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Messages - MRMIKESMITH

#1
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 12, 2025, 04:18:56 PMLooking at current brackets and projected brackets, here are teams that Salisbury and CNU could potentially play in the first 2 rounds.

Salisbury (#3/#4/#5/#6) - Cortland, Endicott, Eastern, Union, F&M, Muhlenberg, Springfield, John Carroll, Susquehanna, W&J, Grove City, and Curry
CNU (#1/#2) - R-MC, Muhlenberg, F&M, Eastern, W&J, Susquehanna, Grove City, Chapman (travel bracket), Willamette (travel bracket).

CNUs 3rd Quarterfinal game will probably require a flight from or to many of the potential 1 to 2 seeds, unless its a team aforementioned or potential game with Mount, Johns Hopkins. Many of the other #1/#2 seeds can not get to CNU by bus.

Salisbury will most likely face a Hopkins or Mount Union in the S16 if they were to win their 2nd round matchup.

As I predicted, Salisbury will face a Top 10 Johns Hopkins team. To succeed, Salisbury must be at its best in all three phases of the game.

Hopkins has had two weeks to prepare for the triple option, having just faced Springfield's iteration. While Salisbury's specific execution of the offense has evolved drastically over the years from the traditional Springfield approach, Hopkins' defense will still require high discipline against Salisbury Spread-Option.

While two weeks of preparation is often seen as a significant benefit against the option, option OCs must sometimes adjust on the fly when defenses change their approach from their defenses. Salisbury's offensive coordinators (OCs) now have film of how Hopkins defends the option, which will aid their preparation—every coin has two sides.

Defensively, this is a great opportunity for Salisbury's defense to prove critics and statisticians wrong. All season, Salisbury has struggled against the pass, particularly when opponents abandoned their run game. They will face a high-powered, dual-faceted, but patient offensive attack from Hopkins, widely considered one of the best-balanced attacks in DIII. Salisbury can learn from its prior game against Endicott, which successfully used a tempo-based scheme to achieve over 200 passing yards. Salisbury has talented players; it is up to the staff to put them in the best position to succeed. The players must execute the calls, recognize formations quickly and plays, and MAKE THE PLAYS. Salisbury will still need to stop the run first, as Hopkins will maintain its rushing attack to keep the defense honest and create opportunities for downfield passes.

Special teams and turnovers have been Salisbury's Achilles' heel in big games. The special teams unit must be disciplined, sound, and execute the little things correctly (make the chip shots). This will either maintain field position or put Salisbury in a strong position to succeed.

Salisbury also has to protect the ball (no fumbles or BAD interceptions). Self-inflicted, untimely penalties and turnovers have given opponents sparks to stay in games (e.g., Endicott) or win outright (e.g., CNU). If Salisbury plays a clean game, avoids 15-yard defensive penalties that help the opposing offenses move chains, and the offense avoids penalties that put them behind the chains, Salisbury will be very successful (I know cliche).

Remember folks, Salisbury has playoff experience, and opponents have to prepare to play against them, too.
#2
Quote from: Machiavelli on December 01, 2025, 10:33:13 AMNot sure if anyone caught the Endicott/Salisbury game, but it was a good one. Endicott looked very overmatched early, but tightened up the defense and their offense started moving the ball. They had a chance to tie the game in the 4th from like the inch line and called a boneheaded play from shotgun. Seriously, 3 inches. QB sneak will get that 97 times out of 100. Instead they handed it off 4 yards behind the LOS and that was that. Great effort overall. QB had some good reads but throws like it's a shotput and a few were a little too slow to the WRs.

In any case, with the thinking that Salisbury can likely compete with anyone, this was a really nice showing by Endicott.

I was at the game and kudos to Endicott. I think Endicott played well on offense and their HC/OC took advantage of Salisbury scheme, which  typically happens early in games. Endicott also added tempo in 3rd to get back in game as well. That appeared to surprise Salisbury. Salisbury did adjust, but poor special teams play gave momentum back to Endicott as Salisbury defense had settled down after quick 3rd quarter tds.  I think Salisbury offensively aside from one drive in 3rd was able to do what it wanted, especially when they were ahead of the chains. I mentioned in the NJAC channel that the game would come down to Salisbury defense vs Endicott offense and a key special teams play. Endicott actually won the special teams game, but as you mentioned that key 4th down stop was the difference. A bigger difference was Salisbury DB chasing down a fleet footed #1 from Endicott, stopping him at the 4, which eventually led to 4th down stop.  I too didn't think Endicott QB threw the ball with pop, but he managed the game well and the scheme allows for great success and didn't make any errant throw. I'd say he'd fall in the middle to top of pack of NJAC QBs. Salisbury in its current state will rely on if they can protect the ball and outscore opponents with its defense limiting big plays and stopping run.
#3
What a wonderful weekend to be a Seagull. First, congratulations to Endicott, a plucky bunch. At half, I thought they would fold, but they made Salisbury play all four quarters, their staff made great adjustments and their players were awesome. #1 was a great athlete and #6 played very well at CB. Regarding Salisbury, I don't think Saturday was the best performance as a whole and as a whole need to BE better next week. However, the offense shouldered the load for majority of the game and with the exception of untimely penalties put Salisbury behind the chains and very bad interception by QB into triple coverage, the offense did what was needed. Defensively, until the 4th mainly, we allowed Endicott to control the tempo, the defense was not ready for tempo early and that is on the coaches to prepare the players for the unexpected. I think there were key plays of unpreparedness, penalties, and players not having awareness of how the opposing team would attack scheme hurt. Special teams was an Achilles as the punt return unit early had a personal foul penalty that put the offense behind the chains and in poor field position , then when the defense was finally settling in after Endicott 3rd quarter onslaught, punt returner fumbled the punt that led to Endicott's 4th score. The play of the game was the saving tackle after Endicott RB #1 had rumbled towards the endzone, Salisbury DB did not give on the play, which eventually led to the key 4th down stop on the 1 yard line, which essentially allowed Salisbury to chew out the clock and make Endicott utilize all 3 timeouts. Salisbury defense then in huge change, got away from base defense and locked up WRs and Endicott appeared surprised and couldn't really move the ball on their final drive. 

I did watch the replay of the CNU/Susquehanna game, I'd be curious to hear CNU85 thoughts? I thought that Susquehanna like CNU did against Salisbury a few weeks ago, played very inspired and with a chip on their shoulder causing pressure in the backfield and creating turnovers that eventually led to score differential. I felt that Susquehanna protected the ball and always appeared to keep CNU at a distance.
#4
Listened to Coach McGonagle and he mentioned that Endicott may play St. Johns, Muhlenberg, and UMHB next year on "The rant Podcast". See link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKyhOUPSVp4, about the 25 minute mark.
#5
Congratulations to Rowan for winning their ECAC bowl over a very good Utica team.

2nd round action is among us here in NJAC land as we have two teams competing for an opportunity to make it to the S16. CNU faces off against Susquehanna, which should be a very good one. Salisbury plays against Endicott in the battle of the "Gulls". I favor the Gulls by the Sea!

Regarding Salisbury, this is a great matchup as Endicott brings a multiple style offense that can be very successful through the passing game and/or ground game. If we can win this weekend this potentially prepares Salisbury for a matchup with Johns Hopkins as they are favored against Springfield. Now not having watch much of Endicott outside of a few highlights and the Curry game a few weeks ago. Endicott can pose problems for Salisbury, I will be curious to see how Salisbury has prepared defensively, having seen some great offenses this year (CNU and Rowan) that could easily run and pass. Offensively, looking to see if there are any wrinkles or formations added over the two week span that can present challenges for a talented defensive Endicott unit that has been playing very well and compliments their offense really well. Endicott special teams is also a very exciting squad as they have had multiple special team touchdowns from returns, blocks, etc. Endicott is also not afraid to take chances as they have gone for 4th down conversions at a high clip and are very successful. There kickoff unit also forces opponents to prepare for onside each time as they present an onside maneuver each time they have a kickoff. Salisbury will have to be prepared for the unexpected as having two weeks rather than one week to prepare for the triple/spread option will potentially pose some challenges as Endicott has the "CNU" film, the only game Salisbury has loss this season. If Salisbury offense continues its high clip, the game will come down to Endicott offense versus Salisbury Defense and who can make the key Special teams play. 
#6
Quote from: unionpalooza on November 22, 2025, 07:25:47 PMA tough way to end the year for Union. Heck of a football game to watch, and both teams battled hard. In the end, the difference was a two-minute stretch where the backup threw a deep pick that was returned to the 9, followed by a quick TD, on the one series Patch couldn't get on to the field. A lot of tough what-ifs with this one, but you've to turn the page.  It was a great year.

Having made the trip to Allentown, it was shocked by how poor the Mules' facilities were.  Bleachers seemed old and beat up, leaf debris all over the field, practice equipment piled up behind and around the visitors benches, and worst of all, the "visitors locker room" was just a hallway in their athletics building with some black curtain panels blocking off the ends.  A total joke. And a violation of the tournament hosting rules, I presume.  F*cking ridiculous.

They are still using that black curtain that allow fans to "chirp" at you while you are getting dressed and in and out to stadium.
#7
General football / Re: D3 Playoffs
November 22, 2025, 07:42:35 PM
Quote from: D3Navy on November 22, 2025, 02:26:25 PMComplete video failure by ESPN today.  Ridiculous.

Yes, it was ESPN requirements, but the schools signed up indicating that they had the capabilities. No way you wait until Saturday to run test runs. It is unacceptable my the host schools and yes, I'm still upset that ESPN asked for schools to have multiple cameras and views that weren't AI, etc.
#8
Congratulations to the 3 NJAC Programs that are playing in the post-season. Rowan will play Utica in an ECAC bowl, while both Salisbury and CNU are competing in the National Playoff. To be one of the few teams that are playing is a testament to the programs. Many programs do not even exist anymore  ;)  and it is a special time to be alive and kicking.

Looking at the bracket, there is a good chance that both Salisbury and CNU face each other in the Quarterfinals for a rematch. However, there appears to be some very good teams that both CNU and Salisbury will have to get through. Salisbury faces a talented Endicott team that is no stranger in playing Top 15 teams, the way Endicott blitzed Curry after the 17-17 tie was a sight to see. CNU with a potential rematch against Susquehanna and a hot W&J is not a easy draw. However, I think both teams are more than capable of getting past the "2nd" round.
#9
General football / Re: D3 Playoffs
November 15, 2025, 09:12:55 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 15, 2025, 09:03:33 PMNow that we know (most likely) who the field is, can anyone do the calculations to see what would it have looked like had the refs not made the controversial call in OT of the Hope-Alma game back in week 4?

Currently Hope is Pool C at 9-1 and seeded #17 while Alma is Pool A at 8-2 and seeded #24. Had the call gone the other way Hope would be 10-0 and certainly hosting round 2 but could they have reached a top 8 seed? Alma would be 7-3 and would they drop out and let fellow Region 4 team Ohio Northern in?

Hope may still host because of regionality. I believe had Hope been 10-0, they'd been a Top 8 seed or no less than 3 seed. Alma most likely would be out, probably drops UW-RF to #7 seed. Definitely getting Ohio Northern into the field.
#10
General football / Re: Bracket Projection - 2025
November 15, 2025, 08:44:37 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 15, 2025, 08:31:54 PM
Quote from: MRMIKESMITH on November 15, 2025, 08:20:18 PMFinal Projected Bracket - Bracket Projection

I tried to avoid conference matchups between the Opening round and 2nd round. The NCAA is not obligated to do this for the "2nd" round. I also tried to avoid in season out of conference rematches through the opening round and 2nd round as well. There are teams that probably deserved home games, however due to teams being on an island and historical data, I didn't avoid those type of scenarios (i.e. West Coast and Texas Hubs). Let me know everyone thoughts.

NCC and Bethel are 4/5 in NPI and will be in a quad together.

Updated. Thanks!
#11
Looks like CNU moved to the overall #3 seed, most likely avoiding Mount and North Central until the National Championship. Salisbury finished at #13 which is the top #4 seed. So both teams will have their first playoff game at home, while CNU will host until the Semi-finals with a possible trip to Wartburg.

Salisbury will most likely play a PA school (Eastern, Susquehanna, etc...)
#12
General football / Re: Bracket Projection - 2025
November 15, 2025, 08:20:18 PM
Final Projected Bracket - Bracket Projection

I tried to avoid conference matchups between the Opening round and 2nd round. The NCAA is not obligated to do this for the "2nd" round. I also tried to avoid in season out of conference rematches through the opening round and 2nd round as well. There are teams that probably deserved home games, however due to teams being on an island and historical data, I didn't avoid those type of scenarios (i.e. West Coast and Texas Hubs). Let me know everyone thoughts.
#13
Looking at current brackets and projected brackets, here are teams that Salisbury and CNU could potentially play in the first 2 rounds.

Salisbury (#3/#4/#5/#6) - Cortland, Endicott, Eastern, Union, F&M, Muhlenberg, Springfield, John Carroll, Susquehanna, W&J, Grove City, and Curry
CNU (#1/#2) - R-MC, Muhlenberg, F&M, Eastern, W&J, Susquehanna, Grove City, Chapman (travel bracket), Willamette (travel bracket).

CNUs 3rd Quarterfinal game will probably require a flight from or to many of the potential 1 to 2 seeds, unless its a team aforementioned or potential game with Mount, Johns Hopkins. Many of the other #1/#2 seeds can not get to CNU by bus.

Salisbury will most likely face a Hopkins or Mount Union in the S16 if they were to win their 2nd round matchup.
#14
Quote from: jknezek on November 10, 2025, 09:52:50 AMYeesh. That's an ugly end to a pair of ugly seasons. Those bottom 3 ODAC schools were putrid. I understand frustrations get bad at this point of a bad season, but it's not like either team has had any success recently. Guilford hasn't won more than 3 games in a season since 2017, and 2018 was the last time they won 2 ODAC contests in a year. Averett, in 4 years in the conference, has not won more than 2 ODAC contests, though they were 5-5 in 2023. But 2019 was the last time they were over .500, and that was in the USASAC.

I hope Roanoke and Bridgewater choose to play each other to fill in the gap. Roanoke went on the road and won 24-14 earlier this year. Wouldn't be a bad thing to replay that one and give both teams the final game they earned. Bridgewater isn't as bad as their record, couple of really close losses to Stephenson, Shenandoah and W&L, and the big win over H-SC shows the season wasn't a blowout, and Roanoke, as a new program, should be interested in playing another game for experience.

Could Roanoke and Bridgewater try for ECAC?
#15
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2025, 01:02:54 PMThx.
HSU looks to be on the road (and some place very cold) for Quarterfinals if they get there.

As of today (not projected), they'd be in the Berry bracket and Berry is matched up with Johns Hopkins as Hopkins is the overall #1 and Berry is #8. Maryland can get cold, but could be 55 around noon.