Quote from: Kuiper on September 15, 2025, 09:06:40 PM

Quote from: paclassic89 on September 15, 2025, 08:05:01 PMThe MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

Is that true after last year though?  Hamilton and Bowdoin got in with bad records because soccer is the only sport to have SOS dialed up to .85.

Quote from: CU_GKnight on September 14, 2025, 07:17:42 AMWhile I'm happy with how the Clarkson season has gone so far, especially getting a LL W at RIT I'm still thinking this is likely to be a 1 bid conference despite the better out of conference record.

Looking at Massey (not the best source but maybe the best available at this point) the LL out of conference record is 30-10-8 (W-L-T) (not sure why the difference from stlawus but close enough for an engineer to work with) but breaking it down by ranking versus:
Top 50: 0-3-0
51-100: 3-3-3
101-150: 3-1-1
151-200: 6-1-1
201-250: 7-1-1
251-300: 2-1-1
301-350: 5-0-0
351-400: 4-0-0

So it may be a better record but not sure if it is due to substantially better performance or scheduling weaker teams.

There are some big opportunities this week with:
Vassar @ Montclair St (#41)
Ithaca @ Cortland (#11)/vs Moravian (#101)
Clarkson @ Plattsburg(#56)/ @ Rochester (#102)
Union @ Williams (#4)
Skidmore @ Ramapo (#85)
RPI @ Oneonta (#64)

After that it is mostly LL matches with only 3 more matches against out of conference teams in the top 100.

I had 30-12-8 but Clarkson and RIT was a league game so I removed it.  Maybe I did miss a couple games but I did quick napkin math and that's just too much arithmetic for my simple brain.

It's not doing heavy lifting NPI wise, but as I said, a lot of these teams were losing these games in previous years.  I also think this is a very odd year across the board with lots of teams being very down.  Messiah 0-5, F&M 1-4, Ohio Wesleyan 1-2-2, Mary Washington 3-3, and not to mention SLU.

SLU definitely missed an opportunity to steal a win today.  Came back down 28-10 to make it 28-23, got a turnover in SJF's red zone, but inexplicable play calling on the goal line resulted in a turnover on downs.  Team is much better than last year, Lederman is going to have a great season, just a lot of inexperience on the OL right now.

It's funny how SLU is actually the biggest drag on the Liberty League right now.  The league so far has had its best non-conference performance in quite some time.  29-11-6 as it stands.   The competition hasn't been too stellar aside from Vassar but these are all wins the league hasn't been getting in previous years.

SLU's non-con schedule is out.

11/8 vs Geneseo
11/11 @ Oswego
11/18 vs Plattsburgh
11/21 @ Nazareth
11/22 vs SJF (@ Naz)
12/2 @ SUNY Poly
12/30 @ WPI

Still very perturbed at playing a league game against Clarkson in the middle of November.

Quote from: complexcoach on September 08, 2025, 10:36:03 PM

Quote from: stlawus on September 08, 2025, 10:02:34 PM"is boring, and if I had to guess, is more reflective of the contempt that builds against successful programs."

Notice how no other program has had this cloud surrounding them over the years? Not Messiah, not Tufts, not St. Olaf, not Conn.  Programs with many more titles and silverware have never had this sort of reaction.  If being a successful program breeds contempt then we would have seen this with Messiah and Tufts.  Don't you find it just a bit curious that we haven't?


"I urge you to try and visit Latin America or Europe in your lifetime to watch a game in person. You will see passion, aggression, and heightened emotions (much of what the U.S. is missing) -- and this is what soccer is all about"

This is not Latin America or Europe.  This is division 3 college soccer.  In Latin America it's not uncommon to need a police escort to enter an opposing team's stadium to watch a game. Forgive me for not wanting that kind of passion in division 3 college soccer. College soccer is unique to the US.  We are not developing professional players in this medium.  This is very much a student athlete driven enterprise.

Ignoring the fact that you're a professional Amherst hater (Accusing Amherst of pulling a hotel fire alarm 45 mins away from campus in 2022 was insanity, but I understand your frustration as we beat SLU every time), i'll humor you.

a) Conn was literally accused of unsportsmanlike behavior in the NCAA's literally 2 seasons ago (celebrating in front of opposing fans after a pen win)

b) I can't speak to Tufts/Messiah as their success was before my time

c) Amazing job ignoring the other continent I mentioned and reducing Latin America to a lawless place of police escorts. You also don't need to be a professional player to show passion, and being passionate about the sport you love as a student-athlete doesn't detract from your experience; it enhances it.

There is literally no comment from me in my post history that said anything about a fire alarm.  You have me confused with someone else.  Perhaps you should get your own ducks in a row before trying to speak with authority.

"is boring, and if I had to guess, is more reflective of the contempt that builds against successful programs."

Notice how no other program has had this cloud surrounding them over the years? Not Messiah, not Tufts, not St. Olaf, not Conn.  Programs with many more titles and silverware have never had this sort of reaction.  If being a successful program breeds contempt then we would have seen this with Messiah and Tufts.  Don't you find it just a bit curious that we haven't?


"I urge you to try and visit Latin America or Europe in your lifetime to watch a game in person. You will see passion, aggression, and heightened emotions (much of what the U.S. is missing) -- and this is what soccer is all about"

This is not Latin America or Europe.  This is division 3 college soccer.  In Latin America it's not uncommon to need a police escort to enter an opposing team's stadium to watch a game. Forgive me for not wanting that kind of passion in division 3 college soccer. College soccer is unique to the US.  We are not developing professional players in this medium.  This is very much a student athlete driven enterprise.

He doesn't need me to defend him but calling SC an incel is definitely a new chapter in Amtics. SC has done more for d3 soccer exposure in the years post-covid than anyone, and has been a pretty invaluable media resource. Resorting to this kind of behavior on a forum that's 99% of the time cordial, well informed and a fun way to feel connected to like minded d3 sports enthusiasts is just more confirmation of all the things I've observed over the past 10-12 years.   You wish you could be considered in the same realm of a program like Messiah.  I've watched that team lose on penalties at home (with championship aspirations) and immediately clap for and congratulate the team that beat them.  You could learn a lot from a team like them.   

Notice that out of the hundreds of d3 programs and dozens of national championship teams, few to none other teams have ever been called out for this stuff at this volume?   I suppose none of this really matters that much, it's not like we're the UN security council, it is after all a game.  But everyone knows d3soccer is just a bit more than a ball getting kicked around, it's a medium to show the uniqueness and prowess of schools, institutions and players around the country in several more areas besides athletic ability.

I'm not declaring anyone besides Vassar as league favorites right now.  Been many a season a team's non-conference performance had 0 bearing on the regular season.  Right now they're the team that passes the eye test.

I didn't anticipate Vassar losing to Cortland, even on the road.  Vassar's occasional problem of conceding too easily bit them.  They usually just outscore the opponent and I thought they'd win by 3 goals.  Almost tied it at the end though.  Cortland is just finding ways to win.  I still think their actual quality is well below what it has been but that doesn't matter if they get results.

I'm pulling my donation to SLU soccer when the annual athletic department fundraiser kicks off in a couple weeks. It's not like I donate much, but we've reached a line of demarcation. This isn't on the players, even despite the scorelines. The coach is just unserious right now, so I'll shift my money to SLU basketball or lax.   There were several very worrying signs the past 3 years in interviews the coach did, and it looks like they've all finally manifested.

Happy with SLU's performance tonight.  Lederman looked really poised under center. Couple sacks hurt his net gain on rushing yards but he had a couple really big runs in combination with a few extremely clutch deep ball completions on 3rd down.  Defense started out with an 11 minute drive but held them to a field goal and completely dominated the LOS the rest of the game.  Notched a safety and shut everything down in the defensive backfield.  First opening night win since 2016 so definitely a better start than what we've become accustomed to in recent years.

Plattsburgh has an opening I think.  Cortland will probably get the wins like they usually do but so far their quality is not yet what it was the past few years with all their departures, at least from what I saw yesterday.  Cortland could ramp up down the stretch but Platts had some nice looking underclassmen last year. 

League's about where I thought it'd be for this season.  It's Vassar and everyone else.  Lots of very mid soccer today.  Their game isn't over yet but Vassar so far has been the only convincing team today as it pertains to their quality of competition.  RPI blows a lead late, Union melts down late, RIT and Clarkson both fail to score with RIT losing. SLU gets the honors of the day's biggest lemon.  Can't remember a SLU team ever looking that bad.  Very sad state of affairs, but it's been a few years in the making. Cortland just destroyed Rochester, Sunday could be quite ugly if they don't rally.

Kind of buried in a little corner of the internet a couple weeks ago but looks like the SUNYAC will go to divisional play after this season.

"They are still worried about time wasting in the last few minutes of a game."

stlawus reaction: re-institute overtime