Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 27, 2015, 09:28:10 AM
Tounament scenarios as I understand them. 

For top seed.

Berg clinches top seed wit a win against ONU on Saturday.

If ONU sweeps (assuming JCU also sweeps), that would force a thee way tie.  JCU would still be out.  According to page 5 of the handbook http://www.oac.org/information/Handbook/Sports_Guideline/BASEBALL_-updated_-10-22-14-.pdf.

ONU would be 3-1 in those four games,
Berg would be 2-2 in those four games,
and JCU would be 1-3 in those four games. 

So an ONU sweep means ONU is the top seed, Berg, 2, and JCU the third. 

The other spots....

We will assume for a moment that JCU will sweep Muskingum (in New Concord), Marietta will sweep Wilmington (in Marietta), and BW will sweep Capital (in bexley).

How does the ONU vs Berg Series impact the playoff picture?

ONU sweeps Berg (see above)

1.  ONU 13-5
2.  Berg 13-5
3.  JCU 13-5
4.  MAR 12-6
4.  BW.  12-6

In this situation, Marietta wins the two team tiebreaker with BW by virtue of Marietta's split against Berg, and Berg's sweeping BW.  Both Marietta and BW split with Northern.

ONU and Berg Split.

1.  Berg 14-4
2.  JCU 13-5
3.  MAR 12-6
3.  ONU 12-6
3.  BW 12-6

Marietta, ONU and BW all split with each other, so they are all 2-2 in the scenario mentioned in item 3 on page 5 of the handbook. 

So the next tiebreaker is run differential in OAC games (with a max of 7 runs considered).  Through the games played as of Sunday, the average run differential for the three tied teams is as follows:

1.  Marietta 2.69
2.  ONU 1.5
3.  BW 1.0

So the tournament would likely be 1. Berg vs 4. ONU, 2. JCU vs. 3. Mar.

By the way, the score differential margin is RAZOR thin, especially between ONU and BW.  The results from this weekend will have a significant impact on this metric between BW and ONU.

Berg sweeps ONU

1.  Berg  15-3
2.  JCU  13-5
3.  MAR 12-6
3.  BW 12-6

5.  ONU 11-7

As Mentioned before, according to item 2, Marietta wins the tie breaker with BW. 

Now if JCU gacks one against Muskingum and BW and Marietta both win their two this weekend....

IF ONU wins 1, it forces a four way tie for 2nd.  BW, MAR, JCU, and ONU all split with each other and would be 3-3 in the four team pool.  Run differentials look like this (so far).

MAR 2.69
JCU  1.59
ONU 1.5
BW 1.0

SO the seeding then becomes...

1. Berg vs. 4 ONU, 2. MAR vs. 3. JCU  5.  BW

if ONU sweeps Berg, it goes like this...

1.  ONU vs. 4 JCU, 2. Berg vs. 3. MAR.

If Berg sweeps ONU, it goes like this:

1.  Berg, 2. MAR, 3.  JCU, 4. BW.

If EITHER BW or MAR split this weekend....

If BW splits, they HAVE to hope for a BERG sweep over ONU on Saturday....

BW would have the two team  tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of BW's sweep of Mount (ONU Split). 

If MAR splits, they have to hope either BW also splits or Berg sweeps ONU. 

MAR would have the two team tie breaker over ONU, by virtue of MAR's split with Berg.  Marietta has the two team tie breaker over BW. 


It is all as clear as mud right....

So here is what you are cheering for if you are fan of one of these five teams....

1.  Berg.  Win one and host.  It is that simple,  You are in the tournament no matter what.
2.  ONU.  Don't get swept.  Being swept is all kinds of bad and it sends you home.
3.  JCU.  Win two and keep your seed higher.  You can't claim the top spot, so you are playing for a seed.
4.  MAR.  Win two and you are in the tournament....To be sure, win big over a bad Wilmington squad.
5.  BW Win two, run it up if you can, and hope for some help from Heidelberg (at least one win, preferably two)

The run differential difference between BW and ONU is razor thin right now, the scores from the weekend's games can have an impact on the outcome.

Disclaimer:  This is computed based on how I interpret the handbook (linked above).  It is not official, and it might be incorrect.  There are probably some unlikely scenarios not considered (like Wilmington sweeping Marietta for example).  IN any event, the playoff chase is a hot mess.

As stated in the OAC manual, the second tie breaker is how the tied teams fared against the top team and works its way down until the tie is broken. In the case of an ONU split with Heidelberg, ONU would win the tie breaker with BW because ONU would be 1-1 against Berg and BW would be 0-2. Run differential is the 5th tie breaker and would not need to be considered in this situation. I appreciate all the work EttaFan did to calculate the run differentials but it won't come into play. 

If ONU splits with Heidelberg, BW would be out and ONU would be the 4 seed.

Last season ONU was tied with BW for the 4th spot in the OAC tournament. ONU went 0-2 against Marietta and BW split which gave BW the tiebreaker. ONU wasn't given an at large bid on the sole reason that they didn't make the conference tournament. ONU was in the regional rankings the week of the conference tournament and dropped out of the regional rankings without playing a game the next week. If BW ends up out of the OAC tournament this year the same thing will be the case.

I do not believe this should be the case, but a precedent was set last year. It will be interesting to see what happens.