F&M lost in the semifinal and is projected to take an at-large spot.

If Gettysburg beats Johns Hopkins today, they would "steal" the AQ and JH would be on the at-large bubble. 

The teams listed below are the last five projected to get an large bid. Johns Hopkins controls their own destiny. It feels like this is over simplifying things, but if there is one bid thief Otterbein would be out, two would eliminate Otterbein and Amherst and so on. Open to more expert opinions.

Johns Hopkins   
UW-Platteville   
WPI   
Amherst   
Otterbein   

Definitely unfortunate regarding Gyimesi. That drops Tufts down a tier if he can't play going forward.

Speaking of tiers, I feel as though Bates will have a tough time winning two games. They have had too many extreme swings in the second halves of games to make them a consistent threat. Maybe they prove us wrong.

I feel like if two or three of the teams listed below win their league things will get tight for Amherst. Fingers crossed for them and the NESCAC getting five teams.

Still some potential bids thieves out there:

CC – Gettysburg (vs. Johns Hopkins who is probably safe)
CNE – Western New England (vs. Endicott who is a lock)
NEWMAC – Wheaton (vs. Babson who is probably safe)
SCIA – Chapman (vs. Redlands who is a lock)
SCAC – Concordia (vs. St. Thomas who is lock)

Great insight all around on this.

I think Gyimesi is the front runner and deservedly so.

If Cuevas was to win, it would be 2nd time in conference history that the player of the year was from a team that didn't finish 1st or 2nd (or at least tied for that place) in the standings. Someone can fact check me on that.

I also think the players in contention for Trinity and Wesleyan could ultimately split votes.

The coaches are definitely noticing the play of Gyimesi, particularly after his last two games (against Bates and Colby) where he averaged 23 points and 12.5 rebounds, while shooting 68% from the field. Hopefully he is healthy heading into this weekend.

Regarding a bid, I think Amherst is in good shape, in large part because of their wins against Tufts and Wesleyan. Hoping to see the NESCAC get five teams in!

Beating Wesleyan will be a tall task for Bates. I agree that it will likely be a closer game, partially because it won't be a back-to-back for Bates. They played at Trinity the night before their last meeting in early February.

I hope Amherst hangs on and the NESCAC gets five teams in. It will likely come down to how many bids get stolen.

Ziggy or others:

Does the success of an opponent you beat impact a team's NPI ranking?

For instance, Babson beat Tufts. If Babson loses Tuesday in the first round of the NEWMAC tournament and Tufts wins the NESCAC, will those additional wins for Tufts be a benefit to Babson? 

I'm also perplexed by the 7 player all conference teams. Seems to have started during the 23-24 season.

Wondering when the five years of eligibility started - regarding Regan and others. Could he have played another year at Wesleyan - they have a graduate program.

deiscanton - I hope I didn't speak it into existence. The UAA (like the NESCAC) is such a difficult league. Every game is valuable, and a win or two would definitely move them up the board.

Contrary to the simulations, I still feel like the season will be over for the loser of the Amherst/Bates game. I hope for the sake of the league that I'm wrong and they both get in.

If they lose to Amherst on Saturday, Bates will have lost 4 of their final 5 games.

Ziggy - appreciate the rankings and we hope the simulations are accurate for the NESCAC (arguably the best conference along with the UAA) getting five teams in the tournament.

I think a Bates (NPI 27) win today OR a win at Amherst (NPI 30) in the quarterfinals puts them in a good spot. Losing both and they would need some help. If Amherst comes up short against Bates (or Bowdoin in the other scenario), they will likely have to cross their fingers.

As nescac1 mentioned, the potential Bates at Amherst matchup next weekend could be somewhat on an elimination game due to some likely chaos across the other conferences.

I think the coaches are definitely factoring in what players affect winning the most when voting on post season awards. They have the best sense of that, particularly when seeing the players live.

Amherst is rolling! They have won 6 in a row and 10 of their last 12. The two (close) losses were on the road against Trinity and Wesleyan. Definitely playing like a tournament team. Credit to Coach Sears and his staff.

Seems like the magic is running out for Bates. Hosting Conn this Friday in what seems like a must win. 

Does the Northeast region seem down this year?

Per NPI - UAA (1) and NESCAC (2) are the top conferences.

Looks like the following are the only non-NESCAC teams in the at-large conversation:

Endicott - I think they are in even if they don't win the CNE tournament; beat Tufts early in the season and lost to Colby

WPI - trending in the right direction for an at-large regardless of the NEWMAC tournament results; lost to Tufts and beat Middlebury; beat Babson twice

Babson - Also in the NEWMAC and just behind WPI per the NPI rankings; beat Tufts and lost to Trinity; beat Brandeis

Brandeis - I likely see them playing themselves out of the at-large conversation; they still have a tough UAA stretch of Emory, Chicago, Wash U and NYU; beat Bowdoin and lost to Conn

Regarding the Cuevas conversation: Is last year (Hank Morgan - Hamilton) the first time in conference history that the player of the year was from a team that didn't finish 1st or 2nd (or at least tied for that place) in the standings? He is legit, but I think team success is going to win out in this one.

D3BBALL - I agree that one of the three Maine teams could steal a game or two in CT, but I also think that Tufts could drop one of their road games to Amherst, Hamilton or Bates.

Tufts
Remaining schedule: at Amherst; at Hamilton; at Bates
Tough road slate to end the season. Amherst has picked up momentum playing at home – this is their fourth straight home conference game. The trip to Hamilton is always daunting and they have been competitive in their recent games. The game at Bates will be the final game of league play and the only one 2/15. Tufts escaped at home last year with an OT win.

Wesleyan
Remaining schedule: Bates; Bowdoin; Colby
I see them winning out and locking up the one seed. Bates comes to town after playing Trinity the night before and I don't think Bowdoin/Colby have what it takes on both ends to hang with them for 40 minutes, particularly on the road.

Trinity
Remaining schedule: Bates; Colby; Bowdoin
Same schedule as Wesleyan and I also see them winning out. Seems like they are always a bad matchup for Bates and same as above for Colby and Bowdoin from a talent/depth standpoint. They lost the tiebreaker against Tufts and Wesleyan, so I likely see them getting the three seed unless Tufts trips up.

Amherst
Remaining schedule: Tufts; Conn; at Middlebury; at Williams
From an NPI standpoint, it seems as though a win against Tufts would put them in a good spot for an at-large bid, a sweep would be even better. As was stated earlier, they can beat anybody, particularly when they are home. Wins against Middlebury or Williams won't move the needle, but a lost could hurt.

Bates
Remaining schedule: at Trinity; at Wesleyan; Conn; Tufts
They will be underdogs against Trinty and Wesleyan, but stranger things have happened in NESCAC play. The Conn game will be a challenge and a fight for conference seeding. Tufts may already have their seeding decided before they come to town. Likely need to beat Conn and at least one of the top three to keep pace.

Conn
Remaining schedule: at Hamilton; at Amherst; at Bates
Same challenging road games as Tufts – three tough teams/venues. I think they need to win out (and hats off to them if they do) to get into the at-large conversation. A win against Hamilton won't be a huge help, but they can't afford a loss. Wins against Amherst and Bates would be a boost from a NPI standpoint.