FWIW, over the last decade, the #10 team averages 365 poll points, if you exclude 2021 (for obvious reasons), that average is 369. Cortland had 335 poll points. So the voters in aggregate have less faith in Cortland as a Top 10 team than the typical #10 team.

Quote from: DagarmanSpartan on July 25, 2025, 10:32:57 AMCan Hansen Sports do a similar preview for the Presidents' Athletic Conference?

I'll eventually be doing the same sort of preview for every conference. I have some more work to do in regards to playoff & bowl projections before the other conferences will be ready.

Quote from: SpringSt7 on July 25, 2025, 02:05:56 PMNice work - Jordan Atkinson transferred from Trinity to Georgetown, it was a spring transfer but was wondering if it is 100% accurate otherwise in regards to outgoing players

Quote from: nescac1 on July 25, 2025, 02:21:33 PMI don't think Koy Price could possibly be coming back for Bowdoin, he played four full seasons

Thanks for the input, I'll make sure to get those updated before the season starts.

I tried to go through team rosters to double-check who was coming back, and even went to see if I could pick up anything from the kids' social media pages to check for transfer announcements, but most team rosters weren't updated, and none of the kids' social media pages (of the ones I could find) were very useful in that regard.

I put together a "Preseason Magazine" style preview for the NESCAC this season. It's easily the most balanced conference in the country, with 7/10 teams projected 0.500 or better, no team projected with fewer than 2 wins and no team projected with fewer than 2 losses.

(If you right-click and open in new tab, the image resolution will be much easier to read)

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on July 23, 2025, 08:58:54 PMA bit late, but I just wanted to thank Logan for all of the stats and info he provides here, on twitter, and on his website. I loved using the spreads for the pickems last year as I felt like it added a bit more nuance to the season. I don't quite understand why certain members of the D3 media feel so personally attacked by an algorithm, one that Logan has clearly worked very hard on I might add, that is a passion project from a guy who obviously loves the D3 game. Hopefully, bridges can be mended one day, but until then, I'm firmly in your corner Logan!

Quote from: hazzben on July 17, 2025, 03:55:34 PMI know NWC's president very casually floated the idea of going D3 (given his Simpson roots) but it didn't go anywhere. That was probably 15 years ago.

NWC, Morningside, Dordt, and Grandview migrating would lead to an insanely good conference in a number of sports. NWU and BVU would benefit with the NW Iowa group of schools. You'd have natural rivalries between NWC, Dordt, and Central with the Dutch Reformed angle. And if you went to some sort of divisional format you could alleviate travel strain.

But this is discussion board dreaming ... the ARC schools aren't going NAIA. And the recent success of all those GPAC schools + Grandview in NAIA makes it seem like a hard sell the other way too.

Now an ARC vs MIAC post season bowl, that seems like a much more doable option. I'd love to see that. But with the expanded field you're probably talking about 2 vs 3 or even 3 vs 3 a fair number of years. Not sure if that diminishes excitement for something getting setup.

Imagine how good that wrestling conference would be. Twenty nine national titles between Grandview & Wartburg.... and I'm sure the rest of DIII would probably try to put Augsburg and UWL in their qualifying tournament again in the next round of re-alignment.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 16, 2025, 01:28:40 PMBerry's home stadium opened in Year 3. Mary Hardin-Baylor, in football-crazy Texas, didn't have its own home stadium for more than a decade. Greensboro took 24 years to get an on-campus facility.

These instances are in the minority, to be sure, but they are not unprecedented.

Isn't it also the case that most schools have re-purposed an existing facility instead of building a brand new stadium?

Quote from: doolittledog on July 16, 2025, 09:33:45 AMAnnouncing they are going to Flo Sports?

Or something along those lines?

With Flo announcing 4 new conference partnerships yesterday (3 in DIII, 1 in DII), I feel like that possibility has diminished pretty significantly. I also feel like a rebrand would be a little odd, given how fresh the ARC brand is. Wasn't long ago it was still the IIAC. I asked a couple people who I thought might have some insight, and they were stumped about what the announcement could be.

A fun little tidbit for the Johnnies faithful on here. My model has SJU ranked #5 in the preseason, but I did a quick analysis of each team's home schedule, and the Johnnies only ranked 170th in that regard. Favored by an average of more that 7 TDs per game in their 6 home games.

You don't have to stick around for the concert!

I have a couple of Twins tickets for this Friday against the Pirates and I can't make it.

Seats behind homeplate/visitor dugout, three rows up, on the aisle.
Skenes likely starting for the Pirates.
Nelly concert after the game.

Let me know if you're interested

https://seatgeek.com/minnesota-twins-tickets/7-11-2025-minneapolis-minnesota-target-field/mlb/17019767?listing=rd9do8w#listing=rd9do8w

Luther being as bad as they are in football right now is a relatively new phenomenon. They went 5-5 each year I was in school. They're not like an Oberlin or Hiram who has never seen success, they've just had a couple successive unsuccessful coaching hires that have really dismantled their foundation.

Quote from: BLynn on July 01, 2025, 11:13:11 PMI have always thought that Iowa could produce a magnificent football conference by including the ARC (sans NWU) with Morningside, Northwestern, Grand View, St. Ambrose and possibly Clarke and/or Briar Cliff. Only problem, as mentioned, is who blinks first: ARC moves to NAIA (which most were at one time) or the others roll to NCAA D3. I guess it's just wishful thinking.

If you took the top 3 or 4 teams from the ARC and mushed them together with the top 4 NAIA teams in Iowa (Grandview, Morningside, Northwestern, and Dordt are all Top 10 in Massey's preseason ratings), you would have either the strongest DIII conference in the country or the strongest NAIA conference in the country.

The only way I see something like that happening is if ~half of the small colleges in Iowa shutter their doors, though. I think all of those schools are pretty happy with their current situations.

Updating my conference projections now that I have returning production data:

School		SOS		Proj. W-L	Conf. W-L
Wartburg		0.547		8.6-1.4	7.3-0.7
Coe		0.491		7.7-2.3	6.5-1.5
Central		0.544		7.8-2.2	6.5-1.5
Dubuque		0.596		5.2-4.8	5.1-2.9
Loras		0.558		3.4-6.6	2.9-5.1
Simpson		0.501		3.8-6.2	2.6-5.4
Nebraska Wesleyan		0.540		2.8-7.2	2.3-5.7
Buena Vista		0.513		2.9-7.1	2.2-5.8
Luther		0.480		1.5-8.5	0.6-7.4