I guess my point was simply that if there is still this much discussion about ETBU possibly being in, should we consider them definitively out?

Sorry to cause everyone such mental gymnastics!

Well you can just leave em red and hope umhb takes care of business; that's what rick reilly would do. Otherwise i think they're square green.  Umhb would have a horrible resume at that point.  If you take the name off the jersey there's no way they're second in line in tx in front of etbu. (Yes i realize there's a Texas sized if in etbu bathing umhb). Just passing devils advocate of the process.

Eh. When i read it again i think it's an oversight. Red is belief they are out of at large contention? (Will be true when umhb beats them, but hasn't happened yet.)

Quote from: pg04 on November 09, 2015, 09:43:55 PM

Quote from: timtlu on November 09, 2015, 09:39:21 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2015, 06:18:59 PM
The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

Because of their criteria in Bold, I would assume. WW can correct me if I'm wrong, which I am a lot.

I read that but assumed he meant in cases where this couldnt be changed in last week. With the h2h that could change for next week. Dawning on me now that maybe he recalculates each week? I was reading under assumption of espn eliminator. Once a team is in red theyre gone for the long haul

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2015, 06:18:59 PM
The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 8 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.

CCIW	HCAC	MIAA	NACC	NCAC	OAC
Carthage	Earlham	Hope	Cocnordia(Wis)	Allegheny	Muskingum
Augustana	Hanover	Alma	Aurora	Hiram	Marietta
North Park	Bluffton	Kalamazoo	Wis Lutheran	Wooster	Heidelberg
Millikin	Anderson	Adrian	Benedictine	Oberlin	Wilmington
North Central	Defiance	Trine	Lakeland	OWU	B-W
Elmhurst	MSJ	Olivet	CUC	Kenyon	Otterbein
Wheaton	Manchester	Albion	Rockford	Witt	Capital
IWU	Franklin			Denison	ONU
	RHIT			Wabash	Mount Union
				DePauw	John Carroll

---

IIAC	IND	MIAC	MWC	NWC	SCIAC	UMAC	WIAC
BVC	Finlandia*	St. Olaf	Lawrence	L&C	Redlands	IWC	Eau Claire
Dubuque	Maranatha*	Carleton	Macalester	Willamette	Chapman	Martin Luther	River Falls
Loras		Hamline	Carroll	PLU	Whittier	Greenville	La Crosse
Coe		Augsburg	Ripon	UPS	P-PC	Crown	Stout
Simpson		C-MC	Beloit	Pacific	CMS	MacMurray	SP
Luther		St. John's	Grinnell	George Fox	Laverne	Eureka	Oshkosh
Central		Bethel	Lake Forest	Whitworth	Occidental	Minn-Morris	Platteville
Wartburg		St. Thomas	IC	Linfield	Cal Lutheran	SSC	Whitewater
		Gustavus Adolphus	Cornell			Westminster
			Knox			Northwestern
			Monmouth
			St. Norbert

---

ASC	CC	ODAC	PAC	SAA	SCAC	USAC
LC*	McDaniel	Randolph-Macon	Grove City	Sewanee	Southwestern*	Averett
Bellhaven**	Juniata	Catholic	Thiel	Millsaps	Austin*	Ferrum
HPU*	Dickinson	E&H	Waynesburg	Hendrix	TLU*	NCWC
SRSU*	Ursinus	Bridgewater	CMU	Rhodes	Trinity*	LaGrange
McMurry***	Susquehenna	H-SC	Bethany	WashU		Greensboro
ETBU*	Muhlenberg	W&L	St. Vincent	B-SC		Huntingdon
UMHB*	Moravian	Shenandoah	Westminster	Centre		Methodist
H-SU*	Gettysburg	Guilford	Geneva	Berry		Maryville
	F&M		CWRU	Chicago
	Johns Hopkins		Thomas More
			W&J

---

ECFC	Empire 8	IND	LL	MAC	MASCAC	NEFC	NJAC
Mount Ida	Buffalo St.	Alfred St.**	Union	Misericordia	Worcester State	Curry	So Virginia
Anna Maria	Hartwick		St. Lawrence	Wilkes	Plymouth State	Nichols	TCNJ
Norwich	SJF		RPI	Leb Valley	Westfield State	Maine Maritime	Montclair St.
Gallaudet	Utica		USMMA	Lycoming	Bridgewater St.	Salve Regina	Salisbury
Husson	Morrisville St.		Springfield	King's	Western Conn.	MIT	WPU
Castleton	Brockport St.		WPI	FDU-F	Mass-Dartmouth	Endicott	CNU
Becker	Alfred		Hobart	Widener	Mass-Maritime	Coast Guard	Frostburg St.
SUNY-MC	Ithaca		Rochester	Del Valley	Framingham St.	Western NE	Rowan
	Cortland St.			Albright	Fitchburg State		Kean
				Stevenson			Wesley

** Provisional, ineligible for postseason
*** Reclassifying, ineligible for postseason

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2015, 06:23:32 PM

Quote from: Toby Taff on November 07, 2015, 06:18:31 PM

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2015, 05:43:27 PM
Hardin Simmons just lost to East Texas Baptist who is now in the drivers seat in the conference (but has 2 losses and probably not a strong pool B/C candidate) as they head to MHB next week---discuss

its asc circa 2003 with no AQ

Right--hypothetically, ETBU could win the conference and not make the playoffs while a team they beat (it would be HSU) could get in

does mcm loss count as a d3 opponent? If etbu beats umhb, etbu would be 2-1 vs rro with only d3 loss to rro tlu. Would they get bypassed by either hsu or umhb who would both be 1-2 vs rro and have h2h losses vs etbu?

Quote from: pg04 on November 07, 2015, 06:04:06 PM
Basically, since the team who gets in is at the whim of the committee and not an AQ, ETBU is basically a nonfactor and this game really meant nothing. It's less exciting than I thought :p . Should ETBU beat MHB next week it just makes it easier for them to select HSU. But either way it seems like HSU will still have the edge based on Head to head with MHB.

I don't know.  If this happens, assuming these four teams are all regionally ranked, you get this vs RRO.

ETBU (2-1)
HSU (2-1)
TLU (1-2)
UMHB (1-2)

ETBU or HSU seems the choice, with ETBU having the H2H win.

So do you think UMHB is basically playing a playoff game against ETBU now?  If they lose they would probably be 1 -2 vs RRO? (TLU, HSU, ETBU)

Quote from: umhb2001 on November 07, 2015, 05:52:14 PM

Quote from: timtlu on November 07, 2015, 05:49:02 PM
Does tiebreaker matter as there is no auto bid?  Isn't it the regional rankings that are going to be thrown into flux?

Tiebreaker matters a lot, because whoever is given the #1 will get the AQ.

Mea culpa.  I thought the ASC didn't have an AQ this year?

Does tiebreaker matter as there is no auto bid?  Isn't it the regional rankings that are going to be thrown into flux?

UMHB....... are there usually more fans at the home games?  It was hard to get a read on if the UMHB crowd was still sparse today or if it just looked bare because of the immense amount of seating on that side.

Quote from: umhb2001 on November 23, 2014, 03:53:14 PM
Nothing but love for TLU, their coaches, and players. The gameplan was worked to a T, and you have to feel great about next season even with the loss.

Hopefully with another couple close games a bigger rivalry can take flight.  I would think after today's game both fan bases will be well represented in Belton next year.  With the toll road connecting the two schools it'd be nice to develop a rivalry akin to some of the east coast tilts out there.

I'm going to take a stab in the dark here and guess you were listening to the UMHB feed?

Shows why it is important to throw MoV out the window once a game is firmly in hand (nor write off a team solely due to a blowout to one of the super elites).  There's just too many variables in play as to why those margins can climb so high,  especially when you have teams that are almost assuredly going to see each other again that season.

Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.

Not quite right.