Scoring Offense: #5
Total Defense: #77 (rush #20, Pass #189)

I wouldn't be so quick to say Wheaton is a run stopper. They certainly were against DePauw. They ran for 190 yds and held them to 59. But NCC ran for 279 and held Wheaton to -2 rushing. WashU ran for 150 and Wheaton had 102 and Wartburg ran for 180 while Wheaton had 112.

Wheaton's defense can be disruptive but they can be had as well. They have certainly gotten better at the end of the year and in these playoffs. I think Blaha will do his thing and the key will more likely rest on Wheaton's ability to keep pace and steal a few possessions.

Quote from: hazzben on December 10, 2025, 11:33:48 AMPat made the point on the podcast that how teams perform against their season averages or stop their opponent by comparison is a solid predictor of outcomes. In other words, DePauw didn't hit their insane rushing D stats against UWW, but they still performed closer to their average than UWW did to their offensive rush stats. On the flip side, Wheaton ran for over 190 against DePauw and held them significantly below their own rushing average.
UWP rushed for 160 ypg, against Alma they put up 205, outperformed and won, but against BU they were held to 60 below their average. Bethel has averaged 234 ypg on the ground and UWP only gives up 112, but BU put up 259. Bethel is also averaging around 255 a game in the playoffs and 275 ypg over their last 4. The ground game seems to be gaining steam, right as it's about to face it's most formidable challenge by a wide margin.

NCC averages 268 ypg rushing and 227 ypg throwing, giving up 62 and 157 respectively on D. Against UWL they rushed for 229 and threw for 179. Really solid balance and performance against their average and an opponent with a solid D. UWL only rushed for 71, but threw for 347.

Bethel averages 234 rushing and 270 passing. Gives up 56 rushing and 176 passing.

Those numbers for NCC and Bethel are pretty stinking close on all counts. Who can perform closest to their normal output and limit the other?? Bethel has to be able to throw, and do better on the ground than UWL did. Then is the DLine healthy enough and able to hold them below 200 yds on the ground, something no one but Hanover, assisted by a blizzard, has done to date.

Great post Hazz. This analysis boils down to who is better up front which is how most games get decided. Bethel is the first team I have seen that has the style to battle NCC up front. It remains to be seen if they have the horses. Their history and culture would indicate they will be equal to the task. They are gonna need Conant who I don't think played vs UWP. This NCC defensive front is really good and one of their better fronts they have had during their Stagg run IMO. Their OL is the spot of uncertainty for me. I think Bethel has a chance to neutralize the NCC OL and pressure the QB, who hasn't responded well to the limited pressure he has gotten this year.

Bethel has the horses up front and the skill players to give NCC all they can handle and I'm excited for this matchup. I don't see another team left that matches up with NCC's strengths and weaknesses as well as Bethel does.

Two stats I would highlight for the Wheaton @ UWRF game Saturday. UWRF runs on average 86 offensive plays a game, which is about 20 more than their opponents. That's a lot more offense. Their up tempo style keeps substitutions low and generally simplifies the defensive strategy while tiring them out over the course of a game. UWRF has run more plays in every game than their opponent. The closest spread I have seen is the past weekend when UWRF ran 80 plays and St Johns ran 70.

The second stat is that UWRF is tied for 2nd in the country in Turnovers generated. They have 22 INTs and 10 Fumble Recoveries this season.

These two stats together are a deadly combo. If RF runs 80+ plays (a couple games they have run 90-100) and the other team gives them 2+ extra possessions, it's hard to win. And that's before you factor in the personnel with Blaha, Timms, etc.

A final stat I would mention is that Wheaton and UWRF are coincidentally tied at 219th (out of 241 ranked teams) in fumbles given. That's a bad stat for both teams but I think one that might factor heavily in this game.

To me, Wheaton's QB Mark Forcucci doesn't throw a lot of Interceptions (just 6 this year on 35 TDs). If he does in this game Wheaton is toast. Assuming he does not, then the fumbles giveaway/takeaway will be critical. If Wheaton can take care of the football and go on some multi play, time consuming, 14 play drives that end in scores, that's potentially a recipe for success. And if they can get a couple fumbles/INT's to steal a couple extra possessions, all the better.

Blaha is really elite at what he does. He and his supporting cast are going to score. Wheaton will need to keep up, take care of the ball and figure out a way to steal a couple extra possessions in mind. Wheaton's defense has speed, just not as much size and strength relative to the big boy WIAC champs. They will have to utilize that to their advantage. DE Johanik and Kroger are going to have to be special and disciplined. When you let Blaha outside the pocket, bad things happen.

Quote from: Raider 68 on December 10, 2025, 03:10:05 PMJust saw that Jason Candle is leaving Toledo for UMass and a new HC was announced. Apparently, Toledo did not want VK as a HC.
Hope he moves on from Toledo in a bigger assignment. Is he still a candidate for Nebraska DC?

VK was named DC at Syracuse last week I believe

https://x.com/CuseFootball/status/1997453113129627823?s=20

Bled-Check your DM's.....

Awful news. Condolences to the NCC family. Jeff Thorne was a good man. Blessings to his family

Quote from: hazzben on December 09, 2025, 01:24:23 PMWhere Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

BTW Hazz, this is a great post. Love this data.

Wheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

When you can run the ball and are focused on stopping the run, you can be competitive in most games.