I'm a fan of the Massey Ratings.  I think they do a pretty good job at objectively ranking the teams in various sports.  If you review their latest Division III Men's Soccer rankings (through Sunday's games), these are the teams that have the biggest gripe about being left out of the tournament:

Elmhurst (No. 24)
Haverford (No. 25)
Rensselaer (No. 28)
Kalamazoo (No. 31)
Worcester Tech (No. 32)

These are the at-large teams that should be thankful the Massey Ratings aren't relevant:

Dominican (No. 33)
Rochester (No. 34)
Salisbury St. (No. 37)
Brockport St. (No. 51)
Texas-Dallas (No. 60)

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 11, 2014, 11:16:59 PM
Bloecher generally isn't going to dribble a lot or cut through 4 defenders, but he has an uncanny ability to find the right spots to be dangerous, and he can hurt you in several different ways.  He's not often going to score from 25 yard blasts (although he can), but his runs into the box and plays inside the box are top-notch and he finishes his chances at a very high clip.  He's also a high level competitor and extremely clutch.   Also very dangerous on any free kicks from 25 yards and in.  I'd have to see Vegter play again to be sure, but I tend to think Bloecher and Payne are more versatile while Vegter has a lethal shot and will score if he has space from 25-28 yards out with regularity.

As an MIAA fan, I have seen Vegter play numerous times over the last few years.  He plays the game as if his life depends upon his team winning, with a drive and enthusiasm and aggression I have rarely, if ever, seen at this level.  His ability to finish a scoring opportunity, whether inside or outside the box, is second to none.  He is both fast and quick, but I would describe his ability to beat one or more defenders off the dribble as slightly above average but not elite.  Bottom line, he will do whatever it takes to lead his team to victory, from diving to draw a PK to giving up his body to force a turnover to striking a laser from 25 yards out into the upper 90.

My "bid" to predict the Final Four and Champion:

Final Four
F&M
Messiah
Calvin
Trinity

Semis
Trinity over Calvin (2-1)
Messiah over F&M (3-1)

Championship
Messiah over Trinity (1-0)

Good stuff, Christan, especially given the fact that you have a newborn at home.  I would only add two notes to your predictions:

- I believe Tufts is a definite bubble team due to their quarterfinal defeat and possibly one of the last ones in or out.

- I could see the committee looking at Kalamazoo and their three victories over Hope and putting them in Hope's shoes, for regional ranking purposes (i.e., concluding they should have been ranked in Hope's place and giving them credit for that).  If they did that, one could see Kzoo getting a Pool C bid.  However, it could just as easily go as you predict (i.e., they weren't ranked, so they don't qualify to be picked).

Clearly, there will be a lot of nervous teams this afternoon.

I'll add my predictions to the mix:

New England (4)
Brandeis
Wheaton (Mass.)
Coast Guard
Amherst

East (2)
Cortland State
Rochester

Mid-Atlantic (2)
F&M
Dickinson

South Atlantic (3)
Emory
Salisbury
Rutgers-Newark

Great Lakes (2)
Ohio Wesleyan
John Carroll

Central (2)
North Park
Kalamazoo

North (2)
Loras
UW-W

West (1)
Texas-Dallas

Attended the Calvin - Kzoo game this afternoon.  Hard not to feel for the kids in orange, as they left it all on the field.  Not as talented a group as the Calvin boys, but took the Knights to OT and then nine PKs before finally falling.  Kzoo's defense, and particularly their keeper, are as good as any I have seen this season.  If they were to sneak into the tournament (admittedly a longshot), they could give a lot of teams fits.  Meanwhile, Calvin is a quality side and deserving of a top seed.  As has been noted, the field conditions prevented both sides from playing an attractive brand of soccer, and the Knights gutted out the victory.  How cruel this game can be: The Kzoo keeper got his fingers on three of the PKs in sudden death, with a stop representing victory, but each time the ball deflected into the goal.  Finally, the Calvin keeper made a stop and his teammate followed with a make and that was the game.  However, both sides should be proud of their effort.

Quote from: pelinho5 on November 07, 2014, 06:13:15 PM

Quote from: Letthekidsplay59 on November 07, 2014, 06:09:32 PM
Pelinho5,
Your stats don't make a very compelling argument. You admitted yourself that the win against Chicago was lucky, and the other games you reference merely serve to demonstrate that Kalamazoo can beat Hope, a team this forum seems to think lacks an ncaa tournament resume. Moreover, an SOS of .528 does little to move the needle, my friend.

Checkmate

Letthekidsplay59,

I haven't considered it from that perspective, I guess that makes a little bit of sense. Still think the Dodgers deserve a shot, who knows what they could achieve....

For what it's worth, I actually watched most of the Kzoo - Chicago match online and Kzoo was the better team (IMHO).  At least until they had a player sent off midway through the second half while holding a 1-0 lead.  Chicago then threw everything but the kitchen sink at the Hornets, but their back line and, particularly, their keeper held strong for the victory.  In fact, their keeper made a couple saves I've never seen made at that level before.

Still, as I laid out in an earlier post, I expect Elmhurst to get the nod over Kzoo, assuming the Central favorites win the AQs this weekend.  If one or more of the favorites lose, then all bets are off.

Quote from: Letthekidsplay59 on November 07, 2014, 05:51:17 PM
Can't see Kalamazoo getting an at large bid with their SOS an lack of a signature away win. They've been too inconsistent, for me. Elmhurst should probably sneak in behind Calvin, Wheaton and Chicago. Hope has a decent chance as well and have shown they can beat tournament opposition. I think Wheaton has a chance to go very far in the tournament this year. This has been their strongest team in years IMO.

I tend to agree with what you are saying, other than with respect to Hope.  Coming in third in their conference, losing in the semis, losing three times to Kzoo and finishing the season on a 1-4-1 streak -- they are done like dinner.  Also, I see Calvin (final four) going a bit further than Wheaton (final eight), assuming they don't run into each other earlier.

Quote from: Durantula on November 07, 2014, 02:33:21 PM
Soccergeek, Last year the central region did not receive any at-large bids and the North received 3 at large bids. Because Carthage beat a couple North teams this year I could see the Central maybe getting two this year and the North only getting one especially if Gustavus wins the MIAC. However, I think whitewater may have beaten NPU which lowers that possibility? I cannot think of any other cross region games off the top of my head.

Here are a few more: Chicago crushed Knox 6-2, UW-Whitewater defeated MSOE, Chicago, North Park and lost to Carthage, and UW-Oshkosh lost to MSOE and North Park.

In the Central, assuming each of the favorites (Calvin, Wheaton, Chicago and Dominican) wins their conference's AQ and the region receives one at-large bid, the battle likely breaks down as follows:

North Park - .666 winning % in division, 4-4 vs ranked opponents, .597 SOS, 5-5 in last 10, but failed to reach conference final.
Elmhurst - .675 winning % in division, 2-5 vs ranked opponents, .560 SOS, 6-3-1 in last 10 (assuming loss to Wheaton in final).
Kalamazoo - .619 winning % in division, 4-4-1 vs ranked opponents, 528 SOS, 7-3 in last 10 (assuming loss to Calvin in final).
MSOE - .761 winning % in division, 1-4 vs ranked opponents, .515 SOS, 8-2 in last 10 (assuming loss to Dominican in final).

I think MSOE gets eliminated due to low SOS and low record against ranked opponents.  I think North Park gets eliminated next due to failing to get out of the conference semis and their record over the last ten games (including 2-4 in last six).  This leaves Elmhurst and Kzoo.  The Bluejays have the better winning % and SOS, but the Hornets have the better results versus ranked opponents.  More telling, the two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Kalamazoo back in mid September (a game I happened to see in person).  The Hornets' coach played his second team most of the game to reward them for their hard work during the preseason, yet Kzoo was still the better team on that day (including 20-9 shots advantage, 11-4 SOG).

Based upon the eye test, as well as their recent results, Kzoo should get the at-large bid.  However, they have not been ranked in any of the three regional rankings (a clear oversight by the committee, given that Hope has appeared in all three), and it is unlikely that the committee will recognize this.  Elmhurst, meanwhile, appeared in the first two rankings, but not the most recent rankings.

Given this analysis:

Who deserves the at-large bid: Kalamazoo
Who will receive the at-large bid: Elmhurst

Quote from: gustiefan04 on November 06, 2014, 03:42:13 PM
Interesting article by Bennettrank.com

http://www.bennettrank.com/collegesoccer/open-invitation-ncaa-soccer-tournament-selection-committees/

Thought I would share as NCAA Selections are only a few days away.

Interesting...Just out of curiosity, I used their prediction tool to compare Hope vs Kalamazoo (the matchup I saw last night).  Of course, it predicted a Hope victory, giving absolutely no weight to the fact that Kzoo has now beaten Hope three times this season.  Personally, I believe Massey does a better job than Bennett, but both appear to employ flawed methodology.

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 05, 2014, 09:10:00 PM
No, KnightFalcon, nothing wrong, but does make planning difficult.

And I wonder if KZoo will sneak past Hope in the secret regional rankings after dispatching Hope for the 3rd time in a row (which is not an easy task).  Congrats to KZoo who may have knocked another at-large team off the bubble.

I was at the game between Kalamazoo and Hope.  Unlike their first two meetings, which Kzoo dominated, this one was fairly even from start to finish, with the Hornets' goalkeeper proving to be the difference.  The kid should probably get some All America consideration after the season he's had.  I still can't fathom how the committee placed Hope fourth in the Central this week and left the Hornets completely off the map given their two head-to-head victories.  After finishing third in the conference and failing to reach the title game, I would say Hope's bubble has now burst.

Another head-scratcher: Hope is ranked in the Central, and Kalamazoo is unranked.  If one looks purely at the listed criteria (winning %, SOS and results versus ranked opponents), Hope is slightly ahead of Kalamazoo in the first two and tied in the the last one.  However, Kalamazoo defeated Hope twice in head-to-head play, including this past Saturday.  One would think head-to-head play would be the best indication of how two teams stack up, but apparently it is not even considered by the committee.  The rankings appear to be based solely upon an algorithm involving the listed criteria and nothing else.

Quote from: Midwest Soccer on November 04, 2014, 10:07:11 AM
Vegter from Calvin is my front runner. Tough decision but I'd rate him higher than Payne. And in my opinion, Payne wasn't the most worthy recipient his sophomore year. Had a great season but I thought there were others more deserving and for what it's worth, Jack Thompson is still for me, the most valuable player on that team with Brian Ramirez being a close 2nd.

I have to agree with you.  Having seen Calvin play multiple games this season, it's hard to imagine a player meaning more to his team than Vegter.  He is simply a beast on the field.

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 02, 2014, 02:41:43 PM
A draw at Wash U will give Chicago the AQ.  Even with a loss they can't finish lower than 2nd place in the UAA.

Watching UR at CMU now.  I would guess at least 80% of UAA games are 0-0 at the half.

This is a moot point since Wabash hasn't even been ranked yet, but with Case losing and if CMU doesn't win today, I would put Wabash at #4 in Great Lakes.  I can't think of any other team that should be ahead of them.  CMU has had several bad results, and Wabash has two weak ties and only 1 semi-bad loss (to Denison).

Personally, I think the UAA is a bit overrated this season.  Using Chicago again as an example, they are currently undefeated in the league (4-0-2), but only 6-5 outside the UAA, including a 2-1 loss at home to Olivet, one of the weaker MIAA teams this year.