HansenRatings' takes on this week's games:

@Millsaps 25 Maryville 38 - Scots 79% to win
@Sewanee 8 Berry 40 - Vikings 98% to win
@Trinity 49 Rhodes 7 - Tigers 99+% to win
@Centre 34 Southwestern 25 - Colonels 71% to win

As always, Hansen seems to underrate Maryville and I'll take them by another TD.  Berry seems likely to win by more as well. 

Greg Thomas' D3football.com feature this week is on Maryville's rise to the top of the SAA.

#16 Southwestern 2 UMHB 2

After giving up a goal in the 30th minute to UMHB's Karsen Macias, Southwestern dominated run of play and thought they had their twelfth victory of the season in hand when Greyson Pinto's sixth of the season put the Pirates up in the 82nd minute.  But with time running down, Yannis Banae found the net in the 88th to give the Cru (10-1-3) possibly their best result of the season.

Southwestern (11-0-3) outshot UMHB 25-11, doubled their SOG 10-5, but Brett LaPorte made seven saves to keep the Cru in it. 

I was half right.  UMHB gets a goal in the 88th minute to salvage a 2-2 tie.  Good result for the Cru!

Quote from: SKUD on October 15, 2025, 01:03:21 PMKuiper that is a big game!  Do either of those teams have a good chance vs Trinity?

Although I think Southwestern wins tonight 2-0 (unless they go on another binge like they did last week against a pretty good Sewanee team) it's worth noting the Cru's record against Southwestern all time is 7-3-1, against Trinity 4-9-0.  I agree UMHB has not played the level of competition Trinity has and another example in addition to those Kuiper pointed out lost 1-3 to a St. Thomas team that Trinity led 2-0 before the match was called in the 25th minute due to inclement weather. 

Southwestern is playing incredibly well on defense this season, allowing only four goals in thirteen matches while scoring 30.  Combine that with the long-standing rivalry with Trinity in all sports (it's not quite HSU-UMHB but it's pretty intense) and you don't know what will happen on the last day of the regular season.  I'm sure the Pirates are motivated to get a second win in the series (1-34-4). 

For their part, Trinity has given up seven goals in eleven matches while scoring 32. 

Trinity finally posted their WBB schedule on Instagram yesterday.  They are on the road a LOT this season, if I counted correctly 15 of their 25 games are on the road.  Other than SAA games:

OLLU (exhibition - NAIA)
@Incarnate Word (exhibition - D1)
Emory
@Illinois Wesleyan tournament
- Millikan @IWU
@HSU
@McMurry
Concordia TX
TLU
@MHB pre-Christmas tournament
- ETBU @MHB
- MHB @ETBU post-Christmas tournament
@ETBU

SAA play begins at home Jan 3 against Soutwestern and there are no non-conference games once that starts.  3 straight home, 4 straight away, 4 straight home, 3 straight away.

LOL.  Just showing the difference between the top of Regions 10 and 6.

And I told USC that Southwestern and Trinity are now in NCAA Region 6.  Fools!

Just for fun, the Region VI NPI top ten:

1. Emory (10-0-2)
2. Lynchburg (10-0-2)
3. Southwestern (11-0-2)
4. Christopher Newport (8-1-4)
5. Trinity (TX) (10-1)
6. Hampden-Sydney (8-1-3)
7. Pfeiffer (6-0-2)
8. Virginia Wesleyan (7-4-1)
-- Colorado College slots in here
9. Washington & Lee (5-2-5)
10. Sewanee (8-2-3)

Speaking of NPI, Logan Hansen stated today on Xitter that the SAA champion is only the 10th most likely to receive a top 8 seed and the protections that provides.  I pinged him about the chances if Maryville goes undefeated and in that case it would be 99%; winning the championship with one loss, 14%.  For one-loss non-SAA champions, he assigns both Maryville and Trinity a 100% chance of a Pool C bid - with a two-loss Berry team having a 98% chance.  He assigns a two-loss Trinity a 62% Pool C chance; a two-loss Maryville, 13%.

Logan said his models are "still hesitant to give them [the Scots] very good odds of getting to 10-0".  That probably won't change much until they play Berry the second weekend of November.

SAA title would require a three way tie and the Pool A winner would be determined by head-to-head point differential.  With Trinity -23 and Berry +23 pending the results of both against Maryville that ship has probably sailed.  They'll get a Pool C if they win out and almost certainly only if they win out. 

Pat Coleman had Berry HC Tony Kunczewski on their "Fast Five" podcast segment and it's worth a listen.  They have their largest senior roster (31) since the very early days of the program, and besides providing that valuable leadership and on-field ability these are guys that had seen Berry lose to Trinity three years running in painstaking fashion:

• 2024, missed their last three PAT tries (one missed, a 2pt attempt failed, the third blocked), game goes into OT, Berry possession ends in an INT and  (after just missing a 57-yard attempt at the end of regulation) Huettel does the honors in a 38-35 win
• 2023, jump out to a 29-13 lead at home only to allow Trinity to score the next 21 points, then after the Vikings regain the lead and Huettel hits a 52-yarder to tie it, Berry gets stuffed for their only 3-and-out of the day. Trinity scores on the next possession and then Berry gets called for a hold in the end zone on their next possession, resulting in a safety making the margin nine points and putting the game out of reach, 46-37.  The only loss of the 2023 season (pre-NPI) keeps Berry out of the playoffs.
• 2022, Berry is held to 190 yards total offense but trail by only a TD when they decide to punt from their 48 rather than go for it with 6:28 to go.  Trinity consumes the remaining time on a 12-play drive to win 21-14, thanks in part to a Berry player jumping offsides on a fourth-and-three with a couple of minutes left.

So yeah, they were kind of motivated. 

Three things:

• Trinity's one vote out of the top 25.  Considering how they were (sadly) manhandled in the second half that's not bad. Appearances matter to voters and that wasn't a good look.
• If they lose to Maryville, Trinity's NPI is as high now as it will be the rest of the season - even if they otherwise win out the teams they will be playing other than Maryville are much lower (e.g. Sewanee 155th; Rhodes 189th) and won't contribute a lot.
• Win out and they'll be a comfortable Pool C; if not, they stay home.

I don't see a path for UMHB to get a Pool C (112th in NPI) and given their performance this year it seems unlikely that they win the HSU rematch by a wide enough margin the secure the ASC AQ.  Beating HPU and ETBU twice, and assuming HSU does the same will destroy those two school's NPI which aren't all that great to begin with (85th, 118th respectively). 

Hats off to Berry.  They figured out something about our return game and we had crap field position all day.  When you constantly start inside your own 15 the options are limited.  And  their OL just owned the field.  We never figured out how to handle their defensive pressure and Hondo rarely had time to go through his progressions.

Back to the drawing board because the only way to make the playoffs now is to win out.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 10, 2025, 11:46:28 PMConference play begins this weekend.

So it is.  Wide open race with nobody coming into SCAC play over .500 (and only Hendrix at .500).  The only team probably not in the running for the SCAC's last six-team championship is Centenary (though you still have to wonder about Lyon and Austin).

Four of the six D3football.com Quick Hitspanelists, asked to choose which top 25 team will be upset this week, chose Trinity.

Born Power is responsible for Trinity's 5; it has UMHB-HSU-RMC-Berry-Trinity. 
Hansen goes Trinity-HSU-UMHB-Berry-Maryville (but the top three are very close, ranked 13,14,16 overall)

This weekend will help us sort out UMHB-HSU and Trinity-Berry.