Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on May 28, 2025, 11:07:39 AMIf you don't mind me asking, which three models do you use, and how do you weight them?

About 90% is my own "adjusted efficiency" model that I've been modifying for years. It's pretty similar to what KenPom does for DI basketball, but with some additional/different bells & whistles.

Then about 5% each is a traditional Elo model and a margin-of-victory-adjusted Elo model.

If you want to waste an afternoon, I wrote about it in excruciating detail here: Hansen Ratings Model Explanation.

I was bored today, so I decided to do some digging. This is using my team ratings (which is actually a weighted average of 3 different models).

Percentage of Weeks since 1997 Ranked in the Top __

School	Top 1	Top 2	Top 3	Top 4	Top 5
Wartburg	52%	76%	92%	99%	100%
Central	32%	75%	91%	99%	100%
Coe	7%	24%	54%	71%	89%
Dubuque	6%	13%	32%	54%	60%
Simpson	4%	11%	22%	38%	62%
Buena Vista	0%	1%	7%	21%	31%
Luther	0%	0%	1%	10%	23%
Loras	0%	0%	0%	8%	33%
Nebraska Wesleyan	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%

Some takeaways - Wartburg & Central own the top 2 spots in the conference, with a considerable gap between them and Coe, and then another sizeable gap between Coe & UD/Simpson.

UD in the early aughts was noticeably worse than any of the current teams have been recently (yes, even Luther). They got better, but it took consistent coaching, institutional support, and a nice influx of funds to the athletic department.

If the benchmark for success is just being better than average, every team (except NWU, who has struggled mightily since making the switch from NAIA) has shown the ability to consistently rank in the top half of the conference.

I agree with a lot of your perspective there, wrt the administrative support, recruiting, and local support, but that's a huge reason why I think Hafner holds a fair deal of blame for Luther's struggles lately. I remember them posting their recruiting class on Twitter his last season there, and they had zero recruits from Iowa. ZERO. I remember because I DM'd the Luther football account and asked when they were going to post their recruits from Iowa, and they replied saying, "At this time, we don't have any recruits in this class from Iowa."

Running a niche system and recruiting zero kids from your home state is not going to leave a place better than you found it.

I would also point out that Hafner's resume wasn't actually all that great; it just looks better in hindsight because they've struggled so much since he left.
Luther's average rating from 1997-2012: +2.9
Luther's average rating w/ Hafner 2013-2018: -0.2
Luther's average rating since 2019-2024: -22.1

That

Quote from: IC798891 on May 22, 2025, 12:10:38 PMThough it was an independent era schedule, the 2001 Buffalo State schedule ended up being the greatest I have ever seen

11-2 Rowan, NCAA Semifinalist
11-2 Ithaca, NCAA Quarterfinalist
11-1 Washington & Jefferson, NCAA 2nd round
9-2 Montclair, NCAA First round
9-2 Brockport, NCAA First round
8-2 Albion
5-5 Cortland
Non-D3 Robert Morris
Non-D3 Mansfield

That Buffalo State schedule is a monster. I'm surprised I haven't noticed it before. I have that as a 0.898 SOS, which would be the top regular season SOS in the country most years, and even better than the SOS for teams who make deep playoff runs. UWEC and UMHB (including playoffs, excluding the non-countable opponent, because they don't count) would have been the only two in 2024 with a higher SOS.

Quote from: DuffMan on May 22, 2025, 11:05:29 AM@HansenRatings, I thought of you this past weekend as I was driving accross Iowa to a baseball tournament.  I gave a single-finger salute as we passed through Waverly.    We wrapped up the weekend with a 7:00 pm game on Sunday and then arrived home at 2:30 am. 

If you had been driving past on Friday, I would have been there to graciously accept your salute. I was busy golfing (terribly).

Speaking of setting expectations for Augsburg...



Augsburg was at near an all-time low when Lamker was hired, and he did a great job getting them back to respectability, but the >0.500 record was somewhat of a mirage thanks to their strength of schedule during his tenure:



In the 23 seasons preceding Lamker's tenure, there were only two seasons with a weaker SOS than the toughest schedule they faced the last 5 seasons. If I look at my "SOS+" metric, which values higher quality opponents, each of the last 5 seasons have been among the 6 easiest schedules Augsburg has played since 1997. Some of that is thanks to the conference's scheduling and current makeup, but among the schedules he could control, the non-conference schedule, the weakest non-conference slates Augsburg has ever played were in his 3rd & 4th seasons.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on May 20, 2025, 04:21:30 PM

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 20, 2025, 03:39:47 PMRan some numbers on the Cru's non-conference schedule.

NC SOS: 0.976
I would have to dig deeper to crunch the numbers, but this very likely could be best non-conference schedule since 1997 for a team w/ 4 non-conference games. For reference, the rightfully ballyhooed Johns Hopkins non-conference schedule in 2025 is sitting at 0.955, with one fewer game.

Spreads & Win%
vs. Bethel TN (-12.4, 78.4%)
vs. UW-Whitewater (+0.2, 49.5%)
@ Mars Hill (-0.6, 51.3%)
vs. Texas Wesleyan (-15.4, 83.5%)

What about the UW-Oshkosh schedule?

NC SOS of 0.966 (Linfield, NCC, Roosevelt). Roosevelt would be about a TD underdog vs. TX Wesleyan and a double digit 'dog vs. Bethel TN, using preseason numbers from Massey & end-of-2024 numbers from Bill Connelly's SP+.

Ran some numbers on the Cru's non-conference schedule.

NC SOS: 0.976
I would have to dig deeper to crunch the numbers, but this very likely could be best non-conference schedule since 1997 for a team w/ 4 non-conference games. For reference, the rightfully ballyhooed Johns Hopkins non-conference schedule in 2025 is sitting at 0.955, with one fewer game.

Spreads & Win%
vs. Bethel TN (-12.4, 78.4%)
vs. UW-Whitewater (+0.2, 49.5%)
@ Mars Hill (-0.6, 51.3%)
vs. Texas Wesleyan (-15.4, 83.5%)

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on May 20, 2025, 11:49:10 AMThanks for the charts Logan! I do think that the trend is something to note, as the top of the conference is separating itself from the bottom of the league. I would assume that I am one of the younger people on this board, as I have only followed the conference for about 8 years now. But in those 8 years, it has felt like the haves (Central/Wartburg/Coe/ud) and the have-nots (the rest) have not done much flip-flopping. Now I think this is pretty normal for most football conferences, as we typically don't see teams going from worst to first in this particular sport. But it does beg the question, how much longer will this go on for, and what does one of the teams in the have-nots group need to do to break through? I would love someone to hear the opinions of those who are a bit more seasoned on this board on the matter, as they have probably seen and know more about the history of the league.

I would say that there are definitely some leagues where there are pretty stark differences in institutional priorities that drives a lot of the stratification (the MIAC and former makeup of the ASC immediately come to mind), but that's not really the case in the ARC. Wartburg as an institution definitely puts a premium on athletic success, but if you look at federally-reported revenue/spending numbers, the whole conference is basically on the same playing field. Some institutions have other issues (general financial health of the college, dwindling nearby population), but there's nothing on the scale of St. Scholastica vs. St. John's to overcome.

This is anecdoctal, but for me coming out of high school (class of '08), I had barely functional dial-up internet at home, and I was only going to hear about a school from in-person visits or mailers, and then everything I knew about them was essentially learned from my on campus visits. Now a kid from Arizona can meet a coach from Iowa at a recruiting fair, and then in the next fifteen minutes they'll know who the best teams are in their conference and send a DM to their coaches on Twitter. That can make it more difficult to climb the ladder, but not insurmountable.

I also look at success in other sports. There's abosultely no reason for a school like Luther to be struggling as much as they have been in football. If you exclude football from the All-Sports Trophy last year, Luther finishes first in the conference, and they're regularly finishing in the Top 3 in the All Sports Trophy even including football, and have the third-most outright All Sports Trophy wins all time, behind Wartburg and Central.

The stasis right now can feel entrenched, and I do think the availability of information for recruits can make that entrenchment more "real," but I think pretty much every school in the ARC is only 1 great coaching hire away from moving into the upper half of the conference.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on May 15, 2025, 11:00:12 AM

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 08, 2025, 11:55:03 AMAnyways, here's the projections table updated with everyone's schedule.

School		SOS		Proj. W-L	Conf. W-L
Wartburg		0.545		8.7-1.3	7.3-0.7
Central		0.546		8.0-2.0	6.6-1.4
Coe		0.488		7.5-2.5	6.4-1.6
Dubuque		0.586		5.6-4.4	5.4-2.6
Loras		0.564		3.2-6.8	2.8-5.2
Simpson		0.505		3.8-6.2	2.6-5.4
Nebraska Wesleyan		0.503		2.7-6.3	2.3-5.7
Buena Vista		0.510		3.0-7.0	2.3-5.7
Luther		0.480		0.9-9.1	0.3-7.7

I do find it very intriguing that the bottom 5 teams in the conference are projected to have less than 3 wins each. The basement of the ARC could really use some nonconference wins to help boost up the overall SOS of the conference and also the national opinion of all the teams in it. With all 5 of these teams being projected less than 3 wins (I highly doubt Simpson will go under this based on what they were able to improve on last season) it tells me that instead of the floor being raised, the teams in the bottom 5 are more so content in simply trying not to finish last then really trying to break into the upper tier of the conference.

This got me thinking. I was curious if there had been less "churn" in the conference standings recently than the norm. I decided to check this by comparing teams' finish in the conference standings to their finish the previous season (first image) and their finish the previous two seasons (second image). Last season was the season with the least amount of movement in the standings over the last 20 years (Simpson went up 1 spot in the standings, and Loras went down 1 spot, for an absolute change of 2). It's subtle but that's a trend that appears to be stabilizing in the post-COVID ARC.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on May 15, 2025, 10:53:31 AM

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 08, 2025, 11:55:03 AMWith Dubuque and BVU going on the road to Benedictine, that means BenU has 6 home games. Must be nice. BenU also favored against each of the two (-3.5 vs. Loras & -9.8 vs. BVU).

I can't sit idly by while you miscontrude my favorite football team with the neerdowells up the street from us Logan 

I'm not sure what came over me. Unforgiveable.

With Dubuque and BVU going on the road to Benedictine, that means BenU has 6 home games. Must be nice. BenU also favored against each of the two (-3.5 vs. Loras & -9.8 vs. BVU).

Anyways, here's the projections table updated with everyone's schedule.

School		SOS		Proj. W-L	Conf. W-L
Wartburg		0.545		8.7-1.3	7.3-0.7
Central		0.546		8.0-2.0	6.6-1.4
Coe		0.488		7.5-2.5	6.4-1.6
Dubuque		0.586		5.6-4.4	5.4-2.6
Loras		0.564		3.2-6.8	2.8-5.2
Simpson		0.505		3.8-6.2	2.6-5.4
Nebraska Wesleyan		0.503		2.7-6.3	2.3-5.7
Buena Vista		0.510		3.0-7.0	2.3-5.7
Luther		0.480		0.9-9.1	0.3-7.7

Luther playing Millikin and Martin Luther in non-conference, and they're more than a TD underdog in each game (oof-da). NWU playing two NAIA schools, as discussed previously, so that won't matter for any SOS calculations in NPI(which is good, because they were a bigger underdog in those matchups than I expected before I ran the numbers). For the other 8 schools, the cumulative non-conference record is expected to be 7.1-8.9. Not great. You'd like to see that above 0.500 to help get a second (or third) team into the playoffs. But still, with the expanded playoffs 1-loss should be enough, barring a conference-wide implosion in the non-conference slate.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on April 23, 2025, 09:54:15 AM

Quote from: RedAndBlack on April 22, 2025, 04:07:20 PMThe ultimate prize will still be a NESCAC championship. Without an OOC game, the chances the NESCAC sends multiple teams to the playoffs will be slim. Unless the AQ can go win some games in the playoffs in the first few years, the NESCAC will be sending its champion every year and maybe the runner up every so often... This talk of the NESCAC Championship or rivalry games like Amherst/Williams not mattering anymore is crazy.

It's actually not slim. The Presidents' Athletic Conference had no OOC games the past two years and last year got two at-large teams in the playoffs.

It's all math -- a conference winner's previous playoff experience has no bearing whatsoever on how the playoff teams are selected.

And since it's all math, there's basically no guesswork involved: if a NESCAC team finishes the season with 1 loss, they're practically guaranteed a spot in the field, and a second loss (barring earning the AQ w/ 2 losses) effectively eliminates a team from the playoffs.

Every 1 loss team would have been comfortably above the bubble in each of the last 6 seasons, and every 2 loss team about a dozen spots below the bubble. With the closed regular season schedule, an undefeated season isn't going to be enough for a 1 seed, but a 2 seed (top 8 overall, which guarantees HFA for 2 rounds) is possible, and a 3 seed is most likely.

Adding Simpson's schedule to my projections:

School		SOS		Proj. W-L
Wartburg		0.545		8.7-1.3
Central		0.546		8.0-2.0
Coe		0.488		7.5-2.5
Dubuque		0.586		5.6-4.4
Simpson		0.505		3.8-6.2

Augustana will be a good early measuring stick for a team that I think most people expect to keep improving, even with J Jensen III graduating. My current projections have them as a 11.5 point underdog. A close game or a win should bode well. Crown should be an easy win, and then they're projected to go 2.6-5.4 in conference. A 0.500 season is definitely within the reasonable range of outcomes.

Not every ARC school has announced their 2025 schedule, yet, but the top 4 teams of the last few years all have, so I figured I would plug those schedules into the ol' Hansen Ratings machine to see how they stack up. First, here are my preseason conference ratings as of right now, which haven't been adjusted for returning starters, yet.

Rk	School		Rating		AdjO		AdjD
15	Wartburg		33.6		37.7		5.2
27	Central		27.6		38.6		11.6
29	Coe		27.0		36.4		10.1
56	Dubuque		15.6		36.0		21.2
137	Loras		-6.9		29.1		37.5
138	Simpson		-7.1		24.5		33.2
165	Nebraska Wesleyan		-12.5		18.1		32.0
168	Buena Vista		-13.3		20.5		35.2
214	Luther		-31.3		9.7		42.8

And then looking at the schedules and projections for the top 4:

School		SOS		Proj. W-L
Wartburg		0.545		8.7-1.3
Central		0.546		8.0-2.0
Coe		0.488		7.5-2.5
Dubuque		0.586		5.6-4.4